Putin and Japanese premier Abe hold two day meeting in Japan

(December 18) Russian President Vladimir Putin has been meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Putin said that Russia may relax rules to allow Japanese citizens to visit the Kurile Islands occupied by Russia near the end of World War II.

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Several of the southern Kurile Islands occupied by the Japanese were seized by the USSR in August of 1945. Japan has had an ongoing dispute with Russia since the end of the war:

Japan claims the two southernmost large islands (Iturup and Kunashir) as part of its territory, as well as Shikotan and the Habomai islets, which has led to the ongoing Kuril Islands dispute. The disputed islands are known in Japan as the country's "Northern Territories".Out of a total of 56 islands only 8 are inhabited. Japanese inhabitants were expelled after the war.

Putin said that a solution needed to be found to the dispute. He invited Abe to visit Russia. Russian officials said that a total of 68 agreements were signed between the two countries during the visit. These included a trading agreement between Russian gas giant Gazprom with Misui and Co. and Mitsubishi Corporation. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation and the Russian Direct Investment Fund signed an agreement to set up a $1 billion investment fund to promote economic cooperation between the two countries.

The two leaders had two days of talks ending Friday. While there was no big breakthrough on the Kurile islands issue, there were numerous economic deals. The two did agree on talks regarding joint economic activities on the disputed islands. There has not yet been a peace treaty signed between the two countries. Abe said that he and Putin had taken an important step towards a peace treaty but that concluding one would not be easy.

Abe said:"The issue won’t be solved if each of us just make their own case. We need to make efforts toward a breakthrough so that we don’t disappoint the next generation. We need to set aside the past and create a win-win solution for both of us."Putin also stressed the importance of a peace agreement:"If anyone thinks we’re interested only in developing economic links and a peace deal is of secondary importance, that’s not the case. For me, the most important thing is to sign a peace agreement because that would create the conditions for long-term co-operation."

Protesters in trucks with loudspeakers drove through streets near the talks on Friday shouting "Return the Islands" and "Putin Go Home." Abe hopes to settle the dispute and seeks better relationships with Russia to counter China's rising power. The Japanese opposition noted the lack of progress on the territorial dispute.

Donald Trump made an honorary Russian Cossack

Donald Trump is not only president-elect of the United States but he has been made an honorary Russian Cossack. Trump and his entire family have been invited to attend a welcoming ceremony by Idris Cossack leader, Ataman Andrey Polyakov.

All along Trump has been the favorite candidate in the Russian media and his win was applauded in the Russian Duma or parliament. Polyakov leader of the Irbis Cossack group who bestowed the honor on Putin said that the "unforgettable programme" of traditional activities would allow Trump an insight into the "mysterious Russian soul". The Ibris group is based around St. Petersburg.

The group recently grabbed headlines by unveiling a bust of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the garb of a Roman emperor. The Cossacks a traditional military order have a long history in Russia, Ukraine and some other neighboring countries. Many defended the Czar and fought against the Bolsheviks as members of the White Army. Many were slaughtered by the Soviet regime. Nevertheless some fought with the Red Army in the Second World War. After the fall of the USSR the Cossacks have grown in numbers and importance as staunch Russian nationalists. In some cities they act as auxiliary police.

The Ibris group has made the news before. In August 2015 a prosecutor accused them of using unsanctioned currency. The smallest denomination the group issued was equal to 100 roubles or about US $1.50. There were said to be already more than two million in circulation. Some notes had a photo of President Putin but others had a photo of Polyakov the group's leader. Polyakov said the currency had a host of uses locally and said:"There is less money now, so we decided that we would help Cossacks this way. Members of the community will be able to pay using the banknotes for education at the Cossack cadet college, repair home appliances at our farmstead, and buy food products produced there."I do not know if any charges were ever laid. So far there has been no response from Donald Trump indicating he intends to attend the welcoming ceremony or accept his new honor. He could visit his friend Putin while in Russia.

Russian President Putin replaces long-time chief of staff

Anton Vaino, a former diplomat, has replaced long time member of Putin's inner circle Sergei Ivanov, as chief of staff. A statement from the Kremlin said that Putin had "decreed to relieve Ivanov of his duties" but gave no reason.

However, at a meeting both Putin and Ivanov claim that he was stepping down at his own request. This does not prevent headlines appearing such as the BBC that says " Russia's Putin sacks chief of staff Sergei Ivanov". Ivanov was appointed Putin's special representative for the environment and transportation. He will also retain his seat on the Security Council a consultative group of military and intelligence chiefs that provides advice to president Putin.

