Showing posts with label venezuela. Show all posts
Showing posts with label venezuela. Show all posts

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Venezuela arrests two Americans in plot to kidnap President Maduro

(May 7) Luke Denman the US citizen who was arrested in Venezuela after a failed incursion described a plot to kidnap President Nicolas Maduro and fly him to the United States.

The alleged plot
Denman outlined the plot on Venezuelan state media. Denman said that he and others who work for the Florida-based Silvercorp Corporation were to seize control of Caracas international airport and then capture President Maduro take him to the airport and fly him to the United States. Benham claimed that there were about 50 people trained for the operation.
Silvercorp for its part has claimed that their operation was paid for by Juan Guaido the US-supported coup leader who declared himself and it recognized as the legitimate president by the US and many of its allies. If this is true than no doubt funds for the operation came from the US. Venezuelan authorities on Monday arrested Denman, together with fellow U.S. citizen Airan Berry and 11 others. Maduro called the operation a failed plot coordinated with Washington designed to oust him.
Denman explaine
d on TV the operation's relation to Silvercorp: "Denman said he and Berry were contracted by Jordan Goudreau, a U.S. military veteran who leads Silvercorp, to train 50 to 60 Venezuelans in Colombia in January for the operation. Goudreau supplied the group with equipment."
Guaido and US deny involvement
The US has denied any direct role in the operation. This leaves open a possible indirect role. Guaido has denied any ties to Silvercorp. Even though the US has denied any involvement in the operation the US State Dept. has vowed to do everything possible to release Americans involved in the attack. With Denman admitting the group intended to kidnap President Maduro there is little likelihood that Americans involved would be released.
Venezuelan authorities 
authorities claim they arrested the group by the isolated coastal town of Chuao, about 60 kilometers (40 miles) west of Caracas’ airport, after locals raised suspicions. Venezuelan authorities published photos that they claimed was the group's boat. It was loaded with ammunition, weapons, and communications equipment. Eight people involved in the same operation were reported killed on Monday in La Guaira state near the capital Caracas the government said.
Previously published in the Digital Journal

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Trump diverts $40 million in Central American humanitarian aid to help Guaido coup in Venezuela

(July 17) The Trump administration has informed the US Congress that it intends to divert $40 million in humanitarian aid for Central American countries and give it to the Venezuelan opposition in support of Juan Guaido and his US-financed coup attempt.
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USAID to dispense the funds
USAID is nominally a humanitarian aid body but it is often used to subsidize covert actions. USAID informed the US Congress that the diverted $40 million would be used to pay for salaries and other expenses of the Guaido rebel government budget.
Funding the Guaido attempted coup claimed to be in the US national interest
USAID argues that the funding of Guaido's "government" is in the US national interest. Guaido declared himself the interim president of Venezuela and he was immediately recognized as such by the US and many other countries. So far, however, the government led by Nicolas Maduro has managed to remain in power and still has the support of the armed forces. The Venezuelan economy is in very bad shape to a considerable extent caused by US sanctions.
Reuters describes in more detail the purpose of the funds: "The congressional notification from the U.S. Agency for International Development said the money will instead be used for salaries, travel, communications equipment, technical assistance and training for the management of a government budget and other needs for the Venezuelan opposition.The memorandum, dated July 11, says the funds are necessary because of “a significant, exigent event in the U.S. national interest, specifically the rapidly evolving crisis in Venezuela.”
Maduro said the payment gave even further proof that Guaido is a puppet funded by the US.
Trump cut could further punish Central American countries
Aid cuts further punish countries such as El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras all three of which Trump has been punishing because they send immigrants up through Mexico to the US border. As a recent Reuters report notes: "U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on Monday cut hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, after Trump blasted the three countries because thousands of their citizens had sought asylum at the U.S. border with Mexico." The appended video also report on the earlier cuts.


Previously published in the Digital Journal

Friday, July 5, 2019

Peace talks in Norway on Venezuela end without any agreement

Norway claimed some unspecified progress may have been made in negotiations between the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido the self-declared interim president and leader of the US-supported coup attempt.

No agreement reached
The two sides came to no agreement. It is unclear whether or when there will be further talks although Guaido claimed there would be according to a recent Digital Journal article. However, it is difficult to see how this could happen when the idea of negotiation for Guaido involves Maduro stepping down which would in effect be surrendering to the coup. There is no mention of Guaido also relinquishing his position.
Guaido says: "Despite agreeing to talks, Guaido insisted in his statement that the opposition's aims have not changed. 'We've ratified our plan: the end of the usurpation, a transitional government and free elections, as a route to solve the tragedy our Venezuela is suffering today,' said Guaido. He also insisted that the Oslo talks 'don't stop the opposition's efforts in every constitutional area' to force Maduro from power."
Guaido's office was quick to respond to the end of talks
The Norwegian Foreign Ministry urged both sides to use discretion in comments after the talks, so as not to damage further progress. However, Guaido responded quickly saying the talks had ratified a road-map for ousting President Maduro and that the plan included a transition government and free elections. What Guaido fails to mention is that Maduro failed to agree to such a deal.
The position of Guaido, supported by the US, is that Guaido is the interim president as he declared himself back in January. Several months after Guaido was recognized by the US and fifty other countries as interim president, Maduro is still in control but the US continues to insist he must leave unconditionally. There is little room for any genuine negotiation except as a form of surrender. Indeed according to a recent article: "US officials have opposed the Oslo talks as well, insisting there is nothing to be discussed with President Maduro, and expressing bewilderment that Maduro still believes he is president simply because he was elected as such."

Previously published in the Digital Journal

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Venezuela funnels oil money through Rosneft to avoid US sanctions

Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro is funneling funds from the sale of Venezuelan oil through the Russian state energy giant Rosneft. This avoids the sanctions the US has designed to economically cripple Venezuela and drive Maduro from power.

