Women and the Muslim Brotherhood make gains in Jordan elections

Women took 20 out of the 130 seats in the Jordanian parliament. The number of seats in the parliament had been reduced from 150 to 130 but women won two more seats than in the much larger parliament.

There were 252 female candidates the most in Jordan's history. Asma Khamer, a former Jordanian justice minister said: “It’s a sign of growing acceptance among the public. People are now ready to see women’s names and photographs on political campaign posters around the country.”

The Muslim Brotherhood ended a decades-long boycott of elections that skews representation in favor of thinly populated rural areas dominated by tribal politics as compared to the cities where the Brotherhood is much stronger. Parties are not allowed in Jordan based on religion. The Brotherhood has joined with Christians and also prominent national figures to create the National Coalition for Reform (NCR). The Brotherhood is the main group in the coalition. Preliminary results show that the NCR won at least 16 seats. A prominent Brotherhood leader said the NCR would seek alliances with other groups in an attempt to form an effective opposition.

As Wikipedia notes, the Jordanian political system is dominated by King Abdullah II: Jordan is a constitutional monarchy, but the King holds wide executive and legislative powers. He serves as Head of State and Commander-in-Chief and appoints the prime minister and heads of security directorates. The prime minister is free to choose his own cabinet and regional governors. However, the king may dissolve parliament and dismiss the government.For years, the king has faced little opposition from a parliament dominated by pro-government leaders, businessmen and ex-security officials often elected on the basis of promises that address local issues.

Even though the parliament will not have power to block legislation or cabinet appointments, there would be livelier debate rather than a mostly rubber-stamp parliament as in the past. Repressive legislation has been passed with little opposition. The NCR is likely to press for more power for the legislature and a more representative system.

The turnout was poor with only 37 percent turnout. Experts say the low turnout is the result of the lack of political power that the parliament has. International observers praised Jordan for holding relatively well-administered elections. However, the EU chief observer, Jo Leinen said: "There is no equality of the vote. Under the current districting, large urban areas are under-represented, and sparsely populated or rural areas are considerably over-represented."

Ayoub Alnmour and election analyst said: “In Jordan, parliament doesn’t have sufficient constitutional authority to prove itself as a change-maker at a policy level, which is unfortunate. It is more focused on tribal representation, local services and job opportunities for family members. For me, the major short-term impact this election is bringing isn’t political. It’s social.”

Jordan is a key ally of many Western countries. It has a huge problem dealing with the flood of refugees from the war in nearby Syria and Iraq.

According to a report in the Middle East Eye the Brotherhood won nearly a quarter of the votes but just 15 seats according to electoral commission results. Ali al-Sukkar, an electoral spokesperson for the Brotherhood said that this showed the "elections law is unfair and like nothing anywhere in the world." Nevertheless, Zaki Inshid, a senior Brotherhood leader, said that "although these elections were not free from some violations, they did constitute a step forward." Although the new system was in part designed to meet demands of the Brotherhood, the results were still quite skewed with the Brotherhood getting 24 percent of the vote but only 12 percent of the seats. Parties on the left were unable to gain a single seat. Ahmad Nawfal, a professor of politics at the University of Jordan said the election proved that all government attempts to weaken the Brotherhood had failed while other factions were unable to elect members.

Three Al Jazeera journalists found guilty and sentenced to 3 years at retrial in Egypt

Three al-Jazeera journalists convicted of "spreading false news" have been sentenced to three years in prison at their retrial in Cairo. One journalist, Baher Mohamed was given an extra six months.

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The three were Mohamed Fahmy a Canadian, Egyptian Baher Mohamed, and Australian Peter Greste. Fahmy and Mohamed were led away from the court back to prison after sentencing. The third journalist, Australian Peter Greste, was deported back to Australia earlier in the year but nevertheless was put on trial again in absentia. Greste and Fahmy had been originally sentenced to seven years and Mohamed to ten in July of 2014. These convictions were overturned in January of this year. The three are all accused of aiding the Muslim Brotherhood, the party of former elected Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi. The party is now banned as a terrorist group and supporting them is a crime. All three deny the charges and claim they were simply doing their job a reporters. The lawyers for the three journalists are expected to appeal the decision.

