Libyan Government of National Accord needs vote of confidence before its term begins

The Libyan Political Agreement that was signed a few days ago in Skhirat, Morocco, also has associated with it a Government of National Accord(GNA) or unity government.

The text of the Libyan Political Agreement was published back in July on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya website. Article 1 says in part:

The term of the Government of National Accord shall be one year as of the date of granting it a vote of confidence by the House of RepresentativesSome parts may have changed but there is no reason to think this section has been eliminated. However, one never knows what the UN does to facilitate whatever it wants to achieve. So far the widely acclaimed LPA text has not appeared on the UN website. The mandate of the House of Representatives(HoR) ran out near the end of October. With no legal basis to do so, it unilaterally extended its mandate. The international community turned a blind eye to what happened and continued to recognize the HoR as the legitimate Libyan government. Back in November of 2014 the Libyan Supreme Constitutional Court declared the elections earlier in 2014 for the HoR were unconstitutional and that the HoR should be dissolved. The international community paid no attention. It may be bit of a puzzler that the HoR with no legal status should be required to approve the GNA, but that is what the LPA says. No one talks about this. The UN could always argue that the LPA created a new and legal HoR to replace the old one.

Neither of the two rival governments the HoR in Tobruk nor the rival General National Congress approved the LPA. Yet if the GNA is to come into being, the HoR must still approve it according to the LPA — at least the latest draft that appears to be available to the general public. It would appear that there are two HoRs however. There is the old HoR in Tobruk that did not approve or sign the LPA and then there is another HoR, the re-legitimized HoR that was created with the signing of the LPA. The UN hopes this group will meet in Tripoli. After they approve the GNA as set out in the LPA, the GNA then comes into being. The composition of the HoR for this meeting will be no doubt all those members of the old HoR who approved the LPA. Those who were against signing it will probably boycott the meeting. However, they could decide to attend to create trouble.

There is one huge problem with respect to the HoR approving the LPA. Even the supposed majority of the old HoR who approved in principle the LPA did so with the proviso that Khalifa Haftar remain as the commander in chief of the Libyan Army, and that some of the names for the GNA suggested by Kobler be changed. The members probably were quite well aware that the GNA required their approval before it becomes a reality. They can thus demand that the part of the LPA that removes Haftar from his position be deleted. As the LPA is now senior members of the GNA act as the commander in chief of the Libyan army:

 2. Terms of Reference of the Presidency Council of the Council of Ministers:

a. Assume the functions of the Supreme Commander of the Libyan armyHaftar would never allow this section to come into force unless he has changed his position drastically, and that is unlikely. Haftar virtually controls the HoR. The UN has a choice, they can change the LPA so as to allow Haftar to continue as commander in chief, outraging many others who signed on to the LPA or they can face a blocking tactic once again as their new HoR refuses to agree to a GNA that does not keep Haftar as commander in chief. Kobler met with Haftar recently at his military headquarters in Marj as shown on the appended video. No details of the discussion between the two were released. Perhaps this issue is already resolved in a way that satisfied Haftar. Haftar made none of his usual comments about rejecting the LPA or never negotiating with the GNC or its armed forces.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/politics/op-ed-is-there-a-libyan-government-of-national-accord-yet/article/452625#ixzz3vFlGUTqz

UN special envoy to Libya claims country on verge of collapse

The UN special envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, claims that while rival groups clash and so far refuse to agree to a political settlement the country is on the verge of an economic collapse.

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There are two rival governments, the internationally recognized government, the House of Representatives(HoR) in Tobruk in eastern Libya, and the GNC or Salvation government in the capital, Tripoli. Leon has been attempting to get the two groups to agree to a unity government and peace terms since last fall. Leon says that the UN is preparing a new fourth draft of an agreement which he hopes to present to the parties in the first week of June. He also claimed that at the last round the parties had agreed to about 80 per cent of a draft agreement and only 20 per cent needed to be negotiated.

The GNC rejected the last draft vehemently. The GNC parliamentary spokesperson, Omar Humaidan, said that the GNC "completely rejects the draft proposal as it does not provide an objective comprehensive balanced solution".The Libyan Supreme Court last November ruled the election for the HoR unconstitutional and that the HoR parliament should be dissolved. The HoR rejected the decision and ignored it in contrast to their response to the decision of the same court when it ruled the election of the an Islamist supported prime minister as unconstitutional leaving then interim prime minister Abdullah Al-Thinni as prime minister of the GNC. The rival prime minister accepted the ruling. Al-Thinni is now head of the Tobruk government.

