CIA-linked General Hafter may sabotage any LIbyan peace agreement

UN envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, proposed a unity government composed of a three-person presidential council but it also would incorporate the House of Representatives of the Tobruk-based internationally recognized government.

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Leon said that his plan "gives the Tripoli government to have very important participation". Actually, the Tripoli government would give up any claim to legitimacy while recognizing that of the Tobruk government. Up to now the Tripoli government has claimed legitimacy and that view was supported by the Libyan Supreme Court. On November 6th last year, the Supreme Court ruled that June elections last year were unconstitutional and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives(HoR) should be dissolved. If the Tripoli government actually agrees to the UN proposal it would represent a huge concession. It is not clear how the main militia associated with the Tripoli government, Libya Dawn, would fit into this scenario.

Leon claimed: “My impression is that the majority of people from both sides view this as positive.” As often seems to be the case, Leon's optimism appears to have little relation to realty. Representatives of the Tobruk government rejected the proposal. Ahmed Wahidi a member of the HoR said: “We provided the UN representative our vision of the new government and its roles, and asked him to agree on this vision among the different parties, and he did not do that. This road map has been issued not by the negotiators chosen by the parliament . . . nor by the parliament itself. It was made by the UN.”

Leon ignores the fact that the Tobruk government and the commander of its armed forces bombed the Tripoli airport twice just before talks began. The last time the bombing delayed the departure of the Tripoli representatives causing the postponement of the talks for a day. Shortly before the last round of talks Haftar started an offensive south of Libya meant to take back the capital from the Tripoli government. Leon seems in a state of denial about Haftar's obvious contempt for the whole dialogue process: "Nowhere was this clearer than on Friday 20 March, when a military offensive was declared on the same day in which talks were due to resume in Morocco. The eastern-based, internationally recognised government of Abdullah al-Thinni and its “top military commander” Khalifa Haftar stated that the goal of the offensive was to recapture Tripoli."

Haftar dismissed the peace dialogue as talks with terrorists. He takes not just radical groups such as the Islamic State to be his enemies but all his opponents. Haftar will no doubt refuse any power sharing agreement that has any representation from Islamist groups but without such representation the Tripoli government will not be able to convince its own government to accept the unity government.

Haftar has the backing of the UAE and Egypt in his offensive against Islamists. While the US the UK and others may emit bleats of dissent from time to time and refuse to support lifting the arms embargo imposed on Libya until there is a unity government, this is unlikely to deter Haftar. Haftar has bombed his own people including civilian airports with impunity a number of times. If Gadaffi had done this there would cries for foreign intervention to protect the people. Yet, in spite of the Libyan Supreme Court claiming that the Tobruk government is unconstitutional and even though the commander of the Tobruk government had a warrant out for his arrest at one time for attempting a coup, the Tobruk government is still recognized internationally. To add to the irony the present prime minister of the Tobruk government was interim prime minister in the government that Haftar tried to overthrow but now that same al-Thinni has made Haftar commander of his forces.

To radical Islamists such as the Islamic State, it is crystal clear that there is no hope for dialogue and a peaceful solution. They want all Islamists to join them against both Haftar's forces and Libya Dawn which refuses to accept their radical ideology. While forces from Libya Dawn are fighting to regain control of the city of Sirte from the Islamic State, Haftar is busy attacking Libya Dawn rather than the Islamic State. Libya Dawn may very well decide its forces in Sirte need to be redeployed to defend Tripoli. The Islamic State will no doubt take advantage of this situation.

