Mixed reactions in Libya for Presidency Council's head Faiez Serraj's call for elections next March

                                                       Faiez Serraj head of Presidential Council
  
Recently as part of his road map for peace,  head of the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of  National Accord,  Faiez Serraj, said that there should be parliamentary and presidential elections next March. I discuss the entire road map in a recent article. While there has been strong support from some of the members of the High State Council of the GNA for Serraj's proposal, the House of Representatives members have been largely negative.

The speaker of the HoR Ageela Saleh dismissed the proposal in spite of the fact that he himself had called for elections next year. Saleh objects that Serraj has no legal powers to make such a call as he has not been appointed to such a role by the HoR. The HoR has not yet recognized the GNA in any event so naturally Serraj will be regarded as not having the status to call an election.

Ziyad Daghim, a member of the HoR from Benghazi said that Serraj's call for elections was fanciful and contradictory. He pointed out that for such an election to take place a two-thirds vote in favor of such action by the HoR would be required. In the present circumstances Daghim thought this impossible. Another member from Benghazi Essam al-Jahanni claimed the elections were a "sugar-coated bomb" that was aimed at Haftar's Libyan National Army that would lead the company to disaster.

Another HoR member, Abu Bakr Buera claimed that the proposal was unworkable. He said the proposal would soon be forgotten. He said that proposal showed that earlier efforts at conciliation by the UAE and others to mediate between Serraj and Haftar had failed. Buera claimed that to resolve the crisis joint efforts by the HoR, PC, and armed forces were required. Presumably he means Haftar's Libyan National Army by the "armed forces". Other HoR members claimed that security conditions made elections impossible for now. Some saw the proposal as coming from the Muslim Brotherhood, a group reviled by those loyal to Haftar. One of the few HoR members who praised the plan was Mohamed Raied from Misrata who called the plan excellent.

The elections would have repercussions for the HoR as there would be legislative elections but the members of  State HIgh Council would remain safe in their seats. This might explain why most members supported Serraj's plan. However, some members such as Nuri Elabbar who was former head of the High National Elections Committee did have concerns about the security situation making free elections difficult if not impossible. He noted that security would need to be guaranteed and well funded. Local organizations would have to cooperate in facilitating the elections. As with members of the HoR, Elabbar had concerns about the legitimacy of  holding the vote asking: Would it come from a vote to amend the Constitutional Declaration by the HoR? Was it based on the authority of the Libyan Political Agreement? And would the State Council have to be involved in the decision? He had no answer for his own questions.

Aref Nayed, of the Libyan Institute for Advanced Studies, and former Libyan ambassador to the UAE welcomed the call for elections but said they should occur in five months time on the 17th of December. In a letter to the new Libyan special envoy, Ghassan Salame, Nayed said that fresh elections would renew the legitimacy of  Libya's legislative and executive institutions. However, he claimed, some of the proposals in the Serraj's road map would prevent polls from actually taking place.

Nayad proposes that the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, along with the Arab League and the African Union, help organize parliamentary and presidential election by the 17th of December. He  sets this date because this is the deadline Haftar set for a political solution and is the date upon which he claims the Libya Political Agreement expires. The elections avoid a political vacuum. Others do not think the time period for the agreement begins until the HoR accepts the political agreement. It is not clear that either the HoR or the PC and GNA would accept these arrangements. Many would see the elections as being organized by outsiders to satisfy their interests. After all the talk of the LPA being the basis for any agreement this plan appears to be a substitution for an LPA that expires!

UN convoy ambushed in Libya but members now safe

(June 29)The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) members whose convoy was ambushed near the town of Al-Zawiya are understood to be free and in a safe place.

The details of what exactly happened remain unclear. However UNSMIL head Martin Kobler thanked the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and also House of Representative (HoR) from nearby Al-Zawiya as well as local authorities for helping to ensure the safety of the UN staff. Sources told the Libya Herald that UN members were human resource specialists who were visiting the Department for Combating Illegal Migration (DCIM) in Sorman. UN officials had kept back from making any statements until they were sure that all their personnel and their guards were out of danger.

A tweet by Martin Kobler said: "Criminal attacks on @UN & others working to support #Libya is deplorable. Perpetrators must B brought to #justice.No #impunity for offenders."A UN tweet said: ".@UN welcomes #GNA's decision to investigate the attack on UN convoy, yesterday. Perpetrators must be identified & held accountable."

The five-car UN convoy carrying 13 UN staff was attacked at Farouk Bridge checkpoint. The third vehicle in the convoy was hit by an RPG. The fourth and fifth vehicle were able to turn around and head for Tunisia, while the first vehicle sped on to Tripoli. The second vehicle stopped and helped their colleagues out of the damaged vehicle. All seven were taken to a place of safety by locals where the GNA made arrangements to bring them back to Tripoli. A dozen security guards were also involved.

Kobler claimed that there were no injuries even though photos, circulating in social media, said to be one of the UNSMIL vehicles shows severe damage to the right-hand side of the SUV and bullet impacts on two shatter-proof side windows. A UNSMIL spokesperson said that she could not make any statement on the circumstances until those who had been involved were debriefed. One report claimed two people had been injured.

The Libya Observer also reported on the incident, quoting local sources from Al-Zawiya city as saying four men and two women were released after being held on Wednesday evening for hours by an armed group. The sources said:"The armed group was persuaded into letting the UN staffers go without any harm and any further escalation; and they are fine and will be flown back to Tripoli." The source said that elders, municipal members, and other notables from Al-Zawiya city convinced the gunmen to set their captives free without satisfying any demands from them. Local security sources also said :"The car that attacked the UNSMIL convoy by small arms was for someone called Ali Al-Kardmin, who is a Dignity Operation-linked fighter." These same sources said that the attack was in retaliation for the arrest of some of the attacking group by the Special Deterrent Force based in Tripoli. Apparently, the aim of the armed group was to trade the UNSMIL staffers for their arrested fighters. Al-Zawiya city has been witnessing clashes between groups linked to Haftar's Dignity Operation and others linked to Libyan Revolutionaries Operations Room.

