Arab League summit leaders support UN-brokered Libyan Govenment of National Accord

Arab leaders at a Summit in Amman Jordan are said to have given their absolute support to the Presidency Council (PC) of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA).

The Libya Herald also reported that the leaders would drop any links to the Tobruk-based eastern government of Abdullah al-Thinni associated with the House of Representatives (HoR). One wonders if there is any more than lip-service support being given to the GNA. Countries such as Egypt the UAE and Jordan have strong ties to the Al-Thinni government and have provided support for the commander of the eastern-based Libyan National Army commanded by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Libyan sources at the summit said that support for the PC, the GNA and the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) or Shkirat agreement will be included in the summit final statement. The final statement would also call on the countries different military groups to be joined in a single body. At present that seems a vain hope and quite unrealistic.

A news release from Saudi Arabia from its official news agency on Amman Declaration 1 said:On Libya, the statement stressed the need to achieve security and political stability in the North African Arab nation through a national reconciliation that is based on the "Skhirat" agreement in order to preserve the country's territorial unity and cohesion. It affirmed the Arab nation's support to the Libyan people in their efforts to defeat terrorist gangs and eradicate the threat posed by terrorism to Libya and its neighbors.There is no mention of supporting the PC or GNA specifically. However the Saudi agency could have filtered this out.

In an obvious reference to eastern commander Marshal Haftar, Qatar's emir said that there could not be another dictator in the country and Egypt, which supports Haftar said the same thing. Kuwait's emir called for the GNA to have full control over the whole of Libya. King Salman of Saudi Arabia appealed to Libyans to renounce violence, a narrative that the UN envoy to Libya Martin Kobler often relates. Egypt's president Abdel El-Sisi said that Libyans needed to support the LPA however he has been unable to convince Haftar, whom he supports, to vote confidence in the GNA as required by the LPA.

Faiez Serraj, head of the PC, thanked the Arab leaders for their support, and singled out Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia for attempts to solve the Libyan crisis. However, he also singled out the rival House of Representatives (HoR) for refusing to vote confidence in the GNA. He also criticized Marshal Haftar for war crimes in Benghazi saying: “We strongly condemn the recent violations in some areas of Libya with the exhumation of graves and the mutilation of the dead, especially those who claim to be members of the regular military forces.” Serraj, in contrast, praised the forces of Bunyan Marsous who freed the city of Sirte from the Islamic State.

Serraj said that he was committed to providing the basic needs of Libyans throughout the country and to protection of human rights. He said that those who thought there was a military solution to Libya's problems were wrong. He argued that there are only losers in a military fight, no winners. In the fight over the four ports of the Oil Crescent, Haftar seems to have been a clear winner. Serraj argued that a Libyan united army should be built under civilian command. He said that the HoR should stop abusing its powers and commit to democratic meeting sessions:"What made the Libyan crisis be prolonged is nothing more than the HoR's non-approval of the cabinet." Faiez also argued the the Petroleum Facilities Guard should all be united under one command: "I call on the Arab Summit to adopt the proposal I suggested about uniting the Petroleum Facilities Guard under one command with the National Oil Corporation in Tripoli being the boss and the supervisor. I call on the international community to take action in that regard and not only focus on illegal immigration and terrorism." Although many citizens in Tripoli might maintain otherwise, Serraj insisted that living conditions are normal in the city in spite of intermittent security violations.

The Jordanian government has requested that the GNA appoint a new ambassador to Jordan. At present, the embassy supports the HoR al-Thinni government. The staff told the Libya Herald that they completely oppose the PC. The staff refused to provide any logistical support for the PC delegation in the run-up to the Summit. Some predict there could be two embassies in Amman, one for the GNA and one for the HoR. Apparently, this situation already exists in Cairo. Jordan has supported Haftar, so this is a blow for him.

Arab League, African Union and UN Support Mission joint statement on Libya

On the 25th of October the League of Arab States, African Union and the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) held a meeting to discuss the situation in Libya.

The meeting also talked of ways for the three organizations to cooperate to "advance the political process and assist Libya in its democratic transition". It could be argued that there has been no democratic transition but a UN-supported Government of National Accord that has been manufactured by external forces as much as by Libyans and forced upon the Libyans. The government is not able to satisfy basic needs and has been unable to unify with the east which is becoming more and more under military control led by Field Marshal Haftar.

