Rival claimants to Afghanistan presidency make a deal

(May 18)After months of dispute over the presidential election in Afghanistan, with both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah claiming the presidency, the two competitors have agreed to a power-sharing deal last Sunday.

While Ghani had been declared the winner by a narrow margin Abdullah Abdullah contested the results. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had tried to mediate a compromise but had failed. No doubt to show its displeasure the US cut one billion from US aid to Afghanistan. Perhaps the agreement will help avoid any further cuts to US aid to Afghanistan.

On Sunday Sedig Sediggi, Ghani's spokesperson said:"The Political Agreement between President Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah has just been signed."

The deal

Ironically the deal is almost the same as one first proposed by Ghani months ago. Ghani will remain president under the deal, but Abdullah will become vice president. Abdullah will also be in charge of intra-Afghan peace talks with the Taliban. His supporters will also obtain some cabinet positions. In a previous election there was the same disputed results but at that time the US was able to mediate a compromise with the creation of a Chief Executive Officer position for Abdullah while Ghani remained president.

Talks between Afghan government and Taliban should resume

At the end of February the Taliban and US signed a peace agreement. The US has already begun withdrawing troops as part of the agreement. However, as a confidence-building measure the agreement terms included a prisoner swap of 5,000 Taliban imprisoned by the Afghan government in return for 1,000 imprisoned by the Taliban. The Afghan government refused to carry out the swap because it was not part of the agreement. Attempts to resolve the issue through talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government have so far failed. Because of this the Taliban resumed attacks on the government claiming that the deal had been broken.

Now that there is a more secure Afghan government future talks could be more successful. A recent article notes:"US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad said on Friday that a new date for intra-Afghan peace talks was under discussion and he would soon travel to the region and try to encourage a reduction in violence.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Two claimants to Afghan presidency reach tentative deal

(May 2) The two claimants to the presidency of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah have finally come to a "tentative deal" according to Abdullah Abdullah. Details are set to be released soon.

The term "tentative deal" is in quotes because according to a tweet by Abdullah Abdullah the two are still working on details though they have agreed upon principles: " We have made progress in negotiations & reached tentative agreement on a range of principles. Work on details is underway to finalize the agreement."

Ghani had earlier suggested a compromise

Polls showed that Ghani had eked out a narrow victory but this was contested by Abdullah Abdullah. Under the Ghani agreement Abdullah Abdullah would have become vice-president and would have been in charge of peace talks with the Taliban. It is not clear whether the new tentative agreement would have similar terms.

The new agreement

While the precise details are not known it is thought to be focused on preparing for talks with the Taliban. Although there has been an agreement between the Taliban and the US since the end of February, the Afghan government was not involved. The Ghani government refused to carry out the terms of a prisoner swap that was part of that agreement. As a result the Taliban resumed attacks on the government. Negotiations have so failed to produce a solution so talks are necessary to resolve the issue and hopefully result in a ceasefire and peace.

The agreement should unify political power blocs and help Afghanistan to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pompeo's failure

Earlier in the year, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had attempted to mediate a solution to the presidential crisis but without success. In response the US punished the two by removing $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan. The lack of a compromise US officials claimed was against US interests. Pompeo also said that the US would start a review of all its projects in Afghanistan to identify additional reductions.

However, Pompeo insisted that the US was not abandoning their partnership with Afghanistan or its commitment to support US security forces. The US is providing $15 million to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless the US is already withdrawing troops from Afghanistan as part of the deal with the Taliban.

Trump appears anxious to withdraw troops from Afghanistan as the withdrawal is already ahead of schedule.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Hamid Karzai has to stay on for now as Afghan presidential impasse continues

As Hamid Karzai was scheduled to step down today, September 2, as president of Afghanistan there is still no president to take his place. NATO is slated to discuss Afghanistan at a summit in Wales in two days time with no new Afghan president to attend.

