Eastern commander Haftar captures central desert area of Al Jufra in Libya

(June 7)Forces loyal to Field Marshal Kahlifa Hafter, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) of the House of Representatives Government (HoR) based in eastern Libya have advanced his power by capturing the Al Jufra region of south central Libya.

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Writing in the Libya Observer, freelance journalist Abdelkader Assad claims that the forces of Haftar's Operation Dignity are close to their dream of entering Tripoli after he gained ground in Al Jufra capturing the towns of Hun, Waddan, and the Al Jufra air base. Earlier he had taken theTimnahent air base without a fight as the Third Force and Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) abandoned it. After failing in a coup attempt, Haftar launched his Operation Dignity way back in May 2014:

In February 2014, Haftar appeared in a televised announcement to reveal that the General National Congress (GNC), which had recently unilaterally extended its mandate, had been dissolved. Haftar called for a caretaker government to oversee new elections. His announcement was soon dismissed with great skepticism by the then acting Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. Haftar's actions were condemned as a "coup attempt" and "ridiculous".[27][28]] Three months later on 16 May in Operation Dignity, Haftar began a combined air and ground assault against the pro-Islamic militias of Benghazi, as well as a sustained heavy weapons attack against the Libyan parliament.[2Operation Dignity is still ongoing and to a considerable extent is the source of the present conflict with the GNA.

Haftar''s advances have been helped by bombing by foreign aircraft probably Egyptian. The Egyptians bombed the eastern city of Derna held by Islamists who had driven the Islamic State out of the city using the excuse that camps in Derna had been used to train fighters who attacked Coptic Christians in Egypt. Haftar has several times threatened to drive his militia enemies from Tripoli. Assad thinks that Haftar will use his bases in Al Jufra to "takeoff to Tripoli and western Libya" It is more likely that Haftar will move to other places such as Bani Walid first as Assad himself mentions. He would then continue to Misrata before entering Tripoli. He may be waiting to see if there will be a political process which would go as he wants. So far there has been plenty of talk and meetings but no announcement of when and where there will be a dialogue to amend the present Libya Political Agreement (LPA) or if and when the HoR will meet to vote confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). The HoR last rejected the GNA on August 22nd 2016 and there has been little evident progress towards a solution since then, in spite of a highly hyped meeting in early May between the head of the GNA presidential council (PC) Fiez Serraj and the eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. There were all sorts of rumored agreements but not a single actual agreement was signed. So-called agreements were mostly propaganda and bargaining positions of Haftar.

Leaders of the Misrata city military council, Battalion No.40 of the Bunayn Marsous Operations Room(BAM), have ordered the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) to surrender their weapons and their leader Mustafa al-Sharksi. If they refuse the Misratans said they would use force. BAM supervised the offensive which took the city of Sirte from the Islamic State(IS) The militant anti-Haftar BDB fighters are at the Baghla junction on the road south of Misrata to Abu Grain. This development further weakens the anti-Haftar forces. Haftar would no doubt be quite happy to see Misratan forces battling with the BDB instead of his own forces doing so.

In the east, the Ajdabiya anti-terrorism authority of the LNA said that it had seized a BDB camp near Sukna taking a number of the group prisoners, and seizing 12 tanks, several armoured vehicles and a stash of ammunition. In preparation for political negotiations, the GNA has an odd strategy. It is making itself weaker and helping Haftar grow stronger. Is there some group within the PC trying to throw those opposed to Haftar under the bus?

New Libyan National Guards formed in Libya

(February 9) A number of different armed groups mainly from Misrata have announced the formation of the Libyan National Guards (LNG). Reports claim that dozens of Misratan vehicles entered the capital Tripoli overnight.

According to the Libya Herald the Guards are backing Khalifa Ghwell. Ghwell is the former prime minister of the former National Salvation government that was a rival to the then internationally-recognized government of the House of Representatives (HoR). After the Libyan Political Agreement(LPA) signed in Skhirat Morocco in December of 2015, the Salvation government was weakened. Neither it nor the HoR government recognized the GNA. However, many from the Salvation Government eventually joined the GNA as part of the High State Council. They met as the former General National Congress, the legislature of the Salvation Govenrment, dissolved it and then met as the High State Council. The GNA seized many ministries and militia loyal to the GNA seized the Rixos complex which was the headquarters of the GNC.

On October 16 GNC in what was consdiered a coup attempt Ghwell and armed supporters took back control of the Rixos complex. The GNA has never been able to retake the complex. Many of the GNA's Presidential Guards defected and gave support to the coup plotters. Now it seems that there are an even larger group of heavily armed brigades that will serve as a direct threat to the GNA.

Brigadier Mahmoud Al-Zigal announced the forming of the group. He said that the LNG is not linked to an political party and would operate away from regional, tribal, and politiical disputes. Its main objective was to rid Libya of the remnants of the Islamic State(IS). Although the IS no longer retains control of significant territory since their defeat in Sirte, there are still IS cells here and there throughout Libya no doubt.

Al-Zigal also said:“We will work on the protection of the state facilities and will guard the borders of Libya. We will fight the chaos caused by the spread of arms and shall defend all embassies and foreign diplomatic missions, in addition to our participation in fighting the illegal migration.”

The Presidency Council of the GNA has assigned these tasks to the new Presidential Guard. Just 3 days ago the EU applauded the deployment of the first units of the Guard. According to the Libya Herald the LNG is said to be under the authority of the remnants of the GNC the coup plotters led by Khalifa Ghwell.