Lyle Doucet of the BBC said the verdict came as a shock in the room filled with Egyptian and foreign journalists. Although a guilty verdict was still expected, many thought that they would be given a lesser sentence and allowed to go free given that they had already served almost a year in prison before being freed pending this trial. Canada had hoped that Fahmy would have been deported as was the Australian journalist. Fahmy had given up his Egyptian citizenship in order to faciliate such a move. However, president el-Sisi said he could not interfere with the judicial process. Of course he had already done so in deporting Greste. This obviously annoyed the judiciary who tried Greste in absentia during this retrial.

Greste tweeted that he was "shocked" and "outraged" by the verdict and described it as "yet another deliberate attack on press freedom".When the guilty verdict was read out, Mohamed Fahmy's wife, Marwa Omara, began to sob. Her ordeal had now lasted 608 days. Fahmy's lawyer,Amal Clooney, said: "The verdict today sends a very dangerous message in Egypt, It sends a message that journalists can be locked up for simply doing their job, for telling the truth and reporting the news."Clooney asked president el-Sisi to pardon the three journalists. She said that she would also push to have Fahmy deported to Canada. Now that the trial is over el-Sisi would not be interfering in the ongoing judicial process were he to do so. However, he may wish to show that he will not be pushed around by foreigners. He may regret having deported the Australian journalist.

Given that Egypt has had several mass trials at which hundreds of those opposing his regime, most supporters of former president Morsi, have been condemned to death, el-Sisi probably worries little about the credibility of his regime and its judiciary. He knows that the US and Russia will continue to send him arms and other aid. Just recently Egypt has passed an even more stringent law as part of its anti-terror legislation: A new anti-terrorism law in Egypt will make publishing news that contradicts the official version of events in terrorism-related cases a crime punishable by prison sentences, a setback for the freedom of the press, according to the local journalists union.

Evidence during the trial showed that the journalists had not been licensed. Al Jazeera answers questions about this and other aspects of the trial.

Egyptian counter-terror violence in Sinai generates more terrorist violence

Egyptian President Abdul el-Sissi has used ever more violent means to try and counter the violence in the Sinai Peninsula. In spite of concerted efforts to stop the insurgents there was a devastating series of attacks on January 29.

One source put the casualties from the attack at 31 people and another source at least 26. The Egyptian army had begun to feel confident that a strong military response to earlier attacks had decisively weakened the insurgency. Last October, the group then called Ansar Beit al-Maqdis launched an attack on a military checkpoint that killed 31 and wounded many more. The Egyptian government blamed "foreigners" for the attack. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, originally inspired by Al Qaeda, has recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and rebranded itself as the Sinai Province of the Islamic State. Egyptian president Abdel el-Sissi also blamed the Muslim Brotherhood for the recent attack, claiming it had a role in the operation. Since overthrowing the former president Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Brotherhood, el-Sissi has constantly blamed the group for terrorist activity. The Brotherhood is now designated a terrorist organization in Egypt. 

El-Sissi has used Sinai terrorist activity as an excuse to crack down on dissent elsewhere in Egypt. The Egyptian government responded to the October attacks by violence against Sinai inhabitants, all in the name of fighting terror. In order to create a buffer zone between Egypt and the Gaza Strip border, the Egyptian government simply ejected thousands of residents from their homes and blew them up. One resident of the Sinai, Abu Musallam, vented his anger: "We are staying here. They bomb the house; we build a hut. They burn the hut; we build another hut. They kill; we give birth. I urge the army to treat us like we treated them in 1967. We gave them our clothes to hide them from the Israelis. We serviced them. We respected them, and we helped them flee. Is this how they pay us back?" 

 Aaron Reese, of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, said that the Egyptian Army was not about to engage in urban warfare with insurgents. They prefer to use tanks and helicopter gunships against targets even though individual militants blend in with the local population. Egyptian security and social policies in the Sinai see the area as a threat rather than as an opportunity to develop the area and gain the support of the local population. Residents are seen as potential informants, terrorists, spies, or smugglers. Egyptian policies have turned many exactly in those directions making it possible for militants to survive in spite of the constant attacks of the Egyptian military: Those policies were formulated and executed by security and military bureaucracies - principally the State Security Investigations (SSI, now renamed the National Security Apparatus), the General Intelligence Apparatus (GIA) and the Military Intelligence Apparatus (MIS) - without any review or oversight from elected or judicial bodies or independent experts. 

