Raqqa may become part of the Kurdish autonomous area of Syria when liberated

The northern city of Raqqa now occupied by the Islamic State (IS) is expected to become part of a decentralized Kurdish-run system of government, once it is liberated, according to a leading Kurdish politician.

Raqqa, on the Euphrates is the Islamic State's main urban base left in Syria but is under siege by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) an alliance of Kurds with some Arabs. The YPG a Syrian Kurdish militia already controls considerable territory in northern Syria and Kurdish groups are working to establish a form of decentralized government in Kurdish-controlled areas. Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist group and the development is causing alarm in Turkey. Turkey is angry that the US is supporting the Kurds. They consider the YPG simply an extension of Kurdish groups they are fighting within Turkey..

Saleh Muslim co-chair of the Syrian Kurdish PYD party said although it would be up to the people of Raqqa what the future of the city should be once it is liberated from the IS, he thought the city would join the "democratic federal' system. Muslim said in a telephone interview:"We expect (this) because our project is for all Syria ... and Raqqa can be part of it. Our only concern is that the people of Raqqa are the ones who take the decision on everything." The Kurdish system was never negotiated with the Assad regime. The US is backing Kurdish forces in the area. Turkey objects to having a de facto Kurdish government in northern Syria and will be even angrier if the US helps the Kurds extend the territory under their control. The Turks have already invaded part of northern Syria west of the Euphrates clearing the Islamic State from the border area. They insist that Kurds should stay east of the Euphrates.

The Kurds may have trouble convincing locals that they should join the Kurdish federated system: " But while the YPG had an alliance with some local Raqqa resistance forces aimed at expelling ISIS at the start of the military offensive, many of those opposition factions have cut ties with the Kurds, complaining that the YPG is trying to dictate terms to them. That might hurt their attempt at selling Raqqa on joining the autonomous region, though they may not be given a choice at any rate. " Meanwhile fighting has resumed at the Tabqa dam about 25 miles upstream even though the IS has put out dire warnings that the dam is in danger of collapse. US forces dismiss the warnings. It is always possible that the IS could decide to sabotage the dam.

Bomb targets US consular building in Erbil Iraqi Kurdistan

A car bomb was detonated at the entrance to the U.S. consular building in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, killing at least three people and injuring eight others, although another report said 14 were wounded.

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Nihad Qoja, the mayor of Erbil, said: "A car bomb exploded outside the entrance to the US consulate, It seems the consulate was the target." The State Department said no US personnel were killed in the blast that it said was caused by a "vehicle-borne improvised explosive device" that went off right outside the entrance to the heavily guarded compound:Brett McGurk, the deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran, said in a post on Twitter that all consulate personnel had been accounted for and that there were no reports of injuries among them. He included the hashtag #VBIED, short for vehicle-born improvised explosive device.A tweet from an IS account claimed that fighters "were able to detonate a car bomb on the building of the American which led to killing and wounding many of them." US officials said that they had no reason to doubt the IS claim of responsibility for the attack.

A Reuters witness who heard the blast said that it was followed by gunfire and black smoke rising above the district where the consulate is located. It is a predominantly Christian neighbourhood containing many restaurants frequented by foreigners. Attacks in Erbil have been relatively rare. Erbil is an important base for US operatives in Iraq who have been supporting Kurdish operations against IS in the area.The city is considered so safe that the US has moved some of its diplomats there from Baghdad where there are many bombings. On Friday there were at least 479 killed and 72 injured in attacks in Baghdad and across Iraq with at least 31 dead in Baghdad.

Iraq: Troops withdraw but U.S. drones remain

   Although U.S. troops are withdrawing from Iraq as required by the SOFA agreement with Iraq many Americans will remain. About 10,000 Americans will remain to staff the humongous U.S. embassy in Iraq as well as other consular offices. Included will be many security contractors to ensure the safety of personnel. Private contractors will also be involved in training Iraqi forces. However there will be another U.S. presence as well.
    Unarmed U.S. spy drones will be allowed to patrol in norther Iraq. These Predator drones will operate out of a Turkish air base in Turkey. The planes will be used to spy on rebels of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) who use camps in northern Iraq to launch attacks into Turkey. The information provided by the drones has been used by Turkey to launch air strikes. Turkey has on occasion even sent troops into the area causing Iraq to complain.
     This type of military assistance has helped improve relations between Turkey and the U.S. That the Iraqi government has agreed to allow the drones to continue their surveillance is rather surprising since the Iraqi government has protested against Turkish incursions and air attacks on Iraq. Perhaps the central government is less concerned about these incursions than the regional Kurd government in northern Iraq. For more see this article

Strip of Iraq on verge of exploding...

It is clear that the Kurds are claiming (or reclaiming) parts of Iraq that have long been part of the central government area. They even fly their own flag rather than the Iraq flag! There are a number of disputed areas in which the conflict between Kurds and the central government has not yet been resolved.

This is from the Washington Post.