Key members from rival Libyan governments meet in Rome

Ageelah Saleh, president of the House of Representatives (HoR) based in the east in Tobruk, and Abdulrahman Sewehli head of the State Council of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) met in Rome to work on resolving the Libyan crisis.

A statement from the State Council claimed that "there was an atmosphere of friendliness and openness" during the meeting.

The council statement also said that there would have to be more talks between the two sides to bring about reconciliation. The HoR and the associated government in the east is a rival to the GNA in the west. The HoR has refused to far to vote confidence in the Government of National Accord based in Tripoli as required by the Libya Political Agreement. The GNA is recognized by the UN and many governments as the sole legitimate government of Libya. The GNA was last rejected by the HoR on August 22nd last year. At the time, ten days was allowed for a new cabinet to be presented. There has been virtually no progress since then towards that end.

The HoR is now demanding changes be made to the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) before it will vote confidence in the GNA. According to the Libya Herald, the changes can be made only through a joint team from the HoR and the State Council and it sees the meeting between the two as a potential breakthrough. The paper also claims that both the HoR and the State Council need to appoint members for their team to join in a dialogue meeting to discuss the changes. One would think that any changes to the LPA would need to be approved by the members of the dialogue who originally signed the agreement. Both Saleh and Sewehli thanked the Italian foreign minister Angelino Afano for sponsoring the meeting.

Later comments on TV from Saleh indicate that the meeting was not meant to deal with Sewehli as an official but as an ordinary Libyan national and a boycotting member of the HoR. Saleh said: "The HCS is not legitimate as it has not been included in the constitutional declaration as per the Libyan Political Agreement." It is not clear why a meeting with an ordinary citizen needs to be arranged through a high Italian official. Saleh also said that the HoR choosing a new dialogue team had zero relevance to the meeting that took place in Rome. Saleh mentioned that he did not attend the session of the HoR in which the team was formed. One wonders, if the meeting that chose the dialogue members was even legitimate since the head of the HoR apparently did not call it and was not there. Saleh said: "I have always been a subject for bitter criticism by my opponents for my clear bias to the military and police institutions." Saleh is a strong supporter of the commander of the HoR forces Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Saleh said that the authority of the Commander in Chief had been given to Haftar and that he had to always be informed about intelligence classified information. But this is true only of Haftar's relation to the HoR government not the GNA. The Presidential Council under terms of the LPA has the function of commander in chief of the armed forces. Saleh further added: "Haftar should have a representative at the Presidential Council and the military must be inclusive of all Libyans." The meeting between the two hardly represents a breakthrough. The Italian government arranged the meeting because the two were important officials in the two competing groups. However, Saleh's statements simply deny that Sewehli represents a legitimate body. The meeting hardly represents an essential beginning of a comprehensive reconciliation process. The situation is as confused and unresolved as ever.

The HoR met earlier and set preconditions to return to the UN-sponsored political dialogue. At a recent meeting in Tobruk 60 HoR members voted in favor of resuming the dialogue if certain conditions were met. President Saleh said that the preconditions must be included in the political agreement. Among the demands are that article 8 that gives the PC the function of Supreme Commander of the Libyan armed forces be deleted. This would pave the way for Field Marshal Haftar to keep that role as Saleh has demanded for some time. This demand has little chance of being accepted by the PC or the State Council,

The HoR has at last announced a new 24 member Political Dialogue Committee after being delayed by divisions within the HoR membership. This group is expected to be part of a renegotiation of the LPA signed in December 2015 in Skhirat Morocco. The chair of the group is Abdulasalam Nasia from Zintan. There are 21 males and 3 females in the committee. The decree forming the committee charges them with abiding by "the national constants" stated in HoR resolution No. 4 for 2017. These national constants are the preconditions set for taking part in the dialogue and as noted earlier include the deletion of section 8 allowing Haftar to remain as commander in chief of the armed forces. It is hard to understand why the dialogue would go ahead when at least one precondition is quite unlikely to be accepted by the PC or State Council. No date has been set for a meeting of the dialogue members. One precondition set by the HoR is that the dialogue take place in Libya.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/politics/op-ed-rivals-from-competing-libyan-governments-meet-in-rome/article/491073#ixzz4h7LBapaU

Libyan House of Representatves fails to agree on new Dialogue members team

The House of Representatives (HoR) the legislature of the Tobruk-based Al-Thinni Libyan government has failed to agree on a new team of representatives to send to the Libya Dialogue.

The HoR is a rival of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). The Libya Dialogue is to meet to suggest amendments to the Libya Political Agreement (LPA) designed to ensure that the HoR government will vote confidence in the GNA and amend the constitutional declaration of 2011 as required by the LPA.

A session of the HoR attended by just 114 of the 200 members was suspended after a stormy session until tomorrow. Saleh Lughma spokesperson for the HoR said there were different points of view. While there was an agreement on five team members from the east there was no agreement on the five members each from the west and the south The HoR does not control much of the west and also has minimal control over parts of the south of the country. There are understood to be informal talks happening overnight.

The Libya Observer also reported on the Monday meeting, with much more detail, claiming that chaos erupted after the HoR failed to choose a new dialogue team. Faraj Hashem an MP accused the parliamentary speaker Ageela Saleh of acting unilaterally: “The parliament speaker is trying to impose his opinion on other MPs." The session was broadcast on TV. Saleh wanted the selection on a regional basis to be made by him rather than by election. causing anger among some MPs. Saleh rejected the election choice saying: “The Presidency of the parliament is the one that is entitled to select the new team and the speaker of the parliament is the one who represents the parliament in and outside Libya." The discussion of the selection of the new dialogue members was put on the agenda Saleh said only to hear the opinions of MPs on the subject.

