In Liyba many kidnappings go unsolved and unpunished

Kidnappings in Tripoli occur quite regularly with the UN-backed Government of National Accord apparently powerless to stop them.

On Thursday an armed group abducted Sheik Nadir Al-Omrani who is a member of the Council of Researches and Islamic Studies at the Fatwa House. The gunmen in two cars intercepted Al-Omrani at dawn as he was on his way to a mosque to perform a morning prayer. No group has claimed reponsibility for the abduction. His family have no idea of his whereabouts. The Libya Fatwa House condemned the kidnapping and blamed authorities in Tripoli for it, presumably because they are not providing security for citizens. A spokesperson for the Council, Abdullah Al-Jaadi said that either the Islmamic State or the Dignity Operation of Marshal Haftar could benefit from the abduction.

Another recent kidnapping was of Omar Hajaji, the Deputy General Manager of the Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB). He was recently released but no details were made available until he had time to leave the country. He had been kidnapped by an armed gang in front of his house in the capital Tripoli. Hajaji was in charge of banking operations at the LFB. He was shot in the leg during the kidnapping and is receiving treatment abroad. The family claimed that they paid no ransom and that they still had no idea who carried out the kidnapping.

The Libya Herald reports that victims of kidnappings and their famiies have no legitimate state institutions to go to for help but must rely on their own efforts, contacting any of the numerous Tripoli-based militia, informal networks, or tribal connections to find out what happened. The Herald complains of the Government of National Accord: The PC/GNA seems to enjoy absolutely no authority and legitimacy within the capital, as it is totally unable to positively affect living conditions. Criminality, car-jackings and kidnappings have become the norm in Tripoli with anyone deemed to be wealthy or with a well-paying job liable to be kidnapped at any time.

However, kidnappings happen not just in the Tripoli area but in the east where the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government holds sway as well. In many cases these kidnappings are connected to groups loyal to Marshal Haftar the commander in chief of the HoR's armed forces, the Libyan National Army (LNA). Most recently a group loyal to Haftar attacked the house of HoR parliament member Amer Omran in the town of Ben Jawad, assaulted his mother, and abducted his brother. Omran backs the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) that Haftar opposes. Omran had not been in the house when the attack happened. Omran regards the kidnapping as a form of blackmail to prevent him from expressing his support for the GNA. On his Facebook account, Omran said: “I strongly condemn the attack on my family which was carried out by a party, supposedly belonging to the state, in full view of everyone."

Omran has received several threats from Haftar's Dignity Operation to change his allegiance. Omar also supports Ibrahim Jodran former leader, or leader of what is left of, the Petroleum Facilities Guard(PFG). Jodran is an opponent of Haftar. Haftar was able to seize four oil ports in the Oil Crescent from the PFG with almost no resistance. A counter attack by the PFG was repelled using air attacks and Haftar was able to retake even more territory that brought his forces within 50 kilometers of Sirte.

In many cases, kidnappings are carried out by gangs in order to gain funds through ransom rather than for any political motivation as in some of these examples. Kidnappings have also been carried out by the Islamic State and possibly even Al Qaeda in a recent case in Ghat.

Libyan Constitutional Drafting Committee moving to Oman

An official with Libyan Constitutional Drafting Assembly(CDA) has told the Libya Herald that most members will go to Oman next week to continue its sessions there.

The official did not say exactly how many will go. While there are only 56 members of the CDA rather than the 60 needed, decisions by the CDA require a two-thirds plus one majority. However, according to Mohamed Tumi, a Tripoli lawyer boycotting the committee, there are 11 boycotters in all. The boycotters are mostly from the west of Libya, Tripolitania, who feel that the east and the south, Cyrenaica and Fezzan get too many posts, given that two-thirds of the population reside in Tripolitania. The CDA has been demanding that posts be divided more or less equally in the three areas. The two Tebu and two Tuareg members from the two southern tribes have suspended participation because they feel their communities are being discriminated against. Some CDA members are trying to have the two-thirds majority based upon 56 rather than 60, which would mean 38 votes are needed to pass a resolution. Unverified reports claim four boycotters have returned, leaving only seven. Some members will refuse to go to Oman. While the CDA can meet anywhere it wants many do not understand why it cannot operate from a base in Libya such as Ghadames or Ghat.

