Libya peace talks in Geneva abandoned in late February

(February 25)  Events change quickly. Earlier in the day there was a reports that Haftar forces and the GNA had agreed to a ceasefire at UN talks in Geneva. However, the two sides almost immediately scrapped the deal but then abandoned the talks and left Geneva.

Earlier ceasefire report

According to a report the two sides reached a formal agreement on Monday at UN talks in Geneva after a shaky ceasefire. The internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) had walked out of the talks when commander Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) had continued attacks but have been convinced to return to them.

Failure of UN Geneva talks

The two sides suspended participation in the talks even after the UN had insisted that negotiations would go ahead. The talks were aimed at ending more than ten months of fighting between the GNA and Haftar's forces. Haftar has been trying to take Tripoli the capital for some time but so far has not been able to do so. The GNA controls only part of western Libya while the rest is at least nominally controlled by Haftar and allies.

The leader of the Haftar side's Geneva committee, Ahmaida Erouhma, claimed that his group's refusal to participate in the negotiations were due to the fact that the UN approved only 8 of 13 names he put forward for the Haftar delegation.

UN still claims diplomacy is the only solution

Given the suspension of talks it would appear that fighting between Haftar forces and the GNA will continue. Although most western nations give lip support to the GNA only Turkey appears to be providing any substantial military aid. However, several countries have supplied arms to Haftar including Egypt and the UAE and have also provided air support. Russia too supports Haftar and so does France. The UN appears reluctant to brand Haftar the aggressor as he clearly is. Even many who have little respect for the GNA do not want Haftar to become the de facto ruler of Libya,.

Haftar has always been disdainful of diplomacy and UN attempts at peace negotiations. He only engages in negotiations after he feels strong pressure and can use them to consolidate his own territorial advances. Unlike the UN he believes not only that a military solution is possible but is desirable, with him winning of course.

The UN downplays the aggressive behavior of Haftar and UN officials say that talks will continue. The Geneva talks for them were the only track for peace talks and there is no other option for them. The UN will simply remain an impotent bystander pleading with both sides to lay down their arms. There seems no sign of a resolution to the conflict as efforts to stop arms flowing into the region may do little except perhaps disadvantage the GNA as most of their arms come by sea.

French confirm meeting between Serraj and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Paris on July 25

                                                          Emmanuel Macron French President
                                                       
Faiez Serraj the head of the Presidential Council(PC) of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) is set to meet Haftar who is the head of the armed forces, the Libyan National Army (LNA) associated with the House of Representatives (HoR) based in the east. The meeting is to be in Paris tomorrow at the invitation of the French President Emmanuel Macron.

It is also expected that the incoming UN envoy Ghassan Salame will attend. He did not attend a meeting two weeks ago of a team from the HoR and the  GNA's High State Council. The group is working on amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement. However, there has been no announcement as to when or even if the HoR is to meet to approve the changes or what the changes are.

Even at this late date, the evening before the expected meeting, Serraj's office has refused to confirm or deny that he is even going to Paris. This is incredible and surely is an indication that there are unsolved problems about the meeting. There has not been any official comment from Haftar either although reportedly sources close to him say he is going.

As with other countries, France has maintained links with both rival government that of  the GNA and the rival HoR government. Macron has appointed Jean-Yves Le Drian as foreign minister. Le Drian favors stronger backing for  Haftar.

Haftar and Serraj met earlier in May in Abu Dhabi. The meeting was hailed at the time as a breakthrough. However, in spite of all the reports of agreements, no joint communique was ever issued and no actual agreements were ever signed off. They were said to have agreed on parliamentary elections, a truce, the need to fight terrorism, the development of a united army, and an end to the UN arms embargo. Perhaps the same issues will come up as Serraj recently suggested holding presidential and parliamentary elections next March. The head of the HoR Ageela Saleh rejected Serraj's suggestions and said that Serraj had no right to call for anything. Saleh does  not recognize the PC or GNA.

A Reuters report cites diplomats as saying that the talks will simply try to reach agreement on key principles, namely that the Libya Political Agreement is the basis for progress, that there was no military solution, and the Libyan military should be under civilian control. It is far from clear that Haftar would agree to these principles. After bringing the two into agreement the UN would implement the deal and set up elections.

The Italians were angry that they had not been informed of nor been involved in setting up the meeting. The Libya Herald reported just recently that Faiez Serraj and his foreign minister Mohamed Siala had arrived in Paris for talks. The Herald noted: " The French authorities have kept a tight control over the news about the meeting. Even this morning the Elysée Palace media office said that it still did not have full details about the encounter." This meeting has obviously not been at all well planned. One wonders how it can possibly turn out well.

However, in a statement, the Elysee said that president Macron would meet the two for consultations on getting Libya out of its crisis. Apparently, the French hope to have an agreement for when the new UN envoy Salame takes up his post. The statement said: “The challenge is to build a state capable of meeting the basic needs of Libyans and endowed with a regular and unified army under the authority of the civil power. It is a necessity for the control of Libya’s territory and its borders to fight terrorist groups, and arms and migrant traffickers.” The talks are supposed to take place at the chateau La Celle Saint-Cloud that is owned by the foreign ministry.

The Italians worry that the France is trying to propel Haftar to power and not support the PC which Italy has strongly backed. Yet French Foreign Minister Le Drian who is a strong supporter of Haftar told his Italian counterpart Angelino Alfano: “In this matter [Libya], we can do nothing, one without the other. It’s an issue we share.” However, it appears that France hopes that it can arrange something that Haftar will sign on to and that will involve the PC being in effect sidelined.

