Rival claimants to Afghanistan presidency make a deal

(May 18)After months of dispute over the presidential election in Afghanistan, with both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah claiming the presidency, the two competitors have agreed to a power-sharing deal last Sunday.

While Ghani had been declared the winner by a narrow margin Abdullah Abdullah contested the results. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had tried to mediate a compromise but had failed. No doubt to show its displeasure the US cut one billion from US aid to Afghanistan. Perhaps the agreement will help avoid any further cuts to US aid to Afghanistan.

On Sunday Sedig Sediggi, Ghani's spokesperson said:"The Political Agreement between President Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah has just been signed."

The deal

Ironically the deal is almost the same as one first proposed by Ghani months ago. Ghani will remain president under the deal, but Abdullah will become vice president. Abdullah will also be in charge of intra-Afghan peace talks with the Taliban. His supporters will also obtain some cabinet positions. In a previous election there was the same disputed results but at that time the US was able to mediate a compromise with the creation of a Chief Executive Officer position for Abdullah while Ghani remained president.

Talks between Afghan government and Taliban should resume

At the end of February the Taliban and US signed a peace agreement. The US has already begun withdrawing troops as part of the agreement. However, as a confidence-building measure the agreement terms included a prisoner swap of 5,000 Taliban imprisoned by the Afghan government in return for 1,000 imprisoned by the Taliban. The Afghan government refused to carry out the swap because it was not part of the agreement. Attempts to resolve the issue through talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government have so far failed. Because of this the Taliban resumed attacks on the government claiming that the deal had been broken.

Now that there is a more secure Afghan government future talks could be more successful. A recent article notes:"US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad said on Friday that a new date for intra-Afghan peace talks was under discussion and he would soon travel to the region and try to encourage a reduction in violence.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Two claimants to Afghan presidency reach tentative deal

(May 2) The two claimants to the presidency of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah have finally come to a "tentative deal" according to Abdullah Abdullah. Details are set to be released soon.

The term "tentative deal" is in quotes because according to a tweet by Abdullah Abdullah the two are still working on details though they have agreed upon principles: " We have made progress in negotiations & reached tentative agreement on a range of principles. Work on details is underway to finalize the agreement."

Ghani had earlier suggested a compromise

Polls showed that Ghani had eked out a narrow victory but this was contested by Abdullah Abdullah. Under the Ghani agreement Abdullah Abdullah would have become vice-president and would have been in charge of peace talks with the Taliban. It is not clear whether the new tentative agreement would have similar terms.

The new agreement

While the precise details are not known it is thought to be focused on preparing for talks with the Taliban. Although there has been an agreement between the Taliban and the US since the end of February, the Afghan government was not involved. The Ghani government refused to carry out the terms of a prisoner swap that was part of that agreement. As a result the Taliban resumed attacks on the government. Negotiations have so failed to produce a solution so talks are necessary to resolve the issue and hopefully result in a ceasefire and peace.

The agreement should unify political power blocs and help Afghanistan to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pompeo's failure

Earlier in the year, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had attempted to mediate a solution to the presidential crisis but without success. In response the US punished the two by removing $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan. The lack of a compromise US officials claimed was against US interests. Pompeo also said that the US would start a review of all its projects in Afghanistan to identify additional reductions.

However, Pompeo insisted that the US was not abandoning their partnership with Afghanistan or its commitment to support US security forces. The US is providing $15 million to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless the US is already withdrawing troops from Afghanistan as part of the deal with the Taliban.

Trump appears anxious to withdraw troops from Afghanistan as the withdrawal is already ahead of schedule.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

After new Afghan president sworn in drones kill 4 Afghan civilians

Ashraf Ghani the newly inaugurated Afghan president has signed a bilateral security agreement(BSA) with the US to allow US troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond the end of 2014 when the present agreement will expire.

