Poll predicts Petro Porsohenko to win Ukraine presidential elections

New elections in the Ukraine are set for October 26. The bloc that supports President Petro Poroshenko appears to be heading for a big win according to a new poll by the GfK research group on Friday.

Poroshenko a billionaire oligarch, the chocolate king, was easily elected last May after the overthrow of his predecessor Viktor Yanukovych. His re-election will provide even more legitimacy to his plans to link more closely with the West but also his signing of the peace agreement in Minsk to give more autonomy to eastern regions held now by pro-Russian rebels.
 The poll predicts that Poroshenko's bloc would win 29.9 percent of the vote with the nearest rival being the party of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko at just 8.7 percent. Third place was the Radical Party led by the populist Oleh Lyashko with 7.6 percent. The poll shows that those associated with the party of former President Yanukovich will lose their seats even though they had held on to them during the previous election. His Regions Party appears to be a spent force in Ukrainian politics. The poll was only about the 225 of 450 seats which are elected through party lists. There are another 225 seats elected through a first-past-the post system. Many of these "single-mandate deputies" waged campaigns funded by business interests and in the past often supported Yanukovich but with the situation radically altered it is difficult to predict which if any bloc they will support this time around.
The poll showed that about five political groups were likely to receive enough votes to enter parliament. The government has been attempting to ban the Ukrainian Communist party. The Ukrainian Justice Ministry argued in court that the party should be banned because it has supported pro-Russian rebels fighting government forces in the east Ukraine. Poroshenko said that parties should be banned "by means of elections" rather than a straightforward ban through laws or court decisions.The Communist Party came in fifth at the 2012 parliamentary election receiving about 13 percent of the vote. There have been some violations of the Minsk agreement including casualties in Donetsk but on the whole so far the agreement has been observed for the most part.

Russia ratifies Eurasian Economic Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, signed a law that commits the country to the Eurasian Economic Union. The agreement comes into force on the first of January 2015 creating an economic union among Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Belarus and Kazakhstan are expected to ratify the treaty within a few days. The process of forming the union has been going on for some time with a customs union already being in place. The union will create a common market serving 170 million people. Although each country will keep its own currency, the ruble will be the union's de facto currency. The three countries will cooperate in the areas of energy, transport,, industry, and also agriculture. Union headquarters will be in Moscow with courts in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Almaty, Kazakhstan will be the site of the financial regulatory agency. Citizens of the three countries will be able to work in any of the member states without a work permit.
In just the last three years trade within the three countries, who had a customs union, increased by nearly 50 percent to $66.2 billion at the end of 2013. Only the EU and China have greater trade with Russia than the Customs Union members. Presidents of all three countries are scheduled to meet in Minsk to exchange ratification documents on October 10. Armenia is also planning to join the union soon. Negotiations and agreements for closer economic ties between a number of ex-Soviet republics have been ongoing since at least 1995.
The Customs union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus came into effect back in January 1, 2010. The agreement eliminated any tariffs between the three countries, created a common external tariff policy and also did away with non-tariff barriers to trade. The Eurasian Economic Union agreement was negotiated on May 29 this year. The presidents of Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan were also present at the original signing. At the time President Putin said: "Today we are creating a powerful, attractive center of economic development, a big regional market that unites more than 170 million people." Both Armenia and Kyrgyzstan plan to join by signing an accession treaty by the end of this year. Tajikistan has also expressed interest in joining.