Libyan UN-brokered government's head outlines a road map to peace

                                           Troops loyal to GNA

Fayez al-Serraj, head of the Presidential Council of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA)  noted that he and his government had tried to bridge the gap between it and the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government, and had always tried to achieve reconciliation but without success. Serraj said that representatives of the HoR and the GNA's High Council of State had been unable to live up to their privileges regarding their sovereign positions. One might equally claim that the GNA was not able to do so either in that it was unable to present a government to the HoR that could gain the confidence of the HoR as is required by the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA). It lost the vote twice, the last time on August 22, 2016.

There have been earlier so-called road maps to peace one near the end of May suggested by Martin Kobler and an earlier one in the middle of February. Neither was a success. Serraj claimed that there was security in the capital Tripoli. While there may be peace temporarily it is not clear that the various militia are under control of the GNA and there are militia threatening the city from outside. The eastern commander Haftar also has said several times he intends to liberate the  city.

Serraj urged uniting military institutions and placing them under civilian authority. He also suggested declaring an amnesty. No doubt at least some military groups and militia in western Libya would be unwilling to accept a united army if that army were commanded by Haftar.

Serraj also urged that there be presidential and parliamentary elections in March of 2018. Serraj said on TV: "Ceasefire in all cities across Libya except places where fighting terror is ongoing, forming a High Council of National Reconciliation with 100 members and forming dialogue committees under the sponsorship of the UN to discuss elections law and constitution amendment." Serraj also suggested that committees should be formed with the HoR to join divided institutions. Yet, Ageela Saleh, the speaker of the HoR rejected Serraj's road map. Saleh also said that there would be no elections until a constitution was ready.

It is not clear that Serraj developed his road map in consultation with the other 8 members of the PC or if he talked it over with members of the High State Council or any members of the House of Representatives.

The Libya Herald also reported on Serraj's speech mentioning aspects left out by the Observer.  Serraj advocated a national program to gather up weapons, and to demobilize militias. It is not clear how this could be done. There is no central force that Serraj controls at present that could do this. The security problem and building up a national army with disarming of militia is something that simply has not transpired. Serraj also said there should be a crackdown on corruption, smuggling and human trafficking.

Serraj noted that there had to be respect for all the different cultural components of Libya including the Amazigh, Tebu, and Tuareg communities.The proposed National Reconciliation Council would have branches in all towns and areas, and would prepare a national conference to end the current divisions and enmities. The HoR, backed by Field Marshal Haftar,  might not agree to any such process and could keep areas under its control from sending representatives. Alternatively, they could simply vet any representatives to be sent to assure they would support the HoR and Haftar.

Serraj would bypass the efforts of the Constitutional Drafting Assembly and he presents a series of proposals that would see the head of the state directly elected, who would then nominate a new government. He also proposed that meanwhile the HoR and State Council set up a joint committee that would agree on amendments to the Constitutional Declaration that would set out the powers of the head of state. The HoR and State Council already has members taking part in a dialogue to come up with amendments to the Libya Political Agreement.

Serraj managed not to mention Khalifa Haftar in his entire speech, nor of others who do not accept the GNA such as Khalifa Ghwell's followers loyal to the former Salvation Government and who recently clashed with forces loyal to the GNA east of  Tripoli. It is doubtful that Serraj has the power to follow through with much of what he outlines in his road map. Opposition to his road map may be sufficient to prevent most of what he proposes from becoming reality.

Eastern commander gives opponents 6 months to reach an agreement

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) associated with the House of Representatives (HoR) government based in eastern Libya gave the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) 6 months to reach a reconciliation.

If there is no agreement based upon a modification of the Skhirat Libya Political Agreement (LPA) of December 2015 then Haftar will take action to forge a military solution. In a meeting with eastern tribesmen and elders on Tuesday Haftar suggested that he would overthrow the GNA and end the suffering of the people: "December is very near. All these officials on the scene now will go down in the ash heap of history once we decide that enough is enough in Libya. Only the coming six months or even less will define what Libya would be like. We will act tough when we feel fit and we will never listen to any party."

Both Haftar and his spokesperson Ahmed Al-Mismari gave the six-month ultimatum. HoR member Ziad Daghi wanted to know exactly what was meant by the threat and why it was not carried out right away.: "Why not act now and end the suffering of the people if there are some solutions on the table? Why wait for December." Haftar said that efforts were underway to form a committee coming from all Libyan cities to study and analyse all the current initiatives to put an end to the present unrest and end the suffering of the cities. There is no mention of the LPA or a meeting of the Dialogue committee already chosen by both the GNA and HoR to discuss amendments to the LPA. The former envoy Martin Kobler was to set up a meeting but nothing ever happened and the new envoy has not yet said anything.

The last GNA government was rejected by the HoR back on August 22 of 2016 and at the time there was to be a meeting within ten days. Ten months later there is still no meeting.

Haftar said: "We have liberated the oil facilities and all the money of the oil is going for the Central Bank of Libya and for foreign entities to the best interest of certain agendas in the current fight for power in the country instead of going to ordinary people standing in lines in front of banks." One can be sure that the money also goes to fund the House of Representative (HoR) salaries and also to fund Haftar's LNA. Haftar would not allow the National Oil Company to operate if this were not the case. If there is no resolution, Haftar promises: "A force from western Libya, another from southern Libya particularly from Sabha and a third one from the eastern region will enter Tripoli."

