Lebanese academic to be new UN special envoy to Libya

The former Lebanese Minister of Culture from 2000 to 2003, Ghassan Salame has been appointed as the new UN envoy to Libya by the UN Secretary General Antonio Gutterres according to a number of media sources.

Salame will also be the new head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Salame will be the sixth envoy appointed since Gadaffi was overthrown in 2011. In November 2015, the present envoy and Special Representative of the (Secretary General(SRSG) in Libya, Martin Kobler, took over from Bernardino Leon, the fourth envoy. Leon was offered a well-remunerated position in the UAE after he left his post.

Salame is the second Lebanese person to take on the role. Tarek Mitri was the second head of UNSMIL but held the job for less than two years leaving the job in August of 2014. The job is a tough task. Kobler was unable to push through the Libyan Political Agreement(LPA) by having the House of Representatives (HoR) vote confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). The vote of confidence failed twice, the last time on August 22 last year. Since that time, Kobler has not been able to gather together a group to amend the LPA and call together the HoR to hold another confidence vote as required by the LPA. Salame will be faced with the immediate task of trying to carry on the process which so far has had no success. Salame is apparently the 29th person to be offered the job of UNSMIL head. Salame is expected to take up his unenviable task the end of June.

After his stint as Lebanese Minister of Culture, Salame served as Senior Adviser for the UN Secretary-General from 2003 to 2006. Salame has taught international relations at the American University of Beirut, Saint Joseph University in Beirut and later at the University of Paris. While Lebanon's Minister of Culture Salame served on various ministerial committee including one on the reform of the higher education system and another on productivity in public administration. He was also appointed Chairman of the Committee and Spokesman for the Arab Summit (March 2002) and the Francophone Summit (October 2002) both in Beirut the Lebanese capital.

At present, Salame is Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs and also a professor of International Relations. He is the author of several books, and sits on the board of several organizations including the International Crisis Group, and the International Peace Institute. Salame will face the so far intractable task of trying to form one united Libyan government by altering the terms of the Libyan Political Agreement in a manner that the main opposed parties will accept.

Martin Kobler UN envoy to Libya's briefing to Security Council on Libyan situation

(June 8)  Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General gave an extensive briefing on the Libyan situation to the UN Security Council on June 7. This article is a commentary on some of the contents.

Kobler titled the briefing "Setting the Stage for Peace". Kobler still defends the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) as a key guide towards a future settlement of Libya's divisions although he admits: "In Libya, the transition process has not been fully implemented. Parallel institutions continue to exist. The House of Representatives did not yet recognize the Government of National Accord nor did it adopt the Constitutional amendment." Indeed, the House of Representatives (HoR) last defeated a vote of confidence in the Government of National Accord as required by the LPA last August 22. Kobler claims that the GNA and its presidency council (PC) have changed facts on the ground with oil production rising to 800,000 barrels a day. However. one could argue that it is because Haftar has chosen to cooperate with the National Oil Company (NOC) that production has increased rather than any particular increased power of the GNA. Indeed the GNA is now more at the mercy of Haftar. There does not seem to have that much progress on a solution based on the LPA since the GNA failed to gain the confidence of the HoR last August.

Nonetheless, Kobler first key point is that the LPA will remain that framework of the political process. Kobler realizes that as it stands the LPA is not acceptable at least to the HoR and Haftar. Yet he claims that there is overwhelming national and international support for the LPA. It is questionable whether there is overwhelming national support for the LPA. This may be wishful thinking on Kobler's part. Whereas in earlier periods, Kobler has stressed the difficulty of amending the LPA he now takes a different tune claiming that it is not set in stone. Kobler says:"After months of consultations with Libyan, regional and international stakeholders, we are developing a roadmap to allow limited amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement, through an inclusive Libyan-led and Libyan-owned process." Kobler claims that there are different ideas on the format of the talks. One wonders if the format will be found in agreement with the terms of the LPA. Kobler never refers to where exactly in the LPA the terms for amendment are. Kobler says he sees broad agreements on where amendments are still needed. Note he does not say where exactly these are nor if there is any agreement on what the exact amendments should be. Presumably the size of the PC and the role of the commander in chief of Libyan Armed forces are two areas of concern. It is not clear if there is any agreement as to what the amendments should be. The HoR and Haftar supporters may want a three member PC with Haftar one, head of HoR government another, and Serraj the third member. Haftar would remain commander not as now the PC. There has been no meeting of a group to make amendments and no deadline for presenting results to the HoR to approve the GNA as amended, and also amending the constitutional declaration of 2011.

Amna Amtair one of the members of the GNA High Council of State (HCS) chosen as part of a group to amend the LPA accused Kobler of obstructing long awaited meetings with the rival group from the House of Representatives(HoR). She claimed that Kobler was trying to include other parties as well. According to Amtair Article 12 of the LPA says that "parties deriving their legitimacy from the agreement are to only amend, without involving other parties" A group of foreign ministers from Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria also said that the dialogue efforts must speed up.

