In Libya, Haftar is enlisting more Sudanese mercenaries to help fight against Libyan government

(April 26) In Libya this week the tables have been turning as the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has taken back key western coastal areas from the Libyan National Army (LNA) of rebel Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

Haftar had made big advanced by failed to capture Tripoli

Haftar has captured eastern Libya and in the west has been contesting the capital Tripoli for a year now. Although with the support of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and mercenary troops from the Sudan Haftar has often seemed close to victory, he now may be facing defeat with the help of Turkey.

Although the GNA is the internationally recognized government of Libya most western countries only give verbal support to the country but provide no military backup with the exception of Turkey. The GNA claims France supports Haftar although France denies this. Russia also supports Haftar. Haftar is a citizen of the US and was once a CIA asset.

Reports claim Haftar asking for more Sudanese mercenaries

Reports are that the UAE has contacted Sudanese General Dagalo also known as Hemetti, and offered him substantial financial rewards if he will send mercenaries to Libya to help out Haftar as he loses ground especially around the capital. It is not clear if any of those countries that support the GNA verbally such as the US will aid the GNA in resisting any counter-attack.

One report claims that Dagalo has agreed to send two armed factions to Libya and in return the UAE promised to send both financial and military support for the general. Sudan denies that any of its troops are serving as mercenaries for Haftar in Libya.

There are already many Sudanese mercenaries fighting in Libya. They have been sharing photos and videos on Facebook. Many claim they are fighting to free Libya from terrorism. Haftar consistently describes those opposed to him as being Islamic terrorists. However, some radical Islamists, the Madkhalists support him.

The appended video gives some background and analysis by several different commentators of the present situation.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

New UN envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame reveals action plan for Libya's transition period

New UN Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) Ghassan Salame has finally outlined his action plan for moving Libya through the transition period with a new constitution and elections next year for the presidency and parliament.

Salame notes that six years ago Libyans were promised a transition but the transition is continuing with no end in sight unless action is taken. Salame does not explain why. He does not mention that the House of Representatives (HoR) has twice refused to vote confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord(GNA) as required by the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA). The last negative vote was on August 22, 2016 and a new cabinet was to be suggested within ten days. Nor is there any mention of the role of Khalifa Haftar the commander of the Libyan Armed Forces who from the first refused to recognize the GNA. He was so obstructive that there were plans to sanction him by the EU:"Two military leaders in the east of Libya, who say their forces will not respect any peace accord, also face sanctions. They are General Khalifa Haftar, commander in chief of the eastern forces and air force head Fakir Jarroushi. " Of course nothing of the sort happened. Haftar continued and met with many foreign leaders. Indeed he is now regarded as an indispensable part of the political solution: "Italy, along with France, the UK and other Western states and the UN have swung round to the view that Hafter, previously seen as an impediment to peace in Libya, has to be part of the political set-up." Salame does not even deign to mention Haftar by name let alone discuss his role in helping the transition to fail by refusing to recognize the GNA. This must be forgotten.

Also forgotten is UN Resolution 2259 of 2015: "Through the unanimous adoption of resolution 2259 (2015), the 15-nation body endorsed the 13 December Rome Communiqué to support the Government of National Accord as the sole legitimate Government of Libya. It called on Member States to cease support to and official contact with parallel institutions claiming to be the legitimate authority, but which were outside of the Political Agreement. " Yet many international authorities have dealt with members of the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government which does not recognize the GNA. There was great press coverage of a supposed crucial meeting and agreement in Paris hosted by France which included Khalifa Haftar who commands not the armed forces associated with the GNA government but those of the HoR parallel government. No one seems to bother to comment on the fact that the agreement is not between two rival heads of governments but between the head of the GNA and a military commander on the other side. It is not toothless UN resolutions that count but power. Supposed supporters of the GNA are led to ignore resolutions they supported. In all Salame's outline of his plan, I cannot find one explicit mention of the GNA except for noting that the advisory Hight State Council must be represented at a conference to consider amendments to the LPA.

The first stage in Salame's plan is described as follows:" The first stage in the process must therefore be to amend the Agreement. There is a broad consensus on the issues requiring amendments. Next week, on the basis of article 12 of the LPA, I am convening, in the UNSMIL offices, a drafting committee to formulate these amendments."

Salame does not explain what article 12 says or how it justifies convening a drafting committee to formulate amendments to the LPA. I am eager to see what the experts on Libya from various think tanks have to say about this. They may face some difficulties. The UN before has been involved in skirting parts of the LPA as illustrated in this post. The links to the LPA or Skhirat no longer take you to the text of the LPA but to the UN Support Mission in Libya website. A search for the text does not reveal the text. Fortunately, I have a copy of the text. The first problem is that there are two articles 12, one in the main text and one in the additional provisions. Here is the one in the main text:Article (12)The legislative authority of the State, during the transitional period, shall be undertaken by the House of Representatives, which was elected in June 2014; it shall practice its competencies based on the Constitutional Declaration and its amendment as per this Agreement.

This would seem to indicate that the HoR not the UN should be calling the conference. Anyway the HoR does not accept the sole legitimate government the GNA and so is not yet the legislative authority until it votes confidence in the GNA. How does this section justify the calling of a conference to make amendments? It does not even mention making amendments.

