U.S. fears Iraq election violence could slow pullout.

Certainly the US will, in spite of its denial, try to influence the horsetrading after the election. They already tried their best but unsuccessfully to derail Ahmed Chalabi's ban on many candidates. There is increasing violent and it would seem that Al Qaeda and allied groups are more active. It may be that they are being joined by disgruntled Sunnis.

U.S. Fears Election Strife in Iraq Could Affect Pullout


By HELENE COOPER and MARK LANDLER


WASHINGTON — The deadly suicide bombings in Iraq on Wednesday highlight the central quandary facing President Obama as he tries to fulfill his campaign pledge to end the war there: Will parliamentary elections, scheduled for Sunday, throw the country back into the sectarian strife that flared in 2004 and delay the planned American withdrawal?

Notes from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and other areas of conflict in the post-9/11 era. Go to the Blog »
Related

Murky Candidacy Stokes Iraq’s Sectarian Fears (March 4, 2010)
Bombers Kill Dozens as Iraq Vote Nears (March 4, 2010)
Times Topic: Iraq Elections
Senior Obama administration officials maintained in interviews this week that Mr. Obama’s plan to withdraw all American combat troops by Sept. 1 would remain on track regardless of who cobbles together a governing coalition after the election. Under the plan, no more than 50,000 American forces would stay behind, mostly in advisory roles. (Now there are slightly more than 90,000 troops in the country, down from 124,000 in September.)

But administration officials also acknowledged that the bigger worry for the United States was not who would win the elections, but the possibility that the elections — and their almost certainly messy aftermath — could ignite violence that would, at the least, complicate the planned withdrawal.

In part for that reason, “we’re not leaving behind cooks and quartermasters,” Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said Wednesday in a telephone interview. The bulk of the remaining American troops, he said, “will still be guys who can shoot straight and go get bad guys.”

Gen. Ray Odierno, the top American military commander in Iraq, has drawn up a contingency plan that would keep a combat brigade in northern Iraq beyond the Sept. 1 deadline, should conditions warrant, administration officials said. Kirkuk and the restive Kurdish area in the north remain major concerns for American military planners.


At a time when Mr. Obama has already angered his liberal base by ramping up the number of American troops in Afghanistan and missing his own deadline to shut down the military prison in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, even the appearance that he has fudged the troop drawdown in Iraq could set off a rebellion as Democrats face difficult midterm elections.

T
With no party expected to get a majority, or even a strong plurality, analysts foresee intense horse trading, with factions like the Kurds trying to play kingmaker as diverse groups attempt to cobble together coalitions.

Mr. Hill emphasized that the United States did not want to get drawn into postelection wrangling among Kurdish, Shiite or Sunni parties. He and General Odierno have already been criticized in some quarters in Iraq for speaking about Iran’s influence in the election process.

“Assuming that everything is going to go off fine, we will execute our withdrawal as we advertised,” Gen. James L. Jones, the national security adviser, said Tuesday in an interview. It would take a “proactive national decision” by Mr. Obama to divert from the withdrawal plan, he said, adding, “The military always thinks through different options in how we might react.”

Thom Shanker and Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting.

Civilian Deaths peak in Iraq in February

It would seem that violence is increasing in Iraq before the upcoming elections. There may be attempts to disrupt the election process itself. The ban on many Sunni candidates probably no doubt is helping to increase the violence. The election process does not seem to be leading to more stability but the opposite. The security situation may even make the US think twice about the withdrawing all its troops. This is from antiwar. com.

Iraq Civilian Deaths Spiked in February
Posted By Jason Ditz

Speaking today at Vanderbilt University, Gen. David Petraeus lauded the security situation in Iraq as “greatly improved,” saying that violence had dropped but serious threats remain.

Yet while the narrative of the improving situation in Iraq is a very popular one, Iraqi civilian deaths actually jumped dramatically over the past month, with 211 civilians killed in February alone, up from 135 in January.

