Ukraine carries out prisoner exchange with eastern separatists

(December 30, 2019) A plane loaded with captives freed by separatists landed just outside of the Ukrainian capital Kiev today as the Ukrainian government and the eastern separatists carried out a prisoner swap of approximately 200 people.

The prisoner exchange is seen as a potential confidence-building move the could help produce more peace talks.

Plane arrives near Kiev

President of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said to journalist after he greeted former prisoners at Boryspll airport close to Kiev: "It's wonderful, I'm so happy."

The plane was transporting 76 former captives. Included were 12 military personnel and 64 civilians. The group was met by a crowd of relatives some with flowers and balloons. Family members some with children rushed out to hug the former prisoners with tears and shouts of joy.

Anatoliy Semerenko one of the civilians released said to reporters: "Most of all I want to relax after all this and forget as soon as possible what was happening there."

Journalists among those released

Stanislave Aseyev and Oleg Galazyuk two journalists who contributed to the Ukrainian branch of Radio Free Europe funded by the United States.

Many Ukrainian nationalists opposed the exchange.

Many nationalists oppose any deals with the separatists period but they object in particular to freeing five police who had been captured after the 2014 rebellion that ousted a pro-Russian government and replaced it with a pro-Western government. The regime change led to rebellion in some eastern parts of the Ukraine that has been ongoing for years. The conflict the War in Donbass resulted in two breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk supported by Russia : "The War in Donbass is an armed conflict in the Donbass region of Ukraine. From the beginning of March 2014, protests by Russian-backed anti-government groups took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, commonly collectively called the "Donbass", in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Euromaidan movement." The two areas have a majority of Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

France, Germany, and Russia hail the exchange

As a recent article reports: "Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron hailed the swap as "positive".The exchange came after Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky held their first face-to-face talks in Paris on December 9 and agreed measures to de-escalate Europe's only active war."

Previously published in the Digital Journal

U.S. to train alleged neo-fascist Azov Brigade in the Ukraine

Many in the U.S. Congress favor helping Ukraine in its battle against Russian-supported rebels in the east of the country. However, some of the militia groups associated with the struggle have links to militia that are neo-Nazi or Nazi sympathizers.

As a recent article puts the issue:

Though many of those neo-fascist fighters in Ukraine hearken back to popular figures in Ukrainian history who allied with the Nazis, few Americans and even fewer American policymakers typically cast a fond gaze at the ideology or history of the Third Reich. Thus, the dilemma: give up support for the neo-fascist militias and be seen as weak in standing up to Russia or support the militias and be seen as getting into bed with murderous neo-Nazis.

The first strategy of the Congress was to support all the militias, while hoping the press did not notice. This did not work out because the Associated Press and other media noticed that one of the militia groups being supported, the Azoz Battalion, actually uses an emblem from Nazi Germany.

Ukraine's interior minister, Arsen Avakov,. said on his Facebook page that the Azov Battalion was one of the units to be trained by the US at a base in western Ukraine. The project will involve about 290 US paratroopers and about 900 Ukrainian guardsmen.

The Azov Battaliion is a volunteer militia that is part of the Ukrainian National Guard. The group has been quite effective in battle and has kept the city of Mariupol from being taken over by the rebels. It answers to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and has close connections with the the Ukrainian intelligence agency SBU. It turns over any prisoners it takes to the SBU and provides intelligence. The Daily Beast has an interview with a sergeant from the group, Ivan Kharkiv. He plays down the neo-Nazi links of the group. While the interview was taking place the paper reports this event:As he speaks a young soldier walks over. Kharkiv introduces him. While shaking hands a large black tattoo becomes particularly visible on the young man’s extended upper bicep. The tattoo is an image of the Nazi eagle atop a black swastika.

The revelations that neo-Nazi groups or Nazi sympathizers were being funded led Congressmen John Conyers and Ted Yoho to submit an amendment to the House Defense Appropriations bill that would limit "arms, training, and other assistance to the neo-Nazi Ukrainian militia, the Azov." The amendment passed in a unanimous vote in the US House of Representatives. However, in the final bill the amendment was gone. The Department of Defense successfully lobbied to have the ban removed.

The Pentagon claims the Conyers/Yoho amendment was not needed since legislation already exists — the Leahy law that would prevent the funding of Azov. However, the Leahy law only covers groups that the US Secretary of State has credible evidence of having committed a gross violation of human rights. This would be a much more limited ban than that envisioned by the Conyers/Yoho amendment. Since the U.S. was planning to train the Azov battalion in spite of the Leahy Law it should have been clear that the amendment was not redundant as claimed by the Pentagon. The Pentagon no doubt wants to fund the Battalion because it is one of the more effective forces against the rebels.

The government of Petro Poroshenko itself often faces problems with right-wing militias. It has even engaged in open conflict with the Right Sector militia.

Ukraine may default on debt payment in July

Ukraine has found it necessary to obtain a further bailout from the IMF even though it had agreed to a $17 billion aid package last year, of which it has so far received $4.6 billion. It needed more in early 2015.

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In February of this year, in spite of the fact that the Ukrainian economy was in a tailspin and the IMF may never get its money back, a new bailout program was extended:The International Monetary Fund has agreed to give Ukraine a new bailout deal worth 15.5 billion euro ($17.5 billion) that could climb to around $40 billion over four years with help from other lenders like Europe and the U.S.. ..Facing bankruptcy, Ukraine last month asked the IMF to replace its program with a new one to restore confidence in its finances and help it meet its debt obligations.

As of March 5, the Ukrainian economy was getting worse: Its central bank raised benchmark interest rates from 19.5% to 30% effective Wednesday. Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, has lost nearly 70% of its value against the dollar in just a year. GDP shrank by 7% in 2014. And while the war-torn country secured a $40 billion international bailout package in February, the chances of recovery any time soon are small.

Now Ukraine is facing a default as it will miss a $120 million bond coupon payment in July, setting off a default of approximately $19 billion in debt. There is no sign of a standoff between the government and creditors being resolved, according to Goldman Sachs. Ukraine is giving creditors just a few weeks to accept a proposal that includes a 40 percent write-down of the principal, or it will issue a debt moratorium. Imagine the international outrage and horror if the Greek government had set conditions such as that! The Greek government on the other hand has so far agreed to meet its debt obligations in full. Research analyst Andrew Matheny in a research note said:“Ukraine will not make the July 24 coupon payment and, as a result, will enter into default at that point. We do not expect the ad hoc committee to accept Ukraine’s latest restructuring proposal.”The committee, the Ukraine government, and the IMF officials will meet in Washington next week to decide whether the next slice of the $17 billion loan should be released to Ukraine. The IMF said earlier this month that it can keep supporting Ukraine even if it refuses to pay private holders of Ukrainian bonds.

Private bondholders have objected to a debt writedown. Franklin Templeton holds about $9 billion in Ukrainian debt. The company suggested extending bond maturity and reduction in coupon amounts as a means to saving about $16 billion for the Ukraine over four years. This is a variation on the type of scheme that Greek finance minister Varoufakis was suggesting as a means by which Greece could manage its debt. However, analyst Matheny of Goldman Sachs thought a debt writedown would be necessary.There are also proposals that bond repayment be linked to economic performance, a suggestion also made by the Greek government.

