3-day ceasefire agreed to by two warring tribes in Sebha area of southern Libya

(November 23) The ceasefire deal was brokered by a committee of notables and elders from the Sabha area and beyond. The clashes have been occuring in the city between the Awlad Sulaiman and Gadadfa tribes. The latter is the tribe of Muammar Gaddafi.

The cease-fire was to start on 11 PM Tuesday, November 22. Clashes had already killed 15 and wounded more than 35.

There are different reports as to how the clashes started but many reports claim it involved a monkey. The Libya Observer claims that a monkey belonging to a member of the Gadadfa tribe jumped on a group of schoolgirls and snatched the scarf of one leaving her bare-headed in the street. In the south in general and in the Awald Sulaim tribe this is regarded as shameful. In retaliation, tribal relatives of the girl killed not only the monkey but the owner as well, setting off the clashes between the two groups.

Elders and notables had been trying without success from the start to defuse the situation as the clashes have caused considerable damage and displaced some citizens from the areas where the fighting is taking place. Shelling has often been haphazard. Senior figures in the tribes are backed by militias.

A member of the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) government from Sabha city, Musbah Doma, accused the Libyan National Army forces of the HoR commanded by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, of fueling the conflict in Sabha saying: “Haftar is trying to take advantage of the tribal clashes within Sabha and turn it into a political one. Dignity Operation military vehicles were seen in the clashes zones in Sabha in the very first day of the fight, so we had contacted the “General Command” and they told us the vehicles were given to Nasir Benjarid and he stole them and used them in Sabha conflict.” Dignity Operation is Haftar's operation to remove Islamists from Libya including some of the militia who support the rival UN-brokered Government of National Accord(GNA). The operation started in May of 2014.

As Doma notes the explanation was "jumbled mumbled" and at best it shows that the the Operation Dignity fighters loyal to Haftar are "not well-disciplined and don’t follow the commands of their chiefs," adding that this will be a very perilous sign meaning that the state resources will be used to fuel conflicts in the southern region and beyond. Doma had sent a letter to Speaker of the HoR Aqilah Saleh who said he would send a reconciliation delegation but Doma complained that Saleh's orders did not always comply with his words. Doma alleged: “Haftar and his followers are trying to take the edge of the Sabha clashes by appointing biased leaderships to the city. Some of those leaderships are part of one side of the conflict and they are fighting for it.” Doma worried that the intervention of Haftar forces would politicize the conflict and undermine conciliation efforts. Doma said that the HoR and the LNA command bore responsbility for worsening the conflict although the reconciliation efforts had gone more than half way to negotiating a permanent truce. The HoR and its armed forces do not recognize the UN-brokered Government of National Accord.

Al Qaeda leader may have been killed in strike in south Libya

There are conflicting reports on the incident but a resident who lives near Sabha claimed the strike happened a little after eleven last night targeting a house in the village of Gurtha Shati on the outskirts of Sabha a main city in the south of Libya.

A Libyan news agency, LANA, associated with the eastern government of the House of Representative (HoR) based in Tobruk claimed a senior Al-Qaeda leader was killed in the attack described as a drone strike. Although some suggest that it was a western military action, the US has denied any involvement. In past incidents, the US has taken responsibility for attacks on terrorist groups it had made in Libya. A tweet claims that the bombing was by the French: "Update: #French Air Force Armée de l'Air Rafales just bombed house of a Libyan #alqaeda leader near #Sabha, #Libya a couple of hours ago." There is still no certainty as to who was responsible.

A clothing store in the southern Libyan city of Sabha

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LANA said that the Al-Qaeda leader was Abu Talha al-Hassnawi, a key figure in Al-Qaeda's North Africa network. His house was the target of the attack. Hassnawi is said to be close to Mokhtar Belmokhtar a former top Al-Qaeda leader. LANA claimed that Hassnawi fled to Sabha from Sirte where the Islamic State is virtually defeated, as did Belmokhtar. The agency said that the killing of Hassnawi is due to actions associated with the HoR government indicating that permission for the strike was granted by the HoR and no doubt Khalifa Haftar commander of the HoR-associated Libyan National Army (LNA). A local resident said that the attack left seven bodies so charred that it was impossible to identify Hassnawi. A later report in the Libya Herald cites a local official as denying that Hassnawi was killed in the attack.

A Reuters report says that gunmen later seized the remains of the militants from a mosque according to a local official. The same report claims three houses were hit in the strike with two destroyed and one damaged. Another local official claimed that those killed included both Libyans and foreigners and that it was not known if the dead included Hassnawi. He also said that gunmen went to a local hospital at Adri about 35 km or 22 miles from the village and seized the remains of the bodies. The action appears to have been sanctioned by the HoR government rather than the UN-brokered internationally recognized Government of National Accord(GNA) based in Tripoli.

Tribal clashes hit southern Libyan city of Sabha

While much of Libya is divided up into areas controlled by the rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk, some parts of the south are still controlled by tribal groups who often clash with each other.

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In southern Libya, the largest city of Sabha has seen fighting break out between members of the Tuareg and Tebu tribes for control of the key city. According to the city's mayor, Hamed al-Khayali, the conflict began in a suburb four days ago after a member of the Tebu tribe was killed at a checkpoint. He said that in all around 29 members of the Tuareg tribe were killed and four more wounded in the clashes. A local Tebu official said eight Tebu were killed and 18 wounded. The mayor said attempts to negotiate a truce had failed. The Tuareg are also active in northern Mali.