The second key issue that Kobler deals with is the military situation. Kobler talks of the vicious attack on the Brak al Shati airbase on the 18th of May. He calls the attack a deliberate attempt to undermine the political process. Kobler makes no mention of Haftar's response to the attacks which was to seize the entire Al Jufra area and even advance towards Bin Walid. He has long threatened to enter Tripoli. Not a word about this in the section on the military situation. He mentions the Tripolii clashes in which militia supporters of the former Salvation government were driven from the city. There is not a word about the entrance of Egypt into the military situation. Complete silence on Derna and Egyptian air attacks in Libya. Things like that do not deserve a mention.

In a section dealing with unifying the security apparatus Kobler mentions that he met with Haftar in Benghazi. Haftar told him he wants to go ahead on the basis of the LPA and supported a political process to amend it. Kobler said|: "I encouraged him to let politics prevail and not to pursue military confrontation." Kobler does not seem to notice that Haftar is pursuing successfully a military path. Kobler recommended a meeting of officers from all parts of the country. However, Kobler does not report what Haftar thought of that idea!

Kobler goes on to discuss weaknesses in the economic situation: "The division of financial institutions, instability and low confidence in the banking sector continue to feed inflation and the lack of liquidity. The Central Bank has to decisively address the fiscal and monetary problems of Libya. Libya is still spending beyond its means and its foreign currency reserve is shrinking constantly." Kobler is no doubt correct but it may be difficult to deal with these problems in the face of the security situation but certainly they need to be addressed as Kobler notes. He does not provide any suggestions as to how this could be done. Kobler also claims that national reconciliation is necessary for a durable peace in Libya. However, it is not clear how in the present climate in Libya such reconciliation is possible.

Kobler suggests that the international community should be more strongly involved in finding a political solution. He notes that there should not be competing parallel processes not involving the UN:"Uncoordinated or parallel efforts risk undermining progress and complicating an already complex situation." Some Libyans may feel that part of the political problem is that many foreign nations have their own agendas, which may not be in the best interests of Libyans. All these international meetings have yet to produce any agreement as to how exactly the LPA is to be amended and the political division in the country resolved. Meanwhile Haftar is marching on with his own military solution and Operation Dignity. You will not find that term anywhere in Kobler's briefing.

Head of Libyan Unity government Faiez Serraj meets with opponents

(May 14)Faiez Serraj, head of the Presidential Council of the UN-brokered Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), along with Fathi Majbri the deputy president, had talks in Tunis with a group of House of Representatives (HoR) members mainly from the east.

The Tunis talks focused on possible developments from the meeting Serraj had earlier with the commander of the forces associated with the HoR, the Libyan National Army (LNA), Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The talks were held over a week ago in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). The meetings were described by many as positive and a breakthrough although there was no joint statement after the meetings. Separate statements were made by each side emphasizing quite different aspects of a proposed agreement. Nothing has been signed. There were to follow up talks this week. An interesting article analysing the situation can be found here. It emphasizes that there is no deal yet.

Issa-Al-Araibi a member of the group who is from Benghazi said the members told Serraj to hold more meetings with Haftar. Up until now, Al-Araibi has been an opponent of the Presidency Council (PC) and GNA that Serraj heads. The talks followed upon those two days ago at which Serraj head briefed about 50 members of the HoR on his meeting with Haftar. One member of the HoR said he was disappointed that Serraj had flown to Tunis rather than Cairo to meet Serraj. He wanted Haftar to meet Serraj in Cairo. He blamed hard-liners in Tripoli and Misrata for the cancellation of further second round talks scheduled to be held this week in Cairo.

While the details of any agreement still appear unclear, it seems certain that Haftar must be offered a significant role in any new unified government before the HoR will implement the terms of the LPA and vote confidence in the GNA government. There must also be agreement on amending the LPA by at least deleting section 8 that deprives Haftar of leadership of the armed forces of the unified GNA. This is a non-starter with many in the PC and certainly within the State High Council as well. There has been considerable reaction opposed to any such agreement. An important militia group demanded the resignation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs:A powerful brigade from Tripoli demanded Tuesday Foreign Minister-designate of UN-installed government, Mohamed Sayala, to resign for his recognition of Khalifa Haftar as “the General Commander of the Libyan Army.” Haitem Tajouri-led Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade, which protects HQ of the ministry, said work will be suspended inside the ministry in protest against Sayala’s recognition.

Nevertheless UN Special Envoy, Martin Kobler, expressed his optimism with his usual type of tweet with almost no substance or detailed information: "Very positive mtg w/ PM Serraj in #Tripoli. Discussed recent developments & way fwd. Strong international support for the political process." Another tweet indicates that Haftar is meeting again with Egyptian president Sisi: "Sisi meets Haftar in Cairo today. Egyptian president's office says he 'stressed the need to lift the arms embargo'." Sisi has been a strong supporter of Haftar. Perhaps next week an actual agreement will be signed although any agreement that gives Haftar a significant role in a unified GNA could very well cause an outright war against Haftar.

Six point plan for peace in Libya by UN envoy Martin Kobler

Martin Kobler, head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) yesterday tweeted the outline of a six-point "road map for peaceful Libya".

As he has said many times he regards the Libyan Political Agreement(LPA) signed in Skhirat, Morocco in December of 2015 as the core of any forthcoming peace talks. Yet the LPA has been one of the main roadblocks keeping the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) from voting confidence in the rival Government of National Accord (GNA) and its Presidency Council (PC). The last vote was on August 22, 2016 and failed to pass. There has been little progress since. Though there has been a meeting recently between head of the PC Faiez Serraj and head of the armed forces of the rival HoR government, Khalifa Haftar, and it was claimed to have been positive and resulted in an agreement. However, no formal statement was issued after the meeting, and the two sides ultimately issued separate statements that differed considerably. A number of contradictory accounts of details of what was agreed to have been circulating as indicated in a recent Digital Journal article.

