Kurdish flag flown over government buildings in Iraq city of Kirkuk

The province of Kirkuk in Iraq has just voted for a referendum to determine if the region will join the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) or remain part of the Baghdad government.

The vote was held by members of the Kirkuk provincial council on April 4. The move is seen as likely to increase tensions between the KRG and many in the region. The referendum decision comes just a week after the council voted in favor of flying the Kurdish flag on municipal buildings in the city of Kirkuk. The Turkmen minority in the city protested the flag-raising. Arab members of the provincial council boycotted the vote on the referendum. Najmaldin Karim, Kirkuk's governor, said: "If there is a referendum for Kurdistan, that should include Kirkuk as well. We have a lot of grievances with Baghdad. It’s a strong, centralized and inefficient, incompetent administration. Baghdad is very controlling, and the constitution says Iraq should be federal." Kurds have long claimed Kirkuk and the huge oil reserves in the area and after the Iraqi army retreated, Kurdish peshmerga ended up in control of the area.

There is supposed to be a referendum on the status of Kirkuk. Karim believes such a vote should be included on any referendum vote on independence for Kurdistan. As of now, the KRG is autonomous within the Iraqi government based in Baghdad. Many observers in Baghdad see the referendum vote and the flag flying as unilateral moves designed to annex Kirkuk with its oil wealth to the KRG. On Saturday, the Iraqi parliament voted to repeal the decision to fly the KRG flag over municipal buildings in Kirkuk.

Recep Erdogan, Turkish President, warned the council that raising the KRG over government buildings could lead to strained relations with Turkey. Erdogan wants to be seen as a protector of the Turkmen minority in the area. He may also be concerned about the Kurds gaining any more territory in the area. Iran also complained about the Kurdish action calling it unconstitutional. Iran also has areas dominated by Kurds.

The Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi asked that the Kurdish flags be taken down and to work on Iraqi unity. The acting head of the council claims that they have the constitutional right to fly the flag because the federal government has not yet followed through with Article 140 of the Iraq constitution that would have a referendum settle disputed areas such as Kirkuk.

Al-Abadi told a Kurdish website: "As you know, for a time now there has been talk that Iraq will split into three regions of Kurds, Shias and Sunnis. But that is totally objectionable. We are serious about Iraq’s territorial integrity."

Turkish President Erdogan said: "We don't agree with the claim 'Kirkuk is for the Kurds' at all. Kirkuk is for the Turkmen, Arabs and Kurds, if they are there. Do not enter into a claim it's yours or the price will be heavy. You will harm dialogue with Turkey. Bring that flag down immediately, "

US denies involvement in air attack that killed at least 15 civilians near Kirkuk Iraq

An apparent airstrike thought to be by the US-led coalition in Iraq is reported to have hit a Shi'ite mosque in the town of Daquq just on the outskirts of Kirkuk. At least 15 civilians were killed as a funeral procession was hit. Scores were wounded.

The Pentagon issued a statement on Sunday denying any involvement in the Friday attack. The statement said they had determined definitively that they were not involved in any airstrikes against Daquq that resulted in civilian casualties. An article in antiwar.com finds the exact wording significant since the statement does not deny either launching an attack on Daquq or even attacking a mosque there. Colonel John Dorrian made the statement on social media.

There are not believed to be any Islamic State fighters near the town. Locals insist that the attack was carried out by an airplane but they weren't able to identify to whom it belonged. One report claims that the victims were all women: "Fifteen women were killed and another 50 wounded in a raid that targeted a Shiite place of worship at Dakuk," local council chief Amir Huda Karam told AFP.

Not surprisingly, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement accusing the U.S.-led coalition of launching the strikes. Echoing the accusations of the U.S. and others about Russian and Assad bombing in Aleppo, the Ministry described U.S.-led airstrikes on residential areas as "war crimes". Major General Igor Konashenkov claimed:"On October 21, Russian reconnaissance means detected airstrikes of two warplanes on Daquq town located near Kirkuk where no Daesh militants are present, according to our data. According to witnesses' reports, a mourning procession has been mistakenly identified by the coalition's aviation as a group of militants. Dozens of Iraqi civilians, including women and children died."Daesh is an Arabic term for the Islamic State. Konashenkov claimed that the coalition often made errors in targeting.

