Tribal clashes hit southern Libyan city of Sabha

While much of Libya is divided up into areas controlled by the rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk, some parts of the south are still controlled by tribal groups who often clash with each other.

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In southern Libya, the largest city of Sabha has seen fighting break out between members of the Tuareg and Tebu tribes for control of the key city. According to the city's mayor, Hamed al-Khayali, the conflict began in a suburb four days ago after a member of the Tebu tribe was killed at a checkpoint. He said that in all around 29 members of the Tuareg tribe were killed and four more wounded in the clashes. A local Tebu official said eight Tebu were killed and 18 wounded. The mayor said attempts to negotiate a truce had failed. The Tuareg are also active in northern Mali.

While Sabha is nominally under the control of the Tripoli government, military officials in Tripoli did not respond to a request for help to restore order in the city. The Tuareg control much of south-western Libya. The Tuareg were supporters of Gadaffi when he was in power and there were clashes between the two groups then, but Gadaffi was able to keep a semblance of order in the area compared to the present situation. There have been shortages of many supplies developing in the south as the two rival governments compete with each other and fight with Islamic State militants as well. Flights from Tripoli have been cancelled.

Sabha is about 700 km south of Tripoli. The Tripoli government is not recognized internationally but controls the capital and much of western Libya.

There were also clashes near the city of Derna on the coast in eastern Libya. The Islamic State has been driven out of the city by an umbrella group of rival jihadists. However the Islamic State still occupies mountainous areas near the city. A spokesperson for the military of the Tobruk government that controls most of the surrounding area said that three IS fighters had been killed in clashes with its troops.

Many countries applaud flawed Libyan peace agreement signed only by one side

There are two rival governments in Libya, the internationally-recognized government in the east, the House of Representatives(HoR) located in Tobruk and the General National Congress government located in Tripoli.

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Since last fall, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya(UNSMIL). guided by their Special Envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, has been attempting to broker a deal between the two governments that would see the formation of a unity government, or Government of National Accord as it is now called. A fourth draft of an agreement was received positively by the GNC. However, the Tobruk government rejected it and at first was going to exit the talks. No doubt after external pressure, it passed amendments to the draft that reduced the power of the GNC government to virtually nil. While not all of the Tobruk amendments were included in a fifth draft,or revised fourth draft, enough were included to remove any powers given to the GNC in the original fourth draft.

When the groups convened to sign the final draft, the GNC group was confronted with a document that had been amended without any consultation or agreement. At the same time, their own amendments were ignored. The GNC representatives left the talks on July 8. They indicated that they would return only if their amendments were to be seriously discussed. In a recent article I trace the process in detail and indicated that in my view there appeared to be a concerted effort to ensure that the draft prepared would not be signed by the GNC. Whether this was planned or not this is what has happened as described in another recent article. The aim seems to be not to forge a peace agreement between the two parties but to isolate the Tripoli government and its militia the Libya Dawn who also reject the draft. The whole idea that there could be a political solution with one of two rival governments not signing on strikes me as absurd. However, if the aim is to isolate one government and provide international support for the Tobruk government the strategy makes sense. Nothing is regarded as absurd when the power brokers desire it.

Bernardino Leon called the signing of the draft "an important step for Libya." This may be because it signals that the international community is going to support the Tobruk government, whose HoR is the sole legitimate legislative authority in the Government of National Accord. The GNC are to be the majority of 90 in a Council of 120 members that has an advisory role in the government. If the GNC does not participate or sign the agreement then it is not clear how that will work out. Indeed, it is not clear how the process will go ahead without either the Tripoli government or its armed forces agreeing to the plan. Some ideas are presented in an op ed in the Libya Herald a pro-Tobruk news outlet. As discussed in another article other analysts see implementation of the peace plan without the GNC or Libya Dawn as unworkable. The agreement that has been signed does not require the GNC group to sign on. Imagine, an agreement supposed to solve a conflict between two rival governments that does not require both of the parties to sign the agreement.

UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon and the EU representative for foreign affairs Federica Mogherini both have issued statements praising the signing of the draft. They do not explain why signing an agreement in which one main party is not a signatory, and which they reject, is to be praised as progress. I am waiting for reporters to ask this question. The U.S. State Departmentjoined the chorus in praising the agreement: State Department spokesperson John Kirby said in a news briefing July 13 that a United Nations-brokered deal reached in Morocco offers Libya "the best path forward to peace and stability." (State Department/Twitter)Ahmed al -Jarwan, president of the Arab Parliament, said the signing of the draft agreement was an important step towards ending the conflict and restoration of peace and security in Libya. None of these statements make any sense when one party to the conflict is left out and still has its loyal armed militia and functioning government. All is not sweetness and light if you read accounts from the other side. It is quite unlikely you will because search engines do not usually pick up articles from sources such as the Libya Observer, a pro-Tripoli outlet.

Here is an example of their reporting: Revolutionaries from western Libya, Gharyan revolutionaries, and Misrata revolutionary brigades have each issued a statement to reject the unilateral initializing of the UNSMIL draft in Skhirat, Morocco. They all reiterated their support for the General National Congress as the only legitimate representative of Libya, refusing as well the ex-regime followers’ attempts to launch a coup against 17 February revolution and calling for unity in the face of all plotters.