How the system works

The Moscow Times describes how the system works: "Under the scheme uncovered by Reuters, Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA has started passing invoices from its oil sales to Rosneft. The Russian energy giant pays PDVSA immediately at a discount to the sale price – avoiding the usual 30-to-90 day timeframe for completing oil transactions – and collects the full amount later from the buyer, according to the documents and sources. "PDVSA is delivering its accounts receivable to Rosneft," said a source at the Venezuelan state firm with knowledge of the deals, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation."
The sales are the latest sign of the growing dependence of Venezuela's cash-strapped government on Russia. As the US tries to uses economic warfare against Venezuela it is only natural that Venezuela will be driven into the waiting arms of Russia. The US is responsible in effect for the increasing presence of Russia in Venezuela. China will be interested in developing closer relations with Venezuela too as this anti-Maduro article notes.
Venezuela's economy was already suffering from years of depression with a sharp decline in oil production and oil prices. It had been struggling to finance imports and government spending. Washington has added to Venezuela's problem by waging what is in effect economic warfare on the state. There were tough restrictions placed on the state oil company PDVSA in January this year, added to the sanctions and other measures the US has taken.
As a recent Digital Journal report notes US economic warfare now involves sanctioning the Venezuelan Central Bank: "Treasury is designating the Central Bank of Venezuela to prevent it from being used as a tool of the illegitimate Maduro regime, which continues to plunder Venezuelan assets and exploit government institutions to enrich corrupt insiders," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement that accompanied Bolton's speech."
Oil exports crucial for Venezuelan economy

Oil makes up more than 90 percent of exports from Venezuela , a member of OPEC. Income from oil exports constitutes the majority of the state's income. Maduro is right when he accuses the US of waging economic warfare against Venezuela. It is.
This his forced Maduro to try and use US adversaries to circumvent US actions especially a ban on clients paying PDVSA in dollars. Maduro has been in talks with Russia to get around the ban since January. Russia has publicly condemned the US actions as illegal and said it would work with Venezuela to get around them.
Major buyers of Venezuelan oil such as India's Reliance Industries PDVSA's largest cash-paying client has been asked to take part in the scheme by paying Rosneft for its oil. Perhaps the US will now sanction banks dealing with Rosneft. Rosneft did not reply to a request for comment. Venezuela' oil ministry and its information ministry did not respond either.
Russia has a large steak in Venezuela oil
Russia loaned Venezuela almost $16 billion since 2006. The loans are being repaid in oil shipments. Russia has also taken significant stakes in petroleum products. The unusual payment arrangement with Rosneft is one of a series of devices the Maduro government has adopted to obtain cash. This has included selling off Central Bank gold reserves. The UK has refused the Venezuelan government access to its own funds and the US is also keeping Venezuela from its own cash as described in a January Digital Journal article. However, US officials are frustrated at Maduro's ability to counter some of the US economic warfare features. Officials had been hoping for a more dramatic impact that would result in the overthrow of Maduro and the success of their coup with leader Juan Guaido.
Economic warfare has created a crisis in Venezuela

Many western countries have joined in support of the US attempted coup although the UN still recognizes the Maduro regime and agencies such as the Red Cross are working with the Maduro government. Russia, China, Cuba, and others have defended Maduro at the UN. They have provided assistance as well with Russia providing military assistance. This has riled up the US. The US has its own policies to blame for resulting in Russian and Chinese investment in Venezuela which has resulted in their strong support for Maduro. Venezuelan oil exports have halved from the 2.8 million barrels per day when former president Hugo Chavez launched his revolution two decades ago.
Yet the Venezuelan people have so far been able to resist US aggression and fend off the attempted coup. Russia has been a big help in making this possible much to the annoyance of the US.
Rosneft playing a key role in Venezuelan oil
Rosneft has been a key investor in Venezuelan oil. In February of this year, Rosneft estimated its stakes in Venezuelan projects at $2.11 billion. Now Rosneft is also helping by providing cash that will keep PDVSA operational. It can use its large trading division to give it the flexibility to collect from PDVSA clients.
Some within PDVSA are angry with the costs of dealing with Rosneft according to a source, anonymous of course: "Rosneft is buying our oil for cheap and selling us very expensive fuel in exchange. We always owe them money." The PDVSA really has no choice if it wants to exports its oil at all. Why does the source not mention US sanctions as a factor. Without US sanctions Rosneft would not be able to do what it is doing. It would be uneconomical.
The US feels it has some right under the Monroe doctrine to itself exploit Venezuelan oil. While it believes its policies will force Venezuela to return to the arms of the United States it is actually forcing Venezuela into the arms of Russia and China.