US Secretary of State John Kerry had brokered a deal in which all 8 million votes cast in the June runoff elections would be audited and a national unity government formed with the runner-up in the vote to name a "chief executive". Abddullah Abdullah who won in the first round of voting by a large margin, ran second in the runoff vote against Ashraf Ghani. Abdullah claimed that there was massive fraud and vote-rigging in the runoff. John Kerry consequently was able to broker the deal described above. Mohammad Mohaqeq, a vice-presidential running mate of Abdullah said that the two sides were unable to agree on the powers of the chief executive and accused Ghani's side of taking a hard line on the issue. Mohaqeq, a leader of the Hazara minority, said: “The talks collapsed two days ago. The political process is now at a stalemate; we don't see any way out.” In an ominous threat, the Abdullah group said it would pull out of the political process entirely if its demands were not met by Tuesday, September 2. Ally of Abdullah, Balkh provincial governor Atta Noor, told his supporters to be ready for street protests.

 Abdullah's group had earlier withdrawn from a UN audit of the run-off election votes His team expressed dissatisfaction with the manner in which allegedly fraudulent votes were being treated. The UN asked Ghani's team to also withdraw from monitoring the audit. The audit then continued with neither group present. President Karzai had planned for the inauguration of the new president September 2 when he intended to step down. Now he will be forced to continue as president until a decision is made as to who won the runoff election. The audit is still not expected to be completed until Sept. 10 but even then since there is no agreement on a unity government the situation remains unclear. 

 Karzai is not going to quit power without the completion of the process, a spokesman said:“The President is not considering the step down before the official transfer of power to the new Afghan President. It is unconstitutional to step down before officially transferring the power to his successor." 

 NATO and the US plan to keep some troops mainly in an advisory and training role in Afghanistan after the end of 2014. However, to do so, they want the new president to sign a bilateral security agreement that will set out the role and status of the forces. An agreement was approved by a meeting of Afghan elders and the Afghan parliament some time ago but Karzai has refused to sign it, and issued further demands that the US rejected. Karzai will not attend the NATO summit but has nominated his defense minister to attend instead. Both presidential candidates have agreed to sign. However, if there is no president soon NATO officials claim that they will have no alternative but to pull out all their troops at the end of 2014 without leaving any behind.

Karzai family feuds as it tries to retain power in Afghanistan

There is a long article here in the NY Times. Hamid Karzai steps down from the presidency in 2014. A brother Qayum is considering a run for the office. Other brothers are busy battling over control of the largest private residential project in Afghanistan.

The project call Aino Mena. Relatives accuse each other of theft and extortion even of an assassination plot. Qayum Karzai said:“It’s family,” “They get upset, and over time they get over it. I hope they get over it.”

Ahmed Wali Karzai the big boss in the Kandahar area was assassinated last year was thought to have hidden his fortune somewhere. All the relatives are fighting to find out where it is. Ahmed was thought to have profited from drug deals and corrupt practices.

The Karzai's along with other members of the Afghan elite have profited greatly from the NATO mostly U.S. military presence and have enriched themselves at U.S. (and others) taxpayers expense. Much money has been exported from Afghanistan to the UAE particularly Dubai where some have estates.

Seth Jones an analyst at the RAND corporation said:“If you are one of the Afghan oligarchs, where you put your money and where you live is an open question now,” “That means you are thinking about moving your money and finding a backup option about where to live.”

Hamid Karzai's family includes many who are U.S. citizens who returned to Afghanistan after the Taliban government was toppled by as U.S. led coalition. Many of them have prospered under the U.S. occupation according to many Afghan businessmen. Observers say that Qayum's bid for president would probably fail as there is widespread disenchantment with Hamid Karzai's government that has been rife with corruption. For much more detail see the full article.

Afghanistan sovereignty under the talons of the eagle.

If anyone ever thought the U.S. was really interested in an independent Afghanistan this article should disabuse him or her of that idea. It is already being arranged that a new puppet with better connections should be "democratically" chosen as the next president. Karzai has sometimes been a bad puppet criticizing the U.S. and yet being unable to influence Washington. As the article points out it is Washington not Afghanistan that is important and that is why Khalilzad would be the right man for the job.