Strip of Iraq 'on the Verge of Exploding'Kurds Extend Role Beyond Autonomous Borders, Angering Arabs
By Amit R. PaleyWashington Post Foreign ServiceSaturday, September 13, 2008; A01
JALAWLA, Iraq -- Kurdish leaders have expanded their authority over a roughly 300-mile-long swath of territory beyond the borders of their autonomous region in northern Iraq, stationing thousands of soldiers in ethnically mixed areas in what Iraqi Arabs see as an encroachment on their homelands.
The assertion of greater Kurdish control, which has taken hold gradually since the war began and caused tens of thousands of Arabs to flee their homes, is viewed by Iraqi Arab and U.S. officials as a provocative and potentially destabilizing action.
"Quickly moving into those areas to try and change the population and flying KRG flags in areas that are specifically not under the KRG control right now -- that is counterproductive and increases tensions," said Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, referring to the Kurdistan Regional Government, which administers the autonomous region.
The long-cherished dream of many of the world's 25 million ethnic Kurds is an independent state that encompasses parts of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. All but Iraq adamantly oppose Kurdish autonomy, much less a Kurdish state. Iraqi Kurds continue to insist they are not seeking independence, even as they unilaterally expand the territory they control in Iraq.
The predominantly Arab-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in recent weeks has sent the Iraqi army to drive Kurdish forces out of some of the lands, ordering Kurdish troops, known as pesh merga, to retreat north of the boundary of the Kurdish autonomous region.
The face-off between the Iraqi army and pesh merga has stoked fears of Arab-Kurdish strife just as Iraqis begin to recover from years of sectarian violence between Shiites and Sunnis.
A week-long journey across four provinces that abut the southern boundary of the autonomous region illustrated just how pervasive the Kurdish presence has become. Pesh merga fighters were seen manning 34 checkpoints, most of them proudly flying the Kurdish flag, some as far as 75 miles south of the regional border. Kurds say they have historical claims to the territory, citing then-President Saddam Hussein's use of violence and coercion to drive Kurds from their lands in the 1970s.
Although officials in Washington and Baghdad have focused on the Arab-Kurd conflict in Kirkuk, the ethnically mixed, oil-rich city where more than 100 people have been killed in political violence this year, the animosities between the two ethnic groups fester throughout Nineveh, Tamim, Salahuddin and Diyala provinces. Arabs and Kurds in various areas often have unique grievances, confounding efforts to reach an all-encompassing solution.
Kurdish leaders have maintained warm relations with U.S. officials, who have seen the Kurds as allies in the effort to promote democracy and stability in Iraq. The Kurdish region, compared with other parts of the country, is a zone of relative peace and prosperity.
In Jalawla, a majority-Arab town in Diyala province eight miles south of the Kurdish regional boundary, Kurdish authorities have gradually expanded their role over the past year. The pesh merga, the Kurdish police and the Asayesh, the Kurdish intelligence agency, all patrol the region. The Kurdish government provides a larger share of the area's annual budget -- $15 million -- than Iraq's government does, according to the town's Kurdish mayor, who lives north of the Kurdish regional boundary because it is safer.
"Who could argue that we have not already made this area part of the Kurdish regional government?" asked Nihad Ali, acting commander of a 150-person Kurdish detachment now based in Jalawla, at a headquarters that flies the Kurdish flag next door to the fledgling local Arab police force. "Who spent all the money here? Whose martyrs spilled their blood here? These people are totally reliant on the Kurds. We cannot abandon them."
But Arab residents of this town of 70,000 began to chafe over what they described as a campaign to drive them out of their lands. Ahmed Saleh Hennawi al-Nuaimi, an Arab tribal leader in Jalawla and a former army officer under President Saddam Hussein, said the Kurds had imprisoned, kidnapped and killed more than 40 Arabs recently in an attempt to promote "Kurdification," accusations that Kurdish officials reject.
"We are now subject to two occupations -- one by the Americans and one by the Kurds," said Nuaimi, who claimed the area is 85 to 90 percent Arab, although Kurds estimate the figure is closer to 50 or 60 percent. "The Kurdish one is much worse by far and is driving the people to become terrorists. This area is now on the verge of exploding."
With prodding from angry Arabs such as Nuaimi, the Iraqi army last month ordered the pesh merga's 34th Brigade to withdraw within 24 hours from Jalawla and the surrounding area.
The Kurds initially refused. Kurdish officials said they killed only insurgents and were in the area to protect civilians, not occupy territory. But after high-level political negotiations, the 4,000-member brigade pulled back to the mainly Kurdish city of Khanaqin, about 16 miles south of the Kurdish border. Two weeks later, a suicide bomber targeting Arab police recruits in Jalawla killed at least 28 people, an attack the Kurds blamed on Sunni insurgents, and Arabs blamed on Kurds.
Last week, Kurdish officials also agreed to withdraw the pesh merga from Khanaqin as long as the Iraqi army agreed not to enter.
"We cannot stand by with crossed hands and do nothing in the disputed areas while Kurds are being killed," said Jafar Mustafa Ali, the Kurdish regional government's minister of state for pesh merga affairs. "We will step in as soon as the Iraqi government leaves."
Khanaqin's mayor, Mohammed Mullah Hassan, said the city would remain under Kurdish control even if the troops all departed. "We are all pesh merga now," he said.
In Khanaqin, almost all the street signs and conversation are in Kurdish. Government buildings display the Kurdish flag instead of the Iraqi one and the picture of Massoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdish regional government, instead of Maliki. Some Arabs have been required to obtain Kurdish-issued identification cards to enter the city.
"We are not trying to control the area -- we are already controlling the area," said Fuad Hussein, Barzani's chief of staff. "There is a reality on the ground now in disputed areas across Iraq that can't be ignored."
Hussein accused Maliki of trying to seize land that belongs to Kurds. "We have the feeling that there is a hidden agenda here," he said. "They want to drive us from the area. Some of them want to drive the Kurds out of all of Iraq."
Kurdish leaders have agreed to remove pesh merga forces from areas such as Jalawla and Khanaqin to prevent any erosion of their control over a Maryland-size swath of land that makes up about 7 percent of Iraq's territory.
Kurds and Arabs across that area say it is under the authority of Kurds, even in those places without a large pesh merga presence. Even though the ultimate fate of Kirkuk is uncertain, both sides acknowledge that it is run by the Kurds: The governor is a Kurd, the majority of the provincial council is Kurdish, the military leaders of the Iraqi army units in the area are Kurdish, and the secretive Asayesh is said by both sides to have the best intelligence in town.
Many Arabs and Kurds in these areas begin conversations with recitations of their respective narratives of suffering and oppression. For the Kurds, the central villain in their recent history is Saddam Hussein, whose "Arabization" campaign drove tens of thousands of Kurds from their homelands and replaced them with Arabs. Iraqi Arabs in those areas now accuse the Kurds of employing similar tactics.
The question of where to draw the exact boundary of the Kurdish autonomous region is one of the most politically explosive issues in Iraq. The Iraqi constitution called for a reckoning of the competing claims, including a census and a referendum. But the mandated 2007 deadline for the referendum passed, and it is now unclear what will happen.
U.S. and other Western officials, fearing that the issue could imperil the security gains made over the past year, tried to persuade both sides to back a U.N. process to present reports on Kirkuk and other contested areas as part of a strategy to "defuse and deflect the referendum," said Stefan de Mistura, head of the U.N. Assistance Mission in Iraq. Kirkuk, which the Kurds refer to as "Our Jerusalem" because of their emotional and historical attachment to the city, presents a particular difficulty because it lies atop an estimated 7 percent of the world's oil reserves.
"I am going to be one of the wealthiest men in the world," said Ahmed Hameed al-Obaidi, secretary general of the Arab bloc in Kirkuk. "I would never let the Kurds steal this money by making the city part of their region."
Western officials increasingly believe that a referendum in which residents of individual areas decide whether to join the Kurdish autonomous region will only spark greater conflict. De Mistura said the approach now is to have the leaders of each bloc reach a viable compromise, perhaps to be confirmed later through a straight yes-or-no referendum.
"At the end of the day, what we need is a grand deal, not a piecemeal approach," de Mistura said.
Yet far-reaching compromises seem remote from places such as Sinjar, a ramshackle city on the border with Syria that is ringed by Arab villages but controlled by Kurds. After a coordinated bombing there last year killed hundreds of Yazidis, a religious minority that some consider Kurdish, pesh merga forces tightened their control of the area, according to Arab and Christian residents.
Abdullah Ajeel al-Yawer, an Arab tribal leader near Sinjar, gathered dozens of Arabs from the area in his home on a recent morning. They described how Kurdish forces had driven them from their homes, detained and tortured them in prisons in the Kurdish region and prevented them from launching their own political party.
"They are like the Gestapo," Yawer said. "Their treatment is the same as what Saddam Hussein did."
Sarbest Terwaneshy, the head of the Kurdish Democratic Party in Sinjar and described by U.S. and U.N. officials as the most powerful figure in the region, denied the allegations against the pesh merga and said the fighters were in the area only to provide security.
"If the pesh merga leave, all the people will leave in a huge exodus," he said. "Without the Kurds, the massacre of last year would be repeated tens of times."

Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq

This is from the NYtimes.
This shows that conflict in Iraq may be shifting to different locations including Kirkuk. If the Kurds don't act soon against the PKK they will face a Turkish incursion against PKK bases in northern Iraq.

Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq


By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and QAIS MIZHER
Published: October 20, 2007
BAGHDAD, Oct. 19 — In the latest bout of violence around the northern oil city of Kirkuk, insurgents blew up an oil pipeline, battled a convoy carrying bodyguards of a deputy prime minister and ambushed a police chief, Iraqi officials said on Friday.

Meanwhile, a top Kurdish leader issued a statement vowing to “defend” Iraqi Kurdistan from potential attacks by the Turkish Army.

The violence on Friday underscored the continued instability of the area surrounding Kirkuk, where some Sunni insurgents fled earlier this year from strongholds in Baghdad and Baquba after increased American troop deployments in central Iraq.

The deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, a Kurd, was not in the convoy, according to an Iraqi security official in Kirkuk. But the ambush and fighting, which took place 60 miles south of Kirkuk, left one member of the convoy dead and another wounded, according to an official from Mr. Salih’s office.

Farther north, one of Kurdistan’s two most powerful leaders warned Turkey that Kurds would defend themselves against an invasion. The statement, by Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, reiterated in stronger terms previous admonitions by Kurdish leaders that Turkish forces should not cross into Iraqi Kurdistan to drive out Kurdish guerrillas who use mountain bases as safe havens after attacks inside Turkey.

A spokesman for the Kurdish Regional Government quoted a statement by Mr. Barzani as saying, “If the Turkish Army attacks Kurdistan, we are ready to defend the Kurdistan Regional Government and protect the democracy that Kurdish people live under.”

While American officials continue to highlight recent gains against Sunni extremists in western and central Iraq, there are concerns that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and other homegrown jihadist groups may be in a position to gain power around Kirkuk by exploiting the city’s tense social and political situation. In one example of that influence, the police near Kirkuk recently discovered a couple carrying a marriage license issued by the Islamic State of Iraq, a militant group linked with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

The Kurds are intent on consolidating their control of Kirkuk, and many Sunni Arabs resettled there by Saddam Hussein now feel threatened, spawning fears that they will collaborate with extremists.

That is what happened in Baquba last year after government leaders in Baghdad appointed highly sectarian Shiites to command security forces in Diyala Province, a move that emboldened Sunni guerrillas to take control of the city.

In another attack 30 miles west of Kirkuk, gunmen ambushed the convoy carrying the Iraqi police commander of the town of Riyadh, Capt. Abdullah Jabouri, according to the police in nearby Hawija. Captain Jabouri escaped, the police said, but two guards were seriously wounded.

The pipeline was attacked near the village of Safra, about 40 miles west of Kirkuk. Initial reports suggested that insurgents used an improvised explosive device, said Col. Sadr Adeen Abdullah of the Iraqi Army. The explosion sent plumes of thick black smoke drifting all the way to Kirkuk, he said.

The United States military command in Baghdad reported the deaths of two American soldiers. One soldier died from a “noncombat-related illness” Wednesday after being flown to a military hospital in Germany. Another soldier was killed Thursday by an insurgent attack in southern Baghdad.

Also Friday, one of Iraq’s most influential Sunni politicians, Adnan al-Dulaimi, became the latest Iraqi leader to demand that the former defense minister, Sultan Hashem Ahmed, be given a stay of execution. Mr. Ahmed was convicted of war crimes and genocide for his role in Mr. Hussein’s 1988 attacks on the Kurds. But many Iraqi officials believe that he was an honorable military officer.

Mr. Ahmed and Ali Hassan al-Majid, better known as Chemical Ali, are to be hanged once the American military turns them over to Iraqi officials. American officials say they are waiting for Iraq to resolve an internal legal dispute about the two men. Late Friday, an American spokesman said both men were in American custody “with no scheduled date for transfer.”

Iraqi oil spoils

This is from the NYTimes. This article shows the problems facing US Iraq oil policy and also the fact that not only Kurdistan but some oil companies including Hunt oil in the US are making an end run around the central government. No word yet on when the federal oil bill will pass.


Iraqi Oil Spoils

Published: October 15, 2007
The quickening pace of oil deals between Kurdish regional leaders and foreign companies is another sign that Iraq is spinning out of control and the Bush administration has no idea how to stop it.

President Bush set enactment of a national oil law that centralizes development and ensures an equitable division of the profits as a key benchmark of progress. Iraq’s leaders, who have little interest in equity or reconciliation, have blithely ignored it. So the Kurds have taken matters into their own hands, signing nine legally questionable exploration deals with foreign companies.

The administration has complained that the deals “needlessly elevated tensions” between the Kurds and the central government. But it apparently hasn’t leaned very hard on the one American oil company involved, Hunt Oil of Dallas, which has close ties to the White House. Iraq’s oil ministry, meanwhile, has warned that the contracts will be either ignored or considered illegal.

We cannot blame the Kurds for wanting to get on with exploiting their region’s lucrative oil deposits for energy and for profit. While the rest of Iraq is convulsed in violence and politically paralyzed, the Kurdish-administered northeast is the one relatively peaceful region, with functioning schools and government, a separate army and booming business.

The oil contracts, however, are a dangerous attempt to establish facts on the ground, fanning even more distrust and resentment. The Sunnis, many of whom live in areas without any oil resources, fear they will get shut out completely from the country’s oil wealth. The Shiite-dominated government suspects that the Kurds are looking for the resources to secede from Iraq. Any sign that Iraq is about to break up will encourage even more dangerous meddling by neighboring Turkey and Iran.

The Kurds agreed to a carefully constructed compromise national draft oil law last February and insist they remain committed to sharing oil revenues with the rest of the country. But as The Times’s James Glanz reported last month, the compromise appears to have collapsed in an ever more bitter struggle among the Shiite-led government in Baghdad and the Sunnis — who both insist on a strong central government role in letting contracts and running the oil fields — and the Kurds, who demand more regional control.

Foreign oil companies are so eager for profits that they don’t seem worried about whether the deals are legally binding or how they may contribute to Iraq’s chaos.

The White House needs to send a clearer warning to these companies — American and foreign — about the dangers of their course. It should also urge the companies to bring their own pressure on Iraqi officials to adopt a law that ensures that whatever system emerges is transparent, accountable and profitable for all Iraqis. Ignoring that is a recipe for continued chaos.

