Turkey with rebel allies prepare for offensive against Kurds in Syria

About 20,000 members of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with Turkish troops who support them are reported to be massing for a new military operation in the Afrin region of northwestern Syria.

The region is under control of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) according to the Turkish newspaper Sabah. The YPG are regarded as a terrorist group by Turkey but at key allies in the battle against the Islamic State by the United States. The first targets of the operation are said to be the town of Tall Rigat and the nearby Minaq airbase the newspaper claims. The offensive is to be launched from Idlib westward and Azaz, Kaljibrin and Marea eastward. Turkey is said to be consulting with Moscow on the operation. On Sunday Turkish President Recep Tayyip is to hold talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The Afrin area is located in the province of Aleppo and belongs to what the Kurds consider the autonomous area of Rojava in the north of Syria. Back in late August of 2016 Turkish forces together with their Free Syrian Army with US-led coalition air support cleared out the Islamic State from the town of Jarabulus on the border and also from the surrounding areas. The operation was called the Euphrates Shield. Both the Kurds and the Assad regime were critical of the operation. After Jarabulus was retaken the offensive continued to the southwest. The city of al-Bab was taken. The campaign ended March 29 and the goals of the operation were said to be met.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Veysi Kaynak said: "Afrin needs to be cleared of terrorists with regard to both Turkey's security and the region's security. Turkey is continuing to work with its counterparts to achieve this end. Otherwise nobody can guarantee the security of Azaz, Mare, al-Bab and Idlib. Turkey's diplomatic efforts are continuing to this end." The terrorists in this case are the YPG not the Islamic State. The Turks are said to have moved long-range artillery into the region.

A Syrian Kurdish YPG commander, Sipan Hemo, claims that they want to "liberate" the area between Azaz and Jarablus that is held by the FSA backed by Turkish troops. Hemo did not give any details of the YPG plan or say when it would begin. Although the Turkey-backed rebels seized the area from the Islamic State Hemo said he regarded Turkey as an occupying force in the area. Hemo's statement was distributed on a social network feed by Naser Manour a senior official in the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The YPG is a key component of the SDF. There was already an exchange of fire between Turkey and the YPG near Azaz last Tuesday, Turkey claims it is sending more troops, vehicles and equipment into the area in preparation for its own offensive. Kurdish officials warn that any attack on the area by the Turks and its allies will distract from their offensive against Raqqa still held mostly by the Islamic State.

Free Syrian Army facing hard times and desertions

Those groups loosely linked together as part of the Free Syrian Army(FSA) are experiencing high levels of desertion and low morale due to low pay and poor conditions.

 

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An article in Al Jazeera describes the situation of five members of a single family who had all joined the FSA. The family member interviewed, Mohammad Matoh, deserted, two brothers went to Turkey after being injured, while two remained in the FSA. Mohammad deserted because of low pay that started at $36 a month. Another friend also left because of the salary, which at best reached $95 a month. Mohammad now works in a fast food restaurant in Aleppo. Another field commander said not only were salaries low but that sometimes they were unpaid because financial support was lacking. In contrast, foreign fighters reportedly receive salaries up to $1,000 a month for serving the Islamic State.

The original FSA began in August of 2011 at the beginning of the Syrian war and was comprised mostly of defectors from the Syrian army. Al Jazeera claims the group is moderate compared with Islamist rebel groups that emerged later and refused to serve under the FSA. The description of "moderate" is relative. Overall in comparison to Islamist Groups such as the Islamic Front that rejects the FSA and its political associate the National Coalition of Syrian and Revolutionary and Opposition Forces perhaps the description makes some sense. However, in 2013 U.S. senior military officials anonymously reported that the Pentagon estimated that the number of extremist Islamist groups in the FSA was over 50 percent and growing. One article estimates the present strength of the FSA is about 35,000 fighters, split up into almost 2,000 smaller factions. Some may be quite secular but others are extremist themselves both in ideology and often in action as shown in the appended video. Around Aleppo, the FSA units work closely with the Al-Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front. The FSA members, whether moderate or not, were all appalled when the U.S. not only bombed IS positions in Syria but the Nusra Front locations around Aleppo, with fighters crucial in the battle against the Assad regime positions there.

After the Islamic State captured large sections of Syria, U.S. policy concentrated on fighting IS rather than relying on the FSA, which was primarily interested in defeating Assad. A new program funded to the tune of $500 million was to train vetted moderate rebels outside of Syria and then send them back, but to exclusively fight the Islamic State. The program was a disaster with the two small groups that did enter Syria as part of the half-billion-dollar program resulting only in radical rebels gaining more U.S. equipment. The first batch were quickly run out of their base leaving their equipment behind. The second group simply surrendered their equipment on entering Syria. The Pentagon decided to ditch the program altogether and provide support and some training to already existing rebel groups committed to fighting the Islamic State theSyrian Democratic Forces.The group includes Kurds, Arabs and others fighting the Islamic State. The group was formally established only on October 11, 2015 and does not include the FSA.