Recent clashes in Tripoli have already involved gunmen loyal to Salah Al-Burki whose vehicles bore the insignia of the new LNG. His group clashed with the Abu Sleem Central Security Force of Ghneiwa. One of their main aides was killed in the clashes and they have vowed revenge. The Libya Observer notes that the Libyan National Guard was formed earlier:The Libyan National Guard was formed by the General National Congress in 2015. Military sources close to LNG confirmed that the new established force would not operate under the Salvation Government.It is surprising that the Observer would report that the LNG would not operate under the auspices of the Salvation Government since it, unlike the Herald, was favorable to that government on the whole. It certainly seems that the Guards do not recognize the GNA and is not linked to the eastern HoR government. Unless it recognizes the GNC Salvation government it hardly can claim any authority to guard borders or protect diplomats. It is amazing that the GNA has allowed the coup plotters to remain in control of their headquarters since last October without making any move to dislodge them. With this new development the GNA will be forced to once and for all defeat the group using force.

It is not clear what relationship this new group has to another group formed by the Misrata Military Council. This group joined the Libya Army as discussed in a recent DJ article. These groups however pledged loyalty to the GNA government. No doubt the two groups display a split within Misrata brigades between those who support the GNA and those who do not.

Two-day meeting on Libya crisis produces few positive results and no new plans

(November 11) After a two-day meeting of members of the Libyan Political Dialogue that discussed the political process and obstacles to implementing the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) no new suggestions were made to resolve the political crisis.

The GNA together with the UN envoy Martin Kobler have been trying for months to have the House of Representatives pass a vote of confidence in the GNA as required by the LPA. So far, the HoR has rejected the GNA twice, the last time on August 22. The GNA was to present a new slimmed-down cabinet of 8 members. Well over two months later, there is still no sign of members having been chosen. There is no date set or deadline for any vote in the HoR on the issue.

A key reason why the HoR will not accept the GNA and LPA as things are, is that the LPA has a provision that makes the Presidential Council (PC) of the GNA commander in chief. Neither the HoR nor Field Marshal Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army of the HoR government, will accept this and want the section deleted. Haftar wants to remain commander of the armed forces. Kobler has insisted that the LPA can be amended only after it is passed as it is. I thought that the meeting in Malta might result in the amendment of the LPA by the Libyan Dialogue Members who originally signed it. This obviously did not happen. Without such a move it seems difficult to see how the GNA will be able to obtain a vote of confidence from the HoR.

In the statement following the meetings found on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) there is not even a mention of the need for the GNA to obtain a vote of confidence from the HoR. There is no mention either of the PC presenting a new list of cabinet members to the HoR. The statement only calls on the HoR to amend the Constitutional Declaration as required by the LPA. This would incorporate the GNA into the constitution. It seems unlikely that the HoR would do this since they do not recognize the GNA. Until they are willing to vote confidence in the GNA it seems unlikely that they would agree to incorporate it in the constitution.

The statement urged the PC "to improve its performance to address the stifling security, social and economic problems that face Libyan citizens across the country." This is a recommendation that probably met almost universal agreement among members. The group also calls upon all parties not to use violence or weapons to solve conflicts.

The group also commended the progress in fighting and defeating terrorism in Libya without mentioning specific actions such as the offensive against Sirte or naming any person or groups responsible for the progress, Nothing which could be the least bit offensive to anyone is allowed to appear in most of the statement. The group also welcomed local attempts at reconciliation.

The group decided that they would continue to discuss obstacles to peace at a further meeting to take place in mid-December. The Libya Herald in its coverage notes that many of the proposals in the statement are unlikely to be implemented. There is another meeting on the situation in Libya sponsored by the African Union. At the meeting, Idriss Déby Itno, President of Chad, who chaired the meeting said, “there is no military solution” for Libya. So far there is no solution of any kind. Khalifa Haftar has claimed that there is a military solution.

Septuagenarian able to disrupt meetings of the Libyan House of Representatives

Locals talk of Faraj Al-Obaidi, in his seventies, as the unelected member of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives. He can roam at will in the parliament halls without any restrictions.

Al-Obaidi claims that the Dar Al-Salam Hotel, which is used as the meeting place for the HoR, is his, since it was built on his land. Al-Obaidi is known as one of the senior elders in the eastern area of Libya known as Cyrenaica. He appears able to disrupt meetings at any time, but members welcome him because of his influence and followers in Tobruk. Al-Obaidi is a strong supporter of General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA).

He has often interfered in meetings as can be seen on this video, from November 2015. This was a debate on signing the draft of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) which would eventually be signed on December 17th as the Skhirat agreement. The HoR did not sign it. Faraj threatened to gun down MP's if they signed the agreement. Other Tobruk elders managed to calm him down and remove him.

This Monday Faraj was at it again, threatening force if members approved the GNA. The Monday meeting did not result in a vote and there was no vote on Tuesday either. The Libya Observer notes that tribalism has deep roots in Libya politics. Tribal elders have considerable influence on politics. The paper notes that last week Al-Tayeb Al-Safi, who was a Gaddafi henchmen, returned to Tobruk from exile and immediately was protected by his tribe. In January, spokesperson for Haftar and the Dignity Operation, Mohammed Al-Hijazi defected and was highly critical of Haftar. Haftar has not moved against him as he is protected by his tribe.

After Tuesday's meeting a committee of six from each side met to work out an agreement. It was thought that there could be an agreement and meeting as early as today but a tweet indicates it will not happen: "Tobruk Parliament was unable to meet Thursday due to spoilers."

