Defeat of the Islamic State in Syria will not be end of conflict

While the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces are confronting the Islamic State in eastern Syria and beginning to enter the strategic city of Raqqa, the Syrian Army has been taking control of positions in their rear further west.

Around the end of May , the Syrian Army captured almost 100 square kilometers in the desert sparsely populated Badia area — a huge region that stretches to the southern border of Syria with Jordan and Iraq. Assad forces took over the country's largest phosphate mine and the strategic highway from the ancient city of Palmyra to Damascus. Both Assad forces and rebels, some supported by the U.S., are racing to gain control of territory as the Islamic State is forced to retreat.

The U.S. has insisted on focusing on the defeat of the Islamic State. However, the U.S. is now making it clear that it will also defend the rebels it supports from Assad attacks. At the time of the Assad advance, Al-Baraa Fares, a spokesperson for Free Syrian Army (FSA) group Mitaghawir al-Thawra (MAT), said: “The coalition is a partner of ours in the war against Daesh [the Islamic State], but when it comes to fighting the regime and its foreign militias, [the coalition] is not our partner. The role of the international coalition is to train members of MAT and to provide logistical support, weapons, ammunition and all that is needed to eliminate the terrorist Daesh." However. the U.S. has now made it clear that it will defend rebels that it supports from attacks by Assad forces.

This appears to be a new and dangerous emphasis that will inevitably give rise to new clashes and more involvement by the U.S. in the Syria war. The Assad regime is not likely to give up attacking rebels who are enemies of the Assad regime and will attack them when they get a chance. The U.S. has already shot down an Assad jet because it was said to be dropping bombs close to rebels supported by the U.S. The Assad regime said that it was on a mission against the Islamic State. Russians claim that the hotline was not used to talk to them before the plane was downed. As a result of the incident, Russia has declared that coalition planes flying west of the Euphrates will be considered targets, a clear escalation of tensions between Russia and the U.S.-led coalition.

The U.S. has a base in the Badia numbering about 100 special forces based in a small military outpost near the Tanf border crossing between Syria and Iraq. The base trains fighters of vetted forces to fight against the Islamic State. However the Free Syrian Army sees things differently and adopted a campaign titled "Badia Volcano" a campaign to "cleanse the Badia of Iranian and foreign militia". These militias are of course Assad allies. No doubt the groups involved in the campaign will demand U.S. support as they battle against pro-Assad Hezbollah and Iranian forces. The Iranians have upped their involvement in Syria by launching missile attacks on the eastern Syrian city of Deir rl-Zour. It was said to be in retaliation for an earlier attack in Iran on the parliament claimed by the Islamic State that killed at least 18 people. Within the last 12 days the U.S. has shot down two Iranian drones near the outpost of al-Tanf.

The U.S. maintains a defensive area around that Tanf base with a radius of 55km within which it will not permit the regime or its allied forces to enter. Earlier in the month, coalition warplanes attacked a group of tanks. armored vehicles and others who were advancing towards the outpost. In other words, the U.S.-led coalition has defined a zone that it occupies as off limits to the country to which it belongs. It can hardly expect to avoid further clashes. Yet a CENTCOM spokesperson said: “The continued armed and hostile presence of forces inside the de-confliction zone is unacceptable and threatening to Coalition forces. Coalition forces are prepared to defend themselves if pro-regime forces refuse to vacate the de-confliction zone.” The regime may be trying to re-establish trade links between Iraq and parts of Syria or even for troops and supplies to come from Iran.

The increased conflict appears to be confined to areas where regime forces, rebels and the Islamic State are in close contact. It may be that as the Islamic State loses more and more territories conflict could arise between forces loyal to Assad and the Syrian Democratic Forces supported by the U.S. In some areas of the country, there is rebuilding and cessation of hostilities as the enclosed video shows.

