Libya Political Dialogue claims to have amended the Libyan Political Agreement

(January 26) According to a report from the Libya Observer, the Libyan Political Dialogue committee agreed to six proposals amending the Libya Political Agreement (LPA) that had been agreed to by an earlier Dialogue group at Skhirat Morocco back on December 17, 2015.

The Skhirat agreement has already been twice rejected by House of Representatives (HoR) which by the LPA is required to vote confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord( GNA) set out in the LPA. The HoR government and the head of its armed forces the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, refuse to recognize the GNA and its Presidency Council (PC).

The Dialogue members are at the invitation of the UN envoy to Libya Martin Kobler. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya UNSMIL arranges accommodations and air transportation, Kobler usually calls for a Dialogue meeting when he wants to push through something not strictly in the LPA. He called the group together when he wanted the GNA to move from Tunis to Tripoli even though strictly speaking the GNA did not yet exist as an operating government, since it had not received a vote of confidence by the HoR. It still has not had such a vote and there is yet no sign of it being held although it was supposed to be ready to be held within ten days after the August 22 rejection last year.

The present meeting was twice postponed but even when it last met it was reported that representatives from the HoR were not present. The HoR was to send a new delegation. According to the Libya Observer, the HoR did not send any representatives to the meeting today at which the amendments were made.

The High Council of State (HCS) a part of the GNA composed of former members of the General National Congress and a mostly advisory body is claimed to have rejected any discussions of the reshuffling of the government members by the dialogue members. The group claims that it will only agree to discuss the issue with HoR representatives. An HCS delegate to the meeting was reported to have said: “The only legal mechanism to discuss amending the political agreement the bodies working under its authority is via an agreement between the HoR and the HCS as included in the Skhirat-signed agreement.”

Apparently, the Dialogue group agreed to include only three members in the Presidential Council rather than the present nine. Each member would be from a different part of the three main areas of Libya. In its final statement the Dialogue members said: “The Head of the Government of National Accord will be picked from outside the Presidential Council and he will be responsible for the executive authority along with the ministers.” A new council has been added that will be appointed as the Chief Commander of the Libyan Army:“The council will consist of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the Head of the High Council of State, and a member from the three members of the Presidential Council,” Decisions would be made by consensus. It seems highly unlikely that Khalifa Haftar, will agree to any such Council. He wants to remain head of the armed forces of any new government. The membership of the HCS would also be expanded. The Constitution Drafting Assembly was required to finish its work within a period of one month from the day the amendments get signed. However, the amendments are not yet signed.

The dialogue committee said that the HoR should approve the Government of National Accord before the signing takes place to ensure that the amendments will be included and dealt with seriously. Whatever makes the committee think that the HoR will vote confidence before the amendments were signed even if they accepted the amendments? What makes the committee think that the HoR will accept amendments that they had not been involved in creating? It is possible that perhaps the HoR did send a delegation at the last minute but the Libya Observer report suggests this was not the case. One would expect that if the HoR had been there, the amendment about a new council being commander of the Libyan Army would have been rejected. According to the Observer, the Presidential Council spokesperson has said that the Dialogue Committed is not entitled to amend the LPA. Perhaps that is in effect recognized by the group as they suggested that the HoR should first vote confidence in the GNA before the amendments were signed. This just appears to be another scheme dreamed up with the help of Martin Kobler, Special Representative to the Secretary General (SRSG), to try and have the HoR vote confidence in the GNA. It seems it is being attacked already by the existing GNA and is quite unlikely to be accepted by the HoR or Haftar.

An earlier report by the Libya Herald, said that the dialogue team, meeting in the Tunisian resort town of Hammamet had been unable to make any decisions because of divisions in the HoR. The members could not agree on the number of members to be nominated by the HoR to the committee. Some HoR members insisted that any changes had to first be agreed to by a committee of five HoR members and five from the High State Council of the GNA as is set forth in the LPA. They argued that the Dialogue meeting in Tunis should be ignored since they could not amend the LPA. The meeting had to be suspended until Tuesday after a row. The Herald account concludes:It is due to reconvene tomorrow, Tuesday, but there is no guarantee that HoR members will agree on a new dialogue committee, let along that some of the committee (if not all of them) will go to Hammamet and join the Libya Dialogue.The Herald claims that without the HoR new representatives turning up nothing can be done. It seems that something was done but it seems highly unlikely that HoR representatives were involved.

The Libya Express also covered the Dialogue committee meeting. The account follows closely that given by the Libya Observer but does not say that there were no HoR representatives present. Neither does it mention any criticism by the Presidency Council nor the High State Council but has a separate article on the HSC criticism.

Libya Dialogue members meet in Tunisia but without eastern members

(January 22) The UN-brokered Libya Dialogue met in the town of Mammamet in Tunisia to assess the progress of the Presidency Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and discuss changing parts of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA).

However, the delegation from the eastern-based rival government the House of Representatives (HoR) was absent from the meeting. According to HoR spokesperson Abdullah Bulaihak, the parliamentary deputy president Emhemed Shouaib and others were ordered not to attend by Ageela Saleh head of the HoR. Apparently Shouaib and the other members of the HoR delegation are no longer representatives of the HoR. There are unconfirmed reports that Shouaib was to fly back to Tobruk, the site of the HoR government, for consultations. Bulahaik said a new team had to be chosen and this would not happen until tomorrow at the earliest.

The members who met anyway to start deliberations decided only to ask the HoR who will be their new representatives. The discussions are about proposals that reduce the size of the Presidency Council from nine members to three as in an earlier draft of the LPA. The Presidency Council head would not also be Prime Minister but there would be a separate Prime Minister in charge of the cabinet. Apparently this structure is supported by Ageela Saleh and many members of the the HoR. It is unlikely any decision taken without HoR delegates present would be accepted by the HoR.