CIA-linked General Haftar seizes Benghazi branch of Libyan Central Bank

The UN yesterday condemned an attack on the office of the Libyan Central Bank in the city of Benghazi in the east of Libya. The attack appears to have been carried out by forces loyal to CIA-linked general Khalifa Haftar. The Libyan central bank has attempted to remain neutral in the conflict between militias and two rival government. The internationally recognized government is in Tobruk, led by Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni. The rival government that controls much of the western part of Libya is in the capital Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Omar al-Hasi appointed by the General National Council. The neutral role of the bank is crucial in maintaining whatever unity is left in the country: "It has continued to pay for fuel and food subsidies as well as the salaries of bureaucrats, doctors, teachers, local officials and millions of other public employees — often regardless of whether they showed up for work. By financing the budgets of the Interior and Defense Ministries, the same bank has even provided salaries and supplies for thousands of fighters battling one another from all sides of the struggle. But its continued distribution of paychecks and subsidies has helped communities and families across the country stay afloat despite the collapse of most other economic activity, even maintaining a semblance of order." Up until now both the headquarters in Tripoli and the branch in Benghazi have been under the control of the Tripoli government.

Benghazi was until recently controlled by the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries that includes the radical group Ansar al-Sharia. The leader of that group recently died of wounds incurred in battling against CIA-linked Khalifa Haftar's militia. Haftar's forces are responsible for the attack on the bank. A New York Times article put the challenge to the bank in frank terms:" Its most direct challenge has come from the Tobruk-Bayda government. It includes a recently elected Parliament, but it is under the de facto control of Gen. Khalifa Hifter, who defected from Colonel Qaddafi’s military and last year announced a military takeover pledging to rid the country of violent extremists."

The chairman of the National Bank, Sadik el-Kaber, a veteran banker has pleaded with both sides to respect the neutrality of the bank, but the Tobruk government has sought to replace him ever since last October so that they would be able to control the assets. El-Kaber has kept the bank's assets in Tripoli and has refused to resign. In spite of the fact that the Tobruk government is the recognized government El-Kaber still appears to have the support of at least some western governments including the US and the UK. Last month he flew to Washington where he met with US and UK diplomats and officials from the White House and Treasury Dept.The Tobruk-appointed manager also visited this month but was not accorded the same status according to a New York Times article.

The storming of the Benghazi bank has already resulted in the withdrawal of the Tripoli government from a second round of talks that should take place soon. While neither the government at Tripoli nor the main militia, Libya Dawn, took part in the first round, the militia had announced a ceasefire, and the government had agreed to attend the second round of talks if they were held in Libya and not Switzerland. A spokesperson for General Haftar, Mohamed Hejazi, confirmed that they had taken control of the bank and also now control of 80 percent of the Benghazi seaport. He refers to Haftar's forces as "the national army of Libya" and his opponents in Benghazi "terrorists". Benghazi had been ruled by the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries but Haftar launched an offensive to retake the city some time ago.

After the meetings in Geneva, the main Tripoli militia announced a cease fire. A couple of days later, the Tobruk government also announced a ceasefire. However, there was a caveat to the effect that terrorists would still be pursued. There has been no let up in the attacks by Haftar in Benghazi since he considers his opponents terrorists. However, Haftar considers all his Islamist opponents terrorists. Haftar appears to be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to concentrate on taking control of Benghazi while not having to worry about a battle on other fronts. It remains to be seen if Libya Dawn will allow him to continue in this manner. In any event, it would seem that Haftar has managed not only to sabotage planned peace talks but also to threaten to destroy a key remaining Libyan institution that has kept Libya running through all the conflict. Since the main branch is in Tripoli, his action may cause the Tripoli government to cease control there.

Egypt and no doubt many western countries support Haftar and his campaign against Islamists, but perhaps there may be considerable doubts about the wisdom of his actions. Haftar through his Operation Dignity and his earlier ineffective attempt to dissolve the General National Council last year was in large part responsible for the present conflict. Operation Dignity was launched in May of last year with an attack on two Islamist militia bases in Benghazi and then an attack on the parliament which was ransacked and burned. Below is a video about the start of Operation Dignity: The present prime minister of the Tobruk government, Abdullah al-Thinni was then prime minister of the GNC government. He declared Haftar's action illegal and a coup attempt. Now the same Abdullah Al-Thinni is prime minister of the Tobruk government. On November 6, last year the Libyan Supreme Court ruled that the elections in June of last year were unconstitutional and that the Tobruk House of Representatives should be dissolved. Al-Thinni and the Tobruk government rejected the ruling. The international community has studiously ignored it. This is one more key Libyan institution simply ignored by the Tobruk government.

