GNA appears to be winning over GNC for control of Tripoli

Members of the Presidential Council from the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) led by PM Faiez Serraj recently arrived in a naval base adjacent to Tripoli. While at first there were threats to arrest the group from the rival General National Congress (GNC) and there were a few clashes during the first day, things have quieted down and the GNC appears to be in no position to launch any significant opposition to the GNA. While the description of what happened described in a recent Digital Journal article may not be accurate, the GNC might as well have vanished. The GNA has been able to meet with a number of local officials and 10 cities in the west of Libya have come out in support of the UN-brokered government. . There have also been demonstrations in support of the GNA in Tripoli. The PC has also met with the chair of the Central Bank. The GNA wants to gain control of it and other institutions and block off funds to the GNC. The chair of the bank appears to be cooperating with the GNA.

In a statement on Thursday, PM of the GNC Khalifa Al-Ghawell said he was not interested in power and he will abide by any GNC decision on the GNA. However, there appears to be no official statement yet from the GNC. Al-Ghawell said: "My rejection to the so-called Presidency Council will be in a peaceful and legal manner without any use of force." He said rumors of his departure and handing over power to the GNA were baseless. However, there is not a word about arresting members of the GNA or taking any actions that would block the GNA from taking power. He is under sanction now by the EU. Perhaps they will be lifted for good behavior.

The president of the GNC, Nuri Sahmain, also made a statement. He described the arrival of the GNA in Tripoli as an "illegitimate coup" yet said he still supported the Libyan Political Dialogue. This is rather senseless since there has been no dialogue since Kobler took over and said that there would be no more amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement. Of course he then went ahead and amended it. Sahmain ignores the fact that the GNA is simply using its power to bribe, support of the big powers, and the UN security power to create its own legitimacy. Once it gains control of the Central Bank, the GNC will have no means of financing itself. Sahmain however still thinks the GNA needs more national agreement before it begins operation:He said that there remained “disputed issues” in the Skirhat Libyan Political Agreement which would have to be resolved before the Government of National Accord under Faiez Serraj would have any authority. He said that there needed to be more national agreement before the GNA could start to operate.Apparently the statement was on behalf of the GNC as well. It ended by calling for self-control by all sides and avoidance of bloodshed. No talk of arrests of the presidency council members from the GNA. Sahmain is also sanctioned by the EU.

Kobler, Faiez, and international supporters are busy cheering and posting photos of the GNA crew in Tripoli. However, there is no news of what is happening in Tobruk and in the HoR. There is complete silence from Khalifa Haftar. Will the HoR meet Monday to vote on the GNA and amend the constitutional declaration of 2011? What happened to the two sections 8 of the LPA which took away Haftar's job? Are they "frozen"?

Imhamed Shouaib, the deputy president of the HoR had some revealing comments after arguing that the LPA should not be re-opened or amended: ".. he stressed that at times measures must be taken that are not strictly democratic. This is forced upon us by the situation that Libya finds itself in, he explained. He explained that the national interest of the country had to be balanced politically with strict legalistic or democratic practices. "Surely the UN, the GNA, or the international community would not do anything illegal.

Propaganda and rumors abound as Tripoli situation is unclear

March 22 --The Libya Observer, which supports the Tripoli-based General National Congress, notes that the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) has so far failed to enter Tripoli as it claims it will do.

The Observer also claims that some activists are spreading rumors designed to influence public opinion and gain support for the GNA. A recent rumor was that the Grand Mufit Sheikh Sadiq Al-Gharyani is now a strong supporter of the Serraj GNA government and that he asked both the GNC and revolutionary fighters to allow it in to Tripoli. The Mufti has so far been strongly opposed to the GNA. The rumour quickly spread on Twitter:

 Libya Al Hurra ‏@LibyaAlHurraTV 33m33 minutes ago

Libya Al Hurra Retweeted francesco strazzari

#Libya: Widely panned Italian news report saying Gharyiani and Belhaj to clear the road for the GNA in #Tripoli.Belhaj is a prominent Islamist. At one time he was rendered to Gadaffi's Libya by the CIA. He is an opponent of the GNA. It is quite unlikely that the reports about him supporting the GNA are true but then groups do switch sides. The rumor was picked up and then published by an Italian news agency.