The only other planes that would likely be in the area are from the Iraqi air force or army. Neither had made any comment as yet, but Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi said an investigation into the incident had been ordered and the results would be announced as soon as it was concluded. Although Turkish planes have also conducted airstrikes in Iraq they have been in areas far from Daquq.

Kurds claim Sinjar as part of Kurdistan after capturing it from Islamic State

Kurdish forces with U.S.-backed air strikes have driven Islamic State fighters out of the city of Sinjar, home to the Yazidi minority group. However, the victory also exacerbates tensions between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central Iraqi government

+ Add Image

The Iraqi government was already wary of the U.S. intervention in Iraq as it did not happen until the Kurdish capital of Erbil was threatened and the Islamic State was committing atrocities against the Yazidi minority, even though IS was capturing more and more other areas in Iraq. Back in June of 2014 as well the Kurds had taken advantage of the IS state offensive to seize the city of Kirkuk and the oil rich area surrounding it to keep it from falling into the hands of the Islamic State. They have made it clear they intended to keep the city as part of Iraqi Kurdistan.

During the capture of Sinjar, Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Worker's Party or PKK were active, a group listed as a terrorist organization both by Turkey and the U.S. However, they have played a key role in battling the Islamic State both in Syria and in Iraq. After the capture Iraqi Kurdistan president, Massoud Barzani at a press conference referred to the city as part of Kurdistan and made it clear the city would be incorporated into the Kurdish area. Before being recaptured, Sinjar was nominally under the control of the central government in Baghdad. Barzani did not even mention the role of the rival PKK in retaking the city. US Special Forces were also involved in the Sinjar operation.

This continued support for the Kurds by the United States is alienating the Baghdad government from the US and encouraging it to forge closer links both with Iran but also Russia. Over the objection of US officials, Iraq established a joint intelligence command center in Baghdad with the Iranian and Syrian governments. Just last Friday, a delegation of Iraqi legislators visited Moscow to talk about more Russian involvement in Iraq.

Ayhem Kamel, director for the Middle East and North Africa of the Eurasia group said:“The Sinjar operation will remind the key decision makers in Baghdad that the U.S. has a broader sense of strategic cooperation with the Kurds than with Baghdad.The quick gains here against ISIS, are going to undermine the broader picture of the unity of Iraq.”Relations have become so tense between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central government that in the disputed city of Tuz Khurmoto near Kirkuk, Shiite militias loyal to Baghdad have been fighting with Kurdish peshmerga forces, with several people killed. Longstanding disputes about how to divide oil revenues have not been settled. Both governments are dependent upon oil revenues to fund their activities.

Ranj Alaaldin an expert on Kurdish affairs claimed:“I think Sinjar adds momentum not just to the U.S. campaign against ISIS, but also U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, which builds on U.S. support for Kurdish forces in Syria. That will no doubt alarm Baghdad, Turkey, as well as the Iranians and Russians, both of which are competing with the U.S. to bring the Kurds within their orbit of influence.”

The US is further stressing relations with Baghdad by attempts to directly arm the Kurds counter to an agreement that the arms will go through Baghdad. Recently, a Canadian transport plane was held by Iraqi authorities for several days at Baghdad airport. Spokesperson for the Canadian Department of National Defense, Dominique Tessier, said that the plane was held due to an issue with the customs documentation of its cargo. Hakien al-Zameli, head of the Iraqi parliament security and defence commission, put it a bit differently: “The inspection committee in Baghdad International Airport has found a huge number of rifles equipped with silencers, as well as light and mid-sized weapons.The US ambassador to Baghdad has tried to send the weapons to the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and the government should investigate this and arrest the perpetrators,”The plane eventually returned to Kuwait.

Sectarian conflict and Kurdish demands stymie formation of new Iraqi government

After a long struggle, the Iraqi parliament was able to choose a new speaker, a Sunni, and a new president, a Kurd, and finally after much friction a new prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, a Shia.