As usual, what Haftar says is less important than what he leaves out. In order for the LPA to be used as a basis of a political solution it will need to be amended so that Section 8 making the PC rather than Haftar the commander of the Libyan Armed Forces is deleted. As opponents of the GNA have often pointed out the present GNA lacks any legitimacy:Article (12)

All institutions stipulated in the Libyan Political Agreement shall derive their legitimacy from the Constitutional Declaration and its amendment as annexed to this Agreement after its endorsement and adoption in its entirety, signing and entry into force. Should it be necessary to introduce subsequent amendment to the Constitutional Declaration that affects, whether directly or indirectly, the Agreement or any of the institutions that emanate from it, the House of Representatives and State

Council shall commit to achieve consensus among themselves to agree on the format of such amendment. The final endorsement of this amendment shall be given by the House of Representatives, without amendment, based on the mechanism stipulated in the Constitutional Declaration.

This would seem to allow a path to change the LPA, but Kobler appears to be seeking to amend the LPA by calling together Dialogue members chosen by the two sides, who he thinks, can simply amend the agreement. It is not clear exactly what sections of the LPA allow this if there are any. Kobler never gives details about such matters and reporters and analysts don't seem to bother about them at all, or at least discussion of the issue never makes it to the mainstream press. There is still no word about when and where the Dialogue members will meet. The HoR has chosen its members finally, after other members of the dialogue meeting in Tunis claimed to have already amended it something that has fallen off the press radar.

Kobler's second point is that the security apparatus should be united and they should be disallowed from using violence. Presumably he means unauthorized violence. I assume that he means disbanding the militias and forming a unified army and security apparatus instead of depending on militias as happens now..There are numerous militias with their own agendas often engaging in turf wars and some of them more like criminal gangs than groups providing security for the state. The LPA clearly saw this as necessary and has several portions dealing with the problem but virtually nothing has been done with results that are nothing short of disastrous. Clashes are endemic especially in the capital Tripoli. Kobler has no suggestions as how this unity of security can be accomplished.

The third point is that the financial and economic institutions should be supported so that they become stable and more in contact with the PC of the GNA. However, the Libyan Central Bank and the National Oil Companies must play a delicate balancing act as the eastern HoR government controls many areas where the oil wells's security is provided by forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar. Unless the funds from oil are divided in a manner acceptable to the east then the whole system could be shut down and everyone loses. There are signs that the Central Bank has at times refused necessary funds for the GNA to carry on all its activities. Again, Kobler has no advice as to how what he claims is necessary can be achieved.

Kobler then says: "Fourth is national reconciliation programs that include all the Libyan parties without any exclusion, while fifth is giving the governmental local bodies like municipalities more authorities, responsibilities and financial support to act each on the level of their municipal duties." The fourth point is well taken but may be difficult to set up in a manner that the meetings are not slanted in the direction of groups with their own agendas. The fifth point is complicated by the fact in the eastern part of the country under the influence of Khalifa Haftar many local authorities have been replaced by military officials. Kobler fails to even take note of this issue.

Kobler's final point is that neighboring countries should work with Libyan officials in both military and political divisions to facilitate a new round of "sincere dialogue". However, this ignores the fact that there are at least two significant sets of Libyan officials from the two rival governments. According to a UN resolution they should only deal with GNA officials but given the reality of the political division this makes no sense and countries violate the resolution all the time and no one says boo, They even deal with Ageela Saleh the sanctioned head of the HoR. While Kobler does point out some of the essential steps forward to solve the Libyan crisis, he says nothing about how what is necessary can be actually achieved. It remains to be seen if the recent meetings between Serraj and Haftar result in anything positive. There already appears to be renewed militia activity against the GNA by some militia in Tripoli.

Eastern commander Haftar finally meets with UN envoy Kobler

For almost a year, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) associated with the eastern-based government of the House of Representatives (HoR) has refused to meet with Martin Kobler UN envoy to Libya.

However, there was a surprise meeting between the two at Haftar's Rajma Headquarter just outside of Benghazi. Kobler sent a message that it had been a good meeting that had focused on the obstacles facing implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement and what would happen afterwards. The two men are said to have had a cordial meeting. It was in December of 2015 that the two last met.

Haftar has been increasingly critical of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya that Kobler heads. He turned down several earlier requests for meetings as described here as a waster of time and here.

Last September, Kobler told the UN Security Council that Kobler had to have a role in the new Libya. It is not clear whether the present Presidential Council(PC) of the Libyan Government of National Accord(GNA) would agree to this. Many, especially in the Hight State Council, want Haftar to have no role in the new government. The present Libya Political Agreement (LPA) section 8, assigns the role of commander of the armed forces to the PC temporarily. The HoR has always demanded the section be deleted. They want Haftar to be commander of the armed forces. This is a position the PC are never likely to accept. Haftar and the HoR government rejected Kobler's suggestion and said he was part of the problem and had to go. The present GNA was rejected last August 22. At the time, a new cabinet was to be presented within ten days. There is still no new lineup. A dialogue meeting was held in Tunis in January but the HoR representatives failed to participate and still have not appointed new members.

