Iraqi Kurds agree in principle with central government on the division of oil revenues

(November 26, 2019)According to officials said to be familiar with the situation a delegation from the Kurdish autonomous region met with Iraqi officials in the capital Baghdad. There was an agreement in principle on oil revenue sharing involving Oil and Finance Ministers.

Oil revenue a large portion of Kurdish area budget

The vast majority of revenue in the autonomous area comes from oil revenue. Although in the past the Kurds have tried to sell some oil on their own under present arrangements they are not allowed to do so. The central government considers independent oil exports unconstitutional.

A recent article reports on the deal: "The decision was made in a meeting chaired by Finance Minister Fuad Hussein, attended by Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban and a visiting delegation from the Kurdish region. The officials say the deal, which has been in the works for months, will be the main pillar of a broader agreement to address longstanding political issues such as revenue-sharing, territorial disputes and military cooperation."

The deal

The deal will see the autonomous Kurdish region produce 250,000 barrels of oil each day an increase from current levels. In return the central government would provide the Kurds a larger share of the national budget.

Kurds look favorably on the present government

There is a long history of friction between the Kurds and the central government on sharing oil revenues.

A recent article sums up the situation: "The Kurds’ independent oil policy has been a source of friction with the federal government for over a decade. The central government says independent oil exports are unconstitutional and has cut the annual budget allocation for the region as punishment.But relations have improved under Abdul-Mahdi, who assumed office last year. For the first time ever, the 2019 budget provided the Kurds with funds to pay civil servants even without oil transfers."

Ironically, as there are huge protests against corruption and other issues against the government of PM Abdul-Mahdi, the Kurds regard him as an ally. They may be anxious to ensure that new oil-sharing legislation is passed while the present PM is still in power.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Iraqis angry at Trump travel ban

(January 27) Iraqi MPs say that it is very likely the Iraqi government will respond to the executive order banning all Iraqis from visiting the U.S. for 30 days by initiating a retaliatory ban on Americans wanting to visit Iraq.

While all of Iraq is upset by the ban, Iraqi Kurdistan is particularly incensed as they have been trying to forge business ties with U.S. businesses. Some analysts warn that retaliation might rile up the Trump administration and warned that a mutual ban could hurt Iraq much more than it would the U.S. On the other hand, it might gain Iraqi politicians some needed public support for standing up to Trump. The Kurds are particularly angry since they have supported the U.S. for years.

When he first began to campaign for president Trump called for a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States". The country needed to "figure out what was going on". Later during his campaign he altered the policy to a suspension of "immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur". He has made good on that promise. In addition to Iraq the ban applies to Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Yemen and Sudan. Missing from the list are several Muslim-majority countries where Trump has businesses. An article in Fortune shows a map of the countries black-listed in the Middle East and those not. Those not listed include Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the home of many 9/11 terrorists.

The draft order was titled ‘Protecting the nation from terrorist attacks by foreign nationals.," and states that: “The United States must be vigilant during the visa-issuance process to ensure that those approved for admission do not intend to harm Americans and that they have no ties to terrorism.” The order says that the U.S. cannot allow those into the U.S. who are hostile to it or who place violent religious edicts over U.S. law. The order is for at least 30 days until the government is able to review and tighten immigrant screening processes. Renas Jano, a member of the foreign relations committee in the Iraqi parliament said: “There is mutual treatment between Iraq and the U.S. in terms of diplomatic relations and visa issuance. It is very likely that Iraq might suspend issuing visas to U.S. citizens following the U.S. president’s decision to suspend visas to Iraqi citizens.” However, Jano also noted that Iraq had a lot to lose if it started a fight with the U.S.: “If Iraq responds the same way to Trump’s decision by suspending visas to U.S. citizens, we will lose a lot, as there is a big American force here helping us in our war against ISIS. In addition, there are many U.S. diplomats and business people here. The decision will also disfavor Iraqi students too.”

In the Kurdish region people on the street expressed anger to reporters. In Erbil a man in his sixties said: "The Peshmerga have been fighting terror and making sacrifices in this way. Is this the reward? Calling us terrorists? In fact, they brought terror to this country They have to separate the Kurdistan Region from this decision as many people will be damaged due to this decree." Another Kurdistani Osman Rauf Osman said: "This problem has to be solved through diplomatic talks. If the Iraqi government takes such measures, the U.S. will stay away from us and this certainly will not be in favor of the Kurdistan Region at this critical time." However Hemn Maghdid said that U.S. visas were already difficult to get. He said that he thought the move was pre-planned but would not last long.

Baghdad demands Turkish troops withdraw from northern Iraq

The central Iraqi government in Baghdad has demanded that Turkey immediately withdraw troops in the northern Nineveh area near the city of Mosul that is occupied by the Islamic State or Daesh.