Previously published in the Digital Journal

Monday, September 10, 2012

Hugo Chavez leads in Venezuela presidential election


In spite of recently receiving cancer treatments Hugo Chavez leads in a recent poll. The presidential election will be held October 7.
After a failed coup in 2002 and a boycott of national elections this time around the opposition is taking a more sophisticated approach. Henrique Capriles Radonsk, the main opposition candidate, says he is a reformer and free of any ideology even though he is a member of the conservative Justice First Party. That party stresses private investment and is critical of state economic controls. These policies are diametrically opposed to those of Chavez.
Opposition leaders now support rather than oppose the 1999 constitution as they did when it was adopted overwhelmingly in a popular referendum. Some Chavez programs have won him support among the poor. The Housing Mission has built thousands of homes and has involved barrio residents both in planning and execution of the construction rather than having the plans made and executed by outsiders and bureaucrats. The opposition is concerned about their candidates' failure to increase his support.
The Datanalisis survey gave Chavez 43.6% of the vote as against 27.7 per cent for Capriles. 62.4% rated Chavez' performance as above average against 29.4% who consider it poor. The polling company is owned by Luis Leon who is a staunch supporter of the opposition. It is doubtful that he is tinkering with the results unless he wants to fool Chavez supporters into thinking he is safely ahead!
Chavez' lead is rather surprising given doubts about his health. The opposition points out that there is no obvious successor to Chavez should his health again fail. They point to the Capriles' youthful energy in contrast to the frail Chavez.
Even Chavez has finally begun to admit that he needs to delegate power more. A former adviser the Spanish academic Juan Carlos Monedero warns of the danger of what he calls "hyperleadership". To me that sounds like a fancy name for the cult of personality. During Chavez' extended medical treatments in Cuba several top leaders filled the gap including the foreign minister Nicolas Maduro and an executive vice president Elias Jaua. There is also the National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello.
The UN Economic Commission on Latin America claims a 21% reduction in poverty between 1999 and 2010. However many in the middle and upper classes do not like the changes Chavez has brought about. This is reflected in a poll by the Venezuela Institute of Data Analysis. Relatively privileged voters favor Capriles over Chavez by 52.5% to 32.5%. To me it seems surprising that he actually has as much support in that group. However the government has passed some programs to help the middle class to dampen concern that he will eliminate private property and is mostly concerned for the poor.
For his part Capriles claims he is forward looking and does not want to turn the clock back to past policies even though those policies were implemented by those who support his candidacy. Capriles even pledges that he would not scrap but improve on Chavez' social programs. Perhaps he intends to privatize them! The results of the presidential election will help determine whether Venezuela continues with the leftist, interventionist policies of Chavez or more market friendly policies and attempts to encourage more foreign investment as would no doubt happen if Capriles should win. This is just a sample of a long analysis of the situation in Venezuela that can be found here and here. There seems little commentary or coverage of the Venezuelan election in the U.S. The appended video is from an Iranian TV outlet!

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Venezuela makes its own drones



Many countries make or have  unmanned aerial vehicles but recently President Hugo Chavez showed off the first model made in Venezuela. The drone is not armed but will have military and civilian uses for surveillance.

The drone was made with help from Russia, Iran, and China. During a news meeting with his defense chiefs Chavez said that it is“one of three aircraft that we have made here, and we will continue to manufacture them,”

The drone has a range of 60 miles and can fly up to 10,000 feet. Flight time is only up to 90 minutes. It measures 3 by 4 meters. The drone will be used to monitor pipelines, dams, and other infrastructure in rural areas.

The state company that manufactured the drone is also planning to manufacture rifles, grenades and ammunition. It already manufactures AK 103 assault rifles in a factory developed with Russina aid. For more see this article. Venezuela obviously has a very long way to go to match the drones made in the U.S. or even Israel.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Article by Michael Lebowitz on Socialism.

Lebowitz was in Venezuela for some time. In this article he discuses Vietnam as well which he visited recently. This is from the Socialistproject. Lebowitz is an emeritus professor of economics at Simon Fraser University in B.C. Canada.



The B u l l e t
Socialist Project • E-Bulletin No. 315
February 20, 2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Socialism: the Goal,
the Paths and the Compass
[Presentation of “El Socialismo no Cae del Cielo: Un Neuvo Comienzo” at the 2010 Havana Book Fair, 18 February 2010.]

Michael A. Lebowitz
There's an old saying that if you don't know where you want to go, any road will take you there. As I've said on many occasions, this saying is mistaken. If you don’t know where you want to go, no road will take you there. In other words, you need an understanding of the goal. You need a vision for the future.

Marx had a very clear vision. It was a vision of a society which would permit the full development of human beings – a society which allowed everyone to develop their potential. And, that would occur not because of gifts from above but, rather, as a result of the activity of human beings. This was his concept of revolutionary practice – the simultaneous changing of circumstances and human activity or self change. Human development and practice – this “key link” in Marx reminds us that there are always two products as the result of our activity, the change in circumstances and the change in people themselves. It reminds us that what Marx called rich human beings, socialist human beings, produce themselves only through their own activity.

The Goal

Elementary triangle of socialism.
The Bolivarian Constitution of Venezuela incorporates this concept. It stresses that the goal of society must be the full development of every human being and that participation and protagonism is “the necessary way of achieving the involvement to ensure their complete development, both individual and collective.” In 2007, President Chavez of Venezuela reinforced this vision by introducing what he called “the elementary triangle of socialism.” Social ownership of the means of production, social production organized by workers and production for social needs and purposes make up this triangle.

Firstly, social ownership of the means of production is the way to ensure that our communal, social productivity is directed to the free development of all rather than used to satisfy the private goals of capitalists, groups of producers, or state bureaucrats. Secondly, social production organized by workers permits workers to develop their capacities by combining thinking and doing in the workplace and, thus, to produce not only things but also themselves as self-conscious collective producers. Thirdly, satisfaction of social needs and purposes is the necessary goal of productive activity in the new society because it substitutes for the focus upon self-interest and selfishness an orientation to the needs of others and relations based upon solidarity.

The Paths
This is the vision of the society we want to build. This is where we want to go. And if we don’t know that, no road will take us there. However, knowing where you want to go is not enough. It’s not true that if you do know where you want to go, any road will take you there. Isn’t there a relationship between the goal, and the road you take to get there? Are these independent of each other? For example, can you get to the goal by going in the opposite direction? Do you build social ownership by relying upon capitalist ownership of the means of production and the capitalist monopoly of our social heritage and of the products of our labour? Do you build a society of associated producers and social production by preventing decision-making by workers and retaining the gap between thinking and doing? Do you build a society based upon solidarity, where production is for social needs, by stressing selfishness? In other words, do you go forward by going backwards?