This is just another of several earlier announcements by Haftar that he would liberate Tripoli. Back in December of 2016 Haftar called for war in Tripoli and asked groups loyal to him west of Tripoli to help him. As far back as 2015 Haftar said he was betting on a milltary solution. While he had what some described as a breakthrough meeting with head of the Presidential Council of the GNA back in May there was no real agreement that came out of it. It probably was a ruse to make it look as if Haftar would accept a political solution. Haftar was likely forced into the meeting by pressure from his powerful supporters.

The Libya Herald and mainstream media have yet to say anything about Haftar's pronouncement. Nor has the UN or the GNA. However, there are several tweets on the issue. One tweet claims: " Haftar gives politicians 6mos to end #Libya conflict. Given his successful obstruction of talks, he's really saying: do what I want in 6mos." Another says: "Hafter We already have troops inside #tripoli Our Army will enter the capital soon. We r building strong army now To make all respect #libya." Probably for now nothing much may happen. We will see what reaction if any the UN and GNA have to Haftar's threats. I expect it will be muted as more and more countries which claim that they are solely in support of the GNA are actually changing their tune including most recently France. Suddenly the LPA as the sole basis for negotiation appears to be vanishing as if it were reduced to the grin of the Cheshire Cat. Everone is now to see Haftar as part of the solution even though he has been such an obstruction to the dialogue process that he was once listed to be sanctioned by the EU back in July of 2015. Haftar claimed the sanction threats were meaningless. In this case, he was correct.

Eastern commander Haftar captures central desert area of Al Jufra in Libya

(June 7)Forces loyal to Field Marshal Kahlifa Hafter, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) of the House of Representatives Government (HoR) based in eastern Libya have advanced his power by capturing the Al Jufra region of south central Libya.

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Writing in the Libya Observer, freelance journalist Abdelkader Assad claims that the forces of Haftar's Operation Dignity are close to their dream of entering Tripoli after he gained ground in Al Jufra capturing the towns of Hun, Waddan, and the Al Jufra air base. Earlier he had taken theTimnahent air base without a fight as the Third Force and Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) abandoned it. After failing in a coup attempt, Haftar launched his Operation Dignity way back in May 2014:

In February 2014, Haftar appeared in a televised announcement to reveal that the General National Congress (GNC), which had recently unilaterally extended its mandate, had been dissolved. Haftar called for a caretaker government to oversee new elections. His announcement was soon dismissed with great skepticism by the then acting Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. Haftar's actions were condemned as a "coup attempt" and "ridiculous".[27][28]] Three months later on 16 May in Operation Dignity, Haftar began a combined air and ground assault against the pro-Islamic militias of Benghazi, as well as a sustained heavy weapons attack against the Libyan parliament.[2Operation Dignity is still ongoing and to a considerable extent is the source of the present conflict with the GNA.

Haftar''s advances have been helped by bombing by foreign aircraft probably Egyptian. The Egyptians bombed the eastern city of Derna held by Islamists who had driven the Islamic State out of the city using the excuse that camps in Derna had been used to train fighters who attacked Coptic Christians in Egypt. Haftar has several times threatened to drive his militia enemies from Tripoli. Assad thinks that Haftar will use his bases in Al Jufra to "takeoff to Tripoli and western Libya" It is more likely that Haftar will move to other places such as Bani Walid first as Assad himself mentions. He would then continue to Misrata before entering Tripoli. He may be waiting to see if there will be a political process which would go as he wants. So far there has been plenty of talk and meetings but no announcement of when and where there will be a dialogue to amend the present Libya Political Agreement (LPA) or if and when the HoR will meet to vote confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). The HoR last rejected the GNA on August 22nd 2016 and there has been little evident progress towards a solution since then, in spite of a highly hyped meeting in early May between the head of the GNA presidential council (PC) Fiez Serraj and the eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. There were all sorts of rumored agreements but not a single actual agreement was signed. So-called agreements were mostly propaganda and bargaining positions of Haftar.

Leaders of the Misrata city military council, Battalion No.40 of the Bunayn Marsous Operations Room(BAM), have ordered the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) to surrender their weapons and their leader Mustafa al-Sharksi. If they refuse the Misratans said they would use force. BAM supervised the offensive which took the city of Sirte from the Islamic State(IS) The militant anti-Haftar BDB fighters are at the Baghla junction on the road south of Misrata to Abu Grain. This development further weakens the anti-Haftar forces. Haftar would no doubt be quite happy to see Misratan forces battling with the BDB instead of his own forces doing so.

In the east, the Ajdabiya anti-terrorism authority of the LNA said that it had seized a BDB camp near Sukna taking a number of the group prisoners, and seizing 12 tanks, several armoured vehicles and a stash of ammunition. In preparation for political negotiations, the GNA has an odd strategy. It is making itself weaker and helping Haftar grow stronger. Is there some group within the PC trying to throw those opposed to Haftar under the bus?

Eastern commander Haftar may be planning to attack Tripoli

(May 29(Khalifa Haftar who heads forces of the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) government the Libyan National Army (LNA) has called on militia loyal to him in the west to prepare to move on Tripoli and free it from Islamist militias who oppose him.

Haftar is opposed to the rival UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. Recent clashes in Tripoli have seen militias opposed to the GNA and loyal to the earlier Salvation Government have seen them retreat from Tripoli at least for now ostensibly becausethey wanted to avoid conflict. A more plausible explanation is that they were being defeated. The Libyan Express claims:

"Haftar said he and his forces in cooperation with his loyalists in the western region are going to defend Tripoli against the current chaos and killings created by what he said “Islam Political Parties” backed by many foreign countries including Qatar. “I call for the state of emergency and mobilisation of all troops to engage in a conflict that will end the presence of the militias that are endangering the lives of Libyans"”He urged coordination with the Presidential Council (PC) of the GNA.