The Washington negotiations over the restructuring of Ukrainian debt are set to resume this next week. The IMF is demanding a lower Ukraine debt load before releasing more of the bailout money. This could mean "haircuts" for bondholders: Ukraine must restructure about $19 billion of debt held by international investors in order to secure another tranche of IMF funds. As a condition of the bailout, the IMF wants private debt restructured to save $15.3 billion over four years, and has urged Ukraine and its private creditors to find a compromise by June. As with Greek negotiations, the atmosphere is rather sour. A government minister claimed: “[The committee] has so far refused to contribute to Ukraine’s recovery. For three months, despite the urgency of our situation, they have refused to engage in substantive negotiations on the terms of a debt operation meeting the three targets established in the IMF program.” A spokesperson for the committee said this was an inaccurate description and that negotiations should start as soon as possible without preconditions and should emphasize solutions. The IMF will be urging the two sides towards finding a solution. As with Greece, the government may simply decide to walk away and default. However, if it does so, the west will surely find a way to save Ukraine.

Ukraine has not been spared the usual austerity conditions and reforms demanded for a bailout. Ukraine now has an American, Natalie Jaresko, as finance minister who was conveniently awarded citizenship on the day she was appointed to the job. She will help ensure the provisions of the bailout are met. Jaresko saysUkraine could default in July. There have already been violent demonstrations against austerity and economic conditions as shown on the appended video. The Ukrainian government could lose support very quickly if economic conditions do not improve.

Russia agrees to provide coal and electricity for the Ukraine

Putin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told TASS news that Russia has a new deal with the Ukraine to provide coal and electricity for the Ukraine. The conflict in the east has cut off coal supplies for plants in the rest of the Ukraine.

Peskov claimed that Putin had agreed to the deal as a goodwill gesture and said: "Putin made a decision to start these supplies due to the critical situation with energy supplies and despite a lack of prepayment." The agreement will see Russia supply the Ukraine with half a million tonnes of coal each month according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak. If further agreement is reached it will provide another half million. At present, Ukraine has only 1.5 million tonnes of coal in reserve whereas normally winter stocks reach 4 to 5 million tonnes. 

While normally Ukraine is self-sufficient in providing its electricity, fighting in the coal producing regions of the east has cut off coal supplies to the thermal generating stations. These provide almost 40 percent of Ukraine's electrical power. Kozak also said that he hoped the agreement would resolve problems involving Ukrainian supply of energy to the Crimea. Ukraine blocked all air and bus travel to the Crimea on Friday. The Crimean customs service said that automobile traffic was also stopped at two of three crossings but had resumed by the afternoon. A Ukrainian security official said the measures were temporary. A spokesperson for Ukrainian security Col. Andriy Lysenko claimed that the suspension resulted because "there is a high likelihood of sabotage groups entering under the guise of local people." There were three recent fatal explosions in the south including one in Odessa and another in Kherson just 60 miles north of Crimea. The disruption of transport is certain to anger residents on both sides of the border as this is the busy holiday season. 

On a more positive note, eastern rebels freed another four prisoners including three soldiers after the initial swap of 146 for 222 people held by the Ukraine government. The latest release was in Luhansk

Ukraine and rebels swap prisoners on Xmas

Although talks in Minsk so far have not reached a peace deal, there has been agreement between the eastern rebels and the Ukraine to swap prisoners, a pleasant Xmas gift for many families on both sides.

The exchange took place near the rebel-held city of Donetsk. According to the BBC the Ukraine exchanged 222 prisoners held by them for 150 soldiers held by the rebels. The Russian news agency Ria-Novosti said that the exchange took place 35 km or 22 miles north of the city of Donetsk. However, there were also some photos taken of Ukrainian soldiers in Luhansk where their mothers had come to claim them. They were apparently three who were released this Friday.

In spite of the agreement on the prisoner exchange, the talks in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, broke up back on Wednesday and no date was set for their continuation. The meeting was among the Ukraine, Russia, the rebels, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe(OSCE). Ukr and lasted for five hours. Among the costs of the rebellion so far are 4,707 killed, including 36 children. Over ten thousand have been wounded. Over half a million are internally displaced and even more are refugees outside the Ukraine.

A truce was announced originally in September, but has been broken numerous times with more than 1300 killed since then. However, since prime minister Petro Poroshenko announced a Day of Silence in early December, conflict has been much reduced even though both sides claim the other has broken the truce. The Ukrainian government accuses Russia of actively supporting the rebels. While Russia denies this it does admit that some members of its regular forces are fighting in the Ukraine as volunteers. There is evidence that Russia is also providing supplies and equipment for the rebels.

Although no final peace deal has been reached, Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the rebel group, told Interfax news on December 25th there would be more talks in the coming days though he did not give a date for resumption of the talks. The parties failed to agree to meet on Friday.

Fragile economies in Russia and Ukraine may help ceasefire in east to hold

On Friday the fragile ceasefire extended after the recent "Day of Silence" called for by the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, appeared to be holding for the most part.

Petro Poroshenko in 2010 (Kathrin Mobius)

Poroshenko had called for the "Day of Silence" back on Tuesday December 9. Poroshenko hoped that the move would lead to a more durable ceasefire and eventually peace talks. Although eastern separatists agreed to the truce, the Ukrainian military accused them of violating the agreement. A ceasefire agreed to back on Sept. 5 has been continually violated by both sides. UN estimates are that there were more than 10 casualties a day on average after the agreement up to the Day of Silence. Ukraine, and NATO as well, claim that Russia has thousands of its own troops in rebel-held areas. Russia vehemently denies this.  

Andriy Lysenko, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, said Thursday that three soldiers had been killed in the last 24 hours and that there had been 22 violations of the ceasefire since the Day of Silence began. Talks scheduled for this week had been called off due to the level of continuing violence. 

However, on Friday Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko sounded a much more positive note. While speaking in Sydney, Australia, he said that Friday was the "first 24 hours in the last seven months when we have had a 'real' halt to clashes." Although a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military said that one soldier was wounded by gunfire the truce was holding generally on both sides. The eastern separatists said they remained interested in discussions. 

The Russians are facing a deepening economic crisis. The economy is being hurt by western sanctions but even more by falling oil prices. The ruble has dropped over 40 percent in value against the dollar since June. The Ukrainian economy is even worse shape. The value of Ukrainian currency has also fallen drastically and foreign reserves are falling so quickly that some analysts think that there may be a default within weeks.

 Ukraine will also face stringent conditions attached to loans from the IMF. The loan is denominated in dollars and euros. To make payments Ukraine will no doubt sell off its assets at fire sale prices to western buyers. The loan is discussed in detail here. Late in November, Ukraine cut off financial ties with areas held by the rebels. While this will save sending pension money and other payments to the areas, it will make the rebels more dependent on Russia and in effect confirms that they do not have the rights of other Ukrainians. Citizens in the area will no longer be able to use international credit card and banking transactions. Loans made to those in rebel held territories are unlikely to be repaid after this move I should think. Both Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs have little to gain by moves such as this. 