In the south, Sabha municipality issued a statement rejecting the signing of the draft by one of its members claiming that the member did not represent the municipality. Leon seems to have gone searching for mayors and other local officials who would sign on to the draft.

While Leon claims the door is still open for the GNC to return to the dialogue this appears to be mainly to sign the draft and then work on details. Leon seems to have not responded to the demand to consider their amendments as he had done with the Tobruk government previously. Far from being a step forward, the signing of the draft is a recipe for continued civil war. Leon has clearly tried to divide those in support of the Tripoli government. He met with commanders of militia in Misrata without informing or getting permission from the general staff. He insists that there is a parallel military dialogue with the forces of the rival governments. He claimed weeks ago that he would meet with Tobruk forces representatives in Cairo. He has not reported back nor did he ever mention with whom he was meeting. The head of the Tobruk forces Khalifa Haftar has said repeatedly that he would never agree to a cease fire with the Tripoli militia nor would he negotiate with them since he considers them terrorists. Now that the GNC and their militia are out of the deal perhaps Haftar can continue with his Operation Dignitythat he began in May 2014, and complete his military solution to the divided country. However, now he will have broader international support, not just that of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There is even a UN Security Council resolution supporting the draft. Leon has not given us a clue as to how he intends to go forward from this point.

Peace talk dialogue group meets even though participants from one rival government not present

Last Thursday, Bernardino Leon, the UN special envoy for Libya convened a meeting of participants in the Libyan peace talks dialogue without the presence of the Tripoli government one of two rival Libyan governments.

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The other rival government negotiators, from the internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) in Tobruk, were in attendance as were some independents. Those present agreed to an amended fourth draft for a planned Government of National Accord and signed it. Leon hailed the event as an agreement, when in fact as I pointed out in a recent article, there was no agreement since one key party did not sign. Indeed, the Tripoli, GNC government told their negotiators not to sign until amendments were made. If you look for the latest press releases from UNSMIL the latest one as of this writing is on July 1st. The link to thelater report of the Thursday meeting still works but is not listed as one of their news releases.

One interpretation of what happened last Thursday is that it is a partial deal that will see the Tobruk negotiators and some independents sign on to the last draft, as has already happened. If the GNC will not sign, the process of forming the Government of National Accord will simply continue without them, giving the House of Representatives almost complete control of the process. This scenario was suggested as a positive step in an Op Ed in the Libya Herald by Azza Maghur. The same scenario is discussed in an article in the Middle East Eye by Matia Toaldo, a policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

He describes the limited deal as follows: This would be an agreement signed by some of the factions siding with the parliament in Tobruk along with most of the factions in Misrata, the main stakeholder of the rebel Libya Dawn coalition. In this “limited agreement” scenario, the rump General National Congress - the unrecognised parliament sitting in Tripoli - would not sign the deal.."While the deal would have some advantages for the international community, Toalda sees it as unworkable. There will be many Tripoli-linked militias who will be hostile to the new government. These groups would not voluntarily relinquish control of the capital. This is surely not surprising. Toaldo calls these groups "spoilers" but why should they accept a government that they did not agree to and in which they have no power?

What the deal would do is start a civil war. As Toalda notes, the situation would legitimize the military activities of Khalifa Haftar, the CIA-linked head of the Tobruk armed forces. This is precisely what some on the Tobruk side and Haftar himself want to happen. The new government would ask for international intervention, something Toalda claims neither the U.S. or Europeans want to do. However, they might be happy enough to provide arms and other support for Haftar and certainly Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia would help out. Toalda sees the agreement leading not to peace but to war and he also doubts that there is enough in the agreement to persuade the moderate Misrata militia to join the deal.

Leon met not with militia commanders suggested by the senior command of the Tripoli forces, but instead with commanders from Misrata without even getting clearance from Tripoli. Toalda's analysis would suggest that Leon's aim might have been to divide the Tripoli militia and have one group sign the deal. Tripoli was angry at this move. It had offered to nominate commanders to meet with Leon.

Toalda's description of events is much more detailed and accurate than most accounts. He notes that Leon had produced five draft agreements: The fourth was supposed to be the last, a “take it or leave it” moment after which those who were against a deal would get individual sanctions. But the House of Representatives in Tobruk rejected the draft as unbalanced and approved a list of 52 amendments for the 63 articles-long text.

The Tripoli government was generally supportive of the fourth draft with only a few hard liners rejecting it.

Toalda notes that major points of disagreement had to do with the power of the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk, which was the sole legislative body and that of the GNC of Tripoli. But there was also disagreement about the role of Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army. The parties as well disagreed about how long the term of the HoR was to last — and whether the laws and appointments it had made up until now were to be repealed or validated. This would include the appointment of Haftar as commander of the Libyan National Army.

The UN mission, without consulting Tripoli delegates, made amendments that resulted in a fifth draft. The Misrata moderate group were particularly incensed at the reduction in powers of the State Council. It became in effect a merely advisory body, lacking the power to block legislation from the HoR and even in making major appointments or passing a non-confidence motion against the government. The new draft is ambiguous about the role of the Libyan National Army. It could lead to the present Tobruk army led by Haftar playing a prominent role in the future government. As Toaldo puts it: Even if based on grounds of legitimacy, an agreement that establishes the superiority of both the House of Representatives in Tobruk and the existing Libyan National Army, and therefore Haftar, is not going to fly with those who took arms against both, even with the moderates in Misrata.It is difficult to see how it could be based on grounds of legitimacy from the point of view of those associated with Tripoli in any event. The Tobruk government for them is illegitimate according to the Supreme Court Ruling last November which had declared that elections in June 2014 for the HoR were unconstitutional. The GNC government refers to the HoR constantly as the "dissolved parliament." While Toaldo does not rule out a limited agreement resulting from international pressures he thinks this unlikely.