Etimad Al-Messallati , a member of the CDA, refuses to move to Oman to participate in the drafting sessions. She claims she and other boycotting members still insist that the current draft of the constitution be removed because it is illegal:The CDA member said if the draft were not removed, no one would think of travelling to Oman to attend the CDA sessions, pointing out that she could not understand why they chose Oman in particular while Libya has many cities ready to fulfill this purpose, regarding this move as a foreign intervention in the CDA work.Formerly, 13 CDA members from the western regions of Libya boycotted the sessions to protest the outcome of the Work Committee and the decision-making mechanism.

Boycotting members complained there was an attitude within the CDA that stressed regionalism and some members insist there be three regions with three capitals. There were attempts to impose regional quotas. The group claim the CDA seemed to ignore the concept of a state based upon rights of citizenship wherever citizens live. The boycotters were particularly scathing in attacking the then-head of the CDA Ali Al-Tarhoouni. They accused him of obstructing the work of the committee. Boycotting member Daou Al-Mansouri claimed that Al-Tarhouni addressed international organizations without informing the members. He and others filed a lawsuit in the Al-Bayda Court of Appeal claiming Al-Tarhouni was not eligible for his post since he held dual Libyan American citizenship. The court later ruled against Al-Tarhouni so he has been disqualified.

There have been other protests against the CDA. A number of members of the judiciary held a demonstration in Tripoli against the CDA. The members from a number of judicial associations saying: “We suspend our communication with the Constitution Drafting Assembly after they violated the independency of the Libyan judiciary in the forthcoming constitution, not to mention that they also ignored all the recommendations in favor of the greater good of the country.” It is important that the CDA produce soon a draft constitution that can be voted on in a referendum. If passed it will pave the way for new elections so that Libya will again have one elected government.

Prominent member of GNA claims the GNA will soon move to Tripoli with or without confidence vote by HoR

An anonymous but prominent member of the Presidency Council of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA), claims the GNA will soon move to Tripoli whether or not the internationally recognized House of Representatives (HoR) votes on the issue.

According to a report in the Libya Herald, the source said the move will be "very soon." According to the terms of the Libya Political Agreement (LPA) agreed to in Skhirat, Morocco, on December 17, the GNA must receive a vote of approval in the HoR before its term begins.

The last two attempts to pass the vote in the HoR have failed. There are competing reports about the failure of the last meeting to vote. Some sources report there was no quorum, but the main "official" story now is that there was a quorum but no vote because of disruptions. The HoR is to be the legislature of the GNA. If it is not even able to vote on whether to approve the GNA how is it expected to function when it becomes the legislature of the GNA? A letter signed by 100 of the HoR members approving the GNA was released after the last HoR meeting. Kobler has asked that the HoR "formalize" the letter. It is not clear if there will be a vote Monday in the HoR or some other mechanism will be used to avoid voting altogether.

The situation is becoming more and more bizarre. According to a recent tweet by Chris Stephen: US says recognised parliament (Tobruk) has agreed unity govt. because of Feb 23 letter signed by 100 MPs.

This suggests an actual vote might not be necessary. If this is the strategy, it is just one more of numerous violations of the LPA. Others include ignoring article 8 of the additional provisions of the LPA and also naming a group of GNC members to the State Council without the approval of the GNC but selected by an expelled member of the GNC. The GNC does not even support the GNA. The additional section 8 gave the function of commander in chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA) to the presidency council back on December 17 when the LPA was signed. This would relieve the existing commander, Khalifa Haftar, of his job. This matter does not even come up in mainstream media any longer.

The anonymous member of the Presidency Council maintained that most of the Tripoli militias were now willing to accept the GNA. The remaining opponents would cease to obstruct the GNA once it was in Tripoli even though it is at present, vigorously denouncing the GNA.

An anonymous top-ranking civil servant in Tripoli supported this position. The Herald reports:The militias, the official stated, “want two things: money, and an amnesty,” adding that the Presidency Council had agreed to give them both.“The militias see that the Ghwell government has no money”, he said. But they also know the GNA will have it, he added, noting that the militias would “go where the money was”.This is a much more convincing narrative than that of Kobler who speaks of the signers of the LPA as brave and courageous Libyans who put the national interest above their own. Many of the militia who support the GNA are already bought and paid for. However, to fund these militias, the GNA will need to gain control of the Libyan National Bank and the National Oil Company with headquarters in Tripoli. The GNA might not be able to achieve this without the use of force.