The recent Russia bombing in Syria has been against some of the FSA groups and other rebels as well as the Islamic State and no doubt has helped to weaken the FSA further. Some commentators, such as Robert Fisk who writes for the Guardian and Independent go so far as to say that there is no Free Syrian Army. Rami Jarrah also claimed:'There is no such thing as the Free Syrian Army, people still use the term in Syria to make it seem like the rebels have some sort of structure. But there really isn’t." Irish journalist, Patrick Cockburn, stated in October of this year that "The Free Syrian Army was always a mosaic of fractions and is now largely ineffectual." Whatever its status, the Free Syrian Army seems to be declining in importance in the Syrian conflict and struggling to retain fighters within the loose alliance.

Commander of IS forces in Syria once worked under US-backed Free Syrian Army

While the U.S. emphasizes that it does not support radical jihadists in Syria, it actually supported a group of Chechen jihadists led by Omar al-Shishani or Tarkhan Tayumurazovich Batirashvili, who now commands the Islamic State forces in Syria.

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Abu Omar al-Shishani was first trained by the U.S. as part of an elite Georgian army unit and served until 2006. He was involved in the Georgian conflict with Russia.

Al-Shishani later moved from Georgia and ended up in Syria with a group of Chechen jihadists fighting against the Assad regime. In August 2013 Al Shishani and his jihadist group were instrumental in capturing the Menagh air base that had resisted rebel attacks for 10 months previously:This week, the jihadist group Jaish al-Muhajireen wal Ansar, or the Army of Emigrants and Supporters, led by a fighter from the Caucasus known as Abu Omar al-Shesheni — the Chechen — worked with Free Syrian Army battalions to take the Menagh air base in Aleppo Province after 10 months of trying.Two of his jihadist members drove a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device on a suicide mission into the base killing many of the remaining defenders.

At the time of this attack, the Revolutionary Council of Aleppo was the command structure officially sanctioned and supported by the US and UK. The Council was headed by Free Syrian Army Colonel Abdul Jabbar al-Okadi described by the press as the main recipient of western aid. After the Menagh Base was taken, Colonel al-Okadi appeared in a video alongside Abu Jandal a leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria(ISIS):The group singled out for praise in the video, Jaish al-Muhajireen wal Ansar, was precisely Omar Shishani’s own brutal Chechen group (“Army of Emigrants and Helpers”) which turned the tide of the battle. Most significant about FSA Col. Okaidi himself, clearly the operational head of this jihadi “basketball team,” was that he had been paid a personal visit by his State Department patron, Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, just months prior to the final victory at Menagh.

This shows at one time that the FSA and the Islamic State fought alongside each other under command of the US-supported FSA.

Ford admitted that rebels funded by the U.S. State Department included ISIS. He told a McClatchy reporter he had called Oakaidi to tell him cooperation with Shishani and his jihadists was "extremely unhelpful, extra unhelpful." What it shows is that even rebels supported by the U.S. have a quite different agenda than the U.S. They care less about how radical the groups are they ally with as long as they are helpful in fighting Assad. Rebels of every stripe were horrified and angered when the U.S. bombed the Al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. The only reason rebels fight the Islamic State is that IS has attacked them.

You would think that Okaidi's relationship with the U.S. would end with the IS episode but in July 2015 Okaidi was interviewed on CNN by Christiane Amanpour appealing for a US no-fly zone in Syria to support moderate rebels. In a recent poll by ORB international 82 percent of Syrians blamed the U.S. for the growth of ISIS. This would not be the first time the U.S. had encouraged jihadists only to suffer blowback. The CIA funded jihadists in their successful campaign against the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan including one well-known jihadist by the name of Osama Bin Laden. As with Bin Laden, Shishani became a wanted terrorist.

Shishani was added to the US Treasury Department's list of Specially Designated Global terrorists on September 24th 2014. On May 5 2015 the U.S. State Department Rewards for Justice Program announced that a reward of up to US $5 million is offered for information that could lead to his capture. The appended video purports to show an attack by the FSA on the Islamic State led by an Al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front commander just in August.

Obama may have trouble finding his moderate Syrian rebels to train and arm

Obama's strategy for battling the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq envisions using proxy troops on the ground rather than US forces. In Iraq there are the Kurdish peshmerga and Iraqi forces.