In 2012 even el-Sissi, then defense minister, warned his officers against these policies since they would "create an internal enemy with a vendetta against us". Perhaps now he is president he finds the violence useful as a justification for his repressive policies against any and all opponents. Continued insurgent violence shows a strong government supported by a strong military is necessary in Egypt. As long as Egypt fights the war on terror, helps control Hamas, and keeps the peace with Israel, the west will continue to send billions in military aid.

Egypt releases one journalist but 183 people sentenced to death

Egypt has released one Al Jazeera journalist, Australian Peter Greste, who had been in a Cairo prison for 400 days. Two other Al Jazeera journalists remain in prison.

Greste was released by Egyptian authorities unconditionally according to Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop. Canadian Egyptian journalist Mohamed Fahmy was still imprisoned yesterday but his release is expected at any time. His UK colleague Sue Turton reported to the Star newspaper: “It does look like it’s really imminent. I know we’ve been saying that for the last 24 hours.” The Canadian Foreign Affairs minister, John Baird, who had been pressing Egyptian authorities for Fahmy's release announced his resignation yesterday. Al Jazeera claims its three journalists were wrongly convicted back in 2013 under Egypt's anti-terrorism laws. Among the charges was spreading lies to help the Muslim Brotherhood, designated as a terrorist organization in Egypt. The regime even promoted the trial: Ahead of the trial the prosecution aired a 22-minute video on a pro-regime network of the what they described as the lair of the "Marriott Cell" – the hotel where the Al Jazeera reporters were staying when they were arrested on charges of belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood and abetting terrorism. To an ominous soundtrack – the music was stolen from the comic book movie "Thor: The Dark World" – the camera pans over computers, cameras, notebooks, and ethernet cable. The short film was designed to feed the xenophobic and anti-Muslim Brotherhood hysteria of post-coup Egypt. While both Fahmy and Greste have dual citizenship the third journalist, Baher Mohamed, has only Egyptian citizenship. Greste said that his release was "a really big step forward" for Egypt and he hoped that his colleagues would also be released.

Response to the news was muted in Egypt where press freedom has been restricted under President el-Sisi. Julie Posetti on Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) said that under new legislation passed by the Abbott government, journalists could also risk imprisonment for reporting on terrorism: "While the government is celebrating the release of journalist Peter Greste, it's still responsible for legislation that represents a chilling attack on media freedom in our own country." In Canada, the Harper government also passed legislation that will make it a crime to support terrorism. Conceivably, this legislation could also be used against journalists. 

 However, imprisoning journalists may be a high profile sign of Egypt's perverted justice system but the worst injustices have been mass trials of protesters and imposition of hundreds of death sentences, as well as killing of hundreds of protesters in earlier crackdowns on protests against the military coup. Even as Greste was released an Egyptian court sentenced another 183 supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood to death for their role in protests after the present president el-Sisi mounted a military coup that overthrew the elected government of Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. In early 2014 there were mass show trials in which more than 2,100 protesters were sentenced to death. One trial alone in April of 2014 recommended the death sentence for 683 people including the leader of the Brotherhood Mohammed Badie. President Obama has requested $1.3 billion for Egypt's military in the next budget.

Egyptian government continues repression and suppression of dissent.

Egypt under President Abdul al-Sisi is repressing dissent of all kinds. In the latest move Egyptian State Radio banned a popular singer Hamza Namira from broadcasting since some of his songs criticize authorities.