Maybe. Maybe sometimes it is necessary. Socialism does not fall from the sky. It is necessarily rooted in particular societies. We all start from different places – in our development, in our histories. Therefore, there cannot be one single path. All paths will be different. Some will be longer than others. Some will be relatively straight, while others will require switchbacks because of the obstacles along the road. As we have learned, the biggest mistake is thinking that there is one road and one model.

The Compass
But there is a problem. When you are not going directly toward the goal, how do you avoid getting lost? How you avoid the problem of the growth of capital and capitalist interests, the alienation of workers in the process of production and thus an emphasis upon possessing things and consumerism, the growth of self-interest at the expense of solidarity? Some would say that there is no problem as long as we have a compass, as long as we have a directional finder. And that the party is that compass; the party can point in the direction of the goal when obstacles have temporarily forced you to go in the opposite direction.

I agree with that in principle. But I also believe that we need to learn from historical experience that the party is not itself immune, that it does not stand outside society and thus does not always point to the true North. This was certainly the case, for example, in Hungary, Yugoslavia and China. And, not only there. I have just returned from an intense month in Vietnam. There is no question in my mind that under the conditions facing Vietnam in the 1980s, it was essential for them to make a significant change in the path they were on.

The Example of Vietnam
By developing an economy which they describe as a market economy with a socialist orientation, they have succeeded in lifting their people from significant poverty. Whereas previously people were facing starvation, now Vietnam exports food. This is a very important achievement. They have also begun a process of industrialization.

However, there are serious problems. Young people are overwhelmingly oriented toward capitalism. They say openly that Vietnam needs more foreign investment, and they credit that foreign investment with ending poverty. They want capitalism, and they look upon Marxism as having no relevance to their lives. I stress this point because the students we met were not selected randomly. They came largely from the young communists.

And the dominant views increasingly are in fact no different from those in other countries in Southeast Asia: Thailand, Malaysia, and other nearby countries relying upon foreign investment and export oriented industrialization are the basis of constant comparison in Vietnam. In other words, capitalism is winning in Vietnam. There is growing inequality, there is the emergence of millionaires (not as many as in China so far) and there is a significant process of privatization of state-owned industry (which is called equitisation).

And then there is the party, “the socialist orientation.” It is my sense that a growing portion of the party is looking to Sweden and social democracy as the appropriate model. (In fact, this was openly advocated at the conference I attended at the Ho Chi Minh National Political Academy, the Party school.) In other words, an emerging goal is not the socialist vision but, rather, capitalism plus social policies which reduce inequality – a capitalist welfare state.

There is an infection in Vietnam, and the party is not immune to that infection. I suspect that the next Party Congress will involve a struggle over this direction. Some party leaders are very worried about these tendencies. Certainly, the direction of change in the party in recent congresses has been to strengthen capitalist tendencies – for example, they have removed the prohibition on membership in the party by capitalists.

Something has been missing in Vietnam. Missing so far has been a sufficient emphasis upon that participation and protagonism that is “the necessary way” to ensure the complete development of human beings, “both individually and collectively.” While there has been some focus upon grassroots democracy (for example, in Ho Chi Minh City), there has been very little decision-making by workers in workplaces (outside of annual congresses in state-owned industry), and there has been little emphasis upon conscious production for social needs. And, the results are predictable. In the absence of social production organized by workers and production for social needs, the third side of the socialist triangle, social ownership, is withering away. And, increasingly, the human product is people who embrace the logic of capital.

I think that Vietnam reinforces the lesson that every step to the market must be accompanied by two steps in the direction of building a socialist society: building worker decision-making in workplaces and building institutions based upon solidarity. If we recognize that people produce themselves through their activity, then their activity should unleash their potential rather than be left to an orientation to the market and self-interest. This is what I was stressing in Vietnam – that the party needs to create the conditions in which people can develop their capacities as protagonists within their workplaces and their communities, institutions such as the communal councils and workers councils being developed in Venezuela.

I suggest that through such a process of producing rich human beings with confidence and dignity, both the people and the party will be inoculated against the infection that can prevent us from reaching the socialist goal. That won’t be achieved, however, by a one-sided focus upon developing productive forces. In short, we should never forget the essential insight of Che Guevara – the necessity simultaneously to build productive forces and socialist human beings. •

Michael A. Lebowitz is professor emeritus of economics at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada, and the author of Beyond Capital: Marx's Political Economy of the Working Class (also available on Scribd) and Build It Now: Socialism for the Twenty-First Century. This article also published at MRZine.org.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(((( The B u l l e t ))))~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


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Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Venezuela Enters Fifth Consecutive Year of Economic Growth

This is not too surprising given the rise in oil prices. It is interesting that Argentina led South America in social spending although Venezuela intends to increase its own social spending. Venezuela has used price controls in an attempt to make many basic goods affordable by poorer people. In an economy that is basically a capitalist market economy this has caused problems that the government is attempting to mitigate. Unless prices are increased suppliers may not produce enough to meet demand. Unless socialisation of the means of production is more extensive and production planned for need rather than profit it is difficult to see how such problems can be completely solved.

Venezuela Enters Fifth Consecutive Year of Economic Growth
By Chris Carlson
Dec 29, 2007, 17:22

Paraguaná, December 20, 2007, (venezuelanalysis.com) - The Venezuelan
economy enters its fifth consecutive year of sustained growth in 2008,
according to predictions from the Economic Commission for Latin America

(CEPAL). Venezuela had the third fastest growing economy in the region
for 2007, but the growing demand of the domestic market could create
problems of undersupply in 2008, say some analysts.

Venezuela led the region in 2007 with a growth rate of 8.5 percent,
surpassed only by Argentina (8.6 percent) and Panama (9.5 percent), a
CEPAL report said last week. The region as a whole grew by 5.6 percent,

finishing its fifth consecutive year of economic expansion, in spite of

high levels of inflation and social spending that were criticized by
some experts.