Western Oil Major makes bid for Kurdistan oil

No mention of who the majors were. They are all in the wings waiting for the oil law. Well actually they are meeting in September even though the oil law probably will not be passed. This is from Times on Line.


From The TimesAugust 23, 2007

Western oil major’s bid marks breakthrough for troubled Iraqi industry

Carl Mortished, International Business Editor
The prospects for Kurdish oil were given a boost yesterday when DNO, a Norwegian explorer, said that a big oil company had offered $700 million (£351 million) for its licence in Kurdistan.

The indicative offer for the licence, which was rejected by DNO, includes its discovery at Tawke, in northeastern Iraq, in territory administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and represents almost half the value of DNO. It sent the Norwegian explorer’s shares up 12 per cent on the Oslo bourse.

DNO declined to name the interested purchaser, describing it as “a large international oil company”. Speculation yesterday centred on Statoil, the Norwegian oil multinational, which recently revealed plans to open an office in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region, to study exploration opportunities in the region.

A bid by a big Western oil group for a Kurdish oil licence would be the first significant foreign investment in Iraq’s oil industry. The threat of kidnappings and violence has kept foreign investors from the vast oil reserves in southern Iraq, while political risk has deterred oil majors from setting foot in the Kurdish region.

Oil industry experts also pointed to Indian or Chinese companies, which have been aggressive in their pursuit of oil assets, and they highlighted the significant risk for a Western oil major in making a Kurdish investment. “No oil major would invest in the Kurdish region because they know it will wreck their chances in southern Iraq,” the chief executive of one oil company with interests in the region said.

DNO’s activity in Kurdistan and its Tawke find have fuelled controversy in Iraq and created friction between the KRG and the national Government in Baghdad, which resented the issuing of oil exploration licences by the Kurdish administration.

The Norwegian explorer acquired its licence in 2004 and confirmed its discovery at Tawke in 2005, but development of the prospect has been dogged by quarrels between Erbil and Baghdad over ownership of mineral rights and agreement over a federal Iraqi petroleum law, which would create a legal regime for oil exploration. Development of Kurdistan’s oil prospects is believed to be a key plank in the KRG’s softly-softly strategy of creating an independent Kurdish state. The KRG has issued licences to a number of other companies, including Addax Petroleum, a Canadian explorer, which hopes to develop the Taq Taq field in collaboration with Genel Enerji, a Turkish oil business.

Agreement with Baghdad over the oil law is essential to enable oil exports to be made from the region. DNO has laid a pipeline to connect the Tawke oilfield with Iraq’s main northern export pipeline, which links the Kirkuk oilfield to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The final link to the export route awaits the passage of the oil law in Baghdad, which DNO hopes will occur in September.

The northern export route has been shut since the American-led invasion of Iraq because of bombings of the pipeline by insurgents. Closure of the northern pipeline has hit efforts to raise Iraqi oil exports above their present 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to prewar levels as high as 2.5 million bpd.

The Iraqi Government is trying to rebuild the pipeline, but the explorers in Kurdistan hope that a link to the export route near the Turkish border will secure their exports and avoid the violence taking place in the Kirkuk region. Hussain al-Shahristani, the Iraqi Oil Minister, expressed confidence this week that the Iraqi parliament would pass the oil law soon.

However, the minister hinted that resolution of the dispute between Baghdad and Erbil was still not assured. He said that the new law would review oil and gas deals struck by Saddam Hussein and the KRG to “guarantee total national control and the highest return for Iraq” and added: “Any contract that contradicts this has to be redrawn.”

The KRG has accepted the principle that all oil revenues should be divided between the Iraqi regions, but insists that its region must be compensated for oppression of it during the Saddam regime, when it was excluded from participating in the oil wealth.

DNO yesterday revealed further progress at its Tawke prospect, with the appraisal of a further well, drilling deeper into the reservoir. It said that a test had achieved flow rates of 8,000 bpd from its Tawke 8 well.

Takeover speculation has swirled over DNO before. In January, its shares rose 16 per cent when a major shareholder said that he had received an offer for his 5 per cent stake.

Kurdish leader threatens civil war over Kirkuk

If the US or the Iraqi govt. double crosses the Kurds then the Iraqi government could easily fall and perhaps civil war ensue as Barzani threatens. Most commentators are simply ignoring the situation for the moment.

Iraq: Kurdish leader threatens civil war over Kirkuk
By James Cogan
7 August 2007
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The president of the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), Massoud Barzani, last Tuesday threatened “a real civil war” in Iraq if a referendum to incorporate the oil-rich city of Kirkuk into Kurdish territory continues to be delayed by the other Iraqi political factions.

Clause 140 of the 2005 US-vetted Iraqi constitution states that a referendum in Kirkuk and other Kurdish “disputed territories” must take place by December 31, 2007 to determine whether the populace wants to join the KRG. The inclusion of the clause was one of the main pay-offs by the Bush administration for the assistance of the Kurdish parties. Since the 2003 invasion, they have been the most loyal allies of the US occupation. Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani have been crucial participants in all the puppet governments in Baghdad, generally endorsing every action by the White House and the US military.

Kurdish authorities and security forces in Kirkuk province have been working to ensure that the disputed territories have a clear majority of Kurdish voters before the referendum. Tens of thousands of Kurds who were driven out of Kirkuk in the 1980s by Saddam Hussein’s regime have been re-settled in the city. Thousands of Arabs have been evicted over the past four years. This reverse ethnic cleansing is called “normalisation” in the constitution. While some Arabs have taken financial assistance and left voluntarily, others allege that Kurdish militias have used actual or threatened violence. Turkish-speaking Turkomans, who have been a major presence in Kirkuk for centuries, also claim they are being terrorised into leaving.

Gaining control of Kirkuk would provide the economic foundations for the long-term perspective of Kurdish nationalists—a separate Kurdish state. The KRG currently consists of Iraq’s three northern majority Kurdish provinces of Sulaymaniyah, Irbil and Dahuk. The adjoining areas that would be added under Clause 140 include the Kurdish populated districts of Ninewa and Diyala provinces and much of Kirkuk province, which contain Iraq’s oldest oil fields and as much as 40 percent of the country’s total untapped oil reserves. The Kurdish region would be transformed into one of the world’s top 10 oil producers overnight.

Just four months before the referendum deadline, however, the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has done next to nothing to prepare for a vote. In particular, it failed to complete a census in the disputed territories by July 31, as had been previously agreed with the KRG.

The stalling reflects the extent of opposition. Arab and Turkoman leaders in Kirkuk have warned they will take up arms to stop a Kurdish-controlled referendum, the outcome of which is predetermined and would overnight convert members of their communities into second class citizens in a de-facto separate state. Sunni and Shiite Arab parties in Baghdad oppose losing lucrative oil revenues and have demanded that Clause 140 be repudiated. In Ankara, some Turkish politicians, who fear an energy-rich KRG would intensify separatist calls among Turkey’s 15 million-strong Kurdish minority, have called for an invasion of northern Iraq to stop a KRG annexation of Kirkuk.

