Trump meets with South Korea leader Moon Jae-In as he receives new options for North Korea

CNN reports that revised US military options have been prepared for President Trump according to two US military officials.

The options will be presented to Trump if the North conducts an underground nuclear test or a ballistic missile test which indicates that the regime has made significant progress towards developing weapons that could reach the US according to the officials. The US National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster also confirmed the options had already been prepared:

"What we have to do is prepare all options because the President has made clear to us that he will not accept a nuclear power in North Korea and a threat that can target the United States and target the American population. The threat is much more immediate now. We can't repeat the same failed approach of the past," McMaster said. The President has directed us to not do that and to prepare a range of options, including a military option, which nobody wants to take."The new South Korean president Moon Jae-in has been meeting with President Trump. McMaster said that the two would discuss a new approach to the North. McMaster said that there was recognition that there needed to be more pressure on the regime and that one would see that happen in coming days and weeks.

A joint statement just released starts by affirming the defense of the Republic of Korea(ROK) through the US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty. In a provocative statement Trump said that the US was committed to extend deterrence to the ROK " drawing on the full range of U.S. military capabilities, both conventional and nuclear." The mention of the possible use of nuclear weapons is surely provocative to put it mildly. The US has about 28,000 troops in South Korea at present.

The THAAD anti-missile system is not mentioned. The US deployed the system before Moon was elected. He had opposed it as had China and Russia. After Moon was elected, the US was planning to install more of the THAAD systems but Moon suspended this until after the results of a probe. However, the statement does say: "The ROK will continue to acquire the critical military capabilities necessary to lead the combined defense, and detect, disrupt, destroy, and defend against North Korean nuclear and missile threats, including through interoperable Kill-Chain, Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), and other Alliance systems." Trump was apparently angered by Moon's suspension of further deployments. By including "other Alliance systems" Trump can claim that Moon is committed to deployment of more THAAD systems.

The two leaders agreed to coordinate closely to achieve a complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearlization of the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner. This is said at the same time as the options being presented to Trump include a military option. The statement expresses agreement on reactions to the North's weapon's programs:"The two leaders called on North Korea to refrain from provocative, destabilizing actions and rhetoric, and to make the strategic choice to fulfill its international obligations and commitments. The two leaders affirmed that North Korea’s nuclear tests and unprecedented number of ballistic missile tests constitute direct violations of multiple United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs) and highlight the accelerating threat its programs pose to international peace and security. "Of course the US , Russia, China, and others having nuclear weapons and far more advanced missile programs are no threat to international peace and security. Even Israel can have nuclear bombs which it developed in spite of international condemnation at the time In December of 2006:Iran demanded Tuesday that the UN Security Council condemn what it said was Israel's clandestine development and possession of nuclear weapons and "compel" Israel to abandon its nuclear arms and place all its nuclear facilities under UN inspection. If Israel refused to comply, Iran said, the council must take "resolute action" under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which authorizes a range of measures from diplomatic and economic sanctions to military action.Iran's demands went nowhere of course since Israel's powerful supporters did not want them to.

The two leaders said that sanctions are actually a tool of diplomacy and that the door was always open for dialogue with North Korea under the right circumstances. Sanctions are hardly a form of diplomacy since they use coercion as a way of forcing consent not negotiation. Perhaps war is just another means of diplomacy but using violence and force. Some time ago, Trump made waves by saying he would be honoured to meet Kim Jong-Un under the right circumstances and even praising Kim to some extent. While the circumstances were never made clear there are certain demands the Trump administration has made: "Trump did not make clear what preconditions would have to be met for such a meeting to occur, but his administration has demanded a freeze on nuclear and long-range missile tests as well as a readiness to negotiate North Korea’s complete nuclear disarmament. " Trump made it clear that circumstances at present were not suitalble for talks.

The joint statement said that neither the US nor the ROK maintained a hostile policy towards the North and could offer North Korea a better future "if it choose the right path". Given that the ROK and the US carry out joint exercises that even have involved scenarios akin to invasion of the North and that the US has moved two aircraft carriers to the area to show force, and given also that the US and ROK have supported harsh sanctions against the North, Kim Jong-un may not agree that the US and ROK have no hostile policy to it. What the two are saying is that if the North would do what the two want then they might actually try to help the North.