The economic expansion is the greatest in 40 years and should continue
through 2008, although at a slightly slower rate, said the report.
CEPAL
attributes the growth in part to the growing demand from China and
India, as well as the recovery of Brazil. As a result, since 2003,
around 31 million Latin Americans have been able to pull themselves out

of poverty.

The economic growth has allowed Venezuela to improve in many respects,
including an improved purchasing power among its population of around 8

percent annually from 2004-2007, only surpassed by Uruguay at 10
percent
annually.

The unemployment rate reached its lowest point in November at 6.3
percent, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), a
decrease of 2.5 percent from 2006, and the formal sector of the economy

showed an increase from 2006, reaching 55.6 percent of the work force.
Venezuela also maintains one of the highest minimum wages in the
region.

The situation has also allowed Venezuela to drastically increase its
social spending, as well as reduce its external debt. Venezuela led the

region in social spending with an expansion of 37 percent in 2006-2007,

surpassed only by Argentina with 43 percent.

The Venezuelan government has approved a budget for 2008 of Bs. 137.5
billion (US$ 63.9 billion) with an emphasis on increased social
spending. 46 percent of the 2008 budget is directed toward social
programs and projects, reported Prensa Latina, with the government
“missions” alone receiving Bs. 5.6 billion (US$ 2.58 billion), a
61.5
percent increase from the 2007 budget.

External debt was reduced by US$ 1 billion during 2007, according to
the
director of the National Office of Public Credit, Luis Davila. Total
external debt is currently US$ 26 billion, said Davila, and will not be

increased in 2008. Internal debt will also be maintained around the
current level of US$ 6 billion in 2008, he said.

But Venezuela’s sustained growth has created an increased demand
among
the population that could create problems in 2008, according to some
analysts. Ex-director of the Central Bank of Venezuela, Domingo Maza
Zavala, warned that 2008 will be a “difficult, complicated, and
unpredictable” year for Venezuela for various reasons, and
recommended
that the government change its policy on price controls.

Zavala warned about the increase of imported goods in recent years, and

insisted that the government needs to take measures in 2008 to assure
supply in the domestic market. In his opinion, the most urgent measure
to be taken is increased flexibility in the government price controls.

“If effective measures aren’t taken to supply the market of the
most-demanded goods, the situation will continue as it is now, with the

consequence that the sectors with lowest income suffer the most,” he
said.

The ex-director of the Central Bank insisted that the government will
need to have dialog with the various productive sectors of the economy
to achieve a successful policy of price controls and supply. He also
warned of continued high inflation (18.6 percent in the first 11 months

of 2007) for which he said the causes have not been attended to.

However, Venezuelan Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas announced on
Wednesday that the national government was analyzing the possibility of

increasing the flexibility of price controls on some goods. Although he

didn’t give details, Cabezas explained that they would be developing
an
“extraordinary plan” for 2008 to supply the domestic market and
control
inflation.

Cabezas noted that last week’s decision to loosen the price controls
on
some types of milk is a part of the government’s plan to make price
controls in general more flexible, but he assured that they would not
totally remove controls.

Since 2003, the national government has maintained price controls on
around 400 basic goods and services to guarantee their supply to all
sectors of the population. National production has increased in recent
years, but imports have also increased due to the growing purchasing
power and demand of the Venezuelan population.

The Venezuelan economy is expected to continue to grow in 2008 at a
rate
of between 7 and 8 percent.

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/3023

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Robin Hahnel on Venezuela

This is a very long analytical article from the Monthly Review. I have simply excerpted the first couple of paragraphs that deal with mainstream press bias when reporting on events in Venezuela.


Venezuela: Not What You Think
by Robin Hahnel
In the case of Hugo Chavez and the Venezuelan Bolivarian Revolution, the mainstream media and politicians in the United States have elevated their game of demonizing all who oppose US foreign policy and business interests to a higher level of absurdity than usual. According to the mainstream media, the only newsworthy stories in Venezuela are one sided diatribes lifted from the discredited, opposition-owned media in Venezuela. For example, we read about Chavez shutting down opposition TV stations. We hear that Chavez is rewriting the Venezuelan Constitution so he can be President for life. Chavez is a dictator, QED.

All the badly outgunned, alternative media in the US can do is try its best to rebut the bias in the storylines defined by the mainstream media. The tiny fraction of Americans who visit the alternative media discover that Chavez has submitted a proposal to change the Venezuelan Constitution in a number of ways, one of which is to eliminate term limits on the office of President. All changes will first have to be approved by the democratically elected Venezuelan National Assembly, and then also approved in a popular referendum before they become law. Only Americans who search out the alternative media discover that Hugo Chavez was elected President by a comfortable margin in 1998, survived an opposition-sponsored recall in 2004, and most recently was re-elected in December 2006 with more than 60% of the vote. International observers certified all three elections as fair and square. George Bush, on the other hand, was selected President by a partisan Supreme Court after losing the popular vote in 2000, and won re-election only because enough black voters in Ohio were disenfranchised by a partisan Republican official to keep the Buckeye State in the Republican column in 2004. Few observers believe Bush could survive a recall election today, but of course this basic element of democratic rule is not permitted by the US Constitution. Nonetheless, the only storyline ninety-nine percent of Americans hear remains: Hugo Chavez is a dictator and George Bush is the democratically elected leader of the free world.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Poll: Venezuelan attitudes to socialism and capitalism

The pollsters did not provide any definition of what capitalism and socialism were. Probably the respondents associate socialism with Chavez' policies and capitalism with former regimes and neo-liberal capitalist policies. I doubt that the survey will get much publicity.

http://www.gallupworldpoll.com/content/?CI=28918>

October 05, 2007
Venezuelans Tend to View Socialism More Positively Than Capitalism

Large percentages, however, say they simply do not know

by Patricia Guadalupe
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez this week
announced Venezuelans will be limited on the amount of luxury goods
they can import, citing his countrymen's consumption of foreign
whiskey as an example of consumerism's ill effects on society. In
2006, according to the BBC, Venezuelans drank nearly four bottles of
Scotch whisky per person, and about 10% of British exports of the
spirit. Chavez says the high consumption is embarrassing, and will
limit the dollars available to importers.