US-supported mostly Kurdish forces enter Syrian city of Raqqa

(June 6)The US-backed Syrian Democratic(SDF) forces have entered into the city of Raqqa in Syria long held by the Islamic State(IS). The offensive is the conclusion of seven months of planning with air support from the US-led coalition.

The offensive has also seen the SDF a multi-ethnic group but dominated by the Kurdish YPG (People's Protection Units) , receive support from US military advisers and weapons deliveries. Today, June 6, the SDF broke into the east edge of the city for the first time and are fighting street battles inside the city.

SDF commander Rojda Felat said:"Our forces entered the city of Raqqa from the eastern district of Al-Meshleb. They are fighting street battles inside Raqqa now, and we have experience in urban warfare." There were also reports of fierce clashes in the northern outskirts of the city as well according to Felat. Raqqa is on the Euphrates river. The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights also reported that the SDF had already seized a number of positions inside the city.

Head of the Observatory Abdel Rahman claimed: "They have taken control of a checkpoint in Al-Meshleb, as well as a number of buildings. The advance came after heavy air strikes by the US-led coalition." Access routes from the city to the west, north, and east have been cut off. SDF spokesperson Talai Sello said: "We declare today the start of the great battle to liberate the city of Raqqa, the so-called capital of terrorism and terrorists. With the international coalition's warplanes and the state-of-the-art weapons they provided to us, we will seize Raqqa from Daesh," Sello told AFP, using an Arabic acronym for IS. With the international coalition's warplanes and the state-of-the-art weapons they provided to us, we will seize Raqqa from Daesh'"

The coalition air strikes on Raqqa have taken a toll on civilians. Yesterday, the Observatory claimed an air strike had struck and killed 21 civilians as they fled the city across the Euphrates on a dinghy. However Rahman pointed out the same route was being used by fleeing IS fighters. It is estimated that there are about half a million civilians in Raqqa about 80,000 displaced from other areas. Thousands have managed to flee to areas held by the SDF.

The SDF operation to capture Raqqa is called the Wrath of Euphrates. The International Coalition for Operation Inherent Resolve announced: "​The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their Syrian Arab Coalition partners launched the offensive to unseat ISIS [Daesh in Arabic] from its so-called 'capital' Raqqa in northern Syria." Raqqa was captured by the IS back in January of 2014. The battle to retake it could be long and bloody but would represent a major step forward in defeating the IS in Syria. The US Department of Defense also announced the offensive on its website: “The offensive would deliver a decisive blow to the idea of ISIS as a physical caliphate." The offensive is also covered in another recent Digital Journal article.

Turkey had hoped to be part of the offensive but is not. Turkish president Erdogan is angry that the US continues to support and arm the YPG whom he regards as a terrorist group. He wants Kurdish troops to remain east of the Euphrates river.

Syrian rebels take vast desert area from the Islamic State

Large areas of southern Syria near the Jordanian border have been seized by Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups from the Islamic State (IS)

The advances will help prevent IS fighters from regrouping near Damascus and the Jordanian border as they face defeats in the city of Raqqa. Some also may be leaving Iraq as they lose Mosul as well. Western intelligence sources worry that fleeing IS militants would be able to find a safe haven in the vast desert area along the Jordanian border with Syria. The rebels in the area are receiving military aid that is funneled through Jordan and overseen by the CIA. The gains are the culmination of an operation that began last December as described in this article.

Talas al Salameh, commander of the largest of the FSA groups said: "Extensive areas have fallen into our hands. (Islamic State) has been pushed out of them in heavy clashes in 16 days of battles.m (Islamic State) had cut roads and were in control and had been positioned in former Syrian army bases with a strong presence and with heavy armor. We cut links between their areas and as a result they began to retreat." The Islamic State fighters are coming under increasing pressure as they face campaigns by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Front near Raqqa as well as the Russian-backed Syrian army and Turkish-backed FSA groups.

