Turkey arranges meeting with president of GNC and prime minister designate of new Libyan GNA

The UN-brokered Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) will actually be in power only after a vote of confidence by the internationally-recognized House of Representatives (HoR) Libyan government based in Tobruk in the east of Libya.

A rival government is based in Tripoli in the west, the General National Congress (GNC). While the GNA still is in the process of formation, nevertheless officials designated in the UN's last draft of the Libya Political Agreement(LPA), that sets the parameters for the government, regularly meet with important officials from other countries. The officials have been acting as if the GNA exists and their positions confirmed long before the LPA was even signed. The agreement was never approved by either rival government and still has not been. The LPA requires it be approved by the HoR and the deadline for signing of January 27 is fast approaching. Recent meetings of the HoR have failed to reach a quorum and so have failed to vote on the GNA.

On Monday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met with Faiez Serraj, the prime minister designate of the GNA government. The meeting was intended to indicate the strong support of Turkey for the GNA government. The two leaders were reported to have discussed ways to increase stability, fight terrorism, and provide support for the Libyan people, including how to build up institutions. Libya has had two main rival governments for some time but many areas are in fact ruled by local militias who are often a law unto themselves. The Islamic State has also established a firm foothold in the coastal city of Sirte, ironically Gadaffi's home town. The group has launched attacks in several areas including on nearby oil ports. Once the GNA has a vote of confidence from the HoR, it will be the sole recognized government, replacing the HoR. However the HoR remains as the legislature in the new government.

Aawsat reports that Nouri Abusahmain, the president of the General National Congress, is to travel to Istanbul to meet with Serraj. Up until now Abusahmain has rejected the GNA and promoted a dialogue among Libyans without foreign interference to come up with a solution to the political crisis. This project has been weakened since the president of the HoR, Ageela Salah, abandoned the project and is now said to support the GNA.

The Turkish mediation is apparently being aided by the designated representative from Cyrenaica for the GNA , Mohammed Zayed, who is said to have played a key role in convincing Abusahmain to come to Instabul for the meeting. Turkey is seen as more supportive of the GNC, which has a strong Islamist component, than other countries such as Egypt and the Arab League, who support Haftar and the HoR.

However, the GNC president sees the GNA as imposed by foreign interests and is concerned about the role of General Haftar and other former Gadaffi military officials in the Libya National Army(LNA). Serraj will need to convince Abusahmain that Haftar will not be commander in chief of the LNA once the GNA is formed. According to the LPA, this role will immediately go to senior officials of the GNA and Haftar will be relieved of his position, but many of the pro-Haftar members of the GNA think otherwise. As I wrote in a recent article, the status of Haftar in the new government is far from clear even though it is crucial to the success of the GNA that he be sidelined.

Baghdad demands Turkish troops withdraw from northern Iraq

The central Iraqi government in Baghdad has demanded that Turkey immediately withdraw troops in the northern Nineveh area near the city of Mosul that is occupied by the Islamic State or Daesh.

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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that no permission had been granted for "around one armed battalion" of Turkish troops to be in the area. Al-Abadi issued a statement saying:"We have confirmed that Turkish forces, numbering about one armored regiment with a number of tanks and artillery, entered the Iraqi province of Ninawa… allegedly to train Iraqi groups, without a request or authorization from Iraqi federal authorities."He also said that the deployment was a serious violation of Iraqi sovereignty. However, the Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu said that the troops were part of an training mission requested both by Mosul's governor, Atheel Nujaifi, and was coordinated by the Iraqi defence ministry. Turkish media reported that around 150 Turkish soldiers backed by 20 to 25 tanks had been sent to the Bashiqa area northeast of Mosul.

An Al Jazeera reporter confirmed that the Turkish troops appear to have been invited to the area by the Mosul governor:"It seems like the government of Mosul has told Baghdad: 'We need more help with fighting ISIL, and if the Turks are willing to offer that help, we will take them up on that'." However, the Iraqi foreign ministry issued a statement on state TV that the presence of the troops was "an incursion".