Chavez's efforts at curbing consumption of high-end items are just
one example of what he calls "21st-century socialism," a populist
brand of governance based more on socialist principles than on
capitalist ones. Since his re-election last year, Chavez has also
worked toward nationalizing key industries, establishing worker-led
business firms, and changing Venezuela's constitution and education
system. A Gallup Poll conducted at the time of Chavez's re-election
reveals Venezuelans tend to perceive socialism more positively than
capitalism on key issues affecting day-to-day life, governance, and
economics.

On many issues affecting day-to-day life, Venezuelans are nearly
twice as likely to associate socialism with positive outcomes, as
they are to associate them with capitalism. When Gallup asked
respondents whether "more freedom to think the way one wants" better
describes socialism or capitalism, 43% say socialism, compared with
26% who say capitalism. Venezuelans share similar views about under
which system there is more peace and social calm (44% for socialism
vs. 23% for capitalism), and under which system there is less crime
(42% for socialism vs. 22% for capitalism).

A similar pattern emerges on issues related to governance. Forty-
three percent of Venezuelans say the country has more sovereignty
under socialism, while 24% say this is true of capitalism. The same
holds true on the issue of corruption, with 42% saying corruption
gets fought under socialism, while 21% say this happens with
capitalism. Forty-four percent perceive more justice for people under
socialism, compared with 21% who perceive this about capitalism.

Forty-nine percent of respondents say socialism offers education
opportunities for all, compared with 21% who say the same about
capitalism. Venezuelans also perceive that there is better quality of
education with socialism (45%) than with capitalism (25%).
Nonetheless, when Chavez initially talked about education reform
during his first term, several thousand parents and teachers
demonstrated against a decree to allow education officials to fire
teachers and administrators who disagree with any changes.

While Chavez is unlikely to face great opposition from his support
base -- generally the poor -- for his limit on the importation of
luxury items, other reform attempts have not fared as well. His
attempt, for example, to change the country's constitution to extend
the presidency from six to seven years and eliminate presidential
term limits has not been well-received as of late. The Venezuelan
Assembly is discussing that proposal, and this week a group of
legislators from Podemos, a splinter group of a pro-Chavez socialist
organization, rejected the constitutional changes, saying they want
socialism that is democratic, not authoritarian. Thirty-nine percent
of Venezuelans surveyed at the time of Chavez's re-election said that
under socialism "it is guaranteed that a president will be changed at
the time they have to," while 26% said the same about capitalism.

Venezuelans are more mixed in regard to which system is better from
an economic perspective. Forty percent say more wealth gets produced
under socialism, compared with 28% who say the same about capitalism.
Forty-six percent say wealth is better distributed under socialism
and 22% say under capitalism. Venezuelans are nearly evenly divided
about which system affords more people with opportunities to make
money; 35% say socialism and 34% say capitalism. Roughly 4 in 10
Venezuelans (41%) tell Gallup there is more inflation and a high cost
of living under capitalism, compared with 27% who say the same is
true about socialism.

Across the board, a high percentage of Venezuelans say they "don't
know" about a particular issue, between 17% and 21%, and generally
another 5% refuse to answer the question. This may be attributable to
the fact the terms socialism and capitalism were not defined for
respondents. Some analysts say the high numbers might also reflect a
general lack of discourse in the country about these issues, and more
a "cult of personality" revolving around Chavez. "Discussions on
ideology, such as one would have when one talks about socialism and
capitalism and which systems are better, is not something that has
been discussed much in Venezuela, and therefore most people really
don't think about it too much," says Pedro Bucelli, a financial
analyst specializing in emerging markets who is a former board member
of Petroleos de Venezuela, the country's national petroleum company,
and a pro-business member of the opposition civic group Sumate.
"Discussions and debate in Venezuela have focused on individuals,"
Bucelli adds. "There is a political explosion in the country,
revolving around an individual, not necessarily around an ideology."

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Venezuelan
adults, aged 15 and older, in December 2006. For results based on the
total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that
the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In
addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Analysis of developments in Venezuela and other parts of South America

It is certainly generous of the Monthly Review to make important articles such as this available for free on its website. The whole article is available on the website. Lebowitz concentrates on Venezuela but also touches on other countries in South America as well.


Venezuela:
A Good Example of the Bad Left of Latin America
by Michael A. Lebowitz


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notes From
the Editors


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michael A. Lebowitz is author of Beyond Capital: Marx's Political Economy of the Working Class (Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), Build It Now: Socialism for the Twenty-First Century (Monthly Review Press, 2006), and The Socialist Alternative: Real Human Development (Monthly Review Press, forthcoming in 2008). Portions of this essay were presented as “Going Beyond Survival: Making the Social Economy a Real Alternative” at the Fourth International Meeting of the Solidarity Economy, July 21–23, 2006, at the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Fair wages, a fair day’s work! Through their struggles within capitalism, it has often been possible for workers and citizens to secure themselves some share of the benefits of social labor. Capitalist globalization and the offensive of neoliberal state policies, however, have encroached upon all those gains from past struggles; and the answer to those who were surprised to find those victories ephemeral was the mantra of TINA—there is no alternative.