A cartoon and statue featuring Obaidi can be found here. The appended video shows a demonstration against LPA signed in Skhirat on December 17th. The caption saying the LPA was agreed to by the two parliaments is wrong. Neither parliament signed, just unauthorized members of each. The demonstration was on December 19th.

It is puzzling that this old man with a cane is able to disrupt meetings of the HoR in the face of over a hundred members supposedly anxious to vote for the GNA. Given that the HoR cannot even meet safely in Tobruk what will happen when it moves to Tripoli as the legislature of the GNA?

John Kerry, US Secretary of State, visits UAE and promises joint action on Libya

United States Secretary of State, John Kerry, met on November 23 with United Arab Emirates(UAE) Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Kerry will visit Israel and Palestine as well.

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Kerry will be discussing Syria and other crises in the Middle East. In the UAE he talked to the foreign minister about the situation in Libya. A new UN Special Envoy to Libya has just taken over from the former Special Envoy, Bernardino Leon. Leon worked for almost a year to draft a final Libya Political Agreement(LPA) and proposed names for a Government of National Accord. Neither the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) parliament based in Tobruk nor the rival General National Congress(GNC) have approved or even voted on the LPA. Leon left the UN position under a cloud as he was in a blatant conflict of interest situation.

While acting as a supposedly impartial mediator between the two rival Libyan governments, Leon accepted last June a job in the UAE that paid over $1,500 a day. Leaked emails also show he consulted with and even took direction from the UAE. The UAE is a strong supporter of the HoR government and its chief military commander, Khalifa Haftar. The UAE is also accused of shipping arms to the HoR and Haftar in violation of a UN ban on weapons shipments to Libya. The UAE was accused by the U.S. of clandestinely bombing Tripoli last year with the help of Egypt.

Kerry said the United States together with the UAE would take steps soon to address the situation in Libya:“We also talked very seriously today about Libya, and we are committed to taking steps in the next weeks, months to try to address that situation,”Kerry makes no mention of the LPA that many foreign countries and the UN have pressured the two rival governments to sign. Mystery planes bombed Islamic State positions in the city of Sirte recently. No one seems to have followed up to find out whose planes they might have been. Neither of the two rival governments claim responsibility. Perhaps the U.S. will join in with the UAE in bombing Sirte. The U.S. recently attacked Islamic State positions outside of Derna and claim to have killed an Islamic State leader although the IS denies that the leader was killed.

The new UN envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, has had talks with both rival governments urging them to sign on to the agreement. The French Defence Minister along with many others also urge signing of the agreement and warn that not to do so would be a victory for the Islamic State. The Islamic State main base now is in the city of Sirte and area. Contrary to numerous reports, there is little evidence that it is gaining much if any territory. In fact it has lost what was long its main base and stronghold the city of Derna. The Italian Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation also urged the signing of the agreement when he met Kobler.

There are no reports yet as to when the two parliaments will meet again to vote on the LPA. Kobler has insisted the agreement cannot be amended even though the GNC requested amendments and the HoR claims the draft is not acceptable as it is. There is not even discussion of any parallel military dialogue to ensure that there is a ceasefire and disarmament. Without this the implementation of any political agreement will be impossible.

New UN Libyan Envoy Martin Kobler meets with members of rival governments

Over the weekend, the new UN Special Envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, met first with representatives of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) in Tobruk and the General National Congress(GNC) in Tripoli.

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Apparently there is an internationally accepted adjective to describe those who disagree with the deal and refuse to vote on it. Reuters for example claims:U.N.-sponsored talks to end the conflict between Libya's two rival governments and their armed factions have stalled since hardliners in both camps have resisted voting on the deal, which Western governments hope will lead to stability.Perhaps those who want to approve the deal are "wimps" who gave in to constant pressure from the UN and the international community together with threats of sanctions against those who oppose the agreement or the process. The "hardliners" could be "principled" members in each camp who did not sell out.

The press is full of what appears to be straight reporting that is slanted in obvious ways. For example Reuters reports: New envoy Martin Kobler met over the weekend with the internationally recognized government and elected parliament in the east, and with representatives of the self-declared government in Tripoli and its parliament.The GNC government is not referred to as such by Reuters and certainly not by what it calls itself, the Salvation Government. It is the"self-declared" government in Tripoli as contrasted with the "elected parliament" and "internationally-recognized" government in the east. Those elections were declared unconstitutional by the Libya Supreme Constitutional court in November of 2014 which ruled the parliament should be considered "dissolved." The turnout for the elections was under 18 percent. A number who were elected have boycotted the Tobruk parliament. The mandate for the "elected" government ran out on Oct. 22, which was why Leon wanted the unity government in place by then. It no longer has any legal status. It should be called the self-declared extended mandate government. GNC media sources usually refer to the HoR as the "dissolved parliament." Now I have that off my chest I'll get back to the issue of Kobler's talks.

Kobler issued a press release through the UN Support Mission for Libya(UNSMIL) website after his meeting in Tobruk with the HoR but so far there has been nothing on the site about his meeting in Tripoli. Just as with his predecessor Leon, and the UN, he is putting pressure on the HoR to sign the agreement: Now my message was very clear: I will take up the process where my predecessor left it. We cannot reopen the Libyan agreement now. I encouraged and I urged the members of the House of Representatives to go for a positive vote.

Kobler is flogging the same old dead horse which has stalled the whole process. Kobler and his bosses must think they can somehow force the two parliaments to do what they have refused to do for many weeks. Leon claimed there were majorities in both parliaments that could pass the LPA. Personally I doubt that. I think the reason that there has been no vote is that neither side wants to be blamed for rejecting the agreement. If a vote were forced in the HoR and the agreement passed there could very well be a military coup by Haftar who rejects the agreement.