While Sabha is nominally under the control of the Tripoli government, military officials in Tripoli did not respond to a request for help to restore order in the city. The Tuareg control much of south-western Libya. The Tuareg were supporters of Gadaffi when he was in power and there were clashes between the two groups then, but Gadaffi was able to keep a semblance of order in the area compared to the present situation. There have been shortages of many supplies developing in the south as the two rival governments compete with each other and fight with Islamic State militants as well. Flights from Tripoli have been cancelled.

Sabha is about 700 km south of Tripoli. The Tripoli government is not recognized internationally but controls the capital and much of western Libya.

There were also clashes near the city of Derna on the coast in eastern Libya. The Islamic State has been driven out of the city by an umbrella group of rival jihadists. However the Islamic State still occupies mountainous areas near the city. A spokesperson for the military of the Tobruk government that controls most of the surrounding area said that three IS fighters had been killed in clashes with its troops.

Many countries applaud flawed Libyan peace agreement signed only by one side

There are two rival governments in Libya, the internationally-recognized government in the east, the House of Representatives(HoR) located in Tobruk and the General National Congress government located in Tripoli.

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Since last fall, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya(UNSMIL). guided by their Special Envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, has been attempting to broker a deal between the two governments that would see the formation of a unity government, or Government of National Accord as it is now called. A fourth draft of an agreement was received positively by the GNC. However, the Tobruk government rejected it and at first was going to exit the talks. No doubt after external pressure, it passed amendments to the draft that reduced the power of the GNC government to virtually nil. While not all of the Tobruk amendments were included in a fifth draft,or revised fourth draft, enough were included to remove any powers given to the GNC in the original fourth draft.

When the groups convened to sign the final draft, the GNC group was confronted with a document that had been amended without any consultation or agreement. At the same time, their own amendments were ignored. The GNC representatives left the talks on July 8. They indicated that they would return only if their amendments were to be seriously discussed. In a recent article I trace the process in detail and indicated that in my view there appeared to be a concerted effort to ensure that the draft prepared would not be signed by the GNC. Whether this was planned or not this is what has happened as described in another recent article. The aim seems to be not to forge a peace agreement between the two parties but to isolate the Tripoli government and its militia the Libya Dawn who also reject the draft. The whole idea that there could be a political solution with one of two rival governments not signing on strikes me as absurd. However, if the aim is to isolate one government and provide international support for the Tobruk government the strategy makes sense. Nothing is regarded as absurd when the power brokers desire it.

Bernardino Leon called the signing of the draft "an important step for Libya." This may be because it signals that the international community is going to support the Tobruk government, whose HoR is the sole legitimate legislative authority in the Government of National Accord. The GNC are to be the majority of 90 in a Council of 120 members that has an advisory role in the government. If the GNC does not participate or sign the agreement then it is not clear how that will work out. Indeed, it is not clear how the process will go ahead without either the Tripoli government or its armed forces agreeing to the plan. Some ideas are presented in an op ed in the Libya Herald a pro-Tobruk news outlet. As discussed in another article other analysts see implementation of the peace plan without the GNC or Libya Dawn as unworkable. The agreement that has been signed does not require the GNC group to sign on. Imagine, an agreement supposed to solve a conflict between two rival governments that does not require both of the parties to sign the agreement.

UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon and the EU representative for foreign affairs Federica Mogherini both have issued statements praising the signing of the draft. They do not explain why signing an agreement in which one main party is not a signatory, and which they reject, is to be praised as progress. I am waiting for reporters to ask this question. The U.S. State Departmentjoined the chorus in praising the agreement: State Department spokesperson John Kirby said in a news briefing July 13 that a United Nations-brokered deal reached in Morocco offers Libya "the best path forward to peace and stability." (State Department/Twitter)Ahmed al -Jarwan, president of the Arab Parliament, said the signing of the draft agreement was an important step towards ending the conflict and restoration of peace and security in Libya. None of these statements make any sense when one party to the conflict is left out and still has its loyal armed militia and functioning government. All is not sweetness and light if you read accounts from the other side. It is quite unlikely you will because search engines do not usually pick up articles from sources such as the Libya Observer, a pro-Tripoli outlet.

Here is an example of their reporting: Revolutionaries from western Libya, Gharyan revolutionaries, and Misrata revolutionary brigades have each issued a statement to reject the unilateral initializing of the UNSMIL draft in Skhirat, Morocco. They all reiterated their support for the General National Congress as the only legitimate representative of Libya, refusing as well the ex-regime followers’ attempts to launch a coup against 17 February revolution and calling for unity in the face of all plotters.

In the south, Sabha municipality issued a statement rejecting the signing of the draft by one of its members claiming that the member did not represent the municipality. Leon seems to have gone searching for mayors and other local officials who would sign on to the draft.

While Leon claims the door is still open for the GNC to return to the dialogue this appears to be mainly to sign the draft and then work on details. Leon seems to have not responded to the demand to consider their amendments as he had done with the Tobruk government previously. Far from being a step forward, the signing of the draft is a recipe for continued civil war. Leon has clearly tried to divide those in support of the Tripoli government. He met with commanders of militia in Misrata without informing or getting permission from the general staff. He insists that there is a parallel military dialogue with the forces of the rival governments. He claimed weeks ago that he would meet with Tobruk forces representatives in Cairo. He has not reported back nor did he ever mention with whom he was meeting. The head of the Tobruk forces Khalifa Haftar has said repeatedly that he would never agree to a cease fire with the Tripoli militia nor would he negotiate with them since he considers them terrorists. Now that the GNC and their militia are out of the deal perhaps Haftar can continue with his Operation Dignitythat he began in May 2014, and complete his military solution to the divided country. However, now he will have broader international support, not just that of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There is even a UN Security Council resolution supporting the draft. Leon has not given us a clue as to how he intends to go forward from this point.