Cairo meeting fails to come up with solution to Libya crisis

Egyptian government attempts to mediate a peace deal between Presidency Council (PC) leader of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) Faiez Serraj and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) failed.

(February 15) The LNA is the armed forces associated with the rival government to the GNA the Al-Thinni House of Representatives (HoR) government. Haftar refused to meet with Serraj and Serraj flew back to Tripoli from Cairo. Mohamed Samir spokesperson for the Egyptian Army said that the two did agree that there should be parliamentary elections and a presidential election in February of 2018. However, the Libya Herald claims it was told by a source that although Serraj agreed to the proposal, Haftar did not. Ageela Saleh, said only that he would study the idea. Apparently the Egyptian spokesperson was manufacturing fake news!

Serraj and Haftar were supposed to join in a meeting Tuesday that would have been chaired by Egyptian president Abdel el-Sisi. Serraj waited patiently all day in his hotel while Egyptian intelligence officials pressured Haftar to accept a compromise. Obviously they did not succeed. Haftar refused to accept Serraj's plan for a three-man PC rather than the present nine. He also rejected the proposal to have the position of commander-in-chief to be held jointly by the head of the PC, the HoR, and the State Council plus a supreme military council that would include Haftar. Haftar wants to remain head of the armed forces of any new GNA.

Both sides agreed to set up a committee of 15 members each from the HoR and the State Council of the GNA to consider changes to the Libya Political Agreement(LPA). There is no mention of a meeting for the HoR to vote confidence in the GNA as is required by the LPA. Some time ago the UN envoy Martin Kobler insisted that the LPA can be amended only after the HoR accepts it as it is and votes confidence in the GNA. The Herald suggests that the failure could strain relations between Haftar and Egyptian authorities. I doubt that there will be any significant changes in Egypt's support for Haftar as Egypt sees it as in its interest to continue support for him. He also has Russia and the UAE behind him. Haftar has been consistent in his demands and his attitude towards the peace process. He thinks there is a military solution and has been constantly trying to strengthen his power as the GNA appears to weaken and even faces an attempted coup by the PM of the former Salvation Government that so far the GNA has failed to put down.

In an interview with Arabic newspaper, Serraj explained that there was no meeting between himself and Haftar in Cairo because Haftar insisted that Ageela Saleh take part in the talks, but Saleh had refused to meet Serraj. Saleh said: "The intransigence of each party has resulted in the stagnation of a political solution and has increased the suffering of the Libyan people." Saleh is already sanctioned by the US and EU for allegedly blocking a settlement of the Libyan crisis. In my opinion, Saleh simply follows whatever Haftar wants. Nevertheless, Serraj thought that dialogue would eventually find a way out and that he would announce a new way forward in the next few days. At the same time, Serraj said he doubted that any government formed in the present circumstances could gain HoR approval or public confidence. Given this assessment, it is hard to see how there can be any successful way forward.

Haftar and Saleh remain in Cairo in talks with Egyptian authorities. The former ambassador to the UAE and several boycotting members of the HoR have also been involved in talks. Tarek al-Jaroushi a member of the HoR who attended the talks said: "Seraj must return to the legitimacy of (the eastern) parliament if he really is looking for a Government of National Accord that secures the rights of all Libyans." The GNA does recognize the legitimacy of the HoR but it becomes the legislature of the GNA only once it approves the GNA.

The HoR last rejected the GNA on August 22 last year. Almost six months later there seems little progress in having the HoR and its armed forces join with the GNA. It remains to be seen if US president Trump will involve the US in this crisis.

Meetings in Cairo to discuss plans for a new unity government

Faiez Serraj, who is the Prime Minister of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) is meeting in Cairo with Ageelah Saleh, president of the rival House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk.

Reportedly, the two are attempting to come up with a government lineup that is acceptable to GNA and HoR. Saleh, who is sanctioned by the EU and US for obstructing the vote of confidence in the LPA, wants a down-sized government acceptable to each side. The HoR had earlier rejected a government with 30 ministers. On August 22 they rejected a government of 17 ministers and asked that the GNA return with a government with only 8 ministers. The deadline given for the presentation has long passed. No one even bothers to mention this anymore.