The other article 12 is in Additional Provisions: 

"Article (12)All institutions stipulated in the Libyan Political Agreement shall derive their legitimacy from the Constitutional Declaration and its amendment as annexed to this Agreement after its endorsement and adoption in its entirety, signing and entry into force. Should it be necessary to introduce subsequent amendment to the Constitutional Declaration that affects, whether directly or indirectly, the Agreement or any of the institutions that emanate from it, the House of Representatives and State Council shall commit to achieve consensus among themselves to agree on the format of such amendment. The final endorsement of this amendment shall be given by the House of Representatives, without amendment, based on the mechanism stipulated in the ConstitutionalDeclaration."

Perhaps this is the section that Salame is using as his basis for calling the group to draft amendments. The amending process referred to is only of the Constitutional Declaration not to the GPA. Notice that before there can be any amendments the Constitutional Declaration must have been amended and added to the agreement. The HoR has not yet done this or even adopted the agreement. The HoR would need to have done this before the amendment process could even take place. Neither article 12 can be a basis for whatever Salame is doing.

 In spite of continuing to spout the line that the LPA is the basis for future developments it would seem that violating the terms of the LPA is what will be happening. Note that Salame does not even bother to tell you who is to be the drafting committee. According to article 12 it should be the HoR and State High Council who draft the amendments by consensus. Salame talks of the two being at a conference to consider the draft amendments but also adds other stakeholders. Salame has simply added the process of drafting amendments but there appears to be nothing about that in the LPA. Note that this process is to be a Libyan process according to Salame but who decides who drafts the amendments and who will attend the conference to consider them? The UN it would seem.

In Libya Benghazi Defence Brigades agree to disband

The Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) has offered to dissolve itself and integrate some members into a legitimate army of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). The group claims the move is to save Libya from further bloodshed.

The BDB was formed in June of 2016 to protect the Benghazi Shura Council from the Libyan National Army forces of Khalifa Haftar. Haftar has retaken almost all of Benghazi which at one time was mostly occupied by the Council. The BDB would have liked to retake Benghazi and allow those displaced to return. The Brigades have often clashed with Haftar forces, including in two oil ports that with others they wrested from Haftar's control for a short period. After being ousted they clashed with forces loyal to Haftar in the southern Al-Jufra area. Some BDB members were involved in the GNA offensive against the Islamic State in Sirte. Not long ago, they were headquartered along with GNA-loyal forces at the Al-Jufra air base. However, the entire area is now under control of Haftar forces and both the BDB and the Third Force of the GNA retreated.

The BDB maintains it retreated to avoid further bloodshed and not take the battle to peaceful areas of Libya. More likely the BDB faced another defeat and the GNA seems to have allowed Haftar to advance after the GNA dismissed its defense minister Al-Bargathi subsequent to an unauthorized attack on an air base occupied by Haftar. The attack killed many and was described by some as a war crime. After this, it seems that the GNA gave up the entire Al-Jufra area to Haftar without a fight.

The BDB claimed that it was not a terrorist organization and that it had no ideological or political aim. The group said that a number of BDB members were ready to enlist in the Libyan army (GNA) and help build military institutions. No doubt the members will still be implacable foes of Haftar. The group insisted that its members still had the right to return to the city of Benghazi. The BDB statement said that it was forwarding their intention to dissolve to concerned state authorities for consideration. The BDB was placed on a terror list by Saudi Arabia,. UAE, and Bahrain. The Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) also put out a list that included the head of the High State Council of the GNA as well as the BDB.

In reply to the list, the BDB issued their own. Surprisingly Khalifa Haftar is not on the BDB list but some associated with him are including the president of the HoR Ageela Saleh and the PM of the HoR government Abdullah Thinni. There are eleven names in all.

No final agreement after key meeting between rival Libyan officials

(May 3) There was no official statement after Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army associated with the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) government met with Faiez Serraj head of the Presidential Council (PC) of the rival GNA.

According to Reuters: " Rival Libyan camps issued separate statements on Wednesday promising to calm tensions in southern Libya and fight terrorism, but offering no shared way forward for a political deal to unify the North African country." There are also conflicting reports about what was agreed to according to pro-Haftar sources some of which are described in a recent Digital Journal article. Reuters says that Seraj's statement does not mention the plans reported by pro-Haftar media to restructure the GNA government as well as hold elections next year. The two sides apparently tried but failed to agree on a joint statement. Reuters claims :

Conflicting accounts of initial agreements and leaks of documents neither side signed have in the past confused international mediation and negotiations to end the conflict in Libya, which fell into factional fighting in the years after a 2011 civil war ousted Muammar Gaddafi.I agree completely.

The statement from Serraj's office said that the meeting was held in order "to achieve a peaceful settlement for the Libyan crisis' and called for a "an expanded dialogue to establish national consensus". It also stressed the need to "uphold the goals of the February revolution" against Gaddafi. The statement spoke of the need to build up an army under civilian control, to combat terrorism, defuse the escalation of violence in the south and "taking all measures that guarantee the peaceful hand-over of power". A statement carried by pro-Haftar media focused on protecting the army and spoke of the "need to address the proliferation of armed formations." It also mentioned that amendments to the Libya Political Agreement had been discussed but did not give details. As discussed in my earlier article, various sources both on twitter and media reports gave conflicting details about amendments. So far it is not clear what if anything was agreed to and it is also clear neither Serraj nor Haftar signed any agreement. Much of what is happening may be just hopeful positive spin based on the fact that the two actually were able to meet. The Haftar forces used the occasion for a propaganda blitz that appears to have been largely successful.