The Bush administration publicly stands by the Iraqi constitution. Leading figures within the US political establishment, however, have expressed concerns over the Kurdish claims on Kirkuk. There are fears of sharp tensions with Turkey—a key NATO ally—as well as deepening instability in Iraq. The Iraq Study Group report prepared last year by Republican James Baker and Democrat Lee Hamilton described Kirkuk as a “powder keg” and called for the referendum to be delayed indefinitely.

Barzani’s threat of civil war testifies to the frustration among the Kurdish elite over the possibility that their ambitions might be thwarted. He told the US-based Arabic television station Al-Hurra:

“There is procrastination and if this issue is not resolved, as I said before, all options are open. Frankly I am not comfortable with the behaviour and the policy of the federal [Iraqi] government on Kirkuk and Clause 140 ... The Kurds will never relinquish or bargain over Kirkuk, but we have accepted to regain Kirkuk through constitutional and legal methods. But if we despair of those constitutional and legal methods, then we will have the right to resort to other means. If Clause 140 is not implemented, then there will be a real civil war.”

Barzani’s rhetoric contains a significant degree of brinkmanship, aimed at pressuring the Iraqi government and the US into facilitating the referendum as soon as possible. Maliki is flying to Turkey today for talks with re-elected Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the KRG’s ambitions in Kirkuk as well as the presence in Iraq’s north of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels who have fought a 23-year civil war with the Turkish state.

As many as 200,000 Turkish troops are massed on the Iraqi border and the Turkish military is demanding parliamentary approval to cross over and destroy PKK hideouts. The top Turkish commander, General Yasar Buyukanit, stated on May 31 that the only question he needed to be answered was whether “something will happen with Barzani as well” if his forces invaded Iraq.

According to an article in yesterday’s Washington Post, Kurdish politicians have “urged Maliki to tell the Turkish leader to stay out of Iraq’s affairs”. If Maliki does not, it could end his government. The main Sunni faction and the large Shiite faction loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have walked out of the cabinet. Baghdad is swirling with rumours of new coalitions being formed and an imminent vote to elect a new prime minister. If the Kurdish legislators in the Iraqi parliament switched to supporting another candidate, their votes could bring Maliki down.

Omer Taspinar, from the Brookings Institute, told the Post he believed the Kurds wanted to trade their agreement to crack down on the PKK “as a quid pro quo for Kirkuk”. In other words, if Turkey agrees to the city and its oil coming under Kurdish jurisdiction, the KRG would allow a Turkish military intervention or deploy its own forces to dislodge the PKK from the border region. Such a deal would also serve to mollify US fears of regional chaos.

If Kurdish political maneuvering fails, however, the KRG has a considerable military force to turn Barzani’s talk of civil war into reality. Kurds who were recruited out of the peshmerga militias of the KDP and PUK make up a large percentage of the new Iraqi army units operating in northern Iraq. One estimate is that the KRG could mobilise 175,000 fighters, equipped with tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery.

Arab and Turkoman organisations fear that deployments are already underway for the armed seizure of the city. Following suicide bombings in Kirkuk on July 16 that killed 85 people, there are unconfirmed reports that as many as 12,000 additional Kurdish troops have begun moving into areas surrounding the city, ostensibly to provide security. According to the Voices of Iraq news agency, some 6,000 peshmerga have been dispatched to “protect oil pipelines”, while another 6,000 are being sent to “protect power lines”.

Given the carnage in Iraq over the past four-and-a-half years, Barzani’s choice of the word “real” to describe the character of a civil war over Kirkuk cannot be passed over lightly.

The Kurdish leader’s remark suggests that he believes ethnic conflict in northern Iraq would result in even greater death, destruction and displacement than the sectarian violence raging in Iraq’s central provinces. Fighting between Shiite militias linked to Maliki’s pro-US government and Sunni Muslim extremists opposed to its existence has killed tens of thousands of people from both sects and forced well over one million to flee their homes. An exodus of Arabs, Turkoman and other minorities from Kurdish-populated areas—including Iraq’s third-largest city of Mosul which the KRG has only reluctantly not laid claim to yet—could produce well over two million refugees.

The Bush administration has sought to avoid a conflict in northern Iraq that would inevitably provoke a political crisis in Baghdad, destabilise the only relatively stable areas of the country and potentially draw in Iraq’s neighbours—Syria and Iran, as well as Turkey. Yet, just as the US invasion is responsible for fuelling sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions, so it has unleashed communal forces in Iraq’s north over which Washington has no control.






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World Socialist Web Site

Kurdish regional government has not seen oil law.

This is quite surprising that the cabinet would pass the law without even showing it to the Kurdish regional government. If there are sections with which the Kurds do not agree it will not likely pass the legislature. I wonder why it was able to pass the cabinet quickly?

Regional Kurdish govt says it's not seen Iraq oil law
Wed Jul 4, 2007 8:26AM BST
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The local government in Iraq's northern region of Kurdistan said it had yet to see a draft hydrocarbon law approved by the cabinet in Baghdad, possibly complicating passage of the landmark legislation.

Parliament was expected to start debating the law on Wednesday, Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a news conference on Tuesday, describing the bill as the "most important" law in Iraq.

Washington has pushed Iraq for months to speed up passage of the law and other pieces of legislation, which are seen as vital to curbing sectarian violence and healing deep divisions between majority Shi'ites and minority Sunni Arabs.

But the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a key party to the negotiations, said it had neither seen nor approved the draft.

"We hope the cabinet is not approving a text with which the KRG disagrees because this would violate the constitutional rights of the Kurdistan region," the KRG said in a statement obtained on Wednesday.

Iraq's cabinet originally approved the draft in February but faced stiff opposition from the regional government in largely autonomous Kurdistan, which felt it was getting a raw deal.

The law decides who controls the world's third-largest oil reserves, aims to provide a legal framework for attracting foreign investment and sets up a new state oil company to oversee the industry. The final draft has not been made public.

The Kurds had previously said some of the law's annexes were unconstitutional because they wrested oilfields from regional governments and placed them under the new state oil firm.

Most reserves are in the Kurdish north and Shi'ite south, underscoring the need for equitable distribution to ensure Sunni Arab provinces in central Iraq get a fair share of revenue.

A companion law that covers revenue sharing would be approved by the cabinet this week and submitted to parliament next week, Iraqi officials have said.

The Kurds approved the revenue-sharing component in June, agreeing to take 17 percent of all oil revenue.

Thamir Ghadhban, an energy adviser to Maliki, said on Tuesday that a new Federal Oil and Gas Council would sort out the disputed annexes after parliament approved the law.

The council would allow regions to negotiate with oil firms but the central government would need to approve contracts, Iraqi officials in Baghdad have said.