The Leon draft ignores the court decision and recognizes the HoR as the sole legitimate governing authority: the draft calls for a two-year transitional period and for all parties to respect the results of a parliamentary election. Its fourth governing principle states that the House of Representatives (HoR), the internationally-recognized parliament that is locked in a struggle for legitimacy with the GNC, is “the only legislative authority in the country”.The HoR was ruled unconstitutional by Libya’s High Court last November, after a tense session in the GNC-controlled capital Tripoli. The draft does not mention the GNC.

The UN seems to be leaning over backward to ensure that the Tobruk government is the basis for the unity government. The draft is a total rejection of the Supreme Court decision and of any claim to legitimacy of the Tripoli government. Even if a political settlement is forthcoming there has to be agreement between the Tripoli militia forces and the Tobruk government forces of chief of the armed forces CIA-linked Khalifa Haftar for there to be any peace and a cease fire. Khalifa claims that he will not talk to Libya Dawn the main Tripoli militia and claims that there is a military solution to the problem. He is already trying to accomplish that through Operation Dignity that he began last May.

The conflict between the two governments is complicated further by the fact that the Islamic State is growing in influence in Libya and is powerful within two cities Derna in Tobruk government-controlled territory and Sirte in Tripoli-controlled territory. However, since IS actions are often dramatic and newsworthy its actual significance in my opinion is overstated. The real danger in Libya comes from Haftar's Operation Dignity and his complete rejection of talks with Libya Dawn and his contempt for the UN and any but a military solution. He regards anyone opposed to him and the Tripoli government as Islamists to be defeated. Even Voice of America noted in early March when for a time Tobruk withdrew from talks and appointed Haftar as armed forces chief:Last week, the Tobruk-based parliament suspended participation in talks that U.N. envoy Bernardino Leon has tried to broker. The parliament said it did so in response to Western pressure to include Islamists in a future government. “Haftar’s appointment sends a signal that Tobruk agrees with Haftar that anyone opposed to it is an extreme Islamist,” a European diplomat, who declined to be identified for this article, told VOA. “It isn’t a peacemaking choice.”The Libyan government may not have had a choice in appointing Haftar. It might have been appoint him or have the parliament burned down as Haftar's Operation Dignity had done with the GNC parliament:

Bernardino claims that Libyans understand that the only solution to the situation was a political agreement among factions. At least one important Libyan disagrees, Khalifa Haftar, head of the Tobruk government armed forces: He would not agree to any ceasefire with armed groups, he said."Then the military solution is a must because it is decisive ... when we are forced to, when we see our homeland torn apart as it is happening now, between militias and terrorists, we resort to a military solution. We are betting on the military solution," Haftar said.A ceasefire between armed groups is an essential part of any successful peace process as even Leon recognizes. He has tried to get the relevant groups together. Just how will he do that when Haftar claims he would not agree to any ceasefire straight out?

Haftar has constantly gone against UN demands completely ignoring them usually without any serious consequences except perhaps that the UN has not yet removed the arms embargo on Libya. With the help of Egypt and other Arab friends, he can get around that. The economic collapse that Leon fears will be in large part a result of the Tobruk government trying to sabotage the Libyan Central Bank and the National Oil Company both of which have kept Libya functioning by being neutral. Tobruk has tried to fire the head of the Bank and has set up a rival oil company. The UN had issued warnings of the dangers in doing this but they were ignored by Tobruk.

UN seeks Libya peace deal by June 17 claims UN Special Envoy

After briefing the UN Security Council on the UN-sponsored dialogues in Libya designed to have the two rival governments agree on a unity government, Bernardino Leon, the UN Special Envoy, said he hopes to reach a deal by June 17.