Unlike Trump who insists the earlier policy of the US of strategic patience did not work and must be superceded, Moon is in favor of dialogue with the North. The statement says that President Trump supports Moon's moves including attempts to deal with humanitarian issues. The statement also emphasized the importance of developing US-ROK-Japan trilateral relations. The two agreed to discuss furthering cooperation at the G20 meeting in July. Moon invited Trump to visit the ROK this year. Trump accepted the invistation. Perhaps he will face protests and the visit will be called off as has his visit to the UK.

One of the issues that the two leaders discussed, was the 2012 bilateral free trade agreement which Trump demands be renegotiated. South Korea has a trade surplus of $17 billion with the US. Trump wants barriers to the export of US goods to the South to be removed. Speaking alongside Moon in the Oval Office Trump said: "We are renegotiating a trade deal right now as we speak with South Korea and hopefully it will be an equitable deal, it will be a fair deal for both parties. We want something that will be very good for the American worker." On the surface at least, Moon appears to have achieved little and has decided to downplay any disagreements with Trump.

US would consider talks with North Korea but only under certain conditions

The United States is willing to consider talks with North Korea but it puts conditions on such talks that are unlikely to be accepted by North Korea.

(May 17)U.S. envoy to the UN, Nikki Haley, told reporters just prior to a UN Security Council meeting at which the UN is considering new sanctions against North Korea: "We are willing to talk but not until we see a total stop of the nuclear process and of any test there." So if North Korea is willing to stop taking actions to defend itself then the U.S. might talk to them. Those conditions do not provide much incentive for the North Koreans to try and have talks with the U.S. No doubt the U.S. would like to talk about verification of the dismantling of the North`s nuclear and missile program. If North Korea cooperates the U.S. could possibly support reduction in sanctions.

As the North is almost certain to reject the conditions for talks, the U.S. will pursue punishing it by ensuring that the UN imposes harsher sanctions. Haley said that the U.S. and China are working together on a new resolution targeting North Korea: "That's what we are working on now. We don't have it done yet. Absolutely, sanctions is something that we are looking at and we are going to continue to see where that takes us."

While there have been many test failures in the North Korean missile program some experts claim that the failures of many individual tests do not mean the program itself is a failure. Joseph Bermudez Jr. an analyst at the U.S. firm Allsource Analysis said to the Wall Street Journal: “What’s more concerning is not an individual test or two individual tests, it’s that they’re approaching their missile development in a very pragmatic way. What they’re doing is exactly right. They are testing, and they are testing often. This is the way you really learn how to develop a ballistic missile, and that’s what worries me.”

One test missile landed just 60 miles from Russia's eastern coast Saturday night. While Putin said that the west should stop trying to intimidate Kim Jong-un and find a peaceful solution to the situation Kim should not build his nuclear arsenal. Putin said Russia was categorically opposed to any expansion of the "club of nuclear powers".

On last Sunday, May 14, North Korea tested the Hwasong-12 the longest range missile it has ever tested and was claimed to be capable of carrying a "heavy nuclear warhead". The missile was launched at an unusually high trajectory. It flew to an altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers, and traveled 787 kilometers before landing in the Sea of Japan. At maximum distance its range would be about 4,500 kilometers. North Korea said that the test was a legitimate defense against threats from a hostile US. However the UN has passed several resolutions that bar North Korea from developing a nuclear weapons program and missile technology but the North has paid no attention to the resolutions. The UN Security Council has often described North Korea's actions as provocative and a threat to world peace. Of course, U.S. actions with South Korea involving this year exercises that emulate an invasion of North Korea are never regarded as provocative nor is the recent deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system or sending an aircraft carrier with support vessels to the peninsula. South Korean defense minister Han Min-koo said that the North Korean missile program was progressing faster than expected. He said the launch had been detected by the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system.

The U.S. has taken an aggressive approach to North Korea having claimed that a policy of strategic patience had obviously failed. However, South Korea's new president Moon Jae-in wants to engage with the North and soothe tensions between the US and China. The U.S. policy is to further isolate North Korea and increase sanctions whereas Moon wants a policy of engagement to attempt to improve relations between the North and South. During the campaign Moon was quite critical of the deployment of the THAAD system. However, it is already in place and working. It may be difficult for Moon to go counter to US desires. North Korea's testing of the new missile system may make it more difficult for Moon to follow along the path of reconciliation, However, in his first key appointments Moon appointed supporters of the earlier Sunshine Policy of improving ties with the North, to the positions of prime minister and head of intelligence. There could be friction between the U.S. and South Korea as well as the North.