Al Thinni applauded the court when it decided that a rival prime minister appointed by the GNC by Islamists was ruled not to have been duly appointed leaving al-Thinni as the caretaker prime minister. The Islamist-supported candidate in that case accepted the ruling.

A commander of Haftar's forces, Col. Farraj al-Barasi. told Reuters that the forces were forming a committee to decide what to do with the money from the bank: “We’ve moved out the technical equipment.The cash is still in the safes.” This strikes me as bizarre. What government would allow their armed forces to make such a decision. Yet the Tobruk government expresses full confidence in Haftar: "The commander of the Libyan National Army, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, is operating on the authority of the internationally recognized Libyan government based out of Tobruk, Libyan authorities confirmed this week. " If that is true, then the UN and the international community should be taking action against that government. Not only are they sabotaging a cease fire but they are also sabotaging peace talks, and exacerbating the situation by seizing the assets of the Libyan Central Bank whose neutrality has been crucial to what unity and stability still exists in Libya.

While the UN has threatened sanctions against any party that blocks the transition to democracy in Libya it is unlikely any action will be taken against the Tobruk government or Haftar. Haftar is the champion of the fight against terrorism as is his mentor next door in Egypt, Prime Minister el-Sisi. Rather than being subject to sanctions he is likely to receive even more support. This is a recipe for more civil war not peace.

Two main parties in conflict agree to Libya ceasefire

The internationally-recognized Tobruk government announced a ceasefire as of midnight Sunday. The rival faction Libya Dawn associated with the Tripoli government had announced a truce two days before.

Peace talks are set to resume next week again in Geneva. Earlier talks had taken place without the participation of representatives from the Tripoli government but in spite of that the Libya Dawn militia called a truce shortly after the talks. The talks were able to map out a route to a unity government, that would rule until a new constitution is created, accepted and then new elections held. Both sides accept the committee that is drafting the new constitution. The announcement by the Tobruk government may mean little as the army said that it would continue to pursue "terrorists" but CIA-linked Khalifa Haftar whose former militia is the main part of the Libyan Army considers all Islamists who oppose him "terrorists".

 

 Ansar al-Sharia is considered a terrorist organization in the west but is part and parcel of the Shura Council of Revolutionaries who rule the parts of Benghazi controlled by the opposition. If Khalifa Haftar, whose Operation Dignity begun last May started the present conflict, continues to fight against Islamist militias in Benghazi on the grounds they are terrorists, the rest of the Shura Council and perhaps Libya Dawn as well will join in their defense. Perhaps there is an attempt being made to drive a wedge between opponents of the government with the more radical opponents being singled out as "terrorists". This could easily ruin a fragile truce. 

 

 The rival government, the General National Congress(GNC) has added as a condition for attending the Geneva talks scheduled for next week, that they be held in Libya. The GNC said that they are willing to negotiate. Omar Hmeidan, spokesperson for the GNC said that "Talks must be in Ghat, not in Geneva". A GNC member said that 100 of 110 who had attended the GNC meeting Sunday had agreed to the condition. Almost three hundred people have been killed in the last three months as pro-government forces fight with those allied to the Tripoli government according to medical staff in Benghazi, Libya's second largest city. General Haftar has been attempting to wrest control of the city from the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.  

 

Jason Pack of Libya-Anlaysis. com told Al Jazeera that the ceasefire was only moderately promising noting that while Fajr Libya had agreed to the truce many other militia groups had not and added: "We also do not have both sides of the political leadership of Tripoli represented in Geneva." The army also said that it would be monitoring front lines "to prevent any change in front lines or transportation of weapons and ammunition". Does this include the army itself transporting weapons and ammunition? Probably not. This provision could enable the army to prepare for an offensive in selected areas while denying the other side the ability to prepare to defend itself adequately. 