In a statement on Saturday, Salim al-Jabouri, speaker of the Iraqi parliament, denounced as "terrorists" the Shia armed group suspected of killing at least 73 people inside a Sunni mosque . After rejecting al-Abadi's nomination at first, the present prime minister Nouri al-Maliki finally gave in to pressure both internal and external to give up his bid for another term. He was promised a role of some sort in any new government. However, al-Abadi was left with the difficult task of forming a new government from groups that are at loggerheads with one another. 

Now a mass killing at a mosque in which at least 73 people were killed has derailed the process of forming a government entirely. In protest at the attack Sunni politicians suspended talks designed to form a new government. Salim al-Jabouri, the speaker and leading Sunni politician denounced the Shia group believed responsible for the attacks as terrorists. He said: "There are those who want to thwart the political process. They are targeting the Iraqi society and its social structures." Both Jabouri ajnd Deputy Prime MInister Saleh al-Mutlak are demanding that present prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Shia political allies hand over those responsible for the attack within two days and also compensate families of victims. 

The new prime minister al-Abadi who will take over from al-Maliki once he forms a government also spoke out against the attack:"I strongly condemn the killing of civilians and worshippers in Diyala province and I call on the citizens to reject these attempts by the enemies of Iraq to exploit the incident in order to stir up strife between the sons of the same homeland." Local sources say the attack by the Shia militia may have been in response to a roadside bomb attack that targeted a recruitment campaign of the same militia. 

An Al Jazeera correspondent remarked: "Everyone has been terrified that this could be the incident that could spark another civil war. What we have seen in the past here is that Shia militias and Sunni fighters come in where there is a security vacuum, and that is certainly what we are seeing in Iraq." This event is just one of a number of incidents that show the rising sectarian violence that will make formation of any new government difficult. Back in July Shia militia executed 15 Sunni Muslims and hung them on poles in a public square in the town of Baquba according to police. According to Human Rights Watch(HRW) during the month of July alone Iraqi security forces executed more that 255 prisoners during July in retaliation for atrocities committed by the Islamic State rebels. 

In many areas Sunnis cooperate with the IS. Events such as these will no doubt lead to more alliances with IS in Sunni areas. The Shia and western countries as well as Iran all see IS as simply a terrorist organization to be destroyed. However, many Sunni's will fight against IS only if the Iraq government changes its treatment of the Sunnis. Ahmed al-Dulaimi, the governor of Anbar province that is mostly controlled by IS said: “The only way to fight ISIS is to support the citizens who lost their dignity and their rights under the old government".  

 Not everyone agrees that the attack was carried out by Shia militia members. Some Shia leaders including the cleric and politician Moktad al_Sadr claimed that the attack was an attempt by IS to create an escalation in sectarian violence and said it had the "explicit touch of ISIS". If al-Sadr is correct, the attack worked as intended by IS.

 Even if the Sunni and Shia politicians are able to overcome their differences, the Kurds also may create difficulties that could block formation of a government. The Kurds have occupied new territory since the offensive by IS.They now control the city of Kirkuk and area and have no intention of giving control back to the central government. There are certain demands that the Kurds have that they demand be addressed before they even discuss what their role in a new government will be:

 The negotiators are making several demands of the new government, including implementing Article 140, sending the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) its share of Iraq’s oil revenue, arming the Peshmerga forces and settling disputes over oil in the Kurdistan Region, said Najib Balatayi, one of the Kurdish delegates in Baghdad.  

Another Kurdish negotiator, Zana Rustay said: “We showed that we aren’t in a hurry to form the new government; we are more in a hurry to have our conditions met".

Iraq election law delays decision on Kirkuk

Note that the new law also includes voting for individuals rather than having closed lists. According to Juan Cole the referendum on SOFA will also be held at the same time. The mainstream press nevers talks about this. Don't be surprised is some time between now and the elections this referendum will be postponed once again. According to the SOFA agreement it was to be held last August!

Iraq election law delays decision on flash points

Iraq election law sidesteps controversy over disputed city of Kirkuk

RYAN LUCAS
AP News

After weeks of hard-nosed negotiations, analysts say the election law passed by Iraq's parliament allowing national polls to go forward in January extends compromises to all sides but with key concessions to the Kurds.