While both a meeting of elders, a loya jirga, and also the Afghan parliament had approved the BSA, then president Hamid Karzai refused to sign the document. He cited as a reason that the deal did not do enough to limit US airstrikes in civilian areas. The document had barely been signed when US drones attacked and destroyed a car full of civilians in Khost Province killing four. The Khost police believe that the attack on the car was a case of mistaken identity. Militants reportedly killed a district development council head and then fled in a vehicle similar to the one attacked. The family of the victims insisted that those killed were neither militants nor armed. US authorities have not issued a statement yet on the drone attack.
 The BSA will see 9,800 US troops left behind at the end of 2014. The total number of troops in a new NATO-led mission will be approximately 12,000 in 2015. The agreement also allows for a separate US-led force that will carry out anti-terrorist operations.. There is a separate NATO agreement that will allow about 3,000 troops to remain in Afghanistan led by Germany with Italy and Turkey also contributing some troops.
US president Barack Obama said that the day was historic in US-Afghan relations. He said: "We look forward to working with this new government to cement an enduring partnership that strengthens Afghan sovereignty, stability, unity, and prosperity." Back in 2013, the US threatened to withdraw all its troops if Karzai did not sign the agreement before the end of that year. Now it is finally signed at the end of the third quarter of 2014.
 Present plans call for the 9,800 US troops to be reduced to only 4,900 at the end of 2014, and at the end of 2015 with complete withdrawal at the end of 2016 with perhaps one thousand troops remaining in a security office. The BSA is a followup to the Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement between the US and Afghanistan went into effect on July 4 2012. The agreement set out relationships between the two countries through 2024 but left the issue of the number of US troops that would stay in Afghanistan after 2014 to be negotiated through a BSA. However, the agreement did commit the US to considerable aid and funding for the Afghan military. Among the provisions are: Commitment by the U.S. to seek funding from the U.S. Congress on an annual basis for social and economic assistance for Afghanistan as well as to support the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)
 The new president, Ashraf Ghani, had the support of former president Hamid Karzai. However, his new power-sharing government faces numerous problems as indicated in this article. Ghani will no doubt be looked on favorably in he west as he received his higher education in the US and worked at the World Bank and UN. However, he faces not only the Taliban insurgency but a weak economy. Since he shares power with his defeated opponent Abdullah Abdullah he will need his cooperation to govern effectively. Abdullah believes that Ghani won the presidency through fraud in the runoff election.

Taliban seize key area between Kabul and Kandahar on major highway

Hundreds of Taliban attacked the Ajrestan District of Ghazni province a key link between the capital Kabul and southern areas. The Taliban have also been making advances in the south recently.

Some 700 Taliban are said to be involved in the battle which has lasted about a week already. Although fighting is still continuing, there have been over 100 killed and the Afghan forces have been pushed back giving the Taliban effective control over the area. The highway through the area links Kabul to the main southern city of Kandahar.
 Provincial officials say they have lost all contact with police in the area. NATO has attempted to allow the Afghan military to counter Taliban attacks of late with the result that the Taliban are making gains in the south and central areas of Afghanistan. Earlier, Taliban had attacked a government compound in the area containing intelligence and police offices killing at least 8 security personnel and losing 19 of their own fighters. Deputy police chief of the Ajrestan area Asadullah Safi said on Friday: "If there is no urgent help from the central government, the district will collapse". The authorities have lost contact with Safi. With no air cover to pin down the Taliban attackers the Taliban have launched many attacks against military posts. Provincial officials were able to contact an army unit late Friday. The unit reported that fighting was still raging and that Afghan army commandos from outside Ghazni province had arrived as reinforcement.
Ajrestan is a small town but surrounded by about 100 villages. Control of the mountainous Ajrestan district that is about 125 miles southwest of Kabul will provide the Taliban a base to launch attacks on two bordering provinces and along the crucial highway as well. Provincial governor Ahmadi said that he had asked repeatedly for helicopters to evacuate wounded security forces but to no avail.
 Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq, leader of the ethnic Hazara minority said: "Peace with the Taliban requires a strong government. At the moment, the Taliban think they can fight in every province and they believe they can overthrow the government, Without international support it will be hard to provide security ... The example of Ajrestan district shows that without international commitment of troops, it will be difficult to handle the Taliban."
 These attacks come just days before the new Afghan president Ashraf Ghani is to be inaugurated in a unity deal with his opponent Abdullah Abdullah. All foreign troops are set to withdraw by the end of 2014 but the new president has promised that he will sign on to a bilateral security agreement that will allow some troops to remain after that time. The control of the battle against the Taliban already seems to be mainly by the Afghan government. Afghan officials claim that the continuing loses by their forces show that a peace settlement must be negotiated with the Taliban since without a powerful NATO occupation force they will be unable to defeat the Taliban in battle.

Rival Afghan presidential candidates reach deal at last

Rival candidates Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani were said to be close to a power-sharing agreement back on Tuesday Sept. 16 but talks stalled in part because the two could not agree when the results of final vote audit should be released.