Toaldo thinks that it is also possible that various groups in conflict weary of the war come up with their own peace proposals. In fact this has happened between Tripoli and several militia groups opposed to them who were able to agree to ceasefires, prisoner exchanges and some degree of normalization of relations. Khalifa Haftar is not likely to give up on his attempts through Operation Dignity to defeat Islamic militias associated with the Tripoli government.

UN may force Tripoli government to reject latest peace deal

The most recent fourth draft of a UN-sponsored plan for a unity government in Libya was originally received positively by the Tripoli government and negatively by the internationally-recognized House or Representatives(HoR) government based in Tobruk.

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There was some doubt that the Tobruk government would even attend the talks when they were renewed last Friday. No doubt there was great pressure for the HoR representatives to return. They did so after passing proposed amendments to the draft which would deprive the General National Congress government in Tripoli of any real power. When the Tripoli delegates arrived to renew the dialogue they found that they were discussing not the original fourth draft but one amended in a number of ways, but all favorable to the Tobruk government and weakening the power of the GNC group, The full text of the new "fifth" draft can be found at the Libya Herald but can be accessed only if you subscribe. Amendments proposed by Tripoli were ignored in the new draft. Apparently no reporters have bothered to look at the document and report on it,. The document does not appear on the UN site. All changes were put into the document without the consultation or agreement of the Tripoli group. There was no agreement after the talks last weekend. The parties returned to Libya to talk to their governments.

Amending the draft without consultation was not the only slap in the face to the Tripoli government. The special envoy to Libya who arranges the talks, Bernardino Leon, had discussions with the Misrata militia leaders without ever consulting or receiving approval from the senior officials of the Tripoli forces. Leon insists he is following a parallel series of discussions with the military of each side. On the Tobruk side, the commander of the Libyan forces Khalifa Haftar has made it clear he will neither negotiate with nor sign a ceasefire with Libya Dawn the main Tripoli military force.This apparently is not regarded as an interference with or blocking of the peace process that might warrant his being sanctioned. Leon said he would meet with representatives of the Tobruk military in Cairo. No names are mentioned. The name Khalifa Haftar is seldom mentioned in many reports on Libya lately.

News headlines about the talks all emphasize that the talks are not convening because the Tripoli government did not come. This was clear earlier as I reported in an article yesterday. The Tripoli news sources had announced yesterday they were not coming. News agencies might not have noticed but the bosses behind the UN did. Here is just a sample of what the Libya Observer claims as to what happened, according to GNC Speaker Nuri Abu Sahmain as he addressed protesters opposed to the draft plan:He told the protesters that Peter Millett had contacted one of HoR boycotters and threatened him to accept the draft. "The British ambassador, who is not accredited to us, asked the HoR boycotter to urge other boycotters to go to the GNC today and press it to ratify the draft. He threatened him that the murder of 37 tourists in Tunisia would be placed on Libya because the attacker trained in Libya." He added that Millet has also threatened to include the unnamed HoR boycotter in the UN sanctions list if he didn't encourage the GNC to sign the draft.An HoR boycotter is a person elected to the HoR but who boycotted meetings. Sahmain claimed that the French Ambassador Antoine Sivan met the GNC dialogue team and threatened the Second Deputy Speaker with a negative outcome if the GNC did not sign the draft, According to Sahmain, Sivan said;"If you didn't sign the draft, a civil war would erupt in your country, assets of the Central Bank of Libya would be frozen, plan B would be implemented to seize oil ports and fields and airports."There is already a civil war in Libya. Who exactly would seize oil ports and assets of the Central Bank? I presume it would be the internationally recognized government using the forces of commander CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar and with international blessing and support. Amazing that such disturbing reports are entirely missing from articles on the talks by at least half a dozen prominent news agencies including Reuters, and AFP. Are they really unaware of what is being said by the GNC, or do they know but not think it is worth reporting? The Libya Observer is a pro-Tripoli news site but surely it is worth finding out and reporting on what the other side believes to be the case.

A Reuters summary of the new draft is accurate enough and points out that the 120 member State Council is now a consultative body. In the original fourth draft,the State Council with 90 of the 120 members being from the GNC would have been able to block legislation of the HoR, the only legislative body, if a majority of the Council opposed it. This gave the GNC group some actual power. No doubt that is why it suddenly disappeared when the groups convened last Friday to discuss the draft and found a fifth draft in place that took away this power.

As often happens, the UN security council becomes involved with Libya, in this instance pushing parties to sign the fourth draft, as amended to make the GNC impotent, on pain of facing sanctions:The United Nations Security Council has urged acceptance of the latest peace accord and warned that it was still prepared to sanction those who blocked political transition.The Security Council said it was ready to act against “those who threaten Libya’s peace, stability and security or that undermine the successful completion of its political transition”. It gave unqualified backing to UNSMIL chief Bernardino Leon and Draft Five of the Peace Accord. It welcomed last week’s negotiations in Morocco and urged rapid agreement and signing of the deal.