A number of activists have warned what they call "defectors" from the GNC against holding any meetings in Tripoli. They are no doubt targeting members of the State Council who met recently in Tripoli. The State Council is part of the GNA and is not recognized by the GNC and were not appointed by them as was supposed to happen. There have also been actions taken by opponents. Kobler has complained repeatedly that the GNC refuses him landing rights in Tripoli. Even more ominous is a recent rocket attack on the Tripoli house of Abdurrahman Sewehli . While no one was injured, the home was damaged. Sewehli supports the GNA. The attackers were not identified. However, this is just a sample of what may occur if the GNA tries to move into Tripoli.

Ahmed Maetig, a member of the Presidency Council, who does not fear to be named, claimed that if the HoR does not approve the GNA and the LPA, then HoR itself will lose its legitimacy "because it extension in office is legitimised by the political process." In other words it is legitimate only if the HoR votes confidence in the GNA as required by the LPA. What Maetig ignores is that legitimacy does not depend upon legitimacy but upon power politics. The HoR had questionable legitimacy in the first place and the vote establishing it was declared unconstitutional by the Libyan Supreme Constituional Court. The turnout for the vote was between 14 to 18 percent. The mandate of the HoR ran out last October and was not legitimately extended. If the powerful players in the international community accept the 100 signatures supporting the GNA as the vote of confidence in the GNA, then the GNA is legitimate. It matters not that this is a fraud and illegitimate, nor that several said to have signed deny they signed the statement. International affairs are often not governed by law but by power. Might doesn't make right always. Sometimes it can't be bothered.

At present, it is not clear what will happen. There are sources who claim that the GNA might go to Benghazi. The Deputy Prime Minister-designate Fathi Majberi said if the GNA could not go to Tripoli it could work from Benghazi once it was totally liberated. Other HoR members have made similar claims. Perhaps many HoR members are wary of meeting in Tripoli because of security matters. However, they are not even able to hold successful meetings in Tobruk because they are disrupted. Perhaps they should move to Skhirat in Morocco or Tunis in Tunisia.

Kobler regrets missed deadline but one report claims he ordered the delay

As usual, the head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Martin Kobler, ignores the most relevant facts in his statements. Even what he says is in direct contradiction to other reports.

According to the Libya Herald, Kobler condemned the extra 48 hours that have been taken by Faiez Serraj the Prime Minister designate of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord to create that government.Kobler said: “I regret the decision of the Presidency Council to postpone the formation of the Government of National Accord. Libya can no longer wait”. The UK ambassador Peter Millett called the delay disappointing because the GNA was needed to deal with terrorism and rescue the economy. Translated, this means the GNA is needed to give permission for foreign intervention and in return will receive economic aid. It is also needed so that a western-approved government controls the National Oil Company, the Central Bank and the $57 billion in frozen Libyan assets. This will give the GNA a great deal of ammunition to buy off opposition. Reportedly, Kobler is talking with HoR president Ageela Salah pressing him to ensure that the HoR approves the LPA along with a vote of confidence in the GNA. For some time now we have been assured that a majority of the HoR favor the LPA and GNA and this includes Salah. Yet the HoR met four times with no quorum. What on earth could be wrong, SRSG Kobler? The deadline under the LPA for the GNA to be formed was yesterday. There is likely no legal basis for extending the time, and signers of the LPA could claim the agreement is now void and needs to be redone. Kobler says nothing of all this.

Anyone observing the spin put on events by Kobler and others can see what might be coming. The majority support in the HoR for the GNA has always been in principle, with at least one proviso being that Khalifa Haftar remain as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army(LPA). The LPA, at least according to the last text available in English, assigns the function of commander in chief of the LNA to the Presidency Council of the GNA, not Haftar. Haftar could later be appointed again as commander in chief,but if he is, the GNA will probably not be able to function, because of the divisions this would create. Those from the GNC and the militias associated with it would never agree to Haftar as leader of the LNA. Haftar's Operation Dignity. that for the most part started the civil war in May of 2014, is aimed at ridding Libya of Islamists and that includes those associated with the GNC, whom he calls terrorists. Kobler has insisted all along that no changes can be made to the LPA. It may be difficult to know if changes are made since the UN has not seen fit to post the text in English of the LPA as signed on December 17 at Skhirat. Given this is claimed to be such a historic document it is strange that it appears impossible to find it on line, in English at least. If anyone has a link please post it in comments. My version is from July. Those opposed to any changes made will certainly make public what has happened if it is changed.