Namira gained fame during the uprising in Tahrir square with songs of hope and freedom three years ago. Protesters managed to oust the regime of Hosni Mubarak with the help of the army. Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was eventually elected president but after large demonstrations against his government was overthrown in a move led by Al-Sisi who was then army chief. Almost a year later Al-Sisi was elected president with strong support even from many who had been part of the original revolution. Al-Sisi rode a wave of anti-Islamist feeling and was able to successfully and brutally repress protesters supporting Morsi, killing hundreds or more in a bloody crackdown. Now even protest songs are not allowed.
 Human rights activists claim that the move to ban Namira is part of a campaign by the government to stop any dissent. Everyone is to sing the praises of President Al-Sisi according to human rights activists. State radio's chairman, Abdel Rahman Rashad, told the BBC that a review had found the performer was not approved for broadcast. .Rashad said that any performer who criticizes authorities should not be allowed to broadcast. All performers require approval before being allowed to broadcast.
 Another performer, actor Khaled Naga has been accused of treason for criticising Al-Sisi. He is being prosecuted by a lawyer for "disturbing national security". In another move, the police briefly detained human rights activist Mahienour el-Masry in Alexandria along with 4 other people including her lawyer. They were picked up long after a protest had ended. El-Masry had just recently been released from prison. After questioning about the protest, they were released.
In Cairo, police used tear gas to disperse demonstrators protesting in memory of a clash in November 2011 the Mohammed Mahmoud Battle that resulted in the death of almost 50 demonstrators. In this demonstration mostly by non-Islamists there were no deaths but at least 43 protesters were arrested. All protests are banned without prior police approval and El-Masry was convicted under the ban and sentenced to six months in prison but was released this September pending appeal of her conviction. El-Masry and dozens of other prisoners mounted a hunger strike to protest their poor treatment and the lack of due process.
 The Egyptian state news agency reports that prosecutors are asking for the death sentence for former president Mohammed Morsi. He along with Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Badie and 34 others are being tried on espionage charges. Morsi has not recognized the jurisdiction of the court but has asked to defend himself. The case resumes on November 26.

Ultra-conservative Egyptian cleric defends sexual attacks on female protesters

Egypt is in turmoil today after a hard-line Muslim cleric on an Egyptian TV station justified sexual assaults against women protesters. Other ultra-conservatives issued fatwas to kill opposition leaders.

Cleric Ahmed Mohammed Abdullah on his TV show claimed that attacking women was not a "red line" as some opposition members claim. He asked rhetorically: “Does that apply to these naked women? Nine out of 10 of them are Crusaders (Christians) and the rest are ... widows with no one to rein them in to ensure they remain modest."The cleric continued with a classic blame the victim rant:“They are going there to get raped ....these are devils named women ... They speak with no femininity, no morals, no fear ... Learn from Muslim women, be Muslims.”

Views such as this go a long way to explain the violent attacks against women protesters recently. At protests on January 25 to mark the two-year-anniversary of the revolution, at least 19 women were attacked. One had to have surgery after her genitals had been sliced with a knife. Women of all ages have been attacked on Tahrir square. The appended video gives more detail.

While the President Morsi's office and the prime minister have denounced the edicts and one cleric is under investigation, both aides to Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood officials have depicted protesters as thugs and criminals and accused opposition politicians as fueling the violence in an attempt to overthrow Morsi. Many of the more conservative Salafists have gone further still.

Hard-line clerics say that under Islamic law, those who try to overthrow the ruler or cause chaos should face such punishments as death or amputation of limbs. These statements alarmed the opposition, especially after the recent killing of a secular opposition figure in Tunisia, Chokri Belaid.

The National Salvation Front said that Belaid's killing should sound danger alarms in Cairo and shows that terrorist groups are growing under the cloak of religion. They plot to eliminate the opposition morally and physically. The leader of the Front,Mohamed ElBaradei, complained that the government's silence on the clerical edicts gave the fundamentalists a licence to kill in the name of Islam. However since then Morsi's office issued a statement that rejects hate speech cloaked by religion and called for all leaders to stand together against unacceptable inciteful language. No doubt much opposition criticism of Morsi will probably fall under this rubric. The Prime Minister also criticized the edicts.

Security officials have also put ElBaradei's home and those of several other leaders under observation for their protection.Opposition leader Hamdeen Sabahy claimed death threats against him and other members of the National Salvation Front would not deter him or his supporters from continuing peaceful protests.

The edicts against the opposition leaders have been particularly virulent. On a recent talk show cleric Mahmoud Shaaban claimed that the leaders of the National Salvation Front were "setting Egyp on fire to gain power". He continued: “The verdict against them under God’s law is death." However, he added that the government not private citizens should carry out the verdict.

Another cleric, Wagdi Ghoneim, issued a video statement encouraging Morsi to crack down on this protesting around the presidential palace:“The verdict under Shariah for those who seek corruption on earth is to be fought, or crucified, or have their arms or legs cut off or be exiled from earth. Strike with an iron fist. Otherwise, the country will be lost at your hand and they’ll say it is your fault. They’ll say Islam doesn’t know how to rule and that it’s the Islamists who wrecked the country.”

Ghoneim said that if Morsi refused to act then private citizens would:“We will kill the criminals, the thugs, the thieves and those who give them money and those who help them with words. No mercy with them."