However, analysts warn the bill also sidesteps a decision on the ultimate fate of Kirkuk — a city claimed by both Kurds and Arabs that had been a major stumbling block to the law's passage — and ensures more battles over the city in the future.

"Because there was pressure to pass the law and have the election, they are just pushing this issue under the carpet," said Mustafa Alani from the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "I don't see a clear solution to this problem here."

Haggling over Kirkuk had repeatedly stalled the law's passage, and further delay threatened to undermine Iraq's fledgling democracy and derail a U.S. plan to withdraw its troops.

Kurds consider Kirkuk a Kurdish city and want it incorporated into their self-ruled region in northern Iraq, something the Arab-led central government adamantly opposes.

Under former dictator Saddam Hussein, tens of thousands of Kurds were kicked out of the city to make Kirkuk predominantly Arab. Since Saddam's fall, thousands of Kurds have flooded back, but Arabs claim there are more than ever before.

The legislation passed Sunday allows the vote in Kirkuk to be held just like in other regions around the country. However, if lawmakers suspect there was a more than 5 percent annual increase in population in a disputed area, including Kirkuk, they can vote to create a committee to investigate and eventually contest the election results in a given district.

This solution addresses Arab and Turkomen claims that Kurds have packed the city in an attempt to tip the scales.

But analysts say the Kurds also notched a victory by having the elections carried out on the basis of 2009 voter lists, which likely reflect Kurdish increases in the city, instead of the 2004 records that Arabs have generally favored.

"I think probably the Kurds won out on this one," said Marina Ottoway of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for Peace. "I think it will be very difficult to invalidate the election."

The law specifies the way the Kirkuk issue was settled will not be binding for future decisions on the disputed city. However, the legislation appears to set the stage for further disputes over interpretation and implementation of the law.

On Monday, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission submitted a proposal to Iraq's presidency council to hold the elections on Jan. 21, five days after the previously scheduled date, commission chief Faraj al-Haidari said. It must now be approved by the presidential council.

The commission also determined there should be 323 seats in the next parliament, up from 275, Al-Haidari said.

U.S. officials had followed the election debate closely for any sign it might affect the withdrawal of American combat troops, which Washington has tied to the vote. After the vote, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq said the drawdown was on schedule.

Under President Barack Obama's plan, all combat troops will leave the country by the end of August 2010. The remaining 50,000 trainers and support troops would leave by the end of 2011.

With violence down sharply nationwide, Washington now hopes the January vote will help bolster Iraq's fragile democracy. While many Iraqis are happy with the improved security situation, frustrations remain over the lingering violence, corruption and poor public services.

The U.S. pushed hard Sunday for lawmakers to reach a compromise on the legislation. And while the deal may not be perfect for everyone, all of Iraq's major political groupings appear at least satisfied with it and have said they will take part in the elections.

That stands in stark contrast to Iraq's first post-invasion parliamentary vote in January 2005, when Sunnis boycotted the polls, which helped fuel anger and a spiraling insurgency and bloodshed that engulfed the country for two years.

"They all seem to be happy — in that sense it does seem to be a true compromise," said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group.

___

Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq

This is from the NYtimes.
This shows that conflict in Iraq may be shifting to different locations including Kirkuk. If the Kurds don't act soon against the PKK they will face a Turkish incursion against PKK bases in northern Iraq.

Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq


By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and QAIS MIZHER
Published: October 20, 2007
BAGHDAD, Oct. 19 — In the latest bout of violence around the northern oil city of Kirkuk, insurgents blew up an oil pipeline, battled a convoy carrying bodyguards of a deputy prime minister and ambushed a police chief, Iraqi officials said on Friday.

Meanwhile, a top Kurdish leader issued a statement vowing to “defend” Iraqi Kurdistan from potential attacks by the Turkish Army.

The violence on Friday underscored the continued instability of the area surrounding Kirkuk, where some Sunni insurgents fled earlier this year from strongholds in Baghdad and Baquba after increased American troop deployments in central Iraq.

The deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, a Kurd, was not in the convoy, according to an Iraqi security official in Kirkuk. But the ambush and fighting, which took place 60 miles south of Kirkuk, left one member of the convoy dead and another wounded, according to an official from Mr. Salih’s office.