The Observer also notes that there were reports that a pro-GNA group had attacked the GNC and the head of the GNC Nuri Abu Sahmain, members and guards had fled. There was an actual skirmish outside the Jamhouria Bank that is in a district close to the GNC. The Libya Herald that is usually opposed to the GNC nevertheless confirmed the Observer account of what actually happened:The Abu Sleem unit of the Rada (“Deterrance” Forces) have claimed that today’s fighting in central Tripoli’s Bab Ben Ghashir district was the result of an attempt by a militia to take over the branch of the Jumhouriya Bank in the district. It says it has now secured the area.

The Observer also claims that clashes in Camp 77 on Saturday were deliberately misinterpreted:The propaganda machine of UN-imposed government was quick to claim that pro-Sirraj government armed groups were attacking pro-GNC Sumood Force in the camp. In fact, the clashes were between the 6th Force of the Central Security and an armed brigade affiliated with Al-Burki brigade over a wanted killer and had nothing to do with the ongoing political crisis in Libya.One wonders what the purpose would be in the rumor since it would show that the situation in Tripoli is not secure. It is more likely just someone thinking that it must have something to do with the GNA moving to Tripoli. It does nothing to make the public favor the move that I can see.

The Observer also remarks on the ongoing liquidity crisis that has resulted in limiting withdrawals from banks that are open. Many are closed. One of the reasons that the GNA is moving to Tripoli is that it is the headquarters of the Libyan Central Bank. The GNA hopes to gain control of the bank and starve rival governments of funds. It appears that Central Bank head may be cooperating with the GNA. The Observer quotes an anonymous source as claiming that the liquidity crisis is deliberate and is being carried out under instructions from the GNA:"CBL governor Sadiq Al-Kabri is a supporter of the government of national accord and he gave his instructions to limit cash delivery to the banks to provoke a liquidity crisis.This crisis was suddenly provoked when the government of national accord declared its intention to move to Tripoli, and the aim is to make people reject Tripoli government and GNC and demand quick access of GNA to Tripoli to solve this crisis, which actually would be solved quickly if GNA succeed to do so."

The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) had earlier agreed to open $2 billion in letters of credit to import basic goods and medicines and alleviate the shortage of cash. However, this apparently has not happened. The Central Bank governor Sabri is apparently a member of a party associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood supports the GNA although the membership is apparently divided on the issue. It appears that the GNA may be able to turn public opinion against the GNC. There have already been demonstrations against the cash shortage.

UN continues pressure on rival governments in Libya to accept UN plan

The new head of the UN support mission in LIbya, Martin Kobler, continues to push for the two rival Libyan governments to approve the same Libyan Political Agreement(LPA) as his predecessor Bernardino Leon had previously failed to have approved.

Since Kobler took over on November 17, he has pressured the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk in the east and the rival General National Congress(GNC) in Tripoli to both sign the agreement. He has had no more luck than Leon did so far. Kobler insists the text of the LPA and the names of those suggested as senior members of the Government of National Accord(GNA) not be changed. Both parliaments want changes. So far neither parliament has approved the UN plan although Kobler insists that majorities in both parliaments approve the LPA. This has never been tested by a vote.

Kobler never mentions when he expects the two parliaments to meet to vote on the LPA. The HoR was unable to meet again today, December 8, because they could not achieve a quorum. This is apparently now eight times the HoR has been unable to vote because of the lack of a quorum. The pro-Tobruk Libya Herald claims:

This ‘‘spoiler’’ minority in the HoR is believed to represent the president of the HoR, Ageela Salah, and members supported and in support of retired General Hafter.....This is believed to be the very same group of minority HoR members who recently met their minority counterparts from the GNC in Tunis and proposed a new and alternative Libyan-Libyan political agreement.This is biased reporting, showing the Herald supports the Kobler line. Those opposing the LPA are called by the negative term "spoilers." The other aspect of the situation is the 92 members of the HoR who signed a statement supporting the LPA did so with two provisions, one being Hafter stay on as commander of chief of the Libyan National Army — a provision in direct contradiction to the present LPA and completely unacceptable to the rival government and many others as well. Kobler applauded the statement by the 92 members in spite of the fact that their position actually rejects the LPA as it is. Those who propose the Libya-Libya agreement could hardly be Haftar supporters. Haftar supporters reject the whole idea that the GNC has any legitimacy. They would never talk with them and even less would they agree to a committee that has equal numbers from each government to choose members of an interim government. This skewed reporting is perhaps just another ploy to support the Kobler LPA while ignoring reality.