A meeting between Putin and Ivanov showed no disagreements between the two. Putin said: “We have worked for many years together with great success. I understand your wish to take on work in other areas. I very much hope that you use your knowledge and experience for effective work in your new role." Ivanov thanked Putin for the high assessment of his work of 17 years. Ivanov is said to have recommended his deputy since 2012, Anton Vaino as his successor.

Vaino was born in Estonia in 1972. On being appointed Vaino said to Putin: "Thank you for your trust. I think the administration's most important task is to support your activity as head of state in terms of drafting laws and control over how your instructions are implemented." The BBC speculates on the move that it claims mystifies Moscow:But despite the smiles for the cameras, few here are convinced - especially now, just before parliamentary elections. So is this the fall-out from some kind of power struggle? No-one knows yet. But the official claim - that a man once touted as a potential president, suddenly wanted to run Russia's environmental policy - has been met with great scepticism.Notice that no specific or identifiable figures are cited as skeptics. While the official explanation could indeed be a cover up for some disagreement obviously there is not much in the way even of rumors suggesting what might be the real reason behind the action. What could be mystifying is that an official explanation may be basically correct.

A Bloomberg article also suggests that Ivanov was dismissed giving as a reason that Putin is replacing long time allies with younger blood with Vaino just 44 while Ivanov was 63. However, 63 is hardly that old for a politician. Igor Bunin, director of the Moscow-based Center for Political Technologies said by phone: “Putin is czar so he needs a team of younger people that are 100 percent his, that haven’t had any authority in their lives other than him. Ivanov knows not only Putin but knew Leonid Brezhnev as well and is a broad-minded person. And this created some discomfort for Putin.” Nevertheless, Vaino has had authority and as a deputy of Ivanov.

Putin has dismissed several long-time allies lately including Vladimir Yakunin 68 who headed Russian Railways for a decade, and Vladimir Dmitriev 62, who oversaw the indebted state development bank, Vnesheconobank. In both cases he installed younger managers who are technocrats, but loyal to him, in order to help improve the performance of the companies during a long recession.

How media spins Trumps' remarks on Hillary emails

Donald Trump says many bizarre things, and often reverses his positions on matters, or even lies. Nevertheless some in the press are so anxious to make him look bad that they interpret what he says in the worst possible light.

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Recently Trump made remarks about the emails deleted from Hillary's personal email account and thus could not be accessed by the FBI. His actual remarks were: “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing, I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”

Trump first said he was joking. But the joke probably indirectly makes reference to the now-common position that the Russians were involved in hacking the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and releasing them to damage Hillary Clinton's nomination campaign. Russian involvement is widely reported as being confirmed by experts even though other experts point out as in USA Today :Computer security researchers say it’s difficult to definitively say the cyber theft of files from the Democratic National Committee subsequently posted online by Wikileaks was the work of Russian hackers, as some media outlets have reported.Such details will be more and more left out as the drive to demonize Trump along with Russia becomes more urgent apparently.

Note that the emails Trump refers to were deleted. If, as the new narrative goes, Russians are busy hacking everything to do with US politics, perhaps they hacked into Hillary's personal email account and have the emails. There is nothing to do with encouraging the Russians to hack Hillary's email, just that if they did then they should reveal them to the press. Later Trump says they should reveal them to the FBI. The entire short episode simply takes a jibe at Clinton's 30,000 deleted emails that the FBI cannot examine and the view that the Russians have been busy hacking US politicians accounts. It appears to be nothing but a contrived joke as Trump first declared.

There is no mention of encouraging Russians to hack Clinton. They could not do it anyway to get the emails since they are deleted. They must already have done it.

Nevertheless many press responses ignore all this. Consider the Digital Journal article headline: "Trump encourages Russia to hack Clinton emails." The New York Times is not much better as in an article it says: Donald Trump sensationally challenged Russia on Wednesday to hack into Hillary Clinton's emails as a furious Democratic campaign accused the Republican nominee of inviting foreign spies to meddle in the US presidential election.

He did not challenge Russia to hack into Hillary Clinton's emails. They are deleted. He implied that if they did, if they released them the press would be interested and later mentioned the FBI as well. Another prestigious outlet, The Atlantic, goes on:Even as some Trump supporters insisted he was just joking, several national security experts said they could not recall another instance of a major party candidate calling on a foreign power to spy on a U.S. citizen, much less on a political opponent. "Leaders who are serious about national security do not, even in jest, encourage foreign powers to spy on us," said Timothy Naftali, co-director of New York University's Center for the United States and the Cold War.But Trump said nothing suggesting Russia should spy on the United States. What you have is more development of narratives linking up Trump and Russia in a bid to damage the Clinton candidacy. Maybe there is such a conspiracy but Trump's remarks do not provide any evidence for it.

Whether by design or incompetence, Trumps' words are deliberately misconstrued to fit in with the pattern of demonizing Trump that appears to be common in much press coverage of him. He is surely bad enough that his words need not be twisted just to make him look bad.