Kurdish forces will also fight against the Islamic State in Syria. Obama intends to spend a half billion dollars to arm and train "moderate" rebels to carry out attacks against the Islamic State as well. After the House approved the bill it passed the Senate by a vote of 78-22. The vote was on a combined bill to fund the government and prevent a shutdown and this makes it unreliable as a measure of support for Obama's mission. However, many analysts doubt Obama will be able to find many rebels who will share the Obama vision of what should happen in Iraq.
 Even moderate rebels believe the first order of business should be defeating the Assad regime rather than fighting against the Islamic State. Moderate rebels were incensed that US bombing hit not only the Islamic State but also the Al Nusra Front an Al-Qaeda approved group that is cooperating with other rebels against the Assad regime. Few of the groups operating on the ground against Assad espouse liberal democratic values, but the Free Syrian Army has been considered a moderate group — at least in that the umbrella group is not explicitly fighting for an Islamist type state as are the Islamic Front, one of the larger rebel groups. However, as this Al Jazeera article points out, there are fatal flaws with the FSA: The FSA is currently the weakest force on the ground in Syria, a result not only of inadequate foreign backing compared with that of rival Islamist and extremist factions, but of its own internal divisions, byzantine leadership structure (based in Turkey) and rampant corruption. President Obama himself recently admitted it was a “fantasy” to believe a bunch of “doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth” ever had a chance of overthrowing the Moscow-backed regime of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad by themselves.
The FSA is an umbrella group composed of small sub-groups across Syria who fight under the FSA banner, but there is no clear chain of command nor cohesive ideology that unites them. The FSA continually loses fighters to other better-funded Islamist groups and even the Al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat Al Nusra and the Islamic State. When the FSA does take territory from Assad, it is usually through cooperation with more radical groups. Even when it has taken territory it often loses it, as happened in the north when the Islamic State or ISIL as it then was, simply took the area from the FSA.. Many analysts believe that Obama is interested only in ensuring that the rebel forces remain strong enough to force Assad to the bargaining table but not strong enough to defeat his forces.
 Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma said: “Frankly we’ve seen too many failed states fill up with jihadist militias. The FSA wouldn’t bring unified rule in Syria, they would bring Somalia, just like you’ve already got in the north.” However defenders of the FSA and the western-backed political group the Syrian National Coalition believe that better arms and training would solve the defection problems of the FSA and make it a stronger fighting force. Critics point out that the $500 million set aside for training and equipping moderate rebels is nowhere near what is thought to be required to combat Assad effectively. The US wants these rebels to fight the Islamic State first but even most members of the FSA oppose that. Abelnasr Farzat, a top FSA commander in the Aleppo area until last year but now based in Turkey said: “We must first eliminate the root cause of terrorism, and then the consequences of terrorism." While the US wants peace talks and political negotiations to end the conflict, very few FSA fighters would agree to this.
The US had a decade to train and arm the Iraqi army but the resulting forces were not up to combating determined Islamic State fighters. Even some US lawmakers opposed Obama's plans. Rand Paul, a Republican Senator from Kentucky said: "Intervention that destabilizes the Middle East is a mistake. And yet, here we are again, wading into a civil war." Senator Mark Begich, a Democrat from Alabama, also disagreed with Obama's policy and suggested that Arab countries should be leading the way in fighting the Islamic State. Begich nevertheless voted for the bill since he wanted to ensure that the government was funded.
 The proposal to choose moderate rebels and then arm and train them inspired the Borowitz Report in the New Yorker to create an application form to be submitted in order to receive weapons from the US that consists of a series of questions. Here is one:
  If I were given a highly lethal automatic weapon by the United States, I would: A) Only kill exactly the people that the United States wanted me to kill B) Try to kill the right people, with the caveat that I have never used an automatic weapon before C) Kill people only after submitting them to a rigorous vetting process D) Immediately let the weapon fall into the wrong hands
Obama's plans may also be foiled by rebels deciding to agree not to fight radical Islamists even the Islamic State as long as they join in fighting the Assad regime. There are reports of a truce being negotiated in at least one area already. After the US bombed not only the Islamic State but Al Nusra as well, there were many demonstrations not just in support of Al Nusra, the Al Qaeda-linked group that cooperates with the rebels but the Islamic State as well. An article in CounterPunch even suggests that the none of the groups of rebels in series of any significant size are not moderate, that there really are no moderate rebels.

Moderate Syrian rebels of FSA refuse to join Obama coalition to fight the Islamic State

The Free Syrian Army(FSA) that the US classifies as moderate Syrian rebels has announced that it will not join the US anti-Islamic State coalition.