MP's loyal to eastern commander Khalifa Haftar wanted the group to be made up of those who reject the LPA. It is unlikely that the UN which sponsors the Dialogue and I understand controls who will belong within the Dialogue would not accept such members but I could be wrong. One would think that the Dialogue should consist of all those who originally signed the Dialogue as changes are being suggested to the document they signed. Although there were members of the HoR government and the rival Salvation government who signed the LPA at Skhirat in December of 2015, none were delegated to sign as representatives of either government. The LPA requires the HoR vote confidence in the GNA before its term is supposed to start. The HoR has twice refused to vote confidence in the HoR the last time on August 22, 2016.

There had already been meetings of the Dialogue back near the end of January in Tunisia but without any members from the HoR. On the 24th of January 19 member of the Dialogue signed an agreement to accept in principle changes to the LPA:These included: to reform the Presidential Council (PC) by reducing the membership from 9 to 3; to create a new council to assume the powers of the Supreme Commander of the Libyan Army (rather than the PC holding this power); and to appoint a separate prime minister to head the Government of National Accord (GNA) cabinet (rather than the head of the PC also being the head of the GNA).The HoR was scheduled to meet on January 30th to appoint delegates and discuss the amendments but there was no quorum. There has been no report of when a new Dialogue meeting is to take place or where or what the status of the amendments supposedly already agreed to are. It is now over six months since the last rejection of the GNA and progress towards creating a new unity government with the east and field marshal Haftar included seems to be close to zero. This may not bother Haftar who appears to be strengthening his position but the GNA appears to be losing power and prestige. The GNA is even unable to put down the revival of the rival Salvation Government. There are periodic clashes of different militia groups in Tripoli that the GNA seems powerless to stop or prevent.

Cairo meeting fails to come up with solution to Libya crisis

Egyptian government attempts to mediate a peace deal between Presidency Council (PC) leader of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) Faiez Serraj and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) failed.

(February 15) The LNA is the armed forces associated with the rival government to the GNA the Al-Thinni House of Representatives (HoR) government. Haftar refused to meet with Serraj and Serraj flew back to Tripoli from Cairo. Mohamed Samir spokesperson for the Egyptian Army said that the two did agree that there should be parliamentary elections and a presidential election in February of 2018. However, the Libya Herald claims it was told by a source that although Serraj agreed to the proposal, Haftar did not. Ageela Saleh, said only that he would study the idea. Apparently the Egyptian spokesperson was manufacturing fake news!

Serraj and Haftar were supposed to join in a meeting Tuesday that would have been chaired by Egyptian president Abdel el-Sisi. Serraj waited patiently all day in his hotel while Egyptian intelligence officials pressured Haftar to accept a compromise. Obviously they did not succeed. Haftar refused to accept Serraj's plan for a three-man PC rather than the present nine. He also rejected the proposal to have the position of commander-in-chief to be held jointly by the head of the PC, the HoR, and the State Council plus a supreme military council that would include Haftar. Haftar wants to remain head of the armed forces of any new GNA.

Both sides agreed to set up a committee of 15 members each from the HoR and the State Council of the GNA to consider changes to the Libya Political Agreement(LPA). There is no mention of a meeting for the HoR to vote confidence in the GNA as is required by the LPA. Some time ago the UN envoy Martin Kobler insisted that the LPA can be amended only after the HoR accepts it as it is and votes confidence in the GNA. The Herald suggests that the failure could strain relations between Haftar and Egyptian authorities. I doubt that there will be any significant changes in Egypt's support for Haftar as Egypt sees it as in its interest to continue support for him. He also has Russia and the UAE behind him. Haftar has been consistent in his demands and his attitude towards the peace process. He thinks there is a military solution and has been constantly trying to strengthen his power as the GNA appears to weaken and even faces an attempted coup by the PM of the former Salvation Government that so far the GNA has failed to put down.

In an interview with Arabic newspaper, Serraj explained that there was no meeting between himself and Haftar in Cairo because Haftar insisted that Ageela Saleh take part in the talks, but Saleh had refused to meet Serraj. Saleh said: "The intransigence of each party has resulted in the stagnation of a political solution and has increased the suffering of the Libyan people." Saleh is already sanctioned by the US and EU for allegedly blocking a settlement of the Libyan crisis. In my opinion, Saleh simply follows whatever Haftar wants. Nevertheless, Serraj thought that dialogue would eventually find a way out and that he would announce a new way forward in the next few days. At the same time, Serraj said he doubted that any government formed in the present circumstances could gain HoR approval or public confidence. Given this assessment, it is hard to see how there can be any successful way forward.

Haftar and Saleh remain in Cairo in talks with Egyptian authorities. The former ambassador to the UAE and several boycotting members of the HoR have also been involved in talks. Tarek al-Jaroushi a member of the HoR who attended the talks said: "Seraj must return to the legitimacy of (the eastern) parliament if he really is looking for a Government of National Accord that secures the rights of all Libyans." The GNA does recognize the legitimacy of the HoR but it becomes the legislature of the GNA only once it approves the GNA.

The HoR last rejected the GNA on August 22 last year. Almost six months later there seems little progress in having the HoR and its armed forces join with the GNA. It remains to be seen if US president Trump will involve the US in this crisis.

Eastern commander Haftar vows to seize power in Libya

(February 4) According to the London-Based Alhayat newspaper, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar told the French Ambassador, Brigitte Curmi that he is intending to take power in Libya and is not ready to engage in a dialogue with his rivals.