There have been many tweets on the issue. As usual the UN envoy Martin Kobler spins the event positively in a tweet:"welcome & encouraged by President Sarraj-Field Marshal Haftar meeting in #UAE. Key step toward #LPA implementation, w/ continued @UN support" It is not clear exactly how the meeting has facilitated that. The meeting has not even resulted in a ceasefire in the south where clashes between forces loyal to Haftar and the GNA are still ongoing. A tweet reports: "That's right, artillery shelling around Tamanhint, clashes near Derna & rumors about *a new LNA OP* in Al Sabri / Souq al Hout, Benghazi." Operation Dignity will continue both in the south and elsewhere.

Perhaps this is the start of a positive process or it may be that Haftar is simply going through the motions of pretending to negotiate an agreement while continuing his Operation Dignity operations on the ground. According to Mattia Toaldo, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the meeting shows that Haftar wants to be part of the political process and wishes to run as a candidate for president in elections next year in March as required by the Libyan Political Agreement. Perhaps after more meetings scheduled next week we will have a clearer idea of what is going on.

Benghazi Defence Brigades seize two oil ports in Libya

(March 3)Reuters reports that the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB) a number of miliita groups opposed to Haftar and supporters of the few remnants of the Benghazi Shura Council left in Benghazi have entered two major oil ports in the Libyan Oil Crescent.

Eastern commander Marshall Khalifa Haftar had captured four major ports in the Crescent back in September last year from the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) that operated them then. He agreed to let the National Oil Company run the ports and export oil. No doubt there is some agreement about splitting the revenue but the press never talks about it. Haftar does not recognize the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) but the rival House of Representatives (HoR) government.

The fighting could interrupt attempts to revive Libyan oil production. The terminals said to be under attack Es Sider and Ras Lanuf are two of Libya's largest with total combined capacity about 600,000 barrels a day. Reuters said that the extent to which the BDB had gained control of the two ports was not clear. Several earlier attacks by the BDB and other groups were unsuccessful. While the LNA claimed the ports were well secured the BDB launched a three-pronged attack that broke through defenses apparently. An attack on a third port Brega was thwarted using airstrikes. The LNA apparently withdrew men and equipment from around Es Sider and Ras Lanuf in order to avoid a firefight and damaging terminals according to LNA spokesperson Ahmed al-Mismari.

According to port engineers and residents the BDB entered both ports after their attack. The BDB has posted photos of fighters at the nearby Ras Lanuf air strip. Although the LNA later said it had retaken control this has not been confirmed. There have been many tweets about what is happening some of them contradictory. A medical source claimed that at least nine men loyal to the Libyan National Army of Haftar were killed and 8 wounded in the fighting. Each side accuses the other of using mercenaries in the clashes. Some easterners also think the BDB is supported by the GNA although the Presidency Council(PC) of the GNA has condemned the raids and claims to have nothing to do with them.

The PC claimed that it had not instructed any force to move toward the area of the ports and said: “We announce that we don’t have any kind of relationship with the armed escalation that happened today in the oil crescent area...The PC reaffirms that oil is the only income for all Libyans and must stay aside from any kind of struggle”. It also said the attacks sought to destabilize reconciliation efforts.

While Libya's oil output has more than doubled from early last year to about 700,000 barrels a day this is still far below the 1.6 million barrels per day before the 2011 revolution. Tankers had been loading at Es Sider since last December. The National Oil Company (NOC) has been urging foreign firms to return to Libya and invest in the oil and gas sector. Attacks on the oil ports will make investors think twice before investing because of the security situation. The NOC hopes to have production back to 1.2 million barrels per day by later this year.

According to the Libya Herald, the LNA spokesperson admitted that it had lost control of part of Ras Lanauf including the hospital. However, LNA sources denied that Es Sider was under control of the BDB in spite of a number of reports that the LNA had pulled back from the port.

The Libya Observer reports that the BDB took control of the Ras Lanuf Airport, as well as the towns of Ben Jawad and Nofaliya . Sources from BDB also claimed that Dignity Operation (Haftar's LNA forces) launched 12 airstrikes on the BDB but failed to halt their advance. Although the BDB call their operation "Return to Benghazi" they are still about 230 kilometers west of Benghazi. It seems unlikely that they can advance to the city without being decimated. The Observer claims there were demonstrations in support of the DBD in Misrata and Tripoli.

Libya's Grand Mufti Sadiq Al-Gharyani has long supported the BDB and said that victory was looming and called on residents in east Libya to join the BDB to liberate Benghazi from Haftar and the Dignity Operation. Other groups such as the Libyan Elders' Council and the Tajoura elders also praised the operation. However, as mentioned the GNA condemned the attacks and denied any links to them. The Defense Ministry said as well if both parties refused to comply with a call for a cease fire it would send a force to the region itself. I expect this is just bluff. The GNA cannot even dislodge attempted coup leader Ghwell from his headquarters in the Rixos hotel complex in Tripoli. It would be wise not to get involved with the LNA or BDB.

