US military official claims that Shia militia groups in Iraq were greater threat than the Islamic State

(January 25)The US Deputy Commander in Iraq and Syria, Major General Alex Grynkewich downplayed the threat posed by ISIS terrorists within Iraq. Instead, he argued that Shiite groups including those not controlled by Iran were the real threat..

Grynkewich's remarks

An article reports on Grynkewich's remarks at a recent event: ""In the time that I have been in Iraq, we've taken a couple of casualties from ISIS fighting on the ground, but most of the attacks have come from those Shia militia groups, who are launching rockets at our bases and frankly just trying to kill someone to make a point," Grynkewich said Wednesday at an event hosted by the Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies." Some of the militias are part of the Iraqi government security forces and he accused them of extorting money from locals in Nineveh province.

Grynkewich noted that there are more than 100 Shiite militia groups in Iraq and he maintains that many of them take orders from Iran. However many are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces that are funded and approved by the Iraqi government and in effect part of their security forces. Grynkewich claims that since the US assassinated top Iranian commander Soleimani former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, elite Quds Force there has been no increased attacks on US troops by Shiite militia. He thinks that with Soleimani gone Iran may not be able to coordinate new attacks on the US. However, that remains to be seen. Iran will no doubt take advantage of the fact that many Iraqis want foreign troops out of Iraq including those of the US.

The decline of ISIS

Grynkewich's remarks suggest that the US is now in Iraq to counter Iranian influence on the Iraqi government. Grynkewich said that ISIS was in survival mode unable to hold significant territory for any length of time. Grynkewich claimed: ""They might have a safe haven on a mountain or in dry stream bed, a wadi system, maybe in some caves; they come out of those at night; go down, shake down some folks; maybe kidnap for extortion; maybe threaten to burn over farmers' fields if they don' turn over crops," Grynkewich said. "And then they retreat back to those supposed safe havens.""

Given that the US is supposed to be in Iraq to counter ISIS now that the ISIS threat is much diminished Iraqis should clearly be capable of dealing with the threat themselves. It seems clear that the US wants troops to remain in Iraq to counter Iranian influence. Ironically, the Iranian influence is due in large part to the US invasion that overthrew Saddam Hussein whose rule involved the dominance of the Sunni majority over the Shia majority population. Now the US does not like the Shia and Iranian influence on its own creation.

The Iraqi parliament has demanded that all foreign troops leave Iraq but the US refuses even to talk about doing so. Given the situation Grynkewich cites the ISIS threat as a reason for the US to stay in Iraq even though he just claimed the threat was not nearly as important as Iranian influence over Iraqi Shia militias. Grynkewich said: ""Over the longer term, the less pressure that is put on ISIS – given that those underlying conditions still exist – we certainly want to get back to providing that overall pressure to keep them down and ensure their enduring defeat."

Previously published in the Digital Journal

US bombing in Syria and Iraq cost $11 billion so far

After two and a half years of fighting the Islamic State through an air war the costs to the United States is huge. So far the total cost is estimated at about $11 billion but this includes only the costs of the military operations not other costs.

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About $2.5 billion was spent for bombs, about 22 percent of the total costs for the air war in Iraq and Syria. The remainder of the costs included expenses for keeping the planes in the air and for logistics. Obama had presented the air attacks as a very limited war but the cost is building and the war seems far from over yet. Donald Trump has promised to eradicate the Islamic State and so the expenditures are not likely to end anytime soon. The attacks are destroying a great deal of infrastructure. The U.S. may be asked to help finance reconstruction especially in Iraq. The costs of replacing munitions and of reconstruction my be larger than the cost of the original operations.

The average daily cost of operations as of December 15, 2016 was $12.5 million for 861 days of operation. The cost rose from the $5.5 billion that had been spent up to the same period last year. Operation Inherent Resolve began in June 2014. About two thirds of the costs, more than $8 billion fell to the Air Force. The Army accounted for 17 percent. The Navy was 12 percent and the Special Operations Command was eight percent. There were more than 17,000 strikes. Munitions represented 22 percent of costs, and logistical support 19 percent.

One of the largest airstrikes was against IS in Palmyra Syria back on December 8th last year. Officials claimed it destroyed 168 enemy oil tankers and the following day attacks destroyed 20 more operating in the area. Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, said that the operation code-named Olympus had been planned for two weeks. Harrigan said: “There would be a larger strategic message we sent to them: Nice try. We found you. Keep trying to hide; we will hunt you down again.” Last summer was the busiest time ever in the bombing operation. June was the busiest month for the campaign. A variety of aircraft are used including the F-SE Strike Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, B-52 Stratofortress, and F-22 Raptors, as well as several types of drones and reconnaissance aircraft.

During the opening three days of the Mosul offensive last November U.S. bombs fell on the city at the rate of about one bomb every eight minutes. Colonel Daniel Manning said that the volume of strikes set the operation apart from others. He said it was rare to have such a concentration of precision-guided weapons used over a whole city for such an extended length of time. The Islamic State has now lost about half of the territory it had taken in 2014.

US drops an average of 3 bombs per hour across the globe

A report from the Council of Foreign relations shows that in 2016 the US dropped an average of 72 bombs every day or three every hour. The think tank, located in New York City, noted that 26,171 bombs were dropped on 6 different countries.

Even such a high number is probably low according to the report as a single strike can often involve multiple bombs or munitions. In Iraq and Syria where the US is helping drive Islamic State (IS) militants from both countries, 24,287 bombs were said to be dropped compared to 22,110 in 2015. The number of bombs dropped in Afghanistan also rose in 2016 to 1,337 in 2017 compared to just 947 in 2015.

When campaigning for president in 2008 Obama promised to end the Iraq war on day one. Yet the US has sent more and more trainers and advisers to Iraq and also to Syria while claiming there are no "boots on the ground". As of the end of September last year the US sent 600 more troops to Iraq bringing the total to around 5,000 troops, seven years after Obama had withdrawn all US troops from the country. Obama says his toughest decision as president was to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan in 2009. While those troops are now withdrawn, there are still US troops in Afghanistan and Obama is planning to send 300 more to help the Afghans keep Helmand province out of the hands of the Taliban.

