Friday, November 21, 2014
Turkish envoy to Libya urges elections as a way out of Libyan crisis
Emrullah Isler, the Turkish Special Envoy for
Libya claims the political crisis in Libya can be overcome by holding
general elections.
At present there are two rival governments, one in
Tobruk, that is internationally recognized, the House of
Representatives, consisting of representatives elected in elections last
June. Some of those elected have not attended and do not recognize the
legitimacy of the Tobruk government. The UN through its envoy Bernardino
Leon held talks with those elected but boycotting the parliament in
order to reach some type of political settlement. However, the
alternative government formed in Tripoli by a bloc of Islamist and other
militias who control Tripoli and part of Benghazi were not involved in
the dialogue nor were the rival Islamist-led militias and those led by
CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar.
The General National Congress was recalled by the Islamist bloc and
appointed a rival prime minister Omar al-Hassi, who then formed an
alternative government. The situation was complicated when the Libyan Supreme Court ruled on November 6 , that the June elections were unconstitutional and that the Tobruk parliament should be dissolved. The Tobruk government rejected the ruling immediately. The UN claims to be studying the decision.
The decision has led the UN to begin a dialogue with
figures associated with the Tripoli government, although the language
used by the UN still refers to Abdullah Al-Thinni of the Tobruk
government as the Libyan "prime minister," even more than a week after
the Supreme Court decision.
The recommendation by the Turkish envoy had already been suggested
by prime minister Omar al-Hassi of the Tripoli government and a
spokesperson for that government suggested that there should be a
referendum on a new constitution that is being drafted and then general
elections. Both sides appear to accept the committee drafting the
constitution, so this could be a basis for a partial solution. However,
there also needs to be a transitional government of some sort up until
the referendum and elections. Jason Pack, suggests
that there should be a Unity Government composed of representatives
from the competing groups.So far the Tobruk government has not shown any
interest in the suggestion that there should be elections. They claim
they are the legitimate government, internationally recognized and want
it to stay that way even though they hold sway in only a few areas of
Libya.
The UN has
achieved a break-through of sorts as the UN's envoy Leon was able to
get the Islamist militias and General Haftar's forces to agree to a 12
hour humanitarian truce. The truce will allow the Red Crescent to
evacuate citizens from the battle areas and also retrieve bodies of
those killed. Haftar launched an offensive with the blessing and support
of the Tobruk government to try to retake Benghazi. He has retaken some
areas but not others, with many casualties. The truce is significant in
that the UN was able to convince the Tobruk government, Haftar and the
Islamist militias to cease fighting. As spokesperson for the UN mission
Samir Gattas said that "this and other confidence-building measures
would certainly help in creating an atmosphere conducive for dialogue."
Perhaps the UN should be pushing the Tobruk government and Haftar
towards accepting elections after a referendum on the new constitution.
The UN should make it clear that they will not simply accept the
legitimacy of the Tobruk government but demand a political settlement
that avoids the issue of which government is legitimate entirely. In
spite of the conflicts between different militias in different parts of
the country most of the country manages to function. Even if the warring
factions are unable to agree on a unity government as recommended by
Pack, they may be able to work out some practical sharing of powers that
will allow a period of relative peace until a referendum on a new
constitution and then elections, or alternatively there could be
elections agreed upon even before a referendum on a new constitution.
The truce in Benghazi provides at least a flicker of hope since the
legitimate government sanctioned Haftar's offensive. By agreeing to a
truce, the Tobruk government is recognizing the Islamist Shura Council
militia as at least a force that can be part of negotiations and also it
for once has paid heed to the UN demand that fighting must stop as a
condition for dialogue to work.
Don't expect the mainstream media to say much about all this. What is
important for them is that jihadists in the city of Derna have pledged
loyalty to the Islamic State. This is true enough but of little
significance. Radical jihadists typically ally themselves with the most
prominent radical jihadist group, which is no longer Al Qaeda but the
Islamic State. Derna has been under control of radical jihadists for
ages. Yet CNN makes a big deal of the situation which really has not
changed at all. See the appended video. There are articles on the issue
in Time, , Washington Times, and UPI,
just for starters. What is important is the radical Islamist threat
narrative. This will hardly be conducive to working out any political
settlement between the Islamist bloc and Haftar's militias. If what
counts is the war on terror, this emphasis could result in a bigger mess
in Libya through foreign intervention directed first at the Islamic
State but no doubt would soon be widened to attack any Islamists who do
not recognize the Tobruk government
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