UN Envoy has Tripoli press conference cut short and leaves quickly

Yesterday, Martin Kobler, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General in Libya, met in Tripoli with the president of the General National Congress(GNC) to discuss the Libya Political Accord.

The LPA was signed in Skhirat, Morocco on December 17 and is supported by the UN Security Council and a large group of foreign ministers who met later in Rome. The signers were members of the Libyan political dialogue, including members of both rival parliaments. The dialogue was meant to reach agreement on a political solution to the divided governments and formation of a unity government. No agreement was ever approved by either parliament. You have an agreement pushed by the UN with the support of the UN Security Council and many foreign governments. However, so far the UN has failed to create the security conditions to enforce the agreement.. The recent meeting between Kobler and Sahmain shows this.

Whatever the legal status of the GNC government, it has control over a wide area in western Libya including most of Tripoli and Mitiga airport. The UN resolution supporting the LPA demands parties in Libya give the UN and its workers free access to all areas and cooperate in setting up the GNA government. After negotiating an agreement of which the GNC was not a part, the UN now demands free access and cooperation in areas the GNC control without even asking permission. After first being denied landing rights at Mitiga, the UN at least had enough sense to arrange for them with the GNC. However, after his meeting with Sahmain, Kobler refused to have a joint press conference. Instead he arranged for a conference at the airport without permission and without Sahmain. The GNC had demanded changes to the LPA that Kobler refuses to consider. As a result, the GNC rejects the LPA.

As shown on the appended video, Kobler's conference was cut short when the GNC Foreign Media Department head Jamal Zubia said:“When you want to hold a press conference you have to take permission from the Foreign Media Department because we are responsible. By law, all the people (journalists/media) who are here, I must cancel their accreditation because this is the law."The Libya Herald reports Kobler apologized and asked that the reporters present not have their accreditation cancelled.

Many reports speak of Kobler being humiliated. None see any humiliation of GNC president Sahmain, in Kobler's refusal to hold a joint press conference with him after the meeting or Kobler's deliberate refusal to get permission for a press conference from his hosts.

It is not clear what is happening with respect to the other parliament, the HoR, which has so far failed to vote support for the LPA. The two recent UN press reports make no mention of the issue. In spite of claims by the UN and others that a majority support the LPA and the Government of National Accord, two recent meetings of the HoR have failed to reach a quorum even though the president of the HoR, Ageela Salah, now supports the LPA reportedly:Ageela Salah’s opposition and political position became weak once his support base, the tribes and council leaders of the eastern region announced, be it conditional, their support for the Skhirat agreement in a meeting with him on 26th December. This came after Hafter had already given his support to Skhirat at his meeting in Marj with Kobler at an earlier meeting on 16th December.I am not at all sure that Haftar supports the LPA. What has happened is that he is not speaking out against it. Almost all of the HoR support is with conditions, including that Haftar remain as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army. Throughout all this Haftar has remained quiet. Now there is a report in theLibya Observer that Haftar will remain as commander in chief of the LNA:Head of Defense Committee in Tobruk Parliament Ali Al-Tikbali, says Khalifa Haftar would be Defense Minister and General Commander of Libyan Army in Fayaz Sirraj governmentI would take this report with a grain of salt. Sirraj is the designated prime minister of the new GNA. The present LPA gives the function of commander in chief of the LNA to the Presidential Council of the GNA not Haftar. If Haftar remains as head of the LPA, many of the GNC members who agree to the LPA and GNA will be outraged. The GNC militias will not stand for this. This would entail a continuation of the civil war with the UN and international community supporting CIA-linked Haftar. What is happening may become clearer on Monday when the HoR may meet to approve the LPA and GNA.

UN SRSG Kobler to meet with president of the GNC

- UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) Martin Kobler, or the new head of the United Nations Support Mission In Libya, will reportedly meet with Abu Sahmain, the president of the General National Congress(GNC), on New Year's Day.

The Libya Herald says it saw a letter from Kobler to Sahmain indicating the SRSG and his security adviser, Major General Paolo Serra, would be visiting Tripoli Friday. Kobler already met with eastern authorities from the HoR government. There is no report on what happened at that meeting. Kobler has released no information about what is happening for over a week now. His last news release was about the UN Security Council resolution supporting UNSCR 2259 which included demands that the GNC and HoR authorities cooperate with the UN officials as they attempt to locate a rival government in Tripoli.