Khalifa Haftar is commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) the armed forces of the House of Representatives (HoR) government. Neither Haftar nor the HoR government recognize the UN-brokered Government of National Accord(GNA). The HoR has yet to vote confidence in the GNA as required by the LIbyan Political Agreement (LPA). Last August 22 it voted against approving the GNA. Ever since, Martin Kobler the UN envoy the Libya and Fayez Serraj head of the Presidency Council have been attempting to find some way to accommodate Haftar and have him join the GNA. However, Haftar wants to remain head of any new Libyan National Army whereas the present LPA gives that power to the Presidency Council(PC). Many of the members of the GNA will not agree to Haftar keeping his role and some demand that he have no role at all. None of the many attempts at getting the HoR and Haftar to accept the GNA have solved this problem so far.

Curmi advised Haftar to sit down with his rivals and not use weapons but he refused. Curmi is said to have told Haftar: "If you use weapons, you will differ with France and the EU and you will fail."

The Observer also reports French sources claim that Egypt wants a solution that favors Haftar and is trying to reach a compromise with Serraj head of the PC. The Libya Observer is very much anti-Haftar. As the Observer mentions Haftar has in effect been trying to seize power from as far back as February 2014 when he appeared on TV to announce what was in effect a coup but it did not work. On the 16th of May 2014, Haftar began his Operation Dignity to rid Libya of Islamic terrorists or at least those who opposed him. These included many of the militias that support the GNA. A few days later his allies attacked and burned the parliament buildings as shown on the appended video. Haftar's operations have received support from the UAE and Egypt and he is now receiving some support from Russia although Russia is also keeping open connections with Serraj and the GNA.

The article in Arabic at Alhayat can be found here. Other sources such as the Libya Herald have yet to report on the interview. A tweet says: #Haftar said to the French Ambassador that he intends to take power in #Libya & he refused to engage in a dialogue with his rivals. According to a twitter exchange a French article gives a differing report. While the Observer is anti-Haftar his remarks conform to his actions. He has recently refused to talk with Serraj according to an article in early January in the Libya Prospect:

The source added that “they were supposed to discuss the possibility of forming a national unity government, ” but Haftar said that talks began with Al-Sarraj two and a half years ago with no concert(sic) results, and the current state of war requires fighting not policy.Haftar refused to meet with Martin Kobler as long ago as May last year. From the very beginning Haftar constantly tried to sabotage the Dialogue process. He was even threatened with sanctions by the EU at one time. He believes there is a military solution to the political crisis but the right time has not come yet. He has threatened to liberate Tripoli. Perhaps he can convince Trump that he, an American and former CIA asset who now is courting Russia, needs a green light to take over control in Libya.

The Observer report just confirms what previous facts have already indicated. However, key characters supporting the GNA such as Kobler and Serraj do not like to talk about the issue. They do not want to make it more difficult for them to accommodate Haftar They fail to realize that their task is not difficult. It is probably impossible.

Libya Dialogue members meet in Tunisia but without eastern members

(January 22) The UN-brokered Libya Dialogue met in the town of Mammamet in Tunisia to assess the progress of the Presidency Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and discuss changing parts of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA).

However, the delegation from the eastern-based rival government the House of Representatives (HoR) was absent from the meeting. According to HoR spokesperson Abdullah Bulaihak, the parliamentary deputy president Emhemed Shouaib and others were ordered not to attend by Ageela Saleh head of the HoR. Apparently Shouaib and the other members of the HoR delegation are no longer representatives of the HoR. There are unconfirmed reports that Shouaib was to fly back to Tobruk, the site of the HoR government, for consultations. Bulahaik said a new team had to be chosen and this would not happen until tomorrow at the earliest.

The members who met anyway to start deliberations decided only to ask the HoR who will be their new representatives. The discussions are about proposals that reduce the size of the Presidency Council from nine members to three as in an earlier draft of the LPA. The Presidency Council head would not also be Prime Minister but there would be a separate Prime Minister in charge of the cabinet. Apparently this structure is supported by Ageela Saleh and many members of the the HoR. It is unlikely any decision taken without HoR delegates present would be accepted by the HoR.

The members of the Libyan Dialogue must be acceptable to the UN special envoy Martin Kobler. He is unlikely to accept members whom he thinks are likely to vote for changes that he thinks may cause further divisions or other changes not acceptable to him. The HoR does not have the power to force its own choice of delegates on Kobler as membership of the Dialogue is a decision of Kobler. Names may not be the most pressing problem. Saleh wants a five-person HoR team rather than the present four. This would give the HoR more power. Another problem is that the HoR itself is not united about who should be on their team. Although Kobler did not attend today's meeting, the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) organized the meeting site, bought Dialogue members plane tickets and arranged their accommodation.

The meeting has already been postponed twice. Originally the meeting was supposed to take place in Ghadames last week. It was then set to meet in Tunis on Wednesday but was then postponed until Sunday. The proposal from the HoR for a three person Presidency Council would see a representative from each of the three regions of Libya. However, the HoR is apparently finding it difficult to decide who they should name as their representative.

According to the Libya Herald, Saleh is willing to have the present head of the PC Faiez Serraj as head of the PC which is reduced in power as well as numbers, but only so long as Khalifa Haftar remains as military chief of the Libyan National Army, elections take place for the State Council and he remains as HoR president. Some of these demands sound impossible to satisfy. According to the present LPA, the PC has the function of commander in chief. Section 8 of the present LPA demands this. There is no way many members of the GNA and the High State Council would stand for any change to the LPA that would allow Haftar to remain as commander in chief of the armed forces. In fact, some will not countenance him having any role in the GNA. In the past, Kobler has refused to allow amendments to the LPA and has claimed it could not be amended but now he claims that the LPA is not written in stone.

It is not clear why the existing members of the HoR delegation are being replaced. What is clear is that if Saleh is demanding that Haftar remain as commander of the armed forces there will likely be no agreement with other members of the Dialogue. If there is then the GNA will simply implode. The Tunisia Dialogue meetings if they ever even start are unlikely to reach any solution to the present impasse between the GNA, the HoR and Haftar.