There are many tweets on the issue often in disagreement. One tweet claims: "BDB will never be able to hold the oil crescent area. Just not possible. Not military & not in terms of popular support base. #Libya" Another tweet replied: "@Eljarh Mohamed hold your horses, u were tweeting all the day unconfirmed/wrong news, not clear yet 4:51 PM - 3 Mar 2017" We should know better tomorrow how things are shaping up. Personally I am surprised that the BDB was able to get as far as it has as other attacks have failed miserably.

Fake news report appears in Sputnik about Haftar takeover of Libya

A proposal by Ali Al-Gotrani, a member of the Presidential Council (PC) for a transitional phase of the Libyan government with the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshall, Khalifa Haftar, was reported as reality by the Russian news site Sputnik.

Al-Gotrani is a strong supporter of Haftar who does not recognize the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) or its Presidency Council. The Libya Observer reports that Al-Gotrani told Sputnik that his proposal would end the role of "all institutions in the state except for the House of Representatives, while the army will be the supreme authority in the country". Gotrani said:

“Every city and district in Libya will be ruled by an appointed military governor and the army will then start disarming the civilian people so that it can control all the country’s borders. Once our country is stable, democracy can take place and all parties can take to the ‘safe polls’ as the constitution drafting committee would be then resuming work as well as presidential and parliamentary elections would take place.”Gotrani sees this as happening across the whole country including the area now nominally under the control of the Government of National Accord. A spokesperson for the PC, Ashraf Al-Thaithi said Monday that Al-Gotrani's words speak only for himself and have nothing to do with the PC.

However, the Russian news outlet Sputnik starts out claiming that Libyan armed forces have declared a state of emergency putting all democratic processes on hold. They speak of Ali Gotrani, for Sputnik Ali Katrani, as head of the PC, which he is not:Ali Katrani, head of the Presidential Council at the Government of National Accord, told Sputnik that the state of emergency imposed by the military heralds the beginning of a transition period that will allow Libya to restore its territorial integrity. The military, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, will take charge of the country during this time; once the country is united once again, the government will then focus its attention on reaching a political consensus within the nation.Katrani claims that the LNA owes its support due to its successes in the fight against the Islamic State (IS). However the LNA fought against IS mostly in Benghazi and is fighting other Islamist groups there as well. It is also besieging the Derna Shura Council of Jihadists who were instrumental in driving the IS out of Derna. The main stronghold of the IS in Sirte was not fought at all by the LNA but by Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous mostly brigades from the city of Misrata, many of whom are opposed to Haftar.

Katrani said that the army does not permanently seek power but once the army had stabilized the country would return to democracy with parliamentary and presidential elections and a new constitution developed. After describing what is in effect a coup, Katrani claims the time for coups is over. In closing he notes that if the people wished to see Haftar as their leader, and he agrees, then he could participate in presidential elections. Egypt's President el-Sisi could have his friend Haftar as president of Libya. The Jamahiriya news agency picks up on the Russian report and republishes it. It remains to be seen if any more mainstream publications get taken in by this totally misleading report that fails to take into account that it is only a proposal by a member of the PC critical of the GNA. It is a proposal that would be roundly rejected by the GNA. The only way it will be implemented is if Haftar by force defeats the militia supporting the GNA.

Eastern military in Libya fear attack on oil ports

Haftar's spokesperson, Ahmed Al-Mismari claims that forces supporting the Libyan Government of National Accord(GNA) and its defense minister Mihdi Al-Barghathi are gathering near Al-Jufra in the south to attack the Oil Crescent export ports.

The four main export ports in the Oil Crescent were recently seized by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) associated with the House of Representatives (HoR) based in the east of Libya in the city of Tobruk. The HoR does not support the GNA nor does Haftar. Mismari said that along with the GNA forces were the forces of Ibrahim Jodhran. Jodhran was head of the Petroleum Forces Guards from whom Haftar seized the oil ports. Mismari also claimed that an Al-Qaeda-linked extremist group was involved which he did not specify.

Mismari told an Egyptian newspaper:“All those forces are positioned there and they are trying to advance toward the oil terminals after they have formed an operations room headed by Al-Barghathi – dubbed as Operations Room for Liberation of Oil Terminals. Fight between our forces and those of the UN-proposed government is drawing nigh.”

Mesmari also claimed that the LNA and Haftar's Dignity Operation control most western cities and that all Tripoli residents support their operation. This is stretching the truth to put it mildly. Militia opposed to Haftar and loyal to the GNA or at least opposed to Haftar control much of the west and have considerable support in Tripoli and Misrata.

Mesmari said that several scenarios were possible. He said that LNA forces had taken all necessary measures to stop any advance on the ports. There have been several reports from eastern sources that the defense minister of the GNA Al-Barghathi has gathered some brigades together to regain control of the oil ports from Haftar's LNA forces. Claims have been made by Barghathi that the LNA forces guarding the ports are actually mercenaries.

Barghathi, formerly a Haftar ally supporting Operation Dignity, is now a strong opponent since he became designated defense minister for the GNA. He formerly headed the 204 Tanks Brigade. Haftar forces recently kidnapped and killed a number of Brigade members still loyal to Barghathi. Forces loyal to Haftar have also abducted a number of men from Ran Lanuf and the town of Ben Jawad whom they claim were plotting to seize the oil terminals. It remains to be seen if there is any truth to the report by Mesmari. The UN has urged the GNA not to resort to violence to regain the ports. Neither the GNA nor Barghathi have said publicly that they are planning to do so. Haftar has been cooperating with the National Oil Company(NOC) based in Tripoli and associated with the GNA. He has allowed the export of oil from the ports and the NOC to operate them. However, control of the ports gives Haftar considerable leverage in negotiating with the NOC.