So much for recognizing the sovereignty of Libya. A foreign body is, in effect, again facilitating regime change in Libya. This time around the UN resolution will turf out two regimes, not just one as was the case with the UN no-fly zone supposedly meant to protect Libyans. This time it is not rebels being supported but those who see an opportunity for joining a new government that ,as with the old ones, will provide opportunities for well-paying jobs, but now also for gaining power and influence through relations with important international powers. The legislative body of the new Government of National Accord(GNA) is the same as the old HoR. All those who approve the GNA will automatically be part of the new GNA. There is also a State Council to be composed of former members of the GNC government. Both the GNC and the HoR may be left without quorums when the members who accept the GNA leave. The GNA will attempt to gain control of the Libyan Central Bank and National OIl company and this will cut off salaries to the old HoR and GNC governments.. Once the GNA's term begins when the HoR gives a vote of confidence to it, then only the GNA will be recognized by the international community, or at least that is the plan.

There are a number of interesting analyses of the present situation. One is in an Atlantic Council blog by Mohamed Eljarh, a nonresident fellow for the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. A second is in the Libya Herald by Sami Zapti. The new-year meeting will test whether the GNC and its main militia Libya Dawn will allow Kobler and General Serra to visit with him in Tripoli. According to the Herald, GNC authorities refused to let Kobler land at the Mitiga airport in Tripoli after he met with HoR authorities before the Skhirat signing of the LPA on December 17. However, now the UN Security Council Resolution demands cooperation with the UN authorities and the LPA is signed, Sahmain is unlikely to rile the waters by not allowing the visit.

For some reason, even Zapti, whose analysis is quite recent, does not comment on the fact that after two attempts to approve the LPA, the HoR has still not managed to do so. Even though 90 members of the HoR signed a statement approving the LPA and GNA — with important conditions attached — the HoR cannot achieve a quorum. Given that recently more members of the HoR have agreed to support the LPA, it is passing strange that only 25 members of the HoR should show up for a vote. The supposedly hard liner president of the HoR, Ageela Salah, even showed up at the last meeting. Given that the UN is anxious that the GNA be up and running — and that cannot happen until the HoR gives a vote of confidence in the GNA — it is more than strange that neither the Libya Herald, nor the pro-GNC Libya Observer have any analysis of why this is happening. Apparently, it is not only the UN that has topics that cannot be talked about.

The Eljarh article rightly points out that security issues are crucial to the success of the GNA. He notes in particular the present commander in chief of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, is a threat to the authority of the GNA and its Presidential Council:Another security-related challenge includes the issue of senior military posts. According to Article 8 of the agreement, the powers of all senior military posts revert to the Presidential Council as soon as the agreement is signed. Yet General Khalifa Haftar continues to direct ongoing military operations in eastern Libya, despite the signing of the agreement. This situation presents a clear challenge to the authority of the presidential council and the GNA.

I think Eljarh must be misreading the LPA. The term of the GNA does not begin until the HoR gives it a vote of confidence. In effect there is no GNA as yet. Haftar does not lose his job until the GNA is given a vote of confidence by the HoR. The Presidential Council does not yet have any authority over the LNA or Haftar. If it did, then the situation would be outrageous and the GNA already doomed by Haftar's successful flouting of the GNA authority. Of course this may still happen but it has not so far, in my opinion. If it had, surely the UN would complain about Haftar but they have not. However, Haftar may be arranging it so there is no vote in the HoR to ensure that for now he remains in power,

What puzzles me somewhat is that even if there is a vote in the HoR approving the LPA and GNA, it will only be in principle. The majority in the HoR want Haftar to remain as commander in chief of the LNA, so they will never approve a document that takes away his job. Unless Kobler agrees to eliminate section 8 and leave Haftar as commander in chief, there seems no hope that the LPA will ever pass the HoR. Kobler says that he cannot alter the LPA or the names presented. To eliminate section 8 would enrage members of the GNC and many others who support the GNA,.

In contrast to Eljarh, Zapti thinks Hafar is cooperating with the UN and following "their line":Equally, with Hafter towing the UN-brokered LPA line and the eastern tribes – the bedrock of Ageela Salah’s political support in the east – coming out in favour of Skhirat, Salah has been left marooned politically.

