Trump gives Turkish president Erdogan a warm welcome at the White House

(November 14) Trump welcomed Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to the White House on Wednesday, Trump's warm welcome included the president saying he was a "big fan" of Erdogan.

As a recent article notes Erdogan's warm welcome took place in spite of the Turkish invasion of the so-called safe zone along its border with Syria: "Turkey's recent offensive against a key U.S. ally in Syria did not stop President Trump from honoring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a White House visit and joint press conference. Throughout the afternoon on Wednesday, the president had approving words for the authoritarian leader, whose military invaded northern Syria and forced out America's Kurdish allies. "

On Syria even Trump threatened that he could destroy the entire Turkish economy on a moment's notice. However any such discourse was carefully avoided in the meeting with Erdogan.

As reported in a recent article Trump's position on Turkey and Syria has hardly been consistent: "Trump ordered U.S. troops stationed in the border area to withdraw ahead of the Turkish invasion, while exhorting Erdogan in an extraordinarily undiplomatic letter to avoid too much bloodshed.“Don’t be a tough guy. Don’t be a fool!” Trump wrote in the letter, which was reportedly thrown by Erdogan into the trash."

Lawmakers of both parties critical of Erdogan

The Turkish invasion of Syria was criticized by a number of US lawmakers both Republican and Democrat.

A motion by the US Congress has also condemned the Turkish role in the Armenian genocide a resolution Erodgan has condemned as a grave insult to Turkey.

Earlier this week some members of the US Congress sent Trump a letter urging he cancel the visit: "Earlier this week, a group of Democratic and Republican members of the House of Representatives sent a letter to Trump calling on him to cancel Erdogan’s invitation to the White House. The letter, which was led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel, expressed frustration with both Erdogan’s domestic and foreign policy agenda. "

However, Trump was careful not to bring up any topic disagreeable to Erdogan. Erdogan so far seems not to be looking to pick fights with Congress while he is in the US, and just focus on all the praise Trump has to offer.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Turkey with rebel allies prepare for offensive against Kurds in Syria

About 20,000 members of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with Turkish troops who support them are reported to be massing for a new military operation in the Afrin region of northwestern Syria.

The region is under control of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) according to the Turkish newspaper Sabah. The YPG are regarded as a terrorist group by Turkey but at key allies in the battle against the Islamic State by the United States. The first targets of the operation are said to be the town of Tall Rigat and the nearby Minaq airbase the newspaper claims. The offensive is to be launched from Idlib westward and Azaz, Kaljibrin and Marea eastward. Turkey is said to be consulting with Moscow on the operation. On Sunday Turkish President Recep Tayyip is to hold talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The Afrin area is located in the province of Aleppo and belongs to what the Kurds consider the autonomous area of Rojava in the north of Syria. Back in late August of 2016 Turkish forces together with their Free Syrian Army with US-led coalition air support cleared out the Islamic State from the town of Jarabulus on the border and also from the surrounding areas. The operation was called the Euphrates Shield. Both the Kurds and the Assad regime were critical of the operation. After Jarabulus was retaken the offensive continued to the southwest. The city of al-Bab was taken. The campaign ended March 29 and the goals of the operation were said to be met.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Veysi Kaynak said: "Afrin needs to be cleared of terrorists with regard to both Turkey's security and the region's security. Turkey is continuing to work with its counterparts to achieve this end. Otherwise nobody can guarantee the security of Azaz, Mare, al-Bab and Idlib. Turkey's diplomatic efforts are continuing to this end." The terrorists in this case are the YPG not the Islamic State. The Turks are said to have moved long-range artillery into the region.

A Syrian Kurdish YPG commander, Sipan Hemo, claims that they want to "liberate" the area between Azaz and Jarablus that is held by the FSA backed by Turkish troops. Hemo did not give any details of the YPG plan or say when it would begin. Although the Turkey-backed rebels seized the area from the Islamic State Hemo said he regarded Turkey as an occupying force in the area. Hemo's statement was distributed on a social network feed by Naser Manour a senior official in the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The YPG is a key component of the SDF. There was already an exchange of fire between Turkey and the YPG near Azaz last Tuesday, Turkey claims it is sending more troops, vehicles and equipment into the area in preparation for its own offensive. Kurdish officials warn that any attack on the area by the Turks and its allies will distract from their offensive against Raqqa still held mostly by the Islamic State.