On March 7, the HoR met and voted to suspend any participation in the dialogue. On April 7th the group met again and set forth a number of conditions for taking part in the dialogue. The conditions included removing section 8 of the LPA and retaining Haftar as the commander of the Libyan armed forces. Neither conditions would be acceptable to the PC or High State Council I expect.

It is not clear why Haftar decided to meet Kobler now. Perhaps it was pressure from Kobler's new deputy Maria Ribeiro who met with HoR head Ageela Saleh and a number of HoR members. Kobler is due to be replaced but his first replacement a Palestinian was rejected by the US and the next suggestion by the US was rejected by Russia. Kobler has been staying on but as a sort of lame-duck envoy.

Haftar's press office on Facebook also mentioned the meeting saying to two "faced topics regarding Libya's future, difficulties and obstacles on the path of the political accord." There were no further details. The talks appear to have accomplished nothing. Haftar has continual to stress, counter to Kobler's position that there is only a political solution to the Libyan political crisis, that there is also a military solution. The head of the HoR government, Ageela Saleh, has said that there is only a military solution to the problem. There are already clashes between forces loyal to the GNA and those loyal to Haftar in southern Libya near the city of Sabha. There is no sign that the meeting resulted in any new initiatives to solve the political crisis. A recent tweet noted: Haftar: We are seeking to consolidate disciplined forces under a legitimate banner. #Libya. Who knows what that means. Perhaps he is looking to recruit more members for his Libyan National Army. Meanwhile Saleh suggests, according to a tweet, a new mission for a renewed dialogue: Aghilah Salah " We will go back to dialogue to remove #PC as it failed to deliver " There is no sign of any new dialogue meeting as yet.

Libya Dialogue members meet in Tunisia but without eastern members

(January 22) The UN-brokered Libya Dialogue met in the town of Mammamet in Tunisia to assess the progress of the Presidency Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and discuss changing parts of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA).

However, the delegation from the eastern-based rival government the House of Representatives (HoR) was absent from the meeting. According to HoR spokesperson Abdullah Bulaihak, the parliamentary deputy president Emhemed Shouaib and others were ordered not to attend by Ageela Saleh head of the HoR. Apparently Shouaib and the other members of the HoR delegation are no longer representatives of the HoR. There are unconfirmed reports that Shouaib was to fly back to Tobruk, the site of the HoR government, for consultations. Bulahaik said a new team had to be chosen and this would not happen until tomorrow at the earliest.

The members who met anyway to start deliberations decided only to ask the HoR who will be their new representatives. The discussions are about proposals that reduce the size of the Presidency Council from nine members to three as in an earlier draft of the LPA. The Presidency Council head would not also be Prime Minister but there would be a separate Prime Minister in charge of the cabinet. Apparently this structure is supported by Ageela Saleh and many members of the the HoR. It is unlikely any decision taken without HoR delegates present would be accepted by the HoR.

The members of the Libyan Dialogue must be acceptable to the UN special envoy Martin Kobler. He is unlikely to accept members whom he thinks are likely to vote for changes that he thinks may cause further divisions or other changes not acceptable to him. The HoR does not have the power to force its own choice of delegates on Kobler as membership of the Dialogue is a decision of Kobler. Names may not be the most pressing problem. Saleh wants a five-person HoR team rather than the present four. This would give the HoR more power. Another problem is that the HoR itself is not united about who should be on their team. Although Kobler did not attend today's meeting, the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) organized the meeting site, bought Dialogue members plane tickets and arranged their accommodation.

The meeting has already been postponed twice. Originally the meeting was supposed to take place in Ghadames last week. It was then set to meet in Tunis on Wednesday but was then postponed until Sunday. The proposal from the HoR for a three person Presidency Council would see a representative from each of the three regions of Libya. However, the HoR is apparently finding it difficult to decide who they should name as their representative.

According to the Libya Herald, Saleh is willing to have the present head of the PC Faiez Serraj as head of the PC which is reduced in power as well as numbers, but only so long as Khalifa Haftar remains as military chief of the Libyan National Army, elections take place for the State Council and he remains as HoR president. Some of these demands sound impossible to satisfy. According to the present LPA, the PC has the function of commander in chief. Section 8 of the present LPA demands this. There is no way many members of the GNA and the High State Council would stand for any change to the LPA that would allow Haftar to remain as commander in chief of the armed forces. In fact, some will not countenance him having any role in the GNA. In the past, Kobler has refused to allow amendments to the LPA and has claimed it could not be amended but now he claims that the LPA is not written in stone.

It is not clear why the existing members of the HoR delegation are being replaced. What is clear is that if Saleh is demanding that Haftar remain as commander of the armed forces there will likely be no agreement with other members of the Dialogue. If there is then the GNA will simply implode. The Tunisia Dialogue meetings if they ever even start are unlikely to reach any solution to the present impasse between the GNA, the HoR and Haftar.

The HoR rejected the LPA for the second time on August 22 last year. There is no sign that there has been any progress towards holding another meeting at which the HoR would amend the constitutional declaration of 2011 as required and approve a new GNA government that is presented to them.