Russia talking with Saudis over Syria

A visit to Russia by Saudi king Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is being worked on through diplomatic sources, according to the Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

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The Saudis may attempt to work out a solution on Syria agreeable to the Russians. Saudi involvement in both Yemen and Syria are a strain on its resources and budget in a period of declining income due to low oil prices. The Saudis may feel there is no victory in sight for the Islamist groups it supports in Syria and that it makes sense to find a political solution if possible. The Saudi deficit this year alone is set to be 21.6 percent of GDP. While this will be easily covered by savings, those savings are dwindling quickly.The economic situation in Saudi Arabia is now such that the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency was forced to withdraw $70 billion from foreign investment fund assets to pay for items in the Saudi budget.

The Saudis aim to create better relationships with Russia in the hope that Russia in turn can put pressure on Iran, Assad, and indirectly the Houthis in Yemen as well, to come to a political solution to conflicts the Saudis would like to see ended. These conflicts are simply too great a cost to the kingdom, with little benefit in return. The Saudis' attitude to Russia has changed rapidly.

When Russia first launched its air-strikes in Syria, the Saudis were among the first to denounce them, along with the U.S. They were called "counter-productive' and "reactionary." However, the very fact that the Saudi King is to visit Moscow shows a change in attitude. Prince Turki al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. and intelligence chief, said that he was confident that Russia's strategy in Syria was more effective than that of the U.S. and that the Russian point of view demanded both attention and respect. Russia regards Assad as the legitimate ruler of Syria and has maintained that position since the start of the conflict back in 2011. The Saudis have taken the position of the Islamist rebels they support, that Assad and his regime must go. However, the Saudis may be in the process of beginning to abandon those very groups.

An article by Salman Sheikh claims: Recently, Riyadh issued a ‘secret document’ to its embassies in the Middle East instructing them to stop ‘funding’ the so-called Syrian ‘rebels’. This indicates that the House of Saud is ‘no longer’ in a position to achieve its basic objective of overthrowing Assad’s regime.

Cutting off funds to rebels will certainly put pressure on them to come to a political solution or else face the prospect of defeat by Assad forces bolstered by Russian intervention. The U.S. seems to be concentrating on defeating the Islamic State rather than the overthrow of Assad. They are now supporting the Kurds who are more interested in autonomy for areas they control than in ousting Assad, who has not been attempting to take territory back from them.

Earlier, Saudi money was instrumental in funding many rebel groups but since King Salman took power there has been some change. Prince Bandar, the intelligence chief who was in charge of attempts to topple Assad, was fired by the new King Salman. The Saudi Arabia defence minister visited Russia this summer. Sheik believes that Saudis hope to diversify their economic linkages towards Russia and Asia: This ‘constructive engagement’ seems to have strong economic underpinnings as the Saudis seem to be very interested in participating and opening for themselves, as also for their regional allies, doors to the greatest global infrastructure in history — China’s One Belt, One Road port and rail Eurasian infrastructure development where Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union states are being fully integrated in an ‘economic union.’The One Belt, One Road initiative is a grand economic plan outlined by China in 2013. This would no doubt be a better investment than funding Islamic jihadists in Syria.

The Saudis are also interesting in discussing oil policy with Russia. Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, announced after Sochi that talks were planned with his Saudi and Iranian counterparts this month. The Saudis are hit not just by the decline in oil prices but subsidized oil prices to its own consumers. The cost of these subsidies runs at about $86 billion a year.

Apparently, Putin and Salman have already exchanged views by phone according to Russian authorities. The call was said to be a Saudi initiative. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the two exchanged views about "all questions associated with resolving the Syria crisis..". Oman has been playing a useful mediating role in developments as it has been in relation to the Yemen conflict as well. The Omani foreign minister even met with Bashar al-Assad last month. The head of Syria's National Security Bureau met with Egyptian president el-Sisi.

Free Syrian Army delegates have apparently visited Moscow several times. With the onrush of refugees from Syria into Europe and now the Paris attacks by the Islamic State, many parties are anxious to end the war in Syria. However, it is not at all certain that the political actors representing the rebels will have much influence on those fighting on the ground. Cutting off funding to the rebels could force them to the bargaining table. Russia would need to agree to limit support for Assad in order that he not come to believe that he could gain a military victory. As shown in the appended video the Saudis have already signed a military agreement with Russia a move that can hardly please the U.S.

UPDATE: This recent article appears to conflict with the material in my article. The Saudi FM says that the Saudis will continue to support rebels unless Assad goes. Perhaps it is a bargaining position.

Egypt and Russia strengthen ties

President el-Sisi came to power in Egypt after leading a coup that overthrew former president Morsi. He later was elected president. 