The pro-GNC Libya Observer claims that the UN Support Mission in Libya(UNSMIL) is in limbo because of the fate of General Khalifa Haftar in the GNA. The Observer reports: Tobruk parliament hardliner Issa Al-Araibi said Saturday that Cyrenaica members in the government of concord were about to issue a statement announcing their membership suspension from the Presidency Council due to lack of guarantees for what he called "the Libyan army", Khalifa Haftar's de facto armed groups.In other words, many who are now in the government from the east or Cyrenaica, are there only because they believe they were promised that Haftar would remain as commander in chief, even though this clearly would violate the LPA.

Even more revealing, the Observer reports that on Jordan-based 218 TV channel Al Araibi claimed that it was Kobler himself who asked for a delay of 48 hours so that he could fulfill their demands: “Kobler called Ali Al-Gotrani (deputy prime minister) and begged him for a span of 48 hours promising to bring the needed support for the army from the United Nations, so we are here waiting for the approval of our demands.”

Al-Airibi said the group would not discuss any names for ministerial portfolios until their demands are guaranteed. Those demands he said include support for General Khalifa Haftar's army, the LNA, lifting the arms embargo on weapons sales to the army and keeping in place the army leadership. They also demand a funds commission for helping to rebuild Benghazi, and also distributing the political occupations between the three regions equally. I thought the last demand was agreed upon by all sides. Al-Araibi said that the presidency council had not responded yet to these demands.

The GNC meanwhile re-iterated their rejection of the Serraj GNA government. The Libya-Libya dialogue is still in process as described in this article. However, it is much weakened by the departure of the president of the HoR Ageelah Salah from the group.

Meanwhile, without noting the likely illegality of the GNA extension of the time for its formation Kobler tweets:Translated from Arabic by Bing

Urge the Presidential Council to abide by the new calendar proclaimed and ensure the formation of a Government of national reconciliation as soon as possibleTranslated this means he is urging himself to get to work to find a new fix for the disaster that is looming closer and closer.

Haftar allies reject Security Team of UN-brokered Government of National Accord

- Deputy Prime Minister of the UN-supported Libyan Government of National Accord(GNA), Ali Al-Gotrani, rejected the 18-member temporary security committee that might make it possible for the GNA to move to Tripoli.

Al Gotrani said in a complaint letter to Sirraj. the designated PM of the GNA:

 "We strongly reject the formation of the committee without concord or vote from the presidency council. We will never accept this committee which includes controversial figures who led armed militias."Al-Gotrani demanded that the committee contain only officers from the LNA or the police. This is surely unrealistic. The Tripoli area is controlled by Libya Dawn militias for the most part. They are the main armed forces of the General National Congress government, located in Tripoli. To send forces from the Libyan National Army and police would in effect send enemy forces into Tripoli and almost ensure violence.

The announcement contrasts with the recent statement from the GNA Presidency Council praising the role of the Libyan National Army in its attempts to eliminate terrorism from Benghazi and Libya in general. Haftar, the commander in chief of the Libyan National Army includes Libya Dawn, the main militia supporting the GNC as terrorists. In this case, the release of the statement was objected to by anti-Haftar members of the GNA who claimed the statement was issued without the approval of the Presidency Council.

The committee will be headed by Brigadier-General Abdurrahman Attawil and Major-General Hamed Abud and comprises army and police officials. General Paolo Serra has been busy trying to convince militias in Tripoli, Misrata, and Zintan to ensure security for the GNA. No doubt the militia are being offered incentives to provide security, such as positions in the Libyan National Armed forces after the GNA takes power. Attawil was serving as a support commander for the army head linked to the Tripoli-based GNC. The main forces linked with the GNC are Libya Dawn. This connection will cause Haftar backers to completely reject Attawil. However, his acceptance of a role with the GNA will also cause an uproar within the GNC. Kobler's predecessor Bernardino Leon exploited divisions within Misrata militia and was able to bring some on board to support the GNA some time ago.

The GNC government has ordered the Military Prosecutor to start an investigation into the decision of the GNA Presidency Council. The GNC claimed the decision would instigate civil violence and military disobedience. The Prosecutor was also ordered to question the 18 committee members. While most commentators are urging the UN on and indicating how important the GNA is with the IS state launching attacks on oil facilities and elsewhere Libya-Analaysis suggests that: The international community’s attempts to impose a Government of National Accord on a divided and unwilling Libyan populace appear likely to backfire creating more fragmentation and state collapse — the exact petridish in which ISIS prefers to breed. ISIS attacks on oil facilities at Sidra on 4 January 2016 and on a training facility at Zliten on 7 January showcased the groups commitment to targeting key infrastructure and derailing the UN-mediated political process.The IS actions may not at all derail the UN political process. It may hasten the process. If the process is derailed it will probably be because of internal divisions within the GNA and the refusal of many in the rival governments to cooperate in setting it up.