Yet, as the devastation of the capitalist offensive has become obvious, opposition has emerged especially in Latin America. We warned you this would happen, say the hucksters and self-promoters; instead of the good times ahead promised from the neoliberal medicine prescribed from the 1980s on, Latin America experienced (in the words of Jorge G. Castañeda) “the persistence of dismal poverty, inequality, high unemployment, a lack of competitiveness, and poor infrastructure” (“Latin America’s Left Turn,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006). The left (“rightly foretold” by the prophets) has returned.

This means that hope has returned. Working people around the world look to Latin America these days for the demonstration that there is an alternative, that a better world is possible. But, are they right to look to Latin America? Is a real alternative emerging or is it merely a negotiation of better terms in the implicit contract with capitalist globalization? Is Latin America breaking with capitalism or is it struggling for fairness?

The Good Left and the Bad Left

Of course, we know that all lefts are not the same. And, indeed, that is a constant theme among commentators of all varieties. While few would divide Latin America in accordance with dietary practices as did Alvaro Vargas Llosa (Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, and Evo Morales being designated as “carnivores”—Washington Post, August 6, 2006), for many there is simply the Good Left and the Bad Left. What they have in common, according to Castañeda, is that they stress “social improvements,” “egalitarian distribution of wealth,” “sovereignty,” and “democracy” (over the presumed opposite package of macroeconomic orthodoxy, wealth creation, international cooperation, and governmental effectiveness). What makes the Bad Left bad, though, is essentially described by one word—“populism.”

When they hear the term populism, Latin American intellectuals reach for their incense. Partly that is because the term conveys people, masses, the unwashed in motion. When Castañeda declares populism to be “nationalist, strident, and close-minded,” it is hard not to think of this as his description of the masses themselves. But, there is more to it (or, rather, there is another aspect of this). When he describes as among the characteristics of populists in power that they “nationalized large sectors of their countries’ economies, extending well beyond the so-called commanding heights” and captured “natural resource or monopoly rents, which allowed them to spend money on the descamisados, the ‘shirtless,’ without raising taxes on the middle class,” you know that what makes the Bad Left really bad is its attack on capital.

Small wonder, then, that the Good Left is said to include the governments of Chile, Uruguay, and Brazil (and maybe even Nestor Kirchner’s Argentina), while the Bad Left invariably revolves around Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Bolivia’s Evo Morales. Given that the distance from Chávez appears to be the true measure of all things, one might conclude that Ecuador’s Rafael Correa will also fall into the category of the Bad.

Yet, here is where this classification system breaks down. How do we distinguish between an attack on capitalism as such and an attack on the current policies and practices of capitalism? Between a struggle for a new economic system, on the one hand, and a struggle for fairness on the part of international creditors, in trade relations, and in the distribution of resource rents, on the other? Distinguishing between these may be harder than it appears at first sight.

After all, even a process of despotic inroads upon capital (of a long march which wrests, “by degrees, all capital from the bourgeoisie,” in the words of Marx and Engels) is certain to be described as mere reformism by those for whom anything less than storming the heights immediately—nationalizing everything with workers’ control now—is simply acquiescence to international capital. Abstract idealists for whom the correlation of forces (internal and external) and the concept of process mean less than the pamphlets they have underlined always sing the same tune of betrayal (changing only the names of those who have spurned their overtures). But, it does not mean that they are wrong in particular cases.

How can we identify an attack on capitalism as such? Is an alternative to capitalism being built in the new left governments of Latin America?

Identifying an Alternative to Capitalism

What constitutes a real alternative to capitalism? I suggest that it is a society in which the explicit goal is not the growth of capital or of the material means of production but, rather, human development itself—the growth of human capacities. We can see this perspective embodied in the Bolivarian Constitution of Venezuela—in Article 299’s emphasis upon “ensuring overall human development,” in the declaration of Article 20 that “everyone has the right to the free development of his or her own personality,” and in the focus of Article 102 upon “developing the creative potential of every human being and the full exercise of his or her personality in a democratic society.”

In these passages (which are by no means the whole of that constitution), there is the conception of a real alternative—an economy whose logic is not the logic of capital. “The social economy,” President Hugo Chávez said in September 2003, “bases its logic on the human being, on work, that is to say, on the worker and the worker’s family, that is to say, in the human being.” That social economy, he continued, does not focus on economic gain, on exchange values; rather, “the social economy generates mainly use-value.” Its purpose is “the construction of the new man, of the new woman, of the new society.”

These are beautiful ideas and beautiful words, but they are, of course, only ideas and words. The first set comes from a constitution and the second comes from the regular national educational seminar known as Aló Presidente. How can such ideas and words be made real? Let me suggest four preconditions for the realization of this alternative to capitalism.

(1) Any discussion of structural change must begin from an understanding of the existing structure—in short, from an understanding of capitalism. We need to grasp that the logic of capital, the logic in which profit rather than satisfaction of the needs of human beings is the goal, dominates both where it fosters the comparative advantage of repression and also where it accepts an increase in slave rations.

(2) It is essential to attack the logic of capital ideologically. In the absence of the development of a mass understanding of the nature of capital—that capital is the result of the social labor of the collective worker—the need to survive the ravages of neoliberal and repressive policies produces only the desire for a fairer society, the search for a better share for the exploited and excluded: in short, barbarism with a human face.

(3) A critical aspect in the battle to go beyond capitalism is the recognition that human capacity develops only through human activity, only through what Marx understood as “revolutionary practice,” the simultaneous changing of circumstances and self-change. Real human development does not drop from the sky in the form of money to support survival or the expenditures of popular governments upon education and health. In contrast to populism, which produces people who look to the state for all answers and to leaders who promise everything, the conception which truly challenges the logic of capital in the battle of ideas is one which explicitly recognizes the centrality of self-management in the workplace and self-government in the community as the means of unleashing human potential—i.e., the idea of socialism for the twenty-first century.