New Egyptian constitution restricts protests and strikes

The Shura Council's Human Rights Committee has newly granted legislative powers that it has used to draft new laws regulating protests and strikes. Many of the 26 articles drafted so far have been criticized both by labor and human rights groups.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party daily paper has published some of the provisions of the proposed law. The first 18 articles regulate protests and the last 8 put restrictions on the right to strike.

The legislation actually continues repressive legislation that dates back to Law 14 of 1923 when Egypt was a British protectorate. The law criminalized anti-occupation protests. Malek Adly of the Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights notes

:"Most of the provisions of this draft law have been copied verbatim from Law 14. This is evident in the use of terms like 'police,' which has long been replaced by the word 'shorta,' along with other outdated terms."

Adly explains that this anti-protest legislation was later adopted by Egyptian monarchs and military rulers to quell discontent. Now Mursi, the elected president, with a constitution passed by a majority vote, is doing the same. You have the same repression thinly veiled with a democratic veneer.

Before the January uprising that overthrew Mubarak, strikes had been growing. As the appended video shows trade unions played an important part in the revolution. However, strikes and industrial action have risen in number even since the revolution.

The Egyptian Federation of Independent Trade Unions (EFITU) harshly criticized the law, noting that it added additional control mechanisms that were not even present during the Mubarak regime. Adly believes that these policies are meant to control unrest that could follow from the US $4.8 billion loan from the IMF. Adly claims:

"We are heading towards austerity measures, tax hikes, subsidy cuts and [higher] unemployment, which will quite likely prove to be unpopular. This is why the state wants to do away with political rights as well as socio-economic rights. It seeks to strip citizens of their right to object to governmental policie."

There are a number of restrictions on protests. Article 2 requires that authorities must be notified three days prior to a protest. Authorities can refuse permission to hold the protest. Article three requires that the duration, place, and reasons for the protests must be clearly announced in advance.

Article 6 says that protests cannot take place in schools, houses of worship, or state buildings except for lectures and these must be approved by authorities. Article 7 demands that a representative be appointed to each protest action to ensure it does not get out of hand. Article 10 gives authorities the power to designate protest routes

Other articles give security forces authority to disperse any demonstrations regarded as harmful to national interests. Another requires governorates to allocate specific areas for demonstrations that do not obstruct traffic. Article 14 requires that demonstrations occur after 7 a.m. and disperse by 7 p.m. Under these regulations, the demonstrations in Tahrir square would have been illegal and subject to dispersal. No doubt if they happen again, some of the same people who were arrested and jailed under the old regime will now arrest many of those who protested alongside of them. Adly was critical of many of these articles saying that at most some of the provisions would apply only under a state of emergency.

Strikes are also very much regulated. A strike may not halt traffic or disrupt production, or public transport. Article 21 allows strikes within the workplace as long as they do not harm production or the national economy. It is quite often the harm caused to production that is the very reason for strikes since it put pressure on companies to settle. If workers strike, they are not working and that in itself will impact production. As Adly puts it:

“How can workers go on strike without halting production? The whole point of a strike is to halt production, and to use this action as a pressure mechanism against the employer."

There are many other regulations hostile to workers. Karim Saber, director of the Land Center for Human Rights said that the Trade Union Liberties draft law of September 2011, has been scrapped and the Brotherhood are now drafting their own laws.

Karam Saber, director of the Land Center for Human Rights, explains that the Brotherhood have scrapped the “Trade Union Liberties” draft law which was finalized in September 2011, and are now drafting their own laws which regulate Egypt’s trade unions and professional syndicates. The International Labor Organizations is threatening to blacklist the Egyptian government as a violator of labor rights, for failing to issue a trade union law protecting worker's rights to freely organize. Will we hear complaints about this from the IMF or from the Obama administration? Will the issue even be covered by mainstream western media?

Pro-NATO liberal coalition in Libya excluded from cabinet positions in new government

The Libyan Prime Minister-elect Mustafa Abushagur has nominated his cabinet for approval by the national congress. The nominees exclude members from the pro-NATO liberal coalition National Forces Alliance which won the most seats in a recent election

Abushagur was elected prime minister by the Libyan congress on September 12, narrowly beating his main opponent. Abushagur has many connections with the U.S. having lived there for several decades. He had a distinguished academic career as an engineering professor, and has launched businesses as well. He helped establish a branch of the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) in Dubai.