Libya's neighbors warn against using military force to solve political problems

Meeting in Cairo on Saturday representatives from all of Libya's neighbors including Libya itself plus Tunisia, Niger, Chad, Algeria, Sudan, and Egypt warned Libya's factions not to settle their differences through military force.

Egypt announced that efforts were underway to bring leaders together to chart a joint vision for Libya. The UN envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, also attended.

A final statement from the meeting said: “A comprehensive political dialogue between all Libya parties is the only way out of this crisis.” The group decisively rejected a military solution. There have been some clashes between groups associated with the eastern Libyan National Army(LNA) of Khalifa Haftar associated with the government of the House of Representatives and others associated with Misrata forces loyal to the rival UN-brokered Government of National Accord.

The statement praised those who defeated the Islamic State(IS) in Sirte, mostly brigades from Misrata but also those from the LNA who were fighting militants in Benghazi. However, they expressed concern that they were still remnants of the IS present elsewhere in Libya. Recently US airstrikes claim to have killed 80 IS fighters at 2 camps near Sirte. The costly mission by two B-2 stealth bombers from the US was President Obama's last show of force in Libya. The attack was coordinated with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) The US had carried out air strikes, Operation Odyssey Lightning, from August 1st last year until the liberation of Sirte on December 19th last year.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri said that plans were underway to have a meeting of leaders of the GNA, the House of Representatives (HoR) and Khalifa Haftar commander of the LNA . This is extraordinary in that these are described as Libya's main factions. Two of them are rival governments but Haftar is a commander appointed by the HoR. How does he become a third faction? He actually seems to have considerable control over the HoR. The HoR will be unwilling to vote confidence in the GNA unless Haftar is satisfied with the terms. In particular he will not allow himself to be replaced as commander in chief of the LNA. The Libyan Political Agreement(LPA) as it exists now has sections that give the Presidency Council(PC) of the GNA the role of commander in chief. The PC has already claimed that role even though the HoR has not voted confidence in the GNA. Neither Haftar nor the rival HoR government recognize the legitimacy of the GNA.

Last August 22, the HoR voted against accepting the GNA. There was supposed to be a new cabinet presented within ten days. Months have passed and there is still no word about what is to happen. The presently planned meeting remains vague and no mention is even made of the need to have a vote of confidence in the GNA and to amend the constitutional declaration of 2011 as is required by the LPA. Shukri said that the meeting was planned to "build trust, understanding, and search for a joint vision". It seems that in all the many months since August 22, nothing has been worked out to solve the crisis. The LPA which has always been touted as the only way forward is not even mentioned.

Why this meeting would be held in Egypt is hard to fathom. Egypt is a strong supporter of Haftar and the HoR rather than the UN-backed GNA. Shukri in fact called for the ban on arms sales to Libya to be lifted. He said the LNA was a legitimate entity: “It’s inappropriate for this ban to stand and we continue to demand that it be rescinded.” However, most western countries and a UN resolution claim that the UN-backed GNA is the sole legitimate Libyan government and although the UN is willing to allow some exemptions from the arms ban it would not be to the LNA which does not recognize the GNA. Perhaps with the new Trump administration in the US and with Russian support for Haftar, we will see him gain even more strength. The GNA appears to be losing more and more credibility as it cannot provide for basic needs in the areas that it governs and is challenged not only by Haftar but by an ongoing coup attempt by members of the former Salvation Government which has taken over the Rixos Hotel headquarters of the GNA's High Council of State. While support has come for the GNA in terms of the Italian embassy reopening, it remains to be seen if it can continue as it is for much longer.

Misrata Military Council and Union of Tripoli Revolutionaries criticize UN-brokered unity government

Misrata Military Council together with the Union of Revolutionaries in the city demanded that the UN-brokered Government of National Accord make its position clear on the situation in Benghazi and Khalifa Haftar whom they call a war criminal.

Misrata is the city in western Libya which provided most of the brigades of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsoos (BAM) which carried out the offensive against the Islamic State and ultimately liberated the city of Sirte their last stronghod in Libya. While opposed to the Islamic State many support the Islamists within the Benghazi Shura Council of Jihadists which is also a foe of Haftar in Benghazi. Field Marshall Haftar is the commander of the Libyan National Army(LNA), the armed forces of the Al-Thinni government associated with the House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk in the east. Haftar does not recognize the GNA and his Operation DIgnity started in May of 2014 is designed to rid Libya of any Islamists who are opposed to him including the Benghazi Shural Council along with the Islamic State in Benghazi. He also opposes many of the militia who supprt the GNA for now. Haftar is also besieging the city of Derna run by the Derna Shura Council, Islamists instrumental in driving the Islamic State out of the city.

The Council met with commanders of Misrata military brigades. The group also demanded that the National Oil Corporation(NOC) state its position on the use of oil ports by Haftar forces for military attacks against GNA-associated forces. The complaints come after a strike by Haftar forces targeted members of the group in the south near the town of Sebha. One attack targeted a C-130 aircraft carrying a delegation from Misrata to Al-Jufra. Colonel Ibrahim Al-Mai was wounded in the attack and his right arm had to be amputated. Failure of the NOC to clarify its position could result in the NOC being a partner in Haftar's killing of Libyans the group said. Military sources claimed that the fighter that attacked the Al-Jufra airbase came from the oil port of Ras Lanuf one of four ports captured by Haftar back in September last year.