Libyan unity government and political agreement under fire

For ages now there has been a constant refrain from supporters of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) and the UN envoy Martin Kobler that the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) is the only way forward in Libya.

	1 of 2
All of a sudden, the narrative is changing. Even though at a recent conference in London there were moves made to bolster the GNA and help it out with some of its many problems, there appears to be a concerted attempt to wean international support away from reliance on the LPA and the process of having the GNA present a new cabinet before the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence as required by the LPA. The HoR voted against approving the GNA last August 22nd. There is still no sign of a new cabinet being chosen nor any new deadline for when the HoR will vote. Faiez Serraj, the PM of the GNA claims in a recent interview that the HoR is not even asking that a new cabinet be submitted for approval:

Now the HoR does not even want us to propose a third GNA. Mr Ageela Saleh has taken a prior decision to reject any proposed GNA. How can you work with this as a legislative partner? ‘I will not propose a new GNA for HoR approval prior to the HoR passing a constitutional amendment. If the HoR does not pass a constitutional amendment it abrogates its responsibilities in the LPA.If Serraj's claim is correct it is not surprising that the PC is in no hurry to create a new cabinet.

What should be clear is that the HoR and the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshall Haftar, will not accept the LPA as it stands because it has a section that sidelines Haftar and makes the Presidency Council(PC) commander of the GNA armed forces, at least temporarily. There have been numerous attempts at negotiation to get around this but none so far have been successful. There now appears to be a growing body of opinion that is suggesting that the LPA is part of the problem and must at the very least be changed and renegotiated. The Libya Herald reports: "The International Crisis Group says the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed in Skhirat last December has to be changed. In a hard-hitting and lengthy report published today, it says that as it stands it cannot be implemented."

The International Crisis Group is described here.Crisis Group raises funds from mainly western governments, charitable foundations, companies and individual donors. In 2011/2012, 49 percent of its funding came from governments, 20 percent from philanthropic organisations, and 31 percent from individuals and private foundations...Crisis Group has an Advisory Council composed of three groups named the President's Council, the International Advisory Council, and the Ambassador Council, which includes corporations like Chevron and Shell, as well as some members listed on its website as 'Anonymous'.[6] Crisis Group has been criticised for serving the interests of its corporate and government funders.It has at times been criticized as serving western interests. That the group should come out with such an extensive hard-hitting critical account of the LPA and the GNA as well indicates that there could be a shift towards a new policy that tries to accommodate Haftar by moving away from or negotiating the LPA.

The country needs the following:To save the country, the calls for new negotiations to create a united government “involving especially key security actors not at Skhirat” – a reference to Khalifa Hafter and the Libyan National Army. Not only has the agreement altered the conflict, the conflict has altered the circumstances. Hafter’s successes in Benghazi and in the oil fields have upset the international community’s calculations and changed the situation on the ground. As a result, the international community’s instance in implementing the LPA as its stands is wrong. The peace process has to be “reset”.

Note that this position not only accepts the seizure of the oil fields and ports by Haftar but warns against any attempt to take them back by other forces as the Crisis Group report says: "The Presidency Council and allies should not take over the Gulf of Sirte facilities; the HoR and its forces should not move further west; the sides’ foreign backers should push hard to avoid an escalation." This in effect freezes the situation with Haftar having the upper hand and the greater leverage in any negotiations. Haftar already moved further west after he captured the ports taking towns further west on the way to Sirte.

The report suggests that the UN and other states supporting diplomacy should promote a forum for Haftar and major armed groups from the west to discuss de-escalation in the Gulf of Sirte, Benghazi and elsewhere. Presumably this would include Derna. Such a proposal makes little sense. Haftar's Operation Dignity is not about to make peace with western militia it considers its enemy or with the jihadists in Benghazi and Derna. What evidence is there that Haftar wants to take part in such a forum or that his supporters are willing to put enough pressure on him to do so?

The report notes that countries such as Egypt, the UAE, an Russia are giving Haftar overt and covert political and military support. While publicly subscribing to the peace process they at the same time undermine it but offer no concrete alternative. Why should they as long as they see their interests being served by supporting Haftar? The report notes the danger that the forces that liberated Sirte could begin to clash with Haftar's forces and that there needs to be a reset to the peace process to avoid new clashes over oil and gas.

The Crisis Group claims that the PC should negotiate with the HoR a new unity government. The report sums up some of its recommendations in the light of the crisis situation:“The prospect of Libya in free fall should give all pause, especially the vulnerable neighbours. Regional and global actors involved in the diplomatic process over Libya should converge on common goals, push for a renegotiation of the accord, use their influence to restrain the belligerents and nudge them toward a political solution and participation in a security track.”Among the common goals the international community are supposed to have are a unified army command and a reunified security structure. However, Haftar does not want to be within the chain of a political GNA command and it is not clear how the necessary security track of unifying the security structure is to be achieved.

As this report comes out, other articles critical of the GNA and western policy are also multiplying. There is one in the Middle East Eye and another as well. There is an Alarabiya article on the Crisis Group report. The Crisis report is well worth reading in its entirety.