In any event, a vote at this juncture would probably be divisive in both parliaments. Any political agreement(LPA) is unenforceable without a parallel military agreement between Haftar and the forces of the GNC, but Haftar refuses to negotiate with them or even contemplate a ceasefire. Even Leon noted a parallel military agreement was necessary several times. All Kobler says his emphasis will be on security. He has never explained what he means to do. He has said nothing about a parallel military dialogue.

Kobler said: "We maybe need a quick round of consultation, but not to change the draft... I will not open the draft. I push for quick decisions, but not for hasty decisions." Kobler has already made a hasty decision not to change the draft. The HoR has rejected the draft in a statement and demands changes. The GNC has demanded amendments. The two parliaments are being forced to vote on an agreement against their wishes. Both parliaments have made this perfectly clear but this just does not fit in with the reality as the UN sees it. Here is the reality as seen by the UN: The United Nations never imposed. We always will respect your sovereignty. We will always respect dialogue. We will always respect what you wish.

The United Nations never imposed. It tried to, even went on with the farce of trying to form a unity government when one party the GNC had not even initialled the draft. Perhaps it decided it might be better to try and get the GNC to sign on because otherwise there would be sure to be a continuing civil war. Now the same strategy is to use whatever leverage they can to force the Libyan governments to do what the UN wants. If the UN respects what Libyans wish, how is it that they refuse to consider the wish of both sides to alter the document and why does the UN go on treating those the UN named as part of the GNA as if they are somehow already significant figures? There is no dialogue anymore; there is simple arm twisting and who knows what carrots and sticks are being used as incentives to hold a vote?

Faiez Serraj, the prime minister-designate in Leon's draft, had talks in Egypt with officials on terrorism and support for the new Libyan GNA. He is now apparently in Algiers, invited there by the Algerian government. He will discuss the same subjects. There is no GNA, both Libyan parliaments have rejected the LPA and some of the names presented by Leon. The GNC submitted no names. The HoR submitted names but Serraj was not one of their names for prime minister.

The press release itself shows a complete lack of even the most elementary professionalism. There are two questions. In the text all that it says is "inaudible." I assume someone taped the session and then transcribed it. They could not hear what the question was but included the text of the answer. Surely it would have been no great task to have found out what the question was and included it. There is also lax proof reading. I thought only I am usually good at that. At least the typographical glitch provides some comic relief from what is mostly standard rhetorical garbage that almost always overlays reality in UN releases:I took up the process where Bernardino Leon left it, and Bernardino Leon is Bernardino Leon and Martin Kobler is Marin Kobler.At least Martin Kobler is working undercover for Marin Kobler and not for the UAE as Bernardino Leon appeared to have been.

New UN Special Envoy to Libya plans to restart dialogue talks

This is the first day--November 18-- on the job for veteran German diplomat Martin Kobler as Special Envoy from the UN to Libya. Kobler takes over from Bernardino Leon, who leaves under a cloud.

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Leon accepted a high-paying job in the UAE back in June while he was acting as a mediator in charge of dialogue talks between the two rival LIbyan governments. One government is the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) located in Tobruk, and the other is the General National Congress(GNC) located in the west of Libya in the capital Tripoli. The UAE strongly favours the HoR government and the commander of its armed forces, Khalifa Haftar. Emails leaked to the Guardian show Leon took directions from and communicated with officials from the UAE. Leon said he intended to weaken and discredit the GNC and increase the power of the HoR. Neither Leon nor the UN have admitted there was any conflict of interest.

Leon was able to end up with a Libya Political Agreement(LPA) that includes a Government of National Accord(GNA) but neither parliament voted on the LPA in spite of pressure from Leon, the UN security council, and the international community. The GNC wants amendments to the LPA. Leon said that was impossible and then amended it himself. The HoR issued a statement rejecting the LPA although a number of members disassociated themselves from that statement. The HoR keeps postponing votes on the LPA. This week the HoR will not meet to vote on the LPA since the president, Ageela Salah, is off to a UNESCO meeting.

Kobler worked in the past, in UN missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Iraq as well. Kobler said he will restart talks with the rival Libyan factions in order to deal with outstanding issues related to the GNA or unity government. Kobler stressed that there should be continuity of the dialogue process and he would build on what Leon had achieved.

The announcement of Kobler's appointment appeared recently on the UNSMIL website and was discussed in a recent DJ article. Today Kobler has his own release on his immediate plans.

As part of continuing the dialogue process, Kobler indicated, within the next few days:I will listen to the members of the political dialogue and the proposed Presidency Council as well as various other Libyan partners to address and finalise the remaining small number of outstanding issues.Why would he talk to the "proposed Presidency Council"? These people have no status at all except as proposed by the UN. Both sides in the conflict have rejected many of the names. This process gets off on the wrong foot. Many will feel the UN and the international community are trying to ram an LPA down their throat to please the UN bosses in the international community who want a unity government so they can intervene in Libya with the blessing of a unity government.

Kobler then says he wants to build on the momentum to bring about an endorsement of the Libyan Political Agreement in the immediate future. What momentum? The process was stalled with the UN security council, among others, fruitlessly pressing the parties to sign on to the LPA. Perhaps Kobler should read the article by Abubakr Buera who claims Leon was wrong to press for a vote and agreement before conditions made it possible to pass the LPA. He considers voting on an LPA in the HoR at present will likely divide Libya into two if passed. Kobler needs realize that in the HoR, Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the armed forces, rejects the present draft and no doubt any draft that does not leave him as commander in chief. If the HoR were to pass an LPA that took away his job, there could very well be a military coup. How would Kobler propose to prevent that?