 

 The Al Jazeera article, along with other news outlets, fails to point out relevant facts important to understanding the context. There is no mention of the Libyan Supreme Court decision that the Tobruk government should be dissolved and that the June elections last year were unconstitutional. There is no mention of the background of the crisis in which as part of Operation Dignity Haftar-allied militia burned the parliament. There is no mention that the present Prime Minister was then Abdullah al-Thinni, called the move illegal and an attempted coup. There was an arrest warrant out for Haftar. Now Haftar is in effect heading the charge against opponents of the government with the blessing of this same al-Thinni now prime minister of the Tobruk government. Of course the Tobruk government rejected the Supreme Court Decision saying that it was made under duress. Al-Thinni applauded the same Supreme Court when it decided against the validity of the appointment of an Islamist-supported prime minister, and left Al-Thinni himself as prime minister. The Islamists accepted the decision.

 

 The situation in Libya may appear much brighter than it seems. It remains to be seen if the parties really want peace or if they are just jockeying to give strength and international legitimacy to their side. The anti-government forces may be willing to join with their opponents in trying to control the most radical jihadist militias. We will see.

New UN sponsored peace talks on Libya scheduled for January 6

Peace talks held under UN auspices in September in Ghadames made virtually no progress. There are now two rival governments supported by rival military forces. The new talks are scheduled for January 6.

The UN envoy to Libya, Bernadino Leon, has reported to the UN Security Council that the two main rival groups have agreed to a road map designed to dampen the conflict that has split the country into warring factions and governments. The Tripoli government has as prime minister, Omar al-Hassi, while the internationally recognized government that was elected in June is located in the far east in the city of Tobruk with the prime minister, Abdullah al-Thinni. The militia of CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar is now merged with the Libyan armed forces and the Tobruk government has made him head of the armed forces. On November 6th the Libyan Supreme Court declared that the June elections were unconstitutional and that the Tobruk government should be dissolved. The Tobruk government rejected the ruling and the international community shows no sign that it is paying any attention to it either.

However, the UN has for the first time invited representatives of the Tripoli government to the peace talks. In some recent statements the UN speaks of parties to the conflict and does not speak specifically of the Libyan government. Chadian ambassador to the UN, Mahamat Cherif, told reporters that the Council urged both parties to accept an immediate cease-fire. The Council was also concerned about the flow of arms into the country. As usual there was no mention of who was supplying arms to which parties. So far neither party has paid any attention to the UN demand for a cease fire as a condition for the success of any dialogue. The Al-Thinni government gave Haftar the green light to retake Benghazi and Tripoli. There have been several bombings of Tripoli including the one functioning airport.

Cherif said that the roadmap contained three points but did not give details. However he did say that one aspect was "a national unity government which would be composed of representatives from the two camps". A representative in the Tobruk House of Representatives, Tarek al-Garoushi said that Leon wants a coalition government to be formed and a second round of peace talks outside of Libya:"Leon arrived in Tobruk on Monday where he met with parliament speaker Aguilah Saleh and the rest of the assembly's leadership.At the meeting, Leon made several suggestions, including the formation of a coalition government that would include the country's warring factions to guarantee a resolution to the crisis. Leon also proposed holding a second round of negotiations outside Libya." The two sides could not agree on a site to meet inside of Libya.

 The UN Support MIssion (UNSMIL) reported that in the recent violence hundreds of people have been killed including 450 in Benghazi alone. There have been 120,000 displaced from the west of the country and 90,00 more from the city of Benghazi. The city had been taken over by Islamist-linked militias but Haftar has recaptured at least part of the city recently. The UN also claims that Libya is facing acute shortages of both food and medicines. A detailed UN report can be found here.Envoy Leon said: “All those suffering in this violence deserve to live in safety with their rights fully protected. I appeal to all Libyan political and military leaders to engage, as a matter of urgency, in a genuine political dialogue to take Libya out of the current crisis." By January 7th we should know whether the UN has had any success this time in promoting dialogue and peace in Libya.

Turkish envoy to Libya urges elections as a way out of Libyan crisis

Emrullah Isler, the Turkish Special Envoy for Libya claims the political crisis in Libya can be overcome by holding general elections.