Abushagur's cabinet choices indicate he is attempting to achieve some type of geographical balance. Libya is notorious for regional rivalries that often threaten to tear the country apart.

His transitional government will take over from an interim administration in which he was deputy prime minister and which was appointed last November. The Abushaqur government will run the day to day affairs of Libya. The national congress, elected in July, will pass new laws but is also charged with helping to draft a new constitution that will be voted on in a referendum next year.

The lack of NFA representation in the cabinet is somewhat less surprising given the electoral system in Libya. Of the 200 seats available only 80 are available to political parties with the other 120 represented by independent candidates. Under Gadaffi, parties were banned on the ground they created disunity in the country. While the NFA won nearly half of the 80 seats for parties, the independents are regarded as more friendly on the whole to religious blocs. As a result, Abushagur has selected several cabinet members associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Only one woman was named to the cabinet, as minister of social affairs.

The NFA had been led by the prime minister of the earlier transitional government Mahmoud Jibril. He had demanded at least nine of 20 available cabinet posts but ended up with none even though his group is part of the coalition government, at least nominally. Hamuda Siala, NFA spokesman, said that the coalition would still support Abushagar's cabinet choices if the group aims to improve security, and boost development. Given Abushagar's background he probably will try his best to ensure a certain degree of liberalization and also promote conditions for foreign investment. At the same time, he has to be aware of and negotiate the complex competing forces within Libyan politics.

Perhaps Abushagar is reluctant to share power with the NFA since it was led by Mahmoud Jibril his opponent in the election for prime minister. Abushagar won that election 96 to 94. However, it might have been wiser to at given the group at least token representation in cabinet. Abushagar may be asking for more conflict with the group.

Egypt seeks IMF loan

In 2011 Egypt rejected a loan from the IMF. The government is now asking for more than $3 billion U.S. from the International Monetary Fund. Egypt asked for a loan earlier this year but the deal fell through.

On Wednesday August 22nd Christine Lagarde, IMF head, met Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandi and President Mohammed Mursi. Lagarde stressed the need for a reform program to solve the economic crisis in the country. Egypt is seeking a loan now from the IMF after claiming in June 2011 that it did not need one.

The prime minister Qandi said:

“The loan in general terms is worth 3.2 billion U.S. dollars. We talked about increasing it up to probably 4.8 and maybe more.”

Lagarde said the amount of the loan had not been settled. Qandi said that Egypt hoped to sign a deal by the end of 2012. The interest rate would be 1.1% and would be payable over five years with a 39 month grace period. Qandi continued:

“This high level visit by the IMF which comes very quickly after new government formation sends a positive message not only to Egypt but to the whole world that Egypt is stable and the Egyptian economy is headed for recovery. We will agree on a timeline and road map that will see a loan agreement signed by November or early December. The government has decided to seek foreign borrowing and the IMF conditions are acceptable to us,”

In spite of the fact that the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party had earlier rejected an economic program associated with an earlier loan of $3.2 billion it appears to welcome this loan. Quandi claims that Egypt will have final say as to how the money will be spent.

A presidential spokesperson praised the IMF and said that a democratic transition would need the support of international institutions such as the IMF. Yasser Ali the spokesperson said that the IMF was not just a funding institution but also encouraged investor confidence in the economy and foreign investment. The conditions for the loan will be discussed in later negotiations. Quite often the conditions are those promoting the global neoliberal agenda including selling off state assets, removal of state subsidies, and cutting back on entitlement programs.

Lagarde naturally put a positive spin on everything saying that the IMF would be Egypt's partner in a journey to restore stability, boost investor confidence, and create jobs. However she also warned that fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms would require determination and political courage. Many of these reforms will be politically unpopular and may help boost opposition parties in the polls.

Leftist protesters massed near the headquarters of the cabinet to protest Lagarde's visit. They condemned the IMF conditions for loans that the protesters claimed benefit only businessmen. They blame the IMF and the World Bank for privatization programs that were carried out under the Mubarak regime. No doubt there will be more of the same. Mursi's economic views are basically neo-liberal and for that reason he is supported by a number of U.S. officials and others in spite of his Islamist views and links to the Muslim Brotherhood.