Libyan National Oil Company pleads for more funding to increase production

Mustafa Sanalla, head of the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC), has used the two-day meeting in London on the economic crisis in Libya to push for access to $2.5 billion funding he claims is needed for new investment to increase production.

Every time it needs funds, the NOC has to go to the government rather than having its own funds. The system, also used during the Gadaffi era meant that at times the NOC even defaulted on international loan payments since the finance ministry did not make the necessary funds available.

Sanalla claimed that three conditions needed to be met before the NOC could reach oil production of 800,000 barrels per day and 2,750 million cu. ft. of gas per day: “First, the ports and pipelines that are currently open must stay open; second, the blockade of the Riyayna pipeline [currently interdicted by the Zintanis] must be lifted and third, NOC’s budgetary requirements must be met.” Sanalla said that the NOC had to have free access to part of the income from oil and also have the power to borrow to fund itself. Sanalla has taken the opportunity of the London meeting that started yesterday to make his point.

Sanalla claims the production he projects plus revenue from petrochemicals and oil products would generate revenue of $15.847 billion if oil is at $45 per barrel. He also claimed that the 2017 budget of $2.5 billion would return $4.125 in extra NOC revenues and this would be carried on into future years as well. He warned that if the NOC did not get the budget it needed, oil production would level off at 520,000 barrels per day generating $11.72 billion. Since four main eastern ports were seized by Field Marshal Haftar he has allowed the NOC to export from them. Production has increased from around 290,000 barrels a day to around 590,000 barrels a day now. However, this is still far below the 1.5 million barrels per day before the head of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, Ibrahim Jadhran blockaded the ports, which Sanalla claims cost Libya $100 billion.

Sanalla fails to mention that Jadhran had agreed to support the GNA and had an agreement with the government to allow exports but the deal was sabotaged when Field Marshal Haftar seized the ports. Even though Haftar does not support the GNA, as did Jadhran, he has allowed the NOC to export oil. Sanalla was quite critical of the deal with Jadhran and of UN envoy Martin Kobler who had helped broker it.

The Presidency Council(PC) headed by Faiez Serraj has had problems getting the necessary funds to allocate sufficient cash to run government operations including increased funding for the NOC. This has soured relations with the Central Bank governor Saddek Elkaber. The Italian foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, said at the London meeting that he saw “a glimmer of hope in finding in finding a compromise to break the stalemate between the Libyan government and the Central Bank and put the necessary resources in the heads of the head of the government Faiez Serraj as he tries to consolidate economic and political stability”.

Serraj has been particularly critical of Elkaber for his failure to help the liquidity shortage and allowing the value of the dinar to fall. In return, Elkaber said that Serraj lacked any economic policy and was leading the economy to ruin. Gentiloni said that as well as the lack of liquidity in the banking system, another problem was that employees were not being paid. He said that getting a grip on finances would help the GNA restore infrastructure, particularly for the increase in production of oil and gas.

The London meeting was panned by Ali Gatrani, a member of the PC and supporter of Haftar, who said the London meeting was "a conspiracy designed to impose the will of outside governments on Libya". Gatrani pointed out that the House of Representatives(HoR) was the legislative body of the GNA and the fate of the state budget was in its hands. He also maintained that the PC had been inquorate at its meetings since they were not always attended by the chair and all five deputies as required by the LPA. While the HoR is the legislature of the GNA, it takes on that role only when it votes confidence in the GNA as required by the LPA. The LPA is the Libya Political Agreement. Last August 22 the HoR voted against the GNA and there has been no vote of confidence in the GNA since then. At present, the High State Council claims that it is the legislature of the GNA for now even though by the LPA it is mainly an advisory body.

UAE appears to be using remote airbase in eastern Libya to help Haftar

According to the defense publication IHS Jane's, the United Arab Emirates is flying warplanes from a remote airbase in Libya to the south-east of Marj, the headquarters of eastern commander Field Marshal Kahlifa Haftar.

Jane's Defence Weekly that reports on military and corporate affairs is owned byIHS. Jane's claims that the UAE is operating a propeller-driven AT-802U light aircraft, helicopters, and surveillance drones from the Al Khadim airport which is to the southeast of Marj. Jane's has a photograph dated July 23 of 2016 that shows six of the AT-802's known as Air Tractors, along with two Black Hawk helicopters, two drones and an Ilyushin II-76 transport aircraft. The Air Tractor is so-called because it was originally made as a crop dusting plane. The report refers to an Air Tractor photo on social media about this time. The plane was said to have been modified by the U.S. company IOMAX so that it can carry "an electro-optical pod, guided bombs, missiles, rockets and guns". However, it is not clear when exactly the photo was taken.

The Libyan Express also reports on the base:IHS Jane’s revealed that Al-Khadim Airport is in Al-Marj province around 100 km from Benghazi, where the UAE aircraft are supporting “so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) forces”, which are Khalifa Haftar-led Dignity Operation forces fighting Benghazi Shura Council fighters in Benghazi.

The article adds some further details from the Jane's report.

The Jane's article points out that at the beginning of 2016 there was little development at the airbase. A 2004 Google shot shows only a runway with no buildings at all. There were no tire marks on the runway suggesting it had not been used. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) give the airbase code HL59. In March of this year new buildings and an aircraft dispersal area were observed. By June there were also hangars under construction. While all of the aircraft listed are types used by the UAE, Jane's does not explain how they identify the aircraft as belonging to the UAE. The Jane's report appears just a day after Haftar had arrived in the UAE for talks with the UAE defense minister Mohammed Al-Bawardi. Up to know there has been no reaction to the report from Haftar or the UAE government.

