Egyptian military leadership accepts President Morsi's changes to top leadership

Apparently there has been no negative reaction from the military even though President Morsi has forced the two top military leaders out of their posts. Perhaps Morsi made a deal with SCAF rather than pulling a surprise move to show his power.

There is no sign yet of any opposition to Egyptian President Morsi's seemingly dramatic move to remove the two top military leaders from their posts. There were no unusual military movements across Egypt today.
Morsi not only removed top military leaders but also took away some of the powers that the generals had given themselves. Morsi has reclaimed control of the constitution drafting process, the national budget, and the right to issue laws. If this decision stands it will reduce the power of the generals.
Morsi's moves however may have been made through negotiation with the military ruling council. Apparently there were consultations with members of the ruling military council including the two who lost their jobs before Morsi's made his decision. While there is always tension and potential conflict between Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and the military often the conflict results in deals between the opposing forces. This could very well be the case with the two leaders who have left their jobs. In a remarkable move today Morsi actually awarded medals to the two retiring leaders. Some may actually want them to face charges for actions under the Mubarak regime.
On August 14th President Morsi awarded Field Marshal Tantawi the Order of the NIle. This is Egypt's most prestigious honor. The award was in appreciation for Tantawi's efforts in protecting and serving Egypt. Tantawi served under Mubarak for decades. Lt. Gen. Sami Anan former army chief of staff was awarded the Order of the Republic. The two will also serve as presidential advisers. No doubt they will receive enough to live comfortably in retirement as well! This ceremony seems part of a worked out plan to show that there are no hard feelings at the changes.
The newly appointed Minister of Defense Lt. General Abdel el-Sissi is also a member of SCAF and former head of military intelligence under Mubarak. General Mohamed al-Assar who is a member of SCAF says that Morsi's decisions were made after consultations with Tantawi himself and SCAF.
Further confirmation that there there was a deal and not a dangerous confrontation comes from Washington's reaction. George Little a U.S. Defense Department Spokesperson said:
"We had expected President Morsi to coordinate changes in the military leadership....The United States and the Department of Defense, in particular, look forward to continuing a very close relationship with the SCAF."
All in all it the evidence points to a deal between the Egyptian military and Morsi. However, it is a deal that could bring Egypt closer to democracy and is a step in the right direction.

Egyptian President Morsi replaces Defense Chief and Chief of Staff

In a surprise and shocking announcement Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi fired the armed forces head and Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi. The new defense minister is Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi.

Tantawi had served for decades under former President Mubarak as defense minister. He was also chair of the ruling military council SCAF that has ruled Egypt for the last 17 months. The chief of staff of the military Sami Enan has also been forced into retirement. An Al Jazeera correspondent said:
"There will be a lot of questions asked, especially if Morsi is able to do this..In the coming hours, we will find out how this decision came about. All of this has happened very fast, and it was unexpected."
There are also reports that Morsi has canceled the military-declared constitutional amendments that gave great powers to the generals.
These developments come just days after Morsi together with Tantawi forced head of intelligence Major General Murad Muwafi into retirement after a militant attack killed 16 guards at a Sinai border crossing with Egypt. Maj. General Abdul Mabrouk governor of North Sinai province was fired as well.
President Morsi has reorganized the Interior Ministry. He appointed Maj. Gen. Hamed Zaki to command the Republican Guard and Major General Mustafa Kamel as head of Central Security Forces. This reorganization was apparently carried out with the cooperation of Tantawi. Now Tantawi too is gone. Something is brewing in Cairo. Relations between Morsi and the military have alternated between almost open conflict and behind the scenes deals. Relations seem to be now in the conflict stage.