In the same year as he sent 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize:The 2009 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to United States President Barack Obama for his "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples".[1] The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced the award on October 9, 2009, citing Obama's promotion of nuclear nonproliferation[2] and a "new climate" in international relations fostered by Obama, especially in reaching out to the Muslim world.[3][4]

We are now facing no action at all on nuclear proliferation and the new climate in international relations includes a renewed cold war with Russia. The US has retained good relations with countries such as Saudi Arabia whose human rights record is dismal. Bahrain can crack down on dissidents because it is a US ally and a US navy fleet is headquartered there. Two of the few positive developments during the Obama presidency were his opening of diplomatic relations with Cuba and the Iran nuclear deal, a huge achievement to be sure.

On the whole, Obama has turned out to be a hawk in foreign relations. However, his use of force is often less visble than under the last Bush administration. For example, he has expanded greatly the use of special operations around the world. In 2016, special forces were operating in a total of 138 countries, 70 percent of the countries in the world. This is an increase of 130 percent from the Bush administration.

A feature of Obama's rule has been the extension of the use of drones. Obama authorized more than ten times the number of drone strikes than George W. Bush. He also has classified all males of military age in regions attacked as legitimate targets. The extended powers that Obama has given himself will now be passed on to president-elect Donald Trump. While the US is part of a coalition in bombing Iraq and Syria, the US carried out approximately 67 percent of airstrikes in Iraq and 96 percent of those in Syria.

Forces loyal to Libyan unity government continue to encircle the Islamic State in Sirte

The media office of the Albunyan Almarsoos (Solid Structure) that is in charge of the battle in Sirte against the Islamic State, announced that 10 of its forces were killed and seven injured in a suicide car bomb attack by ISIS in Abu Grein.

The report said that the attack on the Abu Grein police station was at dawn on Thursday. The killed and injured were from Abu Grein, Misrata, and Sebha. Abu Grein was liberated almost three weeks ago by Solid Structure forces, mostly militia from Misrata. The town is about 140 km west and south of Sire. On Twitter there is a video of the event. The attack shows that there are sleeper cells of IS ready to launch attacks even though the IS no longer controls significant territory. One can expect that IS will resort to attacks in major cities and launch guerrilla-type warfare rather than holding territory.

Forces loyal to the GNA claim they have consolidated their siege around the Islamic State in Sirte. The IS controls only a 15 to 20 square mile area in central Sirte. The consolidation is for a final battle to take Sirte. The IS has been launching counterattacks with suicide bombers that are taking a heavy toll both within Sirte and outside as in the Abu Grein attack. Several bomb attacks have been foiled. One attack killed three people at a field hospital. The anti-IS troops have captured an ammunition stockpile and supposedly fended off an IS attack to retake the port. After losing the port, the IS cannot be resupplied by sea.

Twitter is a virtual battlefield as IS and the Misrata militia trade competing photos and videos showing that they control the port. One tweet shows the Solid Structure forces at the port: #Libya : @centre_ly released a video, dating as of today of #Sirte harbour. Troops seem to be at east of the harbour, A commentator notes that the IS video could be at the west end of the harbour. Often photos or videos have no date and are from another time.

The Solid Structure forces appear to be holding on to their gains. The Solid Structure operations room said:“Our forces drove back an advance in which Daesh used mortar bombs and one tank along with snipers located on high buildings, Our forces continued targeting IS positions in the vicinity of Ouagadougou conference centre, The Libyan air force carried out a number of sorties, while engineers continued sweeping the liberated areas of landmines and explosives.”The Ouagadougou conference center is a three-hectare area of sprawling halls built by Muammar Gaddafi to host African Union meetings. It is used as a headquarters by the IS. The Solid Structure coalition has made great gains since the offensive started early last month.

On the eastern front, the Petroleum Facilities Guard has also advanced capturing several towns in the eastern part of IS territory including Ben Jawad, Nofiya, and Harawa. Meanwhile Khalifa Haftar has yet to engage in the battle for Sirte even though he announced over three weeks ago that he was marching to liberate the city. Instead he has been attacking Derna and the Shura Council that was instrumental in liberating Derna from the IS. Haftar has been criticized by many for the resulting civilian casualties.

Military officials told the Libya Channel that IS is launching vigorous counter attacks, with suicide bombers, booby traps, and snipers, that has stalled the advance of Sold Structure troops. As the Abu Grein attack shows the IS can still strike far behind the front lines. Medical officials says that so far a total of 145 pro-GNA troops have been killed and about 500 injured. On Tuesday, five were said to be killed and 37 wounded in a counter-attack.

Spokesperson for the Solid Structure, Brigadier General Mohamed al-Gasri, urged the international community to help with the wounded. Some flights containing the wounded have not been allowed to land in Europe and there are complaints about treatment in Tunisia and elsewhere. Al-Gasri said: “Our sons are hospitalized and their condition is pitiful, but there is no support from the international community on whose behalf we fight this war>”

Haftar rejects the GNA and its officials. He refuses to join a unified command saying:“Firstly, We have no links with Mr Seraj and the Presidential Council which he leads is not recognized by the parliament,

Secondly, on this unified command center, I would like to stress that Mr Serraj relies on militia and we refuse them. An army cannot unify with militias so they must be dismantled. It’s unthinkable to work with these armed factions,”

Press conference of Martin Kobler Special Representative of Secretary General in Libya

After a meeting with members of the State Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) held a press conference.

Excerpts from the conference are published on the website of the United Nations Support Mission in LIbya (UNSMIL). Kobler starts out by expressing condolences to those who lost relatives in the recent offensive of Misrata militia groups against the Islamic State east and south of Misrata. However, he uses the losses to argue how "urgent the situation here in Libya to come to an agreement on how to implement the Libyan Political Agreement and to go the way of peace and prosperity in this country." Notice he cannot bother to be specific about who is to come to agreement with whom but adds in the emotively useful phrase "peace and prosperity." He uses a tragic loss to press for his own political agenda of having everyone unite behind the GNA.

