Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah again derails Kerry deal

One of two Afghan presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, threatened to again derail the process brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry to solve the continuing crisis in choosing a president.



An audit of all 8 million votes cast in the runoff election is being conducted under the supervision of the United Nations and monitored by both Abdullah and his rival Ashraf Ghani. Abdullah withdrew from the process after complaining that his concerns were not being met. In the first stage of the elections Abdullah had been far ahead but in the runoff results showed his rival to be the winner. Abdullah claimed there was massive fraud during the runoff that resulted in the win by Ghani.
When Abdullah withdrew his team from the audi, Ghani was asked to do likewise. Ghani complied and the audit continued. Observers expect the audit to be completed this week and that Ghani will be declared the winner.
 Just recently in a news conference both candidates claimed that they were committed to forming a national unity government. Now, the situation has grown murky once again. Some of Abdullah's supporters have advocated that he form a parallel government. Abdullah himself said nothing of this in a speech to supporters or in a brief news conference. He did not request that his supporters mount protests in the streets either.
 There is some indication that some of Abdullah's supporters are less willing to compromise than Abdullah. He may simply be trying to bargain for a more powerful role for himself in any government of national unity should he lose. His own rhetoric may be designed for his supporters: “I will not accept fraud and any result from fraudulent vote. Not even for a single day will we accept a government based on fraudulent votes.” Even though talks on forming a national unity government were deadlocked, Abdullah did not rule out their resumption.
 Obama phoned both candidates last Saturday, September 6, urging both to negotiate an end to their differences. He emphasized that a resolution of the presidency issue would help generate international support for Afghanistan as well as improving stability according to a news release from the White House.
 A recent NATO summit in Wales discussed Afghanistan but with no new Afghan president in attendance as had been planned. Even after Abdullah said that he would not accept the results of the audit, the Ghani team still suggested that differences should be settled through dialogues. Abdullah called on his own supporters to avoid violence.
 September 9th is a national holiday held in memory of Ahmed Massoud, a Northern Alliance leader killed by Al Qaeda on that date in 2001. Past years have experienced violent clashes with rival political and ethnic groups during celebrations. Most Northern Alliance supporters also favor Abdullah although one of Massoud's brothers supports Ghani. Ghani has the support of many of the Pashtun majority in the south and eastern Afghanistan and also the backing of president Karzai.
Abdullah cautioned his supporters: “Don’t mix up the political crisis with the events of tomorrow and the commemoration of Martyrs’ Day. Our campaign does not support or condone violence.” Nevertheless in a nationally televised TV speech Abdullah said that the auditing process simply ignored widespread fraud: "We were the winners of the election. We are the winners of the election based on the real vote of the people." At the present juncture there seems no agreement to accept the results of the audit let alone agreement on a subsequent national unity government.
However, a few more phone calls threatening a cessation of aid from the US and western allies could once again change the discord into harmony at least on the surface. Unless a president is soon chosen to sign a bilateral agreement on security, NATO claims that it will be unable to keep any troops in the country. Both candidates say they would sign the agreement already passed by parliament and a meeting of elders. Karzai refused to sign it. As shown by the appended video, Karzai wants the Kerry agreement to be completed soon. This is another sign that Ghani is set to win.


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