Late in November, the HoR met to vote on the LPA but after a fight, the meeting was suspended with no vote. It was at that time that Kobler praised the statement of the 92 members as a majority supporting the LPA in principle even though the statement rejects the LPA in fact. His latest release from the UN website continues the refrain that the existing LPA is the only way forward towards a political solution and fails even to mention the new agreement reached recently by some members of the HoR and GNC who met in Tunis without participation of the UN in order to reach an agreement between the two main Libyan rivals without foreign interference. Not surprisingly, there has been considerable negative reaction to the development and the UN is continuing as if the existing LPA is as Kobler's release says, the only way forward.

A number of international ambassadors to Libya have supported Kobler insisting as he does that the UN LPA is the only way forward, and implying that the new deal was an attempt to derail the UN process:A statement by the ambassadors and special envoys of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the US, along with the head of the EU delegation, came after Libya's rival parliaments announced a deal of their own that was reached without UN participation.The reporting by the Daily Mail here is not accurate. The two parliaments did not announce a deal of their own it was announced by a group representing members of both parliaments. The deal has not been approved by either parliament.

The Libya Herald reports that 92 members of the HoR, in a statement, criticized the agreement agreed to between "minority" members of the HoR and GNC. The Herald claims that the 92 had supported the LPA brokered by the UN. That is simply not true. They approved the principle of an LPA but demanded changes in it before they would approve it. This misreporting is deliberate I expect. The statement refers to the minority as "hardliners" whose views had been "overriden" by the political dialogue "due to their refusal of its outcomes." Of course this is not so, because the dialogue result which they reject has never been approved by either parliament.

Apparently there is a meeting planned between the HoR president Salah and the GNC president Nuri Abu Sahmain. The statement reminds the two, they must accept a set of principles including:

1- To admit to the existence of terrorism (in Libya) and pledge to fighting it.

2- To admit that what is happening in Benghazi is a war against terrorism undertaken by the Libyan army.

3- To recognize that the military institution related to the HoR is a professional one and its legitimacy is unquestionable.

4- To adhere to stopping the support of what is called Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC) by all means politically, financially and militarily.

Principle 3 contradicts the Kobler LPA, which has senior members of the GNA carrying out the function of commander in chief and not Khalifa Haftar, as at present. The principle is a thinly disguised warning that Haftar cannot be removed from his position. Principles 2 and 4 would also be rejected by the GNC. While they accept fighting terrorism as represented by groups such as the Islamic State, they make alliances with other radical groups such as BRSC, mentioned in principle 4. They see the war in Benghazi as against their ally the BRSC whom they do not regard as terrorists. However, there do seem to be Islamic State fighters in Benghazi as well.

Although the statement attributed itself to 92 HoR members, there were no names or signatures attached to it. There is to be an international meeting on Libya in Rome this Sunday.

Resumed Libyan peace dialogue in Geneva may be doomed from the outset

The United Nations intends to begin a new round of dialogue talks on Monday in Geneva. However, the talks may be doomed from the start unless the General National Congress government based in Tripoli agrees to send representatives.

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The UN announced last Thursday that the conference would be held this Monday but the location has not been known until now. While Bernardino Leon, the UN special envoy to Libya who has been arranging the discussions, talks of the "significant progress achieved to date," as I stated in a recent article, the progress can be summed up as follows:The progress includes a non-agreement that was rejected by one of the two rival governments, the General National Congress government based in Tripoli. While the internationally-recognized government based in Tobruk accepted the draft peace agreement, Kahlifa Haftar, commander of the armed forces, and the air force head have rejected it... Haftar refuses to talk with Tripoli's Libya Dawn militia and vows that he will not agree to a ceasefire with them. He considers them terrorists. The "significant process" so far is to isolate the GNC government by having other parties initial an agreement that Leon must have known the government could not sign.Leon has tried to divide the Tripoli supporters and has managed to get some municipal representatives from Misrata and even Tripoli municipalities to sign on to the draft. He also met with military commanders from Misrata without obtaining approval from the Tripoli government central command.

