Fake news report appears in Sputnik about Haftar takeover of Libya

A proposal by Ali Al-Gotrani, a member of the Presidential Council (PC) for a transitional phase of the Libyan government with the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshall, Khalifa Haftar, was reported as reality by the Russian news site Sputnik.

Al-Gotrani is a strong supporter of Haftar who does not recognize the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) or its Presidency Council. The Libya Observer reports that Al-Gotrani told Sputnik that his proposal would end the role of "all institutions in the state except for the House of Representatives, while the army will be the supreme authority in the country". Gotrani said:

“Every city and district in Libya will be ruled by an appointed military governor and the army will then start disarming the civilian people so that it can control all the country’s borders. Once our country is stable, democracy can take place and all parties can take to the ‘safe polls’ as the constitution drafting committee would be then resuming work as well as presidential and parliamentary elections would take place.”Gotrani sees this as happening across the whole country including the area now nominally under the control of the Government of National Accord. A spokesperson for the PC, Ashraf Al-Thaithi said Monday that Al-Gotrani's words speak only for himself and have nothing to do with the PC.

However, the Russian news outlet Sputnik starts out claiming that Libyan armed forces have declared a state of emergency putting all democratic processes on hold. They speak of Ali Gotrani, for Sputnik Ali Katrani, as head of the PC, which he is not:Ali Katrani, head of the Presidential Council at the Government of National Accord, told Sputnik that the state of emergency imposed by the military heralds the beginning of a transition period that will allow Libya to restore its territorial integrity. The military, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, will take charge of the country during this time; once the country is united once again, the government will then focus its attention on reaching a political consensus within the nation.Katrani claims that the LNA owes its support due to its successes in the fight against the Islamic State (IS). However the LNA fought against IS mostly in Benghazi and is fighting other Islamist groups there as well. It is also besieging the Derna Shura Council of Jihadists who were instrumental in driving the IS out of Derna. The main stronghold of the IS in Sirte was not fought at all by the LNA but by Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous mostly brigades from the city of Misrata, many of whom are opposed to Haftar.

Katrani said that the army does not permanently seek power but once the army had stabilized the country would return to democracy with parliamentary and presidential elections and a new constitution developed. After describing what is in effect a coup, Katrani claims the time for coups is over. In closing he notes that if the people wished to see Haftar as their leader, and he agrees, then he could participate in presidential elections. Egypt's President el-Sisi could have his friend Haftar as president of Libya. The Jamahiriya news agency picks up on the Russian report and republishes it. It remains to be seen if any more mainstream publications get taken in by this totally misleading report that fails to take into account that it is only a proposal by a member of the PC critical of the GNA. It is a proposal that would be roundly rejected by the GNA. The only way it will be implemented is if Haftar by force defeats the militia supporting the GNA.

GNA still needs vote of confidence from House of Representatives before its term starts

The Presidency Council of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) has named 32 members of the cabinet. However, only seven of the nine-member Council voted, two having suspended their membership before the vote.

One member who suspended his membership was Ali Gatrani, who was one of the designated deputy ministers, and the other was Omar Al-Aswad, a Presidency Council minister. According to Reuters:

Late on Monday, one of the council members who did not sign the document naming the new government, Ali Faraj al-Qatrani, announced he was withdrawing from the process, saying eastern Libya was under-represented and there was not sufficient support for the armed forces allied to the eastern government.The GNA government names must be submitted to the House of Representatives (HoR), the internationally recognized Libyan government located in Tobruk in eastern Libya. The rival General National Congress (GNC) government is located in Tripoli in the west. After a vote of confidence by the HoR, the GNA will become the sole internationally-recognized government, but the HoR will become the sole legislative body of the GNA.. The HoR must vote on the GNA within 10 days of the announcement of the GNA's formation.

One source told the BBC that the proposed cabinet was "illegitimate" because it had not been unanimously agreed to by the Council. When claims such as this are made it would be very helpful if the section of the LPA which demands this unanimity be cited. The BBC could easily check this. The BBC article makes the astute observation that the cabinet was proposed for the sake of meeting deadlines and not losing momentum towards getting the GNA approved and up and running. The UN and international community seem bound and determined to forge ahead in spite of the dangers of attempting to create the GNA when conditions may not be at all favorable for its being accepted. Neither of the two rival parliaments approved the LPA nor did Khalifa Haftar head of the HoR armed forces or Libya Dawn the main militia supporting the GNC government.