Surely talking with militia in Misrata without approval of Tripoli military authorities threatens the peace process as does making amendments to the fourth draft without consulting with or getting the approval of the Tripoli negotiators. Maybe the UN should sanction Leon. Earlier, the Tobruk government pulled out of negotiations and did not return until they had a draft that they knew the Tripoli government could not accept. The Tobruk government was not threatened with sanctions for pulling out. Most of their demands were met. Now we are back at the same play but this time it seems there is a concerted plan as I described a few days ago:Leon may have introduced amendments that he knows Tripoli disapproves as a means of forcing the Tripoli government to reject the agreement and then Tripoli can be blamed for the failure of the talks. This could make Tobruk look to be for peace but now the talks having failed the Haftar military solution Operation Dignity will be justified. Unlike the UN Haftar has always maintained that there is a military solution to the crisis and that a political agreement is highly unlikely.We should know what will happen by the end of this week and perhaps by then there will be some news on the parallel talks with military forces of the two sides.

There is no news of any meeting of Leon with the Libya National Army representatives in Cairo. There is news that Libya Dawn has rejected the present draft. There appears no hope of a ceasefire or any agreement between the two military forces. This may not matter since the plan may be for the international community to rally behind Khalifa Haftar and the Tobruk government with the Tripoli government sanctioned and Libya Dawn becoming an enemy of peace and a proper target for Haftar's Operation Dignity.

Rival Libyan governments meet to discuss unity government UN draft plan

Talks to form a unity government in Libya resumed in Skhirat Morocco resumed on Friday June 26. The UN special envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon, provided the two rival governments with the 4th draft of a unity government plan prior to the meeting.

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The meeting is taking place nearly three weeks after Leon had provided the two sides with the draft. The Tripoli government was positive from the beginning but suggested an amendment that would give some recognition to the Supreme Court decision back in November that ruled the elections for the rival House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk were unconstitutional and the Tobruk-based parliament should be dissolved. The internationally-recognized government in Tobruk has always rejected the ruling and the international community has paid no attention either. The UN said it was studying the matter after the decision. It has said nothing about it since. The Tripoli amendment will not be acceptable to the HoR representatives. I expect the amendment might be used as a negotiating tool to extract concessions from Tobruk. Samir Ghattas, spokesperson for the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said that he hoped that this would be the final session of the unity talks. That same hope was expressed at the last meetings.

The Tobruk government at first simply rejected the fourth draft entirely. No doubt it was pressured by western powers to approve the draft and continue with the talks. The government at first was split upon whether it would continue with the talks but eventually agreed to attend after proposing amendments that would in effect take away any significant political power from the Tripoli government. There is no way the Tripoli government can accept the Tobruk amendments. More details of the amendments and their significance can be found in this article.The HoR would be the sole legislative body and the State Council would be reduced to an advisory role with no power to block legislation if the Tobruk amendments were accepted. The Tripoli representatives would have far less than a majority in the Council even at that. Nevertheless Leon said:"We are getting closer to a solution. Obviously, the fact that all the participants in the dialogue have accepted the fourth draft as a basis for a final solution is extremely encouraging."Amendments proposed by Tobruk cannot possibly be accepted by Tripoli since they would render the Tripoli government completely impotent. The Tripoli amendment can never be accepted by Tobruk either since Tobruk does not even recognize the legitimacy of the decision. The acceptance of both of the fourth draft as a basis for negotiation does nothing to solve a continuing conflict about the nature of the unity government.

Mattia Toaldo of the European Council on Foreign Relations had a more realistic assessment:"It is as complicated as it has ever been, but now there is a solution that takes into account the complications. Local ceasefires cannot hold for long absent of a national agreement."It remains to be seen whether there actually is a solution. The ceasefires Toaldo refers to were negotiated between the Tripoli government and various militia in the west with which they have fought. The UN was not involved.

Leon realizes that any political solution is possible only if there is a parallel military solution. He intends to meet with the military forces of each side. However, he met with the Misrata militia without ever clearing the issue with the official military of the Tripoli government. This resulted in a complaint to the UN by the Tripoli government. Leon has yet to meet with the military of the Tobruk government. The head of that military, Khalifa Haftar, has said many times he would never agree to a ceasefire with the Tripoli militias. Leon cannot even go to Tobruk. Last time he went his plane could not land because of protesters. He is to meet representatives of the Libyan military in Cairo. Khalifa Haftar's name is not even mentioned even though he is the most important person in the armed forces of Tobruk. Haftar thinks that there is a military solution to the problem of a divided government and that is his Operation Dignity that began in May 2014 and continues to this day with the support of the Tobruk government. The UN manages to somehow ignore all these relevant facts. How do you negotiate a ceasefire with someone who refuses to negotiate with the other forces, that is Libya Dawn. He calls them terrorists to be defeated. Leon so far has reported only that he met with the Misrata militia as part of the parallel military meetings.

Tripoli and Tobruk Libyan governments both object to EU plans to combat trafficking of migrants

The head of the internationally-recognized Libyan government's air force warned European countries that any ships entering the Tobruk government's territorial waters without permission will be targeted by air strikes.