Abdullah does not want the results as they now stand made public.Those results are widely thought to show him losing by a considerable margin even though he led by a good margin in the first vote before the runoff. Both Abdullah and Ghani had assured their western backers that they would support a deal brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry. There would be a complete audit of all the votes cast and the formation of a unity government that would see the loser given a new chief executive position.
 The latest report from the Los Angeles Times indicated that the two rival candidates finally reached a deal yesterday September 19 on the formation of a unity government, even though they still have divisions over the final results. The two candidates also had difficulties defining the powers of the new post of chief executive. The reports of an agreement may be a bit premature since aides to both Ghani and Abdullah claimed that the two had not yet agreed on the result of the audit of the all 8 million votes cast in the June runoff. Abdullah claims that massive fraud allowed Ghani to win.
 The Afghan Independent Election Commission is set to announce the results of the election on Saturday afternoon according to one source but the next day Sunday according to another. Ghani is expected to win by a comfortable margin.
Not only Abdullah, but Ghani also had objections to some aspects of a proposed agreement which would see the president along with the chief executive together form the government. Ghani said that this would remove powers from the president granted by the Afghan constitution.
No matter who wins the presidency both rivals have promised that they would sign a bilateral security agreement with the US that has already been passed by the Afghan parliament. It would allow the US to keep up to 10,000 troops in Afghanistan after the present agreement ends at the end of 2014. The US is anxious to have the agreement signed as soon as possible. Abdulllah Abdullah represents northern groups and power brokers while Ghani has the support of many in the Pashtun majority in the south and east of Pakistan. Ghani is a former World Bank official and finance minister and has the support of Karzai. Abdullah is a former foreign minister.
There has been enormous pressure from the US and others for a deal to be made. Even if Abdullah agrees to a deal, some of his supporters may not accept the results of the audit assuming Abdullah is the loser. However, Nasrullah Arsalai, an Abdullah campaign manager said both rivals need to compromise: They need to be responsible, act responsibly. This is not about Dr. Ghani and Dr. Abdullah. This is about Afghanistan. This is about the interest of our allies. This is about all the efforts of these 13 years. This is all about the sacrifices of Afghans and our allies have made. For that reason they need to be responsible."

Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah again derails Kerry deal

One of two Afghan presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, threatened to again derail the process brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry to solve the continuing crisis in choosing a president.

An audit of all 8 million votes cast in the runoff election is being conducted under the supervision of the United Nations and monitored by both Abdullah and his rival Ashraf Ghani. Abdullah withdrew from the process after complaining that his concerns were not being met. In the first stage of the elections Abdullah had been far ahead but in the runoff results showed his rival to be the winner. Abdullah claimed there was massive fraud during the runoff that resulted in the win by Ghani.
When Abdullah withdrew his team from the audi, Ghani was asked to do likewise. Ghani complied and the audit continued. Observers expect the audit to be completed this week and that Ghani will be declared the winner.
 Just recently in a news conference both candidates claimed that they were committed to forming a national unity government. Now, the situation has grown murky once again. Some of Abdullah's supporters have advocated that he form a parallel government. Abdullah himself said nothing of this in a speech to supporters or in a brief news conference. He did not request that his supporters mount protests in the streets either.
 There is some indication that some of Abdullah's supporters are less willing to compromise than Abdullah. He may simply be trying to bargain for a more powerful role for himself in any government of national unity should he lose. His own rhetoric may be designed for his supporters: “I will not accept fraud and any result from fraudulent vote. Not even for a single day will we accept a government based on fraudulent votes.” Even though talks on forming a national unity government were deadlocked, Abdullah did not rule out their resumption.
 Obama phoned both candidates last Saturday, September 6, urging both to negotiate an end to their differences. He emphasized that a resolution of the presidency issue would help generate international support for Afghanistan as well as improving stability according to a news release from the White House.
 A recent NATO summit in Wales discussed Afghanistan but with no new Afghan president in attendance as had been planned. Even after Abdullah said that he would not accept the results of the audit, the Ghani team still suggested that differences should be settled through dialogues. Abdullah called on his own supporters to avoid violence.
 September 9th is a national holiday held in memory of Ahmed Massoud, a Northern Alliance leader killed by Al Qaeda on that date in 2001. Past years have experienced violent clashes with rival political and ethnic groups during celebrations. Most Northern Alliance supporters also favor Abdullah although one of Massoud's brothers supports Ghani. Ghani has the support of many of the Pashtun majority in the south and eastern Afghanistan and also the backing of president Karzai.
Abdullah cautioned his supporters: “Don’t mix up the political crisis with the events of tomorrow and the commemoration of Martyrs’ Day. Our campaign does not support or condone violence.” Nevertheless in a nationally televised TV speech Abdullah said that the auditing process simply ignored widespread fraud: "We were the winners of the election. We are the winners of the election based on the real vote of the people." At the present juncture there seems no agreement to accept the results of the audit let alone agreement on a subsequent national unity government.
However, a few more phone calls threatening a cessation of aid from the US and western allies could once again change the discord into harmony at least on the surface. Unless a president is soon chosen to sign a bilateral agreement on security, NATO claims that it will be unable to keep any troops in the country. Both candidates say they would sign the agreement already passed by parliament and a meeting of elders. Karzai refused to sign it. As shown by the appended video, Karzai wants the Kerry agreement to be completed soon. This is another sign that Ghani is set to win.