The members of the Libyan Dialogue must be acceptable to the UN special envoy Martin Kobler. He is unlikely to accept members whom he thinks are likely to vote for changes that he thinks may cause further divisions or other changes not acceptable to him. The HoR does not have the power to force its own choice of delegates on Kobler as membership of the Dialogue is a decision of Kobler. Names may not be the most pressing problem. Saleh wants a five-person HoR team rather than the present four. This would give the HoR more power. Another problem is that the HoR itself is not united about who should be on their team. Although Kobler did not attend today's meeting, the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) organized the meeting site, bought Dialogue members plane tickets and arranged their accommodation.

The meeting has already been postponed twice. Originally the meeting was supposed to take place in Ghadames last week. It was then set to meet in Tunis on Wednesday but was then postponed until Sunday. The proposal from the HoR for a three person Presidency Council would see a representative from each of the three regions of Libya. However, the HoR is apparently finding it difficult to decide who they should name as their representative.

According to the Libya Herald, Saleh is willing to have the present head of the PC Faiez Serraj as head of the PC which is reduced in power as well as numbers, but only so long as Khalifa Haftar remains as military chief of the Libyan National Army, elections take place for the State Council and he remains as HoR president. Some of these demands sound impossible to satisfy. According to the present LPA, the PC has the function of commander in chief. Section 8 of the present LPA demands this. There is no way many members of the GNA and the High State Council would stand for any change to the LPA that would allow Haftar to remain as commander in chief of the armed forces. In fact, some will not countenance him having any role in the GNA. In the past, Kobler has refused to allow amendments to the LPA and has claimed it could not be amended but now he claims that the LPA is not written in stone.

It is not clear why the existing members of the HoR delegation are being replaced. What is clear is that if Saleh is demanding that Haftar remain as commander of the armed forces there will likely be no agreement with other members of the Dialogue. If there is then the GNA will simply implode. The Tunisia Dialogue meetings if they ever even start are unlikely to reach any solution to the present impasse between the GNA, the HoR and Haftar.

The HoR rejected the LPA for the second time on August 22 last year. There is no sign that there has been any progress towards holding another meeting at which the HoR would amend the constitutional declaration of 2011 as required and approve a new GNA government that is presented to them.

Much of present chaos in Libya can be traced to UN sidelining HoR and GNC in signing Skhirat LPA

Much of the responsibility for the present chaos in Libya can be traced back to the actions of the UN, the UN Security Council and the many countries who strongly support the UN-brokered Libya Political Agreement (LPA).

The hubris, arrogance, and bad faith of the actions of the former Special Envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon and his successor, Special Representative to the Secretary-General Martin Kobler, are astonishing but everyone applauds them and their efforts.

The Libya Dialogue was a UN-brokered attempt to have the two main rival governments, the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk and the rival General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli along with other stakeholders come to a political agreement which would result in peace and a unity government that both parliaments would accept. The two rival governments would voluntarily hand over power to the unity government. The aim was to have a government that will request foreign military intervention to fight against the Islamic State. The intervention could also deal with the huge flow of immigrants from Libya to Europe.

Bernardino Leon tried for over a year to come up with a draft agreement that both parliaments were expected to sign. Leon himself was discovered to have accepted a high-paying job in the UAE. He also communicated with officials in the UAE, in effect taking orders from them. He was attempting to weaken the GNC and empower the HoR. The UN said there was no conflict of interest involved even though the conflict was perfectly clear. Leon's final draft of a Libya Political Agreement (LPA) was accepted by Leon's successor Martin Kobler who claimed it could not be amended. He then tried, without success, to have the LPA adopted by the two parliaments.

Instead of reviving the Dialogue, Kobler gathered together members of the Dialogue who approved the LPA and its associated Government of National Accord (GNA) in Skhirat, Morocco. There were members from both parliaments present but none had signing authority. The Skhirat LPA was signed on December 17. There was no Libyan Political Agreement as intended by the original dialogue but a scheme for forced regime change imposed upon the two rival governments. This is obvious, but the media ignore this background. Even this LPA has been violated numerous times. The LPA has also been amended, for example by changing the number of deputy ministers from three to nine. Yet the Skihirat agreement is praised by numerous governments and is supported by a resolution in the UN Security Council which threatens those who block its implementation with sanctions.

The UN still faced the unfortunate fact that even the Skhirat LPA required the HoR to vote confidence in the GNA. A formal vote has never happened. Instead a statement by an alleged majority of the HoR that supports the GNA was used as an equivalent. There still has to be an amendment by the HoR to the constitutional declaration of 2011 to incorporate the GNA into the constitution. As with so much else, this is mostly ignored. The last four meetings of the HoR have not had a quorum. The GNA went ahead and declared itself up and running and the UN and associated international cheerleaders urged it to move to Tripoli. Not the slightest hint that the UN or GNA has done anything wrong even though they have been violating their own rules,

It should come as no surprise that since neither government agreed to the LPA or GNA that they have not ceded power, in spite of threats from the UN and the promise of good jobs in the new government. The HoR is actually the legislature of the GNA and the State Council is composed of GNC members. As Mohamed Eljarh of the Atlantic Council in Washington put it: "The birth of this government in this way has done nothing but worsen the political crisis... create new conflicts and further destabilise."

The GNC has not given Kobler permission to land at the Mitiga airport in Tripoli. Kobler tweeted: "Again had to cancel flight to Tripoli... UN must have the right to fly (to) Tripoli," Kobler has the force of a UN Security Council resolution behind him, the same resolution that has been used to threaten sanctions against two officials of the UN. The result seems to have been to harden positions.

The same has happened in the HoR with the parliament refusing to hand over power and objecting to the move to Tripoli before a formal vote is held. The international community and the UN refuse to recognize that any of this is due to them. It is all a result of a handful of "spoilers". Among the spoilers, is Khalifa Haftar whose Operation Dignity was in large part responsible for the present civil war. He was once to be sanctioned but that is ancient history and his name no longer comes up just Ageela Salah, head of the HoR.