Salameh said that the IS had withdrawn hundreds of troops from areas through which the FSA advanced. He suggested that they were redeploying to help defend Raqqa and Deir al-Zor province to the east. The area captured is sparsely populated all the way from about 50 kilometers from Damascus to the borders with Iraq and Jordan a desert area known as the Badia. Salameh said that if Raqqa and Mosul fell the IS would have been retreating to the area they had just captured. Said Seif an official with another FSA faction claimed that 250 square kilometers (96 square miles) had been taken in the Badia alone. He said that at least 117 of his fighters had been killed over the last few months from assaults and ambushes by the IS militants.

The areas taken are some of the longest held IS positions in southern Syria. The current operation is called "We Have Saddled Up to Cleanse the Desert". Recent operations had been coordinated with US-led coalition forces and had air support. A military source said IS fighers were able to leave through the vast, sparsely populated area in individual cars and motorcycles.

Raqqa may become part of the Kurdish autonomous area of Syria when liberated

The northern city of Raqqa now occupied by the Islamic State (IS) is expected to become part of a decentralized Kurdish-run system of government, once it is liberated, according to a leading Kurdish politician.

Raqqa, on the Euphrates is the Islamic State's main urban base left in Syria but is under siege by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) an alliance of Kurds with some Arabs. The YPG a Syrian Kurdish militia already controls considerable territory in northern Syria and Kurdish groups are working to establish a form of decentralized government in Kurdish-controlled areas. Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist group and the development is causing alarm in Turkey. Turkey is angry that the US is supporting the Kurds. They consider the YPG simply an extension of Kurdish groups they are fighting within Turkey..

Saleh Muslim co-chair of the Syrian Kurdish PYD party said although it would be up to the people of Raqqa what the future of the city should be once it is liberated from the IS, he thought the city would join the "democratic federal' system. Muslim said in a telephone interview:"We expect (this) because our project is for all Syria ... and Raqqa can be part of it. Our only concern is that the people of Raqqa are the ones who take the decision on everything." The Kurdish system was never negotiated with the Assad regime. The US is backing Kurdish forces in the area. Turkey objects to having a de facto Kurdish government in northern Syria and will be even angrier if the US helps the Kurds extend the territory under their control. The Turks have already invaded part of northern Syria west of the Euphrates clearing the Islamic State from the border area. They insist that Kurds should stay east of the Euphrates.

The Kurds may have trouble convincing locals that they should join the Kurdish federated system: " But while the YPG had an alliance with some local Raqqa resistance forces aimed at expelling ISIS at the start of the military offensive, many of those opposition factions have cut ties with the Kurds, complaining that the YPG is trying to dictate terms to them. That might hurt their attempt at selling Raqqa on joining the autonomous region, though they may not be given a choice at any rate. " Meanwhile fighting has resumed at the Tabqa dam about 25 miles upstream even though the IS has put out dire warnings that the dam is in danger of collapse. US forces dismiss the warnings. It is always possible that the IS could decide to sabotage the dam.

Turkish forces kill 48 Islamic State fighters in Syrian town of al-Bab

More than four months ago, Turkish air and ground forces launched Operation Euphrates on behalf of Syrian rebels to drive Islamic State(IS) or ISIS forces from the Turkish border.

In a statement on Monday, Turkey's armed forces announced that they had killed 48 militants on Sunday. Turkish warplanes claimed to have destroyed 25 buildings and shelters used by IS. During recent weeks, the Turks have been besieging the strategic town of al-Bab. Al-Bab is the last major town held by IS in Aleppo province. Several times a week Turkey has been issuing reports claiming that dozens of IS fighters had been killed. The reports leave open the question as to exactly how many IS fighters remain in the town of about 60,000. The reports do not usually mention civilian casualties and rarely report their own casualties or those of rebels. However, on the enclosed video the Turks do report on civilian casualties.