The Libya Observer also reports on Haftar's sudden seeming support for the GNA. He called Tripoli armed brigades that he had formerly called his foes as "patriots" as they defended the PC and GNA. Haftar has always rejected the GNA. He applauds the mission of the militia to protect Tripoli from "political Islam groups" his foes. In a letter to his loyal brigades mostly from Zintan and Wirshiffana to "help the national forces which are securing the capital". Odd that he calls them national forces as if he recognized the GNA. Haftar's moves are quite transparent. He is wooing Tripoli militia in order to have them on his side as his forces and allies enter Tripoli. While the Observer claims that all Tripoli brigades have come out against Haftar and rejected his Operation Dignity the situation may be changing. The Islamists that left Tripoli were the most opposed to Haftar.

Egyptian fighter jets continued strikes on the city of Derna for the second time in three days apparently hitting civilians locations in a residential area. The engineers residential compound of the electricity company were hit as the Derna steam power plant and the distillation station. There was considerable material damage but apparently no one was killed. Derna had been attacked two days earlier by Egyptian planes. Egypt claimed that it attacked six sites where terrorists who launched the attack on a bus killing 28 Coptic Christians in Egypt had been trained. As I argue in a recent article in the Digital Journal it is quite unlikely that the perpetrators trained in Derna. The Islamic State has now claimed responsibility and they were driven out Derna ages ago. More likely Egypt simply made up its narrative to help out Haftar who is laying siege to the city. The recent attacks on two further sites in Libya in Hun and Al Jufra held by forces associated with the GNA further support the view that Egypt is simply helping Haftar who air force is limited.

Haftar may not yet try to occupy Tripoli. It remains to be seen whether his western allies are even willing to answer his call. However, it does look more and more as if there is going to be a military solution to the country's division, in which Haftar is able to convince some who now support the GNA and oppose him to decide to cooperate with him in a move that would see any anti-Haftar Islamists and others within the GNA who oppose him to be sidelined, if not eliminated. The GNA already appears to be yielding ground to Haftar. Just recently its forces abandoned Timnahent air base in the south headquarters of the Third Force and allowed Haftar forces to take it over without a fight. The GNA is growing weaker and weaker and seems to be helping Haftar. Something strange is going on.

Commander of eastern-based Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar threatens to attack Tripoli

(May 18)The international community applauded the move by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar to join the political process after he met with the head of the Presidential Council (PC), Faiez Serraj, of the UN-back Government of National Accord in Abu Dhabi recently.

In spite of the fact that an agreement was said to be reached, and was to be confirmed in talks last week, no agreement has been reached. Doubts were raised about the agreement. Some of Haftar's remarks to a crowd celebrating the third anniversary of Operation Dignity show that Haftar is determined to carry on with that military activity designed to rid Libya of Islamists whom he considers terrorists. Haftar includes among such groups militias supporting the GNA. To a considerable extent Haftar's Operation Dignity represented the start of a continuing conflict between many militia groups that continues to this day. Haftar's Operation Dignity or Karama started in May of 2014 by attacks upon rival Islamist militia groups in Benghazi. It also included attacking and burning the parliament buildings in Tripoli.

At the third anniversary celebration Haftar threatened to drive the forces some of which protect the GNA out of Tripoli: “We will not leave Tripoli, our capital, a safe haven for terrorists; our people will only be at rest when the capital returns to the homeland." This is entirely inconsistent with the pursuit of a political settlement based upon an amended Libyan Political Agreemetn( LPA). In fact it represents a military solution that supporters of the GNA and the UN envoy claim is impossible. They claim that everyone agrees that a solution must be based upon the LPA.

Haftar also criticized the international community for not lifting the ban on arms sales to his Libyan National Army even though the House of Representatives government (HoR) that appointed him is not the recognized government of Libya by the UN but rather the rival GNA. He also describes the LPA a conspiracy: “The army will not sell the blood of our martyrs, we will not submit to the international conspiracy, we will not be part of it.” Yet he is said to be negotiating an agreement on the basis of this conspiracy.

The above account is based on reports from the Libya Observer that is anti-Haftar and still refers to him as a "renegade general" but the Libya Herald, which is not in general anti-Haftar, also reports on the anniversary speech by Haftar. The report speaks of Haftar claiming that he would not leave Tripoli to the "rogue criminals and abusers" running rampant in the city a description that fits in with the Observer claim he threatened to drive them out and return the city to the "homeland". The Herald describes the celebration as a well-organized impressive display of parades, heavily armed vehicles and an air show. It involved 12,000 members of the LNA. Although PM of the HoR was present early in the celebration he was not present at the main event where Haftar made his speech. The UN special envoy Martin Kobler was not there nor were any foreign officials.

It should be clear that Haftar was more or less forced into his political activity and meetings with Faiez Serraj head of the Presidential Council of the rival GNA. He is using it as a means to build up his support. He no doubt knows that Serraj will never be able to convince most members of the PC and State High Council that he should remain head of the LIbyan Armed Forces or a member of the PC as his side has demanded. The failure of negotiations he hopes will gain support for his own solution and "fight against terrorism". A key part of the agreement with Serraj is a ceasefire but there are still clashes in the south between troops loyal to the rival governments.

Libyan strong man Haftar combines force and now politics

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar commander in chief of the Libyan National Army associated with the House of Representatives(HoR) government appears to have given in to pressure to join in a political process to form a unified government.