Kobler stresses the importance of implementing the Libya Political Agreement (LPA), noting that all the ministers at the recent Vienna meeting agreed on this:The Libyan political agreement needs three strong institutions, the Presidency Council, the House of Representatives and the State Council. We had very good, very extensive, and very frank discussions on these questions. It is important that these institutions go ahead to serve the people, to provide them food, to provide them electricity and to pass the necessary laws for it because also Ramdan is right in front of the table and there are many economic problems here in the country.

However, it makes no sense of talking about the HoR going ahead as part of the GNA since it does not recognize the GNA and will not until it has taken a formal vote of confidence and amended the constitutional declaration of 2011. Kobler mentions the necessity of the passing of an amendment to the constitutional declaration. He recognizes in effect the State Council is not yet legal, although he does not exactly put it that way. The State Council can fully function only if the constitutional amendment is passed in its entirety. In addition, the House of Representatives has to pass the Constitutional Amendment in order to give full strength to the SC here in Tripoli. Of course, there are different perceptions now in the country about the State Council and as United Nations and as a member of the international community I would like to assist both State Council and the House of Representatives and others in order to bring the different views together.Note that Kobler says that the State Council "cannot fully function" unless the amendment is "passed in its entirety." Of course Kobler does not clarify why the State Council cannot fully do its job without the amendment or if he thinks that the amendment has been partially passed. Probably he is referring to the fact that at a meeting of the State Council, it convened first as the rival parliament to Tobruk the General National Congress (GNC) and passed the required amendment to the constitutional declaration and then voted in favor of the GNA before dissolving itself and transforming the meeting to one of the State Council. Perhaps this is to be thought of as a "partial amendment" to the declaration that now needs to be amended in its entirety by the HoR. Kobler says he needs to bring Libyans together as the HoR.and supporters have some of those " different perceptions now in the country" about the Council. Among these perceptions are that the process of establishing the State Council was illegal. The Council, a mainly advisory body is composed of former members of the General National Congress, including many Islamists opposed by the HoR and Haftar, commander in chief of the associated Libyan National Army.

Kobler says that the State Council and the HoR are like twins. The problem is that the HoR already exists and up to now has shown no desire to be reborn as the GNA legislature until the GNA mother agrees that the father of the HoR, Khalifa Haftar, be given proper recognition as the commander in the chief of any new Libyan National Army(LNA).

Kobler says that politics, not military developments on the ground, should determine guidelines for the way forward: "That’s why it is very important that the politicians sit together, members of the State Council and members of the HoR; the presidents of both, SC and HoR, together with the Prime Minister to tackle the very urgent problems in the country." This appears to recognize the HoR as a partner, yet it is a parallel institution no longer supposed to be recognized or to be dealt with according to what was urged at the Vienna meetings. Whether, Kobler likes it or not the military situation on the ground will be an important factor in bargaining between Haftar and the HoR and the UN-backed GNA. Kobler and the GNA know this, which is why exemptions to the arms embargo will only apply to forces loyal to the GNA and not Haftar. Haftar has ways of getting weapons without the embargo being lifted however.

Kobler claims the military situation can only be tackled by "united Libyans." This is simply not true. The situation is being tackled even though not efficiently without unity. What bothers Kobler is that Haftar is fighting on his own terms attacking Derna, securing oil fields, and clearing out pockets of Islamist resistance in Benghazi. Kobler wants him to attack the main stronghold of Sirte but so far Haftar has not. Kobler never mentions Haftar by name.

Kobler claims Libya's main problem is fragmentation and division. It could never be that this is in part caused by his own single-minded attempt to impose the GNA on many who resist it and see it as a foreign imposition. Of course he simply rejects such "perceptions":The Political developments must be much faster and the political dialogue among all political stakeholders is a must. I also requested from the members of the State Council to give me ideas what they expect from the international community. We are here to support you, not to replace your decisions. This is Libya. These are your institutions, and this is your agreement, and these must be your decisions and we are here to help you and to support you.

As Kobler himself said many times the time for dialogue is long over and that the LPA cannot be amended. By dialogue he means talks that using threats or rewards convinces those opposed to support the LNA. If you don't agree the international community will help you and support you by imposing sanctions on you, or making sure you do not get any arms legally. In answer to a question Kobler said: Our task is to stop the bloodletting and to sit together. It is very clear that the weapons embargo is on all over the country, everybody must respect this weapons embargo. Now you have the Presidency Council and a very clear guideline that the Government of National Accord will be in place and that the Presidency Council is the Supreme Commander of the Libyan Army. Regular forces under the leadership of the Presidency Council can be exempted from the weapons embargo of the United Nations. This process has to be expedited. The PC issued already some decisions concerning the operation centre, but also concerning the structure of the future Libyan Army, and all stakeholders must be reflected in this joint Libyan army.Kobler made it clear that these "regular forces" would come from all areas of Libya. As it is now, the GNA depends upon militia for security. Khalifa Haftar has made it clear that he will never unite with militia groups. Even if some of them were to meld into the regular forces it is doubtful if Haftar would unite with them. Note that Kobler explicitly states that the PC is Supreme Commander of the Libyan Army, a feature of the LPA that the PC studiously ignored since just a while ago. Haftar and the HoR reject the sections of the LPA which give the PC this power.

Kobler presents no plan for having the HoR approve the GNA and pass the amendment. He did not suggest when and where a meeting should be. A planned meeting at Ghadames did not take place. I expect that Kobler will try again to gather together members of the HoR without those opposed to the GNA. However, even those in favor demand that Haftar remain as commander-in-chief.

Islamic State blows up gas plant in Iraq

Islamic State (IS) militants launched a deadly attack on a natural gas plant in a factory complex at Taji about 20 kilometers north of Baghdad.