The head of the western-backed Free Syrian Army, Colonel Riad Assad, the leader of the FSA also said that his group would not participate in attacks against the Islamic State. Assad is not related to the Syrian president Bashar Assad. The Colonel's main objection to the coalition is that it does not have as its primary goal regime change to replace president Bashar Assad and his government. Colonel Assad said: "If they want to see the Free Syrian Army on their side, they should give assurances on toppling the Assad regime and on a plan including revolutionary principles."
 The statement by the Colonel is in contrast to an earlier statement by the western-backed political group, the Syrian National Coalition associated with the FSA and recognized by some countries, including many Arab states, as representing the Syrian people. The group is not recognized by many rebel groups however as representing them including the Islamic Front. The Syrian National Council a sizable group within the Coalition withdrew after the Coalition attended the Geneva Peace Talks with the Assad government. The Coalition claimed that it was willing to work with the coalition to fight the Islamic State. Earlier, a ceasefire had been announced in Damascus between a rebel group, the Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF) and Islamic State fighters in the Damascus area. The Islamic State could very well agree not to target rebel forces in many areas in return for not being attacked themselves, and launching a coordinated effort against the Assad regime. Up to now there have been numerous clashes between Islamic State fighters and other rebels. A ceasefire with other rebels could very well foil completely the US aim of using rebels as proxy forces to defeat the Islamic State.
However, there are reports that the SRF agreement had been breached by the Islamic State. There are other reports of alliances between moderates and radical groups on the Lebanon border. The situation is certainly confusing with conflicting reports.
The National Coalition reaffirmed that it would not cooperate with Israel in any fight against the Islamic State. The group disowned Kamel Lubnani for traveling to Israel to attend a counter-terrorism conference. Israel is worried that Assad forces on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights have lost control to radical rebel groups including the Al-Nusra front linked to Al Qaeda. Obama's stated intention is to further train and equip moderate Syrian rebels to attack the Islamic State. The rebels on the ground in Syria have other views as to what they will do with their training and weapons.
Even now some of the anti-tank weapons provided to moderate rebels turned up in the hands of the Islamic State. The FSA has also experienced defections not only to the larger Islamic Front but also to Al-Nusra Front and even the Islamic State itself. What is certain in all of this is that there will be more killing and that arms manufacturers will see increasing demand for their products. The complexity of the situation completely eludes some US politicians as is illustrated by the appended video from the Young Turks.The level of fearful rhetoric is mind-boggling.

Islamic State has many US weapons including some that were sent to Syrian moderate rebels

Many weapons used by the Islamic State were seized as they captured bases in Iraq from Iraqi forces. However, the group also has US weapons that appear to have been given originally to moderate Syrian rebels linked to the Free Syrian Army.
  Obama has always been hesitant to send many weapons to the rebels of the Free Syrian Army fearing that they might end up in the hands of militants. The western-supported rebels have constantly complained they are not as well-armed as more militant groups. However, some US weapons provided to moderate rebels have ended up in the hands of the Islamic State in any event.
Some Islamic State US weapons may have been obtained when they took over territory controlled by the FSA but some also could have been US weapons provided by Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia to the Islamic Front. The Islamic State has been in constant conflict with them as well.
 Researchers with a group called Conflictarm embedded with Kurdish forces both in Syria and Iraq during a ten day period in July were allowed to catalog Islamic State weapons captured after clashes. Not surprisingly the weapons were manufactured in a number of countries: Along with the anti-tank weapons, manufactured in the former Yugoslavia, researchers documented a handful of U.S. M16A4 rifles, two Chinese Type 80 machine guns, a Croatian sniper rifle, a 9mm Glock pistol and various Soviet-era small arms. The Islamic State has also captured some territory and won out in some battles with Assad forces where it captured Soviet small arms. Some of these items could have been bought on the black market. It is also quite possible that some of the middle men ferrying weapons from the west and Gulf States to rebel groups are pocketing extra money by selling some of them to radical groups such as ISIS.
 Researchers found that anti-tank weapons used by the Islamic State had previously been sent to Syrian rebels. A number of weapons had serial numbers welded over in an attempt to foil any attempts to trace them back to their source. This may indicate the weapons came through a third party trying to mask the source of the weapons. Syria rebel factions who receive US arms have denied that they have provided any arms to ISIS. They insist that the overwhelming majority of the US aid is used by the Free Syrian Army to fight Assad forces. This may very well be true, but the FSA is an umbrella group and probably contains some not above lining their own pockets by selling some of the US arms to the highest bidder.
 Obama is asking the US Congress to greatly increase funding to supply the rebels with more arms and other support. He intends to use the rebels as proxy forces to attack the Islamic State as Kurdish peshmerga and Iraq security forces are being used in Iraq. In both countries any Islamic State successes will gain them more US weapons:
According to one White House aide, the president is seeking more aid for the rebels so they could be the ground troops in place to support potential U.S. airstrikes against ISIS. The Obama administration already is pursuing a similar strategy in Iraq, where U.S. airstrikes are backed by Iraqi security forces on the ground -- as opposed to U.S. ground troops
 In another issue involving moderate Syrian rebels, a spokesperson for the family of beheaded journalist Steven Sotloff claims that he was actually sold by them to the Islamic State or ISIS: Sotloff family spokesman Barak Barfi, a foreign policy research fellow at the New American Foundation, made the startling claim in an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper.“We believe that these so-called moderate rebels that people want our administration to support, one of them sold him probably for something between $25,000 and $50,000 to ISIS and that was the reason he was captured.".