The Presidency Council of the Libyan Government of National Accord appears to be in disarray. Recently Serraj the head voided a number of decisions of Fathi Al Majburi PC deputy prime minister who made a number of decisions while Serraj was away without calling together the entire Presidential Council. Al Majburi is said to be unhappy with the decision and to have stormed a meeting of Serraj with the UN envoy Martin Kobler according to a recent tweet. The deputy head of the PC Mousa Kouni recently resigned citing the failure of the group to achieve its aims and claiming that the Libya Political Agreement (LPA) was impossible to implement. To make matters worse a recent tweet said that the spokesperson of the southern-pbased Third Force, Mohammed Qaliwan has resigned because of lack of support from the UN-brokered GNA government. Meanwhile UN envoy Martin Kobler continues to repeat his tired refrain about implementing the LPA in a tweet: " @KoblerSRSG from #Tripoli: it's time to implement the LPA & move ahead and to put the interest of #Libya people above every other interest." However Kobler now seems to have changed his tune about amendments being made to the LPA as a tweet reports: "UN envoy Martin Kobler: "Only Libyans can decide whether to make amendments to the political agreement. #Libya "

Russia expresses support for eastern Libyan field marshall Khalifa Haftar

In spite of pledging support to the UN-brokered Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), Russia and other countries such as Egypt and the UAE are supporting the rival House of Representatives (HOR) and Khalifa Haftar commander of its armed forces.

Haftar has been to Russia as recently as the end of November and he has had good coverage in the Russian press. There was even a fake news item in Sputnik in which a suggestion by Ali Gotrani a member of the Presidential Council (PC) of the GNA of making Haftar the temporary ruler of Libya was presented as if it were an actuality. Most members of the PC and of the GNA would reject Haftar having such a role. Many want him to have no role at all in a unified government.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov was critical of UN envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler whom he accused of favoring other political forces rather than Haftar and the HoR. Gatilov said that Libyans had to find a compromise on Haftar's participation in a new leadership. What Gatilov is doing is going against the UN resolution that recognizes the GNA as the sole legitimate Libyan government and also warns about having dealings with "parallel institutions" such as the government of the HoR. At the same time the sanctioned head of the HoR, Ageela Saleh, talks with a number of foreign officials in an attempt to solve the political crises and find a role for Haftar.

For some time now, Martin Kobler, has also insisted that Haftar have a significant role in any unified government and according to the Libyan Express even in the armed forces:The Head of the UNSMIL, Martin Kobler, said Friday that the most important issue in Libya now is to solve the current crisis by forming a unity strong army with Khalifa Haftar having a very essential role in it.Russia appears to be aligning itself more closely with the Egyptian president el-Sisi and Haftar in Libya. Given that the Trump administration appears to want a more positive relationship with Russia, the U.S. may come to also throw more support behind Haftar and the HoR strengthening Haftar even more.

Although Haftar probably worked for the CIA for some time and lived for a decade near their headquarters in the U.S., he also had military training in the USSR in the seventies. Gatilov praised Haftar for his role in fighting terrorists including the Islamic State (IS) even though he did nothing to help drive the IS from Sirte and regards many of the militia who carried out the offensive as his enemies. He is also besieging Derna, which is run by an Islamist group who were instrumental in ousting the IS from the city. Gatilov also praised Haftar for helping increase oil production. Of course he did so by wresting the eastern oil ports away from Ibrahim Jadhran, who had supported the GNA and struck a deal with them. So far, Russia appears to have kept to the UN embargo on shipping arms to Libya. It has also retained contacts with members of the GNA government. Kobler has called on Russia to help the GNA by using its influence on eastern forces.

There is no sign that Haftar is really that interested in all the frantic attempts to find some strategy by which he can be enticed to join the GNA. Western support for the GNA continues but appears hollow as on the ground Haftar continues to strengthen his position, attacking his opponents and threatening to move on Tripoli. So far there is no sign of any viable plan that would see Haftar join the GNA.

Algeria becomes more involved in trying to solve Libyan political crisis

Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) of the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar visited Algeria at the invitation of the Algerian government.

The visit comes after the President of the HoR government Ageela Saleh had just visited Algiers the capital for talks with the Abdelkader Messahel, the minister of Maghreb, African and Arab affairs. Eastern representatives including Saleh and Haftar have had recent talks in Cairo in Egypt and even in Moscow. Algiers now appears to be anxious to be involved. Foreign officials appear anxious to talk to Saleh even though he is under sanctions by the U.S. and the EU for blocking progress of the implementation of the Libya Political Agreement (LPA).

Haftar was accompanied by the head of the air force Saqr Geroushi. Both Haftar and Geroushi were on a list of people to be sanctioned by the EU back in July of 2015 but the sanctions never came about but no explanation was given that I have ever seen. Haftar met not only with Messahel but also with the Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellai.