The HoR government based in Tobruk is a rival to the UN-backed Government of National Accord ( GNA). Serraj Faiez is the head of the nine member Presidential Council(PC) of the GNA. According to the terms of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed in Skhirat Morocco in 2015, the HoR must vote confidence in the GNA before its term starts as well as amend the Constitutional Declaration of 2011 to include the GNA. The HoR has twice voted a lack of confidence in the GNA, most recently on August 22nd, 2016.

On the second of May, Serraj held a meeting with Haftar in Abu Dhabi. There was no joint statement issued after the meeting and there was no deal signed. Nevertheless, many commentators were optimistic the meetings represented a breakthrough toward solving the political impasse of having two separate governments. I expressed skepticism about the meetings in two Digital Journal articles here and here.

Mattia Toaldo Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations has a long interesting article on recent developments following the meeting, in the Middle East Eye. Toaldo says of the meeting:Unsurprisingly, optimism soared among diplomats and policymakers when news came out of an Emirati-brokered meeting on 2 May held in Abu Dhabi between Fayez Serraj, head of the UN-backed and Tripoli-based Presidency Council, and Khalifa Haftar, the “field-marshall” who heads a rival administration in the country’s east.This is somewhat of an amazing description of Haftar. As a matter of fact it is Ageela Saleh who is head of the HoR administration not Haftar. Haftar was appointed commander in chief of the HoR armed forces as depicted in the appended photo. No doubt Haftar has control over the HoR and that is why you have the anomaly of one head of government not negotiating with another head but the commander of its armed forces. Toaldo notes that just hours after the meeting contents of a supposed deal that he claims included some of the following elements were posted on some pro-Haftar Arab media sites:A new, smaller Presidency Council of three (down from the current nine members) including Serraj, Haftar and his political arm, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Aghila Saleh. Haftar’s acceptance of civilian oversight by this body in exchange for him remaining as head of the army. A quick path towards new presidential and parliamentary elections to be held early in 2018.

Supposedly Serraj and Hafter agreed to finalize the deal last week with the blessing of Egyptian president el-Sisi. This did not happen. The elements of the deal quoted by Toaldo were simply the negotiating position of the Haftar side. Serraj`s statement issued some while after the conference mentions only an agreement to a ceasefire in the south and a peaceful transfer of power.

However, the Foreign Affairs Minister of the GNA, Mohammed Siyala, issued a statement in which he said that Khalifa Haftar was the commander in chief of the Libyan Armed Forces under the new government but that he accepted civilian oversight --apparently including himself as part of the new PC. There were protests with the ministry building being surrounded and demands made that he resign.

The key parts of the agreement as seen by the Haftar group which includes Haftar being kept as commander in chief and as part of the PC are non-starters. Most of the PC and the State High Council would absolutely reject any such government. Nevertheless Toaldo suggest:In most Western and regional capitals, there was talk of a “breakthrough” and of the need to accelerate the political process to include Haftar in the LPA and hold elections in a few months. A new emerging consensus focuses on accelerating the political process through a meeting of delegations from the House of Representative and the Tripoli-based High Council of State and a roadmap for parliamentary and presidential elections. The plan could then be endorsed by the UN at its highest levels.If the demands of Haftar being met are preconditions to an agreement then there is almost no chance of any actual agreement. However, if they are not met then the meetings will have been in vain.

Toaldo notes that Serraj really does not have the power to make a deal that Haftar would accept. Most Tripoli and Misrata militia have distanced themselves from the deal. As he notes there could be further tensions and even clashes between militia supporting Serraj and those opposed. Toalda notes that militia associated with the former Salvation Government may also gain power as they oppose Serraj. Haftar may actually have seen that his political actions would cause divisions among his opponents.

Toaldo notes that the meeting does appear to signal a change of strategy for Haftar since before the meeting he claimed that it was pointless to negotiate with Serraj since he sees his support as coming from militia and radicals his Operation Dignity intends to defeat. No doubt Haftar has been under considerable pressure from his backers in Egypt, the UAE and Russia to engage in political dialogue. Haftar could not afford to alienate his key backers. Toaldo describes his new strategy:Haftar’s new strategy is to abide by a reformed LPA with solid guarantees on his role as both military and civilian leader while pushing to have presidential elections early in 2018. The anti-Islamist former general would run in those elections as his moves to recruit campaigners throughout the country indicateToaldo thinks that he would win elections and then ask for help crushing his opponents and entering Tripoli.

However, Toaldo notes the numerous difficulties in carrying out this plan. Perhaps, it is not his plan at all. Haftar has always taken the view that their is a military solution the crisis. He may be going along with a plan pushed by his supporters and other in the international community which he knows will never be implemented because it will be rejected by his opponents inside and outside the GNA. When it fails because the other side will not negotiate an acceptable role for him in government he can ask the international community for military support to complete his Dignity Operation.

Toaldo himself notes:Ultimately, Haftar’s plan is not to abandon war to enter politics, but rather to use politics to strengthen his hand in a military battle that he knows he can’t win under current circumstances. For him, war is not the continuation of politics by other means, but rather the other way around: politics is a way to expand his support base and continue fighting.Toaldo warns that Europeans and Americans should think twice before supporting these negotiations that could lead to more war and help empower Haftar to take on well-armed militias in western Libya. Toaldo suggests that a better plan would be to concentrate on stabilizing the GNA government and making it more functional. This sounds sensible but seems unlikely to happen as most in the international community seem bound and determined to continue trying to give Haftar a prominent role in any unity government. It should have been evident some time ago this is not possible because so many are opposed to it.