(Additional reporting by Peg Mackey in London)


© Reuters 2006. All rights reserved. Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

Juan Cole: Iraq: The Eighth Front

Not only has the US allowed the PKK to exist in northern Iraq although it classifies it as a terrorist organisation it has also turned over security in the area to the Kurds, washing its hands entirely of any responsibility apparently.


Thursday, June 07, 2007
The Eighth Front

According to Turkish sources, hundreds of Turkish troops crossed into Iraqi Kurdistan on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in hot pursuit of Kurdish terrorists. There was some skepticism about whether this incident actually occurred, and it was both affirmed and denied by various Turkish sources in the course of the day. MSNBC showed footage of the incursion, but I don't know if that was stock footage or if it showed today's events accurately (shouldn't they label these things?). A US military spokesman in Baghdad could not confirm the border incursion but said "we are very concerned." As well he should be.

A hot eighth front may have just opened up in the kaleidoscopic Iraq War, which appears to be gradually fulfilling its potential for unravelling the entire Middle East as it was constituted by the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 in the aftermath of WW I.

How many fronts are there in the Iraq War? The Sunni Arab guerrillas of the center, west and north are themselves fighting a four-front war. They are fighting US troops. They are fighting Shiites. They are fighting Kurds in the Kirkuk region and Ninevah and Diyala provinces. And they are fighting other Sunni Arab forces (Baathists fight Salafi fundamentalists, and both fight tribal levies gravitating to the Americans).

Then there is a muted Shiite front with two dimensions. Radical Shiites attack US forces. And, in Basra, Diwaniya and elsewhere, there is Shiite on Shiite violence as the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (often infiltrated into the Iraqi police) fights the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr.

So that makes 6-- four Sunni Arab fronts and 2 Shiite fronts.

Then there are the Kurds. Of course they are fighting the Sunni Arabs. But they have also given haven to two terrorist groups. One is the PKK, or Kurdish Worker's Party, which operates in Turkey's eastern Anatolia, blowing things up and killing people. Some 5,000 PKK fighters are holed up in Iraqi Kurdistan, to the rage of the Turkish government in Ankara. The other is PEJAK, an Iranian-Kurdish terrorist group that launches attacks in Iran. Both Iran and Turkey have lobbed mortars and artillery shells over the border into villages of Iraqi Kurdistan as a way of lodging a complaint and making a threat against these Kurdish forces.

So in addition to the Arab-Kurdish front already counted, that makes 2 more fronts, for a grand total of 8. Not all 8 are very active at all times. But all 8 do break out into substantial violence from time to time. And we may have just seen a flare-up in no. 8.

By the way, why does the Bush administration allow its Kurdistan allies to harbor PKK terrorists? I thought that sort of thing was a no-no in the age of the war on terror? Wasn't it even the casus belli for Bush's two big invasions? Or is it all right to do terrorism to Turkey and Iran, but not to the US and Britain? I'm confused.

Turkish troops enter Iraq

Turkey has been requesting US and Kurd authorities to do something about the PKK for ages but nothing seems to happen. Now the US has signed an agreement ceding security in the region to the Kurdish government. Turkey has lost patience, particulary since there have been cross border attacks by the PKM apparently.

Turkish officials: troops enter Iraq By SELCAN HACAOGLU, Associated Press Writer
11 minutes ago



ANKARA, Turkey - Several thousand Turkish troops crossed into northern Iraq early Wednesday to chase Kurdish guerrillas who operate from bases there, Turkish security officials told The Associated Press.



Two senior security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the raid was limited in scope and that it did not constitute the kind of large incursion that Turkish leaders have been discussing in recent weeks.

"It is not a major offensive and the number of troops is not in the tens of thousands," one of the officials told the AP by telephone. The official is based in southeast Turkey, where the military has been battling separatist Kurdish rebels since they took up arms in 1984.

The U.S. military said it could not confirm the reports but was "very concerned."

The last major Turkish incursion into northern Iraq was in 1997, when about 50,000 troops were sent to the region.

The officials did not say where the Turkish force was operating in northern Iraq, nor did he say how long they would be there. Both officials are involved in anti-rebel operations, though they did not disclose whether they participated in the planning of the operation on Wednesday.

The officials said any confrontation with Iraqi Kurdish groups, who have warned against a Turkish incursion, could trigger a larger cross-border operation. The Turkish military has asked the government in Ankara to approve such an incursion, but the government has not given formal approval.

An official at military headquarters in Ankara declined to confirm or deny the report that Turkish troops had entered Iraq.

Turkish troops have staged so-called "hot pursuits" into northern Iraq in the past, usually after citing reports of attacks against Turkish soldiers in the border region.

They have sometimes shelled suspected rebel positions across the border.

Turkish authorities rarely acknowledge such military operations, which were more frequent before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The Turkish military said rebels across the border in Iraq opened fire Wednesday on a Turkish military outpost in the province of Hakkari, which borders both Iraq and Iran. It said there were no casualties.

Turkey has been building up its military forces on the Iraqi border recently, amid debate among political and military leaders about whether to attack separatist rebels of the PKK, or Kurdistan Workers' Party. The rebels stage raids in southeast Turkey after crossing over from hideouts in Iraq.

"We can't confirm a thing at this time, but we are looking into it and obviously we are very concerned," said Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, a military spokesman in Baghdad.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said the government has not seen any major operations along the border.

"There has been intermittent shelling, for instance, attacks, certain violations, minor violations on the border which we have documented and reported back to the Turkish side, but honestly we haven't seen any major operations along the border," Zebari told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.

"We are aware of this Turkish troops buildup on the border and the Iraqi government position has been that we will not accept or tolerate any military incursion into Iraqi territories," he said.

"We have urged all sides, including the Kurdish leadership, to ease tension and to seek dialogue to resolve all outstanding issues because we believe any military incursion into the northern provinces would only lead to further escalations and instability and this is in nobody's interests, not in Iraq's, nor the United States, nor Turkey," he added. "We are in contact with the Turkish officials and we have friendly, good relations with the Turkish government."

George Bagus, an adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also said his office had no knowledge about such an operation and declined to comment further.

During major incursions in the 1990s, fighting occurred on a front stretching more than 100 miles, mostly in rugged terrain where communications were difficult and the Turkish Kurds were already entrenched in the mountains

Turkey seeks UN approval for incursion in Northern Iraq against rebels.

Apparently Turkey already has a very small military contingent in Iraq that has been there for ages. The US has turned over security in the area to Kurdistan. Turkey asked that US for ages to do something about the PKK and this seems to be the US response. Kurdistan obviously tolerates the rebel presence.

Turkey seeks UN OK for cross-border action
Move follows attack by Kurdish rebels in Iraq
Steven Edwards, The Ottawa Citizen
Published: Tuesday, June 05, 2007
UNITED NATIONS - The prospect that Turkish troops will invade northern Iraq to attack Kurdish rebels rose yesterday as Turkey reportedly asked to meet UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to reaffirm its right to self-defence.