Michael Nayebi-Oskui, a Middle East and North Africa analyst said: "Unless the international community can give the GNA control over Libyan finances, a powerful national army, and somehow make it legitimate in the eyes of the Libyan people, the GNA is poised to become the weakest of Libya's three competing national authorities." There do seem to be attempts to cause financial difficulties for the GNC government to turn people against it. The most powerful army is no doubt that of the HoR, the Libyan National Army(LNA) mostly composed of former militia of the commander in chief Khalifa Haftar. The UN will not take him on and sideline him since he has the support of Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and the Arab League. If he remains head of the LNA then the GNA is doomed for all the Islamists in the GNA will revolt.

While the divisions within Libya itself are an important factor creating problems and conflict within Libya, even those divisions are exacerbated by foreign intervention in support of one group or another. However, UN intervention with the support of numerous foreign governments, often former colonial powers, has exacerbated the situation through gross violation of its own rules in order to achieve a compliant government to legitimize foreign intervention.

CIA-Linked Khalifa Haftar may stay on as Commander in Chief of National Libya Army

On December 17th in Tunis, the UN-sponsored Libya Political Agreement(LPA) was signed by some members of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk and the rival General National Congress(GNC) based in Tripoli.

 

Neither of the two parliaments approved of or even voted on the LPA, nor did those who signed from the two bodies have any authorization from either body to do so. The LPA has subsequently been endorsed by the UN Security Council and a large ministerial meeting in Rome. Most press coverage has praised the LPA but also expressed reservations about whether the attempt to establish the new Government of National Accord(GNA) associated with the agreement will be successful. Lately there have been more critical articles. Surprisingly the formerly pro-HoR Libya Herald and the pro-GNC Llibya Observer both published the same critical article by Richard Galustian. Two new critical articles were just released on Libya Analysis by Jason Pack a well-known commentator on Libya. Pack says:

My consulting/advisory work has consisted of frequent meetings with the MoD, DoD, FCO, State Department, NATO and the UN, concerning the need to formulate multilateral policies towards Libya focused on mediating between Libya’s many stakeholders and building governance capacity.His recent two articles on Libya can be found here.

In this article, I will concentrate on the important issue of General Khalifa Haftar's role in the new Government of National Accord(GNA). Haftar is the commander of the Libyan National Army, the armed forces of the HoR. He has been an outspoken critic of the LPA and rejected it all along. He refuses to agree to a ceasefire with or to negotiate with the main militia of the GNC Libya Dawn or Fajr Libya. He has been carrying out a military operation called Operation Dignity since May of last year. This included burning down the parliament buildings at the beginning of Operation Dignity as show on the appended You Tube video.The operation continues but it is never talked about as Operation Dignity by the UN or the mainstream press:

Haftar and his buddy the head of the Air Force were both to be subject to sanctions by the EU but all coverage of this has disappeared:

Two military leaders in the east of Libya, who say their forces will not respect any peace accord, also face sanctions. They are General Khalifa Haftar, commander in chief of the eastern forces and air force head Fakir Jarroushi.

The cover of a recent US commando landing in Libya was recently blown on the Libyan Air Force Facebook page complete with photos. The commandos were forced to leave.

Pack claims that the LPA signing in Skhirat was possible only because of Kobler's meeting with Haftar a day before the signing on December 16th:Looking back, it is now clear the Skhirat deal was final made possible on Dec 17 after last minute efforts by the UN-envoy, Martin Kobler to assuage the HoR, Haftar and the Tubroq faction. He did this by obtaining the nomination of Ali Al-Gutrani (HoR Rep), for the position of Deputy PM in the GNA presidential council. Gutrani’s role will be to safeguard the interests of the Haftar.

Pack claims that Hatar gave his implicit blessing to the LPA and the GNA since it was needed to combat terrorism. However, he noted Haftar disagreed with the LPA in its current form. Pack is quite critical of what happened and concludes:

This statement showed that Kobler is merely continuing the biased pro-Tobruq policies of his predecessor Bernardino Leon.

Leon took a well-paying job in the UAE back in June and emails also revealed that he was in effect accepting direction from officials there, that would strengthen the HoR and weaken the GNC. Kobler said that he would not change the names of those Leon had nominated for the GNA but if Pack is correct it would appear he broke this promise to get support from Haftar. The UN has yet to release the text of the exact document signed at Skhirat. I wonder why?

There are two very important issues that Pack does not even discuss. One is the fact that the present LPA has a section that gives senior members of the GNA the function of commander in chief of the Libyan National Army depriving Haftar of his position. He will never stand for this I should think. If the GNA is to gain the support of Haftar, he must remain as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army. The other crucial point that Pack fails to mention is that the LPA requires a vote of confidence by the HoR, which is the legislature of the GNA, before the term of the GNA begins. When what Kobler called a majority of the HoR signed a statement that supported the GNA in principle, it was with the proviso that Haftar remain as commander in chief. These are the people who supported the signing. They will not vote confidence in the GNA until Haftar is allowed to stay on as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army. However, if this happens, almost all of the GNC supporters of the agreement will refuse to work with the GNA creating even more division.

Perhaps, Kobler altered the LPA in order to do away with the requirement of a vote of confidence by the HoR. It seems unlikely that he has though, since the HoR representatives would be furious. Pack is pessimistic about any chance of success of the LPA:In fact, the GNA is likely to represent the same failings of the HoR with the same alliances with international powers, except possibly worse as the GNA appears to be signalling a phase of greater international intervention in Libyan affairs rather than a movement to an organic solution over which Libyan ownership can be exerted.At present, it is the UN and much of the international community that has ownership of this mess.

UN and international community need new Libyan government to approve military intervention

The UN dialogue process was supposed to result in a political agreement(LPA) between the two rival Libyan governments as well as an agreed Government of National Accord(GNA).