Egypt: Generals issue warning to Muslim Brotherhood

   The leader of the  SCAF(Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) the real rulers of  Egypt issued a thinly veiled warning to the Muslim Brotherhood. Field Marshal Tantawi head of the council said that the council will not allow a certain group to dominate the country. There is little chance of that since in effect the council already has staged a coup that gives most powers to itself.
    President Morsi elected recently is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although many suspect there are deals behind the scenes between the Brotherhood and the generals, in public there is often conflict. For example President Morsi convened parliament even after the Constitutional Court ruled that some aspects of the recent parliamentary elections were not legal and SCAF had dissolved the parliament. However the government did not prevent the parliament from meeting.
   Tantawi said:“Egypt will never fall. It belongs to all Egyptians and not to a certain group — the armed forces will not allow it,”  “The armed forces will not allow anyone, especially those pushed from outside, to distract it from its role as the protector of Egypt,” . “The army will never commit treason and will continue to perform its duties until Egypt reaches the shores of safety.” Of course Tantawi served in the administration of  Hosni Mubarak. The army constantly projects itself as the protector of the Egyptian people. The bad guys were the security forces. However, it was  military tribunals run by the armed forces who put protesters in jail. For more see this article.

Is the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt dead?

 The armed forces council (SCAF) is in control in Egypt. The president is a Muslim Brotherhood member. The secular and liberal protesters who led the revolution are sidelined. Egyptians seek order and security rather than revolution and democracy.

    The newly elected president Mohamed Morsi challenged the ruling military council (SCAF) by issuing a decree that annuls the decision by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to dissolve parliament. SCAF dissolved the parliament after the Constitutional Court ruled that there were irregularities in the election that violated the constitution. President Morsi also ordered that the parliament reconvene on Tuesday (July 10) The military council did not prevent the parliament from convening. Surely this is a sign that there are behind the scenes negotiations on what is to be allowed. 

    The substance of the meeting is also of interest. Parliament Speaker Saad el-Katatni told lawmakers that the legislature met to find ways to implement the court ruling rather than debate it out of respect for the principles of “the supremacy of the law and separation of authorities.” Clearly the parliament is not directly attacking the court ruling although the very fact that the parliament is meeting at all conflicts with the military order that dissolved parliament. Nevertheless the army is willing to allow this symbolic act as part of a delicate dance with the Muslim Brotherhood. For its part the SCAF has repeated its own position that the armed forces sided with the "constitution, legitimacy, and law". Both the Muslim Brotherhood and SCAF are key players in the new Egypt. Neither will bring about any radical change and both are committed to neoliberal policies. 

    The Muslim Brotherhood is long established in Egypt although under Mubarak leaders were often jailed including now president Morsi. The Brotherhood's political clout is due to its integral connection to many in Egyptian society especially the less well off. ""The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has more than three hundred thousand members and runs numerous institutions, including hospitals, schools, banks, businesses, foundations, day care centers, thrift shops, social clubs, and facilities for the disabled.""
 The army is connected to the economy through ownership and management of economic enterprises. The exact degree of the armed forces involvement is unknown but certainly significant. ""The army is known to manufacture everything from olive oil and shoe polish to the voting booths used in Egypt’s 2011 parliamentary elections,.....News reports have cited “expert” estimates that are all over the map, from 5 percent to 40 percent or more. ...Not only are army holdings classified as state secrets -- reporting on them can land a journalist in jail -- but they are also too vast and dispersed to estimate with any confidence. The army some time ago seized power"". As this article in the Huffington Post notes: """SCAF boldly and unambiguously asserted sweeping political and military powers: complete control over its own affairs (including control and continued secrecy around the use of over $1 billion in annual military aid from the United States), complete control over its own affairs, including budgetary autonomy as well as the ability to wage war without presidential or parliamentary approval; extraordinary powers of arrest over civilians; immediate assumption of legislative authority; defining and limiting the executive authority of the president; and overseeing the writing of Egypt's new constitution""
  President Morsi was elected without a job description. He is now trying to wrest some power from the military so that he can have some influence in the new Egypt. Certainly it is preferable to being in jail. With the transition to the new Egypt being controlled by SCAF along with the Muslim Brotherhood it would seem that the revolution and any hope of a transition to a modern secular democracy is unlikely. However, not everyone is pessimistic. Mark LeVine a professor of Middle Eastern History at the University of California Irvine thinks that the situation in Egypt is actually positive for liberals, secularists, and the democratic revolution. LeVine argues that at least those fighting for a democratic and secular Egypt have not sold out and joined what is in effect the same state apparatus as under Mubarak. He also argues that the Brotherhood in league with the military will not be able to provide a positive future for Egypt. They will fail and the people will turn to the real opposition movement. Now he argues is the opportunity for activists to begin the arduous task of grass roots organizing.
    In the long run LeVine may be correct but for the immediate future we are witnessing the army trying to incorporate the Muslim Brotherhood into their power system without yielding much. The presidential election itself tells us that many Egyptians prefer the security of an armed forces based regime as they voted for a representative of the Mubarak in just slightly less numbers than for Morsi the Muslim Brotherhood representative. The revolution may not be dead but it urgently needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. 