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Egypt: Generals issue warning to Muslim Brotherhood

   The leader of the  SCAF(Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) the real rulers of  Egypt issued a thinly veiled warning to the Muslim Brotherhood. Field Marshal Tantawi head of the council said that the council will not allow a certain group to dominate the country. There is little chance of that since in effect the council already has staged a coup that gives most powers to itself.
    President Morsi elected recently is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although many suspect there are deals behind the scenes between the Brotherhood and the generals, in public there is often conflict. For example President Morsi convened parliament even after the Constitutional Court ruled that some aspects of the recent parliamentary elections were not legal and SCAF had dissolved the parliament. However the government did not prevent the parliament from meeting.
   Tantawi said:“Egypt will never fall. It belongs to all Egyptians and not to a certain group — the armed forces will not allow it,”  “The armed forces will not allow anyone, especially those pushed from outside, to distract it from its role as the protector of Egypt,” . “The army will never commit treason and will continue to perform its duties until Egypt reaches the shores of safety.” Of course Tantawi served in the administration of  Hosni Mubarak. The army constantly projects itself as the protector of the Egyptian people. The bad guys were the security forces. However, it was  military tribunals run by the armed forces who put protesters in jail. For more see this article.

Is the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt dead?

 The armed forces council (SCAF) is in control in Egypt. The president is a Muslim Brotherhood member. The secular and liberal protesters who led the revolution are sidelined. Egyptians seek order and security rather than revolution and democracy.

    The newly elected president Mohamed Morsi challenged the ruling military council (SCAF) by issuing a decree that annuls the decision by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to dissolve parliament. SCAF dissolved the parliament after the Constitutional Court ruled that there were irregularities in the election that violated the constitution. President Morsi also ordered that the parliament reconvene on Tuesday (July 10) The military council did not prevent the parliament from convening. Surely this is a sign that there are behind the scenes negotiations on what is to be allowed. 

    The substance of the meeting is also of interest. Parliament Speaker Saad el-Katatni told lawmakers that the legislature met to find ways to implement the court ruling rather than debate it out of respect for the principles of “the supremacy of the law and separation of authorities.” Clearly the parliament is not directly attacking the court ruling although the very fact that the parliament is meeting at all conflicts with the military order that dissolved parliament. Nevertheless the army is willing to allow this symbolic act as part of a delicate dance with the Muslim Brotherhood. For its part the SCAF has repeated its own position that the armed forces sided with the "constitution, legitimacy, and law". Both the Muslim Brotherhood and SCAF are key players in the new Egypt. Neither will bring about any radical change and both are committed to neoliberal policies. 

    The Muslim Brotherhood is long established in Egypt although under Mubarak leaders were often jailed including now president Morsi. The Brotherhood's political clout is due to its integral connection to many in Egyptian society especially the less well off. ""The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has more than three hundred thousand members and runs numerous institutions, including hospitals, schools, banks, businesses, foundations, day care centers, thrift shops, social clubs, and facilities for the disabled.""
 The army is connected to the economy through ownership and management of economic enterprises. The exact degree of the armed forces involvement is unknown but certainly significant. ""The army is known to manufacture everything from olive oil and shoe polish to the voting booths used in Egypt’s 2011 parliamentary elections,.....News reports have cited “expert” estimates that are all over the map, from 5 percent to 40 percent or more. ...Not only are army holdings classified as state secrets -- reporting on them can land a journalist in jail -- but they are also too vast and dispersed to estimate with any confidence. The army some time ago seized power"". As this article in the Huffington Post notes: """SCAF boldly and unambiguously asserted sweeping political and military powers: complete control over its own affairs (including control and continued secrecy around the use of over $1 billion in annual military aid from the United States), complete control over its own affairs, including budgetary autonomy as well as the ability to wage war without presidential or parliamentary approval; extraordinary powers of arrest over civilians; immediate assumption of legislative authority; defining and limiting the executive authority of the president; and overseeing the writing of Egypt's new constitution""
  President Morsi was elected without a job description. He is now trying to wrest some power from the military so that he can have some influence in the new Egypt. Certainly it is preferable to being in jail. With the transition to the new Egypt being controlled by SCAF along with the Muslim Brotherhood it would seem that the revolution and any hope of a transition to a modern secular democracy is unlikely. However, not everyone is pessimistic. Mark LeVine a professor of Middle Eastern History at the University of California Irvine thinks that the situation in Egypt is actually positive for liberals, secularists, and the democratic revolution. LeVine argues that at least those fighting for a democratic and secular Egypt have not sold out and joined what is in effect the same state apparatus as under Mubarak. He also argues that the Brotherhood in league with the military will not be able to provide a positive future for Egypt. They will fail and the people will turn to the real opposition movement. Now he argues is the opportunity for activists to begin the arduous task of grass roots organizing.
    In the long run LeVine may be correct but for the immediate future we are witnessing the army trying to incorporate the Muslim Brotherhood into their power system without yielding much. The presidential election itself tells us that many Egyptians prefer the security of an armed forces based regime as they voted for a representative of the Mubarak in just slightly less numbers than for Morsi the Muslim Brotherhood representative. The revolution may not be dead but it urgently needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. 

