Arab League, African Union and UN Support Mission joint statement on Libya

On the 25th of October the League of Arab States, African Union and the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) held a meeting to discuss the situation in Libya.

The meeting also talked of ways for the three organizations to cooperate to "advance the political process and assist Libya in its democratic transition". It could be argued that there has been no democratic transition but a UN-supported Government of National Accord that has been manufactured by external forces as much as by Libyans and forced upon the Libyans. The government is not able to satisfy basic needs and has been unable to unify with the east which is becoming more and more under military control led by Field Marshal Haftar.

The statement consists of 15 separate points and the entire document can be found here. The meeting was with Ahmed Gheit, Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Jakaya Kikwete of African Union representative for Libya and Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) and head of UNSMIL.

In the third point the parties "reiterated their rejection of any foreign intervention in Libya". Presumably, the three do not object to foreign intervention that is requested. The problem is that foreign military intervention may be requested by one government such as the UN-supported GNA while rejected by their rival government of the House of Representatives (HoR). While the GNA welcomes and asked for US bombing support of the Sirte offensive, the HoR regards the bombing as unwarranted foreign intervention. There is already intervention of special forces from the U.K., U.S. and France, and Jordan and perhaps others. There is also intervention by Egypt and the UAE and support for Haftar that often violates the UN weapons ban on Libya.

The statement notes that a Troika of representatives from the three organizations would be set up to held enhance cooperation on Libya by the three bodies to help facilitate the Libyan Political Agreement. The envoys of the three organizations are to "conduct joint missions" that would encourage key Libyan stakeholders to advance the political process.

The document condemns the recent coup attempt saying the action hindered the political process. They called for swift de-escalation of the process and consolidation of security and rule of law in Tripoli. No recommendations are made as to how this can be done. There is no mention of the defection of the Presidential Guards, who are supposed to defend the GNA, to those attempting the coup.

There is no change from the long existing plan to have the HoR vote confidence in the GNA:The parties expressed their support for the PC and urged it to continue to assume its responsibilities, in an inclusive manner, as mandated by the LPA, and to present a revised cabinet of the Government of National Accord. They also expressed their support for the House of Representatives, as the legislative authority of the State, and urged it to continue to fulfill its responsibilities towards the LPA.

So far the HoR has exercised its responsibility twice by rejecting the GNA, the last time on August 22. The GNA had ten days to present a new cabinet, that is over two months ago. The HoR is functioning as a legislature but of the rival HoR government in Tobruk not that of the UN-recognized GNA.

The parties emphasize the need for cohesive and professional Libyan military and security forces "operating under a unified chain of command as mandated by the LPA". They do not mention that this makes the PC commander in chief for now. There is no mention of Haftar and the demand of him and his supporters that the LPA section on this issue, article 8, be deleted. Support was expressed for the fight against terrorism in Sirte but also in Benghazi and other areas. No specific mention is made of Derna which is under siege by Haftar.

The parties welcome efforts to restore oil production. No mention is made of Haftar's seizure of the oil ports. They support a unified oil company. They do not mention the unification agreement that has the headquarters moving to Benghazi and has the NOC reporting to the HoR. They stress as well the importance of a unified Central Bank to oversee funds collected. The group said they were ready to provide technical support to assist the PC in dealing with the Central Bank on issues of public financing and expenditures. The group wants to help mobilize and coordinate international support for Libya. There is a high-level meeting on Libya to be held in London soon. The final point of the communique is that the group is committed to having further meetings.

The group stick with the long-standing policy of regarding the LPA as the only way forward even though so far any attempt to pass it through the HoR has failed. There is no discussion of the problem of Haftar or any reason provided to think that a new cabinet will result in a vote of confidence in the GNA by the HoR. Given the length of time since the GNA was voted down there is not even any good reason to believe the PC can ever agree to a new cabinet. No deadlines are set. That is probably a better approach than setting a deadline and then breaching it continually.

After Al-Shabab leader killed in US drone strikes revenge attacks are launched

A US drone strike recently killed Al-Shabab leader Ahmed Godane. The group has threatened revenge strikes in retaliation. The group lost no time in naming a new leader Ahmad Umar to replace Godane.