Suicide attack claims key Syrian rebel leader

Hassan Assoud who led the Ahrar al-Sham brigade was killed along with others at a meeting of members of the large umbrella organization the Islamic Front. The meeting was called to discuss strategy to fight the radical Islamic State.

The Islamic Front is a merger of seven different rebel groups formed on 22 November 2013. It is not part of the western-backed Free Syrian Army(FSA) but cooperates with it in fighting both Assad and ISIS now called the Islamic State. Ahmad Musa a member of the group's political bureau claimed that the Syrian people wanted a revolution "not politics and foreign agendas". Many believe the group is funded by Saudi Arabia.
 Ahrar al-Sham, which Assoud led, is one of the major groups of the Front with 10 to 20 thousand fighters as of July last year. In February of this year another top commander Abu al-Suri was assassinated in a suicide bombing. Other important figures were killed in the attack including two military field commanders and the head of the Iman brigade. The death toll in total was said to be between 20 to 45.
In a December interview with Al Jazeera, Assoud dismissed any idea of participating in the Geneva talks to broker peace that included the western-supported Syrian National Coalition. He said at the time: "We see Geneva as a tool of manipulation - to derail the Syrian revolution away from its goals and objectives ... Whatever outcome the conference may yield, will be binding on the Syrian National Coalition only.For us, we will continue to fight for our revolution until we restore our rights."
 The casualty figures from the attack vary as is often the case: The Edlib News Network said that over 40 people were killed, including four other leaders of Ahrar al-Sham. The Observatory said "tens" people were killed but did not provide a specific number. Differing casualty figures are routine immediately after attacks in Syria. The Observatory is the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights based in the UK.
Ahrar al-Sham has a very conservative interpretation of Islam along the lines of that prevalent in Saudi Arabia. However there are reports that funding has been drying up of late as some donors have become wary of promoting more radical jihadists for fear that they might return home to carry out jihad there against the government. Ahrar al-Sham blames the Islamic State that has adopted an even more extreme jihadist ideology for the suicide attack. The attack is a serious blow to the rebel opposition and is likely to weaken them further.

Syrian rebels clash with Lebanese army near Lebanon border

Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels attacked a Lebanese military post near the Syrian border. After a brief gun battle the FSA rebels fled into the mountains. The Lebanese military has sent reinforcements to the area.

A statement from the Lebanese Army said that the attack was the second time in less than a week that a Free Syrian Army unit had entered Lebanese territory. There were no casualties reported in the latest clash. The Lebanese Army has sent units into the mountainous area to track down the rebels.

The Syrian rebels cross into Lebanon to avoid the Syrian military. The Syrian military so far has not crossed the border in pursuit, no doubt fearing an international incident. Speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, said he supported moves by the Lebanese Army after the attack on the weekend in the north east by the border with Syria.

In newspaper interviews Berri said:

“We have said it over and over again... the army is a red line. Let it fulfill its tasks, it is just carrying out its responsibilities to the fullest [of its capabilities]."

Many Sunni Muslims in Lebanon are supporters of the rebels while Hezbollah supports the Assad regime. The conflict has at times spilled over into Lebanon.

Some time ago there were clashes in Tripoli between those supporting and those opposed to the Assad regime. In the resulting violence 17 people were killed before a truce was established. Those supporting the rebels in Lebanon opposed the move of the Lebanese army to pursue the rebels who had come across the border. Berri said of those opposing the move:

“Such voices will not affect the army’s national role which we fervently support. The army is above such statements anyways."

Lebanon has not only been impacted by an inflow of refugees and division within the country but has also faced a wave of criminal activity including kidnappings. The appended video shows some of the background of the situation in Syria. Many fear that the Syrian conflict could serve to reignite civil war in Lebanon..