The HoR rejected the LPA for the second time on August 22 last year. There is no sign that there has been any progress towards holding another meeting at which the HoR would amend the constitutional declaration of 2011 as required and approve a new GNA government that is presented to them.

Libya Dialogue group meets in Malta on Libya crisis

(November 10) Valetta--Today members of the Libyan Political Dialogue begin a two-day meeting whose aim is to end the political impasse in Libya and agree to the steps needed to advance the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA)

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The Libya Political Dialogue was a group of Libyan stakeholders assembled by former UN envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon. Working with the dialogue members he produced several drafts of the Liberal Political Agreement. No draft was ever agreed to by both the Salvation government parliament, the General National Congress or the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government based in Tobruk. When Martin Kobler took over as UN envoy he tried to pass the final draft through both parliaments but failed.

Kobler got around this problem by convening members of the Dialogue who supported the LPA in the Moroccan resort town of Skhirat in December of 2015. Those members signed what is known as the Skhiirat Agreement or Libyan Political Agreement. Although there were members of both parliaments present none of them had authority from their parliaments to sign. Presumably the members of the Political Dialogue referred to in the notice of meeting are some or all of those members who signed the Skhirat agreement.

The LPA requires that the HoR vote confidence in the LPA before the GNA term began. However, the GNA was actually rejected although a hundred members signed a letter supporting the GNA albeit with reservations. This led to an earlier meeting of the Political Dialogue members. In March this year they met in Tunis to discuss the GNA decision to activate itself and move to Tripoli from Tunis. Although there was some dissension the meeting was interpreted as supporting the GNA decision and the GNA moved to the naval base at Tripoli.

However, the GNA still needed the HoR to vote confidence in it before the HoR could become the legislature of the GNA under the terms of the LPA. This has never happened. In fact the HoR voted on August 22 to reject the GNA. The GNA was supposed to present a new smaller cabinet of eight members within ten days but more than two months later there is as yet no sign of a list of such members. It is not even clear that the HoR will even receive such a list and vote on it. Nothing is scheduled and no deadline has been set. The HoR wants not just a new list of cabinet members but also the deletion of a section of the LPA which makes the Presidency Council of the GNA the commander of GNA forces. The HoR and Field Marshal Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army Forces associated with the HoR, want Haftar to remain in his position. This is one of what the UNSMIL statement calls a key obstacle to the implementation of the Political Agreement. Kobler insists that only with a unified government, "the people of Libya will live with security, and basic services can be restored".

There was a second meeting of Dialogue members in July in Tunis at which the group expressed disappointment in the work of the GNA and warned that if its performance did not improve they might vote a lack of confidence in it.

Other bodies are also meeting on the Libya crisis and there is a new initiative by the African Union. A spokesperson for Khalifa Haftar, Colonel Ahmed Mesmary, said that an alternative to the Skhirat agreement was being worked out by tribal leaders in the city of Ajdabiya.

The dialogue members may be asked to amend the LPA. Kobler has constantly insisted that the LPA cannot be amended until it is passed by the HoR as it is. Perhaps, he has now changed his mind. Without amendment of the LPA, it appears quite unlikely that the HoR will vote confidence in the GNA.

Statement by UN envoy Martin Kobler on the situation in Libya

At the 9th Ministerial Meeting of Libyan Neighbouring Countries in Niamey, Niger, Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Martin Kobler, made a statement on the situation in Libya. This article comments on that statement.

The entire statement can be found on the United Nations Support Mission Libya (UNSMIL) website. Kobler describes the present situation in Libya as "delicate" and said that he was particularly worried about the situation in Tripoli saying:

Last Friday, members of the former government in Tripoli took over the premises of the High Council of State. I condemned this action. Attempts to create parallel institutions and obstruct the implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement will generate further disorder and insecurity. This standoff should not escalate into violence. It has to end peacefully.Kobler earlier issued a separate statement condemning the action.

There is no mention of the fact that the Interior Ministry had ordered that those behind the coup should be arrested. No arrests have been made five days after the coup. The coup leaders still occupy the State Council headquarters now being protected with the help of the Presidential Guards who are supposed to protect the GNA. There are already parallel institutions, including the House of Representatives(HoR) government with its separate armed forces commanded by Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Kobler does not mention that he has been trying in vain to accomodate Haftar. Haftar's name is never mentioned in the statement. The Tripoli-based National Oil Co (NOC) negotiated with the parallel NOC based in Bayda to merge the two entities. It is not clear whether this is completed or whether some aspects are still being worked out. The agreement even as it is now requires the NOC to report to the HoR a parallel institution and also to move its headquarters to Benghazi, an area controlled by the HoR. Many countries such as Egypt, UAE, Jordan and Russia give lip service to supporting the GNA as the sole government but in practice provide support to the HoR government and military aid for Haftar.

Kobler notes that the lack of willingness of the HoR to vote confidence in the HoR furthered divisions within the country and that it voted against the GNA "after 6 months and 8 days". That was on August 22. Within 10 days the GNA was supposed to present a new cabinet with just eight ministers, but almost two months later there is still no sign of the list or any date set for a meeting of the HoR.

Kobler claims, quite correctly, that there has been a lack of progress in "implementation of the Libyan security architecture as envisaged by the Libyan Political Agreement." Indeed, this might be the appropriate point to mention the defection of the Presidential Guard but he does not. Nor does he give any guidance as to how there could be better progress but simply points out that security actors operate with autonomy "leading to insecurity and an inability to create the rule of law". This is a fair enough description but what is needed is some plan to create "a common leadership and consolidation of forces".