While Ukrainian oligarchs are anxious to develop greater ties with the west, it makes little business sense to completely cut off profitable ties to Russia. Even the chocolate king Poroshenko has, or had, profitable investments in Russia. So far Russia has apparently held back from explicit monetary support for the rebels but it may now be under pressure from the rebels to do so. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also expressed optimism: “A real chance has emerged to restore peace in Ukraine. It was difficult, but there is still a truce and a cease-fire.” Lavrov also said that Russia viewed rebel-held areas as part of Ukraine's future. He called for "political dialogue, which should ultimately lead to constitutional reform in Ukraine with the participation of all regions and political forces in the country". Nevertheless Russia appears to be supplying more military equipment and personnel to rebels according to Lysenko, the Ukrainian military spokesperson. 

Meanwhile the US has increased sanctions on Russia while sending arms and other aid to the Ukraine: Significantly, the bill authorizes the president to make available defensive weapons, services and training to Ukraine, including anti-tank weapons, crew weapons and ammunition, counter-artillery radar, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and command and communications equipment. It also includes additional aid for Ukraine, earmarked to help Ukraine loosen its reliance on Russian energy, and strengthen civil society. This will add even more tension to already tense US-Russia relations. In spite of huge debts, Ukraine will double its defense budget next year, as noted on the appended video. 

New Ukrainian finance minister an American and president of USAID project

Ukrainian President Poroshenko with John Kerry

Natalie Jaresko was granted Ukrainian citizenship just this week. Jaresko was president and CEO of Western NIS Enterprise Fund(WNISEF) a project funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

WNISEF was a fund of $150 million originally used to spur business activity and investment in the Ukraine. The website of the fund is here but is apparently undergoing renovations! The website is run by Horizon Capital of which Jaresko is the cofounder and managing partner. Horizon Capital manages WNISEF's investments and collected fees for doing so that have exceeded $1 million in recent years according to the 2012 report. The 2012 report shows that not only were there substantial management fees paid to Horizon Capital but that there were other "insider" dealings: In the 2012 report, the section on “related party transactions” covered some two pages and included not only the management fees to Jaresko’s Horizon Capital ($1,037,603 in 2011 and $1,023,689 in 2012) but also WNISEF’s co-investments in projects with the Emerging Europe Growth Fund [EEGF], where Jaresko was founding partner and chief executive officer. Jaresko’s Horizon Capital also managed EEGF.

 The report also lists several other deals involving WNISEF and EEGF. This all took place during the period before president Yanukovych was overthrown. His regime was plagued by charges of corruption. The 2012 report of WNISEF shows that the value of the Fund was then under $100 million. US taxpayers had already lost one third of their investment.

 Jaresko's ex-husband Ihor Figlius has made allegations of improper dealings by Jaresko but his allegations stopped after a court order to stop his whistleblowing at the insistence of Jaresko.The details of the dispute are related in an article by John Helmer here: Exactly what happened when Jaresko left the State Department to go into her government-paid business in Ukraine has been spelled out by her ex-husband in papers filed in the Chancery Court of Delaware in 2012 and 2013. …Without Figlus and without the US Government, Jaresko would not have had an investment business in Ukraine. The money to finance the business, and their partnership stakes, turns out to have been loaned to Figlus and Jaresko from Washington.” Helmer claims that when Figlus reviewed company records in 2011, he concluded that some loans were improper. Lacking funds to investigate the matter further he turned the matter over to Mark Rachkevych, a reporter for the Kyiv Post for further investigation. However, Figlus had signed a non-disclosure agreement and Jaresko was granted an injunction preventing Figlus from revealing any further material about company dealings.

 The Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, himself an oligarch, cited Jaresko's experience in WNISEF and EEGF as his reason for choosing an American to run Ukrainian finances and grant her Ukrainian citizenship.

Republican hawks plan new foreign policy agenda for US

The Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate and increased representation in the House will strengthen the role of war hawks in Congress and bring in many newcomers who also approve a more aggressive war plan for the U.S.

The new members do not take office for another two months but they together with Senator John McCain and Senator Bob Corker are already meeting in secret. In the new Senate they will no doubt chair powerful Senate committees. Senator McCain confirmed the meetings and said that there were discussions on starting to send arms to Ukraine. McCain will be chair of the Armed Services Committee and will have on board many hawkish allies. Given Obama's weakened position he may decide to escalate US involvement on many fronts even though the president still will have plenty of power to veto legislation he does not approve. As a lame-duck leader during the next two years, some foes of the US may feel that Obama's power is so diminished that they will be less cowed by any threats from him. As Aaaron Miller of the Wilson Centre put it: “The world sees a lame duck with his authority undermined. It will be the perception of a diminished President who will have a difficult time sailing the already difficult waters of Washington.” There are some issues that the Republicans and Obama may agree on. One is increased support for funding the fight against Ebola. Obama says that he will also seek support from Congress for more military engagement in Syria. He can probably easily obtain this, especially if he is willing to increase involvement considerably to please Republican hawks. Senator McCain even wants boots on the ground beyond the 1500 or so that are already there. The Republicans may also be quite willing to give Obama fast-track authority in negotiating the two huge trade deals with Europe and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Obama may face even more difficulties negotiating a deal with Iran before the deadline later in November. Any deal will need Congressional support and Congress could very well vote it down. Senator McCain reported he has had discussion with Bob Corker and Richard Burr both Republicans. Corker is likely to be chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Burr of the Senate Select Intelligence Committee. McCain as mentioned earlier will be chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee.The discussion concerned the development of a new national security agenda. The shape of McCain's proposed new policy will bring the US into more conflict around the globe: “Burr and Corker and I will be working closely together on everything. For example, arms for Ukraine’s [government], examination of our strategy in the Middle East, our assets with regard to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in the region, China’s continued encroachment in the South China Sea.” Ron Paul the libertarian and father of Senator Rand Paul tweeted: “Republican control of the Senate = expanded neocon wars in Syria and Iraq. Boots on the ground are coming!” William Kristol who edits the conservative Weekly Standard agreed saying: “I think Ron Paul told the truth. And the truth is that his son had a bad election season and the Republicans who were elected are various species of hawks and not Rand Paul-like doves.” Senator McCain said that one of his first projects on the Senate Armed Services Committee will be to end sequestration since it requires military budget cuts across the board. This could clear the way for increased military spending. The Republicans also want to explore the role of the US intelligence community in negotiations with Iran. Republicans would like to impose even more sanctions on Iran.They also are against Iran for its support of Assad and Hezbollah. Senator McCain complained: “The Iranians are helping [Syrian dictator] Bashar Assad,” McCain added. “They are the ones that got the 5,000 Hezbollah guys into the fight [against Syria’s rebels], they are gaining more and more influence in Baghdad. And we somehow believe we make a nuclear deal with them and that will lead to other areas of cooperation.” While McCain will no doubt support the US role against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria he would like a new Authorization of the Use of Military Force. The present act was passed back in 2001 and referred to action against Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Obama had claimed that this gave him the authority to act in Iraq against IS without Congressional approval but many legal scholars questioned the claim since the IS was booted out of Al Qaeda and has fought against Al Qaeda in Syria.

Russia and Ukraine still need to finalize natural gas deal

After meetings on Friday between Putin and Poroshenko and then between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators and the EU Commission over the weekend, it appeared that an agreement would be finalized today but no accord was reached.

