If HoR does not vote confidence in GNA, UN may make an illegal move

Although no regular news media are yet reporting on what is happening, it appears that the planned meeting of the Libyan House of Representatives on April 18 may not take place.

The meeting was planned for the House of Representatives (HoR) to provide a vote of confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) and also to amend the constitutional declaration of 2011. The meeting was to take place no later than April 18. Not too long ago the president of the HoR, together with two of the deputy presidents, met in Cairo to discuss the way forward. Afterwards, Emhemed Shouaib issued a statement clarifying what had been decided at the meeting.

Shouaib noted that part of the agreement was for the HoR to meet and vote on the GNA and the constitutional amendment. However, there were several other points as well including a meeting of the Libya Dialogue Committee on Thursday which appears not to have happened: Third, the head of the UN Support MIssion in Libya was to call a meeting of the Libya Dialogue Committee to discuss recent events. In particular the claim that the State Council was officially constituted at the recent meeting in Tripoli. He, Salah and the other deputy all consider the meeting a violation of the LPA under article 64.The meeting also agreed to denounce the sanctions imposed by the EU on the president of the HoR, Ageela Salah.

Martin Kobler, the UN Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG), in his press release on the meeting of the three, made no mention of the sanctions or any meeting of the Dialogue Committee. It appears not to have happened. However, Kobler did say:“The House of Representatives remains central to the political process and to the implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind about this,” stated Martin Kobler.

Yet just today, Kobler issued a tweet clearly indicating that if the HoR does not vote on GNA he will consider other ways of proceeding and seek the advice of the Dialogue Committee. Nothing at all about the formation of the State Council or seeking advice about that issue:To @skynewsarabia: if HoR didn't vote on the GNA, I intend to convene the Libyan Political Dialogue to seek their advice on how to proceedThe tweet may be intended as a threat to force the HoR to vote on the GNA but it could be a threat that he carries out should the HoR not vote. He did this before when the HoR did not vote confidence in the GNA. He called together the Dialogue whom he claims gave him the green light for the GNA to be declared operational and move to Tripoli. He also referred to a letter by an alleged majority of the HoR in which they affirm their support for the GNA. There was never any formal vote on the issue.

When the rival General National Council (GNC) did not support the GNA and the president Abusahmain did not submit a list of members of the State Council as required by the Libyan Political Agreement, the UN simply avoided that requirement. Makhzoum, who supported the GNA and signed the agreement, drew up a list of members that was accepted by the UN and GNA. They held a meeting in Tripoli. At first they met as the GNC, passed motions approving the GNA and amending the constitutional declaration and then dissolved the GNC, becoming the State Council. The same type of action could happen again as I suggested in a recent article with the part of the HoR that supports the GNA pretending to be the Tobruk HoR.

Instead of more fruitless attempts to pass a motion through the HoR, Kobler can just gather together members of the HoR who approve the GNA in Tripoli. There they can pass the required vote of confidence and constitutional amendment and then become the legislature of the HoR leaving the Tobruk HoR isolated and probably without any funds coming from the Central Bank.

Another sign, that there will be no vote of confidence in the GNA is the fierce criticism of Kobler and the GNA of Faiez Serraj by Ageela Salah the president of the HoR. It does not sound as if Salah is about to do Kobler's bidding. The failure to address the issue of the State Council will make Salah and others even angrier. The east could be planning an exit from any unity government altogether. Supporters of Haftar and the influence of former members of the Gadaffi regime are becoming stronger in the east and they will have nothing to do with any government containing Islamists or other figures who oppose them. As a recent tweet put it:Ahmed El-Gasir ‏@amelgasir 46m46 minutes ago

Return of leading figures from #Gadhafi regime & holding meetings w/ #Haftar in #al_Marj

#Libya #GNA @UNSMILibyaOf course one never knows what is going to happen in Libya. Perhaps, Kobler will be able to make some deal over the weekend and the HoR will meet and vote confidence in the GNA and approve an amendment to the constitutional declaration of 2011.

Deputy president of HoR clarifies decisions made a Cairo meeting

Emhemed Shouaib, Deputy House of Representatives (HoR) president, issued a statement clarifiying what was agreed upon at a recent meeting in Cairo between himself another deputy president and Ageela Salah the president of the HoR.

Shouaib noted that there had been considerable speculation on what had been agreed to both on regular and social media indicating outcomes that went far beyond what was actually agreed to at the meeting. The Libya Herald says the Cairo meeting was seen as pivotal in keeping progress towards implementing the Libya Political Agreement on track.The paper claims this is especially so after the controversial meeting of the State Council last week which the Herald notes many see as premature and unconstitutional.

Shouaib said:"In view of what is being wrongly broadcast in some media and shared on social media regarding the meeting that took place in Cairo between House of Representatives (HoR) president Ageela Salah, Second Deputy president Hameed Homa and myself, I would like to clarify what was agreed upon and presented at the ensuing Cairo press conference’’.

Shouaib detailed a five-point agenda that would be put to the HoR next week He did not specify a specific date. Some reports indicate that the latest the HoR would convene for a vote was April 18th which is next Monday.