Farther north, one of Kurdistan’s two most powerful leaders warned Turkey that Kurds would defend themselves against an invasion. The statement, by Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, reiterated in stronger terms previous admonitions by Kurdish leaders that Turkish forces should not cross into Iraqi Kurdistan to drive out Kurdish guerrillas who use mountain bases as safe havens after attacks inside Turkey.

A spokesman for the Kurdish Regional Government quoted a statement by Mr. Barzani as saying, “If the Turkish Army attacks Kurdistan, we are ready to defend the Kurdistan Regional Government and protect the democracy that Kurdish people live under.”

While American officials continue to highlight recent gains against Sunni extremists in western and central Iraq, there are concerns that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and other homegrown jihadist groups may be in a position to gain power around Kirkuk by exploiting the city’s tense social and political situation. In one example of that influence, the police near Kirkuk recently discovered a couple carrying a marriage license issued by the Islamic State of Iraq, a militant group linked with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

The Kurds are intent on consolidating their control of Kirkuk, and many Sunni Arabs resettled there by Saddam Hussein now feel threatened, spawning fears that they will collaborate with extremists.

That is what happened in Baquba last year after government leaders in Baghdad appointed highly sectarian Shiites to command security forces in Diyala Province, a move that emboldened Sunni guerrillas to take control of the city.

In another attack 30 miles west of Kirkuk, gunmen ambushed the convoy carrying the Iraqi police commander of the town of Riyadh, Capt. Abdullah Jabouri, according to the police in nearby Hawija. Captain Jabouri escaped, the police said, but two guards were seriously wounded.

The pipeline was attacked near the village of Safra, about 40 miles west of Kirkuk. Initial reports suggested that insurgents used an improvised explosive device, said Col. Sadr Adeen Abdullah of the Iraqi Army. The explosion sent plumes of thick black smoke drifting all the way to Kirkuk, he said.

The United States military command in Baghdad reported the deaths of two American soldiers. One soldier died from a “noncombat-related illness” Wednesday after being flown to a military hospital in Germany. Another soldier was killed Thursday by an insurgent attack in southern Baghdad.

Also Friday, one of Iraq’s most influential Sunni politicians, Adnan al-Dulaimi, became the latest Iraqi leader to demand that the former defense minister, Sultan Hashem Ahmed, be given a stay of execution. Mr. Ahmed was convicted of war crimes and genocide for his role in Mr. Hussein’s 1988 attacks on the Kurds. But many Iraqi officials believe that he was an honorable military officer.

Mr. Ahmed and Ali Hassan al-Majid, better known as Chemical Ali, are to be hanged once the American military turns them over to Iraqi officials. American officials say they are waiting for Iraq to resolve an internal legal dispute about the two men. Late Friday, an American spokesman said both men were in American custody “with no scheduled date for transfer.”

Kurdish leader threatens civil war over Kirkuk

If the US or the Iraqi govt. double crosses the Kurds then the Iraqi government could easily fall and perhaps civil war ensue as Barzani threatens. Most commentators are simply ignoring the situation for the moment.

Iraq: Kurdish leader threatens civil war over Kirkuk
By James Cogan
7 August 2007
Back to screen version | Send this link by email | Email the author

The president of the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), Massoud Barzani, last Tuesday threatened “a real civil war” in Iraq if a referendum to incorporate the oil-rich city of Kirkuk into Kurdish territory continues to be delayed by the other Iraqi political factions.

Clause 140 of the 2005 US-vetted Iraqi constitution states that a referendum in Kirkuk and other Kurdish “disputed territories” must take place by December 31, 2007 to determine whether the populace wants to join the KRG. The inclusion of the clause was one of the main pay-offs by the Bush administration for the assistance of the Kurdish parties. Since the 2003 invasion, they have been the most loyal allies of the US occupation. Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani have been crucial participants in all the puppet governments in Baghdad, generally endorsing every action by the White House and the US military.