An interim deal was reached over the weekend. Progress was made in September and the interim deal would have provided Ukraine with sufficient natural gas to carry it through the winter unless the weather was quite cold. The meeting today was unable to work out problems having to do with Ukraine's ability to pay for the gas. The European Energy Commission, Ukraine, and Russia did agree on the price that Ukraine would pay for the gas $385 per thousand cubic meters providing the money was paid in advance. While Alexander Novak claimed that Russia needed further assurances that Ukraine could pay for the gas, there was also agreement that the group would meet again in Brussels in a week to try to resolve the issue.
 Ukraine is in desperate need of funds. It had requested another $2.55 billion in credit from the EU earlier in the day before the meeting. Ukraine had already agreed to pay off $3.1 billion it owes Russia for gas in order to ensure that Russia will supply gas this winter, even though Ukraine took the issue to an international court. Many EU countries are anxious to resolve the issue between Ukraine and Russia to ensure that their own supplies of natural gas from Russia are not disrupted. The EU receives about a third of its natural gas from Russia and about half of that comes through Ukraine. Russia too wants a deal since Gazprom which is state-controlled earns about $6 billion every month through its sales of natural gas to the EU.
The EU has brokered talks since last May when Russian president Vladimir Putin asked the EU to intervene. European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said: "We made another step towards a possible solution and are close to an agreement on important elements. Others still need to be addressed, such as the financial gap. At the next meeting, which we hope will be the final trilateral meeting, next Wednesday here in Brussels, we will be able to reach a decision and we'll have the signature of all the partners." In another move that might help solve the problem President Putin announced that Ukraine's debt for gas supplies was $4.5 billion, whereas Gazprom had previously said it was $5.3 billion.
Before Friday earlier talks were described as not very productive. However, after the meeting with Putin, Poroshenko announced in a TV interview the price agreement of $385 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas that would apply until the end of March next year. Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine but not the EU in June of this year, demanding that Ukraine pay off its existing debt. Ukraine and its European allies are anxious to forge an agreement before the cold weather sets in. Poroshenko wants the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine pay off its debt to Gazprom. IMF officials will visit Ukraine after a new cabinet is formed following elections in mid-November. Ukrainian officials claim that the IMF will need to adjust the existing $17 billion bailout program as economic conditions in Ukraine have deteriorated significantly since April when the agreement was signed.

China opposes any further US and EU sanctions on Russia

China has been careful in its responses to the Ukrainian situation. While it wants to retain Russia as an ally it is concerned that the Crimea referendum could set a precedent for areas such as Tibet, which is part of China.

The European Union has threatened Russia with further sanctions after Russia was accused of sending troops into Ukraine to help separatists in their battle with Ukrainian forces. There are divisions among European leaders and it is not clear when any further sanctions might come into effect.
Spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Qin Gang, said: "A political solution is the only way out, sanctions do not help to solve the underlying problems in Ukraine. It may lead to new and more complicating factors." China has said also that it respects Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and wants to develop friendly relations with it. In a joint statement released during an official visit of Russian president Vladimir Putin to China both countries rejected the use of sanctions as political tools. As well the two condemned attempts to "encourage and finance" regime change a clear swipe at US actions in Ukraine and elsewhere to ensure election of pro-western regimes in countries around the periphery of Russia.
Sanctions by the west have encouraged Russia to turn east and in particular to grow business and trade with China. The two countries have already signed numerous, energy and business deals. The joint statement promised " a new stage in full-scale partnership and strategic relations". The two countries agreed to coordinate foreign policy where they have common priorities. President Putin said: “We have common priorities on a global and on a regional scale. We’ve agreed upon closer coordination of our foreign policy steps, including those in the UN, BRICS and APEC"
Both countries oppose attempts by the US and EU to impose sanctions. The joint statement said: “The parties stress the necessity to… reject unilateral sanctions rhetoric.Economic restrictions applied as punishment are no better than financial aid to forces that seek “a change in constitutional system of another country,” Russia has accused the US of spending $5 billion to promote regime change in the Ukraine.
 Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament also noted China's objections to sanctions against Russia. She said that both Russia and China believe that the sanctions are an attempt "to exert pressure on sovereign states to change their position and to weaken them and suppress their development." She thanked China for taking a public position in opposition to the western sanctions imposed upon Moscow. She noted also that Moscow and Beijing shared many common positions on a number of global issues.

IMF loan to Ukraine chains it to the west

Back in April of this year after the February uprising against president Yanukovych in the Ukraine, the IMF approved a loan of $17 billion to the new Ukrainian government.

The $17 billion is eight times the normal quota. Usually a country will be able at most to borrow just twice its annual quota. However, the Ukraine loan is four times even that amount, indicating that the IMF was very anxious to grant the loan even though past loans have not worked out well, as when a loan was made previously in 2012: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund has decided that Ukraine is expected to engage in post-program monitoring1 with the Fund, following the expiration on December 27, 2012 of the 29-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with exceptional access (SDR 10 billion; US$ 15.2 billion; 729 percent of quota). The program went off-track with only two purchases made in the total amount of SDR 2.25 billion (about US$ 3.4 billion). As of June 30, 2013 Ukraine’s outstanding credit to the Fund was SDR 5.27 billion (about US$ 8 billion; 383.8 percent of quota). The Board's decision was adopted on a lapse-of-time basis2 on Friday, July 26.
 Given that the new loan is even larger and more out of line with normal practice, this indicates how anxious the IMF is to tie Ukraine into western international financial institutions. On August 29 the IMF signed off on the loan. The IMF signed off on the loan even though Ukraine was in effect fighting a civil war, was suffering from capital flights, and their balance of payments was in a state of collapse.
This article suggests the loan supported Ukrainian currency long enough for Ukrainian oligarchs to move their accounts to hard currency accounts in the west. The war in the east is further damaging an already faltering economy destroying basic infrastructure for power generation, water, and even hospitals. Many citizens are internally displaced or fled to Russia. Yet an IMF press release praised the Ukrainian government: “The IMF praised the government’s commitment to economic reforms despite the ongoing conflict.” John Helmer has calculated that of the $3.2 billion disbursed by the IMF at beginning of May this year, $3.1 billion had disappeared offshore by the middle of last month. It appears that the financial situation is worsening and that another $5 billion may be needed over above the IMF loan of $17 billion.
President Poroshenko one of the oligarchs may be threatened from the right by another oligarch, Igor Kolomysky, who has his own private militia. Given that Poroshenko has not yet been able to defeat the separatists and economic austerity measures demanded by the IMF will decrease his political popularity, it is possible that there could be another coup by forces even more to the right and nationalist. Ukraine's debt is not dominated in Ukrainian currency but dollars and euros. With Ukrainian currency falling in value the Ukraine needs to gain dollars and euros to finance its debt. To do this, Ukraine will need to sell off its resources to western interests, often at fire sale prices, and in return it will receive the dollars and euros it will need to finance its debt.
 There are clear links to the US at this stage. Senate Bill 2277 directs the US Agency for International Development(USAID) to guarantee loans for the development of oil and gas in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. There are links to the Obama administration as well in all of this. Vice-president Joe Biden's son recently was appointed to the board of Burisma a Ukrainian company although it is registered in Cyprus. The Ukrainian government has even helped using its military: “Ukrainian troopers help installing shale gas production equipment near the east Ukrainian town of Slavyansk, which they bombed and shelled for the three preceding months, the Novorossiya news agency reports on its website citing local residents. Civilians protected by Ukrainian army are getting ready to install drilling rigs. More equipment is being brought in, they said, adding that the military are encircling the future extraction area.” Kolomoysky is reported to a major investor in Burisma. He was appointed by the Ukrainian government to be governor of Dnipropetrovsk a south-central province. In the Eastern Ukraine there had been opposition to fracking even before the Maidan demonstrations.
 There is pressure from the IMF and World Bank for Ukraine to deregulate its agriculture.The Investment Finance Corporation of the World Bank has advised Ukraine "to delete provisions regarding mandatory certification of food in the listed laws of Ukraine and Government Decree," and also "to avoid unnecessary costs for businesses" by regulations on pesticides and food additives.
As part of its efforts to punish Russia for thwarting plans to orient the Ukraine more towards the west and to reliance on western funding, there are various plans afoot to ensure that the IMF loans to do not for the most part go towards paying off the huge debt that the Ukraine owes Russia. Anna Gelpem. a former UK Treasury official wants a $3 billion bond negotiated by Russia's sovereign wealth fund to be declared by law foreign aid rather than a commercial loan. She said: “The United Kingdom can refuse to enforce English-law contracts for the money Russia lent,” thereby taking “away creditor remedies for default on this debt.” Gelpem suggests an even more extensive repudiation of debt: Ukraine may claim that its debt to Russia is “odious.” This applies to situations where “an evil ruler signs contracts that burden future generations long after the ruler is deposed.” She adds that “Repudiating all debts incurred under Yanukovich would discourage lending to corrupt leaders.” Gelpem suggests that it be a universal principle that contracts that are "used to advance military and political objectives..should lose their claim to court enforcement". This should mean then that the IMF loan to the Ukraine need not be paid off. That would help out the Ukraine most of all. As the appended video shows the IMF loan comes with many unpopular provisions.