Bush's former Iraq ambassador to seek Afghan presidency
With Hamid Karzai seen as ineffective, many people are looking to someone with serious influence in Washington
By Kim Sengupta in KabulSunday, 8 June 2008
In his time, he has been President George Bush's point man in Baghdad, Kabul and the UN, as well as a lobbyist for both the Taliban and international oil companies. Now Zalmay Khalilzad is preparing to run for the presidency of his native Afghanistan.
Representatives of Mr Khalilzad, currently US ambassador to the UN, have discreetly sounded out various factions to ascertain his chances in the election scheduled for 2009. Although the incumbent, Hamid Karzai, is expected to run again, he is increasingly unpopular at home while his Western backers see him as ineffectual against the Taliban.
Three meetings have been held with opposition groups in recent months to promote Mr Khalilzad, pictured, as a "unifying" candidate in a country where deep divisions have begun to emerge between the Pashtun communities of the south and the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras of the north.
Mr Khalilzad, a Pashtun, was born in Laghman province in the south-east of the country, but raised in Mazar-i-Sharif in the north. He is on good terms with some former leaders of the Northern Alliance who have split from the Karzai government.
Speculation about the 56-year-old Mr Khalilzad's political ambitions sparked into life when he gave a TV interview, saying he was placing himself "at the service of the Afghan people". He was also said to be considering resigning from his post at the UN. The highest-ranking Muslim in the US administration, he was made the effective viceroy of Afghanistan after the 2001 invasion by President Bush before being moved on to Iraq to sort out the mess left by Paul Bremer.
The candidacy of Mr Khalilzad, a Rhodes scholar who has spent most of his adult life in the US and has an American wife, may come as a surprise, but many Afghan commentators say he would enjoy a high degree of support.
"A lot of people in this country feel that things were getting done while he was in charge and have deteriorated since he left," said Waheed Muzhda, a leading political analyst. "He kept the warlords much more in check, the Taliban had not come back and corruption was nothing like as bad as it is now. His close connection with the US government is actually in his favour. Many see Karzai as a US puppet anyway, so the feeling is, why not have someone who has got some actual influence in Washington, and can do some good for Afghanistan?"
Diplomatic sources agree that Mr Khalilzad seems to be using his UN post to pave the way for a run at the Afghan presidency. He was accused of undermining the prospect of Paddy Ashdown becoming the UN representative in Afghanistan because he didn't want a heavyweight international figure, controlling a huge budget, as a potential rival.

U.S. envoy may challenge for Afghan presidency.

This is from the Telegraph. Note that the article claims that Khalilzad selected Karzai to be president in 2004.

"Mr Khalilzad is rumoured to have long had his eye on replacing President Karzai, the man he picked to become Afghanistan's first president in 2004."

Nothing like having an independent Afghanistan ruled by presidents from the U.S. or picked by American Envoys!




US envoy may challenge for Afghan presidency
By Thomas Coghlan
Last Updated: 1:41am BST 10/04/2008



The Afghan-born US Ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, has signalled that he will run for the presidency of Afghanistan in elections next year.

Mr Khalilzad is a senior figure in the Bush administration who served as ambassador to Kabul before becoming ambassador to Iraq and then the UN.

He holds US citizenship, is married to an American and is a former professor at Columbia University.

advertisementHe has fuelled speculation of a run by announcing on Afghan television: "I will resign from my official work in the next few months and start a private business."

Asked if he would stand for the presidency, he replied: "I have said earlier that I'm not a candidate for any position in Afghanistan, but I am at the service of the Afghan people."

Sources close to Mr Khalilzad within the Afghan establishment insist that he is considering a run for the presidency and has been putting out feelers to political factions within the country.

"He is under pressure to stand from within Afghanistan," said one source. "His comments are genuine in that he will come to Afghanistan and work in the private sector, but he will reassess towards the end of this year whether he has a chance to take the presidency."

Mr Khalilzad is rumoured to have long had his eye on replacing President Karzai, the man he picked to become Afghanistan's first president in 2004.

Mr Khalilzad's supporters are alleged to have sounded out Pashtun tribal chiefs in the south as well as figures within the Northern Alliance, which now calls itself the National Unity Front.

The popularity of President Karzai has waned as disquiet at government corruption and the resurgence of the Taliban has been felt across the country.

Mr Karzai has become increasingly critical of the international community in an apparent attempt to bolster support at home, most notably by attacking Britain and blocking Lord Ashdown, the British diplomat, for the position of UN envoy in Kabul.

The Afghan president let slip his own intention to stand for re-election this week.

Following his return from the Nato conference in Bucharest on Sunday, Mr Karzai said: "I want to complete the work that I started - if they vote for me."