New Egyptian president annuls dissolution of parliament

In a challenge to the Constitutional Court and the ruling military regime(SCAF) newly elected president Morsi has issued a decree annulling the decision of June 15 to dissolve the People's Assembly. The official news agency reports: "President Morsi has issued a presidential decree annulling the decision taken on June 15, 2012 to dissolve the people's assembly, and invites the chamber to convene again and to exercise its prerogatives,"
  The Constitutional Court had ruled that certain article in the election laws were invalid and also the law that excluded senior members of the Mubarak regime from running. Parliamentary elections returned a large majority of Islamists. Almost half were won by Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood but also about a quarter were won by the more radical Salafists.
   The reaction of the ruling military council to this decree should be interesting. The relationship of the Brotherhood to the Military Council sometimes seems to involve deals but at other times out and out conflict. For more see this article.

Egyptian parliament dissolved.

After a long electoral process the results have been summarily negated by the Egyptian high court. The court ruled that a third of the seats involved invalid results. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces then stepped in and announced that if one part of the parliamentary representatives are illegal then the whole parliament must be dissolved. So the military are back to ruling on their own. This is bound to provoked even more protest and divisions within Egypt.

The Egyptian constitutional court ruled against a law that would have barred the former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq from running in the presidential runoff. Shafiq said:"The message of this historic verdict is that the era of political score settling has ended," "The constitutional court has confirmed my right to participate in the election and reinforced the legitimacy of this election." Rather it seems the court is trying to facilitate the continuation of the old guard rule.

At the same time as these court rulings the justice ministry that gives the military police and intelligence officers power to arrest people suspected of crimes and restoring many of the powers given to police under the emergency laws that had only expired two weeks ago. The decree would apply to destruction of property obstructing traffic and resisting orders. The decree seems designed to crack down on protesters among other things. The decree is to remain in effect until a new constitution is drafted. For more see this article.

Egyptian protests continue as cabinet tenders resignation

Within a week parliamentary election campaigns are slated to begin. However, after violent clashes between security forces and protesters in and around Tahrir Square the situation is quite fluid.

The government has offered to resign which would leave the Supreme Military Council to govern solely on its own. Generals on the Supreme Council have started talks with civilian leaders to try to calm the crisis.

As with the original revolution the protesters are very broadly based and include leftists, Islamists, and liberal reformers. A coalition of 37 groups issued a statement which said:"We confirm our readiness to face all the forces that aim to abort the revolution, reproduce the old regime, or drag the country into chaos and turn the revolution into a military coup,"

The protesters have demanded that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces set a date for giving up power and that the army withdraw to its barracks. In a report Amnesty International has accused SCAF( the military council) of adopting the same oppressive means as that of Mubarak. The group has banned media, jailed critical bloggers, and even tortured protesters. It might be added that the regime has used military tribunals even more often than Mubarak and is still using emergency powers.

A last straw for many protesters is that the armed forces has attempted to revise the law so that it will not be subject to civilian oversight. An appended video puts the number killed in demonstrations at 20 but I have heard reports that put the total higher than that. Wounded numbers are estimated at over 1700. For more see this article. Egyptians are trying to save their revolution from the army takeover.