Leon hopes to go ahead and name a prime minister and two deputies who would then appoint a cabinet in consultation with dialogue participants. But if the GNC representatives do not attend this will ensure that there will be no political solution at all. In spite of this, foreign interests may want the formation of the Government of National Accord or unity government. This government will then be used as a vehicle to call for foreign intervention, which is already being prepared. Yet, even if by threats and enticements the forces behind all this manipulation manage to create a unity government, it is not clear that such a government would support foreign intervention. In any event neither the Tripoli forces nor the Tobruk forces of Khalifa Haftar agree to the Leon Plan as it is now called. As a recent article in the usually pro-Tobruk Libya Heraldsums it up: So far Leon has not seriously engaged either the HoR’s army commander General Khalifa Hafter, or Misratan Saleh Badhi, commander of the Samoud Front, the most hard-core of the Libya Dawn militia groupings. The presence of either man at the talks would trigger almost certain boycott from their enemies, yet no peace plan will be worth the paper it is written on without their agreement.For some time, I have been writing a whole series of critical articles on what is happening in the dialogue process. I wrote back in the beginning of July that Leon appeared to be deliberately taking actions that would isolate the GNC government by amendments to the fourth draft agreement that favoured the Tobruk House of Representatives(HoR) and deleted powers that the GNC had been given before the amendments. Then Leon went on to have participants initial an agreement in the absence of one main party to the conflict the GNC. I pointed out the absurdity of this. Now it seems other commentators are finally also taking note of the reality of what is happening while the mainstream press contents itself with reporting anodyne factoids devoid of most significant contextual content or any critical analysis. As well as the Libya Herald article just cited written by Hadi Fornaji, there is an even more critical article by Emadeddin Zahri Muntasser at the International Policy Digest appropriately titled "When an Agreement Isn't."

Muntasser sums up the contradictory nature of what is happening in his first sentence: In their determination to produce a Libyan peace agreement, western governments appear willing to sacrifice both peace and agreement to accomplish their goal.

He points out there is no agreement on a political settlement in spite of all the hoopla and praise from the UN, the U.S., the EU, and others. This should be obvious but few analysts appear the least bit fazed in the face of absurd claims as long they are advanced by those who count.Muntasser is the first analyst I have seen who describes the pressure put on delegates to sign onto the Leon plan:Elected members of the Parliament and of the GNC have been threatened with UN sanctions; the French Ambassador to Libya threatened the freezing of assets of the Libyan Central bank; the IMF Chief has done an about-face on the long-standing internationally accepted policy of recognizing an independent Libyan Central Bank, and so on. Such pressure to approve a UN plan, and the pressure from outside the country directed at elected representatives of the Libyan people, is hardly “by Libyans on behalf of the Libyan people.”Mantasser notes as well that Leon is intent on going ahead with formation of the Government of National Accord with or without the participation of the GNC, or of the military forces of Tripoli or the Tobruk government. How the pending disaster can be avoided is not clear.

We will find out tomorrow if representatives of the GNC will even show up at the Geneva meeting. The Libya Herald, a pro-Tobruk news outlet, says they will while the pro-GNC Libya Observer did not know whether they will or not. Translations from the Arabic of a friend on Facebookwhose father is involved in the negotiations suggests that they will not go unless they have written notification that amendments to the fifth draft will be considered. Leon's most recent statements have not clarified this issue. The GNC thinks that he will consider amendments but most others think he will not.

The Libya Observer has just issued an update on the situation. The GNC mandated its president Nuri Sahmain to contact Leon to make sure that the GNC amendments to the Leon plan be put on the table before GNC representatives will attend any future dialogue rounds. The GNC statement claims that both sides agreed in Algeria that the Libyan political agreement " will not be finally approved unless it is accepted and signed by the GNC." Sahmain has already sent the request to Leon and is awaiting a response from Leon tonight or tomorrow. The GNC is ready to send representatives to Geneva tomorrow if the response from Leon is positive.