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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that no permission had been granted for "around one armed battalion" of Turkish troops to be in the area. Al-Abadi issued a statement saying:"We have confirmed that Turkish forces, numbering about one armored regiment with a number of tanks and artillery, entered the Iraqi province of Ninawa… allegedly to train Iraqi groups, without a request or authorization from Iraqi federal authorities."He also said that the deployment was a serious violation of Iraqi sovereignty. However, the Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu said that the troops were part of an training mission requested both by Mosul's governor, Atheel Nujaifi, and was coordinated by the Iraqi defence ministry. Turkish media reported that around 150 Turkish soldiers backed by 20 to 25 tanks had been sent to the Bashiqa area northeast of Mosul.

An Al Jazeera reporter confirmed that the Turkish troops appear to have been invited to the area by the Mosul governor:"It seems like the government of Mosul has told Baghdad: 'We need more help with fighting ISIL, and if the Turks are willing to offer that help, we will take them up on that'." However, the Iraqi foreign ministry issued a statement on state TV that the presence of the troops was "an incursion".

Iraq's foreign ministry had earlier said in a statement on state television that the Turkish deployment was "an incursion". A senior Kurdish military officer based on the front-line just north of Mosul said that additional Turkish trainers arrived at the camp on Thursday with a Turkish protection force escorting them. He claimed that training had been going on for two or three years already.US defence officials said they were aware of the Turkish deployment but they were not party of the US-led coalition operations.

Kurds claim Sinjar as part of Kurdistan after capturing it from Islamic State

Kurdish forces with U.S.-backed air strikes have driven Islamic State fighters out of the city of Sinjar, home to the Yazidi minority group. However, the victory also exacerbates tensions between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central Iraqi government

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The Iraqi government was already wary of the U.S. intervention in Iraq as it did not happen until the Kurdish capital of Erbil was threatened and the Islamic State was committing atrocities against the Yazidi minority, even though IS was capturing more and more other areas in Iraq. Back in June of 2014 as well the Kurds had taken advantage of the IS state offensive to seize the city of Kirkuk and the oil rich area surrounding it to keep it from falling into the hands of the Islamic State. They have made it clear they intended to keep the city as part of Iraqi Kurdistan.

During the capture of Sinjar, Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Worker's Party or PKK were active, a group listed as a terrorist organization both by Turkey and the U.S. However, they have played a key role in battling the Islamic State both in Syria and in Iraq. After the capture Iraqi Kurdistan president, Massoud Barzani at a press conference referred to the city as part of Kurdistan and made it clear the city would be incorporated into the Kurdish area. Before being recaptured, Sinjar was nominally under the control of the central government in Baghdad. Barzani did not even mention the role of the rival PKK in retaking the city. US Special Forces were also involved in the Sinjar operation.

This continued support for the Kurds by the United States is alienating the Baghdad government from the US and encouraging it to forge closer links both with Iran but also Russia. Over the objection of US officials, Iraq established a joint intelligence command center in Baghdad with the Iranian and Syrian governments. Just last Friday, a delegation of Iraqi legislators visited Moscow to talk about more Russian involvement in Iraq.

Ayhem Kamel, director for the Middle East and North Africa of the Eurasia group said:“The Sinjar operation will remind the key decision makers in Baghdad that the U.S. has a broader sense of strategic cooperation with the Kurds than with Baghdad.The quick gains here against ISIS, are going to undermine the broader picture of the unity of Iraq.”Relations have become so tense between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central government that in the disputed city of Tuz Khurmoto near Kirkuk, Shiite militias loyal to Baghdad have been fighting with Kurdish peshmerga forces, with several people killed. Longstanding disputes about how to divide oil revenues have not been settled. Both governments are dependent upon oil revenues to fund their activities.

Ranj Alaaldin an expert on Kurdish affairs claimed:“I think Sinjar adds momentum not just to the U.S. campaign against ISIS, but also U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, which builds on U.S. support for Kurdish forces in Syria. That will no doubt alarm Baghdad, Turkey, as well as the Iranians and Russians, both of which are competing with the U.S. to bring the Kurds within their orbit of influence.”

The US is further stressing relations with Baghdad by attempts to directly arm the Kurds counter to an agreement that the arms will go through Baghdad. Recently, a Canadian transport plane was held by Iraqi authorities for several days at Baghdad airport. Spokesperson for the Canadian Department of National Defense, Dominique Tessier, said that the plane was held due to an issue with the customs documentation of its cargo. Hakien al-Zameli, head of the Iraqi parliament security and defence commission, put it a bit differently: “The inspection committee in Baghdad International Airport has found a huge number of rifles equipped with silencers, as well as light and mid-sized weapons.The US ambassador to Baghdad has tried to send the weapons to the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and the government should investigate this and arrest the perpetrators,”The plane eventually returned to Kuwait.