In addition to the civilian deaths, Iraqi ministers say that 141 members of the nation’s security forces were killed, also a major increase over the previous month. Civilian violence mostly centered around Shi’ite pilgrims and Iraq’s small Christian minority.

Violence is expected to continue to rise this month, as militant groups look to disrupt next weekend’s parliament election. Once the election is over, officials are predicting another surge in violence as the various factions bicker over the formation of a coalition government.

Ahmed Chalabi Rides Again in Iraq

Ryan Crocker may be correct about Chalabi's motivation that he is an opportunist and a nationalist--although his nationalism is pro-Shia and anti Sunni it would seem. However, he seems to be more interested in his own political advantage rather than anything else and he has been consistently anti Baath party. This made him a darling of the US before the US invasion and occupation. He was one of the foremost purveyors of false intelligence about Weapons of Mass Destruction. Rather than being no one's agent Chalabi is an agent for whichever group can advance his own agenda. When he was the darling of the US he was probably also working with Iran. Now he also may be working with Iran. However, should allying with Iran prove a hindrance he will drop the relationship in a moment. If there were a game of survivor among politicians Chalabi would probably win a gold medal!

Ahmed Chalabi's renewed influence in Iraq concerns U.S.
By Ernesto Londoño and Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service

BAGHDAD -- Ahmed Chalabi, the onetime U.S. ally, is in the limelight again, and his actions are proving no less controversial than they did years ago.

On the eve of Iraq's parliamentary elections, Chalabi is driving an effort aimed at weeding out candidates tied to Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. Chalabi is reprising a role he played after the U.S.-led invasion -- which many critics believe he helped facilitate with faulty intelligence -- and, in the process, is infuriating American officials and some Iraqis, who suspect his motive is to bolster his own political bloc.

Chalabi, a Shiite, has defended the work of the commission he is leading as legal and crucial during a period of transition to Iraq's first sovereign government. But his reemergence on the political scene has rankled U.S. officials and fueled concerns that Sunnis and other secular Iraqis will be marginalized.

Some Iraqi and U.S. officials think Chalabi might have his eyes on the ultimate prize, however unlikely he can attain it.

"Even if it kills him, he's going to stay in Iraq to try to become prime minister," said Ezzat Shahbandar, a Shiite lawmaker from a competing slate who has known Chalabi for more than 20 years. "This issue is the only tool he has, because he has nothing else going for him."

Chalabi fell out of favor with the Americans in 2004, after they accused him of spying for Iran. The year before, though, he had been appointed to head a U.S.-formed commission to rid the government of officials tied to Hussein's regime.

The hasty, wholesale purge that the commission conducted is now widely seen as a catalyst of the insurgency and Iraq's sectarian war. Today, however, Chalabi remains at the helm of a similar "de-Baathification" panel, the Justice and Accountability Commission, because parliament has not appointed new members.

When the commission recently announced the disqualification of nearly 500 candidates from the March 7 parliamentary elections, critics noted that candidates from Sunni-led and mixed secular coalitions were disproportionately targeted. Many of those ousted were rivals of Chalabi's bloc.

A court impaneled to review the cases carried out a cursory review behind closed doors. Candidates were allowed to submit written appeals but were never told the specific nature of the allegations against them. The court disqualified 145 candidates; most others dropped out or their parties replaced them.

Now the disqualifications are widening sectarian and religious divides in Iraq, even as it continues to reel from decades of authoritarian rule, occupation and bloodshed. This week, in an apparent attempt to allay some of the bitterness, the government said it would reinstate 20,000 former army officers ousted because of their ties to Hussein.

But the political disqualifications threaten to undermine the elections, overshadowing campaign issues such as security, unemployment and basic services.

At the center of it all is Chalabi.

In campaign posters, Chalabi, a onetime Iraqi exile, bills himself as "the Destroyer of the symbols of the Baath." Placards for other candidates on his political slate, the Iraqi National Alliance, are graced with the words "No space for the Baath," written in crimson letters that suggest blood.