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The warning by Saqr Al-Jaroushi came as European Foreign Ministers agreed yesterday that they will launch a naval operation to combat people bringing thousands of migrants across the Mediterranean to Europe usually Italy or Malta. The European Union has yet to gain consent for operations within Libyan coastal waters from the internationally recognized government. Much of the coast is in areas in the west of Libya controlled by the Tripoli or GNC government. The EU does not have their permission either. Al-Jaroushi said: "Any vessel found in Libyan waters without previous cooperation or permission will be targeted by the air force." The Tripoli or National Salvation Government(SG), as it calls itself, also expressed concern about the plan. Given that the EU expressed concern about obtaining consent for the operation from the two governments, it is surprising that it would go ahead even on a limited basis.

The Salvation Government Ministry of the Interior issued a press release on the issue:The Ministry indicated that the EU’s operation could be of bad effects since there was no previous coordination with the SG and because of Libya’s status quo, pointing out that Libya will not shoulder responsibility for financial commitments to the operation or for the hazards facing the immigrants’ lives neither in the sea nor in shelter centers on Libya’s land.

The press release called for explaining the kind of measures that the operation will follow regarding the interception of the immigrants..There should be some effective measures that guarantee the eradication of this phenomenon taking into account that Libya is currently suffering from a number of crises, let alone that any operation must adhere to Libya’s sovereignty by asking for approval from the specialized authorities.” The Ministry concluded.

Unlike the Tobruk government, the Tripoli government did not threaten air attacks against any ship that entered their coastal waters.

The EU initiative will apparently be limited to intelligence-gathering by submarines, warships, drones, and helicopters since it wants UN support for wider operations and also permission from Libyan authorities. The wider plan is to disrupt the trafficking business, and to capture and destroy their ships, perhaps even in Libyan territorial waters.

The UN is attempting to have the two rival Libyan governments agree to a unity government and a ceasefire. There is no news emanating from the UN on what is happening. The UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, hoped to have an agreement by the beginning of Ramadan that started last Thursday. The Tripoli government complained that Leon had gone to Misrata to talk with militia commanders there without getting permission from the government. It appears that there may be a split within Libya Dawn with a new force being assigned to provide security to Tripoli and the surrounding area. It is quite foolish and unethical for Leon to apparently try to deal with the military without the permission of the government. The head of the Tobruk armed forces, Khalifa Haftar has said many times that he will never sign a cease fire with Tripoli militia or negotiate with them. There is no word of Leon talking to Haftar. In May 2014, Haftar launched Operation Dignity to defeat Islamist militias in Libya, including those defending the rival government. The operation continues to this day. It is supported by the Tobruk government.

Tripoli government planes bomb Islamic State in Sirte

The Tripoli-based Libyan government has carried out air strikes on the city of Sirte, which is under Islamic State control. The strikes targeted a building where IS fighters had gathered, according to Tripoli officials.

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Witnesses to the attack said the bombing was accurate and wounded militants had been taken to the hospital. Officials were not able to give specific details on casualties.The Islamic State has recently expanded its control in Sirte, taking the last suburb held by Tripoli forces and also taking control of the airport. The Tripoli forces need to retake territory on the ground, but so far there is no sign of that happening.

The Islamic State appears to have lost all or almost all of its first stronghold city, Derna, recently. Forces of the Shura Council of Derna Jihadists, were attacking Islamic State fighters in the last area in the east of the city where IS fighters still held positions. The fighting has lasted more than a week and there have been many Islamic State casualties. Apparently some IS fighters have fled into the nearby mountains. The Shura Council fighters are also radical Islamists, some associated with Al Qaeda. Their retaking of Derna will not mean that the internationally-recognized Tobruk government will be able to take control even though it is an area of their jurisdiction. The group opposes the Tobruk government and their military chief, Khalifa Haftar. The Council is allied with the Tripoli government.

Mohamed Abdulkafi, a ministry of defence spokesperson for the self-described National Salvation Government said: "Warplanes of the air force of the National Salvation government conducted air strikes last night on an internal security building in Sirte.The strikes targeted a gathering of militants of Islamic State. No figures of casualties from the strikes have been reported so far."A witness said that the building bombed was the former headquarters of former leader Gadaffi's security forces in Sirte. Tripoli officials claim that many Gadaffi loyalists have joined IS in order to expand their power in spite of the fact that Gadaffi fiercely opposed Islamic militants.

The UN has been attempting to have the two rival governments in Tobruk and Tripoli agree to a unity government as a political solution to the crisis. The UN special envoy to Libya had hoped to have an agreement before Ramadan started. 

No agreement on Libyan unity government before Ramadan

When Bernardino Leon, UN special envoy to Libya announced that he had presented a 4th draft of a peace agreement to rival Tripoli and Tobruk government representatives, he said he hoped that an agreement could be finalized before the start of Ramadan.

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Ramadan starts Thursday, June 18, so it appears the deadline will be missed. The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has said almost nothing about the progress of the talks, although there has been reaction from both parties. After talks in Morocco, representatives went to Berlin, where the atmosphere seemed positive, even though the Tobruk government had rejected the draft and called its delegates back to Tobruk for consultation. In Berlin, the delegates were joined by officials from many countries and from the security council of the UN. All applauded the attempt to find a political solution to the Libyan crisis. The Berlin meetings were a week ago but there is little news about what is to happen next and when. At the Berlin meeting, Leon and western officials stressed how significant the meetings were even saying that they are a last chance for peace. Why is it that there is no news about what is planned for the future to continue the dialogue process? The UNSMIL has its own website complete with press releases. The last press release about the peace dialogues was to announce the meetings in Morocco on June 8. UNSMIL does not think it is worth reporting on the results of the Morocco meetings or the Berlin meetings. Even though Ramadan is tomorrow we have no update on what is happening.