Perhaps, as some of the parties suggest, there should be meetings of various Libyan parties independently of the UN. In a number of areas, militia groups in the west of Libya have managed to forge agreements that involved ceasefires, providing at least a degree of security in areas formerly subject to constant clashes. Jason Pack recently wrote an article claiming Libya needs to be liberated from the UN.

Kobler says he has as another priority — the discussion of security-related issues with the various Libyan actors. This is very vague. Continuing what I call the UN non-speak protocol, Kobler gives as little information as possible. Of course there is no mention of the Leon scandal or the obvious lack of impartiality evident in the process while Leon was in charge. Kobler's conclusion follows a typical UN diplomatic template:The work of the United Nations will always be guided by the relevant Security Council resolutions and by the long-standing principles of impartiality, and upholding Libya’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.

Nine dead and 35 wounded in attack on Benghazi protest in Libya

The death toll resulting from a mortar attack on demonstrators in Kish Square in Benghazi Libya rose to nine, with another 35 reported injured some seriously.

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The demonstration continued even as ambulances removed the dead and wounded. A crowd of up to 2,000 continued to shout against the United Nations Support Mission in Libya(UNSML) and special envoy Bernardino Leon, whose Libya Political Agreement(LPA) they reject. The group accuses the UN of backing the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism. The crowd demanded a removal of the UN arms embargo which has at least slowed the flow of weapons to Khalifa Haftar, head of the internationally-recognized House or Representatives(HoR) armed forces. He has never stopped his Operation Dignity, intended to drive out Islamists from Libya and that includes the militia of the rival GNC government. The crowd was obviously in support of Haftar. One chant was: “Today, Today, Leon go away”. Police say the mortar rounds were fired from districts of Benghazi still held by Islamic State fighters. Haftar's Operation Dignity began in Benghazi in May of 2014 and he has constantly announced that he is on the point of driving all Islamists out of Benghazi. There are still some areas held by an Islamic Shura Council as well. For a time they held almost all the city, until Haftar went on the offensive. The city is in ruins from shelling and bombings, the latter carried out by Haftar, probably with the help of Egypt.

Hospitals are running out of supplies. The Benghazi Diabetes Diagnosis Center had been operating for 45 years but closed down just this week. The staff blamed the HoR government of Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni: The staff described the closure as a black day in the history of the center, holding Al-Thanni government responsible for this tragedy. Meanwhile, 15 hospitals and health centers in Benghazi said in a statement they would disown health minister Reda Al-Okali for his inattention and failure to provide appropriate services

The UN immediately issued a statement condemning the Benghazi mortar attack. Ignoring the fact that the protest was against the UN and Leon's attempt to create a unity Government of National Accord, the UN simply continued with their rhetoric about the need for unity: Their best response to the perpetrators of this ugly crime in Benghazi today is by working together to bring peace to Libya. Only through unity can terrorism be confronted and violence brought to an end.Neither the demonstrators nor Haftar want unity or dialogue. They want the defeat of the GNC and its militia. They will use attacks of the Islamic State to argue that the west needs to help them.

So far, most western countries and the UN are supporting Leon's Libya Political Agreement(LPA), but it seems the situation can not continue as it is with neither parliament agreeing to the LPA and many demonstrations against it in the areas of the two rival governments. Leon is nowthreatening sanctions against those he claims are preventing a vote on the LPA in the HoR and also the GNC. No one pays the least attention to these threats. He has been making these threats for almost a year. One set of sanctions against individuals failed to pass through the UN Security Council as there were objections from Russia and China. Haftar and his air force chief were to be sanctioned by the EU but instead Haftar got pledges of support from Egypt, the Arab League and the UAE, and he also negotiated a military agreement with Jordan. Western policy functions only at the level of rhetoric so far. Unless this changes there can be no Government of National Accord.

The latest threat is to deny the HoR recognition since it unilaterally extended its mandate. It is now of doubtful legitimacy. Leon suggested the price of gaining legitimacy would be to sign on to the LPA. However, if it is not legitimate how can its signing on to the LPA be valid? This is just one more threat that works only at the level of rhetoric. So far not a single country has said that it no longer recognized the HoR. Leon is supposed to host more talks next week but this attack has had consequences that make any talks of limited use.

Most of the municipal councils in Cyrenaica, the part of eastern Libya run by the HoR, announced that they would no longer participate in the UN-sponsored dialogue that is scheduled to begin again in Skhirat Morocco next Tuesday. The HoR had already announced that they were planning to change their negotiating team. The pro-HoR Libya Herald suggests it is unlikely that they will approve a new team before that time. Even if they do approve a new team it may be filled with hardliners to ensure that the negotiations do not agree to something that the HoR will later reject.

UN's special envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon has term extended

The UN Special Envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, has been asked to continue his work even after the refusal of both rival governments in Libya to approve his final draft of the Libyan Political Agreement after a year of negotiations.

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Leon had set a final deadline of October 20 for the approval of the agreement, one of many deadlines the two sides have ignored. The next day the mandate of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) ran out. The HoR earlier had unilaterally extended its mandate, but this is likely illegal as the mandate was supposed to be extended only by a referendum. However, under the Libyan Political Agreement, the HoR could have continued but under the terms of the LPA as approved by both sides. Leon and many in the international community have put pressure on the HoR to sign the agreement with Leon even suggesting that the HoR must sign the agreement to obtain international recognition. So far no country has come forth with an announcement that it no longer recognizes the HoR or that it has decided the General National Congress(GNC) is now the legitimate government. The GNC has long made this claim since the Libyan Supreme Constitutional Court ruled last November the elections for the HoR were unconstitutional and the HoR should be dissolved. The international community has ignored the ruling. The UN has been "studying it" for over a year now.