The move comes as the latest Kurdish rebel attack inside Turkey killed at least seven Turkish soldiers and injured seven more at a military outpost near the Iraqi border.

Turkey has been massing troops on the border, and reminding the UN of its rights under the body's charter would signal the government is preparing the legal and diplomatic ground for military action.


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Font: ****The U.S. believed as recently as Sunday that it had dissuaded Turkey from mounting any operation in one of the few parts of Iraq that is relatively peaceful and prosperous, but the new rebel attack appears to have changed the mood in Ankara.

"We have every right to take measures against terrorist activities directed at us from northern Iraq," Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister, told European Union officials visiting the Turkish capital.

Turkish media commented yesterday that the EU was tacitly backing Turkey's right to retaliate after Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, and Olli Rehn, the EU enlargement commissioner, neither condemned nor openly supported Mr. Gul's declaration.

The rebels, members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), seek to create an independent Kurdish state from parts of southeastern Turkey, northeastern Iraq, northeastern Syria and northwestern Iran.

Faced with an Arab insurgency and al-Qaeda resistance in central and southern Iraq, the U.S. has been reluctant to intervene in the north, where the mainly Kurdish population enjoys semi-autonomy.

"We have not seen effective steps taken as of now," one senior Turkish diplomat said.

But he also said there were numerous channels of communication open with the Iraqis and the Americans, and expressed confidence something short of a cross-border incursion would occur.

The Turkish parliament would have to approve any military action outside Turkey's borders, but the government has already said it would back the armed forces if they requested permission to launch an attack.

Kurds will block Iraq oil law.

This article confirms what the Kurdish oil minister said in the earlier article I posted. It seems that there could be more wrangling and discord over the draft bill and it is unlikely to pass before the end of May.


Kurds to 'block' Iraq oil law





The battle is on for control of Kurdish oil [GALLO/GETTY]



Iraq's Kurdish region has said it will try to block a draft oil law in parliament, raising the stakes in a row with the central government.

The Kurdistan autonomous region backed the draft law in February but has disputed annexes to it that would give control of oilfields to a new state-run oil company.




Ashti Hawrami, minister of natural resources in Kurdistan, said: "These annexes are unconstitutional and will not be supported by the Kurdish regional government in the federal parliament."

The Kurdistan autonomous region could be on a collision course with Baghdad over the US-backed draft.






The threat to fight the bill in Iraq's national parliament comes just days after the oil ministry in Baghdad warned regions against signing contracts until the law was passed.

'Old regime'

Officials from the Iraqi government and Kurdistan have clashed over the annexes, raising the prospect of delays that have already dogged the lengthy drafting of the legislation.

Hawrami repeated a threat that his oil-rich region would implement its own oil laws if no agreement was reached on the dispute over the annexes.

And Kurdish officials have already signed deals with foreign oil companies.

"The annexes must recognise that the Kurdish regional government has already allocated exploration and development blocks in the Kurdistan region under Production Sharing Agreements pursuant to the Iraq Constitution," he said.

In a reference to Saddam Hussein, Hawrami said the newly created Iraq National Oil Company (INOC) would be a return to "old regime methods".

"The concentration of power in the hands of INOC will represent a return to method of petroleum management of previous Iraqi regimes.

"Where centralised oil power was ... used to fund violent campaigns by elites against neighbouring countries and against our own Iraqi citizens," he said.

Officials from the central government and Kurdish regional officials have said they would meet to settle the disputes, but Hawrami said sending a delegation to Baghdad was "futile".

A US government official in Baghdad said on Sunday Washington was confident the law would pass.

"I think that the government is committed to getting the oil law through. I know various bodies have expressed concern about the hydrocarbon law given the stakes involved," the official said.

"The government has a majority in parliament."

Kurdistan: The next battleground

Nary a mention of the PKK and Turkey's threat to enter northern Iraq if something is not done by Kurdistan or the US to neutralise the threat. The sure sign that neither Kurdistan and Iraq as a whole are not sovereign is that flights from and out of Irbil airport must be sanctioned through a US airbase in Qatar. Amazing?

Kurdistan: Iraq's Next Battleground?
By Andrew Lee Butters / Arbil

Like residents of Berlin during the airlift, inhabitants of Arbil--capital of the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq--get a little flutter in their hearts when they see a plane coming in to land. Built after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, Arbil's international airport is a symbol to Kurds that their years of isolation as an oppressed ethnic minority are over and that the Kurdish region, unlike the rest of Iraq, is open for business. Passengers flying into Baghdad have to endure a corkscrew landing to avoid possible surface-to-air missiles. But a trip to Arbil is so safe that on my flight I was the only passenger packing body armor. When I arrived, my biggest problem was the $50 fare charged for a 10-minute cab ride by the drivers of Hello Taxi--and finding a room at one of the city's packed hotels.

Such is life in Iraqi Kurdistan, the last beacon of stability amid the wreckage of the U.S. enterprise in Iraq. Of course, stability is a relative term. True, the airport is putting in a runway long enough to accommodate jumbo jets, but for now it will be used mainly for U.S. military flights. That's because only one Western carrier--Austrian Airlines--is brave enough to land there. Other flights are run by off-brand charters with names like Flying Carpet and Middle Eastern carriers like Iraqi Airways. And even those are unreliable. Many of the officials at Iraqi Airways are former Baathists who deliberately try to delay flights. Flights from Turkey often get canceled when there's a public dispute between Kurdish and Turkish politicians. And all flights in and out of Kurdish Iraq still have to receive clearance from both the civil-aviation authority in Baghdad and the American air base in Qatar.

Iraqi Kurds have been in control of their region since 1991, when, with the help of the U.S.-enforced no-fly zone, they drove Saddam's forces out of northern Iraq. But now, four years after the liberation of the rest of the country, Kurdish Iraq is undergoing an identity crisis. On the one hand, it is a rare success story in the Middle East: a stable territory run by a secular leadership committed to economic and political reform and sitting on a huge pool of oil. On the other hand, it is tiny and landlocked, uncomfortably attached to a war-ravaged nation and surrounded by unfriendly neighbors. Despite the region's outward signs of tranquillity, the fate of Kurdistan--whether it will continue as an inspiring example of what the rest of Iraq could look like or become engulfed by the country's violence--remains unresolved, dependent as much on what happens to the barely functioning Iraqi state as on the Kurds.

For the Bush Administration, the central question is how long the Kurds can be persuaded to remain part of a united Iraq. The overwhelming majority of Kurds would like to break free of Iraq and form an independent nation. So far, Kurdish leaders have been a constructive force in holding Iraq together, helping to write and adopt a national constitution that, although it gave great powers to the regions, has kept Iraq intact as a federal state. Kurds are serving at the highest levels of the Iraqi government, including as President, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister.