The plant is quite close to a military base where New Zealand and Australian forces are located. Up to 143 New Zealand personnel have been sent to Iraq. The group is part of a two-year non-combat mission. It works together with Australian Defence Force troops to train the Iraqi military and security forces. New Zealand Prime Minister John Key had visited the base in 2015. He said at the time that troops are not allowed outside the base, which has heavy security.

The IS fighters blew up suicide car bombs outside the gate to the factory complex and then at least six wearing explosive suicide vests moved inside the complex. They then blew themselves up, causing huge explosions. At least 14 people were killed, also causing extensive economic damage. Twenty-seven troops were reported wounded in the attack. An IS-affiliated news agency said that a group of "Caliphate soldiers carried out the attack. The plant provides fuel for power plants and also cooking gas for many in Baghdad. The IS has been launching a number of car bomb attacks in and around Baghdad among other places. The attack was just one of several attacks that happened on Sunday killing 29 people. Another source puts the number killed on Sunday at 71 with 88 wounded.

The Shi’ite-led government of PM Haider al-Abadi is shutting down or curtailing media outlets popular with Sunni Iraqis. The reasoning is that the outlets could inflame sectarian feelings and result in bloodshed. Among the targets of the campaign were the local office of al-Jazeera and TV channel al-Baghdadia. The Islamic State has lost a considerable amount of territory it used to control in Iraq but still controls large areas of the north and west including the major city of Mosul.

PM al-Abadi is facing a political crisis as he has so far unsuccessfully tried to meet the demands of protesters for reform. He has been unable to convince the parliament to accept a list of technocrats as a cabinet. Many in the parliament want to retain the corrupt system giving parties and sectarian groups key positions in order to support the government. The protesters are led by Muqtada al-Sadr and not long ago they broke into the Green Zone and stormed the parliament. Al-Abadi claimed that the political dispute helped militants:"The political conflict among politicians and their impact on the brave security forces permits acts of terrorism to occur." He dismissed the idea that rival political parties were behind the violence and blamed it squarely on the Islamic State.

Islamic State forces driven from their positions on the outskirts of city of Derna

Quite different accounts are emerging of recent fighting on the outskirts of Derna. According to the Libya Observer, fighters from the Shura Council drove the Islamic State fighters out of their base in the nearby Fatayah mountains.

Media reports claim the militants retreated under heavy fire from the fighters with many being killed. The Shura forces were hunting down any remaining Islamic State fighters in the area. The Senior commander of the Derna Shura Council forces, Mohammed Dango claimed that the entire Fatayah region was under their full control. Derna has long been under the control of the council with the Islamic State still on the outskirts and nearby mountain areas. There is no mention of the Libyan National Army (LNA) that was also attacking the Islamic State in the area.

The Libya Herald gives a quite different account. It reports that the LNA has finally cleared the Islamic State out of the Derna area. Abdulkarim Sabra, spokesperson for the LNA Operations Room covering the Derna area said the army had taken control of Derna's south eastern suburb of Fatayah or District 400 at the far east end of Derna. The area was taken after a ground and air offensive codenamed "Death Pledge."

Sabra claimed the Islamic State fighters managed to escape and had retreated on express orders of Abu Al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State caliph. He said they retreated towards Sirte in 32 vehicles. He said they had fueled up at a petrol station before destroying it. GIven that there is all this knowledge of the IS movements how is it that air action was not taken to destroy the convoy? Apparently it was left to continue to Sirte. Sabra claimed two soldiers had been killed and one injured in fighting. The Herald mentions that there have been local clashes between Derna jihadists and the IS. The Herald says that there is unofficial collaboration between the LNA and the Derna Council.

Within Derna, the Herald says anti-Haftar critics claimed that IS was forced out solely by the Council fighters, not the LNA. The Herald reports LNA helicopters were still targeting Fatayah in the afternoon and evening. Given that the area is now claimed to be controlled by the 102 brigade of the LNA it is strange that there would still be helicopter attacks. On Twitter there are numerous exchanges about what is happening with some claiming that Haftar forces are now attacking areas controlled by the Shura council. One tweet said: Col. Manfur, commander of #Benina airbase confirmed they carried the air raid on #Derna, after #ISIS was defeated.

#Libya @UNSMILibyaHere is a short sample of tweets showing the divergent views on what is happening: Mohamed Eljarh ‏@Eljarh

@W_Lacher Without cutting supply lines, restricting movement by taking up positions around Derna,Airstrikes it would not have been possible.

Wolfram Lacher ‏@W_Lacher 12h12 hours ago

@Eljarh "LNA" cut off supply lines to those fighting IS in Darna over the past weeks. According to army officers leading forces in Darna.

@W_Lacher @Eljarh Did you listen to Hiftar forces in Ain Marrah leaked audios threatening people of Derna? Lol what an National Army

In Derna itself, people took to the streets to celebrate the defeat of IS. The Shura Council of Revolutionaries contains groups said to have links to Al Qaeda. Those in control of Derna oppose the House of Representatives government and even more the commander in chief of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar.

U.S. may change plans about cutting troop strength in Afghanistan

Commander of the US forces in Afghanistan General John Nicholson claims there is a shift in the relationship of the Taliban to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. He claims this is complicating anti-terrorism efforts.

Nicholson claims the closer relationship has developed since the death of the former Taliban leader Mohammad Omar, who was replaced by Mullah Akhtar Mansour. Nicholson says that Mansour cultivated the closer relationship as a means of winning support in a leadership battle. This development could influence plans to cut US troops in Afghanistan. The presence of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan has all along been the reason for U.S. and NATO forces to go into Afghanistan in the first place even though for some while the numbers of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan were not large. A perceived resurgence of the group could be a justification for the U.S. not cutting their forces or even increasing them even though the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan is supposedly ended.

Nicholson said: "You see a more overt cooperation between the Taliban and these designated terrorist organizations. Our concern is that if the Taliban were to return, that because of their close relationships with these groups, that they would offer sanctuary to these groups."Nicholson is reviewing a plan that would see U.S. troop numbers in Afghanistan cut in half to 5,500 by 2017. Some U.S. politicians and Afghan commanders are requesting that Washington reconsider its plans. Nicholson would not comment on the review which is to be presented this June. The warning about Al Qaeda is rather suspicious given that U.S. officials estimates that there are just 100 to 300 Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan although some claim the estimate is low.