The alliance is a Shiite coalition of parties whose most prominent figures are former Iraqi exiles in the current government. Those parties did poorly in provincial elections in January 2009.

"The provincial elections showed the limits of the appeal of sectarianism," a senior Western diplomat said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid analysis. By fanning fears of the return of the Baathists, the official added, "they may be hoping that Baathism will help them get past that limit."

Chalabi, 65, comes from an elite Baghdad family. He formed the Iraqi National Congress, an opposition group, in the early 1990s with U.S. backing.

He has long had a strong relationship with Iran. But he became close to the CIA and the Pentagon in the run-up to the invasion, as U.S. officials used his group to muster opposition against Hussein. The U.S. government funneled millions to his group, which provided it with intelligence reports that later proved to be erroneous. In 2004, Chalabi was a guest of President George W. Bush at the State of the Union address.

Many Iraqi Shiite politicians have little regard for Chalabi because he left in the late 1950s, avoiding authoritarian rule. Many of his peers were imprisoned, tortured and forced into exile.

Despite his lack of popular support, Chalabi has remained relevant. Even his rivals allow that he has keen political instincts, a sharp mind and a knack for influencing powerful people. He also does not shy from controversy.

This week, his deputy on the commission, Ali Faisal al-Lami, said hundreds of officials in Iraq's intelligence, army and police agencies are subject to dismissal for links to the Baath Party.

"We believe there are thousands of others who will be found," he said in an interview. "These measures will seriously enhance security in Iraq by dismissing any bad elements that carry the Baath ideology."

If that effort gains traction in the weeks ahead, U.S. officials say, political violence could very well follow. U.S. commanders could also suddenly lose key Iraqi officers who they have trained and mentored over the years.

"They will try to get rid of pro-U.S. generals, but more importantly, they are stacking the deck with pro-Iranian officers, which will damage U.S. long-term interests in the long run," a senior U.S. military official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he is not allowed to talk to reporters. "This is why many neighboring Arab countries aren't so happy about us modernizing the Iraqi military with some of the latest equipment."

Chalabi did not respond to calls, e-mails and text messages seeking an interview. In a recent statement, he said his commission was "carrying out its legal, moral and nationalistic duty to protect the political process against infiltration by the Saddamist Baathists."

Ryan C. Crocker, who served as U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2007 until last year, said Chalabi is no one's "agent."

"He's an opportunist and he's a nationalist," Crocker said, "and he will use whatever vehicle or platform that presents itself to further his own agenda."

Special correspondent K.I. Ibrahim contributed to this report.

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More Deaths in Iraq as election nears

It will be June at least until more US troops will withdraw and it remains to be seen if that will actually happen if violence continues. At least the ban on 500 candidates has been withdrawn so there is less likelihood of a Sunni boycott of the election. There is supposed to be a vote on the SOFA agreement at the same time but that is never mentioned.


News From Antiwar.com - http://news.antiwar.com -

Rising Death Tolls as Iraq Nears Election

Posted By Jason Ditz
A relatively calm January in Iraq, which saw death tolls drop nearly in half compared to a violent December, gave hope to many that predictions of violence before the March election would continue to rise would not hold true.

That optimism has given way to a sense of helplessness however, following an inauspicious start to February. In the first three days already nearly 100 Iraqis have been killed, mostly on the back of a pair of massive bombings against Arba’een pilgrims.

The largest attack was Monday against pilgrims traveling from Baghdad to Karbala. Today a pair of attacks hit Karbala itself, targeting more Shi’ite pilgrims. Concerns linger that the Shi’ite-led government remains unable to provide sufficient security for pilgrims, despite committing tens of thousands of troops to the task.

