Commander of eastern-based Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar threatens to attack Tripoli

(May 18)The international community applauded the move by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar to join the political process after he met with the head of the Presidential Council (PC), Faiez Serraj, of the UN-back Government of National Accord in Abu Dhabi recently.

In spite of the fact that an agreement was said to be reached, and was to be confirmed in talks last week, no agreement has been reached. Doubts were raised about the agreement. Some of Haftar's remarks to a crowd celebrating the third anniversary of Operation Dignity show that Haftar is determined to carry on with that military activity designed to rid Libya of Islamists whom he considers terrorists. Haftar includes among such groups militias supporting the GNA. To a considerable extent Haftar's Operation Dignity represented the start of a continuing conflict between many militia groups that continues to this day. Haftar's Operation Dignity or Karama started in May of 2014 by attacks upon rival Islamist militia groups in Benghazi. It also included attacking and burning the parliament buildings in Tripoli.

At the third anniversary celebration Haftar threatened to drive the forces some of which protect the GNA out of Tripoli: “We will not leave Tripoli, our capital, a safe haven for terrorists; our people will only be at rest when the capital returns to the homeland." This is entirely inconsistent with the pursuit of a political settlement based upon an amended Libyan Political Agreemetn( LPA). In fact it represents a military solution that supporters of the GNA and the UN envoy claim is impossible. They claim that everyone agrees that a solution must be based upon the LPA.

Haftar also criticized the international community for not lifting the ban on arms sales to his Libyan National Army even though the House of Representatives government (HoR) that appointed him is not the recognized government of Libya by the UN but rather the rival GNA. He also describes the LPA a conspiracy: “The army will not sell the blood of our martyrs, we will not submit to the international conspiracy, we will not be part of it.” Yet he is said to be negotiating an agreement on the basis of this conspiracy.

The above account is based on reports from the Libya Observer that is anti-Haftar and still refers to him as a "renegade general" but the Libya Herald, which is not in general anti-Haftar, also reports on the anniversary speech by Haftar. The report speaks of Haftar claiming that he would not leave Tripoli to the "rogue criminals and abusers" running rampant in the city a description that fits in with the Observer claim he threatened to drive them out and return the city to the "homeland". The Herald describes the celebration as a well-organized impressive display of parades, heavily armed vehicles and an air show. It involved 12,000 members of the LNA. Although PM of the HoR was present early in the celebration he was not present at the main event where Haftar made his speech. The UN special envoy Martin Kobler was not there nor were any foreign officials.

It should be clear that Haftar was more or less forced into his political activity and meetings with Faiez Serraj head of the Presidential Council of the rival GNA. He is using it as a means to build up his support. He no doubt knows that Serraj will never be able to convince most members of the PC and State High Council that he should remain head of the LIbyan Armed Forces or a member of the PC as his side has demanded. The failure of negotiations he hopes will gain support for his own solution and "fight against terrorism". A key part of the agreement with Serraj is a ceasefire but there are still clashes in the south between troops loyal to the rival governments.

US would consider talks with North Korea but only under certain conditions

The United States is willing to consider talks with North Korea but it puts conditions on such talks that are unlikely to be accepted by North Korea.

(May 17)U.S. envoy to the UN, Nikki Haley, told reporters just prior to a UN Security Council meeting at which the UN is considering new sanctions against North Korea: "We are willing to talk but not until we see a total stop of the nuclear process and of any test there." So if North Korea is willing to stop taking actions to defend itself then the U.S. might talk to them. Those conditions do not provide much incentive for the North Koreans to try and have talks with the U.S. No doubt the U.S. would like to talk about verification of the dismantling of the North`s nuclear and missile program. If North Korea cooperates the U.S. could possibly support reduction in sanctions.

As the North is almost certain to reject the conditions for talks, the U.S. will pursue punishing it by ensuring that the UN imposes harsher sanctions. Haley said that the U.S. and China are working together on a new resolution targeting North Korea: "That's what we are working on now. We don't have it done yet. Absolutely, sanctions is something that we are looking at and we are going to continue to see where that takes us."

While there have been many test failures in the North Korean missile program some experts claim that the failures of many individual tests do not mean the program itself is a failure. Joseph Bermudez Jr. an analyst at the U.S. firm Allsource Analysis said to the Wall Street Journal: “What’s more concerning is not an individual test or two individual tests, it’s that they’re approaching their missile development in a very pragmatic way. What they’re doing is exactly right. They are testing, and they are testing often. This is the way you really learn how to develop a ballistic missile, and that’s what worries me.”

One test missile landed just 60 miles from Russia's eastern coast Saturday night. While Putin said that the west should stop trying to intimidate Kim Jong-un and find a peaceful solution to the situation Kim should not build his nuclear arsenal. Putin said Russia was categorically opposed to any expansion of the "club of nuclear powers".

On last Sunday, May 14, North Korea tested the Hwasong-12 the longest range missile it has ever tested and was claimed to be capable of carrying a "heavy nuclear warhead". The missile was launched at an unusually high trajectory. It flew to an altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers, and traveled 787 kilometers before landing in the Sea of Japan. At maximum distance its range would be about 4,500 kilometers. North Korea said that the test was a legitimate defense against threats from a hostile US. However the UN has passed several resolutions that bar North Korea from developing a nuclear weapons program and missile technology but the North has paid no attention to the resolutions. The UN Security Council has often described North Korea's actions as provocative and a threat to world peace. Of course, U.S. actions with South Korea involving this year exercises that emulate an invasion of North Korea are never regarded as provocative nor is the recent deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system or sending an aircraft carrier with support vessels to the peninsula. South Korean defense minister Han Min-koo said that the North Korean missile program was progressing faster than expected. He said the launch had been detected by the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system.

The U.S. has taken an aggressive approach to North Korea having claimed that a policy of strategic patience had obviously failed. However, South Korea's new president Moon Jae-in wants to engage with the North and soothe tensions between the US and China. The U.S. policy is to further isolate North Korea and increase sanctions whereas Moon wants a policy of engagement to attempt to improve relations between the North and South. During the campaign Moon was quite critical of the deployment of the THAAD system. However, it is already in place and working. It may be difficult for Moon to go counter to US desires. North Korea's testing of the new missile system may make it more difficult for Moon to follow along the path of reconciliation, However, in his first key appointments Moon appointed supporters of the earlier Sunshine Policy of improving ties with the North, to the positions of prime minister and head of intelligence. There could be friction between the U.S. and South Korea as well as the North.