Throughout this period, Putin gave strong support for Sisi. Since then, relations between the two countries have strengthened.

In 2014 Russia and Egypt signed a $3.5 billion arms deal. Recently, the two countries signed a further military cooperation agreement that will see Egyptian officers and troops trained in Russian military academies. Putin also had a successful visit to Cairo back in February this year.

These moves by Egypt will provide the Egyptian government more leverage in dealing with the US which provides not only substantial military aid to Egypt but also trains many of its armed forces. In response to Egypt's horrible human rights record and suppression of opposition, the US had suspended some military aid. Egypt's response was to show the US that it could also find military aid elsewhere.

The US counter-move was announced by Obama just yesterday. He is renewing all suspended aid to Egypt. Egypt will now receive $1.3 billion in aid that was suspended after the overthrow of elected president Morsi and the subsequent crackdown on opposition. 

The situation in Egypt has not changed in terms of the crackdown but no doubt the Russian aid showed the US that it was not a good idea to try to use arms aid as leverage to improve the political situation within Egypt.

The announced reason for the change in policy is the typical one that can justify anything these days, the danger of the Islamic State. The problem is that Sisi supports General Haftar in Libya. Haftar is armed forces commander of the internationally-recognized Tobruk government. 

Haftar is battling not just the Islamic State but the competing government based in Tripoli which is also being attacked by the Islamic State. In other words, SIsi  can use his weapons to turn the tide in Haftar's battle to retake territory from the Tripoli government.

The US and other western countries have supported the UN peace process. Haftar has sabotaged the process whenever he could. With renewed arms supplied by Egypt ostensibly to help fight the Islamic State, Haftar can carry out his mission to defeat the forces of the competing government in Tripoli.

With the release of the suspended military aid to Egypt, Sisi will receive 12 F-16 fighter jets, replacements kits for 125 Abrams tanks, 20 Harpoon missiles, and the $1.3 billion that had been suspended.

Egypt's improving relationships with Russia have also caused some tension with Saudi Arabia although on many issues such as military action against Yemen the two agree completely. At the Arab League meeting in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el_Sheik, the two states however disagreed on the issue of Syria. Sisi urged a political solution to the conflict. Saudi Arabia insists that Assad must go, but el-Sisi stressed the need to battle terrorism and prevent the collapse of Syrian state institutions.

He is planning to host a conference of the Syrian opposition to form a unified political position on talks. This is the type of action that Russia would prefer as well. While Egypt does not outright give support for Assad, an Egyptian official told AP that the Assad  regime "must be part of the negotiations and the transitional period." The opposition members who would agree to this are no doubt few in number and any political agreement might have very little effect on the battles taking place in Syria. The tightly controlled press in Egypt and Saudi Arabia lambasted each other for their respective positions on Syria. 

Egypt is obviously trying to develop its own more independent foreign policy that is distressing not just to the US but US ally Saudi Arabia as well.

Sources:
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_306481/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=DjjE3NsH
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-egypt-military-agreement-2015-3
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/moscow-cairo-relations-sisi-putin-egypt-visit.html
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/31/obama-restores-us-military-aid-to-egypt
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-judge-putins-trip-to-egypt

NATO angered by Russian treaty with South Ossetia

A new treaty between Russia and South Ossetia merges a portion of the South Ossetian armed forces with those of Russia and also increases the economic integration of the two countries 

Coat of Arms of  South Ossetia

South Ossetia was originally an autonomous part of the Georgian Soviet Republic. However, at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 it declared itself independent, angering newly independent Georgia which considers both it and another independent area Abkhazia as part of its sovereign territory. Georgia has continually attempted to enforce its rule and occupy South Ossetia.

In 2008 an attack on South Ossetia and Russian peacekeepers in the area resulted in a disastrous war for Georgia. Russia recognized South Osssetia and Abkhazia both as independent states after the war. Only Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru of UN members recognize the independence of South Ossetia. Nauru may have done so because of Russian foreign aid but Nauru denies this.

NATO claims the treaty violates international law but then it insists every treaty entered into by South Ossetia with anyone is against international law since it regards South Ossetia as part of Georgia. The signing of this treaty follows the signing of a similar treaty with Abkhazia last year. Both countries are subsidized by Russia. As well.as further integrating the South Ossetian economy with that of Russia, it will make it easier for South Ossetians to get Russian citizenship and will also raise salaries for South Ossetian civil servants and pensions within the country.