It is the Taliban who are still the main threat to the US-supported Afghan government. It numbers its fighters in the thousands and has retaken swaths of territory in the southern province of Helmand, and even took over the northern city of Kunduz for a short period. A recent attack on Kunduz has been repulsed with more than 50 Taliban reported killed but the Taliban remain on the outskirts where they took over some military outposts. The Taliban just announced their spring offensive.

U.S. operations in Afghanistan have already picked up since the Islamic State in Khorasan has been designated as a terrorist group this January. In just the first 3 months of this year the U.S. has carried out nearly 100 strikes against the group mainly in the province of Nangarhar in eastern Afghanistan. The Islamic State and the Taliban are enemies with the IS attacking the Taliban as well as the government. Another source gives slightly different figures about the number of attacks: In the three months since the Obama Administration gave forces in Afghanistan authority to strike ISIS even when they don’t pose a direct threat, the Pentagon says some 70-80 such airstrikes have been launched, with 70% to 80% of them in Nangarhar Province.General Charles Cleveland said that airstrikes had been quite effective in that at one point the Islamic State controlled six to eight districts but now controls only two to three. Before this announcement, the U.S. had not officially confirmed that the IS controlled any territory in Afghanistan. Cleveland estimates that there are around 1,000 Islamic State fighters in Afghanistan, considerably more than Al Qaeda.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/op-ed-al-qaeda-growth-in-afghanistan-may-signal-more-usa-intervention/article/463104#ixzz46bDf3zAx

European Union to sanction 3 officials of rival Libyan governments

The European Union (EU) has agreed to sanction three Libyan leaders who oppose the Government of National Accord (GNA). The EU has been hesitating for months over fears of derailing peace efforts.

Now the GNA has simply declared that it is the sole legitimate government and will move to Tripoli despite no formal approval by the internationally recognized House of Representatives (HoR). The "peace process" apparently no long needs the vote of confidence by the HoR, as required by the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA). There has been no amendment to the Constitutional Declaration of 2011, so the GNA has no legal basis in the constitution. What we have is an exercise in extra-legal power politics. There is at least one fig leaf, the letter of support by an alleged majority of the HoR members, regarded as equivalent to a green light to go ahead by the UN and GNA. There is no need now to worry about disrupting passage of the GNA through the HoR since the powers that count have already accepted the GNA without the vote.

The sanctions will likely involve travel bans and asset freezes and should be imposed in the next few days. The sanctions are justified under the terms of UN Security resolution supporting the LPA. The UN has tried itself to impose sanctions earlier but they did not pass the Security Council. The UN then tried to impose sanctions through the EU. The EU was to sanction Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), but Haftar claimed rightly that they were meaningless. Reuters' account of these new sanctions somehow thinks these prior sanctions should not be mentioned. The Haftar sanctions disappeared off the radar of news media. Haftar has many times snubbed his nose at the UN peace process and tried to stop it but he seemsuntouchable. He has arguably been a key "spoiler" in the peace process. He appears to have considerable control over what the HoR and the premier Abdullah al-Thinni do or don't do.

Reuters says: The sanctions deal marks a breakthrough for France, which hopes the measures will help accelerate the formation of a government and avoid Libya slipping fully into the hands of Islamic State militants.The Islamic State has only a small part of Libya and there is little chance Libya could fall into the hands of the Islamic State. This is not reporting, it is fear-mongering.

A senior diplomat said the sanctions had been agreed but the legal text to support them still had to be drawn up. The diplomat said he expected that no government would object to the proceedings, Three men are to be subject to the sanctions. Nouri Abusahmain is the president of the General National Congress in Tripoli and Khalifa al-Ghwell is prime minister of the GNC. Both are sanctioned probably because the GNC does not support the LPA or GNC as it is. They are also blocking travel of UN officials into Tripoli to set up the GNA. Somewhat surprisingly, Aquilah Saleh, the president of the HoR, is also sanctioned. He was originally a hard liner but supposedly came to support the GNA. Now he is apparently opposing it or at least did not facilitate the passing of the GNA through the HoR. The HoR is the legislative body of the GNA and also must approve some of the decisions of the Presidency Council. To sanction the head of the GNA legislature is at the least a bit odd and certainly may influence the attitude of the HoR to decisions it has to approve.

Although there are dire humanitarian needs throughout Libya especially for medical supplies, it would seem that these needs are one of the carrots used to get support for the GNA. In January EU foreign ministers promised 100 million euros or $108 million in immediate aid once the GNA is formed. Sanctions are the sticks. The result may be hardening of positions and further division.

Unidentified planes bomb Libyan city of Derna damaging medical facility

Unidentified warplanes bombed the eastern city of Derna or Darnah early Sunday. The city was captured from the Islamic State last year by the Derna Shura Council fighters, driving them into the nearby mountains and outlying suburbs of the city.

The bombings targeted Shura Council locations and civilian areas. The Council confirmed two of their fighters who were besieging IS militants in the Al-Hilah district were killed. Another strike in the Bab Tobruk killed a woman and her child. A mosque and some civilian houses were also hit in the same area causing damage. As well, Derna's Kidney and Disease Center was damaged. The IS are now attempting to advance towards the city. The Shura Council has declared a state of emergency in anticipation of an IS attempt to advance into the city.

Reports of the bombings come from the Libya Observer an outlet that supports the General National Council (GNC) government in Tripoli and is very much opposed to General Khalifa Haftar, the commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army, of the internationally-recognized House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk, eastern Libya. Although Derna is in eastern Libya, it is not controlled by the HoR. The Islamic State lost most of Derna last June to the Council fighters. However, there are still pockets of Islamic State fighters in nearby areas.