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Before leaving his post as Special Envoy to Libya and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya(UNSMIL), Bernardino Leon had drafted an LPA. and suggested names for senior members of the GNA. However, Leon was never able to get either parliament to approve the final draft. Both the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk, in the east, and the General National Congress(GNC) in Tripoli never voted on the draft. When Martin Kobler took over Leon's role last November 17th, he refused to open up the draft for amendments and also insisted that the names suggested by Leon remain. In spite of the fact that there was no GNA, the senior officials were treated as if they had the status of actual officials and visited with officials from different countries. Kobler also held discussions with them. There were even several international meetings to plan how to provide aid for a GNA that did not exist.

Meanwhile, Kobler was no more able to get either parliament to pass the UN LPA than Leon was. One recent meeting to take a vote was suspended after a fight but with no vote. Kobler next move is so outrageous that it seems impossible that it should be happening. It only makes sense if the UN plans a coup in Libya bypassing both existing governments and claiming legitimacy for their own creation. Of course it will never be called that. There will be a legitimate government resulting from an agreement among Libyans or as Kobler would have it “some 40 courageous men and women who take considerable risks to put the interest of Libya above personal interest”.

Many in the international community are desperate to a create one new Libyan government, one that will in return for aid allow military intervention in Libya. This will all be done in the name of fighting the Islamic State which is portrayed as if it is vastly enlarging its territory in Libya when in fact it could be argued that the opposite is the case since it has lost its original main base in Derna and been driven into the mountains and outskirts there. It is mainly in Sirte and area.

Plans for military intervention in Libya have been brewing for some time as I noted back in August. Lately the drumbeats for intervention and the chorus of cries about the dangers of the Islamic State in Libya have reached a fever pitch. The Telegraph reports: Italy has been drawing up plans for a European military coalition to back any Libyan Government and seeking allies to lend help.

Any plan would have to wait for Libya to appoint a recognised national government.Of course Libya is not going to appoint a recognized national government, a few chosen by the UN because they agree to the UN plan will do that. The two rival governments will not be involved, not even the internationally-recognized one. Britain too is ready to join the fray: Ministers at the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence say they are “extremely concerned" by the rapid rise of Isil and other extremist groups in Libya and are considering plans for intervening to tackle the threat.Kobler announced after a recent meeting with some Dialogue members in Tunis, none of whom were there as designated negotiators for either parliament, that signing of the LPA would be on December 16th. There was no mention of the LPA being approved by either parliament nor did he say who would sign. A reaction by the GNC and its head negotiator soon made it clear why. None of the GNC participants were authorized to attend the meeting by the GNC. I expect the same is true of the HoR, but the usual mouthpiece for the HoR, the Libya Herald, seems to have changed from being a mouthpiece for the HoR to being a mouthpiece for the UN. It reports nothing of the HoR reaction so far.

Kobler announced, as reported in the Libya Herald, after meeting with the UN Security Council where he sought support:The House of Representatives and the General National Congress are in danger of breaking up, new UNSMIL chief Martin Kobler has told the UN Security Council. Kobler explained to Security Council members “ I have no illusions about the difficult realities that confront us in Libya. The two institutions at the centre of the political conflict in Libya are beginning to show dangerous signs of internal fragmentation”.

Kobler does not bother to explain that the fragmentation is caused by his constant demands that there be a vote on the LPA which neither wants to hold because it is so divisive. If it were to pass in the HoR there would probably be a military coup because Haftar opposes it.

Kobler notes that his talks with Dialogue members were called "in the face of the continuing inability of both the HoR and GNC to endorse the LPA". So instead of concluding that the LPA would not work and needed to be changed, Kobler decides to bypass the two rival governments altogether. He ends by claiming that there was an agreement that the LPA will be signed December 16th. He has gone behind the backs of the two rival governments that he is supposed to be helping reach an agreement and picked out 40 people who agree with the UN plan, no doubt motivated by various carrots and sticks.

Kobler points out all the problems that Libyans face particularly emphasizing the danger from the forces of extremism and terrorism and then claims that many dialogue participants said: They had also said that the future Government of National Accord should be able to assume its responsibilities in Tripoli without threats and intimidation. This needed a collective agreement on security. Kobler told the Security Council that he was thus taking the opportunity to “call directly on the leadership of the General National Congress to allow my colleagues and myself to land with our airplane in Tripoli and other cities in Libya to freely interact with whomever we deem necessary. We can only fulfil our mandate if we have free access to all security actors, particularly in Tripoli”.What mandate is that? To push through an agreement not approved by the GNC indeed an agreement meant to avoid having them involved and then demand that they cooperate with a government the UN imposed? The UNSMIL mandate was to forge an agreement between the two rival governments.

Kobler will be fortunate if he can land his plane anywhere in Libya. Even in talking of broadening the base of his support, Kobler fails to even mention either government: “Once the agreement is signed, we will immediately assist in broadening the basis of support for the new Government which should ultimately be based in Tripoli. Through engagement with the militias, political parties, tribal elders, and civil society, we will advocate for the acceptance of the Libyan Political Agreement”.They are not going to dialogue with these groups, they will simply advocate for the acceptance of the LPA. There is no mention of what role if any the commander of the Libyan National Army is to play in all of this. He opposes the LPA. Haftar is supported by Egypt, the UAE, and the Arab League. Haftar is the unmentionable and I suspect untouchable.

Questions about proposal to sign Libya Political Agreement Dec. 16

Martin Kobler, now often referred to as SRSG or Special Representative of the Secretary General in Libya, has just released a new statement that sets December 16th as the target date for signing the UN-brokered Libya Political Agreement(LPA).