Haftar was said to be in Abu Dhabi to discuss the defense needs of Libya, meaning those of the east where he and the House of Representatives government are in control. He also is said to have discussed wider problems in the area. Haftar's visit comes just a day after that of Martin Kobler, the UN envoy to Libya. The UAE news agency has not even mentioned Haftar's visit. However, officials at Haftar's headquarters in Marj claim that the visit was at the request of U.S. officials who are anxious to convince him to support the Government of National Accord (GNA). The U.S. had no comment on this. However, a U.S. Congressional Committee was also in Abu Dhabi and met with the Under-Secretary of the Minister of Defense. In September Faiez Serraj, PM of the GNA visited Abu Dhabi for talks. The UAE has been helping Haftar for some time as indicated in an earlier Digital Journal article. As shown on the appended video, the UAE was probably involved in August of 2014 in air strikes on Tripoli.

Head of Libyan National Oil Company criticizes Zintan brigades

The chair of the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC), Mustafa Sanallah noted that attempts to raise Libya's oil output face numerous problems. Among them are pipelines closed off by the Zintan brigades from the western Al-Feel and Al-Sharara fields

Sanallah said: “Both oilfields have an output capacity of 400 thousand barrels per day and Libya is definitely missing that because Zintani armed gangs had closed the Reyaina pipelines.” Sanallah said that the NOC is attempting to contact the armed group in order to convince them to allow maintenance personnel to reopen the pipelines. In July 2015 he said that the NOC had contacted Zintan Municipality but was unable to negotiate a solution. Sanallah claims the closure resulted in a loss to the Libyan treasury of 27 billion dollars, saying: “Libya has lost those billions over the acts of a heinous gang.” Sanallah said that the NOC tried to solve the issue through Zintani elders and notables to try and reach a settlement but to no avail and he claimed:

“Even the city’s municipal members failed to oblige the gangs to implement the outcome statement of the July 07, 2016 meeting, in which Italian Eni Oil Company and Spanish Repsol Oil Company took part. We have fell back upon the judiciary and we contacted the General Attorney to arrest the gangs and bring them to justice after all our attempts to settle the issue went in vain.”It is doubtful that the General Attorney has any power to arrest Zintan brigade members.

Libya began production again from the Waha fields in the east, bringing the country’s total output to 580,000 barrels per day. This is up some 80,000 barrels per day since the National Oil Corporation’s (NOC) last posted figure.

The Zintan militias, al-Qaqa and al-Sawaiq battalions, are anti-Islamist militias allied with powerful Marshal Haftar, commander in chief of the Libyan National Army associated with the House of Representatives (HoR), rival government to the UN-backed Government of National Accord. They were part of Haftar's Operation Dignity from the first launching an attack and burning the parliament buildings in May of 2014, as shown on the appended video.

Sanallah unlike many others, such as Martin Kobler the UN envoy to Libya, was quick to welcome the takeover of four oil exporting ports by Haftar from his opponent the head of the Libyan Facilities Guard (PFG) Ibrahim Jodhran. Jodhran actually supported the GNA and its NOC after a deal was signed with the GNA. However, Sanallah was quite critical of the deal and considered Jodhran a schemer and crook. When Haftar gave control of the ports to the NOC and allowed exports, Sanallah was no doubt quite happy. Perhaps, Sanallah will put pressure on Haftar to try and persuade his Zintan allies to allow the oil to flow again. Sanallah fails to mention that the Zintan brigades along with Haftar do not recognize the GNA whose national oil company Sanallah heads.

UN does not directly condemn Haftar for seizure of Libyan oil ports

In response to the seizure of four oil ports in the oil crescent by the Libyan National Army commanded by General Khalifa Haftar, Martin Kobler, the Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) has issued several statements.

After the attacks began Kobler tweeted: " worried about reported fighting in the oil crescent. will add to division and further restricting oil exports. oil belongs to ALL libyans." Notice that he does not mention Hafter and the Libyan National Army(LNA) as attacking and seizing the oil ports nor mention that those holding the port are the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) who have an agreement with the UN-backed Government of National Accord to open up the ports to export. Haftar does not recognize the GNA nor its national oil company (NOC) based in Tripoli. While many may be happy to see the deal with Ibrahim Jodhran fail since they consider him a renegade who has robbed Libya of millions if not billions in oil revenue, the situation is now that the GNA lacks any agreement at all and must bargain with Haftar.

After the LNA had cemented control over four oil crescent ports, Brega, Ras Lanuf, Es Sidra, and Zuwetina, Kobler issued a news release on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) website. His statement calls for immediate cessation of hostilities in the oil crescent, respect for the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and recognition of the Presidency Council and GNA as the sole executive authority in Libya. Haftar could very well reply that Kobler and the UN show no respect for the LPA since without a formal vote of confidence by the HoR they activated the GNA and still prate on about its legitimacy after the defeat of a vote of confidence in the HoR on August 22. They are supposed to have presented a new cabinet to the HoR over a week ago but have not done so and show no signs of being near ready to present a new slate. Kobler knows that Haftar and the HoR do not recognize the GNA and PC as legitimate, demanding that it be regarded as such will make no difference. The UN has constantly ignored Haftar's continual and successful attempts to derail the UN process. He is even stronger now. Why should he pay the least attention? A demand that has no force to back it up is worse than useless, since it reveals the weakness of those making the demand.