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Earlier, he had expected to have reached a deal already. However, his third draft proposal for a unity government was rejected by the Tobruk government. In his remarks to reporters after the briefing, Leon noted he had already heard from both parties. He said some responses were critical and others negative. He claimed his group was listening to the responses and trying to improve the draft to reach a consensus. Leon said:We all know very well and the actors involved in the dialogue know very well that there is no military solution. So, the fighting you can see in the country is mainly affecting the political dialogue and intended to hamper the political dialogue. This is what both of these actors are trying to do and this is why I explained to the Security Council that we need to start with the security track as soon as possible, we are trying to start first meeting as soon as next week.

Leon said he wanted to have face to face meetings as soon as possible.

It is not at all clear how Leon will be able to initiate the security track. The political groups must have enough leverage to force the military forces on either side to the bargaining table. There is little evidence that either side has such leverage. In the case of the Tobruk government, perhaps western governments have sufficient leverage but even that appears uncertain. Khalifa Haftar, contrary to the UN opinion, believes there is a military solution and has consistently rejected any dialogue with the Libya Dawn militia, the main military force associated with the rival Tripoli government:Operation Dignity has rejected an invitation from UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon to join in the military platform of the Dialogue process. It says it is part of the regular army, not a militia, and that it takes its instructions only from the General Staff and the head of the armed forces. It complained that Leon was treating it as just another militia. It did not negotiate or get involved in talks with militias, a spokesman said on Karama TV.

Operation Dignity was begun by Haftar back in May of last year. To a considerable extent Operation Dignity was the beginning of the conflict between the two rival forces that continues to this day. Haftar started by vowing to rid Libya of Islamists — or at least those opposed to him — and began by attacking two Islamist militia bases in Benghazi, but later the Operation burned down the parliament building in Tripoli. The government with the present prime minister of the Tobruk government, Abdullah Al-Thinni in charge, condemned Haftar's actions as illegal. Now the same Al-Thinni and his government give full support to Operation Dignity and have made Haftar commander of the Libyan National Army. Haftar is correct about Operation Dignity no longer being a militia. It is part and parcel of the Libyan armed forces and has the support of the Tobruk government. The UN wants to pretend that there are two militias involved and that somehow the Libyan army is a separate entity not involved in the conflict of the two parties. But Haftar is correct and the UN distinction makes no sense at all, but obscures the situation. Leon should be attempting to have discussions between Haftar as commander of the Libyan National Army and Libya Dawn as the two main actors in the security dialogue. It really does not matter that the Libyan National Army is not a militia, it is the armed force that is fighting with the forces allied with the Tripoli government. In any event, Haftar believes there is a military solution to the conflict and that is what he is pursuing. How Leon plans to get Haftar together with representatives of Libya Dawn for a security dialogue is not at all clear.

On one issue at least Libya Dawn and Haftar agree. Neither will agree to a dialogue with the other. Last Saturday, Libya Dawn rejected a call to join in a dialogue to end the crisis. They even demanded that the UN withdraw Bernardino Leon from Libya and called for demonstrations against the UN:"We demand the Libyans to demonstrate on Friday afternoon in all squares and fields to show Leon, the United Nations and all the conspirators against our people and our blessed revolution that confused the balance of all the world powers."Along with the GNC Tripoli government, the militia angrily reject the terms of the third draft of a unity government presented by Leon to the two parties. In particular they reject giving sole legitimacy to the Tobruk House of Representatives(HoR) ignoring the Supreme Court ruling that the elections for the HoR were unconstitutional and the HoR should be dissolved.

Leon was asked a question at the news conference after his briefing to the UN about the rejection of his draft agreement by the Tripoli government. Leon said he had talked about their rejection with them and noted that they did agree with some parts of the agreement and that they were continuing with the dialogue process and interested in improving the proposal. He also said that in talking with the representatives in Tripoli that they had been critical but not as negative as some of the reactions in public.

Leon also said that the continued fighting within Libya was of concern to the UN and the international community: At least for the moment, you can’t see any of the military actors strong enough to impose completely on the other. So, it is true that there is fighting everywhere in the country, but at the same time it is enforcing our argument that the only solution is political.The current president of the UN Security Council said members of the council had repeated their readiness to use sanctions against people trying to block the peace process. As I discussed in an earlier article General Haftar has continually snubbed his nose at the UN, calling the dialogue talks with terrorists, and claiming he would never talk with rival militias. He remains untouched. Now Libya Dawn has also thwarted the peace process and refused to cooperate. So where are those sanctions?