Tripoli ceasefire among militias fails to hold

(March 16) The Presidency Council(PC) of the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) was able to broker an agreement among many brigades to stop fighting in Tripoli after many clashes the previous night.

For some reason Faiez Serraj the PM and head of the PC was not in attendance. PC member Ahmed Hamza and the Defense Minister Mihid al-Barghati chaired the meeting. The meeting was held in the Abu Sittah Naval Base one of the few secure areas to meet in Tripoli no doubt. The municipal councils of Misrata, Souq Al-Jonaa and Central Tripoli also took part. Commanders of loyal armed brigades from Misrata and Tripoli also participated.

The agreement requires all armed brigades "rival ones" to withdraw from Tripoli as set out in the Libya Political Agreement (LPA). The Tripoli Revolutionaries' Brigade(TRB) and Ghaniewa of the UN PC launched an offensive again other groups several days ago and drove them out of several areas of the capital. However under the agreement control will be handed over to other loyal brigades from the city of Misrata:“Brigade 301 of the Ministry of Defense will be tasked to guard the Ministry of Interior,” the agreement indicated. Brigade 301 is from Misrata and known as Al-Halboos Brigade. Regarding protection of Rixos compound, the agreement stated that it would be handed over to Brigade 14 and Brigade 155, both are also Misrata. Brigade 17, also from Misrata, was tasked with the protection of Airport Road, a region where several rival groups are located.The agreement immediately ran into difficulties as Ghaniewa that is in control of the RIxos compound backed out and said it was not part of the agreement.

The above account is from the Libya Observer. The Libya Herald also covers the ceasefire. The Herald account notes that in the fighting the leader of the National Salvation Government, Khalifa Ghwell who was attempting a coup against the GNA had been injured in the fighting. As discussed in a recent Digital Journal article, Ghwell was driven out of his headquarters in the Rixos hotel complex. He is said to have been taken to Misrata for treatment. According to the Herald the agreement provides for the departure of armed factions "beyond the law" from Tripoli as required by the LPA. It is not clear which militia are "beyond the law" or who is to ensure that the agreement terms are obeyed by militias. It may not matter because it seems that several important militia groups did not agree to the deal according to reports. The Rada Special Deterrence Force headed by Abdul Kara, and the Abu Sleem Central Security Force headed by Gheneiwa or Abdul Al-Kikli have not agreed to the deal.

Earlier today Bunyan Marsous commanders from Misrata said they were sending 1500 armoured vehicles to "force the establishment of peace and security in Tripoli". The Herald did not know what had happened to the operation.

In a later article, the Herald notes that the ceasefire had been rejected by the Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade headed by Haytem Tajouri . The Brigade said it would continue its advance and there were unconfirmed reports of minor clashes breaking out again. The TRB said that with no legitimate army to keep order it would protect the people. The TRB said that it would never be satisfied with "half measures and formal agreements". The TRB also accused fighters from other towns of sowing instability in Tripoli.

There was an attack on al-Hadhba prison today that killed several guards as reported in a recent tweet: Very serious developments, heavy fighting near al-Hadhba prison, where former regime senior officials are held. There may be more clashes happening soon as the PC agreement does not include at least three key militia groups in Tripoli.

Russian envoy arrives in Tripoli with a new plan to resolve political deadlock

An envoy from the Russian foreign ministry arrived in Tripoli bringing a new plan to solve the country's political deadock, local media report.

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A release from the media office of the High Council of State announced that the Russian envoy had informed the President of the Council, Abdul-Rahman Swehli. that Russian authorities intended to host a meeting to solve the Libyan political crisis. The meeting would be supervised by Vladimir Putin and the Russian ministries of defense and foreign affairs. The release said that the proposed meeting would aim to enlarge the circle of those who are part of the Libyan political dialogue and end the political deadlock.

Russia has been in the news of late as a possible source of weapons for Haftar. Haftar was said to have asked Russia for weapons. However, this has been denied by other sources. The media office also quotes the Russian envoy as denying the reports: "The envoy confirmed that his country will not provide weapons to any Libyan party in implementation to the UNSC resolutions." The envoy also said the same thing to Musa Al-Koni of the Presidency Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA). There is a UN ban on weapons exports to Libya.

The Libya Oberserver said that no details of the initiative have yet been provided but said that there was speculation that Russia wanted Haftar to remain in his post as commander of the armed forces in any GNA that he would join. The present Libyan political agreemet (LPA) has the PC itself serve the role of commander in chief. Many members of the PC and even more in the State Council would be vehemently opposed to Haftar having the role of commander in chief or any significant role in the GNA armed forces. It will be interesting to see more details about the plan of the meeting and who will be invited.