Presumably, Zapti was attempting to use idiomatic English and mistakenly used "towing" instead of "toeing" as they are homphones. Zapti suggests that the Libya-Libya alternative plan to that of the UN is petering out, even though a GNC group announced a new version of the plan. Salah, president of the HoR, along with Sahmain president of the GNC had earlier worked together to promote the plan. Now, Salah appears to have abandoned the plan and will support the GNA but with conditions.

Haftar has not spoken out against the UN plan or repeated his position that the GNC armed forces are terrorists with whom he cannot negotiate or agree to a ceasefire. While Haftar has been quiet, he has equally shown no indication that he is willing to step down as commander in chief of the Libyan Army. He may very well be behind the amazing scenario of an HoR, which the UN claims contain a majority who support the LPA and the GNA, yet t is incapable of mustering enough members to gain a quorum to take a vote in the HoR. The UN has not seen fit to comment on what is happening. This is to be expected, because it is a fact that is inconvenient and embarrassing but surely it should be of interest to other media. Perhaps, the problem is that the issue has nothing to do with Hillary Clinton.

Libyan diplomat's defence of UN envoy Leon actually shows Leon's bias

Ibrahim Dabbashi, the Libyan envoy to the UN, from the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government, came to the defense of Bernardino Leon the outgoing UN special envoy to Libya.

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His defense actually reveals that Leon was biased against the Tripoli-based General National Congress government(GNC). The Guardian article showed that Leon was offered a high-paying job in the UAE in June while he was in charge of UN attempts to reach a political agreement between the two rival Libyan governments. Dabbashi claims the Guardian leaks show that Leon was well versed in complications of the Libyan situation and resistant to the pressure put on him by powerful countries. As well, he was committed to UN rules. Leon may have been well versed in the complications of the Libyan situation but it is not clear that he resisted the pressure put on him by the UAE to try to discredit the General National Congress government in Tripoli. While Leon did consult with the UN with respect to his negotiations for a job paying more than $1,500 a day as the head of a diplomatic college in Abu Dhabi, the UN clearly did not apply its own rules governing conflicts of interest.

Dabbashi, in an article he published on his official Facebook page, accuses the M16 — the UK Intelligence Agency — of leaking the emails the Guardian published showing among other things that Leon intended to delegitimize the General National Congress and increase the power of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government. Dabbashi thinks that the purpose of the revelations were not to defame Leon but to send a message to his successor Martin Kobler to begin the dialogue process anew and carry out M15 plans. For the difference between M15 and M16 see this site..

Dabbashi believes the U.S., UK, and EU have a view of strategy in Libya that differs from that of the UN and the UN Security Council. The UN and UN Security Council regard the HoR as the only legitimate authority in Libya. However, the U.S., UK, and EU want to ensure the GNC had some power and representation in any unity government and the GNC armed forces are part of the process. Leon was trying to "disintegrate Libya Dawn and shatter the alliance between the Islamists in the GNC and Misrata...in addition to pushing the armed groups out of the cities and creating a national unity government of moderate figures from both parties."

Rather than defending Leon, Dabbashi's assertions, if true, confirm that not only was Leon partial to the HoR but he was actively attempting to foster division within the GNC government. He also was trying to "disintegrate" the Libya Dawn the main armed forces of the GNC. This would weaken the GNC and its bargaining power. There is ample evidence that Leon did pursue this policy.

As early as July, Leon had met with a number of commanders of militia in Misrata that he thought might support an agreement that the GNC and its main forces could reject. The speaker of the GNC parliament, Abu Sahmain, " found it strange that Leon had repeatedly met with revolutionaries of the General Staff without permission from the Commander-in-Chief or the GNC's dialogue team." This was part of Leon's plan to as Dabbashi put it to "disintegrate Libya Dawn." Some of the militia associated with Misrata and elsewhere had rocky relations with Tripoli and Leon could have enticed them to support him even when the GNC would not go along. Leon was eventually able to get numerous militia groups to sign a letter supporting a unity government. Leon held these meetings more than once. By early September as new meetings took place Sahmain not only complained to the UN but threatened legal action:GNC President Nuri Abu Sahmain has now threatened to take legal action against it because it had been in contact with military officers from the west of Libya without the permission of the GNC or the army. In a strongly-worded letter to UNSMIL chief Bernardino Leon made public yesterday, Abu Sahmain complained .. he had since heard that UNSMIL was making arrangements for a meeting with a number of “Revolutionaries’ Army leaders” from Tripoli, Misrata, Zintan, Gharyan and Zawya without giving notice to the supreme commander of the Libyan army – himself.These are clear moves meant to undercut the authority of the GNC and work with militia leaders independently of any chain of authority reaching back into the GNC government. These actions are clearly not neutral or impartial and involve advancing some of the actions that would be approved by the UAE.