Somali authorities have placed the country on high alert in preparation for possible attacks by Al-Shabab. Little is known about the new leader. An Al-Shabab commander said the decision to name him as leader was unanimous. The announcement of the new leader happened only a few minutes after the group confirmed that Godane had been killed. Al-Shabab issued a warning statement: "Avenging the death of our scholars and leaders is a binding obligation on our shoulders that we will never relinquish nor forget no matter how long it takes.By the permission of Allah, you will surely taste the bitter consequences of your actions."
 The Somali National Security Minister Kalif Ereg claimed: "Security agencies have obtained information indicating that al-Shabab is now planning to carry out desperate attacks against medical facilities, education centres and other government facilities.The security forces are ready to counter their attacks and we call on people to help the security forces in standing against violent acts."
 Godane was made leader of Al_Shabab after a US drone strike had killed his predecessor in 2008. The president of Somalia Sheikh Mohamud announced a 45-day amnesty for any militants who renounced membership in Al-Shabab. The US had placed a bounty of $7 million dollars on Godane.
The US has supported the African Union force that has managed to drive Al-Shabab out of the capital Mogadishu and a number of other towns since an offensive in 2011. However, Al-Shabab itself mounts frequent attacks on government facilities in Mogadishu and even in neighboring countries that have provided troops to attack them in Somalia. The most sensational attack was on the Westgate mall in Nairobi Kenya on September 21, 2013. The attack resulted in 67 killed including the 4 gunmen and more than 175 wounded. Godane had claimed Al-Shabab's responsibility for that attack.
The US drone strike is part of Operation Indian Ocean that began last July. Somali and African Union troops with support from drone strikes launched an offensive aimed at retaking towns and villages now under control of Al Shabab. Ten other militants were claimed to have been killed in the drone strike, including an operations leader, a financial official, and a military strategist according to a US security official.
  Revenge attacks have already started with attacks on two convoys killing at least 12. There are reports that Americans were part of the convoy. A recent video report is appended.

Sudan and South Sudan agree on sharing oil

African Union mediator Thabo Mbeki reports that Sudan and South Sudan have agreed on how they will share the oil riches Sudan controlled before South Sudan gained independence.

After a protracted civil war between mostly Muslim north Sudan with separatists in the south who are mostly Christian a Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the National Congress Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement was reached in 2005. However the peace was fragile as many tribal and political conflicts continued exacerbated by disagreements about the location of the border and control of oil facilities.
A referendum on South Sudan independence was held in January of 2011. A large majority in the south chose independence. However in the region of Abyei a separate referendum to decide whether it will join Sudan in the north or South Sudan has yet to be held.
Darfur has continued as a region of conflict, the border remains undefined, and until the recent agreement oil has been a divisive issue leading to further conflict. Even so some steps are being taken towards peace with former combatants being reintegrated into society. The agreement on sharing oil resources is a further step forward.
The African Union mediator Thabo Mbekin said:
"The parties have agreed on all of the financial arrangements regarding oil, so that's done,""The oil will be flowing," "What will remain, given that there is an agreement, is to then discuss the next steps as to when the oil companies should be asked to prepare for resumption of production and export,"Mbeki gave no details as to the agreement nor did he predict when production would resume along with exports. Mbeki also reported that the two sides had set a deadline of Sept. 22 for resolving outstanding issues such as security.
The oil dispute began when Juba in South Sudan shut down production after Sudan expropriated millions of barrels as compensation for what Sudan claimed were unpaid fees..
Difficulties still remain. A spokesperson for the Sudanese delegation said:
The agreement does not fulfil the ambitions of both sides.. implementation will start after understandings on security issues."
Border demarcation and security issues still remain as well as the status of the Abyei region. In April of this year conflict along the border almost escalated into full scale warfare. Up to 170,000 people have fled to the south during the conflict.
Hillary Clinton has just arrived in South Sudan's capital Juba on Friday. She offered support for the government of South Sudan. The U.S. helped guide the south through negotiations with the north. While many issues remain to be settled at least the oil agreement is a step forward.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/330062#ixzz22d3kvxNI

African Union wants new government formed in Mali

 The  Peace and Security Council of  the African Union is critical of the transitional government set up in Mali after the coup leader Captain Sanogo handed over power to a transitional civilian government. Sanogo and his comrades retained considerable influence and Sanogo was given the title of former head of state together with a salary.
    The Peace and Security Council(PSC) called on the ex-junta members to stop interfering in the government. In fact the group went further and called for the "effective dissolution" of the former junta group and an end to its "unacceptable interference" in the government's transition process.
      The situation is dire in northern Mali as the entire territory is now occupied by the Ansar Dine group who are radical Islamists.  The original coup in March that overthrew a democratically elected president was justified by that government's inability to put down rebels in the north. After the coup the north was occupied first by the Tuareg who now have been driven out by radical Islamists said to be associated with Al Qaeda.. The Islamists have vandalized historical sites in Timbuktu. Until there is a more stable government in the south there is not likely to be any drive to recover the north of the country. For more see this article..