Kirkuk Status May Hold up Oil Law

There is now talk of the oil law being passed within a month but with issues such as these and others it seems unlikely. The bill is still not even before parliament as far as I understand it. No doubt the members want to vacation soon as well!

IRAQ'S OIL WAR
Kirkuk Status May Hold Up Oil Law
Qubad Talabani Presses Need to Settle Fate of Disputed City
By CHRISTINA DAVIDSON Posted 20 hr. 33 min. ago
Chip Somodevilla/Getty
WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 25: Qubad Talabani, son of Iraq President Jalal Talabani, September 25, 2006 in Washington, DC.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, speaking in Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday, noted that the May 31 deadline for Iraq's passage of the hydrocarbons law had not been met, also stating, "We would certainly be happier if there were faster progress on the political front."

Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad told The Associated Press in a telephone interview this week, "We hope the ratification of this law will be achieved no more than one month from now. This law is considered a major national project and achievement."

But the Kurdish Regional Government's representative in Washington, Qubad Talabani, indicates that the thorny problem of the Kirkuk referendum requires resolution before the hydrocarbon law could hope to receive support from Kurdish politicians.

As Laura Rozen writes in a new profile of Qubud Talabani, the 29-year-old son of Iraqi president Jalal, in the Washington Monthly:


"Although he does not openly suggest a quid pro quo, he hints that if the referendum is delayed, the Kurds may not be inclined to support a law ensuring central government control and revenue sharing of Iraq’s oil wealth, which Washington considers critical to Iraq’s political reconciliation. At least some Iraq watchers believe that Talabani may yet get his way. 'The U.S. has found it very hard to go against stuff in the constitution,' said Patrick Clawson, a Middle East expert and deputy director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 'I am not as convinced that this can be easily postponed.'"

The referendum on Kirkuk is supposed to take place by the end of the year. Given the current US domestic political environment, it's unlikely the Democratic Congress would stomach such a lengthy delay on passage of the hydrocarbons law without re-doubling efforts to withdraw American troops.