The first item on the agenda was a vote of confidence in the proposed ministers of the GNA. Shouaib did not indicate whether the vote would be for all together or each separately as some have suggested. The second item was to make the appropriate amendment to the Transitional Constitutional Declaration of 2011. The GNC meeting at Tripoli also made such an amendment before it dissolved although many doubt that it could do so. Third, the head of the UN Support MIssion in Libya was to call a meeting of the Libya Dialogue Committee to discuss recent events. In particular the claim that the State Council was officially constituted at the recent meeting in Tripoli. He, Salah and the other deputy all consider the meeting a violation of the LPA under article 64. In Kobler's press release on the meeting, he makes no mention of any meeting of the Dialogue Committee to consider the issue of the State Council. Fathi Bashagha, an HoR member who has been boycotting meetings said that a meeting of the Dialogue Committee to discuss the formation of the State Council could worsen the crisis. We will see what happens on Thursday. If it does not happen there could be a negative reaction from the HoR which could perhaps sabotage the planned meeting for next week.

The fourth item on the agenda would be to denounce the sanctions issued by the EU against Ageela Salah president of the HoR and a demand to work on lifting them. There is no mention of the sanctions against two officials of the rival General National Congress. Again, Kobler makes no mention of this issue in his release. Finally there is a general demand that the Presidency Council/GNA consult with the leadership of the HoR. Perhaps this demand comes as a result of the recent meeting that formed the State Council. Apparently, the HoR was not consulted about it. We should know later this week if there will be progress towards having the HoR vote confidence in the GNA or if there will be a continuing crisis.

Critics pan GNA State Council and claim it lacks legitimacy

The State Council of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) is meeting again to establish its administrative rules.

Critics claim the Council has no legitimacy until the GNA is given a formal vote of confidence by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives. Last week, the State Council established itself as described by the Libya Herald:

Last Tuesday, several dozen members of the General National Congress (GNC) announced the approval of the LPA, the GNC dissolved and the State Council in session. They then proceeded to elect Misratan politician Abdulrahman Sewehli as president and Saleh Makhzoum, the former GNC second deputy president, as the Council’s first deputy president.

There have been protests both in Tripoli and Benghazi against the establishment of the Council. Emhemed Shouaib, deputy president of the HoR, has said the self-declared formation of the State Council is a violation of the Libya Political Agreement. He said that there would be a meeting of Libya Dialogue members this Thursday to discuss the issue.

Faithu Bashagha, a boycotting member of the HoR from Misrata, said a meeting of the Dialogue members could only complicate matters. Apparently, a meeting of the Dialogue members was appropriate when the UN wanted to have the GNA up and running, with no vote from the HoR. It helped give a green light for the GNA to declare itself born and to move to Tripoli. Bahsagha said: “Where were these voices when the HoR violated the political agreement and removed (item 8) from the appendix rules.” There is no item 8 in the appendix as far as I can find. Probably he means article 8 in the main text or article 8 of the additional provisions. These are articles that give the Presidential Council the job of commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army taking away Haftar's job. There is no way that the HoR can remove the sections as even UN representative Martin Kobler has said. What the HoR did was to approve the GNA only in principle and demanded that Section 8 be removed. Both sections are still there. The HoR does not have the power to amend the LPA. The Presidency Council has simply ignored both provisions of Section 8 continually violating the LPA. That is an issue the Dialogue members could take up.

The Libya Herald reports on the position of Makhzoum who drew up the list of the State Council and convened the meeting last Tuesday:For his part, Makhzoum has insisted that the meeting of the State Council was legitimate because at Tuesday’s meeting, the GNC had amended the Constitution and legalised the LPA. That, he claimed, in no way contradicted the HoR’s role in approving it. The State Council, he said, was committed to the LPA and the HoR was the country’s sole legislature.The list was supposed to be presented by Abusahmain, the president of the GNC, but he rejects the GNA and did not present a list. Violating the LPA, the GNA presidency — with the approval of the UN, no doubt — had Makhzoum draw up the list and approved it. There were two sections of the State Council meeting. In the first part, Makhzoum convened the group as the GNC. From the GNC point of view it is the sole legitimate legislature of Libya as the Libyan Supreme Court had ruled in November 14 that the HoR elections were unconstitutional and the HoR should be dissolved. Thus the GNC is the legitimate legislature in spite of the fact that the international community recognized only the HoR until the GNA came along. The GNC can thus legitimately amend the constitution and approve the GNA. As Makhzoum said the HoR can still approve the GNA although it seems only necessary since it will be the legislature of the GNA. Perhaps as I suggested recently, if the HoR does not sign on to the GNA soon, those favoring the GNA from the HoR will meet in Tripoli declaring themselves the HoR and pass a vote of confidence in the GNA.

In a recent article, Jason Pack also points out some of the difficulties in the formation of the State Council and some criticisms of the move. He describes the establishment of the State Council as follows: On 5 April the GNC announced its dissolution and the establishment of the State Council. On 7 April the 73 members of the GNC circumvented the HoR by ‘amending’ the constitutional declaration and electing the controversial Misratan politician Abdulrahman Sewhli as President of the SC.