Turkey has been asking for increased U.S. air support to help it out. The Pentagon wants to avoid increasing tensions with Turkey as it is quite dependent on the Incirlik air base for its operations in Syria. The Pentagon began air flights over the city but so far has not launched any air attacks. Already Russian airstrikes have supported the offensive in the surrounding area. The U.S. is now carrying out what it calls "aerial intelligence surveillance" in the area to help the Turkish forces. Earlier, the U.S. sent one plane over the city and called it a "show of force". The low level of support given by the U.S. compared to Russia is a sore spot for Turkey.

The Turks with their rebel allies have now taken most of the territory west of the Euphrates formerly held by the Islamic State. The territory has been handed over to a coalition of rebel forces. The U.S. is worried that the Turks will confront Kurdish YPG forces that the U.S. supports. Turkish officials say they will move on to take Manbij, a city along the Euphrates under control of the YPG.

In spite of the fact that the U.S. is now mounting a number of aerial surveillance flights, officials are said to worry about ensuring that they do not clash with Turkish or Russian flights. A defense official said: “Flying anywhere in Syria is complicated. Flying up in that area where everyone seems to be flying would require some work. I wouldn’t say we aren’t worried about it.”

The U.S. is considering sending direct weapons shipments to Kurdish YPG forces advancing on Raqqa, the IS de facto capital. The Turks consider the group a terrorist organization and are opposed to any such move. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that ceasing to cooperate with the YPG was one of two main expectations Turkey had of the United States. The other was that the U.S. would extradite Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the US, to Turkey where he would face charges that the orchestrated the recent coup attempt.

The Turkish President Recep Erdogan said that he thought that U.S.-Turkish relations would gain momentum once Trump was inaugurated on January 20. Trump's designated national security adviser Michael Flynn wrote an op-ed that the U.S. should agree to extradite Gulen and stop criticism of Turkey whom he considered a key ally. As Turkey's relations with Russia improve, under Trump Turkish relations with the United States may also show some improvement.

Trump may end US support for "moderate" rebels in Syria

(Nov. 12) In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, President-elect Donald Trump suggested that he was likely to end the U.S. policy of supporting "moderate" rebel groups.

He claimed that the U.S. did not really know who the moderate rebels were and that the U.S. should concentrate on defeating the Islamic State (IS).

Trump said in the interview:“I’ve had an opposite view of many people regarding Syria. My attitude was you’re fighting Syria, Syria is fighting ISIS, and you have to get rid of ISIS. Russia is now totally aligned with Syria, and now you have Iran, which is becoming powerful, because of us, is aligned with Syria. … Now we’re backing rebels against Syria, and we have no idea who these people are.”Trump also expressed concern that if the U.S. attacked the Assad regime it would end up fighting not only Syria but Russia as well.

In the past, Trump has suggested that the defeat of Assad could actually lead to something worse in the aftermath assuming it did not result in a war with Russia. Within the U.S. administration there has been an ongoing problem with the Pentagon wanting to fight the Islamic State (IS) while the CIA and State Department wants to shift the focus toward regime change. The CIA is heavily involved in providing arms and funding for the rebels. Earlier CIA plans for creating new forces and arming them have failed, often disastrously. Often arms end up in the hands of Al-Qaeda-linked or IS forces.

The U.S. is supporting about 30,000 Syrian-Kurd plus some Syrian-Arab fighters against the IS. They are at present advancing on the IS "capital" in Syria Raqqa. There are approximately 300 U.S. Special Operations forces assisting these fighters. It is not this operation but the CIA covert program designed to help rebels defeat Assad which Trump may end. The so-called moderate rebels are allied and cooperate with some groups that were until recently explicitly associated with Al-Qaeda. The rebels show little concern that some of those against Assad are radical jihadists. The important aspect of the situation for them is that they are opposing Assad.

Trump's position will probably resonate with Putin since Trump is unlikely to try and pressure Russia to drop support for Assad. However, he may find himself in conflict with the CIA.