Baghdad and Kurdish autonomous zone in Iraq feuding over oil again

In spite of a deal with the Iraqi government last December, the Kurdish autonomous government in Iraq is selling oil independently of the Baghdad government.

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Last year, when the Kurds sold oil independently of the central government, the federal government froze all payments to the Kurdish autonomous government. The Baghdad government also took legal action resulting in a tanker anchored off Galveston, Texas for months waiting to unload only to leave after a court found in favour of the Baghdad government's claim to the oil.

The Baghdad government has been very slow and stingy in disbursement of funds from exported oil to the Kurdistan government. With lower oil prices both governments are strapped for cash. The Kurds insist they must export their own oil because of the huge costs of fighting the Islamic State and the lack of funds coming from Baghdad. Jordan Perry, lead Iraq consultant with Verisk Maplecroft a UK-based risk consultancy firm said: “It’s quite a provocative step. Baghdad will not look kindly on that, and it’s entirely possible that it could return to the kind of legal challenges that we have seen in the past year.”

In the December deal, the central government agreed the Kurds could ship up to 550,000 barrels a day through a pipeline that connects the autonomous region with the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The Kurds expected this to yield them about $1 billion (US) a month. However, with the price of oil continuing to fall, payments have never been more than $450 million a month. While the Kurds recognize that Baghdad has its own financial problems they complain that the central government has not been transparent and open about the basis for its disbursements. The Kurds have become more and more irritated and frustrated with Baghdad. Falah Bakir, the Kurdistan Autonomous Region's(KRG) minister of foreign relations said: “If Baghdad has problems, then it has to be transparent and open with the KRG. What hurts the region is if Baghdad unilaterally decides to cut [payments] without any consultation.”

The dispute with the central government will encourage those within Kurdistan who want to create an independent state in areas that Kurds control in the north. Kurdistan is now exporting about 600,000 barrels of oil a day itself. This amount was confirmed Turkish Minister of Natural Resources, Taner Yildiz,in a recent interview. Yildiz predicted that exports would soon reach one million barrels per day. One of the achievements of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had been to improve relations with the Kurds after years of acrimony by reaching the oil deal. Now with the collapse of the deal the two governments are again in conflict.

Islamic State offensive creates flood of new refugees in Iraq

There have been many internally displaced Iraqis in Iraq during the Saddam Hussein era and ever since. The offensive of the Islamic State that overran most of several provinces has exacerbated the situation with many refugees now outside Iraq as well.

Ammar Younes is an example of one internally displaced Iraqi. Younes sits in a frigid refugee camp in the Kurdish region busy picking shrapnel from a wound in his legs. He was hurt when Islamic State radicals placed a bomb under his car in Mosul. He was a trainer for the Iraqi armed forces and had worked for three years with US forces in Iraq. He was still in the hospital when the Islamic State took over and had to flee still wearing his medical gown. Younes is just one of an estimated more than 2 million Iraqis who have been added to the already huge number of internally displaced and refugee Iraqis.

Estimation of earlier numbers can be found here. Almost 1.7 million Iraqis fled their homes during the period of 2006 to 2008 during the sectarian violence after the US led invasion and occupation of 2003. Most of them have still not been able to return home. Now the Islamic State offensive has created more displaced persons. Added to this, there are more than 3.2 million Syrian refugees some of whom sought refuge in Iraq as well.

The Iraqi government is facing a financial crisis with war costs and plunging oil prices. Added to all this is the upcoming winter season that in some areas sees temperatures fall below freezing adding to the misery of those in refugee camps. A map showing the relative numbers of refugees in different areas can be seen here. Almost half of this year's refugees have crowded into Iraqi Kurdistan which is already dealing with 200,000 Syrian refugees. Aid agencies claim that Kurdish authorities are now tightening entry to refugees. People trying to flee from Mosul, controlled by the Islamic State, claim that checkpoints run by the Iraqi army or Shiite militias turn them away.

CBS News puts the earlier number of Syrian refugees in Kurdistan at 250,000 but since the Islamic State began its offensive in June of this year there are now more than 1.5 million in the area. While many are in specially built camps, others are forced to live in unfinished buildings or makeshift shelters. As winter closes in, there is no hope of return to areas occupied now by the Islamic State. The UN and the Kurdistan government have issued an urgent call for a further $152.2 million to provide food, shelter, and medical assistance for displaced persons in the region.

The UN assistance program is chronically underfunded with only 31 percent of the planned spending received. The World Food Program is so short of money that it has even stopped procuring supplies for those displaced. The present distribution of food boxes for families will end by next February unless more funds are forthcoming. Barbara Manzi, the outgoing representative of the UN Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs, that runs the program said:“It’s not that we can do more with less; it’s that we don’t have anything and the needs on the ground are immense.”