According to Ramzi Ramieh, a Libyan military analyst, the talks are centered on building a tightly knit government of under a dozen people. Ramieh said that Saleh and Serraj were trying to form a government with a three-member defense council, including Haftar, and a three-member presidential council (PC), "along with representatives of Serraj and PM of the HoR Al-Thinni". It is not clear how this can be reconciled with the present LPA which makes no mention of a defense council as I recall and which assigns the function of commander in chief to the PC. No mention as to whether Haftar has agreed to this. There are conflicting reports about what is happening. Certainly many in the present PC, GNA, and State Council will refuse to serve in a government that gives a prominent role to Haftar. While Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary-General is busy trying to devise schemes to accommodate Hafter within the GNA and form a unified GNA, Haftar is busy strengthening his power by seizing four oil ports and making GNA look weaker and less effective day by day. Kobler who said that Haftar's seizure of the ports would make exports more difficult is now praising the renewed exports of oil. In contrast to the statement of six nations including the U.S. and U.K. who condemned the seizure and demanded that the forces withdraw, Egyptian Foreign Minister Choukri said: “Egypt supports the legitimacy and actions of the Libyan army to maintain security in the country.” Another source confirms Shoukry's statement: "Egypt fully supports the Libyan army's moves to maintain security and stability of Libya and to secure its oil wealth,"

The Libya Herald reports that little information has been revealed about the talks between Serraj and Saleh. One obvious topic is the size and composition of the new cabinet that the HoR long ago requested be presented for a vote of confidence. However, the Herald notes that Egyptian media are suggesting that they are also talking of an Armed Forces Supreme Council. This must be the three member defense council as mentioned in the previous report, which was from the VOA.

The Herald version has five members: Serraj, Ahmed Maetig, Saleh, Khalifa Haftar, Ali Gatrani. The Herald points out that there is no such body mentioned in the LPA and that it is inconsistent with article 8 that make the PC, commander in chief. In a tweet with an accompanying photo Kobler says: "Open and frank exchange of views w/ HoR president #Agila & PC Member #Qatrani on the way forward in framework of LPA." Kobler has insisted that Haftar play a role in the GNA government even though many in the government reject his playing any role. Meanwhile, Haftar continues consolidating his power and gaining support. He may even decide to carry onOperation Dignity right within Tripoli the seat of the GNA government by invading the city using militia allies in the area. Ironic, that Saleh, sanctioned by both EU and U.S. is a key negotiator in these meetings.

Rare students protest held in Tahrir Square Cairo, Egypt

Hundreds of Egyptian high school students staged a rare protest in Tahrir Square on June 27 but security forces moved in quickly to disperse them with tear gas, detaining several of them.

The student protest was over the cancellation of high school exams after someone leaked answers to some of the tests. The students allege that there is corruption and mismanagement in the Education Ministry. Some parents protested along with the students. The protest began at the Ministry with the students demanding that Education Minister Al-Hetali el-Sherbini resign. They later marched to Tahrir Square the site of the mass protests against Hosni Mubarak that led to his resignation in 2011.

Egypt outlawed unauthorized protests after former president Morsi was ousted in 2013. Security forces have kept a heavy presence in and around the area ever since, as President Abdel Sisi is determined to keep a lid on opposition. Mohammed Sadiq a graduating student planning to be an architect said the students were holding a peaceful march in Tahrir when the police began beating them. Some students were angered that some of them were detained. Sadiq said: "We came to protest about the exams — our final year is very important, But they attacked when we came to the square. The whole system needs to be changed, we deserve a better education than this one."

There was broken glass at the main approach to Tahrir and the central roundabout was ringed with more than a dozen troop carriers filled with security forces some of whom were heavily armed. The students returned to a subway station near the ministry where they started. The situation was calm but police remained out in force.

Twelve officials from the Education Ministry had been detained after answers to final nationwide exams for Arabic, religion and some other subjects were posted on Facebook by an anonymous user who claimed he wanted to show the corruption and inefficiency in the Ministry. Egypt's education system suffers from overcrowded classrooms, and teachers who are poorly trained. Students who can afford it rely on private tutors. Sarah Mohammed, one of the students, claimed that every year the exams are leaked so there is nothing new this year but she hoped the minister would resign and the system be reformed. Another student Amr Adel complained: "This is unfair. The student who didn't study will get higher grades than us. We were studying hard for 12 months... Why all this unfairness?"

In another sign of the continued repression of dissent in Egypt, Mozn Hassan, director of a group called Nazra for Feminist Studies, was barred from flying to Beirut for a women's rights conference. Passport control officials told her she was banned from traveling. She is involved in a case in which authorities accuse non-governmental organizations of receiving foreign funds with the aim of "sowing chaos."

Liliane Daoud, a Lebanese journalist who had a popular TV program which she canceled was arrested and deported. There have been many journalists arrested and jailed. The director of her program Amer Tamam said: "This is a campaign against respectable media and free journalism ... all we were doing was presenting a respectable show ... so we don't know what we are being punished for." The show covered controversial topics that rarely appear on the mainly pro-government media.