Leon was originally scheduled to leave his post by the end of this month and be replaced by veteran German diplomat Martin Kobler. Italian Foreign Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, announced the extension while briefing an Italian parliamentary committee on Libya. He said Leon still hoped to reach a final agreement and "get out of the ambiguities" preventing a settlement. No time was put on his extension. Leon is known to want to return to Spanish politics and become foreign minister if the Socialist Party wins elections on December 20. Diplomats claim Kobler's job was to oversee the implementation of the LPA, not to negotiate it, as Leon has been doing.

Even Fox news took time out from covering Hillary Clinton on Libya and report on the impasse developing on Libya. Leon noted while speaking in Tunis that he came there to "insist that the process goes on, that there is no chance for a small group of personalities to hijack this process...The international community, the Security Council is saying this cannot happen." Note that Leon does not make announcements from inside Libya, since he would be in danger no matter which area he was in. When he tried to visit Tobruk,where the HoR is located, his plane could not land due to protests on the ground. As shown in the appended video and image there are protests against Leon in areas controlled by each rival government.

The international community must be well aware that the commander of the HoR armed forces, Khalifa Haftar, has been carrying on a military campaign called Operation DIgnity since May of 2014 and has his own plan B rather than those of the UN. He has paid no attention to the UN. He has bombed his own people numerous times, following the Gadaffi line that he is hitting terrorists. He includes the militia forces of the GNC as terrorists. The EU threatened him with sanctions but never implemented them. Since then Haftar has gained support from Egypt, the UAE, the Arab League and signed a military agreement with Jordan. He has pledged allegiance to the HoR, but only if they reject the LPA. He has prevented his own prime minister from leaving Libya twice. He also has control of who is named to prime minister Al-Thinni's parliament.

Haftar's view is that the international community should lift the ban on sending arms to Libya and send weapons and other support to him to fight terrorism. In reaction to the UN's pressure, Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni issued his own lecture to the international community and the UN as to how both were encouraging terrorism by not supporting the Haftar campaign. He spoke of violence from terrorists in Benghazi, Sirte, and Derna. He seems not to have noticed that the Islamic State has been driven out of Derna by other Islamists and is run by a Shura Council. Sirte is in the GNC area of control and it should be them that are complaining. They would not allow Haftar forces in the area. Al-Thinni duly rants on, no doubt with material vetted by Haftar:“We hold fully responsible UNSMIL, the United Nations and the Security Council for the daily loss of innocent civilians lives, because they are not serious about taking measures that will support the legitimate institutions in Libya and most importantly the Libyan army in its war against terrorism”.It is not the HoR and Haftar who are threatening international security by refusing to agree to the LPA and Government of National Accord. It is the UN through the United Nations Support Mission in Libya(UNSML) and the international community who do so by refusing to support Haftar in his war against terrorism.

Commander of LIbya Army, Haftar pledges allegiance to government only if they reject peace agreement

CIA-Linked General Khalifa Haftar pledged his loyalty to the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government but only if they reject the Libya Political Agreement(LPA) brokered by UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon.

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Haftar claims the LPA favours those who back terrorism in Libya. Haftar said his hands would not be tied "if the HoR goes too far, under Western dictation and foreign pressure on its president and other members and yields to form a government which calls itself the Accord, but in fact is biased toward the supporters of terrorism in Libya.” The unity government to be formed under the LPA is called the Government of National Accord(GNA).

Haftar said of the Libyan army: “We will not rest until the security of our injured country is restored.” His Operation Dignity, which he started a year ago in May, is intended not just to defeat radical Islamists such as the Islamic State, but the militia of the rival General National Congress government as well, whom he calls Islamist terrorists. Haftar boasted that Russia and "other friendly states" have promised him "colloboration against terrorism" and help in forming a national army capable of dealing with challenges and threats faced by Libya. The UN envoy, Leon, keeps emphasizing that there is only a political solution to the conflict, not a military one. Haftar not only thinks otherwise but has acted otherwise as well. The UN has stood by for over a year while he has constantly ignored UN warnings and laughed off EU threats to sanction him. The UN, meanwhile, is carrying on in some parallel universe that somehow manages to ignore the reality that there is no way that the HoR can pass the LPA as it is.There would need to be an understanding that Haftar will remain as the commander of the Libyan Army. This is incompatible with the LPA as it is written and interpreted by Leon and the GNC. The other day, the pro-HoR Libya Herald reported:

Following a meeting this evening with delegates from eastern tribes, notably the Obeida tribe, HoR members said that they were prepared to endorse the proposed UN-brokered agreement. However any attempt to remove Hafter was a red line for them

The LPA gives the function of commander-in-chief of the armed forces to senior members of the GNA. This is one of the reasons that Haftar rejects it. There is no report yet as to what happened at today's meeting when the HoR was supposed to approve Leon's draft. The rival GNC has not yet approved or rejected the draft.either.

The Political Committee of the GNC has criticized the draft as well as Leon's conduct and accused Leon of double-dealing during the development of the draft. They also noted that Leon claimed he could not further amend the draft to consider more of GNC concerns, while amending it on his own. The group also claimed Leon had favoured the HoR over them. In the end they said they were committed to the dialogue but claimed Leon's actions could lead to rejection of the draft. Neither side wants to be first to reject the draft, but neither side appears willing to accept it without certain guarantees that some of their demands will be met.