The UN appears determined to push ahead with installing the GNA. This is another internationally sponsored regime-change program for Libya. This time around two rival governments are to be replaced by one. The hope originally was that this would be voluntary. When that did not work, the UN envoy Kobler gathered together a group in favor of the agreement and had them sign on to the new regime via the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA). It was immediately supported by the UN Security Council and dozens of foreign ministers in a meeting at Rome. Neither parliament approved the LPA and none of their members who signed on to it were authorized to do so.

The GNA is supposed to be appointed and its program decided by this Saturday and presented to the HoR for a vote of confidence. This could take place as early as Monday or Tuesday. However, the HoR has tried four times already to vote on the GNA but has been unable to achieve a quorum. The Libya Herald reports: A number of advisors to Serraj have told the Libya Herald that he and the council are determined to stick to the 16 January deadline. Others, however, have said that he intends to take at least 10 more days, possibly longer. If announced, the House of Representatives is supposed to meet and vote on the GNA by 26 January.If these "deadlines" are missed then the UN will be violating the LPA conditions. The UN will not notice and just forge ahead with whatever it is planning. Do not be surprised if the LPA, which Kobler claims cannot be changed, ends up being altered. The UN refuses to put the LPA, as signed December 17 in Skhirat, on its website so we may not even be able to determine what is changed.

HoR meets four times to vote on GNA but fails to attain a quorum every time

The internationally-recognized Libyan government, the House of Representatives (HoR) met again today to approve the Libya Political Agreement(LPA) and the associated Government of National Accord (GNA) but failed to achieve a quorum.

This is now four times that the HoR has met and failed to obtain a quorum. Apparently, they met yesterday as well and did not get a quorum. Of course no one bothered to report on it. Kobler least of all will do so. At least the Libya Herald has finally reported the failure.

The HoR majority members who are in support of the Skhirat agreement are expressing frustration at the failure to achieve a quorum.They are now considering holding an HoR meeting in an alternative neutral city such as Ghadames in order to enable HoR boycotting members to attend and complete a quorum in order to vote on Skhirat.This meeting would bypass the Ageela Salah dissenting minority and be led by HoR deputy president Shoab.

The Libya Herald just reported Salah has joined those supporting the LPA and GNA and in a recent article say this is confirmed by Martin Kobler:UN SGSR and UNSMIL head Martin Kobler confirmed yesterday that House of Representative (HoR) president Ageela Salah has indeed now had a change of stance and has come on board in support of the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and Government of National Accord (GNA) signed in Morocco’s Skhirat on 17th December and backed by UNSC Resolution 2259 on 23rd December 2015.If the head of the dissenting minority is now with the majority and Kobler reports others coming on board in the east, why cannot a quorum be obtained? Ghadames is in the far west border of Libya in the middle of the desert. Haftar would probably stop the members from flying there as he has twice stopped his own prime minister Al-Thinni from flying out of Libya. How are all the members going to get there when they cannot apparently get to Tobruk? Surely someone is making sure there is no quorum and no vote. It could be Haftar. Perhaps, the members think that they would be safe to vote as they wished in Ghadames.

There will likely be no vote until Haftar gets an iron-clad assurance that he will be head of the Libyan National Army (LNA) in the Government of National Accord. As the agreement is now, senior members of the GNA take on the function of commander in chief of the LNA. Haftar supporters at the GNA meeting recently in Tunis tried to ensure this but it failed. The next statement in the Herald is highly misleading if my interpretation of the agreement is correct:It must be recalled that according to the terms of the Skhirat agreement, the Serraj-led GNA will takeover all sovereign functions – irrespective of whether the HoR or GNC vote on it or not.Before the GNA comes into being and its term begins it must obtain a vote of confidence of the HoR. Only on this approval will the GNA take over all sovereign functions and its term begin. Article 1 section 4 of the LPA says:The term of the Government of National Accord shall be one year as of the date of granting it a vote of confidence by the House of Representatives.Of course the only copy of the LPA I can find online is from July 2. The UN has failed to post the text of the LPA as signed at Skhirat on December 17th. I have noted this numerous times but reporters apparently have no interest in seeing an up-to-date text of a historic agreement easily available online. The UN did post the text of the UN Security Council Resolution supporting the LPA. The Herald notes that as of January 26 sovereign positions such as the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya and Libyan National Commander in Chief will default to the GNA. Here is what the July 2 text says:Article (15)