The invitations are part of a new initiative by Algeria to be more active in trying to find a solution to the Libyan crisis. No doubt it also wants to increase its influence rather than have Egypt become the strongest influence on the development of events in Libya. Many analysts believe that the LPA has failed and new ways must be found to solve the crisis based on a new Libya-Libya dialogue independent of foreign intervention of the sort involved in creating the LPA and the associated Government of National Accord(GNA). As part of a plan to set up such a dialogue, Algeria is having talks with numerous Libyan stakeholders associated not only with the HoR but with the rival UN-brokered GNA as well.A release by the Algerian state press service said after the talks with Saleh: “The importance of an inclusive inter-Libyan dialogue which leads to a solution to the crisis and to national reconciliation was emphasized.”

Until recently, the UN envoy to Libya Martin Kobler has insisted that the time for dialogue is over and that the existing draft of the LPA is final and not to be amended. As the Libya Observer noted:In January of this year, Martin Kobler indicated that the Libyan political agreement, signed on December 2015, is final and no way open to new amendments. Three months later, he rejected the five proposed amendments to the Libyan political agreement by Grand Mufti Sadiq Al-Gharyani in order to recognize it and support the Presidency Council.Recently however Kobler has taken quite a different tack:All outstanding questions, including the supreme commandership and the chain of command of the Libyan army, can be addressed by the process incorporated within the Libyan Political Agreement. The Agreement incorporated a mechanism for change – its articles are not set in stone.Kobler does not say what the mechanism for change is within the LPA. It can be amended but only after it is passed as I understand it. However, the terms of the agreement have never stopped Kobler from forging ahead with whatever he wants to do.

The GNA was denied a vote of confidence as required by the LPA back on August 22. There has been no new cabinet suggested, and no meeting scheduled to have another vote. We should soon discover what new plan Kobler has to get around the terms of the agreement.

UN General Secretary on Libyan situation after one year of the Libyan Political Agreement

(December 17) A year ago on the 17th of December, selected members of the Libya Dialogue signed the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) in Skhirat Morroco. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon today commended all the Libyans who took part in the process.

A spokesperson for the UN General-Secretary issued a statement that said in part:

The Secretary-General commends all Libyans who engaged in the process, in the spirit of reconciliation, inclusion and human rights. The road to peace is long and requires hard work and commitment. Much has been achieved in the past year. The Presidency Council was formed and operates from Tripoli. Oil production has increased and significant advances have been made against terrorism across the country.

As is common, in UN statements much that is significant is left out. The LPA was not signed by either of the two separate legislatures as was originally intended. There was the Salvation Government of the General National Council(GNC) based in Tripoli and the House of Representatives government based in Tobruk. Neither parliament has ever ratified the LPA. Although there were members of both parliaments who signed, none were authorized by their respective parties to do so. The agreement was in effect manufactured by the UN as a means of getting around the fact that neither parliament would agree to the LPA. The text of the entire agreement can be found here. Some dates indicating when certain things are to be accomplished are long in the past.

In a masterful understatement Ban Ki-Moon notes that the slow pace at which the LPA is being implemented has not brought the stability and security to Libya that Moon says all Libyans deserve. In the parts of Libya run by the UN-brokered Government of National Accord, there have been cash shortages, power outages, some water shortages and many clashes among rival militia groups. There have been many kidnappings as well. There is no sign of the rival House of Representatives signing on to the LPA. The eastern area is being increasingly militarized by the commander of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar. He rejects the LPA and the GNA and even threatens to attack Tripoli.

Ban urges those not involved in the LPA process to join in. It is not clear why Haftar and his supporters should do so. He has seized the main oil ports of the oil crescent in the east and allies have control of the main pipeline system in the west carrying oil from two fields to the coast. He appears to have worked out some type of agreement with the National Oil Company but no detail has every been released. His Zintan allies in the west also must have reached some agreement but no mention is ever made of what this involves in reports.

Moon expressed his support for his Special Representative, Martin Kobler, and the staff of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). He also praised the Africa Union, EU, League of Arab States for their strong support of the political process. All seem to have simply been cheerleaders for whatever the UN and GNA did.

The statement today follows on an earlier statement on December 6 to the UN Security Council. In it he noted that the LPA was moving slower than it should in implementation, and associated institutions were operating below expectations. In that statement he mentioned the plan to form a Presidential Guard which would protect the government and institutions. He pointed out the difficulties of relying on militia.

There are no specific plans or even ideas as to how the HoR and Haftar are to be incorporated within the GNA or even how the LPA might be changed. It is still regarded as the basis for a way forward. Haftar is not even mentioned by name. The crucial specific problem of his continuing as commander of the armed forces is not mentioned. The statement gives little information about what has happened and even less about what the UN specifically intends to do in the future.

Interview with UN Envoy Martin Kobler on situation in Libya

The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) was signed on the 17th of December nearly a year ago. In an interview for the Libya Herald, Martin Kobler, head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) assesses the progress in implementing the LPA.

In an earlier interview, GNA Prime Minister and head, Faiez Serraj, had admitted that the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and its Presidency Council (PC) had failed to make progress since it had arrived in Tripoli at the end of March. Kobler defended the LPA and the GNA noting that the GNA had wide international support and forces loyal to it had successfully fought the Islamic State(IS). While Kobler is correct about the international support it has not translated into resources for the GNA to tackle its many problems. While the Al-Banyan Al-Marsous (Solid Structure or BAM) forces have virtually eliminated IS from its last stronghold in Sirte, it has mostly been achieved through brigades linked to the city of Misrata. The GNA has yet to have its own army and has failed to convince rival commander in the east Khalifa Haftar to serve under the command of the GNA. Haftar contributed nothing to liberating Sirte even though he had promised to do so.