Kurdish authorities and security forces in Kirkuk province have been working to ensure that the disputed territories have a clear majority of Kurdish voters before the referendum. Tens of thousands of Kurds who were driven out of Kirkuk in the 1980s by Saddam Hussein’s regime have been re-settled in the city. Thousands of Arabs have been evicted over the past four years. This reverse ethnic cleansing is called “normalisation” in the constitution. While some Arabs have taken financial assistance and left voluntarily, others allege that Kurdish militias have used actual or threatened violence. Turkish-speaking Turkomans, who have been a major presence in Kirkuk for centuries, also claim they are being terrorised into leaving.

Gaining control of Kirkuk would provide the economic foundations for the long-term perspective of Kurdish nationalists—a separate Kurdish state. The KRG currently consists of Iraq’s three northern majority Kurdish provinces of Sulaymaniyah, Irbil and Dahuk. The adjoining areas that would be added under Clause 140 include the Kurdish populated districts of Ninewa and Diyala provinces and much of Kirkuk province, which contain Iraq’s oldest oil fields and as much as 40 percent of the country’s total untapped oil reserves. The Kurdish region would be transformed into one of the world’s top 10 oil producers overnight.

Just four months before the referendum deadline, however, the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has done next to nothing to prepare for a vote. In particular, it failed to complete a census in the disputed territories by July 31, as had been previously agreed with the KRG.

The stalling reflects the extent of opposition. Arab and Turkoman leaders in Kirkuk have warned they will take up arms to stop a Kurdish-controlled referendum, the outcome of which is predetermined and would overnight convert members of their communities into second class citizens in a de-facto separate state. Sunni and Shiite Arab parties in Baghdad oppose losing lucrative oil revenues and have demanded that Clause 140 be repudiated. In Ankara, some Turkish politicians, who fear an energy-rich KRG would intensify separatist calls among Turkey’s 15 million-strong Kurdish minority, have called for an invasion of northern Iraq to stop a KRG annexation of Kirkuk.

The Bush administration publicly stands by the Iraqi constitution. Leading figures within the US political establishment, however, have expressed concerns over the Kurdish claims on Kirkuk. There are fears of sharp tensions with Turkey—a key NATO ally—as well as deepening instability in Iraq. The Iraq Study Group report prepared last year by Republican James Baker and Democrat Lee Hamilton described Kirkuk as a “powder keg” and called for the referendum to be delayed indefinitely.

Barzani’s threat of civil war testifies to the frustration among the Kurdish elite over the possibility that their ambitions might be thwarted. He told the US-based Arabic television station Al-Hurra:

“There is procrastination and if this issue is not resolved, as I said before, all options are open. Frankly I am not comfortable with the behaviour and the policy of the federal [Iraqi] government on Kirkuk and Clause 140 ... The Kurds will never relinquish or bargain over Kirkuk, but we have accepted to regain Kirkuk through constitutional and legal methods. But if we despair of those constitutional and legal methods, then we will have the right to resort to other means. If Clause 140 is not implemented, then there will be a real civil war.”

Barzani’s rhetoric contains a significant degree of brinkmanship, aimed at pressuring the Iraqi government and the US into facilitating the referendum as soon as possible. Maliki is flying to Turkey today for talks with re-elected Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the KRG’s ambitions in Kirkuk as well as the presence in Iraq’s north of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels who have fought a 23-year civil war with the Turkish state.

As many as 200,000 Turkish troops are massed on the Iraqi border and the Turkish military is demanding parliamentary approval to cross over and destroy PKK hideouts. The top Turkish commander, General Yasar Buyukanit, stated on May 31 that the only question he needed to be answered was whether “something will happen with Barzani as well” if his forces invaded Iraq.

According to an article in yesterday’s Washington Post, Kurdish politicians have “urged Maliki to tell the Turkish leader to stay out of Iraq’s affairs”. If Maliki does not, it could end his government. The main Sunni faction and the large Shiite faction loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have walked out of the cabinet. Baghdad is swirling with rumours of new coalitions being formed and an imminent vote to elect a new prime minister. If the Kurdish legislators in the Iraqi parliament switched to supporting another candidate, their votes could bring Maliki down.

Omer Taspinar, from the Brookings Institute, told the Post he believed the Kurds wanted to trade their agreement to crack down on the PKK “as a quid pro quo for Kirkuk”. In other words, if Turkey agrees to the city and its oil coming under Kurdish jurisdiction, the KRG would allow a Turkish military intervention or deploy its own forces to dislodge the PKK from the border region. Such a deal would also serve to mollify US fears of regional chaos.