Rival Afghan presidential candidates promise NATO they will agree to a "government of national unity"

Rival Afghan presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, assured NATO that they would form a "government of national unity". They also promised as they have in the past to sign a new joint security agreement.

Abdullah Abdullah was the leader in the first Afghan vote but in the runoff he trailed his closest opponent Ashraf Ghani. However, Abdullah claimed that there was massive fraud in the runoff vote. A deal brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry involved an audit of all the 8 million votes cast in the second round monitored by the UN. Abdullah pulled out of the audit after demands he made went unmet. Ashraf was then asked to withdraw his auditors as well and did so. The audit then continued. 

Talks on a national unity government broke down but perhaps they will restart again. Funding of Afghanistan and continuation of a training and advising mission in 2015 were discussed at the recent NATO summit but there was no new Afghan president at the meeting since who that will be has not yet been determined.

 Ashraf Ghani may very well win when the audit finishes. It is not clear if the losing candidate will accept the results and the nature of any national unity government is not yet agreed upon. In a message read in Kabul the two candidates said: "We believe in an inclusive political vision. We will form a government of national unity and will honor the participation of our people in the election process."  

There are still 44,000 troops in Afghanistan as part of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force. Once a joint security agreement is signed a smaller force of about 12,000 will remain mainly in a training and advisory role. However, if a new president is not installed within a month or so, there may not be time to arrange for any troops to stay according to NATO officials.

 The recent NATO meeting renewed a commitment to support Afghan forces until 1917. Afghanistan is very much dependent on foreign aid to pay for its army and police who now number 350,000. 

US aid in 2012 went mainly to support the military: The bulk of the $12.9 billion in aid to Afghanistan—$9.95 billion—went towards spending on military and security assistance to arm and train Afghan military and police forces. Afghan aid often ends up in the pockets of corrupt politicians and often does not achieve the goals intended. 

 This article points out numerous problems with US aid programs: In a recent quarterly report, the US special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction said that, when security for aid workers is figured in, the total amount of nonmilitary funds Washington has appropriated since 2002 “is approximately $100 billion”—more than the US has ever spent to rebuild a country. That estimate came out in July. Since then, Congress has appropriated another $16.5 billion for “reconstruction.” And all of that has not bought the United States or the Afghans a single sustainable institution or program. Nevertheless the Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement commits the US to funding "to support Afghanistan's social and economic development, security, institutions and regional cooperation for ten years".

Hamid Karzai has to stay on for now as Afghan presidential impasse continues

As Hamid Karzai was scheduled to step down today, September 2, as president of Afghanistan there is still no president to take his place. NATO is slated to discuss Afghanistan at a summit in Wales in two days time with no new Afghan president to attend.

US Secretary of State John Kerry had brokered a deal in which all 8 million votes cast in the June runoff elections would be audited and a national unity government formed with the runner-up in the vote to name a "chief executive". Abddullah Abdullah who won in the first round of voting by a large margin, ran second in the runoff vote against Ashraf Ghani. Abdullah claimed that there was massive fraud and vote-rigging in the runoff. John Kerry consequently was able to broker the deal described above. Mohammad Mohaqeq, a vice-presidential running mate of Abdullah said that the two sides were unable to agree on the powers of the chief executive and accused Ghani's side of taking a hard line on the issue. Mohaqeq, a leader of the Hazara minority, said: “The talks collapsed two days ago. The political process is now at a stalemate; we don't see any way out.” In an ominous threat, the Abdullah group said it would pull out of the political process entirely if its demands were not met by Tuesday, September 2. Ally of Abdullah, Balkh provincial governor Atta Noor, told his supporters to be ready for street protests.

 Abdullah's group had earlier withdrawn from a UN audit of the run-off election votes His team expressed dissatisfaction with the manner in which allegedly fraudulent votes were being treated. The UN asked Ghani's team to also withdraw from monitoring the audit. The audit then continued with neither group present. President Karzai had planned for the inauguration of the new president September 2 when he intended to step down. Now he will be forced to continue as president until a decision is made as to who won the runoff election. The audit is still not expected to be completed until Sept. 10 but even then since there is no agreement on a unity government the situation remains unclear. 