US officials have said that troop levels will remain flat in the nation, at somewhat over 100,000, until 60 days after the March vote. A rising death toll could further complicate the pullout, and add to pressure for the US to keep troops in the nation

Iraq election law delays decision on Kirkuk

Note that the new law also includes voting for individuals rather than having closed lists. According to Juan Cole the referendum on SOFA will also be held at the same time. The mainstream press nevers talks about this. Don't be surprised is some time between now and the elections this referendum will be postponed once again. According to the SOFA agreement it was to be held last August!

Iraq election law delays decision on flash points

Iraq election law sidesteps controversy over disputed city of Kirkuk

RYAN LUCAS
AP News

After weeks of hard-nosed negotiations, analysts say the election law passed by Iraq's parliament allowing national polls to go forward in January extends compromises to all sides but with key concessions to the Kurds.

However, analysts warn the bill also sidesteps a decision on the ultimate fate of Kirkuk — a city claimed by both Kurds and Arabs that had been a major stumbling block to the law's passage — and ensures more battles over the city in the future.

"Because there was pressure to pass the law and have the election, they are just pushing this issue under the carpet," said Mustafa Alani from the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "I don't see a clear solution to this problem here."

Haggling over Kirkuk had repeatedly stalled the law's passage, and further delay threatened to undermine Iraq's fledgling democracy and derail a U.S. plan to withdraw its troops.

Kurds consider Kirkuk a Kurdish city and want it incorporated into their self-ruled region in northern Iraq, something the Arab-led central government adamantly opposes.

Under former dictator Saddam Hussein, tens of thousands of Kurds were kicked out of the city to make Kirkuk predominantly Arab. Since Saddam's fall, thousands of Kurds have flooded back, but Arabs claim there are more than ever before.

The legislation passed Sunday allows the vote in Kirkuk to be held just like in other regions around the country. However, if lawmakers suspect there was a more than 5 percent annual increase in population in a disputed area, including Kirkuk, they can vote to create a committee to investigate and eventually contest the election results in a given district.

This solution addresses Arab and Turkomen claims that Kurds have packed the city in an attempt to tip the scales.

But analysts say the Kurds also notched a victory by having the elections carried out on the basis of 2009 voter lists, which likely reflect Kurdish increases in the city, instead of the 2004 records that Arabs have generally favored.

"I think probably the Kurds won out on this one," said Marina Ottoway of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for Peace. "I think it will be very difficult to invalidate the election."

The law specifies the way the Kirkuk issue was settled will not be binding for future decisions on the disputed city. However, the legislation appears to set the stage for further disputes over interpretation and implementation of the law.

On Monday, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission submitted a proposal to Iraq's presidency council to hold the elections on Jan. 21, five days after the previously scheduled date, commission chief Faraj al-Haidari said. It must now be approved by the presidential council.

The commission also determined there should be 323 seats in the next parliament, up from 275, Al-Haidari said.

U.S. officials had followed the election debate closely for any sign it might affect the withdrawal of American combat troops, which Washington has tied to the vote. After the vote, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq said the drawdown was on schedule.

Under President Barack Obama's plan, all combat troops will leave the country by the end of August 2010. The remaining 50,000 trainers and support troops would leave by the end of 2011.

With violence down sharply nationwide, Washington now hopes the January vote will help bolster Iraq's fragile democracy. While many Iraqis are happy with the improved security situation, frustrations remain over the lingering violence, corruption and poor public services.

The U.S. pushed hard Sunday for lawmakers to reach a compromise on the legislation. And while the deal may not be perfect for everyone, all of Iraq's major political groupings appear at least satisfied with it and have said they will take part in the elections.

That stands in stark contrast to Iraq's first post-invasion parliamentary vote in January 2005, when Sunnis boycotted the polls, which helped fuel anger and a spiraling insurgency and bloodshed that engulfed the country for two years.

"They all seem to be happy — in that sense it does seem to be a true compromise," said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group.

___

Iraq Election Law still not final..