If Kurdish political maneuvering fails, however, the KRG has a considerable military force to turn Barzani’s talk of civil war into reality. Kurds who were recruited out of the peshmerga militias of the KDP and PUK make up a large percentage of the new Iraqi army units operating in northern Iraq. One estimate is that the KRG could mobilise 175,000 fighters, equipped with tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery.

Arab and Turkoman organisations fear that deployments are already underway for the armed seizure of the city. Following suicide bombings in Kirkuk on July 16 that killed 85 people, there are unconfirmed reports that as many as 12,000 additional Kurdish troops have begun moving into areas surrounding the city, ostensibly to provide security. According to the Voices of Iraq news agency, some 6,000 peshmerga have been dispatched to “protect oil pipelines”, while another 6,000 are being sent to “protect power lines”.

Given the carnage in Iraq over the past four-and-a-half years, Barzani’s choice of the word “real” to describe the character of a civil war over Kirkuk cannot be passed over lightly.

The Kurdish leader’s remark suggests that he believes ethnic conflict in northern Iraq would result in even greater death, destruction and displacement than the sectarian violence raging in Iraq’s central provinces. Fighting between Shiite militias linked to Maliki’s pro-US government and Sunni Muslim extremists opposed to its existence has killed tens of thousands of people from both sects and forced well over one million to flee their homes. An exodus of Arabs, Turkoman and other minorities from Kurdish-populated areas—including Iraq’s third-largest city of Mosul which the KRG has only reluctantly not laid claim to yet—could produce well over two million refugees.

The Bush administration has sought to avoid a conflict in northern Iraq that would inevitably provoke a political crisis in Baghdad, destabilise the only relatively stable areas of the country and potentially draw in Iraq’s neighbours—Syria and Iran, as well as Turkey. Yet, just as the US invasion is responsible for fuelling sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions, so it has unleashed communal forces in Iraq’s north over which Washington has no control.






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Copyright 1998-2007
World Socialist Web Site

Kirkuk Status May Hold up Oil Law

There is now talk of the oil law being passed within a month but with issues such as these and others it seems unlikely. The bill is still not even before parliament as far as I understand it. No doubt the members want to vacation soon as well!

IRAQ'S OIL WAR
Kirkuk Status May Hold Up Oil Law
Qubad Talabani Presses Need to Settle Fate of Disputed City
By CHRISTINA DAVIDSON Posted 20 hr. 33 min. ago
Chip Somodevilla/Getty
WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 25: Qubad Talabani, son of Iraq President Jalal Talabani, September 25, 2006 in Washington, DC.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, speaking in Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday, noted that the May 31 deadline for Iraq's passage of the hydrocarbons law had not been met, also stating, "We would certainly be happier if there were faster progress on the political front."

Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad told The Associated Press in a telephone interview this week, "We hope the ratification of this law will be achieved no more than one month from now. This law is considered a major national project and achievement."

But the Kurdish Regional Government's representative in Washington, Qubad Talabani, indicates that the thorny problem of the Kirkuk referendum requires resolution before the hydrocarbon law could hope to receive support from Kurdish politicians.

As Laura Rozen writes in a new profile of Qubud Talabani, the 29-year-old son of Iraqi president Jalal, in the Washington Monthly:


"Although he does not openly suggest a quid pro quo, he hints that if the referendum is delayed, the Kurds may not be inclined to support a law ensuring central government control and revenue sharing of Iraq’s oil wealth, which Washington considers critical to Iraq’s political reconciliation. At least some Iraq watchers believe that Talabani may yet get his way. 'The U.S. has found it very hard to go against stuff in the constitution,' said Patrick Clawson, a Middle East expert and deputy director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 'I am not as convinced that this can be easily postponed.'"

The referendum on Kirkuk is supposed to take place by the end of the year. Given the current US domestic political environment, it's unlikely the Democratic Congress would stomach such a lengthy delay on passage of the hydrocarbons law without re-doubling efforts to withdraw American troops.