 Karzai is not going to quit power without the completion of the process, a spokesman said:“The President is not considering the step down before the official transfer of power to the new Afghan President. It is unconstitutional to step down before officially transferring the power to his successor." 

 NATO and the US plan to keep some troops mainly in an advisory and training role in Afghanistan after the end of 2014. However, to do so, they want the new president to sign a bilateral security agreement that will set out the role and status of the forces. An agreement was approved by a meeting of Afghan elders and the Afghan parliament some time ago but Karzai has refused to sign it, and issued further demands that the US rejected. Karzai will not attend the NATO summit but has nominated his defense minister to attend instead. Both presidential candidates have agreed to sign. However, if there is no president soon NATO officials claim that they will have no alternative but to pull out all their troops at the end of 2014 without leaving any behind.

Afghan presidency not likely settled before next deadline Sept. 2

Although August 25 was set as the date for inauguration of the new Afghan president the issue of who will be president is still not settled even after several months of recounts and audits of the votes subsequent to the summer vote.

Abdullah Abdullah who won the first round claims that there was fraud including ballot stuffing on behalf of his opponent Ashraf Ghani in the runoff. Preliminary results in the runoff show Ghani in the lead. The audit is still not even close to finished. Karzai says that he will relinquish the presidency by September 2, the new scheduled inauguration date. However, at the present pace it seems highly unlikely that the results will be finalized by that time.

 Teams representing the two candidates are continually fighting over which ballots should or should not be counted. The US, led by Secretary of State John Kerry, brokered a deal between the two candidates who agreed to cooperate on an audit of the entire 8 million votes that were cast in order to ensure that any fraudulent votes were rejected. The two also agreed that whoever won would form a government of national unity. Hamid Karzai the outgoing president has run the country since 2001. 

 The election, lasting 10 weeks, took place back on June 14 under UN supervision. However, as with past Afghan elections there have been accusations of fraud from many sides. The Independent Electoral Commission(IEC) is just now due to begin rejecting votes judged fraudulent. Spokesperson for the IEC,Noor Mohammad Noor, said: "The Independent Election Commission is trying very hard to finish the process as soon as possible". The new inauguration date of Sept. 2 is just two days prior to a NATO summit that will determine how much aid NATO countries will provide for Afghanistan after most NATO troops will pull out of the country at the end of this year. Having a new president and a peaceful power transition would be a sign that NATO was leaving with at least some degree of success after 13 years in Afghanistan. This in turn would perhaps lead to a generous aid package. Many doubt that the process can be completed by Sept. 2.  

Abdullah spokesperson Mujib Rahimi said: "Honestly, I cannot come out with something definite on that, but I hope. It's Afghanistan. Things are unpredictable." An unidentified official from the Ghani campaign was even more pessimistic.He said that there had been little progress on deciding what the power-sharing government of national unity would be like and said:"Nothing yet has added to the political framework and the commission couldn't reach an agreement in most of the areas". One unidentified Western official also expressed doubts about having finalized results before Sept. 2, saying:"I don't see how there will be any space for compromise, because the pie is too small and there are too many people who want a piece." 

Karzai is accused by Abdullah of helping Ghani in the runoff to a fraudulent win but both Ghani and Karzai deny this. Karzai has been urging both candidates to cooperate in the auditing process. His office issued a statement: "Prolonging of the presidential process has affected people's daily life, particularly in security, economy and governance.This must end as soon as possible."  

The impasse has hurt the Afghan economy and also given encouragement to the Taliban insurgents. Western supporters fear that one or the other of the candidates might pull out of the process or reject the result of the edit. There could be protests and civil unrest as a result. The audit process seems far from complete. As of last Monday August 25, just, 3,644 of the 23,000 ballot boxes were put through the invalidation process. 74 boxes were rejected, and 697 selected for a further recount.  

UN mission chief Jan Kubis noted:"It is still premature to draw conclusions about the final audit result based on these initial findings All parties should continue to respect the process so as to not create unrealistic expectations." The Afghan government expelled a NY Times reporter for writing an article claiming that government officials were considering seizing power to end the long standoff between the two candidates. The conflict between the two candidates mirrors the latent conflicts between Pashtuns in the south and east of Afghanistan who support Ghani and Tajiks and other northern groups who support Abdullah. Abdullah is again threatening to pull out of the audit process.