The UN special envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, has tried his best to work out some role for Haftar to play without success. Haftar criticized his attempts as meddling in Libyan affiars. The head of the PC, PM Faiez Serraj also has tried in vain to work out a deal. Just yesterday, a high level meeting of representatives from many countries in Paris was not able to reach any solutions. Russia had not been invited to the meeting. It is unclear why Russia thinks it can be successful when so many other attempts have turned out to be abject failures. Trying to keep Haftar on as commander in chief would probably result in internal strife that would destroy the GNA. Perhaps that is the idea!

Haftar has shown little interest so far in plans to accommodate him and have him join the GNA. He has been active extending his power in the east by seizing four ports in the Oil Crescent and replacing local civilian authorities by military officials. He considers most militias associated with the GNA to be his enemies and to be defeated by his Operation Dignity eventually.

A tweet perhaps related to the upcoming meeting says:" #Egypt & #Russia trying to reach out to influential leaders within #Misrata. Efforts to bring Misrata & East together. No easy task #Libya "

Libyan Presidency Council meets with only 4 of 9 members attending

The nine member Presidency Council (PC) of the UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord has only until Wednesday to select a new Cabinet of just 8 members, 9 fewer than the present 17.

The Presidential Council met yesterday as well with five present. Those missing included the two boycotters who had said they would rejoin the Council. Attendance was even worse today, August 29, with only four of nine members present. Again, the former boycotters did not show up. The PM Faiez Serraj, Ahmed Maetig, Musa Koni, and Ahmed Al-Ammari were the only members present. A Libya Herald report points out that Abdulslam Kajman could not be there as he is at a conference in Nairobi on African Development. It is not clear why Fathi Majberi, Ahmed Mahdi or Omar al-Aswad were not there. The Herald claims that Ali Gatrani will not go to any meeting in Tripoli as long as it was still controlled by militia.

While the meeting yesterday was supposed to be working on the new list, apparently Koni was angry with Serraj and Maetig because southern Libya, which he represents was not being assigned a fair share of ministers and officials. There were rumors he might boycott the PC, but obviously these were not true, as he was present today. A list produced by less than half of the PC will surely lack credibility.

Meanwhile Haftar seems to be busy extending the power of the military in the east. He suspended the Benghazi municipal council and replaced it by a military colonel. Mustafa Shaqour, a member of the HoR, criticized appointment of military governors in place of civilian mayors and councils in several cities. He said that the goal of these moves is to militarize Libya . He said that gradually Libyans would be faced with a military coup. However, this appears to be happening only in the east of the country.

Speaker of the HoR, Ageela Saleh has asked that Serraj step down as head of the GNA and PC. Since no confidence was voted in the GNA by the HoR, Saleh claims that all his decisions are void and he should step down from his post in the GNA. Saleh did say that the new eight member cabinet should be chosen by an agreement among the nine member PC. He said that CVs of the members should be sent to the HoR within 10 to 15 days, allowing for a bit longer period than the original 10 days.

Saleh was also critical of UN envoy Martin Kobler claiming that he could no longer play a positive role in Libya and that he wants to be governor of Libya. He said he was interfering in oil sales and also in choosing the high commander of the army, which increased the divisions within the country. The function of commander in chief of the GNA armed forces is assigned to the PC until a new commander is chosen, according to the terms of the Libyan Political Agreement.

Given that less than half the PC are involved with choosing the new cabinet and the divisions within the HoR, it seems unlikely that a new vote of confidence can be passed or perhaps even held. There is no solution offered concerning the status of General Haftar and no mention of the crucial amendment to the Constitutional Declaration of 2011 that is necessary before the GNA can be legitimate

Unity Libyan government signs deal to open oil ports

Two members of the Presidency Council (PC) of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), Musa Koni and Ahmed Mahdi, along with defense minister Mahdi Al-Barghathi, flew to Ras Lanuf today to sign a deal to open the terminal there and at Es Sidre.

Barghathi and Koni both flew in from Cairo, where they had been with GNA Prime Minister Faiez Serraj where they had talks with the rival House of Representatives head Ageela Saleh. The deal is with Ibrahim Jadhran, head of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG). While details of the deal are yet to be released it is understood that a significant amount will be paid to Jadhran, including back salaries of what he claims are his 23,000 PFG forces. Some claim these numbers have been inflated and the real number is closer to 12,000 with only about 3,000 of those working within the PFG.

The deal seems to have been worked out between Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG), Martin Kobler, who went to Ras Lanuf, and met with Jadhran about a week ago. The head of the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) Mustafa Sanallah wrote a letter to Kobler filled with criticisms of the deal. Apparently, Kobler did not consult Sanallah on the deal. The Presidency Council of the GNA must have agreed to sign the resulting agreement.