Haftar has cleverly through his political move taken advantage of this opposition to create conflict among his opponents. A recent article reports that on the 8th and 9th of May militias opposed to the GNA mobilized south of Tripoli and deployed forces in the area in preparation for what they call `Libya Honor`. The group is led by Salah Badi a prominent Misrata militia commander and prominent in the Libya Dawn operation of 2014. The stage is being set for clashes among Haftar;s opponents. Haftar can wait until they are sufficiently weakened by internal fighting to carry out his vow in this tweet:

Khalifa Haftar: We will not leave our capital #Tripoli to become a haven for terrorists. #Libya

Unity Government Foreign Affairs minister suggests rival commander Haftar should head armed forces of new government

(May 10) At a press conference in Algiers, Mohammed Siyala the foreign affairs minister of the UN-backed Government of National Accord issued a controversial statement about Marshal Khalifa Haftar commander of the armed forces of the rival eastern government.

Siyala said that Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army(LNA) as he calls the armed forces of the House of Representatives' government, would also be head of the army of a unified Libya if he recognized the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). Siyala said that Haftar was "the commander in chief of the Libyan Army" but later qualified that by adding that before becoming such he must recognize the GNA as the sole authority, not the government of the HoR. Siyala was an official in the Gadaffi government.

However, the present Libya Political Agreement (LPA), section 8, makes the Presidential Council(PC) of the GNA not Haftar commander in chief of the Libyan Army. Haftar has been a key figure in rejecting the authority of the GNA and has consolidated power in eastern LIbya. He not only controls the oil fields but has replaced many local authorities by military officials. The head of the PC, Faiez Serraj, and Haftar met in Dubai in the UAE last week. The meeting has been described by many as positive. However there was no joint statement made after the meetings and separate statements with different contents were issued by each side eventually. The statements are described in a recent Libya Observer article:Haftar's statement concentrated on the two parties' agreement on enabling the military institution in its war on terrorism, and making sure the ban on weapons purchase by what he called the Libyan army is lifted. Whereas, Al-Sirraj's statement hardly mentioned anything about lifting the arms ban or enabling the military institution, but rather it was centered on finding a comprehensive strategy to develop and build the Libyan army, reaffirming that it should be under the command of a civilian authority.Unlike Serraj's statement, Haftar's did not even mention the February 17th revolution that overthrew Gaddafi and focused mainly on enabling and supporting the military. The two did agree on alleviating the current economic situation, fighting terrorism, and the need to deescalate the military tensions in southern Libya. However, clashes went on between the two groups in the south even while the talks were on. There was no joint statement outlining a way forward to unify the two sides. There are to be further talks this week but it remains to be seen what if any final agreement is reached. Nothing had been signed.

Al Jazeera's Mahmoud Abdelwahed in Tripoli said that that the statement by the minister was met with a wave of criticism:"Many people are angry and are wondering how a general whose forces have committed atrocities in Benghazi, whose aircrafts have been raiding ports and airports all over Libya, can be called by the UN-backed GNA as the commander and chief of the Libyan army.There is a contradiction here because Haftar himself does not recognise the UN-backed government."Siyala did qualify his statement by indicating that Haftar must first recognize the authority of the GNA. However, many people in the west and many within the GNA are vehemently opposed to Haftar becoming commander in chief of the armed forces of a unified government. Some oppose him having any role in a unified government and some consider him a war criminal. Haftar has never been in favor of the GNA and he has allies in the HoR including the head Ageelah who have been instrumental in seeing to it that the HoR does not vote confidence in the GNA as required by the LPA. He launched Operation DIgnity in May of 2014 designed to fight against Islamist armed groups not just in Benghazi and Derna but also in the west where he includes many of the militia supporting the GNA as his enemies.

The Central Security Branch for North Tripoli known as the Nawasi Brigade reacted to Siyala's claims about Haftar with strong words:“We have followed with concern the remarks issued by the Minister-designate of Foreign Affairs Mohamed Sayala, in which he described Khalifa Haftar as a legitimate part of the solution, although he is not a part of the Libyan Political Agreement. Also disregarding Haftar’s attempts to undermine the security and stability of the capital Tripoli, the Libyan south and the massacres committed by his armed militias in the eastern region, which are blatant violations of human rights.”The group sent a letter to Sayala asking him to resign. It seems that the brigade is using the threat of force to enforce their demand for his resignation. According to a recent tweet: "Nawasy brigade entered ministry of foreign afairs." There are ongoing clashes in Tripoli involving other militia groups as well. Perhaps what is happening will be clearer in the morning.

Trump says only US role in Libya is to combat terrorism

In a joint news conference with Italian Prime Minister Paulo Gentiloni, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the only role he saw for the U.S. in Libya was to defeat any remaining Islamic State militants.

The statement is somewhat surprising. Some have thought that Trump would lean towards supporting eastern commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) government, a rival to the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. Russia has been supportive of Haftar although it has also kept open lines of communication with the GNA. Perhaps Trump does not want to be associated with Haftar since he is associated with Russia!

Trump said at the news conference: "I do not see a role in Libya. I think the United States has right now enough roles. We're in a role everywhere. So I do not see that. I do see a role in getting rid of ISIS, we're very effective in that regard ... I see that as a primary role and that's what we're going to do, whether it's in Iraq, or Libya or anywhere else,"

Trump did praise the Italian role in Libya. Italy has helped out the GNA with a field hospital and is providing boats to the GNA Coast Guard to help combat trafficking. Italy's Coast Guard has already donated two rescue boats to Libya and it will give ten boats to Libya as part of an agreement to help stem migrant from crossing the Mediterranean to Italy. Near the end of March a Libyan court suspended the Libya Italy deal but it still seems to be going ahead.