A recent battle involved a mountainous area overlooking the east coast known as Al-Hajjaj. IS fighters were spotted by a surveillance unit of the Council and bombarded the area with artillery fire. In another area of contention Al-Fatyeh, the Council and IS fighters were exchanging heavy gunfire but with neither side gaining significant ground. The Shura Council complained that it received no air support from the Air Force of the HoR. This is not surprising. The Derna Shura Council, while fighting the Islamic State, is itself composed of various groups of jihadists, at least one, Ansar al-Sharia, associated with Al Qaeda. The Derna Council has good relations with the GNC but is an opponent of Haftar and the HoR. It would not be too surprising if the planes that bombed Derna were associated with the Libyan Air Force allied with Khalifa Haftar. However, the fact that the Libya Observer does not claim this means that they have no idea where they were from.

Just this Wednesday, a Derna court sentenced a senior IS commander Ayman Al-Misman to death. He was captured while hiding in a house in Derna after he fled from the fighting in Al-Fatayah area where remnants of the IS fighters who used to occupy Derna are holed up. Al-Mismari had been made Wali or Governor or the Ras Al-Hilal region of eastern Libya.

Derna is known as a hot bed of jihadists. Even Gadaffi had continuing troubles trying to control the city. Here is an interesting factoid about Derna: In 2007, American troops in Iraq uncovered a list of foreign fighters for the Iraqi insurgency and of the 112 Libyans on the list, 52 had come from Derna.[35] Derna contributed more foreign fighters per capita to al-Qaeda in Iraq than any other city in the Middle East and the city has also been a major source of fighters in the Syrian Civil War and escalation of the Iraqi insurgency, with 800 fighters from Derna joining ISIL.[6]

Islamic State in Yemen attacks presidential palace in Aden, Yemen

A suicide car bomber detonated his vehicle as he rammed into cement blocks protecting the gate of the presidential palace in Aden, Yemen, the local police chief Shalal Shaei told Al Jazeera.

Shaei said at least seven people were killed and another 15 people wounded by the blast. The dead included soldiers. Another report claimed five people were killed. A group affiliated with the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack. The Islamic State is in competition with Al Qaeda in the Arabia Peninsula (AQAP), who has taken advantage of the civil war against the Houthi rebels to extend its area of influence and control in Yemen. It has also allied itself with local Sunni tribes to fight back against the Houthis. It virtually controls the province of Hadrahmut east of Aden and its capital city, Mukalla.

A Saudi-led coalition has beaten back the Houthis from the port city of Aden and surrounding areas. The Saudis have led an extensive bombing campaign against Houthi-held areas since last March. Prime Minister Mansour Hadi recently returned to Yemen to set up his government. He and his government had long been forced into exile in Saudi Arabia because of the Houthi advance.

A report by a panel of 18 UN experts documented 119 sorties by the Saudi-led coalition "relating to violations of international humanitarian law" and claimed that "many attacks involved multiple air strikes on multiple civilian objects." Rights groups in the U.S. and UK have called on their government to stop sales of weapons to the Saudis that could be used in these attacks. The report said all sides had violated international humanitarian law. Evidence shows that the Saudis used cluster bombs. There is an international ban on their use but neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.S. have signed on to the ban.

The aid agency Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF) demanded an investigation of an attack on one of its hospitals that it claims killed six people and wounded at least seven others. Most were medical staff and patients. In the last three months MSF has seen two hospitals, a clinic and an ambulance hit.Raquel Ayora, MSF Director of Operations said: “The way war is being waged in Yemen is causing enormous suffering and shows that the warring parties do not recognize or respect the protected status of hospitals and medical facilities. We witness the devastating consequences of this on people trapped in conflict zones on a daily basis.”Nearly 6,000 people have been killed, around half of them civilians, since the coalition began air strikes in March of 2014..

Foreign military intervention in Libya increasing with more likely to come

As the Islamic State launches more attacks in Libya, there is an increasing likelihood that there will be further foreign military intervention to confront the group.

The U.S. top general, Joseph Dunford, chair of the US military Joint Chiefs of Staff, is reported by the New York Times as having said in Paris:

 “Unchecked, I am concerned about the spread of ISIL in Libya…You want to take decisive military action to check ISIL’s expansion and at the same time you want to do it in such a way that’s supportive of a long-term political process.”

Dunford said action was likely to be within weeks rather than hours. General Joseph L. Votel, commanding general of the Joint Special Operations Command, noted that fighting the Islamic State would not be all about Iraq and Syria but concerned Libya as well. Apparently a large meeting in Rome last week was not just about bringing humanitarian and other aid to Libya but about security and military options. Military intervention in Libya has long been planned by several western countries since at least last August.

The German newspaper Die Welt makes it clear that the foreign military intervention hopes to gain international legitimacy through being invited into Libya by the UN-brokered Government of National Accord:

“The only thing missing for a military intervention is the legal framework. As soon as the new Libyan unity government is formed, it can proceed. When Libya has a united and to some extent legitimate government again, then there is someone in response to whose request a western military intervention can take place within the framework of international law.”

So far, the GNA has not begun to function, as it needs a vote of confidence in the internationally-recognized House of Representatives or HoR. This must happen according to the terms of the Libyan Political Agreement(LPA) by January 27. Martin Kobler, head of the UNSMIL, has yet to announce when the vote will take place. It met four times already but failed to achieve a quorum. It is not clear it will be able to vote on the issue this time around in spite of tremendous pressure to do so. Meanwhile the Libyan National Army seems to be experiencing divisions, with several groups rejecting the commander in chief Khalifa Haftar a former CIA asset.

A number of sources claim that foreign troops are already in Libya. The Libya Observer says:Military forces from Britain, US and Russia have arrived in Libya to support the new UN-backed government, London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported on Saturday, adding a French one is to follow soon. The newspaper said foreign troops made up of dozens of soldiers and officers landed at Jamal Abdel Nasser military base south of Tobruk. Eyewitnesses said the number of foreign military personnel arrived at the base has reached 500, while a military source indicated that the number does not exceed a dozen of officers who came to give consultations to the army.Al Arabiya provides a similar report. There is also a report that a plane carrying military experts from France arrived in Tobruk yesterday. A group of U.S. commandos landed in Al-Watiya airbase in Libya but left when confronted by Zintani militia who demanded they leave.