Sanallah has said he will not lift force majeure on the ports if there is an agreement to pay Jadhran. As long as there is force majeure, exporters have no guarantee that contracts will be met making it very risky to use the ports.

Sanallah claimed the deal set a terrible precedent through rewarding Jadhran for extorting money from the state through shutting the ports.

Sanallah has rejected the agreement with Jadhran, accusing him of being a trickster. Sanallah also accused UN envoy Martin Kobler of backing one of the biggest deceivers in the country. Sanallah accused Presidency Council member Fathi Mijibri, a close ally to Jadhran, of using his position to capture the NOC. Sanallah even threatened to withdraw NOC recognition of the UN-installed government. Before that happens I would expect that Sanallah would be fired. There has been no statement from Sanallah as yet about the signing of the deal.

The Observer reports the government agreed to pay an LYD 241 million to Jodran in order to resume exports, but a source confirmed that only LYD 85 million out of the total amount has been paid to him so far. Ajdabiya mayor Salem Jodran, brother of Ibrahim Jodran, confirmed that the agreement to reopen the ports was reached after ensuring the rights of PFG employees and their salaries.

Stakeholders who have control of oil infrastructure have long insisted they need to be compensated for keeping ports open, allowing exports or production. Tribes south of the ports want some compensation as does Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army, whose forces control some fields. The House of Representatives (HoR) government also demands revenue from export sales.. The latter insists that any tanker that loads oil must have a permit from the eastern-based National Oil Company. There is supposed to be one merged NOC but the deal establishing it has not been accepted by the HoR.

UN-brokered Government of National Acoord lacks a legislature

The UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) has managed to claim it is up and running and its Presidential Council has moved to a Tripoli naval base.

The GNA has also established the main advisory body, the State Council, by holding a meeting of General National Congress (GNC) members who supported the GNA who had been listed by Salah Makhzoum as members of the Council and recognized as such by the UN and GNA Presidency Council. The meeting started out supposedly as a meeting of the GNC, which then voted to approve the GNA and amend the constitutional declaration of 2011 to include the GNA. It then dissolved itself and became the State Council and went on about its business. Critics claim the process was not legitimate.

A number of ministries formerly under the GNC Salvation Government are now run by the GNA. The Tripoli-based National Oil Company and Central Bank are also allying with the GNA. However, the legislature of the GNA is the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) which so far has not approved the GNA nor passed the amendment to the 2011 constitutional declaration as required by the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed on December 17. The Emperor may have no clothes but the GNA has no legislature.

There have been numerous meetings of the HoR to approve the GNA but all have been either without a quorum or have been disrupted with the result that no formal vote has ever been taken approving the GNA. This has not stopped the GNA from declaring itself operative because a letter allegedly signed by a majority of the HoR approved the GNA at least in principle. The GNA also claims it was give a green light to move to Tripoli by members of the Political Dialogue group that signed the LPA. However, the GNA must have realized it still had no legislature and that it needed to bring the HoR on board — or continue to face an alternative government backed by probably the most formidable military forces in Libya under Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar.

Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) Martin Kobler has been trying to find some device for avoiding a vote in the full HoR and simply holding a meeting outside of Tobruk that will be attended by members of the HoR who approve the GNA at least in principle. Near the end of Aprilsome members of the HoR went to the western Libya desert town of Ghadames to prepare for such a meeting. There were no follow up reports and the meeting never took place.

On May 9 some members of the HoR met with members of the GNA and presented them with a new initiative meant to solve the issue. The two deputy speakers of the HoR, Shouaib and Homa, called GNA Prime Minister Faiez Serraj to deal with the proposal "with all seriousness and with a high spirit of patriotic responsibility." There was absolutely no information about the content of the initiative. There has been no report since of any response from the PM.

Apparently the two deputy speakers have continued to urge Ageelah Salah, the speaker and head of the HoR, to change his position and allow a vote to go forward to vote on the GNA. Salah is under sanctions by both the EU and now the U.S. but its only result seems to have been to entrench him in his position. But hope springs eternal as a recent tweet puts it: #Libya HoR presidency trying to make progress after meeting between Agilah & his two deputies in Bayda, Hopes for session on Monday #Tripoli.

Even if there is finally a vote on the GNA those who approve the GNA in principle also demand that Haftar keep his position as commander in chief of the Libyan National Army. If Kobler agrees to this, the GNA that he has been so eager to strengthen will likely rebel as there are many in the State Council and even in the Presidential Council who are adamantly opposed to Haftar keeping that position. In the recent demand for a unified command the Presidential Council finally took note that under the LPA it was now commander in chief. If it now allowed Haftar to remain in his job many members of the GNA would revolt.