The New York Times seems at times an outlet for Obama administration
policy and trial balloons for possible policy directions. Perhaps the
recent op-ed suggesting the EU should intervene with a peace-keeping
force in Libya is a trial balloon
The op-ed is penned by
Dirk Vandewalle an associate professor of government at Darmouth College. Vandewalle is an expert on Libya and two years ago wrote an
article for
Foreign Affairs
in which he expressed optimism about developments in post-Qaddafi Libya
although he does note the militia issue that was developing even then.
The appended video shows Vandewalle in an interview shortly after the
attack on the US consul in Benghazi that resulted in the death of US
ambassador Stevens and several others. He remained optimistic about
developments in Libya.
Vandewalle begins his article by noting that 11 special envoys had
met in Paris at the end of October. He says that the group:
" issued a
final communiqué with predictably anodyne recommendations: support for
the formal government, suggestions for making it more inclusive, a call
for the militias to withdraw and a proposal that the United Nations
spearhead a comprehensive dialogue among the warring parties."
The final communique in its entirety can be found
here.
Among predictably anodyne recommendations were that there be no external interference in Libya:
They
commended the determination of the special representative to organize,
in the near future, a new round of discussions and urged the parties to
remove all obstacles to these discussions. They stated that the efforts
of all international partners should aim to support the UN mediation
efforts. They rejected any external interference in Libya.
Vandewalle is correct that so far the discussions have achieved very
little if anything but that is in part because the discussions have not
been with the parties that count, CIA-linked Colonel Haftar's militias,
the Islamist militias such as Libyan Dawn, and the alternative
government of
Omar al-Hassi.
Professor Vandewalle is all for foreign intervention. According to him this is the way forward for Libya:
What Libya needs instead is a European peacekeeping force that would
shield the fledgling government from the various armed groups currently
contesting its power, and one another, and allow it to rebuild state
institutions.
The article is dated November 11th. Back on Thursday
November 5th the
Libyan Supreme Court ruled that the June elections were illegal and the
new government unconstitutional. This is surely relevant to
Vandewalle's policy recommendation since it implies that the
internationally recognized government is not constitutional.
The kindest explanation of this omission is that Vandewalle wrote the
article before this even happened in spite of the fact it was almost a
week ago. Perhaps he may think it is of no significance. There are many
things that Vandewalle apparently thinks are of no significance. Here
is his account of some recent events in Libya:
When the Islamist
parties fared poorly in the election in June for the G.N.C.’s successor,
the House of Representatives, fighting flared up in the western part of
the country. The Islamist militias, emboldened by several military
advances, including their overtaking the international airport in
Tripoli in August, have proclaimed that the G.N.C. would remain Libya’s
rightful legislative body.
There were no Islamist parties per se running in the elections. Everyone
ran as an independent. However, he probably is correct that those
elected who actually went to the meetings in Tobruk were mostly not
Islamists. But Vandewalle manages to describe these events without ever
mentioning CIA-linked General Haftar, his attempt to declare the GNC
suspended on Feb 14 , his Operation Dignity launched on 16 May 2014, his
attack on Islamist militia bases in Benghazi, and the burning of
parliament by his allies the Zintan brigades. Without understanding this
background there is no way that that the public can really fathom what
has been happening in Libya. Perhaps this is the entire purpose of an
expert academic ignoring the obvious. Vandewalle manages to go through
an entire interview without mentioning General Khalifa Haftar nor does
his name even come up in his entire op-ed in the New York Times.
Of course this sort of omission is not uncommon in respectable media.
Here is a Reuters account of the attack on the Libyan parliament
The gunmen are not identified. The attack is not linked to Haftar
at all or his operations in Benghazi. There is editorial propaganda
against the parliament that was attacked almost seeming to justify the
attack. Contrast that with the Al Jazeera coverage below which links the
operation with Haftar allies, the Zintan brigades, and to the beginning
of Haftar's Operation Dignity that began earlier in Benghazi.
Vandewalle realizes that Libya is on the verge of a civil war and also
notes correctly that countries such as the UAE and Egypt are intervening
against Islamist militias and that Qatar supports some Islamist groups.
He thinks dialogue is impossible because the militias flush with
weapons have no incentive to cooperate. He fails to mention that the
anti-Islamist militias of Genral Haftar have the support of the Tobruk
government led by the same prime minister Al-Thinni who called General
Haftar's attack on parliament
attack on parliament illegal and noted that there was a warrant out for his arrest. He was prime minister of that government as well. Now his
government has given the green light to attack not just Benghazi as Haftar is doing but to liberate Tripoli as well:
Libya’s
internationally recognized government ordered on Tuesday its military,
led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar, to advance on the capital
Tripoli and called for a civil disobedience there against armed Islamist
groups. Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani’s cabinet said in statement
posted on Facebook that the armed forces have the green light to
“liberate” Tripoli “and state institutions from the grip of armed
groups.”
No doubt the professor simply forgot the relationship of Haftar's militia to the present government.
Vandewalle remarks that the US has no appetite for boots on the
ground in Libya. However, it does have special forces there since it has
been involved in kidnapping terror suspects and at one time they
attempted to train Libyan forces. Now due to security conditions in
Libya this job has been moved out of country, even to the UK which
recently closed their program down after the
trainees did not behave as proper proxies for western imperial aims.
Vandewalle concludes:
The
responsibility for creating a peacekeeping force for Libya falls
squarely on European states. Considering their longstanding economic and
political interests in North Africa and their concerns over
immigration, it is they, after all, that have the most to lose from
Libya’s collapse. Libya is part of the European Union’s soft underbelly.
The long-standing economic and political interests are no doubt
related to the history of Libya as a colony of Italy and in part of
France.
As in the 2011 intervention the Europeans should spearhead the
intervention, "with logistical and intelligence support from the United
States". Vandewalle notes that France has openly called for
intervention.
Apparently Vandewalle gets around since he was testifying
before an Italian parliamentary commission on foreign affairs in Rome on
Oct. 24 and says:
I was struck by how frankly some members were
arguing that only a European-led force could provide a way out of the
current impasse. The original notion some European politicians held —
that a beefed-up U.N. mission was needed — has lost its appeal.
Vandewalle suggests that the model for the intervention should be
the International Assistance Force(ISAF)used to put down the Taliban in
Afghanistan. The problem is that ISAF came into being only after a
US-led attack on
the Taliban in concert with the Northern Alliance. Only after the
Taliban had been driven out of government did ISAF enter the picture.
Operation Enduring Freedom began on October 1st 2001 and ISAF was formed
only in December two months later.
Vandeville sees the EU peace-keeping role as strengthening the Tobruk
government through protecting infrastructure and state institutions.
However, much of that infrastructure is in the control of Islamist
militias.Vandewalle warns that Europe must intervene decisively or face
another failed Arab state. So just how did Libya, now trending towards a
so-called failed state, get to this point?