The Israeli intelligence source Debka has much more detail of what is allegedly planned with maps of the operations. Debka claims that Obama decided earlier in January to open a third anti-terror front in Libya to eradicate the Islamic State there. To the surprise of many, he decided to launch the campaign in cooperation with Russia. Debka claims the first step took place on the weekend with a group of US, Russian, French, and Italian Special Forces landing at a point south of Tobruk near the Egyptian border. Some 1,000 UK SAS were standing by as they had prepared for the landing. Debka goes on:At the peak of the assault, large-scale US, British and French marines will land on shore for an operation first billed as the largest allied war landing since the 1952 Korean War. The attachment of Russian forces was negotiated later. According to the scenario sketched in advance by DEBKA Weekly, large-scale US air, naval and ground units are to spearhead the new coalition’s combined assault on the main Libyan redoubts of ISIS, Al Qaeda, Ansar al-Sharia and other radical Islamist organizations. Cruise missiles strikes will blast them from US, British, French and Italian warships on the Mediterranean.

While Debka has its supporters, and is sometimes right, a bit of caution is in order:

...Israeli intelligence officials do not consider even 10 percent of the site's content to be reliable.[1] Cornell Law professor Michael C. Dorf calls Debka his "favorite alarmist Israeli website trading in rumors."There seems little doubt however that many foreign countries are lining up to militarily intervene in Libya as soon as the GNA gets up and running or as it seems even before this happens. Parts of the Debka report also fit in with other reports. For now, it appears most likely that there will be small groups of special forces operating in Libya from a number of countries.

Islamic State sets oil storage tanks onf fire at Ras Lanuf Libya

The Islamic State(IS) has launched more attacks on oil terminals, this time at the Ras Lanauf — sometimes spelled Ras Lanuf or Ras Lanouf — export terminal. Four more oil tanks have been set on fire.

The chair of the Tripoli-based National Oil Company, Mustafa Sanalla, described the resulting fires as a disaster. As many as three million barrels of oil could be set on fire. Obviously, IS is not seeking to use the oil facilities as a source of revenue. They are seeking to deprive the Libyan new UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA), or the two rivals, the internationally-recognized House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk or the western-based General National Congress (GNC) of any revenue from oil.

Sanalla claimed firemen had been unable to reach the fires because of battles between the Islamic State fighters and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) militia led by Ibrahim Jadhran. The Libyan National Army commanded by Khalifa Haftar appear not to be involved as Jadhran is at odds with Haftar. Mustafa claimed that for much of the day tanks 5, 9, 10 and 12 had burned unchecked. Sanalla was angry at this further loss, as the NOC had hired a Greek tanker to remove the 490,000 barrels of oil that remained at the tank farm.

Jadhran refused to allow the tanker to load the oil. Jadrahn has shut down Ras Lanauf, along with other export terminals he controls at Sidra, Brega, and Zuetina for most of the last two years. He insists only tankers registered with the rival eastern-based National Oil Company be allowed to load oil. So far the international community has refused to deal with the break-away company. However, recently Egypt signed a contract with the eastern company even as the new GNA comes into being which will insist on having a monopoly of oil exports, I expect. The NOC said that the situation in Ras Lanauf was catastrophic for the environment.

Reports about the situation do not yet give a clear picture of what happened. It is unclear whether the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) were able to repel the attackers. After the January 4 attack on Sidra's main checkpoint the PFG claimed to have regained control of the port. However, IS published a photo, that showed a heavily-armed terrorist standing behind what they claimed was an undamaged tank at the Sidra tank complex.

Bloomberg reports Sanalla as saying that up to three million barrels of crude oil are at risk of being burnt and that the attacks had destroyed electricity towers and cables supporting industrial areas and residencies. This may include oil at sites other than Ras Lanauf. Another source claims there are 13 storage tanks at Ras Lanauf with a capacity of 6.5 million barrels. Bloomberg reports on Libyan oil production: It’s now the smallest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing 362,000 barrels a day.The Wall Street journal claims that Libya’s contribution to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was just 0.06 percent in 2015. While loss of production from Libya may not have all that much effect on the global oil market the loss of revenue could be disastrous for an already suffering Libyan economy. The Islamic State attacks will generate even more pressure from the international community for Libyans to support the new UN-brokered Government of National Accord.

Many countries waiting in line for new Libyan government to request troops to fight the Islamic State

Since the UN-sponsored Libya Political Agreement(LPA) was signed recently, the international community is looking forward to dealing with the new Government of National Accord(GNA)

Many countries are waiting to send troops to deal with what is portrayed in the media as a huge and growing threat from the Islamic State or Daesh even though the group lost one of its main Libyan bases in Derna last June and has not regained it but has been driven into the nearby mountains. As long ago as early last August, there were plans being made to intervene long before the LPA was signed. The UN and the international community thought that the GNA would be agreed to long before now and the plans were to get permission from the newly minted and legitimate GNA to send their troops.

The plans had to be put on hold, as the former UN Special Envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon was unable to get either the internationally-recognized government the House of Representatives(HoR) located in Tobruk in the east, or the rival General National Congress(GNC)j located in the west in Tripoli to approve the LPA. When his successor, Martin Kobler, took over on November 17th he refused to change the LPA that Leon had presented to the rival parliaments or to change the names he had suggested for the GNA. Kobler was no more able to get even one of the rival parliaments to sign than Leon. Kobler decided to call together a select group including members of both the HoR and GNC governments that supported the dialogue. He had the group sign the LPA. He then got the support of the UN Security Council and later a huge ministerial meeting in Rome to endorse his actions giving a veneer of legitimacy to his underhanded and unprecedented stratagem to bypass both parliaments. Theoretically the GNA and LPA has to receive a vote of confidence by the HoR before it can begin its term but it remains to be seen if there is the least bit of attention paid to that requirement of the LPA. However, already countries such as the UK have announced their intention of sending hundreds of troops to Libya since the LPA was signed. One of the main reasons for pushing through the LPA even though neither parliament signed on was to create one Libyan government that would grant permission for foreign intervention.