Last Orange Government ousted in the Ukraine

Although the Orange revolution has floundered and the arch-nemesis of the revolution is back in power the democratic process in the Ukraine has been strengthened. Tymoshenko first fought with her ally Yushchenko and then her government failed to rescue the sinking Ukraine economy that shrunk by 15 per cent last year. Yanukovych, the new president, will need to form a government or call new elections. He is for closer relationships with Russia. Under Yanukovych the Ukraine is not likely to seek NATO membership.

Tymoshenko's government ousted in Ukraine

Ukraine's parliament ousts Tymoshenko government in a no-confidence vote

ANNA MELNICHUK and SIMON SHUSTER
AP News



The Ukrainian parliament ousted the government of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, dealing a final blow to the leadership of the pro-Western Orange Revolution and leaving her to lead the opposition in parliament.


The vote followed weeks of shifting alliances in the parliament after the pro-Western Tymoshenko lost her bid for the presidency to Kremlin-friendly Viktor Yanukovych.

Yanukovych has moved quickly to consolidate power, and secured a major victory as the no-confidence resolution passed with 243 votes in the 450-seat chamber.

The parliament now has 30 days to form a new governing coalition. It is expected to coalesce around Yanukovych's Party of Regions, and would then be able to put forward a new prime minister.

If no new coalition is formed, Yanukovych will be able to disband parliament and call early elections.

Addressing the chamber ahead of the vote, Tymoshenko said she would embrace her new role as an opposition leader, and her speech showed a level of fervor that was absent during the tumultuous weeks following her election defeat.

She said her new goal will be to hold Yanukovych and his team to account for every decision they make.

"We will protect Ukraine from this new calamity that has befallen her," she said.

... The coalition, formed in December 2008, was loosely centered on the political ideals of the Orange Revolution, a series of massive street protests in 2004 led by former President Viktor Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.

Those protests against vote fraud resulted in the Supreme Court overturning Yanukovych's election victory in 2004. Yushchenko, a reformer who wanted closer integration with the West, won a revote. Tymoshenko became his prime minister.

But relations between the two deteriorated significantly and led to near-paralysis of the government as the country staggered through the global economic downturn.

In Wednesday's vote, seven of Tymoshenko's own party members voted to remove her, but she will still command the second largest faction in parliament.

Before the vote, the leaders of Yanukovych's party lambasted Tymoshenko for failing to fend off the effects of the global financial crisis, which shrank Ukraine's economy by 15 percent last year.

"For the period of her haphazard policymaking, the state has suffered the deepest social and economic crisis that Ukraine has not known for 20 years. We did not see any anti-crisis program from Tymoshenko," said Mykola Azarov, the deputy head of the Party of Regions, which has named him as a candidate for the prime minister's post.

___

Yushchenko Orang Revolution figurehead concedes defeat in Ukraine

Interesting that this is covered in Pakistan but there is not much coverage in the mainstream western press. The two remaining front runners who will face a runoff election are both more pro-Russian. This is in effect the end of the Orange Revolution although as Yuschenko points out there is now a more democratic system in the Ukraine. However whoever wins the tilt of Ukrainian politics will now be more toward Russia than the West.

This is from thenews (Pakistan)

Yushchenko concedes defeat



Thursday, January 21, 2010
KIEV: President Viktor Yushchenko on Wednesday said he accepted defeat in Ukraine’s presidential elections but defiantly vowed to remain in politics as the next stage of the campaign heated up.

Yushchenko, the figurehead of the 2004 Orange Revolution, won just 5.45 per cent of the vote in the first round elections on Sunday amid widespread disappointment with his presidency.

But in a characteristically defiant statement, Yushchenko said that the holding of free elections, warmly praised by international observers, was in itself proof of the victory of the Orange Revolution. “As head of state, I accept the will of the people in the January 17 elections. The main thing is the elections were free, democratic and legal,” he told reporters in his first public comment after the vote.

“But national and state circumstances do not give me the moral right to leave political life,” he added.

Yushchenko had vowed to turn Ukraine into a prosperous nation anchored in the European Union and NATO but his ambitions were undermined by political infighting and a dire economic crisis.

Analysts also critisised the president — a passionate defender of Ukraine’s cultural heritage — for focusing on grandiose historical projects at the expense of concrete reform.

Yushchenko’s result left him in a lowly fifth place, behind frontrunners Viktor Yanukovich and Yulia Tymoshenko, who will now contest the run-off vote on February 7. Both are seen as more pro-Moscow than the incumbent president.

But after observers led by the OSCE praised the elections as of “high quality,” Yushchenko said the vote had set an “example” for the entire former Soviet Union.

The apparent success of the elections contrasted with the last polls in 2004 where mass rigging blamed on Yanukovich’s supporters prompted the peaceful protests of the Orange Revolution that swept the old order from power.

“The fact that the elections were free means that the Orange Revolution actually won and did not only win in word but also in deed,” Yushchenko said.

Child Porno and Ukraine politics

Part of this may be politically motivated but there also seems hard evidence of wrongdoing by some. Sex scandals in politics seem to be becoming globalised as with everything else! This is from kyivpost.


