Petraeus: Iraq Plan Won't Succeed by September

From some of the squawks about the Iraqi govt. taking the opportunities offered by the "occupiers" you might get the idea that some politicians might be reconsidering withdrawal or at least partial withdrawal. The idea that the US will leave Iraq free to decide its own future without considerable US influence -it would be called meddling if it were Iran or Syria involved-- is entirely unreal. Just look at the expenditures on bases and the Green Zone and the US Embassy.
It seems that the US public has endless patience so far. I am surprised there is not more protest and action against the war.

Petraeus Says Iraq Plan Won't Succeed By September (Update2)

By Demian McLean

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- The odds of building a stable Iraqi government by September are slim, even with the addition of 30,000 U.S. troops to give lawmakers in Baghdad security, said the top U.S. general in the Middle East country.

The ``aggregate level'' of violence has not diminished since the troop increase began five months ago, General David Petraeus said in an interview on ``Fox News Sunday.'' Asked whether he thought the strategy could succeed by early September when he's due to report to Congress, Petraeus was negative.

``I do not, no. I think we have a lot of heavy lifting to do,'' he said. ``This is a tough effort.''

Lawmakers in Congress, including the top Republican in the U.S. Senate, said they won't tolerate the lack of progress.

``The Iraqi government has been a pretty big disappointment,'' Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican and minority leader, said on CBS's ``Face the Nation'' show. ``We've given them an enormous opportunity here, over the last four years, to have a normal country. And our commitment will not be there forever.''

Iraqi politicians have failed to deliver on promises to craft laws that would share Iraq's oil revenue, hold local elections, disarm sectarian militias and settle political differences that are paralyzing government.

``So far there have not been consequences,'' Democrat Carl Levin of Michigan, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on the same show. ``The only hope is if they understand that we're going to begin to leave.''

Iraq `Feels Pressure'

Iraq's government ``feels the pressure that it has to move faster,'' Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said today on CNN's ``Late Edition.''

``Some of the issues being debated and discussed are extensional issues related to the future of Iraq, future generations,'' Zebari said. ``We must get them right instead of, you know, forcing them by certain timetable and soon.''

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said last week the Senate will consider four measures later this month as part of a continuing effort to force President George W. Bush to reduce U.S. involvement in the war.

Democrats, Levin said today, would once again seek legislation to ``set a timetable for the reduction of American troops starting in about 120 days.''

Baghdad Security

Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, the senior U.S. ground commander in Iraq, said yesterday that security forces have full control in less than half the capital.

Only about 40 percent of Baghdad ``is really safe on a routine basis'' -- with about 30 percent lacking control and a further 30 percent suffering ``a high level of violence,'' the Associated Press reported, citing an interview with Odierno.

Petraeus today noted that U.S. troops have opened a new offensive against al-Qaeda ``sanctuaries'' in Baghdad, areas where the terrorist group ``has established car bomb factories and other bases.''

``We have to really focus on 30 percent of those Baghdad neighborhoods'' which ``are under the threat of both al-Qaeda and the extremist militias,'' Petraeus said.

September `Snapshot'

Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, are slated to give a progress report in September.

``We'll provide a snapshot of where we are at that time, and it will be a forthright assessment of what we've achieved and what we haven't achieved,'' Petraeus said.

Crocker, appearing on NBC's ``Meet the Press,'' said conditions now present ``a mixed picture but certainly, by not any means, a hopeless one.''

Crocker said he and Petraeus would also ``provide an assessment of what the consequences might be if we pursue other directions.

``Iraq doesn't exist in a vacuum,'' Crocker said. ``We have the issue of the neighbors, particularly Iran and Syria, playing distinctly unhelpful roles. We've got to consider what could happen, depending on the decisions that are made back home.''

Congressional Democrats were rebuffed in their earlier attempt to force Bush to change Iraq policy when the president vetoed about $100 billion in emergency war spending because it was tied to a withdrawal of U.S. troops.

After lawmakers failed to override the veto, they approved a military spending bill that didn't include any binding restrictions on Bush's conduct of the war. Bush is likely to veto any proposal that forces a troop withdrawal.

``We will try again, because we must try again,'' Levin said. ``We have got to change this course.'' Once again, he said, Democrats will seek a timetable for withdrawal that would include ``a transition to a more limited mission'' which would include counterterrorism and training the Iraqi army.

Asked whether enough Republicans would switch their votes to enable the Senate to override a veto, Levin said ``there's a lot of unease among my Republican colleagues with just staying the current course and just accepting another vague report'' saying the troop buildup is having mixed success.

To contact the reporter on this story: Demian McLean in Washington at dmclean8@bloomberg.net .