In a realistic assessment of the situation, which is in contrast to his usual more optimistic attitude, Kobler says that the Presidency Council has been unable to provide basic services and there is a worsening economic situation. Kobler says:Daily life for Libyans is becoming more difficult. With oil production well below its potential, inflation of the Libyan Dinar is at nearly 20 percent, food prices are increasing and the lack of liquidity mean that cash is becoming scarce.

What I find strange about this description is that oil production has actually almost doubled since the seizure of four oil ports by Haftar who allowed exports to resume. Production now stands at about 550,000 barrels a day. Usually, Kobler accentuates the positive. Perhaps Kobler is miffed that his deal with Ibrahim Jadhran the head, or former head, of the Petroleum Facilities Guard who controlled the ports, was sabotaged when Haftar seized the ports.

Kobler claims that there are three main problems that need to be addressed as a matter of urgency, the fight against terrorism, illegal migration and organized crime. Some of these problems perhaps reflect priorities of other countries such as immigration for the EU and also terrorism. With the virtual defeat of the Islamic State in Sirte, terrorism appears not to be a huge problem for many Libyans. Perhaps Kobler's emphasis upon terrorism is meant in part to please Haftar who considers all those opposed to him as Islamist terrorists. The fight against terrorism is a huge issue in the west. Kobler mentions that there is progress against terrorism in Sirte and Benghazi. No mention of Haftar's siege and bombardment of Derna.

Kobler has not changed his continuing mantra that there is no military solution and that there is no alternative but forging ahead with the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA). He ignores the fact that eastern Libya already has or is nearing a military solution.

Kobler says the PC has an opportunity to create a new Government of National Accord that can address the concerns of different stakeholders. No mention of the fact that Haftar and the HoR will not accept the LPA as it is, since it gives command of the armed forces to the PC rather than Haftar. Not a word as to how that problem can be solved. Kobler thinks this is a great opportunity to create consensus. How? Why does he think this? What is his evidence that a consensus can be achieved. Nothing appears to be happening so far.

To prevent resumption of conflict Kober suggests that regional powers can support the Presidency Council which he describes as newly unified. Kobler's solution to problems is often to find cheerleaders. He then meets with them for a photo op together with a statement of support. Kobler also wants international actors to work within security council resolutions recognizing the GNA as the sole legitimate government and no doubt obeying the arms embargo. It is unlikely that those who strongly support the HoR and Haftar will pay the least attention. Why should they? Finally, Kobler suggests ways of improving border security.

There is nothing in Kobler's statement that suggests any new initiatives that could provide a way out of the political crisis and unify the two sides. There appears to be no consensus on a new cabinet within the GNA and it is clear that the HoR will not vote confidence in the GNA unless Haftar is kept as commander in chief of the armed forces or some other change to the LPA is made that Haftar approves. Kobler has often said that the LPA cannot be amended until passed. Why does Kobler think that the PC can square the circle when they had problems deciding where to meet in Libya after moving from Tunis?

Geneva meeting on Libya political crisis produces no significant results

Meetings at the ministerial level of a number of different countries in Paris to find solutions for the Libyan political crisis apparently failed to make any political progress.

Libya remains divided with two governments. The internationally-recognized UN-supported Government of National Accord(GNA) is based in Tripoli while the rival House of Representatives government (HOR) is based in the east in Tobruk. Neither the HoR nor the commanders of its armed forces Marshal Haftar recognize the GNA.

On August 22, the HoR met and decisively defeated a vote of confidence in the GNA. The GNA is supposed to have come up with a new government with just 8 ministers some time ago but that has not happened yet. There have been many meetings that have attempted to find a role in a new GNA that Haftar will accept. He seems to have little interest in unifying with the GNA and has been quite critical of attempts by the UN envoy Martin Kobler to create a mechanism by which he could be accomodated. Haftar has complained that Kobler is meddling unhelpfully in Libyan affairs. Haftar also has a quite negative attitude to the GNA, especially many of the militia which support it. He is quite unwilling to serve in armed forces with the Presidential Council (PC) of the GNA as commander in chief.

The Paris meeting was hosted by the French government. There were representatives from Egypt, Germany, Italy, Quatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, UAE, UK and the USA. Martin Kobler UN Special Envoy, and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini were also present. However, the Arab League protested that it had not been invited. The Egyptians sent only a low-level delegation to the meeting. No Libyans were invited in spite of the fact the meeting was all about Libya.

French officials claim that the failure to invite Libyans was in part a result of the rapid organization of the event but also because the aim was to draw outside support for the PC and the GNA. French Foreign Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, said: “I took this initiative on behalf of France because we want the government of national accord of Mr Sarraj to succeed."

The assembled group did agree that any future GNA should give a role to Khalifa Haftar. The Egyptian delegation called for the international arms embargo to be lifted. The Egyptians want Haftar to be provided with arms legally by foreign supporters such as Egypt, the UAE, and perhaps Russia. There appears to have been no statement released at the end of the meetings or at least it has not been published as yet. Given the purpose of the meeting, one would think that there would be a statement issued expressing support for the GNA and its attempt to move forward with the Libyan Political Agreement as well as supporting the UN resolutions on the GNA and the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA)

Tweets seem to be uniformly negative about the meeting. One said: "Paris meeting about libya finished interestless after an disagreements btwn The involved countries in the libyan affairs @UNSMILibya". Another was just as negative: "Paris meeting on #Libya crisis today a damp squib by all accounts. Few high-level figures. Some key meddlers only sent ambs resident in FR" Another said that a new GNA was being worked out at a meeting in Jordan: "Paris meeting failed Alghwil & altinni now in jordan to form new Gov , & dissolve GNA." This seems highly improbable.

Apparently Libyan Marshal Haftar did not ask Russia for arms

Near the end of September there were reports that Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar had requested Russia to provide direct military support for his operations against terrorists. However, the reports were later denied by Haftar sources.

