US general wants 5,000 more troops in Afghanistan

General John Nicholson the top U.S. general in Afghanistan claims that the U.S. and Europe need to send 5,000 more troops to Afghanistan in order to break a stalemate between Afghan forces versus the Taliban and Islamic State.

General Nicholson told the Sunday Times of London: “We cannot afford to walk away from Afghanistan. This is where the war against terrorism started on 9/11. Failure here would embolden terrorists globally.” Nicholson is expected to request the additional forces at an upcoming meeting of NATO in May. He is reported to have the backing of US Defense Secretary James Mattis as well as the National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. Trump appears to be involving the US further in wars that he had criticised as being costly and without merit. Now he is spending more on the military and increasing US involvement in several areas. He has already boasted that he would defeat the Islamic State in Afghanistan this year as discussed in a recent Digital Journal article.

At present, there are 8,400 U.S. troops in Afghanistan along with 5,000 troops from other NATO countries. Nicholson said that the Afghan government controlled about 62 percent of Afghanistan's people and 57 percent of the territory. Nicholson has been asking for more troops for some time but now he has set out the number he wants. The civil war in Afghanistan has been going on now for 16 years. While Nicholson calls the war a stalemate, it appears rather that the Taliban are continuing to gain ground. NATO countries may be becoming weary of sending troops to what seems a never-ending war so that most of the new troops could be from the U.S. The result may be just to extend the war longer.

The Islamic State(IS) is also in Afghanistan but mainly in one province and is a minor factor compared to the Taliban. Dawlat Waziri, a spokesperson for the Afghan Ministry of Defense said: “Daesh is not that strong that they show and it is not just Daesh in Afghanistan”. Daesh is another name for IS. Waziri said that the strength of the group is exaggerated. However, they have claimed responsibility for some attacks in Kabul the capital including one on a military hospital as shown on the appended video.

US general claims 30 percent of Afghanistan population is controlled or contested by Taliban

The Taliban and allies control about 10 percent of the population. However, another 20 percent is contested leaving the Afghan government with control of 70 percent of the population.

The claim above is made by General John Nicholson, the commander of NATO's Resolute Support and US Forces in Afghanistan. Nicholson characterized the situation as a positive development since the Taliban are operating primarily in rural areas. At a press briefing Nicholson said to reporters:

“We believe the Afghans control or heavily influence 68 to 70 percent of the population. We believe the enemy control or influence about 10 percent of the population. And then the balance, roughly a quarter, is in play, is contested. This is a positive in the sense of the majority of the population is under control of the government forces and this primarily the population centers, and so on, and the enemy is primarily in more rural areas that have less impact on the future of the country.”

Although Nicholson downplayed the importance of the Taliban presence in rural areas, the Taliban raises funds in the areas, recruits and trains fighters. The Taliban then launch punishing attacks on urban areas including the capital Kabul. Nicholson also claimed that recent reports of concerted attacks on some provincial capitals were exaggerating the security situation, When asked what percentage of Afghan territory the Taliban control, Nicholson would not answer and said only that his estimate is based upon population control.

The Long War Journal estimate based on press reports, military and government statements, and the claims of the Taliban, is that the Taliban control about 10 percent of the districts and contests another 12 percent. Control means the Taliban are openly administering a district providing services, security, and running their own court services. In contested areas, the government may be in contol of the central city of the district but little else. The Taliban often occupy a center briefly and then leave as the cost of holding it is regarded as too high. The Journal also says it is likely that additional districts are also contested or controlled by the Taliban. These additional districts could very well bring the total population contested or controlled close to that of Nicholson. The Taliban control and contest more territory than at any time since US-lead forces invaded after the 9/11 attack.

Nicholson also said that there were up to 1,300 Islamic State fighters in Afghanistan. He claimed they received aid and guidance from the leadership in Syria. While Nicholson still described the overall situation as positive since the Afghan government controlled most of the population and larger cities, General Joe Dunford Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the situation was a stalemate in remarks to the U.S. Senate. As well as controling more territory than ever since the invasion, the Taliban is closing in on a number of important provincial capitals including Talin Kot, Lashkar Gah, and Kunduz. Kunduz already was taken once by the Taliban and then recaptured.

U.S. may change plans about cutting troop strength in Afghanistan

Commander of the US forces in Afghanistan General John Nicholson claims there is a shift in the relationship of the Taliban to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. He claims this is complicating anti-terrorism efforts.

Nicholson claims the closer relationship has developed since the death of the former Taliban leader Mohammad Omar, who was replaced by Mullah Akhtar Mansour. Nicholson says that Mansour cultivated the closer relationship as a means of winning support in a leadership battle. This development could influence plans to cut US troops in Afghanistan. The presence of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan has all along been the reason for U.S. and NATO forces to go into Afghanistan in the first place even though for some while the numbers of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan were not large. A perceived resurgence of the group could be a justification for the U.S. not cutting their forces or even increasing them even though the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan is supposedly ended.

Nicholson said: "You see a more overt cooperation between the Taliban and these designated terrorist organizations. Our concern is that if the Taliban were to return, that because of their close relationships with these groups, that they would offer sanctuary to these groups."Nicholson is reviewing a plan that would see U.S. troop numbers in Afghanistan cut in half to 5,500 by 2017. Some U.S. politicians and Afghan commanders are requesting that Washington reconsider its plans. Nicholson would not comment on the review which is to be presented this June. The warning about Al Qaeda is rather suspicious given that U.S. officials estimates that there are just 100 to 300 Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan although some claim the estimate is low.

It is the Taliban who are still the main threat to the US-supported Afghan government. It numbers its fighters in the thousands and has retaken swaths of territory in the southern province of Helmand, and even took over the northern city of Kunduz for a short period. A recent attack on Kunduz has been repulsed with more than 50 Taliban reported killed but the Taliban remain on the outskirts where they took over some military outposts. The Taliban just announced their spring offensive.

U.S. operations in Afghanistan have already picked up since the Islamic State in Khorasan has been designated as a terrorist group this January. In just the first 3 months of this year the U.S. has carried out nearly 100 strikes against the group mainly in the province of Nangarhar in eastern Afghanistan. The Islamic State and the Taliban are enemies with the IS attacking the Taliban as well as the government. Another source gives slightly different figures about the number of attacks: In the three months since the Obama Administration gave forces in Afghanistan authority to strike ISIS even when they don’t pose a direct threat, the Pentagon says some 70-80 such airstrikes have been launched, with 70% to 80% of them in Nangarhar Province.General Charles Cleveland said that airstrikes had been quite effective in that at one point the Islamic State controlled six to eight districts but now controls only two to three. Before this announcement, the U.S. had not officially confirmed that the IS controlled any territory in Afghanistan. Cleveland estimates that there are around 1,000 Islamic State fighters in Afghanistan, considerably more than Al Qaeda.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/op-ed-al-qaeda-growth-in-afghanistan-may-signal-more-usa-intervention/article/463104#ixzz46bDf3zAx