While the non-election in Afghanistan captures news headlines the lack of an election law in Iraq is little noticed by the media. The law is already overdue and if the law is not finalised very soon the election will need to be postponed. This may then effect the decision as to how many US troops to withdraw. There is no mention of the SOFA referendum that is also supposed to take place at the same time. The US has been trying to sabotage this. It was supposed to take place last August but under pressure from the US it did not take place then at all even though it was part of the agreement.

Antiwar.com
Iraq Election Body: Finalize Law by Tuesday or Vote May Be Delayed

Posted By Jason Ditz On November 1, 2009 @ 6:19 pm In Uncategorized 2 Comments

The deadlines for Iraq’s January elections appear to continue to come and go with little movement from the nation’s parliament. Already weeks removed from missing the official “deadline” for passing an election law, a warning from the UN that they needed to have the law finalized by today also passed without a vote.

The requirement to have the law in place 90 days before the January 16 vote is long gone, but Iraq’s election authority is now warning that they absolutely must have the deal finalized by Tuesday to have any reasonable chance of holding the vote on time.

But the various factions in Iraq’s parliament remain far apart and despite MPs repeatedly declaring their opposition to a delay it seems hard to imagine they can pass the law by Tuesday.

Not only must they work out a way for Iraqis to vote for individual candidates, as top clerics are opposed to making Iraqis vote on anonymous lists like last time, but they have to settle a Kirkuk dispute that has been growing for years.

The status of the oil-rich city is increasingly in dispute. Though the city has been occupied by Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs alike for centuries, the Kurdistan regional government maintains it is a uniquely Kurdish city and wants to annex it. The Arabs and Turkmen oppose this, as it would make them a very unwelcome minority in the autonomous region. The law governing the Kirkuk vote could either be a big win for Kurdistan’s ambitions on the region, or a bitter defeat. This has already led Kurdish MPs to boycott a prospective vote.

This is hardly going to be sorted out in the next 48 hours, but once a delay in the election, seemingly inevitable, is finalized, the question of its impact on the US troop drawdown will come increasingly into focus.

Iraq Hydrocarbons law delayed until after Jan. election.

The oil law was one of the famous benchmarks for progress ages ago but there is still no federal law. Kurdistan went ahead with its own law and has a number of foreign contracts that have not been approved by the Iraqi federal government. As the article notes there was an auction of contracts for technical support but few oil giants bid since they are waiting for better terms and an ownership stake. No doubt after the elections whichever party is in power will try to sell out to the big oil powers. However, before they do that they will have to solve the standoff between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq as to who controls what and how revenues will be shared.

Iraq delays hydrocarbons law until after election: MP

BAGHDAD (AFP) – Iraq has delayed the discussion of a stalled hydrocarbons law, seen as key to the country ramping up its oil production, until after parliamentary elections in January, a senior MP said on Saturday.
The proposed law, which would regulate the oil sector and divide responsibility between the central government in Baghdad and Iraq's provinces, has been held up for three years due to disagreements between MPs from the country's majority Shia and minority Sunni, Kurd and other communities.
"There is no agreement on the contents of the oil law ... because this government wants the management of the oil sector to be centralised," said Ali Hussein Balo, a Kurd and chairman of the parliamentary oil and gas committee.
"Due to these conflicts, we have decided to delay the oil law enactment until after the election," he told AFP.
Iraq hopes to be able to pump six million barrels per day, up from current output of around 2.5 million, within the next four to five years as new projects come online, Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani has said.
The country has the world's third-largest proven reserves of oil, with more than 115 billion barrels, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iran.
But investment in Iraq's ageing energy infrastructure has been hampered by delays to the hydrocarbons law.
When the government auctioned eight major energy contracts in June, only energy giants BP and China's CNPC won a bid, agreeing to receive only two dollars a barrel to operate the giant Rumaila field, which has known reserves of 17.7 billion barrels.
It was the first big upstream deal between Iraq and foreign oil majors since nationalisation of the country's oil production about four decades ago.
The second round of bidding for Iraqi oil contracts is due in the first half of December, Shahristani said last month.
Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.