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Haftar is commander of the Libyan National Army(LNA) the armed forces associated with the Al-Thinni government of the House of Representatives based in Tobruk. Haftar had visited Russia in late June A report claimed that a Haftar representative, Abdel Badri, met recently with Russian officials according to a diplomatic source close to the situation: "The meeting really did take place. Badri came to Moscow for one day. During talks with Bogdanov, they discussed the issue of lifting the embargo on arms supplies. Libyans are asking us to send them small arms, but also equipment, including planes. Also, they asked Moscow to start an anti-Islamist military operation in Libya that is similar to the one in Syria."

However, a source , said to be close to Haftar, said that the envoy's mission had "nothing to do with arms deliveries" and had no special message. This would not have been the first time that the eastern-based HoR had asked for Russian help. Last year PM Abdullah al-Thinni had said that he would welcome Russian aid in operations against the Islamic State. Russian columnist Sergei Ishchenko said that some Libyans were trying to draw Russia into a senseless war. He describes the war in 2011 with the NATO attacks and support of anti-Gadaffi rebels as senseless. Russia actually supported the UN resolution for a No-Fly zone allegedly to protect civilians but the actions of NATO went far beyond what Russia had envisioned.

Ischenko said the present Libyan situation was a mess "where tribes whose loyalties are unclear slaughter one another, storming government buildings and burning international airports. Daesh militants hang out out in the open in government dachas of the Gaddafi government and prepare for new battles in Syria. A countless stream of refugees from all across Africa race endlessly to Europe, while Europeans argue in confusion about who is to blame for the crisis." "And it's definitely not Russia," Ishchenko stressed. "But we are the ones being called to clean someone else's dirty military and political laundry…"

Ischenko sees no good reason for Russia to be involved with Syria. Russia alreads has more than enough on its plate trying to sort out the situation in Syria. Ischenko suggests that those who are responsible for the present situation such as the US and France should help sort out Libya's problems not Russia. While Ischenko said Russia should support the efforts of other countres to stablize the country, it should not get involved itself. He praised the US bombing of Sirte to help Libyan forces defeat the Islamic State. Ischenko said that Russia was not anxious to be involved in any further anti-terrorist operations especially with someone such as Haftar who he points out is widely believed to be a CIA agent.

Perhaps, Ischenko is correct that Russia does not want to get directly or deeply involved in Libya, certainly not with troops on the ground. Nevertheless, it is clear that Russia is trying to develop relations with the HoR and Haftar as a means of increasing its power in Africa and no doubt creating good relations with Egypt, the UAE and other supporters of Haftar. Since Russia also gives lip service to supporting the Government of National Accord GNA as the sole Libyan government it is not likely to provide arms in any open manner but will continue to claim support for the arms embargo that would not allow Russia to legally provide arms to Haftar.

No quorum as Libyan House of Representatives meets to vote confidence in Government of National Accord

As has happened many times before, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) met today but lacked a quorum and so was unable to vote confidence in UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

A confidence vote by the HoR is required under the terms of the Libya Political Agreement (LPA). The HoR has met many times before to try and hold a vote. Every meeting has lacked a quorum except for two, in which there was a quorum but no vote because the meetings were disrupted.

A week ago on Monday, there was also a meeting called by speaker Ageela Salah, but not nearly enough showed up for a quorum nor did enough show up the next day. An informal meeting was held to discuss issues. A Libya Oberver report claims: Serraj and the GNA are not yet recognized by the HoR, however, the international community recognize Serraj and his GNA as the sole legitimate government of Libya, but also recognize that the HoR is the only legitimate legislature in Libya.The GNA recognizes the HoR only as a vehicle to vote confidence in the GNA and amend the constitutional declaration of 2011. I do not think that it recognizes the HoR as a legislature that can pass laws for all of Libya since it is not yet part of the only recognized government, the GNA. Once the HoR votes confidence in the GNA etc. then it will become the only legitimate legislature. The mandate of the HoR actually ran out last October but it simply extended its mandate itself in an illegal move.

The meeting this Monday again lacked a quorum. Instead an informal meeting was held to review internal regulations and challenges facing the legislature. There were reportedly less than 20 members present. The speaker Ageelah Salah had called on members to attend the session. Almost all the members were from the east. Some suggested that more will turn up tomorrow. However, it is unlikely that there will be enough for a quorum.

Even though a majority of members are said to agree to the GNA in principle they refuse to show up and force Salah to hold a vote. Yet Salah is under sanction by the EU for blocking the progress of implementing the LPA.. While he might be blamed for the 2 meetings where there was obstruction, it is hard to see why he should be held responsible when people simply do not show up. The Libya Herald says: Numerous members, particularly from the west, are refusing to go to Tobruk until there is a session to vote on the Government of National Accord (GNA). There have also been complaints of ill-treatment and intimidation in Tobruk of pro-GNA members.The meeting last week was specifically called to vote on the GNA and the required amendment to the constitutional declaration but not enough members showed for a quorum. Yet Salah appears still to get the blame. Forty members meeting in Tripoli two days ago said they would go if there was a session allowing a vote free of intimidation. That is not likely enough for a quorum. What sort of legislature will the HoR be as part of the GNA if it cannot even ensure that any votes will be free of intimidation or that a vote can even be held?

Martin Kobler, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) seems to have no idea what to do force a vote on the GNA by the HoR. At one time, there was a plan to hold a meeting in Ghadames with only members attending who supported the GNA on principle but for some reason the meeting never happened. Kobler will probably say nothing but will be busy hatching some new scheme, probably one that will bypass the LPA and gather together just members of the HoR who support the GNA. However, even those who support the GNA in principle also want assurances that General Haftar stays on as the commander in chief of the Libyan National Army. It is not clear at all how Kobler could allow that, given that the LPA states that the Presidential Council (PC)l is the commander in chief until a new one is appointed. The PC has already claimed that power in setting up a unified command for GNA forces.