The Middle East Eye has a long article detailing how Leon's strategies were being worked out in conjunction with authorities in the UAE. The article shows Leon was covertly working with the UAE to support the HoR side in the process while he was supposed to be an impartial mediator. One clear example of this is a letter sent to UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah al-Nahyan on December 31st last year: “All my movements and proposals have been consulted with (and in many cases designed by) the HOR and Aref Nayed and Mahmud Jibril (with whom I speak on a daily basis) following Your request,” Leon wrote, capitalising “your” to reflect Abdullah’s royal status in Abu Dhabi. Mahmud Jibril is a prominent Libyan politician who lives in the UAE and who previously served as Libya’s interim prime minister during the 2011 NATO-backed revolution that overthrew the late Muammar Gaddafi. Aref Nayed is the House of Representatives (HoR) ambassador to the UAE.The full text of the letter can be found here. The article claims Leon's plan as set out in the emails was to reconcile the head of the HoR armed forces with the Misrata militias and have the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated GNC "disappear." This hardly worked out. No doubt working with a large team Leon was unable in many instances to do what he hoped to do. As far as his final draft Libya Political Agreement(LPA) is concerned some of the Misrata militia that he managed to divide from the GNC support it while Haftar rejects it. Ironically as well, the Muslim Brotherhood as a party supports the draft although there are deep divisions within the party. Leon often points to the LPA itself as evidence of his lack of bias. It is more likely it shows his inability to push his own agenda to the degree he would have liked. He was not working alone but with dozens of others to create the draft agreement.

Tripoli government to attend Geneva Libya peace talks but problems remain

The Libyan peace talks in Geneva designed to forge an agreement on a Government of National Accord and end the political and military conflict between two rival governments have been postponed one day until August 11.

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UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, appears to have changed direction at the very last moment. He seemed again convene a meeting without the attendance of representatives from the Tripoli-based General Nation Congress(GNC). Earlier in July, he had representatives from the internationally-recognized government and others initial an agreement without the participation of the GNC government who demanded that amendments they had presented be considered. The GNC left the dialogue after a round in which they were presented with an amended fourth draft of the agreement which removed the powers they had been given in that draft. They had neither been consulted on or given their approval to the amendments Leon apparently told the GNC the draft could not be amended because it had been initialed by the other participants. This is the understanding of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk as well. Leon has never clarified what his position is. No doubt he wanted to leave this unclear. He perhaps hoped the GNC group would attend even without a guarantee their amendments would be considered but he was wrong. The GNC wrote to him after a meeting yesterday demanding that they be given written assurances their amendments be considered or they would not attend. Leon gave in too late to convene a meeting today as was planned.

The pro-HoR government Libya Herald reports along with the pro-GNC Libya Observer that the GNC will now send delegates to Geneva. Leon in response to the letter from GNC president Abu Sahmain, that he welcomed the participation of the GNC in the Geneva meetings in order to find a mechanism to include its amendments in the draft. It is difficult to see how this could happen without the draft itself being amended. Deputy president of the GNC Saleh Al-Makhzoom confirmed that GNC representatives would go to Geneva and that Sahmain had replied to Leon's letter confirming the GNC's attendance at the talks.

The Libya Herald notes that while the GNC group is attending the talks and wants to continue the dialogue it rejects the draft as it is and demands changes. There was according to the Herald considerable conflict at the GNC meeting with at least one member wanting the GNC to accept the draft as it was. After this Sunday meeting president Sahmain sent the letter to Leon informing him that the GNC would attend only if its amendments were considered and included in the draft. According to the Herald, the HoR will accept no changes to the text of the draft. Just how an agreement can be reached when one party demands changes to the draft while the other party rejects any changes we will find out tomorrow or a day or so after. There may be no agreement at all. Even if there is an agreement it will be empty until there is a parallel military agreement between the military forces of Tripoli and those of the HoR government headed by Khalifa Haftar. Both he and the Tripoli forces of Libya Dawn that he calls terrorists reject the agreement. Leon has given up reporting on his parallel military dialogue!