Not only NATO but also the US was angered by the agreement. Jen Psaki, US State Department spokesperson said: "The regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are integral parts of Georgia and we continue to support Georgia's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,"

The treaty was signed after talks between Russian president Vladiimir  Putin and South Ossetian president Leonid Tibilov in Moscow on March 18. The treaty includes a pledge of collective security. Putin said the treaty improved the two countries' legal system and in coordination of economic development. Tibilov said: “We know the Russian Federation is the only guarantor for our people and for our republic.” South Ossetia has supported Russia in the annexation of the Crimea. There seems almost zero possibility of either Abkhazia or South Ossetia being reintegrated back into Georgia.

Sources:

http://news.yahoo.com/putin-signs-treaty-integrating-south-ossetia-russia-134209512.html

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-treaty-south-ossetia-breaks-international-law-nato-162225556.html

http://rt.com/politics/241929-russia-ossetia-treaty-alliance/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru

Russia and Ukraine still need to finalize natural gas deal

After meetings on Friday between Putin and Poroshenko and then between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators and the EU Commission over the weekend, it appeared that an agreement would be finalized today but no accord was reached.

An interim deal was reached over the weekend. Progress was made in September and the interim deal would have provided Ukraine with sufficient natural gas to carry it through the winter unless the weather was quite cold. The meeting today was unable to work out problems having to do with Ukraine's ability to pay for the gas. The European Energy Commission, Ukraine, and Russia did agree on the price that Ukraine would pay for the gas $385 per thousand cubic meters providing the money was paid in advance. While Alexander Novak claimed that Russia needed further assurances that Ukraine could pay for the gas, there was also agreement that the group would meet again in Brussels in a week to try to resolve the issue.
 Ukraine is in desperate need of funds. It had requested another $2.55 billion in credit from the EU earlier in the day before the meeting. Ukraine had already agreed to pay off $3.1 billion it owes Russia for gas in order to ensure that Russia will supply gas this winter, even though Ukraine took the issue to an international court. Many EU countries are anxious to resolve the issue between Ukraine and Russia to ensure that their own supplies of natural gas from Russia are not disrupted. The EU receives about a third of its natural gas from Russia and about half of that comes through Ukraine. Russia too wants a deal since Gazprom which is state-controlled earns about $6 billion every month through its sales of natural gas to the EU.
The EU has brokered talks since last May when Russian president Vladimir Putin asked the EU to intervene. European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said: "We made another step towards a possible solution and are close to an agreement on important elements. Others still need to be addressed, such as the financial gap. At the next meeting, which we hope will be the final trilateral meeting, next Wednesday here in Brussels, we will be able to reach a decision and we'll have the signature of all the partners." In another move that might help solve the problem President Putin announced that Ukraine's debt for gas supplies was $4.5 billion, whereas Gazprom had previously said it was $5.3 billion.
Before Friday earlier talks were described as not very productive. However, after the meeting with Putin, Poroshenko announced in a TV interview the price agreement of $385 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas that would apply until the end of March next year. Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine but not the EU in June of this year, demanding that Ukraine pay off its existing debt. Ukraine and its European allies are anxious to forge an agreement before the cold weather sets in. Poroshenko wants the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine pay off its debt to Gazprom. IMF officials will visit Ukraine after a new cabinet is formed following elections in mid-November. Ukrainian officials claim that the IMF will need to adjust the existing $17 billion bailout program as economic conditions in Ukraine have deteriorated significantly since April when the agreement was signed.

Russia ratifies Eurasian Economic Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, signed a law that commits the country to the Eurasian Economic Union. The agreement comes into force on the first of January 2015 creating an economic union among Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Belarus and Kazakhstan are expected to ratify the treaty within a few days. The process of forming the union has been going on for some time with a customs union already being in place. The union will create a common market serving 170 million people. Although each country will keep its own currency, the ruble will be the union's de facto currency. The three countries will cooperate in the areas of energy, transport,, industry, and also agriculture. Union headquarters will be in Moscow with courts in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Almaty, Kazakhstan will be the site of the financial regulatory agency. Citizens of the three countries will be able to work in any of the member states without a work permit.
In just the last three years trade within the three countries, who had a customs union, increased by nearly 50 percent to $66.2 billion at the end of 2013. Only the EU and China have greater trade with Russia than the Customs Union members. Presidents of all three countries are scheduled to meet in Minsk to exchange ratification documents on October 10. Armenia is also planning to join the union soon. Negotiations and agreements for closer economic ties between a number of ex-Soviet republics have been ongoing since at least 1995.
The Customs union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus came into effect back in January 1, 2010. The agreement eliminated any tariffs between the three countries, created a common external tariff policy and also did away with non-tariff barriers to trade. The Eurasian Economic Union agreement was negotiated on May 29 this year. The presidents of Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan were also present at the original signing. At the time President Putin said: "Today we are creating a powerful, attractive center of economic development, a big regional market that unites more than 170 million people." Both Armenia and Kyrgyzstan plan to join by signing an accession treaty by the end of this year. Tajikistan has also expressed interest in joining.