The two members of the council who suspended their membership are supporters of Haftar. Gatrani specifically noted that he suspended his membership because there was no guarantee that Haftar would retain his position as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army(LNA), a demand made by many members of the HoR. In particular Gatrani worried about Article 8 of the additions to the LPA which can be found in the text of the LPA signed in Skhirat on December17: Article (8)

All powers of the senior military, civil and security posts stipulated in the Libyan legislations and

laws in force shall be transferred to the Presidency Council of the Council of Ministers immediately

upon signing this Agreement.

The Presidency Council of the GNA has simply ignored that since December 17, it should have been carrying out the functions of commander in chief of the LNA. Haftar has continued in his job. Obviously the GNA must have been advised by the UN that it could safely ignore this provision. Someone must have said that was OK, as a means of convincing pro-Haftar members of the GNA that they could serve in the GNA without Haftar being dismissed. You can read accounts of what is happening in the New York Times, in the BBC, or in Reuters, and this issue is not even mentioned. The GNA can act illegally for a month but it is not of interest to prominent news organizations.

The BBC quotes one anonymous Libyan as saying: "A selected cabinet with no cohesiveness might as well not bother turning up at the starting line." I expect that is not the issue that might cause the defeat of the vote of confidence in the GNA. One key factor will be a guarantee that Haftar's position within the armed forces is maintained. If this guarantee is provided, the GNC members of the GNA will likely revolt.

Deputy Minister in GNA resigns prior to vote on cabinet by Presidency Council

As the midnight deadline approaches for the announcement of the formation of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), a senior official has resigned.

Ali Al-Gatrani is one of the deputy prime ministers in the government of prime minister designate Faiez Serraj. His resignation is reported in the Libya Herald. The reasons for his resignation have not yet been made public.

Al-Gatrani had threatened to resign two weeks ago along with another deputy prime minister, Fathi Majbri. An official told the Herald then that the threats were simply a negotiating tactic. The Herald did not know whether Majbri also resigned. Even this one resignation will create problems for Serraj as he attempts to meet the deadline tonight. The Libyan Political Agreement required the announcement to have been made last Saturday but the Presidential Council unilaterally extended the time for formation of the GNA by 48 hours.

The Herald claims that the number of ministries in the GNA may be reduced. As of this morning (January 18) there were reported to be 11 ministries: Planning, finance, interior, local government and foreign affairs would be held by people from the west, defence, economy and industry, labour and social affairs by appointees from the east and education, health and justice run by southerners.Press inquiries to Serraj's team in Tunis have not been answered. Apparently, eastern region officials are demanding that Haftar remain as commander of the Libyan National Army. The LPA actually requires that his position be assumed by the GNA presidency council back on December 17, 2015, when the LPA was signed. This has never happened. The resignation of Ali Gitrani may be related to a perceived failure of the present LPA to guarantee the continuation of Haftar in his position.

On Sunday, Martin Kobler, the head of the UNSMIL visited Agila Salah in the eastern city of Shahat to gain support for the GNA and enable the GNA to announce its formation. Kobler claimed in a press conference after the meeting that Salah confirmed he still supported the LPA and GNA. Salah had a somewhat different narrative. Salah claimed that before the GNA could be recognized there must be a resolution amending the constitutional declaration. There is a provision requiring this in the LPA although it does not set out when the amendment should be passed.

On Alnabaa TV, Salah said: "As usual, he (Kobler) game to push for the national concord, but we told him that the constitutional declaration must be amended first by a majority of two-thirds of the parliament.We explained to him that this government was not given a vote of confidence. Its acts are meaningless."The reporting is from the Libya Observer which is pro-GNC and against the GNA and HoR. The Observer also claimed Salah said there must be a Libya-Libya dialogue and the GNC must be part of the solution. This story contradicts recent reports that Salah now supports the GNA. Certainly he has not been publicly involved in any aspects of the Libya-Libya dialogue lately. The Observer also claims it was Kobler, not the GNA Presidency Council, who had ordered the 48 hour extension of the deadline. We will know by early tomorrow if there is another extension before the GNA is announced.

UPDATE: The Libya Herald now reports that among the reasons that Al-Gatrani resigned was that he had been assured there would be no changes to the military with Haftar remaining in command of the LNA. Some ambassadors are suggesting that some members of the GNA may not have read the text of the LPA as released today. They no doubt read it but Kobler may have assured them that Hafter would stay and he did so to ensure they would join the GNA. Now he is suffering the consequences. Kobler has already let the GNA violate the LPA since December 17th by allowing Haftar to stay on the job. They have good reason to think he will do anything to ensure that the GNA comes into being.