Al-Sadr's followers eye comeback in Jan 31 vote.

This is from AP.

It seems that the Sadrist movement was weakened by factionalism. Sadr seems to have gone off to Iran to meditate when he should have been leading his movement in Iraq. However, perhaps his movement will recoup some of its losses in these elections. Sadr seemed to sit back and allow the US and Iraq to attack and arrest any factions that did not go along with his own leadership.



Al-Sadr's followers eye comeback in Jan. 31 vote
By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writers Hamza Hendawi And Qassim Abdul-zahra, Associated Press Writers – Sun Jan 18, 5:26 pm ET
AP – A poster depicting radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr shares space with campaign posters for candidates …

AMARAH, Iraq – Followers of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr hope to win back their position as a major force in this month's regional elections after a string of military and political setbacks last year.
Even modest success in the Jan. 31 vote for ruling provincial councils could position the Sadrists as coalition partners in key southern provinces, where a large number of candidates makes it unlikely any single party can win on its own.
Anything short of that could relegate the once formidable al-Sadr to political irrelevance — something unthinkable a year ago when his fearsome Mahdi Army militia wielded vast power in Shiite areas of Iraq.
"This month's elections will decide who remains in the political arena and who will go into oblivion," said senior Sadrist lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie. "If we fail to do well, our movement could fragment, and some of its key figures could be lured away by rival blocs trying to destroy us."
Top Sadrist officials in key southern cities — Basra, Amarah and Najaf — spoke confidently about their election prospects during interviews with The Associated Press.
But they fear that authorities may step up arrests of al-Sadr's supporters and campaign workers in response to his call for attacks on U.S. forces in retaliation for Israel's offensive in Gaza.
The Sadrists also face a strong threat from the country's two largest Shiite parties — the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and the Dawa party of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Both are vigorously campaigning to retain their grip on the south and prevent any inroads by al-Sadr's group, which has been significantly weakened since the heady days when it held sway in Shiite areas of Baghdad and southern Iraq.
Hundreds of its key members have been detained by U.S. and Iraqi forces over the past two years — especially after the government crackdown on militias in Baghdad and Basra last spring.
The Mahdi Army, which battled the Americans for years, has been riveted with divisions. The militiamen's former image as the defender of the Shiites has been tarnished among many urban Shiites who consider them gangsters.
The Sadrists' best chance for success could be in Amarah, an oil-rich area near the Iranian border that had been controlled by the cleric's followers before the crackdown last year. The Sadrists remain in control of the provincial council of Maysan, the province of which Amarah is the capital.
"The Sadrist movement will be in a bad situation if we lose Amarah," said Hassan al-Husseini, al-Sadr's chief representative in Amarah, 200 miles (320 kilometers) southeast of Baghdad.
"But other groups are determined to oust us from Amarah," he said, squatting on the floor beneath a larger-than-life portrait of al-Sadr's father, Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, who was gunned down by suspected Saddam Hussein agents in 1999.
As in previous elections, no candidates are running explicitly as followers of al-Sadr. They are nominally independent — but the movement makes sure that voters know which candidates it supports.
Winning about a third of the council seats in the nine southern provinces would be considered a success, said Salah al-Obeidi, al-Sadr's chief spokesman. The movement wants to prevent the other Shiite parties from winning enough seats to monopolize power, he said.
"Our ultimate goal is not to allow governors to do as they please," al-Obeidi said at his Najaf office.
The Sadrists, whose movement began in the 1990s, emerged as a formidable political and social force after U.S. troops overthrew Saddam's Sunni-dominated regime in 2003.
They survived a 2004 uprising against the Americans after the powerful Shiite clergy intervened to prevent al-Sadr's arrest. Al-Maliki's predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, brought Sadrists into the government, giving them several Cabinet posts.
But the Sadrists did not field a full slate of candidates in the last provincial elections four years ago, leaving the south to the Supreme Council, Dawa and regional groups.
Two years ago, it appeared that the Sadrists, who draw strength from millions of impoverished Shiites, would threaten the position of the two major Shiite parties because of complaints of bad governance in the south.
But a series of missteps cost the movement dearly.
Sadrist ministers pulled out of al-Maliki's Cabinet in 2007 to protest his cooperation with the U.S., depriving the movement much of its influence in government. The move also angered al-Maliki, who ordered U.S.-backed Iraqi forces last year into Basra, the Baghdad district of Sadr City and other areas to wrest control from al-Sadr's militia.
Al-Sadr himself moved to Iran two years ago, weakening his leadership at a time his movement needed him most.
The Sadrists' appeal to voters has been their uncompromising anti-American stand, social welfare programs for the poor and the prestige of al-Sadr's late father, who defended Shiite rights when few would speak out under Saddam.
"We are proud of our opposition to the (U.S.) occupation," said Ayed al-Mayahi, al-Sadr's representative in Basra. "Everything that has happened to us was the price we paid for that stand."