Kobler admitted that the LPA had "implementation problems" a main problem being that the House of Representatives has failed to pass the constitutional amendment that is required to incorporate the LPA in the Transitional Constitutional Declaration of 2011. There seems to be a new emphasis on this step whereas before the emphasis was on the acceptance of the GNA through a vote of confidence. The HoR has twice voted down confidence motions in the GNA the last time being August 22. At the time a new GNA with a much smaller cabinet was to be presented within ten days. Kobler says nothing about the GNA presenting this new cabinet and here it is now December 4. He simply notes that the "HoR has accepted the LPA in principle and as a framework, and recognizes the Presidency Council". I am not sure what he means by the HoR recognizing the Presidency Council. It considers the Al-Thinni government of the HoR based in Tobruk to be the legitimate government of Libya not the GNA. Perhaps he means as part of the LPA. However, the HoR government does not believe the GNA is legally in existence until the HoR amends the constitutional declaration and votes confidence in it.

Kobler fails to mention that the HoR specifically wants section eight of the LPA deleted. The section makes the PC rather than Khalifa Haftar head of the armed forces. This is a key sticking point. As a way around the situation Kobler says: ‘‘There is a consensus by the major international stakeholders that the LPA should remain the framework of development. This does not mean that it is set in stone and it is very important that there is a process to discuss the deficiencies of the LPA." Kobler has changed his position in that he has constantly claimed that the LPA cannot be amended at least until it has been passed as it is.

Kobler said the Libya Dialogue members requested the HoR to pass the constitutional amendment. Apparently this is thought to be necessary to make the mainly advisory High State Council functional. Perhaps it is more a concern that the group have some semblance of legality. The process of their formation was highly suspect. A controversial decision by them supposedly made them the legislature of the GNA until the HoR voted confidence in the GNA.

The Libya Herald notes that the HoR is quite clearly refusing to pass the constitutional amendment. A two-thirds majority would be required to pass it. Kobler says:‘‘The political problems have to be solved. And I request the Libyan stakeholders to sit together, including members of the HoR, to pass the constitutional amendment. Or at least to say what should be done to make the LPA work.‘The problems have to be put on the table and then people can discuss it. The State Council is not functioning, the HoR is not functioning. All the institutions are not fulfilling their duties, including also the HoR.

It took the HoR six months and eight days to decide that they reject the list of the GNA members: it could have been done in a few days. Now, the HoR has, as per the LPA, the duty to fulfill. To pass the constitutional amendment and to endorse the GNA’’.Events should have been telling the UN for a long time now that the the LPA is not working out. Kobler cannot even bring himself to mention Khalifa Haftar and the problem of section eight. Kobler wants the parties to say what changes they have in mind to the LPA. He has been told many times about removing section eight and has been told many times that the GNA cabinet is too large among other problems. Now the parties are to get together to tell the UN what they want done since of course: "We the international community are not imposing anything. It is up to the Libyans what to do." This has never been true and is unlikely ever to be true. External players have too much to win or lose, particularly with respect to Libya's oil resources, not to attempt to influence the form the Libyan government takes.

Kobler suggests that the constitutional amendment needs to be signed so that the LPA and the GNA with the PC and State High Council become part of the "constitutional setup of the country" and Libyans become owners of the LPA. But before the HoR could abolish the LPA it would be accepting it with section eight, which is not acceptable to the HoR. Why would the HoR pass an amendment that accepts an LPA they reject? There is no sign of any meeting to do so.

Kobler complains that at present there is no real owner of the LPA. Amazing, all along Kobler has justified the setting up of the GNA, the PC, moving to Tripoli etc. by reference to the LPA even though the LPA is apparently not owned, whatever that means. If the HoR passes the constitutional amendment it would become owner of the agreement. Perhaps what Kobler has in mind is that if the HoR passed the amendment it would then be the legislature of the GNA. It could then amend the LPA. However, one can imagine what would happen at the level of the PC and the High State Council if the HoR decided to make Haftar head of the GNA armed forces.

Kobler agrees that the GNA cannot continue to be protected by militia but needs a Libyan national army. The Herald pointedly asks Kobler, given that he seems to have no positive dynamic between Ageela, Haftar and the HoR, if he is part of the problem and should perhaps step aside. No doubt this is a question many would ask! Koblerreplies: ”No. I feel overwhelmed by the degree of sympathy wherever I am. In the markets, everywhere. People personally tell me you and the UN have to do more. Please stay with us. We need your support as the international community. You have to be better. Stay with us. Accompany us on this way to peace and security. And I feel this very strongly’’. He admits that some people in Tobruk might not like him. He was unable to leave Tobruk airport recently because of protests.

Kobler notes that the GNA is recruiting a Presidential Guard to help protect it. He does not mention that the previous Presidential Guard defected and is now supporting members of the former Salvation Government who are occupying the Rixos hotel facilities as part of an attempted coup. He notes that an army has to be built up and a police force as well. At the same time some way must be found to either disband militias or incorporate them into a national army or police. However, almost nothing seems to be happening along these lines. Rival militias clashed in Tripoli for several days recently as shown on the appended video.