If HoR does not vote confidence in GNA, UN may make an illegal move

Although no regular news media are yet reporting on what is happening, it appears that the planned meeting of the Libyan House of Representatives on April 18 may not take place.

The meeting was planned for the House of Representatives (HoR) to provide a vote of confidence in the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) and also to amend the constitutional declaration of 2011. The meeting was to take place no later than April 18. Not too long ago the president of the HoR, together with two of the deputy presidents, met in Cairo to discuss the way forward. Afterwards, Emhemed Shouaib issued a statement clarifying what had been decided at the meeting.

Shouaib noted that part of the agreement was for the HoR to meet and vote on the GNA and the constitutional amendment. However, there were several other points as well including a meeting of the Libya Dialogue Committee on Thursday which appears not to have happened: Third, the head of the UN Support MIssion in Libya was to call a meeting of the Libya Dialogue Committee to discuss recent events. In particular the claim that the State Council was officially constituted at the recent meeting in Tripoli. He, Salah and the other deputy all consider the meeting a violation of the LPA under article 64.The meeting also agreed to denounce the sanctions imposed by the EU on the president of the HoR, Ageela Salah.

Martin Kobler, the UN Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG), in his press release on the meeting of the three, made no mention of the sanctions or any meeting of the Dialogue Committee. It appears not to have happened. However, Kobler did say:“The House of Representatives remains central to the political process and to the implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind about this,” stated Martin Kobler.

Yet just today, Kobler issued a tweet clearly indicating that if the HoR does not vote on GNA he will consider other ways of proceeding and seek the advice of the Dialogue Committee. Nothing at all about the formation of the State Council or seeking advice about that issue:To @skynewsarabia: if HoR didn't vote on the GNA, I intend to convene the Libyan Political Dialogue to seek their advice on how to proceedThe tweet may be intended as a threat to force the HoR to vote on the GNA but it could be a threat that he carries out should the HoR not vote. He did this before when the HoR did not vote confidence in the GNA. He called together the Dialogue whom he claims gave him the green light for the GNA to be declared operational and move to Tripoli. He also referred to a letter by an alleged majority of the HoR in which they affirm their support for the GNA. There was never any formal vote on the issue.

When the rival General National Council (GNC) did not support the GNA and the president Abusahmain did not submit a list of members of the State Council as required by the Libyan Political Agreement, the UN simply avoided that requirement. Makhzoum, who supported the GNA and signed the agreement, drew up a list of members that was accepted by the UN and GNA. They held a meeting in Tripoli. At first they met as the GNC, passed motions approving the GNA and amending the constitutional declaration and then dissolved the GNC, becoming the State Council. The same type of action could happen again as I suggested in a recent article with the part of the HoR that supports the GNA pretending to be the Tobruk HoR.

Instead of more fruitless attempts to pass a motion through the HoR, Kobler can just gather together members of the HoR who approve the GNA in Tripoli. There they can pass the required vote of confidence and constitutional amendment and then become the legislature of the HoR leaving the Tobruk HoR isolated and probably without any funds coming from the Central Bank.

Another sign, that there will be no vote of confidence in the GNA is the fierce criticism of Kobler and the GNA of Faiez Serraj by Ageela Salah the president of the HoR. It does not sound as if Salah is about to do Kobler's bidding. The failure to address the issue of the State Council will make Salah and others even angrier. The east could be planning an exit from any unity government altogether. Supporters of Haftar and the influence of former members of the Gadaffi regime are becoming stronger in the east and they will have nothing to do with any government containing Islamists or other figures who oppose them. As a recent tweet put it:Ahmed El-Gasir ‏@amelgasir 46m46 minutes ago

Return of leading figures from #Gadhafi regime & holding meetings w/ #Haftar in #al_Marj

#Libya #GNA @UNSMILibyaOf course one never knows what is going to happen in Libya. Perhaps, Kobler will be able to make some deal over the weekend and the HoR will meet and vote confidence in the GNA and approve an amendment to the constitutional declaration of 2011.