Trump urged Italy to adopt a policy that "seeks the eventual return of refugees to their home countries so the can help to rebuild their own nations." Gentiloni was perhaps hoping that Trump would offer some help sharing the burden of the refugee crisis which is putting a strain on Italian resources. However Trump said: "I do not see a role in Libya. We have enough roles. We have a role everywhere." Perhaps the policy is meant to offset criticism by those such as Bannon who note that Trump campaigned on a promise not to be involved in wars that were expensive and not in the U.S. interest. Gentiloni noted that Italy and the U.S. had a common commitment to fight terrorism. He also told Trump that Italy would boost defense spending from one percent of GDP to two percent. Trump has demanded that all NATO members should reach this threshold to pay their fair share of NATO costs. Gentiloni claimed that Italy would respect their commitments. Gentiloni is very critical of protectionist trade policies that Trump sometimes supports. He has withdrawn form the Trans-Pacific Partnership and is demanding changes in NAFTA in favor of the U.S. However, globalists such as Jared Kushner appear to be gaining power in the Trump administration and nationalists such as Steve Bannon are declining in power. However, Trump policy can change very quickly.

Italian officials played down suggestions that Trump had actually rebuffed attempts by Gentiloni to get the U.S. more involved in helping to bring political stability to Libya. Gentiloni had said the U.S. role was critical. A pro-government newspaper La Repubblica said that Libya divided the U.S. and Italy and that the alliance was in difficulty.. However, an official close to the PM said the meeting had gone well and that there was no snub at all. Italian officials noted that GNA head of the Presidential Counci Fayez al-Sarraj was slated to meet with eastern commander Khalifa Haftar for talks in Washington later this year. There was no confirmation yet from Washington of any such meeting.

Before meeting with Trump, Gentiloni had said: “Now is the moment for the U.S. and Italy to work together to stabilise the situation and broaden the support for the Tripoli government to other actors. The division of Libya is not a good idea. It would be dangerous for Egypt, dangerous for Tunisia and for the interests of Europe.” Gentiloni claimed the U.S. had a special responsibility for helping Libya out of its crisis because the 2011 military intervention had lacked a vision of the future and resulted in mayhem. Numerous countries have been attempting to unify the two main Libyan factions. A recent tweet notes: #Libya Civil war mediation: Algeria, Italy, Russia have each held series of meetings with key leaders from opposing Libyan factions. As yet there appears little sign that the two sides can unify. In fact forces from the two sides have recently clashed in southern Libya near Sebha.

Eastern commander Haftar finally meets with UN envoy Kobler

For almost a year, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) associated with the eastern-based government of the House of Representatives (HoR) has refused to meet with Martin Kobler UN envoy to Libya.

However, there was a surprise meeting between the two at Haftar's Rajma Headquarter just outside of Benghazi. Kobler sent a message that it had been a good meeting that had focused on the obstacles facing implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement and what would happen afterwards. The two men are said to have had a cordial meeting. It was in December of 2015 that the two last met.

Haftar has been increasingly critical of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya that Kobler heads. He turned down several earlier requests for meetings as described here as a waster of time and here.

Last September, Kobler told the UN Security Council that Kobler had to have a role in the new Libya. It is not clear whether the present Presidential Council(PC) of the Libyan Government of National Accord(GNA) would agree to this. Many, especially in the Hight State Council, want Haftar to have no role in the new government. The present Libya Political Agreement (LPA) section 8, assigns the role of commander of the armed forces to the PC temporarily. The HoR has always demanded the section be deleted. They want Haftar to be commander of the armed forces. This is a position the PC are never likely to accept. Haftar and the HoR government rejected Kobler's suggestion and said he was part of the problem and had to go. The present GNA was rejected last August 22. At the time, a new cabinet was to be presented within ten days. There is still no new lineup. A dialogue meeting was held in Tunis in January but the HoR representatives failed to participate and still have not appointed new members.

On March 7, the HoR met and voted to suspend any participation in the dialogue. On April 7th the group met again and set forth a number of conditions for taking part in the dialogue. The conditions included removing section 8 of the LPA and retaining Haftar as the commander of the Libyan armed forces. Neither conditions would be acceptable to the PC or High State Council I expect.

It is not clear why Haftar decided to meet Kobler now. Perhaps it was pressure from Kobler's new deputy Maria Ribeiro who met with HoR head Ageela Saleh and a number of HoR members. Kobler is due to be replaced but his first replacement a Palestinian was rejected by the US and the next suggestion by the US was rejected by Russia. Kobler has been staying on but as a sort of lame-duck envoy.

Haftar's press office on Facebook also mentioned the meeting saying to two "faced topics regarding Libya's future, difficulties and obstacles on the path of the political accord." There were no further details. The talks appear to have accomplished nothing. Haftar has continual to stress, counter to Kobler's position that there is only a political solution to the Libyan political crisis, that there is also a military solution. The head of the HoR government, Ageela Saleh, has said that there is only a military solution to the problem. There are already clashes between forces loyal to the GNA and those loyal to Haftar in southern Libya near the city of Sabha. There is no sign that the meeting resulted in any new initiatives to solve the political crisis. A recent tweet noted: Haftar: We are seeking to consolidate disciplined forces under a legitimate banner. #Libya. Who knows what that means. Perhaps he is looking to recruit more members for his Libyan National Army. Meanwhile Saleh suggests, according to a tweet, a new mission for a renewed dialogue: Aghilah Salah " We will go back to dialogue to remove #PC as it failed to deliver " There is no sign of any new dialogue meeting as yet.