China opposes any further US and EU sanctions on Russia

China has been careful in its responses to the Ukrainian situation. While it wants to retain Russia as an ally it is concerned that the Crimea referendum could set a precedent for areas such as Tibet, which is part of China.

The European Union has threatened Russia with further sanctions after Russia was accused of sending troops into Ukraine to help separatists in their battle with Ukrainian forces. There are divisions among European leaders and it is not clear when any further sanctions might come into effect.
Spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Qin Gang, said: "A political solution is the only way out, sanctions do not help to solve the underlying problems in Ukraine. It may lead to new and more complicating factors." China has said also that it respects Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and wants to develop friendly relations with it. In a joint statement released during an official visit of Russian president Vladimir Putin to China both countries rejected the use of sanctions as political tools. As well the two condemned attempts to "encourage and finance" regime change a clear swipe at US actions in Ukraine and elsewhere to ensure election of pro-western regimes in countries around the periphery of Russia.
Sanctions by the west have encouraged Russia to turn east and in particular to grow business and trade with China. The two countries have already signed numerous, energy and business deals. The joint statement promised " a new stage in full-scale partnership and strategic relations". The two countries agreed to coordinate foreign policy where they have common priorities. President Putin said: “We have common priorities on a global and on a regional scale. We’ve agreed upon closer coordination of our foreign policy steps, including those in the UN, BRICS and APEC"
Both countries oppose attempts by the US and EU to impose sanctions. The joint statement said: “The parties stress the necessity to… reject unilateral sanctions rhetoric.Economic restrictions applied as punishment are no better than financial aid to forces that seek “a change in constitutional system of another country,” Russia has accused the US of spending $5 billion to promote regime change in the Ukraine.
 Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament also noted China's objections to sanctions against Russia. She said that both Russia and China believe that the sanctions are an attempt "to exert pressure on sovereign states to change their position and to weaken them and suppress their development." She thanked China for taking a public position in opposition to the western sanctions imposed upon Moscow. She noted also that Moscow and Beijing shared many common positions on a number of global issues.

Putin criticizes Bolsheviks and Lenin as betraying Russian national interest

Speaking at the Seliger National Youth Forum a summer camp for pro-government youth, Putin criticized the Bolsheviks who led the October Revolution and founded the USSR. Lenin led the Bolsheviks.