Deputy president of HoR clarifies decisions made a Cairo meeting

Emhemed Shouaib, Deputy House of Representatives (HoR) president, issued a statement clarifiying what was agreed upon at a recent meeting in Cairo between himself another deputy president and Ageela Salah the president of the HoR.

Shouaib noted that there had been considerable speculation on what had been agreed to both on regular and social media indicating outcomes that went far beyond what was actually agreed to at the meeting. The Libya Herald says the Cairo meeting was seen as pivotal in keeping progress towards implementing the Libya Political Agreement on track.The paper claims this is especially so after the controversial meeting of the State Council last week which the Herald notes many see as premature and unconstitutional.

Shouaib said:"In view of what is being wrongly broadcast in some media and shared on social media regarding the meeting that took place in Cairo between House of Representatives (HoR) president Ageela Salah, Second Deputy president Hameed Homa and myself, I would like to clarify what was agreed upon and presented at the ensuing Cairo press conference’’.

Shouaib detailed a five-point agenda that would be put to the HoR next week He did not specify a specific date. Some reports indicate that the latest the HoR would convene for a vote was April 18th which is next Monday.

The first item on the agenda was a vote of confidence in the proposed ministers of the GNA. Shouaib did not indicate whether the vote would be for all together or each separately as some have suggested. The second item was to make the appropriate amendment to the Transitional Constitutional Declaration of 2011. The GNC meeting at Tripoli also made such an amendment before it dissolved although many doubt that it could do so. Third, the head of the UN Support MIssion in Libya was to call a meeting of the Libya Dialogue Committee to discuss recent events. In particular the claim that the State Council was officially constituted at the recent meeting in Tripoli. He, Salah and the other deputy all consider the meeting a violation of the LPA under article 64. In Kobler's press release on the meeting, he makes no mention of any meeting of the Dialogue Committee to consider the issue of the State Council. Fathi Bashagha, an HoR member who has been boycotting meetings said that a meeting of the Dialogue Committee to discuss the formation of the State Council could worsen the crisis. We will see what happens on Thursday. If it does not happen there could be a negative reaction from the HoR which could perhaps sabotage the planned meeting for next week.

The fourth item on the agenda would be to denounce the sanctions issued by the EU against Ageela Salah president of the HoR and a demand to work on lifting them. There is no mention of the sanctions against two officials of the rival General National Congress. Again, Kobler makes no mention of this issue in his release. Finally there is a general demand that the Presidency Council/GNA consult with the leadership of the HoR. Perhaps this demand comes as a result of the recent meeting that formed the State Council. Apparently, the HoR was not consulted about it. We should know later this week if there will be progress towards having the HoR vote confidence in the GNA or if there will be a continuing crisis.

Libyan National Army commanders gather in Marj Libya for discussions with commander in chief General Haftar

Libyan armed forces commanders from the east, south, and west are all gathered in Marj, the headquarters of commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA), General Khalifa Haftar.

Commanders and Haftar are discussing events in Libya since the arrival of the UN-brokered Presidency Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA). Seven of the nine Council members are headquartered at a naval base adjacent to Tripoli. Those at the meeting included Colonel Idris Madi who heads the LNA western Operations Room. Brigadier-General Abdussalam Al-Hassi briefed Madi about events in Benghazi who heads local operations there.

While no statement is expected from the meeting, army sources told the Libya Herald that the aim was to rally the armed forces behind the president of the House of Representatives (HoR), Ageela Saleh. Saleh is sanctioned by the EU. The group does not want any of its forces working with PM Serraj and the GNA until there is formal approval of the GNA by a vote in the HoR. The GNA and the international community have declared itself in power despite no formal vote.The GNA claims a letter from an alleged majority of the HoR approving the GNA and the support of the Libya Dialogue and the international community is enough for the GNA to be operational. This LNA support for the HoR's position that there needs to be a formal vote of confidence no doubt helped Kobler decide that maybe there does need to be a formal vote as his recent statements suddenly claim. At the meeting, apparently, were members of the Zintani military leaders opposed to the GNA who are alleged to claim that the GNA is controlled by Misrata and the Muslim Brotherhood. While there are members of both in the GNA, it is hard to explain why the GNA has not taken over as commander in chief as required by the LPA in section 8, if they control the GNA.

A top Haftar commander said: “We have the parliament [the HoR] and they are responsible for the politics. We are not interested in politics. We only care about fighting Daesh in Sirte and different places”. Haftar's forces are fighting opponents of Daesh in Derna apparently. The commander said that the LNA would "clear out" not only Sirte, but Misrata and Tripoli after Benghazi was liberated. The aim is completely counter to that of the GNA. It is the aim of Haftar's Operation Dignity to clear out all Islamists from Libya including those supporting the rival GNC. When the commander was asked how the LNA could enter Tripoli he said "we have army contacts, but not militias. They will appear at the right time." The Herald claims that Haftar is known to oppose the GNA but he has not so far made any public announcement on the issue. His motto appears to be to stay silent and carry a big stick.

Haftar has been talking with the most important players:Yesterday, however, he and two of his main commanders, Major General Saqr Geroushi and Colonel Wanis Bukhamada held talks in Marj with HoR President Ageela Saleh. While in the town, Saleh also met with Hafter’s political ally, boycotting Presidency Council member Ali Gatrani, as well as Cyrenaican tribal leaders, mayors and members of the HoR, and together insisted there would be no dealings with the Presidency Council and the GNA until it was approved by the HoR.

This was followed by a meeting of members of the HoR and important officials who said that the GNA was not legitimate until formally approved by the HoR and if its demand were not met, including keeping Haftar as commander in chief, Cyrenaica could separate. There has also been a demand that the Presidency Council go to Tobruk and present the new government to the HoR. According to the Herald there are reports this is to happen. When it does the meeting will be crucial to what happens next in Libya.