Iraq's foreign ministry had earlier said in a statement on state television that the Turkish deployment was "an incursion". A senior Kurdish military officer based on the front-line just north of Mosul said that additional Turkish trainers arrived at the camp on Thursday with a Turkish protection force escorting them. He claimed that training had been going on for two or three years already.US defence officials said they were aware of the Turkish deployment but they were not party of the US-led coalition operations.

Turkey escalating conflict with Kurds threatening civil war

Less than a week after the Turkish parliament authorised its military to carry out ground operations in Syria and Iraq, the Turkish military is carrying out operations against the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) in the mountains of northern Iraq.

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At the time the motion was passed last week, the government emphasized the move was part of the war against the Islamic State. The pro-Kurdish opposition (HDP) in the parliament objected to the move — it thought it would be used to attack the PKK rather than the Islamic State. The motion also authorizes continued air strikes which are also being used against the PKK as well as the Islamic State.

The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization by some including the U.S. and Turkey but not China, Russia, or even Egypt. There is a long history of conflict with Turkey described in some detail here. In 2013 the PKK declared a ceasefire with Turkey and began withdrawing fighters within Turkey into northern Iraq. The PKK have been active in fighting against the Islamic State. They were instrumental in helping "tens of thousands" of Yazidis escape when they were encircled by the Islamic State on Mt. Sinjar. The ceasefire was often violated with Turkey bombing Kurd positions in 2014 but any hope of the ceasefire holding was ended when along with its first air attacks against the Islamic State, Turkey launched a series of bombing raids against PKK positions in Iraq.

The bombings have set off a series of attacks blamed on the PKK within Turkey. 16 soldiers were killed in one day and another 14 police officers the next day. Many critics of Erdogan suggest that he is using the renewed clashes as a means to improve his chances of achieving a majority in an upcoming election. The incursion of Turkish ground forces into northern Iraq is the first such move since the ceasefire in 2013. While government officials claim it is a "short term measure" to hunt down the PKK fighters in the region, it is a clear escalation of the conflict. The ground operation was accompanied by renewed air attacks on PKK positions in the area as well.

Turkish president Recep Erdogan claims the PKK had suffered "serious damage" both inside and outside Turkey and was in a "state of panic." Even more seriously damaged is the security of Turkey and any hope of an end to internal conflict. The conflict has lasted three decades and with the new Erdogan policy appears headed into another decade. The Turkish government is pledging to escalate the campaign against the PKK as elections approach on November 1st. As an Al Jazeera article puts it: "As the armed conflict deepens in Turkey, political leaders are burning political bridges needed to end the violence." The pro-Kurdish HDP party headquarters have been attacked. This party helped deprive Erdogan's AKP party of its majority last June.

The Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is a strong supporter of renewed military action vowing to "wipe out" rebel strongholds. Erdogan said that Turkey will get over the plague of terror. The government intends to deploy 5,000 police and military personnel to 20 of Turkey's most restive pro-PKK towns and cities, a recipe for more clashes. Since the renewed hostilities in June, pro-PKK youth groups have tried to control city centers, by setting up armed checkpoints and even digging trenches to combat Turkish police. This movement has been accompanied by 15 different districts declaring "autonomy." Turkish police have attempted to regain control by entering blockaded areas with armed convoys. In effect Erdogan has managed to provoke a civil war within certain parts of Turkey while rallying right-wing nationalist groups to support his crackdown.

Talks with the jailed PKK leader Ocalan have been frozen and this time he has not issued a call for another cease fire. The co-chair of the pro-Kurd People's Democratic Party(HDP), Selahattin Demirtas, has called for the PKK to immediately end hostilities. The PKK leadership refused. A pro-government Turkish daily had a photo of Demirtas with "killer" in capitals beneath it. Erdogan already has asked parliament to strip some members of the HDP of their parliamentary immunity and try them on terrorism charges. Erdogan not only is burning bridges and thus blocking a political solution to the Kurdish issue but he is also building bridges towards a quasi-fascist militaristic Turkey that will create even more instability in the middle east.