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As usual, UN news releases are noteworthy not for what they say but what they leave out. While announcing the signing date, there is no mention of the parliaments of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk nor the rival General National Congress(GNC) based in Tripoli. To be legitimate any signature would need to be subsequent to approval by each rival government. There are only a few days left before December 16th. How does the UN plan to have the LPA move through the parliaments in this time when it has been unable to force a vote for months now? Is the UN intending to bypass the parliaments and simply chose select members who support the LPA from the HoR and GNC to sign the LPA? This is a recipe for division and disaster, if that is what the UN has in mind. It is worth quoting Kobler's recent release in some detail:

We had two days of very intense discussions with the Libyan Political Dialogue, and I was very happy to have the members of the Libyan Political Dialogue around the table. And I felt a big consensus; I felt that there is urgency and that the clock is ticking for the sake of peace, security and prosperity in Libya. ..There was a wide consensus that only through rapid signature of the Libyan political agreement the country can be brought back to unity.

You heard what was announced by Mr. Shoueib and Mr. Makhzoum just now, the Libyan political dialogue agreed on a target date for the signature on the 16th of December.

Notice that Kobler said that he had members of the Libyan Political Dialogue around the table. He did not say whether they were authorized to be there as representatives of the rival parliaments to sign any agreement. He did not speak of them being the negotiating teams of the respective parliaments. This is significant because I expect that these are select members of the Dialogue chosen because he could get them to sign on to the LPA. Several times before both rival parliaments have rejected decisions of their representatives as well. There is no reason to think this time would be any different. Certainly the HoR would not accept the LPA as it is, since it takes away Haftar's job as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army. Who knows what Kobler is promising to get people to sign on. Note that the announcement of the target date was not by the president of either parliament but: "... by deputy House of Representatives (HoR) president Emhemend Shouaib and the General National Congress’ (GNC) deputy president Salah Makhzoum following two days of Libya Dialogue talks in the Tunisian capital chaired by UN Special Envoy Martin Koble."

The reaction to the announcement by the GNC has been swift. It denounced the announcement and said that none of the members from the GNC at the dialogue were there as representatives of the GNC. The head of the GNC dialogue team Awad Abdul-Sadiq said: "The GNC did not mandate anyone to attend the meeting. The GNC has demanded explanations from the UN Secretary General about the leaked emails of Leon."Awad said that the only official dialogue was held on December 5th in Tunisia together with representatives from the HoR which agreed to a rival plan negotiated directly by members of the two rival governments. He said however that the GNC was willing to cooperate with the UN in a solution to the crisis. He also noted that Al-Makhzoom had resigned from the negotiating team back in August.

Kobler is already double-dealing, deepening divisions and making any peaceful solution to the situation quite unlikely. It appears clear that he has chosen a select group of dialogue members to push his own agenda which he is unable to pass through either parliament. He will no doubt be able to count on the UN Security Council signing on to support this charade. This Sunday there will be a gala group of cheerleaders to pressure the parties to sign on to the LPA:U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to Rome this weekend for a high-level gathering on the crisis in Libya. The State Department says Kerry will co-chair Sunday's meeting with Italy's foreign minister.

Some old guy with a beard once said that history repeats itself the first time as tragedy and the second time as farce. In the case of the UN both happenings are a mixture of both tragedy and farce. Here is a quote from the first gala meeting of cheerleaders in early October at the UN in New York, a first attempt to apply huge international pressure to sign the same UN-brokered LPA:Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, has called for Libya’s factions to end their civil war after yet another deadline passed without a ceasefire and fighting raged on across the country. At a meeting in New York originally planned to celebrate the signing of a UN-brokered peace deal, Ban appealed to the country’s rival governments to come together. “No agreement is perfect, but this document will help Libya move beyond the chaos,” he said.

No doubt the Kobler's present machinations are an attempt to do an end run around the competing Libyan only agreement between the two rival governments. It may also be an attempt to do an end run around passing the LPA through the two parliaments. Even if this works, the move will create worse divisions and further resentment against the UN and foreign intervention in Libya. It leaves totally unsolved the problem of enforcement when there is no parallel military agreement and the commander of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar will never accept any agreement that removes him from his job.

Zeina Khodr, an Al Jazeera correspondent unlike much of the mass media asks some pertinent questions:"We need to know where will this government be based? And whether all members of these two institutions are on board?If you don't have main political and military actors onboard, this could be a recipe for further disaster."Khodr also noted that there is no mention of Khalifa Haftar in the statement. Is there some understanding that he will remain as commander in chief? There is no way he will stand by and let the GNA take away his job or allow the HoR to sign an LPA that does so. Kobler did not take any questions after the press statement.

UN acts as if new Libyan unity government is certain even though there is no agreement

The Libyan Government of National Accord(GNA) is the unity government proposed in the Libyan Political Agreement(LPA). The final draft of the LPA was presented to the two rival governments some time ago by Bernardino Leon, then UN Special Envoy to Libya.

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The new UN Special Envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, who took over on November 17, has continued where Leon left off by putting pressure on the two rival regimes to sign on to the LPA. In spite of constant pressure, Leon was unable to get either the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) in Tobruk or the General National Congress(GNC) in Tripoli to vote to approve the LPA. Both parliaments have issued statements opposing the LPA as it is, but Leon insists there are majorities favoring it but are prevented from voting by hard-liners.

Since Kobler took over he has been seeking and getting support for convincing the parties to sign the LPA and then moving ahead with formation of the GNA from many countries.Just recently he went to Qatar and the UAE. The UAE supports the HoR and its armed forces commander, Khalifa Haftar. Qatar looks more favorably on the GNC. Kobler also got support from the EU: The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, has expressed the union’s readiness to aid Libya and its expected Government of National accord (GNA) with a substantial 100-million-euro aid package.Mogherini delivered a warning that "Libya will face the further spread of insecurity and instability, an increased threat from terrorist groups, a worsening economic and financial situation, and a growing humanitarian crisis" if the talks continue to halt.