Parliamentarians, others implicated in escalating child sex abuse scandal15 October, 21:33 Staff reports, Kyiv Post



Some of the alleged child abuse tookplace at Artek, a popular Soviet-eracamp in Crimea.
Suspects from Tymoshenko camp say charges are untrue.
(Kyiv Post Staff) - Three parliament deputies are implicated in an escalating child sex-abuse scandal, while the father of two children allegedly victimized has been arrested as the main suspect in the case. At least two of the lawmakers have publicly denied the accusations.
Dmytro Polyukhovych, a journalist from ICTV television channel and a contributor to the respected Zerkalo Nedeli newspaper, was detained two months ago and remains in custody on court orders, according to prosecutors. He is the key suspect in the criminal case, which commenced in May.
Three parliamentarians from the Bloc of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko are also named as accomplices, as well as officials from Artek, a popular children’s camp on the Crimean peninsula, and a priest.
“This is inexpressible horror. The children pointed to everyone who is publicly mentioned. They told us the details and are ready to identify [them], even by their sexual organs,” said Tetyana Montian, the lawyer handling the case on behalf of the children and their mother since April.
The mother of two children told authorities that the minors had accused their adopted father, Polyukhovych, of raping them many times, starting three years ago in Artek. They said their adoptive father had accomplices and that the assaults were videotaped.
Police this week confirmed some details of the case, and said they had restored 32,000 pornographic images and video clips on Polyukhovych’s home computer after his detention. Police also found that he sold some of this information to porn websites and received payment to an Internet-based account. He also allegedly ran a website offering sexual services with children.
Victoria Belova, spokeswoman for the Interior Ministry, confirmed these and other details in the case. She said that the evidence against the main suspect is so strong that “he won’t be able to wiggle out of this one.”
The gruesome details were spelled out in an Oct. 7 letter by parliamentarian Hryhoriy Omelchenko to President Victor Yushchenko. The letter was leaked to the press. Omelchenko confirmed the documents’ authenticity to the Kyiv Post.
“The children were systematically raped in the last three years. There are assessments by psychologists, who checked the truthfulness of the children’s and their mother’s statements with the help of a lie detector test. There wasn’t a single answer where experts could say they’re not telling the truth,” Omelchenko said.
According to his letter, the children also named parliament deputy Victor Ukolov, and a priest, as those adults who “took part in rape and group orgies.” Also named were officials from the Artek camp.
On Oct. 15, Ukolov denied involvement in his personal blog on the Ukrainska Pravda news portal, and insisted described efforts to incriminate him as part of a politically-motivated attack. But he also said he has already fled Kyiv. “I have left Kyiv. I am staying in a faraway village, trying to understand where my mistake was,” he wrote.
According to the blog, Ukolov knew Polyukhovych and admitted to helping him in May by providing $2,000 to hire a lawyer. But later, when he learned more about the alleged incident, Ukolov said he halted all assistance. He said he now “wishes a fair trial and punishment” for Polyukhovych.
“I don’t see what I could have done differently,” Ukolov wrote. “Possibly, I could have called [the mother of children]. As far as the rest is concerned, my conscience is clear.”
Montian said the children described how other children, poorly dressed, were singled out in the camp as victims. She said the kids could have been orphans from boarding schools.
She also said two other Tymoshenko camp lawmakers were singled out by name. “These surnames were named to me by the children,” she told the Kyiv Post. One of them said he was going to sue the children’s mother for spreading untruthful information about him.
“Yesterday I laughed at this whole situation because it’s too absurd to be taken seriously,” Serhiy Teriokhin, one of the lawmakers accused, told Ukrainski Novyny news agency on Oct. 15. The lawmakers implicated insist that the case is fabricated and politically motivated. Ukolov, who until recently was in charge of advertising for the prime minister’s presidential campaign, said he was quitting politics to avoid more smear campaigns.
“Just think about it – we’re electing a president of the state, but instead of discussing development programs and candidates’ achievements in the past we’re having to chew the fictitious shit thrown at us by the Party of the Regions,” Ukolov wrote in his blog, referring to the initial Oct. 12 accusations made against him and colleagues by Vadim Kolesnichenko, member of the Regions party led by presidential candidate Victor Yanukovych.
“This is a well prepared and planned provocation against our political force. It was planned by the president’s office and by the Regions party,” said Andriy Kozhemyakin, a Tymoshenko lawmaker.
But Omelchenko was a Tymoshenko bloc deputy until Oct. 14. He quit because of the scandal. He said he has also been warned to make sure the mother and children are protected, otherwise “something can be done to influence their minds or eyesight so they cannot identify the rapists,” he said.
There are also fears that the deputies’ names were leaked to the press to allow them to escape justice. “Ukolov? They say he’s already in hiding,” Montian said. “His brother is not picking up the phone. I think we are unlikely to see him, just like [Victor] Lozinsky,” a former Tymoshenko bloc lawmaker in hiding after being accused earlier this year of murder in Kirovohrad Oblast.

Crimea Defies Kiev On Georgia

The only other country than Russia to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia so far is Nicaragua. Many other countries such as China fear recognition would only encourage separatist groups within Chinaès borders. The Crimea is autonomous within the Ukraine and there is considerable Russian influence. The Russian Black Sea fleet is centered in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
With the collapse of the Ukrainian coalition there could be considerable instability in the Ukraine and no guarantee of a continuing pro-Western government.

Crimea Defies Kiev On Georgia18 September 2008SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine -- Lawmakers in Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula, defying the country's pro-Western leaders, called on the national parliament to follow Russia's example and recognize Georgia's two separatist regions. Crimea, a Ukrainian region with a degree of self-government, is populated mainly by ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers, and local leaders have often adopted pro-Russian positions or even sought to rejoin Russia. Some analysts suggested that Russia's conflict with Georgia over South Ossetia could rekindle pro-Moscow or even separatist sentiment in Crimea. The local assembly voted 79-8 to urge Ukraine's national parliament to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Only Russia and Nicaragua have done so, an action denounced by the United States and European Union. The appeal said Crimea's parliament "expresses its backing for the peoples of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and their right to self-determination and supports the Russian Federation's actions in ensuring security in those republics." Crimea's parliament is dominated by the Regions Party of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, which has been friendlier to Russia than other political forces and has called for recognition of the two regions.Ukraine's leaders, committed to joining NATO, denounced Moscow's intervention in South Ossetia in support of what Moscow says are Russian nationals there. They deny any suggestion that a similar conflict could erupt in Crimea. Crimea became a part of Russia in the late 18th century and was formally handed to Soviet Ukraine in 1954, when the collapse of the Soviet Union was unthinkable. The region remains autonomous, though Ukrainian authorities cracked down on separatism in the mid-1990s. Russian nationalist politicians call periodically for the return of at least Sevastopol, the Crimean port where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based under a lease agreement. The Kremlin dissociates itself from such statements and says it respects Ukraine's existing borders. But it also complains that Ukraine pursues policies harming the interests of ethnic Russians.

Pat Buchanan: Should We Fight for South Ossetia?

Bush' support for extending NATO to the borders of Russia is quite provocative. Imagine the reaction if Russia joined a security arrangement with Canada and Mexico guaranteeing that Russia would intervene if either was threatened by any other country. The U.S. could face Russians on their doorstep. When the USSR intervened in Cuba and a Marxist regime "threatened" in Grenada and Nicaragua the USA itself intervened to roll back this influence in its sphere of influence. The U.S. still has a trade embargo against Cuba. So the Russians on the other hand are supposed to stand by and watch while NATO an organisation designed originally to protect members against attacks from Russia(USSR)recruits members on its borders and in countries that were originally part of the USSR. Why Bush wants a new Cold War is hard to fathom. As Buchanan points out the US military with a humungous budget is strained to the limits already. Many European countries are wary of the expansion since Russia supplies a lot of their natural gas among other things. The Missile Defence system plans have already miffed Russia. Now Bush is at it again.


