Rebels in eastern Ukraine agree to move back smaller caliber weapons from most of front lines

- Rebels in the separatist eastern regions in Donetsk and Luhansk have agreed to move back smaller-caliber weapons from much of the front lines in eastern Ukraine.

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The withdrawal of weapons from the front lines by each side has been required by the Minsk agreement. The process started back in late February. Violations of the agreement have been frequent ever since then and there have been heavy casualties at times on both sides. Ukrainian military spokesperson Col. Lysenkosaid that three civilians had been killed in the town of Avdivka. Digital Journal reports recent shelling with casualties in Donetsk.

Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the Donetsk Republic rebels claimed his forces are willing to pull back tanks and armored vehicles with weapons under 100mm 3 kilometers or 1.9 miles from the front line except for what he called problem areas. Luhansk rebels are willing to make a similar move. A statement by rebel officials to a Russian news agency said: "To show our commitment to the Minsk agreements, we are ready to make the next step towards peace. For that, [we are ready] to pull back our units with tanks and armored vehicles, equipped with weapons under 100mm calibre, to at least three kilometres (1.9 miles) from the front line,” However, the statement also spoke of "problem areas" that would be exceptions to the policy. Since the conflict in the eastern regions broke out in April of 2014 an estimated 6,500 people have been killed. While a peace agreement was brokered in Minsk Belarus last February violations of the agreement have been continual.

As part of the Minsk agreement Ukraine agreed to constitutional changes that would grant autonomy to the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. There is considerable resistance to the legislation and the US and others are exerting pressure on Kiev. Serhiy Taruta, former governor of the Donetsk region complained: "With this constitutional reform we will legitimize the status of occupied territory, and I think that is a defeat for Ukraine." Bogdan Jarmenko claimed that considerable pressure is being exerted on the Ukraine to pass the legislation. President Petro Poroshenko denies he is under foreign pressure. However the US has an important official present:The presence of US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland at the parliamentary vote was evidence of just how important the reform is. Prior to the vote, Nuland met with legislators in Kyiv to convince them to vote in favor of the proposal.

While Ukrainian officials face objections that the legislation is a victory for the rebels, the rebels and Russians criticized the draft proposals.The Russian Foreign Ministry called the draft "an exercise in political demagoguery". Another official said the drafts had nothing to do with the Minsk agreement. The separatists were also critical and complained that the drafts had been prepared without any consultation with them.

Ukraine and rebels swap prisoners on Xmas

Although talks in Minsk so far have not reached a peace deal, there has been agreement between the eastern rebels and the Ukraine to swap prisoners, a pleasant Xmas gift for many families on both sides.

The exchange took place near the rebel-held city of Donetsk. According to the BBC the Ukraine exchanged 222 prisoners held by them for 150 soldiers held by the rebels. The Russian news agency Ria-Novosti said that the exchange took place 35 km or 22 miles north of the city of Donetsk. However, there were also some photos taken of Ukrainian soldiers in Luhansk where their mothers had come to claim them. They were apparently three who were released this Friday.

In spite of the agreement on the prisoner exchange, the talks in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, broke up back on Wednesday and no date was set for their continuation. The meeting was among the Ukraine, Russia, the rebels, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe(OSCE). Ukr and lasted for five hours. Among the costs of the rebellion so far are 4,707 killed, including 36 children. Over ten thousand have been wounded. Over half a million are internally displaced and even more are refugees outside the Ukraine.

A truce was announced originally in September, but has been broken numerous times with more than 1300 killed since then. However, since prime minister Petro Poroshenko announced a Day of Silence in early December, conflict has been much reduced even though both sides claim the other has broken the truce. The Ukrainian government accuses Russia of actively supporting the rebels. While Russia denies this it does admit that some members of its regular forces are fighting in the Ukraine as volunteers. There is evidence that Russia is also providing supplies and equipment for the rebels.

Although no final peace deal has been reached, Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the rebel group, told Interfax news on December 25th there would be more talks in the coming days though he did not give a date for resumption of the talks. The parties failed to agree to meet on Friday.

Poll predicts Petro Porsohenko to win Ukraine presidential elections

New elections in the Ukraine are set for October 26. The bloc that supports President Petro Poroshenko appears to be heading for a big win according to a new poll by the GfK research group on Friday.

Poroshenko a billionaire oligarch, the chocolate king, was easily elected last May after the overthrow of his predecessor Viktor Yanukovych. His re-election will provide even more legitimacy to his plans to link more closely with the West but also his signing of the peace agreement in Minsk to give more autonomy to eastern regions held now by pro-Russian rebels.
 The poll predicts that Poroshenko's bloc would win 29.9 percent of the vote with the nearest rival being the party of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko at just 8.7 percent. Third place was the Radical Party led by the populist Oleh Lyashko with 7.6 percent. The poll shows that those associated with the party of former President Yanukovich will lose their seats even though they had held on to them during the previous election. His Regions Party appears to be a spent force in Ukrainian politics. The poll was only about the 225 of 450 seats which are elected through party lists. There are another 225 seats elected through a first-past-the post system. Many of these "single-mandate deputies" waged campaigns funded by business interests and in the past often supported Yanukovich but with the situation radically altered it is difficult to predict which if any bloc they will support this time around.
The poll showed that about five political groups were likely to receive enough votes to enter parliament. The government has been attempting to ban the Ukrainian Communist party. The Ukrainian Justice Ministry argued in court that the party should be banned because it has supported pro-Russian rebels fighting government forces in the east Ukraine. Poroshenko said that parties should be banned "by means of elections" rather than a straightforward ban through laws or court decisions.The Communist Party came in fifth at the 2012 parliamentary election receiving about 13 percent of the vote. There have been some violations of the Minsk agreement including casualties in Donetsk but on the whole so far the agreement has been observed for the most part.