The statement consists of 15 separate points and the entire document can be found here. The meeting was with Ahmed Gheit, Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Jakaya Kikwete of African Union representative for Libya and Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) and head of UNSMIL.

In the third point the parties "reiterated their rejection of any foreign intervention in Libya". Presumably, the three do not object to foreign intervention that is requested. The problem is that foreign military intervention may be requested by one government such as the UN-supported GNA while rejected by their rival government of the House of Representatives (HoR). While the GNA welcomes and asked for US bombing support of the Sirte offensive, the HoR regards the bombing as unwarranted foreign intervention. There is already intervention of special forces from the U.K., U.S. and France, and Jordan and perhaps others. There is also intervention by Egypt and the UAE and support for Haftar that often violates the UN weapons ban on Libya.

The statement notes that a Troika of representatives from the three organizations would be set up to held enhance cooperation on Libya by the three bodies to help facilitate the Libyan Political Agreement. The envoys of the three organizations are to "conduct joint missions" that would encourage key Libyan stakeholders to advance the political process.

The document condemns the recent coup attempt saying the action hindered the political process. They called for swift de-escalation of the process and consolidation of security and rule of law in Tripoli. No recommendations are made as to how this can be done. There is no mention of the defection of the Presidential Guards, who are supposed to defend the GNA, to those attempting the coup.

There is no change from the long existing plan to have the HoR vote confidence in the GNA:The parties expressed their support for the PC and urged it to continue to assume its responsibilities, in an inclusive manner, as mandated by the LPA, and to present a revised cabinet of the Government of National Accord. They also expressed their support for the House of Representatives, as the legislative authority of the State, and urged it to continue to fulfill its responsibilities towards the LPA.

So far the HoR has exercised its responsibility twice by rejecting the GNA, the last time on August 22. The GNA had ten days to present a new cabinet, that is over two months ago. The HoR is functioning as a legislature but of the rival HoR government in Tobruk not that of the UN-recognized GNA.

The parties emphasize the need for cohesive and professional Libyan military and security forces "operating under a unified chain of command as mandated by the LPA". They do not mention that this makes the PC commander in chief for now. There is no mention of Haftar and the demand of him and his supporters that the LPA section on this issue, article 8, be deleted. Support was expressed for the fight against terrorism in Sirte but also in Benghazi and other areas. No specific mention is made of Derna which is under siege by Haftar.

The parties welcome efforts to restore oil production. No mention is made of Haftar's seizure of the oil ports. They support a unified oil company. They do not mention the unification agreement that has the headquarters moving to Benghazi and has the NOC reporting to the HoR. They stress as well the importance of a unified Central Bank to oversee funds collected. The group said they were ready to provide technical support to assist the PC in dealing with the Central Bank on issues of public financing and expenditures. The group wants to help mobilize and coordinate international support for Libya. There is a high-level meeting on Libya to be held in London soon. The final point of the communique is that the group is committed to having further meetings.

The group stick with the long-standing policy of regarding the LPA as the only way forward even though so far any attempt to pass it through the HoR has failed. There is no discussion of the problem of Haftar or any reason provided to think that a new cabinet will result in a vote of confidence in the GNA by the HoR. Given the length of time since the GNA was voted down there is not even any good reason to believe the PC can ever agree to a new cabinet. No deadlines are set. That is probably a better approach than setting a deadline and then breaching it continually.

Egypt and Russia strengthen ties

President el-Sisi came to power in Egypt after leading a coup that overthrew former president Morsi. He later was elected president. 

Throughout this period, Putin gave strong support for Sisi. Since then, relations between the two countries have strengthened.

In 2014 Russia and Egypt signed a $3.5 billion arms deal. Recently, the two countries signed a further military cooperation agreement that will see Egyptian officers and troops trained in Russian military academies. Putin also had a successful visit to Cairo back in February this year.