The US did not wait for GNA permission. They sent 20 commandos into the eastern area where General Khalifa Haftar is commander of the Libyan National Army. Their arrival and subsequent departure when a militia group at the base would not let them leave was reported on the Facebook page of the Libyan Air Force complete with photos.US authorities must be livid with anger but accounts of what happened are muted. Already Haftar is sending international authorities a clear message that he is in charge and that proper clearance through him and his close buddy who is chief of the air force is a must or the whole secret operations of the US will be not only revealed but stopped.

As well as the UK, other countries are preparing to intervene in Libya: Italy is drawing up plans to lead a military coalition, including troops and special forces from Britain, France and Germany, which would seek to stabilize Libya but have no combat role, two Italian officials with knowledge of the matter said.

The officials said that the force would focus on training and logistical support for the Libyan-armed military and police. The Libyan-armed military at present are under the control of Khalifa Haftar who has consistently rejected the LPA and GNA. although of late he has been mum on the issue and recently met with Martin Kobler. Neither the Libyan National Army nor the rival Libya Dawn militia support the GNA. Libya Dawn and its allies control Tripoli. The GNA wants to locate in Tripoli and Kobler has asked Tripoli authorities to guarantee security. Kobler has plenty of chutzpah. He has just done a run around the GNC and is now asking them to please allow a competing government that they do not approve come to Tripoli and set up a government to rule the area the GNC controls. He is asking for a fight between some Misrata militia and Libya Dawn and allies. Perhaps, he is intending to call in help from Haftar allies and his Operation Dignity. The LPA allows for the possibility of the GNA meeting in any city. Presumably they could even operate out of Tunis if the security situation makes it impossible to meet in Libya. Note that the LPA was signed in Skhirat Morocco not in Libya due to security concerns.

Frederic Wehrey, a Libya specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said of the GNA: “The danger is that it becomes yet another third body that has to meet outside the capital or even worse outside the country." There is always the possibility that the GNA could operate as a government in exile as with the Hadi government in Yemen. The international community could get permission to bomb the Islamic State and could also train and protect armed groups loyal to the GNA who would also fight IS. Eventually, supporters of the GNA might be strong enough for the government to return to Libya. This would be analogous to what is happening with the Saudi-led operations in Yemen.

Islamic State oil goes to many different places

While the Islamic State finances itself in a number of different ways, it has long generated revenue from oil it produces in fields it has captured in both Iraq and Syria.

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The issue has become more topical as Russian defense minister Anatoly Antonov showed satellite images he claims showed tanker trucks freely crossing the Syrian border into Turkey: "Mr Antonov also said Russia had seen evidence that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family are linked to ISIS oil." More details of the alleged relationship of the Erdogan family to ISIS oil exports can be found here. Bilal Erdogan, a son of president Erdogan, is said to be involved in trading ISIS oil through his shipping business. The appended video also discusses the issue. Zero Hedge wrote an interesting article after the Paris attacks but before the Turkish downing of the Russian jet:"The Most Important Question About ISIS That Nobody Is Asking" in which we asked who is the one "breaching every known law of funding terrorism when buying ISIS crude, almost certainly with the tacit approval by various "western alliance" governments, and why is it that these governments have allowed said middleman to continue funding ISIS for as long as it has?"

The West could easily simply bomb the oil wells but the wells would be a great benefit to any future government. Attacking the oil wells often run by locals and providing jobs could generate more support for ISIS. Some refineries have been put out of commission but there are still many small units operating. According to an AP account from Iraqi officials:IS sells the crude to smugglers for discounted prices, sometimes $35 per barrel but as low as $10 a barrel in some cases, compared to just under $50 a barrel on international markets, four Iraqi intelligence officials told the AP in separate interviews. The smugglers in turn sell to middlemen in Turkey, they said. The oil used to be smuggled in fleets of giant tankers but, fearing airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition, smaller tankers are being used now. The Iraqi officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press.

The Guardian provides a map of ISIS oil in Iraq and where it goes. Much of it goes to Turkey through Syria but some goes to Iraqi Kurdistan or through that area to Syria and on to Turkey. Apparently the oil is bought right at the fields. Many of the smugglers want to sell the crude as close to where they are as they can so they can return quickly for more oil, Some however ship longer distances. A smuggler who was a former intelligence officer under Saddam Hussein said that he bought an oil tanker carrying 26 to 28 tonnes of oil for $4,200 and sold it in Jordan for $15,000. He lives in the Jordanian capital Amman. It cost about $650 dollars to bribe corrupt border officials.

The Financial Times has a map that covers ISIS controlled fields in Syria as well as Iraq and also describes the process by which the oil is sold, refined, and marketed in different areas. The map shows smuggling routes into Turkey. One is in an ISIS-controlled area but there are a number of others in areas controlled by rebels. The article claims most of the oil is actually used to satisfy the demand in ISIS-controlled areas but is also smuggled into rebel areas. Some may also be bought in government controlled areas. Little is said in the article about exporting the oil except to say that this has declined because the price of oil is so cheap on the international market.

The U.S. State Department rejected the Russian suggestion that Turkey was cooperating with ISIS to smuggle oil. Yet Toner, the department spokesperson, admitted there was smuggling of oil into Turkey: State Department spokesman Mark Toner told a news briefing that U.S. information was that ISIS was selling oil at the wellheads to middlemen who in turn were involved in smuggling the oil across the frontier into Turkey.But how is it that Turkey manages to allow a stream of oil tankers to cross the border as appears to be the case in the satellite photos? The oil still came from ISIS and they profited from the original sale,

The allies could have stopped the flow earlier by bombing the tankers. The U.S. only started to bomb the tankers in mid-November after Russia announced Russian planes would begin bombing them, as they called them a "living pipeline." The U.S. noted that the drivers of the trucks were not ISIS fighters but Syrians trying to make a living. The Russians appear not to be concerned about that. Now the Americans are bombing the tankers too.