Iraq parliament passes poll law, Kurds walk out.

This is from Reuters.
This is bound to create trouble unless the issue is resolved. Already it is almost too late for elections this year apparently. The Sunnis could become restless again and also Sadr who was counting on doing well in the upcoming electi0n.l


Iraq's parliament passes poll law, Kurds walk out
Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:12pm BST

By Waleed IbrahimBAGHDAD, July 22 (Reuters)
Iraq's parliament passed a provincial elections bill on Tuesday, but a walkout by Kurdish lawmakers over how to deal with the disputed oil city of Kirkuk could mean the law will not be ratified by the presidency.Kurds make up one of three main groups, and their boycott of the vote means the bill could be sent back to parliament.The law is meant to pave the way for polls seen as vital to reconciling Iraq's Sunni Arabs, who boycotted the last provincial elections in 2005, with its other communities."Today parliament passed the provincial elections law, in the absence of the Kurdish alliance, which walked out," Hanin Qado, a lawmaker from the ruling Shi'ite alliance, told Reuters.Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Khalid al-Attiya cast doubt on whether a law passed without the Kurds present would even be ratified by Iraq's presidency council -- which must approve all laws -- headed by President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd."We cannot have a vote with an absence of a whole faction. The vote is useless. It will be rejected by the representatives of this bloc and by the presidency council," he said. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki wants the election to take place on Oct. 1, but the Electoral Commission says it will not have time to organise it by then, even with the law in place.Faraj al-Haidari, head of the commission, told Reuters on Tuesday he could not start implementing the election law until it was approved by the presidency council. He reiterated a warning that time was running out to hold polls this year, because the commission needed time to prepare.The law had been held up by a dispute over what to do about voting in multi-ethnic Kirkuk, where a dispute is simmering between Kurds who say the city should belong to the largely autonomous Kurdistan region and Arabs who want it to stay under central government authority.Arabs and Turkmen believe Kurds have stacked the city with Kurds since the downfall of Saddam in 2003 to try to tip the demographic balance in their favour in any vote.Arabs encouraged to move there under Saddam Hussein's rule fear the vote will consolidate Kurdish power and they sought to postpone it, a proposal Kurdish politicians have rejected.Parliament decided to postpone the vote and add another article that the Kurds found unacceptable: that each ethnic or sectarian group gets a set allocation of seats and voting is between individual candidates from those groups. Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen get 10 seats each. Minority Christians get two."We walked out because of the illegality of this article and because the speaker wanted a secret vote, which is not constitutional," said Fouad Masoum, head of the Kurdish bloc.Washington has been urging a speedy provincial election, which it sees as a pillar of national reconciliation, but the poll is also proving a potential flashpoint for tensions.Besides Kirkuk, analysts say the poll will be battleground for a power struggle between Shi'ites in the oil-rich south. (Additional reporting by Mohammed Abbas; Writing by Tim Cocks)