These moves by Egypt will provide the Egyptian government more leverage in dealing with the US which provides not only substantial military aid to Egypt but also trains many of its armed forces. In response to Egypt's horrible human rights record and suppression of opposition, the US had suspended some military aid. Egypt's response was to show the US that it could also find military aid elsewhere.

The US counter-move was announced by Obama just yesterday. He is renewing all suspended aid to Egypt. Egypt will now receive $1.3 billion in aid that was suspended after the overthrow of elected president Morsi and the subsequent crackdown on opposition. 

The situation in Egypt has not changed in terms of the crackdown but no doubt the Russian aid showed the US that it was not a good idea to try to use arms aid as leverage to improve the political situation within Egypt.

The announced reason for the change in policy is the typical one that can justify anything these days, the danger of the Islamic State. The problem is that Sisi supports General Haftar in Libya. Haftar is armed forces commander of the internationally-recognized Tobruk government. 

Haftar is battling not just the Islamic State but the competing government based in Tripoli which is also being attacked by the Islamic State. In other words, SIsi  can use his weapons to turn the tide in Haftar's battle to retake territory from the Tripoli government.

The US and other western countries have supported the UN peace process. Haftar has sabotaged the process whenever he could. With renewed arms supplied by Egypt ostensibly to help fight the Islamic State, Haftar can carry out his mission to defeat the forces of the competing government in Tripoli.

With the release of the suspended military aid to Egypt, Sisi will receive 12 F-16 fighter jets, replacements kits for 125 Abrams tanks, 20 Harpoon missiles, and the $1.3 billion that had been suspended.

Egypt's improving relationships with Russia have also caused some tension with Saudi Arabia although on many issues such as military action against Yemen the two agree completely. At the Arab League meeting in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el_Sheik, the two states however disagreed on the issue of Syria. Sisi urged a political solution to the conflict. Saudi Arabia insists that Assad must go, but el-Sisi stressed the need to battle terrorism and prevent the collapse of Syrian state institutions.

He is planning to host a conference of the Syrian opposition to form a unified political position on talks. This is the type of action that Russia would prefer as well. While Egypt does not outright give support for Assad, an Egyptian official told AP that the Assad  regime "must be part of the negotiations and the transitional period." The opposition members who would agree to this are no doubt few in number and any political agreement might have very little effect on the battles taking place in Syria. The tightly controlled press in Egypt and Saudi Arabia lambasted each other for their respective positions on Syria. 

Egypt is obviously trying to develop its own more independent foreign policy that is distressing not just to the US but US ally Saudi Arabia as well.

Sources:
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_306481/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=DjjE3NsH
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-egypt-military-agreement-2015-3
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/moscow-cairo-relations-sisi-putin-egypt-visit.html
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/31/obama-restores-us-military-aid-to-egypt
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-judge-putins-trip-to-egypt

Arab League may drop support for Indirect Peace Talks

Israel's ill timed decision to extend settlement construction just when indirect talks were to start was bound to cause problems. Perhaps Israel does not even want to talk. No one is sending rockets in their direction right now nor are there any or many other attacks so the Israelis may see no reason to negotiate. Things are going fine for them. The Gazans are safely in their jail surrounded by Israel--except for Egypt which co-operates with Israel in keeping Gazans penned up..

Arab League Considers Dropping Support For Talks
by THE ASSOCIATED PRESS


The Arab League recommended on Wednesday to withdraw its support for indirect talks between Palestinians and Israelis due to recent announcements of new settlement building in east Jerusalem.

The league's peace initiative committee's decision is only a recommendation and a final decision will have to be made by the foreign ministers of the Arab nations.

The March 3 decision by Arab foreign ministers to back the U.S.-sponsored indirect talks with Israel gave Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas the political cover he needed to restart peace negotiations after 14 month hiatus.

"In case of the failure to stop the Israeli measures immediately ... the committee concludes that the proposed talks are irrelevant," the committee's statement said, calling for a convening of foreign ministers to reconsider their support.

Israel's approval of 1,600 new housing units to be built in East Jerusalem shortly after Abbas agreed to resume talks has been widely condemned by the Palestinians and visiting Vice President Joe Biden.

The committee recommended linking the cessation of plans to build the settlement housing units to any resumption of talks.

No date was given for the proposed meeting of Arab foreign ministers.