But it's doubtful that spirit of cooperation will last. The further that Iraq slides into civil war, the more the Kurds will want to insulate themselves from it, by carving out more political and economic autonomy. Even if they stop short of outright secession, the Kurds could still unleash new conflicts in Iraq if their impatience with the fecklessness of the Baghdad government prompts them to take action on their own. The most explosive flashpoint is Kirkuk, the disputed oil-rich city that the Kurds lay claim to. As Iraq's Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, said on March 22 during the farewell visit of departing U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, "Our patience is not unlimited." So what happens to Iraq when it runs out?

WHEN I FIRST TRAVELED TO THE KURDISH north in August 2004 to escape the heat and violence of Baghdad, the so-called Switzerland of Iraq was disappointing in one respect: summers on the high plains of Arbil are almost as scorching. Otherwise, Kurdistan was a refuge. In Baghdad, journalists had begun hiring security entourages and erecting guarded compounds. To the north in Arbil, as a visiting American, I was practically given the keys to the city. I did my reporting by foot or hailed taxis from the street, spent my evenings in beer gardens or pizza parlors, and slept on the roof of the house, with the sound of crickets rather than Kalashnikovs in the cooling night air.

Since then the differences between Kurdistan and Iraq proper have become even more dramatic. The plains around Arbil--once a glaring semidesert wasteland--are exploding with luxury housing developments. They have names like British Village, which resembles a gated California suburb, and Dream City, which supposedly will have its own conference center, supermarket and American-style school. The Turkish developers of Naz City, a high-rise condominium complex, are trying to sell house-proud Kurds on modern apartment living. An American company wants to build Iraq's first ski resort in the mountains near the Turkish and Iranian borders. While citizens in Baghdad struggle to survive, a sign in Arbil declares that the city is "striving for perfection."

The Kurds' most important achievement has been to keep their region free of Iraq's insurgency and sectarian warfare, thanks to their army of 70,000 peshmerga soldiers. Not a single American soldier has been killed in Kurdistan since the start of the war in Iraq, and there hasn't been a major terrorist attack in Arbil since June 2005.

Take a walk, however, in any of this city's safe and prosperous neighborhoods, and you will quickly see that the other Iraq isn't so far away. Some 150,000 displaced Iraqi Arabs have taken refuge in Kurdistan from the conflict in the central and southern parts of the country. Kurdish officials require Iraqi Arabs trying to enter Kurdistan to have a Kurdish resident vouch for their character. As a result, the Arab refugee population is largely middle class, with a preponderance of doctors, lawyers and other professionals.

But as the number of newcomers swells, tensions are rising. Not many Kurds have forgotten the years of repression by Iraq's Arab majority, and many now blame Arabs for rising home prices. While I was waiting to speak to the president of Salahaddin University in Arbil, which has added some 200 Arab professors to its faculty, a visiting Kurdish archaeologist offered his expert opinion on the subject. "From Muhammad until now, Arabs are rotten to the bone," he said, "even when they are being friendly to you." Non-Kurdish Iraqis, for their part, resent being treated as second-class citizens in Kurdish Iraq. "Why do I need permission to live in my own country?" said Walaa Matti, an Assyrian Christian who fled his home in Mosul and works in the business center of a hotel in Arbil. "I'm Iraqi, and this is my country, but I feel like a stranger."

The Kurds' tenuous relationship with Arab Iraq is even more combustible some 47 miles south, in Kirkuk. The city is less than a two-hour drive from Arbil, but the road trip into the other Iraq is a spooky one. To the left, there's a chain of forts left over from the Iran-Iraq war, crumbling masonry monsters that look as if they were built to World War I specifications. The Hamreen Mountains to the right are practically deserted save for a series of sentry posts silhouetted along the ridge line. And waiting straight ahead at the gates of Kirkuk is a natural-gas flare, an eternal flame that the locals call Babagurgur, which is the symbol of this oil-rich city.

Kirkuk, with its mixed population of Kurds, Arabs and Turkomans, has long had the potential to be a sectarian powder keg. Under Saddam's Baathist regime, the Iraqi government forced out a large number of the city's majority Kurdish population and resettled the city with Arabs from the south. Now ethnic tensions are erupting as Kurds demand the return of Kirkuk to their control. The day I visited in March, a series of two car bombs and three roadside bombs killed 18 people. On April 1, at least 15 people, including eight schoolchildren, died in a suicide truck bombing.

The violence in this city of about 1 million people hasn't reached a level comparable to that in Baghdad. Infrastructure and services in the city are functional by Iraqi standards despite the central government, which delays projects by sheer inertia, say U.S. and Kurdish officials. Such neglect may soon reach a crisis point in Kirkuk. The Iraqi constitution calls for the city to hold a referendum by year's end on whether it should remain under the control of the central Iraqi government in Baghdad or become part of Iraqi Kurdistan.

A growing number of voices outside Iraq--including the Baker-Hamilton commission--have called for the contentious issue to be shelved. But Kurdish leaders say further delay only increases the chance that the political process for settling the Kirkuk issue will turn into an ethnic struggle. Kirkuk is a major staging ground for Arab insurgents trying to infiltrate Kurdistan, and Kurds say they could do a better job than the Iraqi government of maintaining security there. "If we had control of Kirkuk, we could clean it out in two months," said Abdullah Ali Muhammad, head of Kurdish security forces in Arbil. Other Kurdish officials warn that if the referendum is delayed, Kurds forced out of Kirkuk by the old regime's ethnic-cleansing program would try to return on their own. If that happens and if the Iraqi government hasn't moved out the "new" Arabs transplanted there under Saddam, "there will be civil war," according to Kamal Kirkuki, vice president of the Kurdistan Parliament and head of a committee overseeing territorial disputes. Delay would give insurgents that much longer to set off car bombs and push the city closer to Baghdad-style sectarian revenge killings.

And that's just the beginning. U.S. officials and Kurdish leaders know that unilateral moves by Kurds--to take Kirkuk on their own or drop out of the Iraqi government--would not only provoke the ire of Iraq's Arab majority but also risk intervention by Iraq's neighbors, such as Turkey, Iran and Syria, which all have restive Kurdish minorities of their own. Turkey, for instance, would likely shut the borders with Kurdistan and stop all flights coming in from over its airspace. Of all the problems that would follow, the most ironic could be that a newly independent oil-rich Kurdistan, without any refineries or pipelines, would run out of gas. Falah Mustafa Bakir, head of the Kurdish government's office of foreign relations, told me that declaring independence would be "political suicide."

But even that worst-case scenario might not be enough to dissuade the popular clamor inside Kurdistan for more assertive action. Just four years since the fall of Saddam, most Kurds may be willing to remain a part of Iraq for now, but few want their destinies to remain tied to a poor, failing state beset by sectarian carnage. Over time, the push for a free and independent Kurdistan may become irresistible. In a bid to manage expectations, the Kurdish leadership is putting out a new party line, echoed in mosques and newspaper editorials: "Be grateful." But as Americans have learned in Iraq, gratitude is a wasting asset.

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