Subsequent to the Berlin talks the Tobruk government again rejected the 4th draft . A committee set up by Tobruk to study the draft said that representatives were divided into three groups. One group thought that the draft was a basis for an agreement but required amendments. Another group wanted to return to the third draft which gave virtually no power to the Tripoli government or GNC and has already been vehemently rejected by that government. A third group wanted nothing to do with the dialogue and the UN process. The response of the Tripoli, GNC, or Salvation government as they call themselves was much more positive. The GNC said that it would present amendments to recognize the decision of the Libyan Supreme Constitutional Court in November of 2014 that the elections to the Tobruk House of Representatives in June 2014 were unconstitutional and the parliament should be dissolved. Tobruk is not about to agree to such an amendment since it does not recognize the validity of the Supreme Court decision. The amendment may be used as a negotiating tool which could be withdrawn if the other side also withdraws an amendment Tripoli could not accept.

Everyone is silent on another crucial issue. Even if a political agreement is reached it can not be implemented unless there is agreement between the main military forces of the two governments. In the case of Tripoli the main force is Libya Dawn itself an umbrella group of militias, although both governments have other militias loyal to them. One positive feature of the situation is that the Tripoli government has been able to make peace with some of its militia foes recently.

A recent article, reports that Misrata fighters have split from the coalition of militias aligned with the GNC or Tripoli government. A new militia group has been formed called the Sumood Front, formed to operate within the capital Tripoli and surrounding area. The article claims this new group has refused to negotiate with the opposition government. This makes no sense. The dialogue so far has only been with political representatives. Leon has talked of bringing Haftar and Libya Dawn together but it has never happened and the military meetings have not been mentioned for ages. The reason is clear, which for some unfathomable reason the article does not even mention. Haftar has said many times that he will never negotiate with Libya Dawn or agree to a cease fire with them. They are terrorists as far as he is concerned. The GNC has been in favor of negotiations from the beginning, what it rejected was the third draft of Leon's proposed peace plan. It was the Tobruk government which at one time withdrew from the dialogue until external pressure and UN agreement that the HoR would be the legitimate legislative authority in any unity government brought them back to the table. These last chance talks apparently are going nowhere but no one is talking about the issue, even though a week ago the talks were big news and of huge importance for Libya's future.

Rival Islamist radicals wrest control of key city Derna from Islamic State

Clashes between the Shura Council of Derna Jihadists and the Islamic State(IS) began back on June 9, after Islamist leader Nasser Aker was killed by IS gunmen.

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There has been fighting between the two groups ever since the Council declared a holy war against IS. Derna has a long history of hosting radical Islamists, even before Gadaffi was overthrown. The residents eagerly joined the battle to oust Gadaffi. Derna was the first city to come under control of the Islamic State, but many local residents did not agree with their ideology, nor their tactics, and the group fought with other long established jihadist groups in Derna. While the Islamic State does contain many locals who converted from other radical groups, some of the members and leaders are foreigners who have come from afar after having participated in battles in Syria and Iraq or Yemen. The Al-Qaeda linked Ansar Al Sharia group — blamed for the attack on the U.S. consul in Benghazi — has lost many members to IS and is one of the groups in Derna fighting against IS. The same group was subject to a recent U.S. attack targeting a well-known militant, although doubts remain as to whether Mokhtar Belmokhtar was killed.

The Shura group had made gains recently, taking some key facilities in Derna and driving IS out of many areas, but now it appears they have been completely driven out into a nearby mountain area. However, the Libya Herald is already reporting that IS is mounting a counter-attack and advancing towards the city.

The Tripoli government applauded the Shura Council and promised medical supplies and other aid to help defeat the Islamic State. The Tripoli government has been losing ground to IS in the city of Sirte and surrounding area, with IS recently taking control of the airport and of the last suburb of Sirte controlled by Tripoli. It contains an important power plant.

Although control of Derna may have been wrested from IS, the Shura Council is also a foe of the Tobruk government and will not allow it to take control. The Shura Council is an ally of the Tripoli government.

The UN presented a fourth draft plan for a unity government it hoped would be agreeable to the two rival governments. The Tripoli, GNC, or Salvation Government has reacted positively to the draft but wants to present some amendments before officially ratifying it. The Tobruk government has rejected the draft and the members of the HoR have varying opinions about what should be done. The UN special envoy, Bernardino Leon hoped to have an agreement before the start of Ramadan on Thursday. That seems unlikely if not impossible at this late date.

Tobruk delegates told to withdraw from Libya peace talks but go on to Berlin anyway

Bernardino Leon, the Special Envoy of the UN to Libya, who is facilitating dialogue between representatives of the two rival governments in Libya, said that the time had come to agree on a unity government.