Should We Fight for South Ossetia?
by Patrick J. Buchanan
Posted: 04/01/2008

In echo of Warren Harding's "A Return to Normalcy" speech of 1920,
George Bush last week declared, "Normalcy is returning back to Iraq."

The term seemed a mite ironic. For, as Bush spoke, Iraqis were dying
in the hundreds in the bloodiest fighting in months in Basra, the
Shia militias of Moqtada al Sadr were engaging Iraqi and U.S. troops
in Sadr City, and mortar shells were dropping into the Green Zone.

One begins to understand why Gen. Petraeus wants a "pause" in the
pullout of U.S. forces, and why Bush agrees. This will leave more
U.S. troops in Iraq on Inauguration Day 2009, than on Election Day
2006, when the country voted the Democrats into power to bring a
swift end to the war.

A day before Bush went to the U.S. Air Force Museum in Dayton, Ohio,
to speak of normalcy returning to Iraq, he was led down into "the
Tank," a secure room at the Pentagon, to be briefed on the crisis
facing the U.S. Army and Marine Corps because of the constant
redeployments to Afghanistan and Iraq.

As The Associated Press' Robert Burns reported, the Joint Chiefs
"laid out their concerns about the health of the U.S. force." First
among them is "that U.S. forces are being worn thin, compromising the
Pentagon's ability to handle crises elsewhere in the world. ... The
U.S. has about 31,000 troops in Afghanistan and 156,000 in Iraq."

"Five plus years in Iraq," the generals and admirals told Bush,
"could create severe, long-term problems, particularly for the Army
and Marine Corps."

In short, the two long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are wearing down
U.S. ground forces of fewer than 700,000, one in every six of them
women, to such an extent U.S. commanders called Bush and Dick Cheney
to a secret meeting to awaken them to the strategic and morale crisis.

This is serious business. With the Taliban revived and the violence
in Iraq rising toward pre-surge levels, the Joint Chiefs are telling
the commander in chief that the U.S. Army and Marine Corps are worn
out.

Crunch time is coming. And what is President Bush doing?

He is flying to Bucharest, Romania, to persuade Europe to bring
Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, which means a U.S. commitment to treat
any Russian attack on Kiev or Tbilisi like an attack on Kansas or
Texas.

Article V of the NATO treaty declares that "an armed attack against
one or more (allies) shall be considered an attack against them all."
Added language makes clear that the commitment to assist an ally is
not unconditional. Rather, each signatory will assist the ally under
attack with "such action as it deems necessary, including the use of
armed force."

Yet, it was understood during the Cold War that if a NATO ally like
Norway, West Germany or Turkey, which bordered on the Soviet Union or
Warsaw Pact, were attacked, America would come to its defense.

Can any sane man believe the United States should go to war with a
nuclear-armed Russia over Stalin's birthplace, Georgia?

Two provinces of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, have seceded,
with the backing of Russia. And there are 10 million Russian-speaking
Ukrainians in the east of that country, and Moscow and Kiev are at
odds over which is sovereign on the Crimean Peninsula.

To bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would put America in the
middle of these quarrels. We could be dragged into a confrontation
with Russia over Abkhazia, or South Ossetia, or who owns Sebastopol.
To bring these ex-republics of the Soviet Union into NATO would be an
affront to Moscow not unlike 19th century Britain bringing the
Confederate state of South Carolina under the protection of the
British Empire.

How would Lincoln's Union have reacted to that?

With a weary army and no NATO ally willing to fight beside us, how
could we defend Georgia if Tbilisi, once in NATO, defied Moscow and
invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- and Russia bombed the Georgian
army and capital? Would we declare war? Would we send the 82nd
Airborne into the Pankisi Gorge?

Fortunately, Germany is prepared to veto any Bush attempt to put
Ukraine or Georgia on a fast track into NATO. But President Bush is
no longer the problem. John McCain is.

As Anatol Lieven writes in the Financial Times, McCain supports a
restoration of Georgian rule over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and
NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. He wants to throw Russia out
of the G-8 -- and talks flippantly of bombing Iran.

Says McCain, "I would institute a policy called 'rogue state
rollback.' I would arm, train, equip, both from without and from
within, forces that would eventually overthrow the governments and
install free and democratically elected governments."

Wonderful. A Second Crusade for Global Democracy. But with the Joint
Chiefs warning of a war-weary Army and Marine Corps, who will fight
all the new wars the neocons and their new champion have in store for
us?

Bush backs ambitions of Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO

This is from CNN. NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. It was part of the Cold War against the USSR. Now after an Orwellian change in its geographical membership it is being used by the U.S. to start a new Cold War by surrounding Russia with NATO states that will help advance U.S. policies.
Of course NATO is now a global surrogate for U.S. power acting on behalf of the U.S. and its interests in Afghanistan! As with NATO mission in Afghanistan where the public in contributing countries often have large majorities against the mission, Ukrainians do not want to join NATO. It makes no difference.

Bush stirs controversy over NATO membership

Bush backs ambitions of Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members

He told Ukranian president "the U.S. strongly supports your request"

Russia opposes Ukraine's accession warning it would cause a "deep crisis"

France and Germany are also believed to be skeptical about the move

By CNN's European Political Editor Robin Oakley
(CNN) -- President George W. Bush has not wasted any time stirring the pot on his latest visit to Europe for the NATO Summit starting in Bucharest, Romania, Wednesday.

With less than ten months to go in office, Bush is looking to add some luster to a foreign policy legacy seen by many as little short of disastrous. His latest initiative is to give a hefty push to the ambitions of two former Soviet Union states, Ukraine and Georgia, to become members of NATO.

Stopping off in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev for talks with President Viktor Yuschenko, Bush declared that he was strongly behind the two countries' bids to join NATO, for which the first step would be admission to a "MAP" or Membership Action Plan.

He told Yuschenko at a joint media facility that "the U.S. strongly supports your request" and added that he would argue forcefully in Bucharest for that to come about.

The only snag for Bush in his latest ambition is that his eagerness to welcome the former Soviet Republics into NATO is not shared by several of the other 25 members of NATO. It is also bitterly resented by Russia, whose President Putin he will be meeting for the last time face to face in the Russian ski town of Sochi on Sunday. (In May Putin gives way to Dimitry Medvedev, whose Prime Minister he will become).

Almost as Bush was reiterating his support for Ukraine and its leader, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin warned that Ukraine's accession into NATO would cause a "deep crisis" in Kiev's relations with Moscow. He added that any incorporation of Ukraine into the alliance would also badly hurt Russia's relations with the West.

Putin has already warned that if Ukraine were to join NATO and later to join Poland and the Czech Republic in housing installations for America's planned Missile Defense program in Europe then he would be forced to target short range rockets on Russia's neighbor.

But it is not just Russia which has doubts about the two countries in its "near abroad" joining the NATO alliance. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has indicated her reservations and on Tuesday French Prime Minister Francois Fillon made plain that France opposes allowing Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

In an interview with the French radio station, France Inter, Fillon declared:

"We are opposed to the entry of Georgia and Ukraine because we think that it is not a good answer to the balance of power within Europe and between Europe and Russia."