GNC government threatens UN-supported GNA security officials with arrest

Prime Minister Khalifa Ghwell of the General National Congress (GNC), based in Tripoli, has ordered that any member of a new Security Team from the Government of National Accord (GNA) who enters territory controlled by Libya Dawn be ordered arrested.

This move will make it almost certain that any attempt to locate the new UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli will generate conflict and resistance from Libya Dawn, the main military force supporting the GNC, and which controls most of Tripoli. The head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Martin Kobler, is insistent that the GNA be located in Tripoli. At present, it is operating out of Tunis. Before the term of the GNA even starts, it must have a vote of confidence from the legislature of the internationally recognized government in Tobruk in eastern Libya, the House of Representatives (HoR). So far there has been no vote, though the HoR met four times. Each time it failed to reach a quorum to vote. Ghwell issued the order in his capacity as prime minister and minister of defense of the GNC.

The 18 member temporary security team was set up in a recent decree by the Presidential Council of the GNA. The group was praised by the UN in a press release:The Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) and head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Martin Kobler, welcomes the Presidency Council’s decision (1/2016) to establish a Temporary Security Committee to facilitate the implementation of the security arrangements outlined in the Libyan Political Agreement.SRSG Kobler urges all Libyans to support and facilitate the work of the Committee and calls on all relevant national institutions and security actors to collaborate with the Committee and provide all necessary assistance to facilitate its work. “Any efforts aimed at hindering the work of these institutions would only contribute to worsening the situation in Libya and those would be held accountable for obstructing the peaceful transfer of power."

One reason Kobler would like the GNA to be in Tripoli and have the GNA the security force there, is that this would give the GNA control of the offices of the Central Bank and the National Oil Company. Once the GNA gets control of those institutions and also the $57 billion or so in frozen Libyan assets, it will have tremendous leverage to buy off opposition and starve the competing GNC and HoR holdouts into submission by cutting off their funds.

None of the members of the Security Team are in Tripoli. The group is headed by Brigadier-General Abdurrahman Attawil. and Major-General Hamed Abud. Even a key member of the GNA government, Ali Al-Qatrani a deputy prime minister from the east of Libya objected to some of those named to the Security Team. He considers Attawil to be "controversial" as he is associated with the Islamic militias that control Tripoli. The Libya Observer describes Al-Qatrani as an ally of General Khalifa Haftar, commander in chief, of the Libyan National Army associated with the HoR.

However, Attawil is not looked upon favorably by some in the GNC who wanted to fire him for his poor performance as southern regional commander in 2012. Kobler has driven a wedge between the various militias who used to all support Libya Dawn. His predecessor, Bernardino Leon, did the same thing, exploiting an existing division within Misrata militia and convincing a number of groups to support the GNA.

Ghwell warned soldiers and police in areas controlled by Libya Dawn not to be deceived by promises that would be made by prime minister designate Faiez Serraj or his people. He has ordered that any of the Security Team that appear should be detained and questioned.

The GNC sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon requesting that he halt any action or act by the UN-imposed government before the GNC takes a decision regarding the government. This is totally unrealistic. The UN will claim that the GNA decides what it will do, not the UN. Also, the GNC has made no effort to make a decision on the GNA and in effect itself claims to be moving on to other practical issues. The letter warns that the GNC will take all legal and security measures to maintain "Libya's sovereignty and to ensure the safety of the homeland." Translated, this means that the GNC will enforce its control over the area in which it is active. Al-Ghwell went further and said the formation of the team by an illegal party, outside of the Libyan state, would incite violence and instigate rebellion in the Libyan army. This may be precisely what the GNA expected or perhaps they hope that the entire Libya Dawn structure will collapse and join the GNA.

Today is the deadline for the GNA to present a list of members of the government together with its political program to the HoR for a vote of confidence that must take place within ten days. So far, Kobler has no press release detailing progress on this historic date.

UPDATE: The English text of the directive establishing the Security Team can be found here. The text gives the entire membership and sets out the functions of the group. The directive claims to be a law. Why that should be, I fail to understand since the GNA's term does not begin until after the vote of confidence by the HoR, which has yet to happen.