New Egyptian president annuls dissolution of parliament

In a challenge to the Constitutional Court and the ruling military regime(SCAF) newly elected president Morsi has issued a decree annulling the decision of June 15 to dissolve the People's Assembly. The official news agency reports: "President Morsi has issued a presidential decree annulling the decision taken on June 15, 2012 to dissolve the people's assembly, and invites the chamber to convene again and to exercise its prerogatives,"
  The Constitutional Court had ruled that certain article in the election laws were invalid and also the law that excluded senior members of the Mubarak regime from running. Parliamentary elections returned a large majority of Islamists. Almost half were won by Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood but also about a quarter were won by the more radical Salafists.
   The reaction of the ruling military council to this decree should be interesting. The relationship of the Brotherhood to the Military Council sometimes seems to involve deals but at other times out and out conflict. For more see this article.

Islamic groups dominate process to choose panel to draft constitution

Parliamentarians are meeting to choose a 100 member group that will draft a new Egyptian constitution. Fifty members of the panel will be sitting parliamentarians.

An Al Jazeera correspondent noted:"We have over 1,000 names that have been nominated. It's up to these hundreds of MPs to whittle them down to just 100.Fifty of that 100-member constituent assembly will be sitting parliamentarians and the other 50 will be trade unionists, members of civil society and so on,"

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood gained the majority of seats in recent elections to parliament. The Salafist Islamist Nour Party also did very well. As a result it is expected of the 50 parliamentarians to be chosen about 40 will be Islamists. No doubt there could be many Islamists within the other fifty as well. All combined , liberal Egyptian parties have less than one third of parliamentary seats.

A leader of the liberal Justice Party walked out of the sessions when his proposal that 25 seats be reserved in the constituent assembly for public figures was rejected. This move seems to make little sense. If a majority is opposed to what you propose then you lose. That is the way the democratic system works.

The Muslim Brotherhood claims it wants representatives from all groups and parties. It probably does but naturally it would like also to retain majority control.

Liberals are up in arms over what is happening. In spite of the fact that Islamist groups won handily in the elections it seems to me that the liberals really cannot accept that decision by the voting public.

Liberal activists and judges are filing suit to challenge the decision to appoint half of the members of the constituent assembly from the sitting parliamentarians. Khaled Fahmy from the American University in Cairo said:"This can actually result in a very tilted constitution that reflects the interests of only one segment of the population, which is the Islamists," No doubt the Islamists will try to tailor the constitution to their beliefs, beliefs that must be shared by a large number of Egyptians. Of course liberals dislike those beliefs because they conflict with theirs! See this article for more. The Egyptian people ultimately get to vote on whether they approve the constitution or not in a referendum.

Islamist Opposition wins big in Kuwait

   As in Egyptian elections Islamist parties in Kuwait did very well in recent elections. A bloc of  Islamist parties won a large majority of 34 of 50 seats in the National Assembly. There is just one legislative chamber in Kuwait.
    The bloc is a combination of harder line Salafists and the more moderate Muslim Brotherhood representatives. The majority is large enough to prevent the prime minister who is appointed by the monarch to block legislation through the 15 members of the cabinet he appoints. Even if he appoints no existing MPs the Islamists will still hold a 34 to 31 lead.
  Although the Kuwaiti parliament is in theory more powerful than those in other area monarchies in practice any attempts to exert real power are sometimes thwarted by royal action. The Islamist parties have pushed for anti-corruption measures and also introduction of Sharia law. Attempts by the legislature to pass laws against corruption led the Emir to dissolve the parliament in 2008. The emir claimed that the members were misusing their power. Corrupt politicians always worry about other politicians curbing their corruption! For more see this article.