There is no sign Kobler is showing the least degree of flexibility even though both sides demand changes to the final draft and reject at least some of the names proposed for the GNA. He did, it seems, manage to persuade the HoR to meet to discuss the LPA, but the session was suspended after a fight, again with no vote. The pro-HoR Libya Herald reported 92 members had signed a statement supporting the LPA before the meeting. However, this is simply not true.The support was with the proviso that Haftar, the commander of the Libya National Army, retain his job. The group also did not accept some of the names that the UN put forward as members of the GNA. The present LPA would give the role of commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army to senior members of the the GNA, not Haftar. What the Herald calls "supporting the GNA" is just another form of rejection, but many do not even agree to that. There is no news as to what, if anything, is happening in the GNC parliament although it too is supposed to meet and vote on the LPA. There is not a peep out of the UN website about any of this, The mostrecent release is all about aid specialists meeting from across Libya:A UN-organized meeting of Libyan specialists involved in aid coordination in key national institutions from across Libya convened in Tunis on 25-26 November 2015 with a view to improve aid coordination and delivery mechanism as well as provide a solid plan for humanitarian and development assistance to the future Government of National Accord.This is not even the first meeting, as there was a meeting in October in London which also focused on support for the GNA.

At his first meetings after taking over, Kobler met not only with representatives of the two rival governments but senior members of the GNA named by Leon the Presidency Council. These people have no status since neither of the two parties have yet approved of the LPA and both have rejected some of the names in the draft. The proposed prime minister of the GNA is treated as if he is already an official with visits to Cairo to talk with officials there and also to Algiers.

It is hardly surprising that a group from the HoR rejects the GNA and describes it as "foreign tutelage." A meeting of Libyan mayors declared there was no international solution to Libya's problems — that Libya's problems can only be solved through a dialogue between Libyans without international participation.

New UN Special Envoy to Libya flies to Tobruk for talks

- The new UN Special Envoy to Libya, German diplomat Martin Kobler, has flown to Libya for three days of talks to try and restart the UN-brokered Libya dialogue process.

As the Libya Herald notes, in a statement Kobler issued on the day he took over from his predecessor Bernardino Leon, he said ".. he would be meeting the various members of the Dialogue and the proposed presidency council as well as other Libyan key players to discuss what he called a “small number of outstanding issues”." According to the Herald, the "outstanding issues" are the names announced by Leon for posts in the proposed Government of National Reconciliation. According to the Herald:

 A significant section of the House of Representatives, mainly from the east of the country, have said that they will not accept some of the names and that the presidency council must consist of five members as originally suggested, not the nine in Leon’s final proposal.As I noted in a previous article it seems quite inappropriate that Kobler be meeting with the proposed presidency council since they have no status at all except as selected by Leon. The Herald also reports Kobler is opposed to any changes in the main text of Leon's final draft of the Libya Political Agreement(LPA). Kobler also says his talks will also be focused on security. He gives no indication of exactly how he intends to address that problem.

Another Herald report said Kobler was expected in Tobruk — where the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government is located — on Sunday. The Herald suggests Kobler will look to rebuild trust in the UN Support Mission in Libya(UNSMIL). Detractors say UNSMIL stands for United Nations Sabotage Mission in LIbya.

Kobler's predecessor, Bernardino Leon, had close relations with the UAE, a strong supporter of the HoR government and General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the armed forces, who has all through the peace process carried on a military campaign against Islamists, including forces of the rival government, started back in May of 2014. Leon was in a clear conflict of interest situation but the UN did nothing and supported him until he finally left. Both the Tripoli-based General National Congress government and an American Libyan group have demanded an explanation from Ban Ki-Moon of the UN's actions in hiring and keeping him on while he had a conflict of interest. Among other conflicts, he accepted a more than $1,500-a-day job back in June in the UAE. The Herald, as mentioned, says that Kobler will likely try to rebuild trust in the UN after the distrust created by Leon.

Given that the GNC government should most distrust the UN, due to Leon's relations with the UAE, it is strange that Kobler flew to the HoR for his first talks. If he wants to create trust for the UN in the GNC he hardly will do so by saying he opposes any changes to the Leon main text. The GNC insisted that there be further amendments before they would accept the LPA. Some in the GNC want to start the dialogue from scratch again. One report says it is not clear that Kobler will even go to the capital Tripoli to consult with the GNC. It appears that Kobler is just interested in getting the HoR on board and is not worried about the GNC. The UN perhaps picked a successor to Leon whom they expect will carry on the same policy of imposing on Libya what outside forces want

As an indication that the UN is paying no attention to what is happening, the proposed head of the Government of National Accord(GNA) is in Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials on the fight against terrorism. There is no GNA. The LPA is widely rejected. The UN is shown to be acting in accordance with the wishes of external forces and the game goes on as usual. There must be a GNA so that foreign interests can get permission for intervention in Libya.

Some on both sides are now suggesting there should be a Libyan versus Libyan dialogue between the HoR and the GNC, without the presence of the UN. As a recent article by Jason Pack suggests, it may be time to liberate Libya from the UN. At the very least, it should be liberated from a dialogue process in which there is huge international pressure to create a government regarded as the right one by many international powers, but opposed by many if not most Libyans.

Bernardino Leon former UN envoy to Libya reconsidering acceptance of job in UAE

There are signs that UN Special Envoy for Libya, Bernardino Leon may be reconsidering his acceptance of a high-paying job as head of a diplomatic college in the UAE.

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In a surprising release from the UN Leon says:I am aware of the report today in the New York Times about Libya and alleged activities in contravention of United Nations Security Council resolutions. In light of this report, I have decided to request a full clarification of the issue, including from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) authorities, as I take time to reflect on the next steps in my professional career.I discuss the New York Times report in a recent article. Leon was revealed by leaked emails released and discussed in the Guardian to have been in a blatant conflict of interest. Leon has been serving for over a year as mediator and head of UN-sponsored dialogue talks designed to reach an agreement between two rival governments. One government is the House of Representatives(HoR) based in eastern Libya in the city of Tobruk, and the other is the General National Congress(GNC) based in the western city of Tripoli. The material released by the Guardian shows that Leon had accepted a position at a diplomatic college in Abu Dhabi, UAE at a pay rate of over $1,500 a day. The material also shows that he informed the UAE that his aim while mediating was to weaken the GNC and their armed forces the Libya Dawn militia while strengthening the HoR. They also show that he took direction from at least one UAE official.The UAE is a strong supporter of the HoR and of General Khalifa Haftar commander of the HoR armed forces. Leon denies he was in a conflict of interest. The UN has supported him and still does. The facts clearly show that the UN did not follow their own guidelines.