Chair of Libyan National Oil Company complains of attempts to sell oill illegally

Chairman of the Tripoli-based Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) Mustafa Sanalla spoke out against a new attempt he claimed was being made to sell oil outside the monopoly of the NOC.

The NOC put out a statement saying it knows of illegal offers to sell oil at a large discount to official selling prices. The NOC said that if they succeeded Libya would be out hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. The statement gave no details as to who was offering the contract but warned shipping companies such contracts were illegal. The NOC statement cautioned about the contracts: “Entering into them may lead to serious legal consequences and financial losses. NOC does not accept responsibly or liability whatsoever for any loss or damage incurred as the result of entering into contracts with unauthorised individuals.”

The NOC claims that it has contracts with 16 international companies covering the sale of all Libyan oil to be produced this year. The NOC said that only those 16 companies are contracted to buy Liyban oil and charter shipping tankers from Libyan ports for 2017. The companies are: ENI, Total, OMV, Repsol, Rosneft, LukOil, Cepsa, Saras, API, Glencore, Socar, Unipec, Vitol, Gunvor, Petraco, and BB Energy. NOC said that all crude oil exports were paid for by documentary letters of credit and at the official selling price with no discounts.

This would not be the first time that there were attempts to sell oil outside the monopoly of the NOC. In March of 2014 Ibrahim Jadhran's forces in the east tried to ship oil from Es Sidra using the North Korean flagged ship Morning Glory. The ship was eventually seized by US marines and returned to the Tripoli-based government. In April of 2016, the parallel eastern branch of the NOC tried to sell 650,000 barrels to a UAE buyer. The Indian tanker Distya Ameya loaded the oil at Tobruk but was refused entry into Malta. The UN meanwhile sanctioned the ship and it was unable to unload anywhere. It eventually sailed to Zawia in western Libya and unloaded its cargo.

After eastern commander Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, captured the four ports of the Libyan Oil Crescent last September, he turned over control of the terminals to the NOC and allowed exports. No doubt he decided that it was better for him to cooperate with the NOC in Tripoli rather than attempt to export through the rival eastern NOC even though he does not recognize the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). Two of the ports were briefly retaken by the Benghazi Defense Brigades but were recaptured by Haftar later. The House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk had urged Haftar to turn over the two ports as soon as he had procured them but did not say to whom. Haftar's Libyan National Army(LNA) had allowed continued oil export from the four ports even though the NOC unification has been stalled. A recent article suggests: "The parliament statement, coupled with the withdrawal of the NOC Benghazi head from the unification deal, appeared to signal that eastern-based factions may try to leverage their military control over the ports and other oil facilities." However a tanker is already loading oil at El Sidra port one of the two recaptured ports so it appears that for now Haftar is continuing with the previous arrangement.

In another development the Presidential Council has taken over most of the powers of the Oil Ministry. The PC will sign off on all projects to boost production, and approve all exploration-production agreements. It will control pricing of oil, gas, and derivatives and oversee the security and protection of all oil resources. It will also control any private investment in the oil sector and approve the National Oil Co. (NOC) budget.

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US general claims that Russia is forming bond with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar

Marine General Thomas Waldhauser, the head of US forces in Africa claimed that there was an undeniable link between Russia and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army associated with the House of Representatives government.

Waldauser said this underscored US concerns about the increased Russian role in Libya. In earlier testimony to the Senate foreign relations committee Waldhauser maintained : “Russia is trying to exert influence on the ultimate decision of who and what entity becomes in charge of the government inside Libya.”

Earlier in March, Reuters reported that Russia has deployed special forces to Sidi Barrani an air base in western Egypt about 60 miles or 100 kilometers from the Libyan border. Russia denied that report. However, when Waldhauser was asked about Russian troops in the area he claimed that there were Russians on the ground in the area and complained that Russia's attempts to influence Libya were concerning. Apparently the US is not concerned about its own presence in Libya which it is set to continue indefinitely as noted in a recent Digital Journal article. Several other countries such as France and the UK have or had special operations forces in Libya and Haftar has been aided by Egypt and the UAE in his campaign against Islamists in Libya, Operation Dignity.

Waldhauser said of the Russians: "They are on the ground, they are trying to influence the action, we watch what they do with great concern and you know in addition to the military side of this, we've seen some recent activity in business ventures...I think it is common knowledge, certainly in the open press, the Russians and their desire to influence the activities inside in Libya... the Russian and Haftar, I think that linkage is undeniable at this point in time."

The Libya Observer also reported that Waldhauser claimed there was an undeniable link between Russia and Field Marshal Haftar and also that there were Russians on the ground in the area, a devlopment that was of concern to the US. A tweet suggests that in response, the US was sending more troops to the city of Misrata: "#US to deploy more troops in #Misrata Air Force base after indications of #Russian presence in Eastern #Libya #Benghazi #Hafter". Russia has, without doubt, supported Haftar. Haftar has been to Moscow several times and met officials on a Russian aircraft carrier off Libya. However, Russia has also kept lines of communication open with the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli. The EU has expressed a desire for Russia to broker a deal between the GNA and Haftar to form a unity government. The US attitude to Russia, as expressed at least by the military, is at odds with the common view that Trump and the new US administration are favorable towards Putin and Russia. Given that Haftar boasts himself as a staunch opponent of Islamic terrorism, one might think that Trump might actually swing US policy towards the support of Haftar. Some in the UK urge UK support for Haftar. So far, the US position on Libya appears to be continued support for the UN-brokered Government of National Accord and concern about increasing Russian involvement in Libya. The US has said little of the long-standing and continuing evident support of Haftar by Egypt and the UAE among others.