1. The House of Representatives shall consult with the State Council in order to reach

consensus within thirty (30) days of the adoption of this agreement, to agree on the

following sovereign leading positions:

a. Governor of the Central Bank of Libya

b. Head of the Audit Bureau

c. Head of the Administrative Oversight Authority

d. Head of the Anti-corruption Authority

e. Head and members of the High National Electoral Commission

f. Head of the Supreme Court.

g. The Public Prosecutor.The Herald gives no links to check out what they say is the case in the text itself. Perhaps they could the general public a great service by publishing an English version of the Skhirat text if they have it. The existing text says nothing about the positions defaulting to the GNA. Maybe they do but let's see the proof in the document text.

UN envoy claims progress made in recent Libyan dialogue talks

The UN Special Envoy to LIbya, Bernardino Leon, claimed that two days of meetings in Geneva with all parties to the Libyan peace dialogue had made progress towards finalizing plans for a Government of National Accord.

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The GNC-government representatives had attended these meetings after boycotting an earlier meeting because they were not convinced that changes they wanted in the present draft of the Libyan Political Agreement would be addressed. However, after recent talks with Leon in Istanbul and reorganization of their negotiating committee after the resignation of the head of the group, the GNC returned to the talks. The Tobruk-based House of Representatives(HoR) government along with others had already initialled Leon's fifth draft agreement even though it was rejected by the GNC government who had not attended the meeting at which the agreement was initialled.

Leon said many points had been clarified in the meetings, particularly with the GNC delegation. Leon said the GNC group will still have to consult its colleagues on "a couple of issues." In spite of difficulties, Leon said the GNC remained involved and all parties were willing to consider discussions. He hoped the GNC delegation would join the talks next week. Leon appears to be recognizing that the entire GNC may reject what is happening in the dialogue talks as has happened in the past. The new negotiating team is seen to be more "hard line" by the pro-HoR government Libya Herald. Leon hopes to reach an agreement and have it signed by September 20.

Leon agreed to answer questions at his press conference. A first question related to the issue of names for the Prime Minister and the two Vice Prime Ministers. The HoR is to present names for the Prime Minister and one Vice Prime Minister. The GNC will present names for the other Vice Prime Minister. Leon said names had been presented by the HoR but not as yet by the GNC. He said he hoped to have the GNC names at the next meeting, probably Wednesday. Leon said there will still two Annexes to the agreement to be discussed, the first the list of the government members and the third the list of the State Council.

Another question had to do with the concerns of the GNC, who up to now have demanded amendments to the draft. Leon has so far refused this. Leon replied that some of the concerns could be addressed in the annexes and others in final provisions. It seems instead of amending the draft Leon is planning to add provisions which might have the same effect as an amendment. Leon said parties should be flexible on the overall package and noted that the specific concerns of all parties should be addressed. This is a much more conciliatory position on the concerns of the GNC than Leon has taken in the past — when he went ahead with dialogue talks without the GNC and appeared to be deliberately isolating the GNC while putting pressure on them to join the talks. However, Leon appears still be acting to undercut the GNC and planned to meet with senior military officers without obtaining permission either of the GNC govenment or General Staff. Leon had already done this earlier in an apparently successful attempt to split the Tripoli military forces when he met with leaders in Misrata, again without permission of the government or General Staff. The Libya Observer reports:GNC President Nuri Abu Sahmain has protested the intention of the UN envoy to Libya to hold meetings with Chief of Staff Officers and leaders of revolutionary fighters without prior permission from the dialogue team or the General Staff.

In a letter addressed to Bernardino Leon on Saturday, Abu Sahmain said Leon's attempt to meet the army officers without permission is a clear violation of local and international laws and conventions in force, and a breach to the legitimacy of GNC.Leon continues to report nothing about any parallel meeting with the military officials of the HoR government. The commander of the armed forces Khalifa Haftar refuses to talk to Tripoli forces whom he calls terrorists and claims he will never agree to a cease fire with them. Without a parallel military agreement any political agreement will be unenforceable as Leon himself has said several times, but at present ignores his own caveat.