In a truly bizarre release, Leon goes on:Given the inaccurate or false information we have seen in previous months regarding the process in Libya and the UN and my role, I believe it is imperative to be extremely cautious about the most recent reports.Of course, Leon fails to say what inaccurate or false information he is talking about or what evidence he has that the information is false or inaccurate. Why on earth would the UN give space for Leon to ramble on with such remarks? As revealed later in this article, the remarks have nothing to do with his role as job as UN Special Envoy to Libya, according to a UN spokesperson. Due to the supposedly false or inaccurate information found in earlier reporting Leon goes on: For this reason I consider nothing is more important than full compliance with United Nations resolutions. The reports in the media are allegations that have not been verified. The authorities and government of the UAE have the right and deserve the opportunity to clarify them, as I am confident they will do.

Given that this is a release from a UN site and Leon is the UN Special Envoy for Libya, one would think the UN is asking for an explanation from the UAE. Reuters headlines its report on the issue: U.N. wants clarification of report UAE broke Libya arms embargo.Other sources such as Salon and ABC take Leon's statements as indicating that he is simply going to ask the UAE to explain the situation because obviously he is not going to accept a job with a country that violates UN resolutions! UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said the UN will await the outcome "of Leon's efforts to seek clarifications, including from the UAE, and his decision on his next steps."

The issue is covered very well and thoroughly at innercitypress.com that covers the UN extensively and asks very probing questions at UNTV sessions. A key video on Leon's statements about the UAE is appended. Note that the statement on a UN website is said to be all about Leon's own personal business in deciding his future actions, according to UN spokesperson Haq, and has nothing to do with his role as UN Special Envoy to Libya. So why on earth did the UN think it so important that there should be a press release that is all about Leon's concerns about a story that the UAE shipped arms to Libya counter to UN resolutions?Should not the UN be the party making a statement that it wants a clarification and explanation as Reuters thought?

The questioner on the video asks whether Leon went through the same process as his predecessor: Leon's predecessor as UN envoy to Libya Tarek Mitri, however, got a formal "Note" from Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, signed by Ban's chief of staff Susana Malcorra and cc-ed to Under Secretaries General Jeffrey Feltman (Political Affairs), Yukio Takasu (Management) and Joan Dubinksy (Ethics Office) approving outside activity for Mitri..Haq does not really answer the question. He surely knows or should whether the process was followed or not. He surely knows if such a formal note existed for Leon as with Mitri. Note that the UN says that employees should show caution in accepting employment with a member state immediately after leaving the UN's employ. Perhaps pressure is being brought on Leon to decide against taking up the job since this might be a further violation of UN guidelines. Given that the UN has already allowed Leon to break a number of their own guidelines and approved his actions it seems a bit odd that they are now worried about his breaking just one more. The questioner in the video does a fantastic job in my opinion and the exchange is quite revealing. The video has had nine views.

Tripoli government wants explanation of UN hiring of special envoy who had conflict of interest

The General National Congress(GNC) Libyan government based in Tripoli has demanded an explanation from UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon for hiring Bernardino Leon, claiming he was biased against the GNC government.

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The UAE announced last Wednesday that Leon had been hired as the head of a diplomatic college that would train UAE diplomats and help advance UAE policies. The UAE is a strong backer of the of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government. The UAE, with the help of Egypt,is even thought to have bombed Tripoli in support of the HoR government and as part of the Operation Dignity, meant to defeat the Libya Dawn militia that supports the GNC government. The GNC said the revelations "threaten to destroy the political track during this sensitive time." Given that the parliaments of the two rival governments have not voted on the Leon's last draft of the Libya Political Dialogue, and both sides have issued statements rejecting the draft, the political track has been stalled for some time in any event.

A recent Guardian article cited many emails from Leon to the UAE indicating he was clearly trying to de-legitimize the GNC and promote the HoR government. As long ago as June, Leon had been offered the post at the UAE academy with a salary of over $1,500 U.S. a day, plus a huge living allowance. He was busy over the summer trying to obtain a larger housing alliance. When the Guardian contacted Leon last Monday Leon denied he had taken the job. He asked the paper to hold off publishing the story and offered an interview to explain the situation. On Wednesday, the UAE announced Leon had been appointed to the position. This is interesting timing.

The UAE must have known that this would force the UN to remove Leon from his position earlier than was planned. His term had just been extended and the UN had just expressed its full confidence in his work. I can only conclude the UAE wanted to throw a wrench into the dialogue. The agreement was a threat to Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the HoR armed forces. It would likely remove him from his position. With the dialogue process failed, the UAE, Egypt, and the Arab league can get on with their support for Haftar and the campaign against Islamists and the Tripoli government. In his recent meeting with UK prime minister David Cameron, Egyptian President el-SIsi appears not to have even mentioned the dialogue or the Government of National Accord that is supposed to be created.

Leon claims he was not in any conflict of interest and pointed out that many on both sides support his draft. This neglects that he has never been successful in his parallel military dialogue that was supposed to forge an agreement between the rival military forces of the GNC and the HoR. Haftar calls the forces of the GNC terrorists, and refuses to negotiate or agree to a ceasefire with them. He has contempt for the dialogue and even bombed the one functioning airport in Tripoli prior to peace talks. On one occasion this caused the GNC delegates to be a day late for talks. So blatant were Haftar's snubs against the UN and the peace process that the EU named Haftar and his air force chief as subject to sanctions. He dismissed the threat as ridiculous. He then went to Jordan and signed a military agreement with that country. Egypt, the UAE, and the Arab League all supported Haftar and the HoR government, whose Operation Dignity fights against "terrorism," which means any Islamists opposed to them. The sanctions appear never to have come into effect but the press seem not to have noticed. I have seen no account of what happened.