The international community and the UN appears to believe that the way to deal with this reality is to threaten any Libyans who object to the LPA with sanctions and hold international meetings to plan ways to help out the new Libyan Government of National Accord:Representatives of 40 countries, UN Agencies, and international bodies, as well as a number of independent Libyan experts, met in London on 19 October at a meeting co-hosted by the UK and UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to agree the most effective way to support a new Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA).

Neither of the two rival governments in Libya have yet agreed to the GNA. Neither of the two rival armed forces have agreed to the GNA. Perhaps, it might be a good idea to concentrate on creating the conditions necessary for there to be a GNA, before elaborating plans as to how to help a government that does not exist. While the UN has a news report on this meeting, there is no reporting on the progress of the dialogue itself.

The two parliaments have ignored the UN deadline. The HoR has unilaterally extended its mandate. Just how is the GNA supposed to be created and how can it take over from the existing rival governments in these conditions? The appended video shows Leon on September 22 announcing everything is now finished and the two rival governments only need to approve or reject the draft. This all had to be done and the GNA up and running by October 20. Instead, there is a huge meeting with representatives from over 40 countries discussing how best to help a non-existent government.

United Nations threatens sanctions against those blocking peace progress

For a long time now the international community and the UN have been cheerleaders for the Libya Political Agreement(LPA) brokered by the UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon.

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The LPA will set up a unity government, the Government of National Accord(GNA), that will do away with the system of rival conflicting governments that exists at present. The eastern part of the country is mostly under control of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) based in Tobruk. Much of the west is controlled by the General National Congress(GNC) government based in Tripoli. The two parliaments were supposed to vote on the agreement several weeks ago. The HoR met to vote a week ago and the next day but put off any vote until today. This is the day before the HoR mandate runs out. Leon had insisted the agreement should be ratified by then so that the new GNA could take power. This obviously will not happen. The HoR has unilaterally extended its mandate in any event.

The UN has stressed that it is authorized to sanction parties that interfere with the dialogue and peace process. Yet, the commander of the HoR armed forces, CIA-linked Khalifa Haftar, has continually blocked any peace process. Back in May of 2014 he started a military campaign, Operation Dignity, to rid Libya of Islamists — according to his version of events. In the process of Operation Dignity, the parliament in Tripoli was burned down. Abdullah al-Thinni, now prime minister of the HoR, was then interim prime minister of the GNC. He called Haftar's actions illegal and noted there was a warrant out for his arrest. Instead of ever arresting Haftar, when he became prime minister of the HoR al-Thinni appointed him commander of the Libyan Army.

Together with international help in some instances, Haftar has bombed his own people several times including Tripoli in August of last year. Of course, Haftar would claim he was attacking terrorist rebels. This is the same claim that Gadaffi made. Haftar also bombed a Tripoli airport before peace talks and on one occasion representatives from the GNC were a day late for the talks as a result. He also bombed Benghazi, probably with the help of Egyptian planes. Haftar has often said he rejects the LPA., will not negotiate with the armed forces of the GNC since they are Islamist terrorists, and he will not agree to a ceasefire with them. Yet the UN has never sanctioned him.

The EU finally decided they had enough of Haftar and did name Haftar and his air force chief as individuals to be sanctioned. This was announced but the media did not follow up on the issue and it seems almost certain that he was not sanctioned. His punishment was to be offered support by Egypt, the UAE, and the Arab League. He also signed a military agreement with Jordan. Haftar called the threat of sanctions meaningless. If the UN were serious about sanctions they would have recommended sanctions not only against Haftar but against al-Thinni and even Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, since she and al-Thinni both took actions that the UN specifically warned would interfere with the peace process.

Leon constantly set deadlines that have been passed and the dialogue process went on. He gave orders that the LPA should be voted on some time ago. Neither parliament complied. We will see what happens today in the HoR.

There is no report on when or if the GNC will vote on the draft. There is division among supporters of the GNC with many opposed to the LPA but others including the municipality of Misrata in favor. However, the important militia group from Misrata, Libya Shield, has rejected the LPA along with Haftar. Given that neither armed forces of the GNC or the HoR have accepted the deal it is not clear how it could ever be enforced unless the UN thinks it can sanction Haftar and his GNC opponents. The pro-HoR Libya Herald says of the situation as of Sunday:

The House of Representatives is due to reconvene tomorrow in Tobruk to continue its debate on the Accord, with strong indications that it is likely to once again delay a decision.The remnant GNC has also refused to back the deal even though, unlike the HoR, its assent is not essential.

Leon has said several times that both parliaments need to approve the deal. This is what the GNC understands as well. If the deal goes ahead with only one parliament approving, this would ensure a continuation of civil war. The HoR may believe it would have the complete support of the international community against the GNC and its militia if this should happen. While a number of HoR members say they support the LPA, they also refuse to have Haftar removed from his position. But the draft LPA assigns the function of commander-in-chief of the Libyan Army to senior members of the GNA not Haftar. The HoR may insist all appointments made by the HoR are to be recognized as valid in the LPA but there is a proviso that they not conflict with the terms of the agreement. The GNC and many others will not agree to any government in which Haftar is head of the armed forces yet this is what even those who supposedly support the LPA demand: A number of members of the House of Representatives, including Essa Al-Araibi and HoR spokesman Faraj Buhashim, have said that they will agree to the government leadership proposals from UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon. However, they will not accept the removal of General Khalifa Hafter under any conditions.There seems almost no hope of a successful solution to conflict between the two rival governments at this point. As long as Haftar is not sidelined the GNC will not sign on to the LPA. The HoR probably does not have the power to sideline him. Haftar has recently stopped his own prime minister from leaving Libya twice. It should be evident that Haftar controls the HoR and not vice versa.