The GNC has listed nine points that must be addressed before they will accept the agreement. They are all listed here.. Leon said some had already been agreed upon but others needed further discussion. One point requires dismissal of Khalifa Haftar, the present commander of the armed forces of the HoR government: "Seventh, there must be a clear dismissal of the military coup plotters, who clearly rebelled on the political process represented in the constitutional declaration." The final point is to require the final agreement be approved by the GNC government. Even the existing document would remove the role of commander in chief of the government armed forces from Haftar to high government officials. This is one reason Haftar rejects the document.

One questioner noted that the HoR delegation would not discuss the points proposed by the GNC. He asked if Leon had the agreement from the HoR to add the points to the annex. Leon said that he had been discussing the points with the HoR delegation and believed that it would be possible to accommodate the 9 points while keeping the support of the HoR and all the other representatives. He may discover this not to be the case when the HoR look at the nine points. Leon is often optimistic in the face of the odds that things will not work out.

Meanwhile, there are already clear divisions within the HoR government. Pro-Haftar demonstrators on Friday objected to the UN agreement and supported a government by a military tribunal after the HoR mandate runs out on October 20th. Haftar has long supported this and rejected the dialogue. Another member of the HoR said that the eastern part of Libya should declare independence. A showdown with Haftar appears inevitable in the near future.

Tripoli government to attend Geneva Libya peace talks but problems remain

The Libyan peace talks in Geneva designed to forge an agreement on a Government of National Accord and end the political and military conflict between two rival governments have been postponed one day until August 11.

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UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, appears to have changed direction at the very last moment. He seemed again convene a meeting without the attendance of representatives from the Tripoli-based General Nation Congress(GNC). Earlier in July, he had representatives from the internationally-recognized government and others initial an agreement without the participation of the GNC government who demanded that amendments they had presented be considered. The GNC left the dialogue after a round in which they were presented with an amended fourth draft of the agreement which removed the powers they had been given in that draft. They had neither been consulted on or given their approval to the amendments Leon apparently told the GNC the draft could not be amended because it had been initialed by the other participants. This is the understanding of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk as well. Leon has never clarified what his position is. No doubt he wanted to leave this unclear. He perhaps hoped the GNC group would attend even without a guarantee their amendments would be considered but he was wrong. The GNC wrote to him after a meeting yesterday demanding that they be given written assurances their amendments be considered or they would not attend. Leon gave in too late to convene a meeting today as was planned.

The pro-HoR government Libya Herald reports along with the pro-GNC Libya Observer that the GNC will now send delegates to Geneva. Leon in response to the letter from GNC president Abu Sahmain, that he welcomed the participation of the GNC in the Geneva meetings in order to find a mechanism to include its amendments in the draft. It is difficult to see how this could happen without the draft itself being amended. Deputy president of the GNC Saleh Al-Makhzoom confirmed that GNC representatives would go to Geneva and that Sahmain had replied to Leon's letter confirming the GNC's attendance at the talks.

The Libya Herald notes that while the GNC group is attending the talks and wants to continue the dialogue it rejects the draft as it is and demands changes. There was according to the Herald considerable conflict at the GNC meeting with at least one member wanting the GNC to accept the draft as it was. After this Sunday meeting president Sahmain sent the letter to Leon informing him that the GNC would attend only if its amendments were considered and included in the draft. According to the Herald, the HoR will accept no changes to the text of the draft. Just how an agreement can be reached when one party demands changes to the draft while the other party rejects any changes we will find out tomorrow or a day or so after. There may be no agreement at all. Even if there is an agreement it will be empty until there is a parallel military agreement between the military forces of Tripoli and those of the HoR government headed by Khalifa Haftar. Both he and the Tripoli forces of Libya Dawn that he calls terrorists reject the agreement. Leon has given up reporting on his parallel military dialogue!

Resumed Libyan peace dialogue in Geneva may be doomed from the outset

The United Nations intends to begin a new round of dialogue talks on Monday in Geneva. However, the talks may be doomed from the start unless the General National Congress government based in Tripoli agrees to send representatives.