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Leon hopes to have an agreement by June 17th. At a press conference in Berlin on Thursday where the talks are taking place, along with officials from numerous countries and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Leon said there were "very encouraging signs":“We now have a draft.This draft provides solution for most of the challenges we have been facing and will be facing in the coming months,The principles of inclusion, balance and consensus are there, at every step, at every institution and the principle that no side, no actor will be able to impose its views on the other."

I find it hard to believe that the UN press release fails to mention basic but crucial facts about what is taking place. The internationally-recognized government in Tobruk, or House of Representatives(HoR), has rejected the draft resolution that Leon is so positive about. Those attending as representatives of the HoR are not there as legitimate representatives of the HoR but only as individual persons. The Libya Herald, which is usually pro-Tobruk but at present seems to be pushing for a deal, reports: The House of Representatives (HoR) has decisively rejected the latest and supposedly final draft from UN for a peace settlement as unacceptable. In Tobruk, 55 members out of 72 attending today’s session are reported to have decided to suspend the HoR’s involvement in the process and to call back their delegates to Tobruk for talks.

Those who went to Berlin are no longer considered by the HoR to be representatives of the government but are there on a personal basis. Does it not bother Leon that the persons agreeing to the draft from the HoR are not representing the HoR any longer but were called back for consultations? Consider this report:

But Fradj Abou Hachem, spokesman for the parliament based in the eastern city of Tobruk, said anyone from his delegation who goes to Berlin would be doing so on a personal basis only. He said parliament was "very unhappy over the draft accord," particularly the proposal to give wide powers to the rival General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli, and "we have called the ... team home for consultations."

The rival GNC government in Tripoli and political parties associated with it have applauded the new draft

Even the National Commission for Human Rights in Libya that has been critical of the Libya Dawn militia that is associated with the Tripoli government welcomed the draft. But surely it is hardly a positive move to be pushing an agreement forward when the parties representing one side are not authorized to negotiate by that side. Leon notes that some are working against the agreement. As seems to be a protocol with the UN no person or group is specifically identified as being responsible for anything bad in LIbya unless it is the Islamic State:“The problem we have in Libya there are many negative forces operating against the agreement,”Those negative forces are first and foremost the internationally-recognized Tobruk government. There is no agreement and will not be until representatives from the two parties come to an agreement. Already there are demonstrations against the UN and Leon in several eastern cities:In a sign of the anger today, in the east in particular, protestors took to the street of Benghazi, Tobruk and other places to demonstrate against the draft, the Dialogue and Leon. They accused him of aiding and abetting the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorists. It was described in Benghazi as a “betrayal of the blood of the martyrs”.

New UN peace talks in Morocco ignore reality

The international community is putting pressure on representatives of the two rival governments in Libya to agree on a unity government. A meeting in Berlin is taking place today in Berlin with officials from world powers.

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The meeting ignores two aspects of reality on the ground that make any agreement in Berlin worse than useless.

The first reality is that the representatives from Tripoli had been told that they were not going as representatives of the Tobruk government which has rejected the deal. The second and even more significant reality is that any political agreement is impotent without an agreement between rival militias. The leader of the Tobruk government armed forces, Khalifa Haftar, has said that he will not meet with nor agree to a ceasefire with the Libya Dawn militia of the rival Tripoli government. He would never agree to a government that gives any power to Islamists as the fourth draft of a proposed UN political agreement does.

Essa Abdel Kauoum, spokesperson for the internationally recognized government of prime minister Abdul Al-Thinni in Tobruk, accused UN envoy Leon of giving in to Islamist demands to give them more power. The previous draft version was rejected by Tripoli precisely because it gave them almost no power and all the power to the Tobruk House of Representatives(HoR). The Tripoli government regards the HoR as illegitimate and dissolved after the Libyan Supreme Court last November ruled that last year's June elections were unconstitutional. The new draft gives another body with a majority of representatives from the GNC, Tripoli parliament, what is in effect a veto over proposed legislation from the House of Representatives if a majority reject the legislation. Kauoum said of the UN envoy's role: "Leon brought us to square one ... to appease an ideological group in a horrible way, He succumbed to extortion."

The important EU powers and the U.S. no doubt put pressure on the UN to draft a new plan that would at least give some power to the GNC faction, unlike the last draft which was so slanted towards Tobruk that it never had a chance of being accepted in Tripoli. There must be some irritation with the Tobruk government, which itself is guilty of extortion when they demanded recognition of the HoR as the sole legitimate legislative body as a condition of even participating in the talks that they refused to attend during one period. The new draft also involves a direct challenge to Khalifa Haftar, head of the Tobruk armed forces. Under the new deal the prime minister would be supreme army commander. This is hardly surprising as Tripoli is not about to agree to have their main military opponent head of the unity government armed forces. Haftar had to be sidelined. Of course this is in no way acceptable to Haftar or to the Tobruk governmet.

A Haftar aide, Colonel Mohammed Hegazi, denounced the UN plan yesterday as a "dirty political game"" that brings the Muslim Brotherhood to power and puts their top foe Haftar on the sidelines. He said: "No one can take over the army."

In spite of these realities, almost two dozen Libyan dialogue participants with Libya envoys of five five UN permanent Security Council members along with envoy from Italy, Spain and the EU. Leon said:The time has come to make an agreement. We can continue working for months and for years maybe to reach a perfect agreement, but Libya doesn't have the time."