At present there are two rival governments, one in Tobruk, that is internationally recognized, the House of Representatives, consisting of representatives elected in elections last June. Some of those elected have not attended and do not recognize the legitimacy of the Tobruk government. The UN through its envoy Bernardino Leon held talks with those elected but boycotting the parliament in order to reach some type of political settlement. However, the alternative government formed in Tripoli by a bloc of Islamist and other militias who control Tripoli and part of Benghazi were not involved in the dialogue nor were the rival Islamist-led militias and those led by CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar. The General National Congress was recalled by the Islamist bloc and appointed a rival prime minister Omar al-Hassi, who then formed an alternative government. The situation was complicated when the Libyan Supreme Court ruled on November 6 , that the June elections were unconstitutional and that the Tobruk parliament should be dissolved. The Tobruk government rejected the ruling immediately. The UN claims to be studying the decision. The decision has led the UN to begin a dialogue with figures associated with the Tripoli government, although the language used by the UN still refers to Abdullah Al-Thinni of the Tobruk government as the Libyan "prime minister," even more than a week after the Supreme Court decision. The recommendation by the Turkish envoy had already been suggested by prime minister Omar al-Hassi of the Tripoli government and a spokesperson for that government suggested that there should be a referendum on a new constitution that is being drafted and then general elections. Both sides appear to accept the committee drafting the constitution, so this could be a basis for a partial solution. However, there also needs to be a transitional government of some sort up until the referendum and elections. Jason Pack, suggests that there should be a Unity Government composed of representatives from the competing groups.So far the Tobruk government has not shown any interest in the suggestion that there should be elections. They claim they are the legitimate government, internationally recognized and want it to stay that way even though they hold sway in only a few areas of Libya. The UN has achieved a break-through of sorts as the UN's envoy Leon was able to get the Islamist militias and General Haftar's forces to agree to a 12 hour humanitarian truce. The truce will allow the Red Crescent to evacuate citizens from the battle areas and also retrieve bodies of those killed. Haftar launched an offensive with the blessing and support of the Tobruk government to try to retake Benghazi. He has retaken some areas but not others, with many casualties. The truce is significant in that the UN was able to convince the Tobruk government, Haftar and the Islamist militias to cease fighting. As spokesperson for the UN mission Samir Gattas said that "this and other confidence-building measures would certainly help in creating an atmosphere conducive for dialogue." Perhaps the UN should be pushing the Tobruk government and Haftar towards accepting elections after a referendum on the new constitution. The UN should make it clear that they will not simply accept the legitimacy of the Tobruk government but demand a political settlement that avoids the issue of which government is legitimate entirely. In spite of the conflicts between different militias in different parts of the country most of the country manages to function. Even if the warring factions are unable to agree on a unity government as recommended by Pack, they may be able to work out some practical sharing of powers that will allow a period of relative peace until a referendum on a new constitution and then elections, or alternatively there could be elections agreed upon even before a referendum on a new constitution. The truce in Benghazi provides at least a flicker of hope since the legitimate government sanctioned Haftar's offensive. By agreeing to a truce, the Tobruk government is recognizing the Islamist Shura Council militia as at least a force that can be part of negotiations and also it for once has paid heed to the UN demand that fighting must stop as a condition for dialogue to work. Don't expect the mainstream media to say much about all this. What is important for them is that jihadists in the city of Derna have pledged loyalty to the Islamic State. This is true enough but of little significance. Radical jihadists typically ally themselves with the most prominent radical jihadist group, which is no longer Al Qaeda but the Islamic State. Derna has been under control of radical jihadists for ages. Yet CNN makes a big deal of the situation which really has not changed at all. See the appended video. There are articles on the issue in Time, , Washington Times, and UPI, just for starters. What is important is the radical Islamist threat narrative. This will hardly be conducive to working out any political settlement between the Islamist bloc and Haftar's militias. If what counts is the war on terror, this emphasis could result in a bigger mess in Libya through foreign intervention directed first at the Islamic State but no doubt would soon be widened to attack any Islamists who do not recognize the Tobruk government

Libyan Supreme Court declares recent elections and new government unconstitutional

As if things could not become even more unsettled in Libya, the Libyan Supreme Court has just announced that the internationally recognized and UN-backed government is dissolved and the June elections declared illegitimate.