There is a deep division in NATO's ranks on the question of enlargement further east. Bush said in Kiev that he believed that membership for Ukraine and Georgia was in the interests of the Alliance as well as the countries themselves.

But a number of NATO countries disagree. They do not believe it is in their interests at this stage to further anger Russia, which has already been infuriated by the plans for the U.S. Missile Defence installations in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Others say that is too timorous an approach and one which can be explained by EU countries, which make up the bulk of NATO's membership, being dependent on Russia for more than 40 percent of their energy supplies. They say that to allow Russian threats to deter NATO from offering MAP status to Ukraine and Georgia would be handing Russia a veto on Alliance membership.

Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili says that denying the two countries the chance to move towards NATO membership would be "appeasement" of Moscow.

Supporters of Ukraine's membership like the U.S. president point out that Kiev has backed every one of NATO's military initiatives in recent years, for example in Kosovo and Afghanistan, without being a member of the Alliance. Opponents note that opinion polls show a majority of the citizens in Ukraine opposed to NATO membership.

Yuschenko said at the meeting with Bush that support had risen from 17 percent to nearly 40 percent, before his government had even begun to make the case for Ukraine joining the Alliance.

With other NATO members already simmering over the Missile Defence plan and over criticisms by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates of other nations' efforts in Afghanistan, Bush has certainly ensured a lively debate in Bucharest.







Find this article at:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/04/01/ukraine.analysis/?iref=mpstoryview






© 2008 Cable News Network.

Ukraine: Is Parliament dissolved or not dissolved?

Doesn't the Ukraine have a Supreme Court? They could refer the matter to the Supreme Court and by the time it decided the government's term would have expired anyway!


Ukraine PM defies presidential decree to dissolve parliament - 1
15:28 | 03/ 04/ 2007



(adds details throughout)

KIEV, April 3 (RIA Novosti) - Ukraine's government and parliament will continue their regular work despite the current political crisis, the prime minister said Tuesday.

President Viktor Yushchenko signed a decree Monday disbanding the parliament and calling for new legislative elections, promising they will be held in line with the Constitution and scheduling them for May 27.

"We have to wait until the decision of the Constitutional Court on the legitimacy of the presidential decree has been made," Viktor Yanukovych said at an extraordinary meeting of parliament. "Meanwhile, the Supreme Rada and the government will continue their regular work."

Yanukovych said Tuesday the Ukrainian leader's dismissal of parliament was an attempt to seize power in the country.

"We can only conclude that the presidential decree on the dissolution of parliament is aimed at usurping power, because it disbands a legitimately elected parliament," Yanukovych said during an extraordinary meeting of the Supreme Rada.

Ukraine's latest political crisis was triggered by the defection of 11 opposition members of the pro-presidential Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko Bloc to the majority coalition March 23.

The Ukrainian president said Tuesday he will sign a decree canceling the government's latest resolutions supporting parliament in its standoff with the head of state.

"Today I will sign a decree on the cancellation of the government resolutions adopted yesterday in accordance with these Supreme Rada resolutions," Yushchenko said.

Yushchenko has accused the majority coalition, led by Yanukovych, of trying to expand its power base through unconstitutional means, notably by welcoming defecting lawmakers. By law, only entire factions can join the ruling coalition.

Despite the presidential decree, the Supreme Rada decided not to cancel its meeting and adopted a number of resolutions Monday night.

In its address to the nation, it said the president had no justification to dissolve the body.

During an emergency government meeting last night, Yanukovych said Yushchenko should cancel the order and sit down at the negotiating table.

On Monday, Yushchenko held consultations with the Rada speaker and faction leaders, following which he broadcast his dissolution order in a televised address to the Ukrainian nation.

The latest reports said that coalition supporters are converging on the Supreme Rada building in Kiev, where they intend to protect parliamentarians from "orange" forces, Ukraine's Channel 5 reported Tuesday.

Yushchenko met Tuesday with the leadership of security agencies, and said military force should be ruled out in the current conflict.

"I address you as leaders commanding tens of thousands of armed personnel. The conflict we have is political, and politicians should resolve conflicts by political means," he said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Tuesday Russia calls on Ukrainian political forces to compromise and hopes the situation in the country will remain within the legal framework.

"Russia is following developments in Ukraine with attention and concern. We hope it will not go beyond the country's legal framework," the ministry said.

Rada Speaker Oleksandr Moroz said Tuesday Yuschenko will meet with Yanukovych at 11:00 a.m. GMT to discuss the political crisis following the president's decree on parliament's dissolution.

The leader of the faction of the Party of Regions, Raisa Bogatyryova, said Tuesday parliament's coalition has filed a representation with the Constitutional Court on whether the presidential decree to dismiss parliament was legal.

She said the court will work 24 hours a day and its ruling is expected in five days' time.

Asked whether the coalition will implement any ruling of the court, Bogatyryova said: "I can't comment on a nonexistent court ruling. Depending on what it is, we will make our decision."

The European Commission has called on Ukraine to settle the political situation by peaceful means.

Ukraine: The Orange Revolution turns Sour

It seems odd that the Ukraine constitution prohibits politicians from crossing the floor. Or maybe it is odd that in Canada it is allowed and rather common practice! After all if people elect you on a certain platform why should you be allowed to represent a competing and perhaps contradictory platform!
The Orange Revolution seems to be losing steam and a more pro-Russian regime may very well win the election.


Ukraine president disbands parliament, calls election
Political crisis deepens
Last Updated: Monday, April 2, 2007 | 7:18 PM ET
The Associated Press
President Viktor Yushchenko has disbanded Ukraine's parliament and called an early election in a power struggle among parliamentary leaders.

In a televised speech Monday, Yushchenko made the announcement for a May 27 election after talks with parliamentary leaders failed.

Yushchenko has accused Premier Viktor Yanukovych of trying to usurp power by unconstitutionally expanding his majority in parliament, and has warned the premier that he must back down.

"The political crisis that Ukraine goes through today is caused by the parliament crisis," Yushchenko said.

Yanukovych has said he seeks compromise, but will not bow to any ultimatums.

The stakes are high for the nation of 47 million and for Yushchenko, who is
under enormous pressure from all sides.



Yushchenko's former Orange Revolution allies held a major rally in the capital on Saturday, urging him to dissolve parliament.

In another development, Yanukovych's backers have begun laying the ground work for a competing tent camp near the parliament building to pressure the president not to dissolve the 450-seat house.

"I do understand the policy of the opposition, they want to ruin everything and
after that to blame the government that it is working badly," one Yanukovych supporter said, referring to Yushchenko's supporters.

"They are staging provocations all the time. And [opposition leader] Yulia [Tymoshenko] is simply lying," Elena Pikova told AP Television News.

Allies defect
The standoff between Yushchenko and Yanukovych arose after 11 lawmakers allied with the president defected to Yanukovych's coalition last month, in violation of the constitution.

It states that the coalition can be expanded only by the addition of entire factions, not individual lawmakers.

Yanukovych now has the support of 260 lawmakers in the 450-seat house, and his party has suggested they will soon reach 300 — enough to overturn presidential vetoes and make changes to the constitution.

Yushchenko came to power after hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians flooded onto
Independence Square to protest Yanukovych's fraud-marred presidential victory in 2004.

The Supreme Court overturned Yanukovych's victory and called new elections, which Yushchenko won.

© The Canadian