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The UN announced last Thursday that the conference would be held this Monday but the location has not been known until now. While Bernardino Leon, the UN special envoy to Libya who has been arranging the discussions, talks of the "significant progress achieved to date," as I stated in a recent article, the progress can be summed up as follows:The progress includes a non-agreement that was rejected by one of the two rival governments, the General National Congress government based in Tripoli. While the internationally-recognized government based in Tobruk accepted the draft peace agreement, Kahlifa Haftar, commander of the armed forces, and the air force head have rejected it... Haftar refuses to talk with Tripoli's Libya Dawn militia and vows that he will not agree to a ceasefire with them. He considers them terrorists. The "significant process" so far is to isolate the GNC government by having other parties initial an agreement that Leon must have known the government could not sign.Leon has tried to divide the Tripoli supporters and has managed to get some municipal representatives from Misrata and even Tripoli municipalities to sign on to the draft. He also met with military commanders from Misrata without obtaining approval from the Tripoli government central command.

Leon hopes to go ahead and name a prime minister and two deputies who would then appoint a cabinet in consultation with dialogue participants. But if the GNC representatives do not attend this will ensure that there will be no political solution at all. In spite of this, foreign interests may want the formation of the Government of National Accord or unity government. This government will then be used as a vehicle to call for foreign intervention, which is already being prepared. Yet, even if by threats and enticements the forces behind all this manipulation manage to create a unity government, it is not clear that such a government would support foreign intervention. In any event neither the Tripoli forces nor the Tobruk forces of Khalifa Haftar agree to the Leon Plan as it is now called. As a recent article in the usually pro-Tobruk Libya Heraldsums it up: So far Leon has not seriously engaged either the HoR’s army commander General Khalifa Hafter, or Misratan Saleh Badhi, commander of the Samoud Front, the most hard-core of the Libya Dawn militia groupings. The presence of either man at the talks would trigger almost certain boycott from their enemies, yet no peace plan will be worth the paper it is written on without their agreement.For some time, I have been writing a whole series of critical articles on what is happening in the dialogue process. I wrote back in the beginning of July that Leon appeared to be deliberately taking actions that would isolate the GNC government by amendments to the fourth draft agreement that favoured the Tobruk House of Representatives(HoR) and deleted powers that the GNC had been given before the amendments. Then Leon went on to have participants initial an agreement in the absence of one main party to the conflict the GNC. I pointed out the absurdity of this. Now it seems other commentators are finally also taking note of the reality of what is happening while the mainstream press contents itself with reporting anodyne factoids devoid of most significant contextual content or any critical analysis. As well as the Libya Herald article just cited written by Hadi Fornaji, there is an even more critical article by Emadeddin Zahri Muntasser at the International Policy Digest appropriately titled "When an Agreement Isn't."

Muntasser sums up the contradictory nature of what is happening in his first sentence: In their determination to produce a Libyan peace agreement, western governments appear willing to sacrifice both peace and agreement to accomplish their goal.

He points out there is no agreement on a political settlement in spite of all the hoopla and praise from the UN, the U.S., the EU, and others. This should be obvious but few analysts appear the least bit fazed in the face of absurd claims as long they are advanced by those who count.Muntasser is the first analyst I have seen who describes the pressure put on delegates to sign onto the Leon plan:Elected members of the Parliament and of the GNC have been threatened with UN sanctions; the French Ambassador to Libya threatened the freezing of assets of the Libyan Central bank; the IMF Chief has done an about-face on the long-standing internationally accepted policy of recognizing an independent Libyan Central Bank, and so on. Such pressure to approve a UN plan, and the pressure from outside the country directed at elected representatives of the Libyan people, is hardly “by Libyans on behalf of the Libyan people.”Mantasser notes as well that Leon is intent on going ahead with formation of the Government of National Accord with or without the participation of the GNC, or of the military forces of Tripoli or the Tobruk government. How the pending disaster can be avoided is not clear.

We will find out tomorrow if representatives of the GNC will even show up at the Geneva meeting. The Libya Herald, a pro-Tobruk news outlet, says they will while the pro-GNC Libya Observer did not know whether they will or not. Translations from the Arabic of a friend on Facebookwhose father is involved in the negotiations suggests that they will not go unless they have written notification that amendments to the fifth draft will be considered. Leon's most recent statements have not clarified this issue. The GNC thinks that he will consider amendments but most others think he will not.

The Libya Observer has just issued an update on the situation. The GNC mandated its president Nuri Sahmain to contact Leon to make sure that the GNC amendments to the Leon plan be put on the table before GNC representatives will attend any future dialogue rounds. The GNC statement claims that both sides agreed in Algeria that the Libyan political agreement " will not be finally approved unless it is accepted and signed by the GNC." Sahmain has already sent the request to Leon and is awaiting a response from Leon tonight or tomorrow. The GNC is ready to send representatives to Geneva tomorrow if the response from Leon is positive.