Putin accused the Bolsheviks of treachery because they undermined the Russian fight against the Germans in the First World War. Russia was allied with France and Britain at the time. After three years Russia was in dire straits with soldiers defecting and a great deal of public unrest. Lenin at the time called for turning the imperialistic war into a civil war and he led the Bolsheviks to power using soldiers, peasants, and workers against the Russian regime.
When Lenin died in 1924 he became part of a cult of personality with his body on display in a Mausoleum in Red Square. Leningrad was one of the cities named after him. In a sign of the times after the USSR fell apart the city became again St. Petersburg. Stalingrad met a similar fate.
 When Putin returned to power in 2012 he began to promote his own ideological views advancing a Russian nationalism, often associated with traditional values including support for the Russian Orthodox Church, and a strong anti-western stance. The Bolshevik's in contrast were internationalists who believed that the new Soviet State could survive only if there were a global communist revolution. Workers belonged to no state. Nationalist rivalry was used to pit workers in one country against those of another in the interests of rival capitals. An article in the New Yorker suggests that Putin has yet to adequately incorporate the Bolshevik revolution in his ideology: Was the 1917 Bolshevik revolution a national disaster that destroyed the imperial Russian statehood? Or was it the beginning of the Soviet state of which today’s Russia is a successor? In other words, since the Russian civil war did not end in a reconciliation, do we identify with the defeated Whites or with the Reds, led by Lenin, who exterminated them?
Putin is now leader of a country that has abandoned socialism but that has its own particular brand of crony capitalism dominated by oligarchs. However, Putin is to a considerable extent in control of the oligarchs as compared to the Ukraine in which the oligarchs dominate the government with president Poroshenko himself being an oligarch.
Ironically, the Russian form of crony capitalism was to a considerable extent a creation of the US itself and a group at Harvard University. Among the chief architects of the Russian privatization were Lawrence Summers and Andrei Shleifer of the Harvard Institute for International Development(HIID) In 1992 the Harvard-led reform of the Russian was front page news: A 1992 front-page story in the Boston Globe (9/22/92), "Red Square Turns to Crimson," announced proudly that Harvard experts were advising Russia in its conversion to capitalism. "Privatization stands as the centerpiece of Russia's economic-reform program," wrote the Globe. It was an equation the "best and brightest" from Harvard would drum home again and again to the media: privatization equals reform. The piece quoted the head of the Harvard Russia project, Andrei Shleifer: "Once you work with Russians for two weeks, you become a free-market enthusiast." However, the results of privatization were to concentrate wealth in the hands of the oligarchs and also lead to charges against some of those in the Harvard project as well. Most of the privatization took place during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin in the early and mid nineteen nineties: Privatization enabled Russia to shift from the deteriorating Soviet planned economy towards a market economy, but, as a result, a good deal of the national wealth fell into the hands of a relatively small group of so-called business oligarchs (tycoons), and the wealth gap increased dramatically.[1] It was described as "Catastroika"[2] and as one of the "most cataclysmic peacetime economic collapse of an industrial country in history"
Harvard University ended up settling charges against it, Schleifer, and another advisor to the tune of millions of dollars in 2005: Harvard will pay $26.5 million to the U.S. government to settle a five-year-old lawsuit that implicated two University employees, including its star economics professor Andrei Shleifer ’82, the Justice Department announced Wednesday. Shleifer, the Jones professor of economics, emerged far less scathed in the settlement, agreeing to pay just $2 million. He had faced damages of up to $104 million for conspiring to defraud the government while advising a U.S.-funded program to privatize the Russian economy in the 1990s.
 Given this background to Putin's crony capitalism it is hardly surprising that Putin should be concerned about any group such as the Bolsheviks who threatened the stability of the status quo. Putin remembers 1917 as a time when "some were shaking Russia from within, and shook it to the point where Russia as a state collapsed and declared itself defeated". Putin no doubt was warning the youth group he was addressing not to repeat the historic events of 1917. He also spoke of the Bolshevik actions as betraying the Russian national interest:It was the Bolsheviks, after all, who “wished to see their fatherland defeated while Russian heroic soldiers and officers shed blood on the fronts of the First World War.” Putin is obviously forging a new counter-revolutionary ideology that rejects the Russian revolution as playing any positive role in the development of modern Russia even though Lenin is regarded as a positive figure by more half of all Russians. However, a new poll released in August shows Putin with an 87 percent approval rating.
 The enclosed video appears to show Putin crying during the playing of the Russian National Anthem. The anthem was first introduced in 1944 during the war but was briefly replaced after the dissolution of the USSR. It was then re-introduced with new lyrics. Until 1944 the USSR used the Internationale as the national anthem. Perhaps Putin has some Mongolian desert dust in his eye. I have also appended a video with Pete Seeger singing the Internationale.

Snowden still stuck in Moscow Airport transit area

- Ecuador has asked Russia for talks concerning Edward Snowden according to a Russian state broadcaster. Snowden is seeking asylum in Ecuador to avoid trial in the US.

Snowden is believed to be in the transit zone of the Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow. This is confirmed by Russian president Vladimir Putin. As reported earlier in the Digital Journal, President Corea of Ecuador has revoked the travel papers that were issued by the Ecuadorean consul in London. This makes it difficult for Snowden to travel on to Ecuador since his US passport has already been revoked.

Ecuador has insisted that Snowden must be on Ecuadorean territory to be given refugee status. Perhaps the talks are aimed at allowing Snowden transit to the Ecuador embassy in Moscow. Alexei Pushkov, the Russian parliamentary foreign affairs committee chair, said on Twitter that the case was tragic."The idealist Snowden was apparently convinced that it would be like in a Hollywood movie: he would blow the whistle, and democracy would prevail. But life and the US are harder."Perhaps this is a sign that Snowden will be turned over to the US as part of improving relations but we will just have to wait and see.

Ecuador says a decision on asylum could take months. and has asked that the US argue its case for extradition. Translated this probably means that Ecuador wants to know what it can get in return for turning over Snowden. The US has alternated between the good cop, bad cop routine. On the one hand there are threats to end preferential access of Ecuadorean goods to the US and on the other hand Joe Biden is the good cop who was praised by President Corea. Corea noted the good manners of Biden in contrast to some "brats" in the US Congress: "He communicated a very courteous request from the United States that we reject the (asylum) request."

Correa said that he would respect US opinion in evaluating Biden's request but that Ecuador cannot even begin to process Snowden's application until he reaches Ecuadorean soil. By revoking Snowden's travel papers, Corea has made this difficult. Corea is a game theorist and economist and a politician to boot. This hardly makes him trustworthy.

So far, Putin has insisted that he will not extradite Snowden. In claiming that he is in the transit area, Putin can claim as well that he has not even entered Russia. However Russian law requires any travellers staying in the area for more than 24 hours to obtain a transit visa for up to three days. There is no confirmation that Snowden has such a visa or when it might expire. Several refugees have actually stayed in the airport for months. The longer the situation is unresolved the more Russian US ties are strained.