The demand that hostilities cease is a huge plus for Haftar. After all he has control of the ports. If the PFG and the GNA counter-attack, Haftar can complain that the GNA and PFG are acting contrary to what the UN demands. If Kobler really supported the GNA he would support their call for the defense minister to mount a counter-attack. He would also support the counter offensive announced by the PFG. A tweet says: "news#PFG regained control of #Sidra, fighting to retake #RasLanuf is ongoing w/ #JEM's militias." This remains to be verified. The GNA called on forces to protect the ports against "flagrant aggression" by the rival HoR administration.

Another tweet also announced counter attacks by the PFG: "PFG launches military ops, code-name: Dispersing Dellusion, to regain control of Oil Crescent Terminals. #Libya". Kobler says nothing about taking measures against Haftar and retaking the ports. Equally silent on the matter are the many powerful players who constantly serve as cheerleaders for the GNA, the EU and the US. They have not yet decided how to react. They also seem to fear any confrontation with Haftar. This can only encourage Haftar to demand more in any accommodation with the UN, EU and U.S.

Kobler notes that the attacks threaten stability and lead to greater division of the country. However he does not call the attacks an aggression by the LNA under Haftar. The attacks further restrict oil exports and add to people's suffering. So why does Kobler not suggest taking the ports under GNA control as before and not simply acquiescing in Haftars blatant seizure of the ports?

Kobler concludes:“I urge all parties to avoid any damage to the oil facilities. Natural resources belong to all Libyans and preserving oil infrastructure is in the national interest. He joins the Presidency Council’s calls for a comprehensive national consensus and expresses his support for consultations that would lead to the formation of a new Government of National Accord.No reference to the LPA nor the demand of the HoR that the PC come up with a new cabinet to be formally approved by the HoR as required by the LPA. No reference to the GNA demand that the ports be defended by force. There is division within the PC itself. It remains to be seen if there is any truth to the reports of a counter-attack. The media is agonizingly slow in reacting to events in Libya. Kobler is obviously desperate for a deal with Haftar even as Hafter positions himself to make greater and greater demands. However, Haftar's idea may simply be to see the GNA self-destruct and he will emerge as the champion fighter against terrorism and the strong man who is the only viable alternative. The west and other power brokers will come to accept him just as they accept el-Sisi in Egypt.

Islamic State in Libya now attacked from the east by Petroleum Facilities Guard

Salem Jedran, mayor of the town of Ajdabiya, says troops of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) are advancing toward the town of Bin Jawad, which has been held by the Islamic State (IS) since early January.

Jedran claimed that clashes are underway on eastern outskirts of the town. Bin Jawad is about 160 kilometers or 99 miles from the city of Sirte the main stronghold of IS in Libya. A recent tweet includes photos allegedly of the PFG near Bin Jawad: "#Libya : Pro-PFG account released pics of #PFG near Bin Jawad. Localization could be 19km from Bin Jawad - FB ".

The Libya Herald reports that two units of the central region (PFG) from Ajdabiya had moved within a few kilometers of Nufliva and Bin Jawad. A source close to the head of the guards, Ibrahim Jadhran, told the paper that it was "amost" in control of Bin Jawad and very near Nufliya. Jadhran is an opponent of Haftar. Reportedly he has been fired and replaced by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) of PM Al-Thinni. The firing appears not to have taken effect. Jadhran supports the GNA unlike Haftar. The area is heavily mined and two PFG fighters are already reported wounded and sent to Ras Lanuf for medical treatment. The two towns being attacked are thirty kilometers apart and are being attacked by separate units. Nufliya is being approached through desert tracks rather than the road.

The Islamic State is now facing attacks from two fronts. Reports say that the Misrata militia are just 30 kilometers from the city center. The Libyan Gazette reports that forces loyal to the Government of National Accord are now surrounding Sirte. Another report claims that the forces have taken control of the Khaleej power steam plant, even closer to Sirte at 20 kilometers. It had been overtaken by IS just a year ago. The Facebook page of the western operations room Bunyan Marsous (BMOR) claimed that they are working together with the PFG. A PFG source said he did not know but that the Misratan troops would not be allowed to move east to Nufliva and Bin Jawad. No doubt Haftar will be perturbed by what is happening. The PFG supports more power for the eastern area Cyrenaica.

In spite of the fact the Islamic State will have huge problems defending two fronts, Haftar has not yet attacked from the east even though he announced he was marching to liberate Sirte weeks ago. He recently had a council of war with his eastern commanders. His western Zintan area Chief of Staff, Abdul Razak Al-Nazhuri, was not present. He recently threatened to "liberate" Tripoli. The GNA PM Serraj and the UN's Martin Kobler do not seem to have noticed. The meeting discussed the army buildup for the advance towards Sirte. Apparently the army is gathered south of the town of Ajdabiya and the group talked of the logistics of a westward advance. They also talked about security in Benghazi after all the militants had been cleared out. Haftar may find that his enemies within the PFG and in the Misrata militia have already defeated IS before he gets started. He has been busy with Operation Volcano attacking Shura Council jihadists who were instrumental in clearing the Islamic State out of the city.