The elected government moved to the eastern city of Tobruk. It was supposed to convene in Benghazi in August but Benghazi was by then under the control of a umbrella group of Islamist-oriented militias and so was moved to a luxury hotel and a Greek ferry in Tobruk, where the CIA-linked General Haftar could protect them. After all, it would not do to have the new parliament supposedly dominated by anti-Islamists to be attacked and burned, as had happened to the former parliament — which was attacked by Haftar's allies the Zintan brigades as part of his Operation Dignity. A number of Islamists who were elected boycotted the new parliament. A coalition of Islamists have now taken control not only of Benghazi but also Tripoli. They reconvened the General National Council and appointed their own prime minister who then formed a competing government to that in Tobruk.
The ruling came after a member of the Tripoli parliament asked the Supreme Court to rule on the constitutionality of the vote on June 25th in Libya. The vote led to the creation of a government by Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni. He had also been prime minister when the parliament was stormed and burned by allies of General Haftar. At the time he noted that there was a warrant out for Haftar's arrest and he claimed that the attack was illegal and an attempted coup. Now Al-Thinni's government supports Haftar and his Operation Dignity and supposedly Haftar's militia are just part of the Libyan armed forces.
 LANA news agency reported that "The Constitutional Circuit in the Supreme Court has ruled on Thursday to accept the appeal concerning the illegality of developments leading to the elections,. Al Jazeera reporter Mahmoud Abdul-Wahed said that this court ruling means that the present al-Thinni government is unconstitutional. The UN is claiming that it will closely study the decision and also talk with "Libyan stakeholders across the political spectrum, and with international partners."
The UN also says that is will continue to work with all parties to help Libya overcome the present political and security crisis. So far the UN position is that it will talk to everyone except those who count, the two competing groups of militias and the alternative government in Tripoli. Not surprisingly, the talks so far seem to have achieved little or nothing. The Supreme Court decision may have a positive effect in that now the UN can claim that it should talk to figures in the rival government. While the legislature in Tobruk has called an emergency meeting to discuss the verdict, one can expect that it will be dismissed out of hand. Issam al-Jehani, a Tobruk-based parliamentarian said on Facebook: "Lawmakers will not recognise a verdict decided under the gun,"
The prime minister of the rival government Omar al-Hassi called for new elections in a recent interview saying: "We need new elections, This parliament is no longer accepted in Libya. It has lost its legitimacy. We need new elections, The poll must take place under the supervision of (elected) local councils." Al-Hassi claims to be an independent. He describes the present conflict as between "enemies of the revolution" against "revolutionaries". Haftar describes his opponents as Islamist terrorists.
 Al-Hassi's proposals do provide a possible political way out of the crisis, although one fraught with difficulties. It would require Haftar's militias, now the Libyan army, and his Islamist militia foes to agree to a ceasefire, an unlikely scenario. It would require too that the militia leaders accept the results of the political process. In any event elections are unlikely. The more likely scenario is that important power brokers such as Egypt and the UAE with the tacit support of the US and its allies will support the Al-Thinni government in Tobruk and provide aid and training for the Libyan army which is now in effect just an add-on to Haftar's militias. The Libyan situation narrative will be about the war on terror and combating militant jihadists such as those in Anshar al-Sharia the group alleged to be behind that attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. Haftar will be touted as a military leader who can do for Libya what President el-Sisi did for Egypt, turn it into a repressive regime just as bad if not worse than that of Mubarak but having the support of the west and allies such as Saudi Arabia by jailing members of unapproved Islamist groups who will be designated terrorists.
 As shown on the appended video an earlier decision by the Supreme Court that the election of an Islamist-supported prime minister was illegitimate was accepted by the Islamists and the person who lost out in the decision. I doubt that the same acceptance will now come from the government of Al-Thinni in Tobruk.