Kofi Annan of the UN and Russia's Vladimir Putin make no progress on Syria

     Although the Russian President claimed that he would do everything he could to support Anna's six point peace plan meant to end the violence in Syria neither side seems to be willing to make the plan work or  follow its directives. Violence has been constantly increasing. There is now an obvious civil war in Syria.
    This is Annan's first meeting with the Russian president since Putin won a third term. Annan hopes to avoid a Russian veto of a new resolution that threatens Syria with new sanctions. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov insisted he could "see no reason why we cannot also agree at the UN Security Council. We are ready for this". However, so far there is no sign Moscow is willing to take a harder line against the Syrian president or his regime.
   Putin maintained: "From the very start, from the first steps, we supported and continue to support your efforts aimed at restoring civil peace,"  However, Annan's efforts have so far come to naught as the fighting continues to increase rather than decrease. There is a Friday deadline for the monitors mission to end or receive an extension.
     A western backed resolution is being presented on Wednesday that threatens Syrian authorities with sanctions if they use heavy weapons in towns. Russia promises to block this move. The west insists that Assad step down as a condition of any resolution of the conflict. However Assad shows no sign of willingness to do so even though some officials who were part of his inner circle have now defected. For more see this article.

Almost all Pakistanis against drone strikes according to Pew poll.

The full Pew Research poll on global attitudes can be found here. The poll also shows a decline in confidence in Obama in many parts of the world. However most countries in Europe want to see him reelected.

There are many other interesting statistics in the poll. Putin for example is not viewed favorably as a leader except in Russia itself at 69 per cent and to some extent in China.

The Pakistan attitudes on drones show 97 per cent opposed and a majority believe that the drone strikes have a negative impact on the country. Ninety four per cent believe that the drones kill too many innocent people. Some of the statistics seem inconsistent but that is probably the result of people's attitudes! The number of people who see militant groups as a main problem to be addressed in Pakistan is dwindling although the popularity of militant groups is not increasing. A full 74 per cent do not think drone attacks are necessary to defend Pakistan from extremist groups. The survey also shows that the most popular party is the PTI led by Imran Khan. For more see this article.

Russia and China sign multiple business agreements

Russian President Putin and Chinese president Hu Jintao have signed multiple agreements governing cooperation on investment, energy, and technology. The signing happened during Putin's recent three day visit to China.

The two leaders pledged economic cooperation during the present global economic turmoil. Hu noted:"China and Russia are both committed to restructuring their economy and addressing the risks and adverse influence in the global economy," The goal of the two countries is to reach trade levels of 100 billion US. by 2015 doubling to 200 billion by 2020. In 2011 the level was just 80 billion but this itself was 42 per cent higher than the year before.

China and Russia also signed 12 different diplomatic and business agreements and established a 4 billion dollar joint investment fund. Russia already provided 15 million tons of crude oil through exclusive pipelines last year and expects sign an agreement to provide natural gas as well to serve China's expanding industries. For much more see this article.

Putin: Control of oil reserves among Iraq war goals.

This is from this Russian site. It is not surprising that Putin should say this but it is a little surprising that he should agree with Bush that the US should stay as long as the security situation requires it. Of course Putin along with many others think that the US should set a withdrawal date. The two positions are a bit contradictory unless the withdrawal date is just a motivator!


Control of oil reserves among Iraq war goals - Putin
16:53 | 18/ 10/ 2007



MOSCOW, October 18 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq was mainly aimed at controlling the Gulf state's oil reserves.

During his annual televised question-and-answer session, the president responded to a request for his appraisal of the Iraq war by stating that, "One of the goals, in my opinion, was to establish control over the country's crude reserves."

He also said that the U.S. should fix a date for the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq.

"If the Iraqi authorities know the exact U.S. troop withdrawal date, they will work hard and consistently to enhance the country's own armed forces," Putin said, adding that they would otherwise remain inactive, feeling secure and protected "under the U.S. umbrella".

On the other hand, the president said he agreed with U.S. President George W. Bush that U.S. forces should remain in Iraq as long as their assistance is needed to ensure security.

"The U.S. contingent should only be withdrawn when the Iraqi leadership is capable of maintaining security and stability in the region," Putin said.

He called Iraq "a small country, which holds enormous oil reserves, but is hardly capable of protecting itself."

Putin also said that, "Some hotheads have come up with the idea of getting access to Russian oil reserves, particularly in east Siberia." He did not specify further.

Asked by a Siberian mechanic to comment on a statement, allegedly made several years ago by former U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright, to the effect that Siberia had too many natural resources to belong to one country, the president replied that "Russia has sufficient strength and means to protect its interests on its territory and in other regions of the world."