CIA-linked Khalifa Haftar's alternative plan for Libya

A recent article in the Middle East Eye describes what the author, Mattio Toaldo, calls Khalifa Haftar's Plan B. The plan would replace that of the UN to create a unity Government of National Accord(GNA) supported by the existing two rival governments.

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The author is a policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London. The plan for the GNA is still ongoing. The UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, who is organizing the dialogue between the rival governments, hoped to announce the names of the main officials of the GNA last night. However, that did not happen as the General National Congress(GNC) government requested more amendments to the final draft of the Libyan Political Agreement(LPA). Leon says there can be no amendments. Neither parliament, including the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) has agreed yet to the final draft even though both sides sent negotiators to the recent meetings in Skhirat Morocco. The HoR earlier rejected the draft since it already contained some amendments to address concerns on the GNC. Leon managed to convince the HoR to send representatives to recent meetings at the UN in New York and now at Skhirat.

The alternative plan by Khalifa Haftar, the CIA-linked commander of the HoR armed forces, would wreck or stall the UN talks while continuing the already existing division of the country but giving him greater control of the HoR. Taldo notes Haftar started the whole conflict back in 2014. Haftar first launched a failed coup in February and then his Operation Dignity, designed to rid Libya of Islamists in May of the same year. Ironically as part of Operation Dignity, the Libyan parliament buildings were burned down while at the time Abdullah al-Thinni was prime minister. He denounced Haftar's action. Now as prime minister of the HoR he appointed Haftar commander of the HoR armed forces, the Libyan National Army.

Recently the HoR unilaterally extended its mandate beyond October 20. This was Leon's deadline for the new Government of National Accord(GNA) to take over as the HoR mandate expires. The UN plan was also to extend the HoR mandate but with the agreement of the GNC and under the terms of the GNA. The HoR claims that their move was necessary to avoid a "power vacuum" should the UN plan fail. According to Toaldo the HoR discussed several options. One would just see the HoR continue to govern without agreeing with the rival GNC or accepting the UN plan. Other options included conferring all powers to a temporary president or declaring a state of emergency with a military council governing the country. This last option is part of Haftar's Plan B with himself as head of the council. Haftar has from the first rejected the UN LPA since under it, the function of commander in chief of the GNA armed forces would be carried out by senior officials of that government. He would be sidelined temporarily and likely permanently as the military leadership would be "reset." The GNC and other opposition groups will never accept Haftar as commander of the national armed forces voluntarily.

Toaldo notes Haftar has all along been attempting to scuttle any deal. The possibility of a power void after October 20 gives him an opportunity to consolidate his power over the HoR government. Haftar had to make it clear to prime minister Al-Thinni who was in charge. Haftar has twice stopped Al Thinni, supposedly his boss, from flying out of Libya, once to a meeting, and the other time for a holiday at Eid. Toaldo claims: Last weekend, the two met at Haftar’s headquarters in the eastern city of al-Marj. The agreement they reached establishes Haftar’s “oversight” over Thinni’s cabinet. From now on, the names of the minister of defence and of the minister of the interior will have to be “agreed” by the two. A peculiar agreement if one thinks that theoretically Libya is due to have a national unity government in less than two weeks.

Even under the continuation of the "fiction" of a civilian government, Haftar would have the advantage of continued recognition. In spite of being threatened with sanctions, Haftar has the support of Egypt, the UAE and the Arab League. He recently signed a military deal with Jordan. Toaldo says Haftar would be disappointed by a joint statement in which the U.S. and many other countries said the UN agreement “will also grant legitimacy to the institutions of the future state of Libya. Any step which jeopardises this agreement is unhelpful.” No doubt Haftar will take such a statement as meaningless rhetoric, just as was the EU naming him as a person to be sanctioned for trying to scuttle the peace process. Haftar no doubt looks at what the international community does, not the rhetoric meant to show how committed to a peaceful political settlement it is.

Toaldo says western reaction to Haftar's plan will be important in determining the future of Libya. He believes the U.S. and EU have little to gain by supporting or not opposing Haftar's plan. He claims it would be a green light for de facto partition of the country. Of course Haftar believes that with support from Arab States and no doubt Russia, he can gain enough military might to defeat the GNC and retake the rest of the country. He is not in favour of division of the country. An Operation Dignity spokesperson has even announced a planned military operationalong the lines of that in Yemen. Toaldo points out that without the GNA the EU would be without a partner for negotiations on EU operations in Libya and its coastal waters to deal with the immigrant issue. However neither of the two rival governments would agree to EU plans since both regard them as a violation of their sovereignty. There is no guarantee that the GNA would agree either. The international community no doubt hopes that in return for a great deal of aid they will be allowed by the GNA to carry out their planned military intervention in Libya to fight the Islamic State and "ensure security".

Toaldo suggests that if there is no agreement by October 20, the U.S. and EU could suspend any recognition for any Libyan government until there is a deal. This would just help out Russia, Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states who would continue to recognize the HoR. The EU and US would lose influence in the HoR. Even if there were agreement on a unity government, there would be no parallel military agreement. This is essential, as Leon admits, for the LPA to be implemented. Haftar vows never to agree to a ceasefire with the GNC forces, considers them terrorists and continues Operation Dignity against them as well as the Islamic State.