Leon insisted that the new draft might be acceptable to both camps, though there are hard liners on both sides. The hard liners on the Tobruk side include the parliament and the head of the armed forces. Leon is hoping for an agreement by June 17th before Ramadan begins. German Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, echoed an opinion of Leon:. "There is no more time to wait for a fifth or sixth proposal from Bernardino Leon." By then the prospect of an agreement will probably become irrelevant as Haftar and the Tobruk decide that they will continue with Operation Dignity to defeat not just the Islamic State but the forces of the Tripoli government. They will probably have the support of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

A huge conglomeration of country officials issued a statement on the Libyan situation: Senior officials of the Governments of China, France, Germany, Italy, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States of America as well as of the European Union met today in Berlin with the Libyan delegates to the UN-led Political Dialogue and in the presence of the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG), Bernardino León.The Tobruk representatives were not there as representatives of the Tobruk government. It remains to be seen what reception they will receive if they return to Tobruk. There have been no talks between competing military forces as Haftar refuses to talk to Libya Dawn, the main militia associated with Tripoli. He says he will never accept a ceasefire with Islamist militias. Nevertheless the assembled countries applaud the talks:The Governments and the EU called on the Libyan leaders to grasp the opportunity to reconvene on an urgent basis under UN auspices in good faith so as to agree now on a Political Agreement which provides for a general ceasefire, for inclusive political institutions, including a Government of National Accord (GNA), and for interim security arrangements. They urged all Libyan parties to overcome the remaining obstacles to an agreement, to create a conducive environment for a lasting and inclusive solution to the current conflicts, to immediately cease all hostilities and to prevent all actions that may disturb the political process. At the same time, they underlined their resolve to elaborate appropriate measures against those who threaten Libya’s peace, stability or security, or obstruct or undermine the successful completion of its political transition.

So far the sanctions threat has been used against one fall guy from each side. Neither Al-Thinni prime minister of the Tobruk government nor Haftar both of whom have acted in ways that merit sanctions have been warned that they may face sanctions. Indeed Haftar is untouchable so far.

UN prepares sanctions against two Libyan fall guys

The UN long ago adopted a resolution that would allow sanctions to placed upon individuals who threaten the success of UN sponsored peace talks and attempts to forge an agreement on a unity government.

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There have been constant violations of the UN resolution by CIA-linked Khalifa Haftar and the internationally-recognized government of Abdullah Al Thinni in Tobruk but there are no sanctions proposed against either individual. A partial list of Haftar's acts subverting the peace process can be found here but the list is far from complete. He has lately made several attacks on civilian vessels. In large part he is responsible for the conflict since he started Operation Dignity in May 2014 against Islamist militias in Benghazi but also against the GNC government which was then headed by the same Abdullah al-Thinni who is now prime minister of the Tobruk government. Al-Thinni was supposed to arrest Al-Thinni after Haftar allies burned down the parliament buildings as part of Operation Dignity. Haftar also claimed bombing attacks over several nights on Tripoli with international support. Now Al-Thinni has appointed Haftar armed forces chief and claims to fully support Operation Dignity including an offensive against Tripoli announced just as peace talks were to take place. Haftar also bombed the one remaining Tripoli airport not once but twice just before the peace talks. In one case the delegates from Tripoli had to delay their departure until the following day. The UN can sanction any individual who is responsible for:".. attacks against any air, land, or sea port in Libya, or against a Libyan State institution or installation, including oil facilities, or against any foreign mission in Libya"Haftar has attacked both air ports and sea ports.

As well as supporting Haftar and his Operation Dignity which aims at a military solution to the conflict, Al-Thinni has been involved in attempts to violate the neutrality of the Central Bank and has formed a new oil company to compete with the National Oil Company. These two institutions have attempted to remain neutral in the conflict and have enabled the country to still function in spite of the existence of the rival governments. The UN can impose sanctions for any individual or organization that threatens these institutions:".. threatening or coercing Libyan State financial institutions and the Libyan National Oil Company, or engaging in any action that may lead to or result in the misappropriation of Libyan State funds."

Of course neither Al-Thinni nor Haftar need worry about being sanctioned since they are supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The US does not want these countries to fall into the orbit of Russia and buy arms from them rather than US-based arms providers. No doubt this is why the US recently released $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt.

The two worthies to be sanctioned are being proposed by the US, France, Spain, and Britain. This is supposed to help the the UN talks aimed at forming a unity government. The next talks are scheduled for June 8 in Skhirat Morocco. If the proposed sanctions are accepted Othman Maliqta, a militia leader associated loosely with the Tobruk government, and Abdulrahman Swehli a Misrata politician connected to the Tripoli government would be subject to a global travel ban and asset freeze. No doubt the idea is to show the great power of the UN and that it is neutral since it picks one fall guy from each side to serve as an example. Meanwhile, the real culprits Al-Thinni and Haftar can laugh all the way to their newly established bank. As the Libya Herald reports:The House of Representatives (HoR) President, Ageela Saleh, the only internationally recognized parliament in Libya, opened the new headquarters of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) in the eastern city of Al-Beida Thursday.He was accompanied by CBL Governor Ali Salam Hibri as well as a number of Representatives, a representative of the Abdullah Thinni government and head of Al-Beida city council.

I am sure these officials are shaking in their boots as they can expect UN sanctions quite soon for undermining the neutrality of the Libyan Central Bank.