Two-day meeting on Libya crisis produces few positive results and no new plans

(November 11) After a two-day meeting of members of the Libyan Political Dialogue that discussed the political process and obstacles to implementing the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) no new suggestions were made to resolve the political crisis.

The GNA together with the UN envoy Martin Kobler have been trying for months to have the House of Representatives pass a vote of confidence in the GNA as required by the LPA. So far, the HoR has rejected the GNA twice, the last time on August 22. The GNA was to present a new slimmed-down cabinet of 8 members. Well over two months later, there is still no sign of members having been chosen. There is no date set or deadline for any vote in the HoR on the issue.

A key reason why the HoR will not accept the GNA and LPA as things are, is that the LPA has a provision that makes the Presidential Council (PC) of the GNA commander in chief. Neither the HoR nor Field Marshal Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army of the HoR government, will accept this and want the section deleted. Haftar wants to remain commander of the armed forces. Kobler has insisted that the LPA can be amended only after it is passed as it is. I thought that the meeting in Malta might result in the amendment of the LPA by the Libyan Dialogue Members who originally signed it. This obviously did not happen. Without such a move it seems difficult to see how the GNA will be able to obtain a vote of confidence from the HoR.

In the statement following the meetings found on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) there is not even a mention of the need for the GNA to obtain a vote of confidence from the HoR. There is no mention either of the PC presenting a new list of cabinet members to the HoR. The statement only calls on the HoR to amend the Constitutional Declaration as required by the LPA. This would incorporate the GNA into the constitution. It seems unlikely that the HoR would do this since they do not recognize the GNA. Until they are willing to vote confidence in the GNA it seems unlikely that they would agree to incorporate it in the constitution.

The statement urged the PC "to improve its performance to address the stifling security, social and economic problems that face Libyan citizens across the country." This is a recommendation that probably met almost universal agreement among members. The group also calls upon all parties not to use violence or weapons to solve conflicts.

The group also commended the progress in fighting and defeating terrorism in Libya without mentioning specific actions such as the offensive against Sirte or naming any person or groups responsible for the progress, Nothing which could be the least bit offensive to anyone is allowed to appear in most of the statement. The group also welcomed local attempts at reconciliation.

The group decided that they would continue to discuss obstacles to peace at a further meeting to take place in mid-December. The Libya Herald in its coverage notes that many of the proposals in the statement are unlikely to be implemented. There is another meeting on the situation in Libya sponsored by the African Union. At the meeting, Idriss Déby Itno, President of Chad, who chaired the meeting said, “there is no military solution” for Libya. So far there is no solution of any kind. Khalifa Haftar has claimed that there is a military solution.

Offensive against Islamic State continues in Sirte Libya

The Albinyan Almarsoos (Solid Structure) forces, loyal to the Government of National Accord, continue to make slow but steady progress against the remaining Islamic State forces encircled in part of the coastal city of Sirte.

Most of the forces are militia from the city of Misrata. Sirte was the home town of Gadaffi and is the last stronghold of the Islamic State in Libya. The battle has been most intense in the neighborhood known as 700. The Solid Structure forces were able to take control of Islamic State barricades. On Tuesday in the 700 area four foreigners and one Libyan fighter from the Islamic State were killed with no losses on the Solid Structure side. Explosive expert have been kept busy dismantling bombs that the IS inevitably leaves behind.

A recent tweet provides the casualties for battles on Wednesday June 29: "#Libya: 4 killed & 37 wounded #BonyanAlMarsous fighters amid clashes in #Sirte on Wednesday June 29, reports state 15 #ISIS fighters killed."

The Solid Structure forces uncovered a factory where the IS had been manufacturing grenades,car bombs, and other explosives in the Arches neighborhood. A Solid Structure fighter said:“This was like a headquarters for Daesh [ISIS] weaponry and they made a lot of devices and booby-traps here, out of scrap metal, We also found a lot of other items, including pieces of scrap metal, that Daesh [ISIS] used in their car bombs, to create shrapnel to make the explosion more lethal and cause the maximum damage and injuries."The extensive use of suicide bombers, and improvised explosive devices has resulted in more than 200 deaths and over 1,000 wounded Solid Structure fighters. The fighters lack basic military equipment such as helmets and bullet proof vests, resulting in many more deaths and injuries than if they were properly equipped.

Abdul Latif Riad, a fighter recovering from in a Misrata hospital said:“We never saw these kind of things when we were fighting in 2011. We found that Daesh has specialist people who know how to prepare mines and IEDs by hand. Either these people come from outside Libya, or they have been trained how to make these devices because, in 2011, we were only dealing with face-to face fighting, not these kind of IEDs.”Daesh refers to the Islamic State.

The Solid Structure forces have been aided by air strikes. Apparently a small group of special forces from the US and the UK are helping out by providing intelligence and locating targets for the air strikes and also for artillery on the ground. Yesterday there were at least five air raids allowing Solid Structure forces to gain ground. General Mohamed Ghasri, spokesperson for the forces, claimed there are still thousands of civilians trapped in the area occupied by the IS. He said: “They’ve made civilians into human shield(s), keeping them from leaving the city and using their houses as bases,”

The New York Times has a reporter right at the front in Sirte. He provides an interesting and detailed report right from the scene. The report also has an interesting interview with one of the commanders, who claims that it is Haftar, not the Islamic State, who is the biggest danger in Libya. The account also confirms other reports that UK and U.S. special forces are helping out with the offensive by providing intelligence.