There are guidelines for UN mediators:The UN guidance on effective mediation says mediators should “not accept conditions for support from external actors that would affect the impartiality of the process” and that they should “hand over to another mediator, or mediating entity, if they feel unable to maintain a balanced and impartial approach”.

How can Leon deny a conflict of interest when he accepted a well-paying job from the UAE, a country that clearly supports one side in the dialogue Leon was heading? Surely this is accepting conditions for support from external actors that would affect the impartiality of the process. However, Leon claims it didn't damage his impartiality and obviously he did not feel he was "unable to maintain a balanced and impartial approach." Yet in his emails Leon makes remarks such as that he was attempting to de-legitimize the GNC government and promote the HoR. Leon admits "the optics are bad". The optics are not bad. The problem is that Leon was in a conflict of interest and the facts make this perfectly clear for everyone to see. The optics are fine.

Ali Tekbali, a member of the HoR, said that UN talks with the GNC would resume under the leadership of the new UN Special Envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, before the end of this month. Saad Abusharrada a member of the GNC who supports talks said that the Leon situation is not likely to affect negotiations. The GNC might not be in favor of using the latest Leon draft as the basis for new negotiations given it had been developed by Leon. Any negotiation will be more or less fruitless unless Haftar is sidelined and removed from his post.

The UN should realize that the HoR government probably can survive only as long as it has the support of Haftar. The prime minister Abdullah al Thinni has twice been prevented from leaving the country by Haftar, and has been forced to allow Haftar to approve his cabinet appointments..The rival parties and many others will not accept any agreement which does not sideline Haftar. The UN has continued negotiations for over a year while studiously ignoring the actual military situation and the influence of that on the two parliaments. Haftar has been untouchable.

German diplomat Martin Kobler will soon replace Bernardino Leon in Libya

A veteran diplomat from Germany, Martin Kobler, will face the daunting task of taking over the peace talks from former UN Special Envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon, who is leaving his post on Friday.

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Leon accepted a position to be head of a diplomatic academy in the UAE. He will be paid about $1,540 US per day. The UAE is a strong supporter of the internationally-recognized HoR government and of General Khalifa Haftar the commander of the HoR armed forces. The UAE is even suspected of bombing Tripoli on his behalf. Apparently, Leon had been offered the position back in June and was busy during the summer attempting to negotiate better terms. All this time he was supposed to be a neutral facilitator of the Libyan dialogue. Surely the UN should have known what was going on and demand that Leon step down immediately.

The UN had recently extended Leon's mandate so he could try to conclude negotiations on the Libyan Political Agreement. Neither the HoR nor the rival General National Congress(GNC) government in Tripoli had approved the agreement or its associated Government of National Accord. Indeed statements have been issued by both groups rejecting it although no vote was ever taken.

As recently as October 31 the United Nations Support Mission in LIbya(UNSMIL) issued a press statement saying:In response to questions concerning the leadership of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the Secretary-General reaffirms that his Special Representative for Libya, Bernardino Leon, remains fully engaged on his behalf in facilitating the Libyan Political Dialogue. The Secretary-General takes this opportunity to reiterate his full confidence in Mr. Leon's efforts, aimed at supporting the Libyans to conclude the political dialogue process and form a Government of National Accord as soon as possible.

On Wednesday, the UAE announced the appointment of Leon as head of the academy. The timing is interesting. The UAE authorities must have known that this would make Leon's role at the UN impossible to maintain.  A recent UNSMIL news release says: Mr. Kobler will succeed Bernardino León of Spain, to whom the Secretary-General is grateful for his dedicated service and effective leadership of UNSMIL. The leadership transition will take place in the coming days.

The release does not say why Leon is leaving when a few days ago he had the full support of Ban ki-Moon and had his term extended. The most significant facts are usually left out in UNSMIL press releases. This is part of what I call the "non-speak" protocol.

Kobler will no doubt try to restart dialogue talks soon. Perhaps he will try to push through the Libya Political Agreement Leon had drafted, or at least use it as a basis for negotiations with further amendments. Alternatively, he may think it best to start anew for the most part. The chief negotiator for the GNC, Awad Abdulsadek said that Leon's taking the UAE job showed the negotiations were biased against the GNC and so Kobler should start from scratch:"The replacement of Leon should start all over again, now we know Leon was biased in favor of one of the sides."Abdulsadek said the GNC would require that the present commander in chief of the HoR armed forces not be part of the military of the new Government of National Accord. This requirement is unlikely to be agreed to by the HoR. If the HoR agreed to that it would in all probability be the target of a military coup. The HoR ambassador to the UN Ibrahim Dabbashi told the UN Security Council: "The formation of a government of national accord is imminent, perhaps even before the end of the month." That is the type of statement that Leon made many times. Dabbashi is a good diplomat who says what his audience wants to hear. Maybe he is angling for a job at the UAE academy too.

UN guidance on effective mediation says mediators should "not accept conditions for support from external actors that would affect the impartiality of the process." They should also "hand over to another mediator, or mediating entity, if they feel unable to maintain a balanced and impartial approach." Obviously Leon thought he was quite impartial in spite of emails in which he claims he was deliberately working to strengthen the HoR. At one stage in the dialogue process Leon actually carried on the process and had the HoR initial an agreement without the GNC even participating because they rejected the agreement. His record speaks for itself as Leon said in defending himself. He several times amended drafts he said could not be amended to the annoyance of both the rival parties. He set deadlines numerous times and did nothing when they were missed. He used pressure tactics and the threat of sanctions against those who opposed his draft agreements. I could go on for pages but this article is long enough already.