US provides Kurds in Syria with wepapons to the dismay of Turkey

President Donald Trump has decided to provide the YPG Kurds in Syria with weapons. The YPG or People's Protection Units are key allies in fighting the Islamic State but are regarded as terrorists by the Turks.

The Turks worry that the Kurds will establish an independent or autonomous Kurdish area on the northern border of Syria with Turkey. This may provide Kurds in Turkey more encouragement to establish more autonomy or even independence in adjacent Kurdish areas of the Turkey. The arms are intended to help the YPG and its Arab allies carry out an offensive against Raqqa the de facto capital of the Islamic State in Syria. The Turks were hoping that they would be involved in the offensive. U.S. troops are helping out the Kurds. The YPG is part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) a multi-ethnic force that includes Arabs. The group has just recently captured the town of Tabqa and the adjacent dam. The U.S. is to send heavy machine guns, anti-tank weapons, armored cars, and engineering equipment to help out with the offensive against Raqqa.

Turkey has tried to get the U.S. to break off its alliance with the Syrian Kurds as it considers the YPG group key members of the Syrian Democratic as terrorists and simply an arm of the Kurdistan Worker's Party that both the U.S. and Turkey classify as terrorists. However, the U.S. does not classify the YPG as terrorist and consider them key fighters against the IS as part of the SDF. As discussed in a recent Digital Journal, Turkey wants the U.S. to reverse its decision immediately. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavasoglu said: Both the PKK and the YPG are terrorist organisations and they are no different, apart from their names. Every weapon seized by them is a threat to Turkey.”

Trump has long claimed he gives priority to defeating the Islamic State and he has agreed to a long-delayed plan to capture Raqqa using the forces of the SDF. They are said to have 45,000 fighters in all with 13,000 of them Arabs. It has often defeated the IS when supported by U.S. air strikes as well as advisers on the ground. The U.S. also hopes that Mosul in Iraq can also be captured soon dealing the IS a double blow.

Turkey has itself sent troops to help out anti-Assad forces but also to try and stop the expansion of Kurdish influence. While the use of Turkish ground troops to capture territory west of the Euphrates has had some success. The U.S. has been wary of asking for help from Turkey in the offensive against Raqqa as it suspects that Turkey is more interesting in ensuring that the Kurds control no more territory rather than fighting the Islamic State. The Turks are also quite anxious to keep pressure on the Assad regime whereas the Kurds appear to have little interest in doing this.

Turkey has already back on April 25th attacked Kurdish positions and killed 20 fighters and threatened similar actions. The U.S. was angered and called the Turkish air strikes unacceptable and sent U.S. troops to the Raqqa area so that Turkey would not possibly attack Kurdish troops there and it also set up patrols on the Syrian side of the border. Trump's decision to arm the Kurds may make it difficult for Turkey to keep up a military campaign against the YPG in Syria and will give the group more influence.

Turkish president Erdogan is to meet with Trump on the May 16 and 17. The meeting could be filled with conflict but Trump is unpredictable. However, as of now there appears to be little likelihood that he will reverse his policy just because Erdogan wants him to do so. Trump may attempt to reassure Turkey that the weapons sent to the Kurds will be limited and will be used only against the Islamic State. However, the Turks may rightfully doubt that it will be impossible to make sure this happens. The Kurds, for their part, also worry that once the Islamic State is defeated the U.S. will have no use for them and will ally themselves more closely with Turkish interests.

Kurdish flag flown over government buildings in Iraq city of Kirkuk

The province of Kirkuk in Iraq has just voted for a referendum to determine if the region will join the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) or remain part of the Baghdad government.

The vote was held by members of the Kirkuk provincial council on April 4. The move is seen as likely to increase tensions between the KRG and many in the region. The referendum decision comes just a week after the council voted in favor of flying the Kurdish flag on municipal buildings in the city of Kirkuk. The Turkmen minority in the city protested the flag-raising. Arab members of the provincial council boycotted the vote on the referendum. Najmaldin Karim, Kirkuk's governor, said: "If there is a referendum for Kurdistan, that should include Kirkuk as well. We have a lot of grievances with Baghdad. It’s a strong, centralized and inefficient, incompetent administration. Baghdad is very controlling, and the constitution says Iraq should be federal." Kurds have long claimed Kirkuk and the huge oil reserves in the area and after the Iraqi army retreated, Kurdish peshmerga ended up in control of the area.

There is supposed to be a referendum on the status of Kirkuk. Karim believes such a vote should be included on any referendum vote on independence for Kurdistan. As of now, the KRG is autonomous within the Iraqi government based in Baghdad. Many observers in Baghdad see the referendum vote and the flag flying as unilateral moves designed to annex Kirkuk with its oil wealth to the KRG. On Saturday, the Iraqi parliament voted to repeal the decision to fly the KRG flag over municipal buildings in Kirkuk.

Recep Erdogan, Turkish President, warned the council that raising the KRG over government buildings could lead to strained relations with Turkey. Erdogan wants to be seen as a protector of the Turkmen minority in the area. He may also be concerned about the Kurds gaining any more territory in the area. Iran also complained about the Kurdish action calling it unconstitutional. Iran also has areas dominated by Kurds.

The Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi asked that the Kurdish flags be taken down and to work on Iraqi unity. The acting head of the council claims that they have the constitutional right to fly the flag because the federal government has not yet followed through with Article 140 of the Iraq constitution that would have a referendum settle disputed areas such as Kirkuk.

Al-Abadi told a Kurdish website: "As you know, for a time now there has been talk that Iraq will split into three regions of Kurds, Shias and Sunnis. But that is totally objectionable. We are serious about Iraq’s territorial integrity."

Turkish President Erdogan said: "We don't agree with the claim 'Kirkuk is for the Kurds' at all. Kirkuk is for the Turkmen, Arabs and Kurds, if they are there. Do not enter into a claim it's yours or the price will be heavy. You will harm dialogue with Turkey. Bring that flag down immediately, "

Turkish forces kill 48 Islamic State fighters in Syrian town of al-Bab

More than four months ago, Turkish air and ground forces launched Operation Euphrates on behalf of Syrian rebels to drive Islamic State(IS) or ISIS forces from the Turkish border.

In a statement on Monday, Turkey's armed forces announced that they had killed 48 militants on Sunday. Turkish warplanes claimed to have destroyed 25 buildings and shelters used by IS. During recent weeks, the Turks have been besieging the strategic town of al-Bab. Al-Bab is the last major town held by IS in Aleppo province. Several times a week Turkey has been issuing reports claiming that dozens of IS fighters had been killed. The reports leave open the question as to exactly how many IS fighters remain in the town of about 60,000. The reports do not usually mention civilian casualties and rarely report their own casualties or those of rebels. However, on the enclosed video the Turks do report on civilian casualties.

Turkey has been asking for increased U.S. air support to help it out. The Pentagon wants to avoid increasing tensions with Turkey as it is quite dependent on the Incirlik air base for its operations in Syria. The Pentagon began air flights over the city but so far has not launched any air attacks. Already Russian airstrikes have supported the offensive in the surrounding area. The U.S. is now carrying out what it calls "aerial intelligence surveillance" in the area to help the Turkish forces. Earlier, the U.S. sent one plane over the city and called it a "show of force". The low level of support given by the U.S. compared to Russia is a sore spot for Turkey.

The Turks with their rebel allies have now taken most of the territory west of the Euphrates formerly held by the Islamic State. The territory has been handed over to a coalition of rebel forces. The U.S. is worried that the Turks will confront Kurdish YPG forces that the U.S. supports. Turkish officials say they will move on to take Manbij, a city along the Euphrates under control of the YPG.

In spite of the fact that the U.S. is now mounting a number of aerial surveillance flights, officials are said to worry about ensuring that they do not clash with Turkish or Russian flights. A defense official said: “Flying anywhere in Syria is complicated. Flying up in that area where everyone seems to be flying would require some work. I wouldn’t say we aren’t worried about it.”

The U.S. is considering sending direct weapons shipments to Kurdish YPG forces advancing on Raqqa, the IS de facto capital. The Turks consider the group a terrorist organization and are opposed to any such move. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that ceasing to cooperate with the YPG was one of two main expectations Turkey had of the United States. The other was that the U.S. would extradite Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the US, to Turkey where he would face charges that the orchestrated the recent coup attempt.

The Turkish President Recep Erdogan said that he thought that U.S.-Turkish relations would gain momentum once Trump was inaugurated on January 20. Trump's designated national security adviser Michael Flynn wrote an op-ed that the U.S. should agree to extradite Gulen and stop criticism of Turkey whom he considered a key ally. As Turkey's relations with Russia improve, under Trump Turkish relations with the United States may also show some improvement.