(4) But, the idea of this socialism cannot displace real capitalism. Nor can dwarfish islands of cooperation change the world by competing successfully against capitalist corporations. You need the power to foster the new productive relations while truncating the reproduction of capitalist productive relations. You need to take the power of the state away from capital, and you need to use that power when capital responds to encroachments—when capital goes on strike, you must be prepared to move in rather than give in. Winning the “battle of democracy” and using “political supremacy to wrest, by degrees, all capital from the bourgeoisie” remains as critical now as when Marx and Engels wrote the Communist Manifesto.

Consider these preconditions. Are they being met by the new Latin American governments on the left? On the contrary, for the most part, we can see the familiar characteristics of social democracy—which does not understand the nature of capital, does not attack the logic of capital ideologically, does not believe that there is a real alternative to capitalism, and, not surprisingly, gives in when capital threatens to go on strike.

“We can’t kill the goose that lays the golden eggs,” announced the social democratic premier of British Columbia in Canada (in the 1970s when I was party policy chairman). Here, crystallized, is the ultimate wisdom of social democracy—the manner in which social democracy enforces the logic of capital and ideologically disarms and demobilizes people.

Venezuela, however, is going in a different direction at this point. While the Bolivarian Revolution did not start out to build a socialist alternative (and its continuation along this path is contested every step of the way), it is both actively rejecting the logic of capital and also ideologically arming and mobilizing people to build that alternative.

The Initial Venezuelan Path

Although the Bolivarian Constitution of 1999 focused upon the development of human capacity, it also retained the support for capitalism of earlier constitutions. That constitution guarantees the right of property (Article 115), identifies a role for private initiative in generating growth and employment (Article 299), and calls upon the state to promote private initiative (Article 112). And, support for continued capitalist development was precisely the direction of the initial plan developed for 2001–07. While rejecting neoliberalism and stressing the importance of the state presence in strategic industries, the focus of that plan was to encourage investment by private capital—both domestic and foreign—by creating an “atmosphere of trust.”

To this was to be added the development of a “social economy”—conceived as an “alternative and complementary road” to the private sector and the public sector. But, it is significant how little a role was conceived for self-managing and cooperative activities. Essentially, this was a program to incorporate the informal sector into the social economy; it is necessary, the plan argued, “to transform the informal workers into small managers.” Accordingly, family, cooperative, and self-managed micro-enterprises were to be encouraged through training and micro-financing (from institutions such as the Women’s Development Bank) and by reducing regulations and tax burdens. The goal of the state was explicitly described as one of “creating an emergent managerial class.”

The social economy, thus, was to play the role it plays in Brazil and elsewhere—islands of cooperation nurtured by states, NGOs, Grameen-type banks, and church charities and serving as positive shock absorbers for the economic and political effects of capitalist globalization. Of course, if seriously pursued, this could make things easier for the unemployed and excluded, the half of the Venezuelan working class in the informal sector, by providing them with a better opportunity for survival. But, the social economy was not envisioned in the 2001–07 plan as an alternative to capitalism (except insofar as survival within the nooks and crannies of global capitalism constitutes an alternative).

A Third Way for Venezuela: it would turn its back on neoliberalism, would change the distribution of oil rents by acting against the state within the state that was the national oil company (PDVSA), and would move via an active state in the direction of the “endogenous development” supported by structuralist economists. The goal, in short, was a different capitalism. The Bolivarian Revolution at its outset clearly belonged in the Good Left.

But, it also contained a potential subversive element—its theme of human development. The Bolivarian Constitution is unequivocal in indicating that human beings develop their capacity only through their own activity. Not only does Article 62 declare that participation by people is “the necessary way of achieving the involvement to ensure their complete development, both individual and collective,” but that constitution specifically focuses upon democratic planning and participatory budgeting at all levels of society and (as in Article 70) upon “self-management, co-management, cooperatives in all forms” as examples of “forms of association guided by the values of mutual cooperation and solidarity.” With its emphasis upon a “democratic, participatory and protagonistic” society, the Bolivarian Constitution definitely contains the seeds of the social economy, the seeds of socialism for the twenty-first century.

And, those seeds didn’t drop from the sky. They came from the social movements that were allied with Hugo Chávez’s struggle to throw out the Fourth Republic (and that, through membership in the new Constituent Assembly, introduced those seeds directly into the constitution); and, they came from the self-described “subversive in Miraflores” himself—Chávez, the prisoner who wrote in 1993, “the sovereign people must transform itself into the object and the subject of power. This option is not negotiable for revolutionaries.”

Of course, contradictory elements such as those found in the Bolivarian Constitution are not unique, and potentially subversive seeds often produce nothing. We are all familiar with governments elected as agencies of working people which, once elected, send the people home to rest for the next election. Further, there is much sad experience with the manner in which those social movements then proceed to self-police themselves—with the result that the seeds wither. In Venezuela, however, class struggle nurtured the seeds of that social economy so that it increasingly was seen as the alternative to capitalist development.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Venezuela: Is Chavez in Control?

This is interesting but I am quite suspicious of it. There is nothing at all about foreign involvement in trying to destroy the Chavez government. The old elites are supposedly destroyed--elite stores apparently just depend upon corrupt govt. officials for clients! The corruption story could very well be right but certainly the old elites are still there and kicking. They organise plenty and try to sabotage Chavez at every opportunity.

http://www.opendemocracy.net/node/34312/print

By Ivan Briscoe
Created 2007-08-09 17:50

Lands have been confiscated, foreign companies driven out and utilities

renationalised, but even so there is a special place in Venezuela for
Louis Vuitton. The immaculate store in the Sambil shopping-mall now
ranks as the firm's most successful in the whole of Latin America,
shifting several hundred thousand-dollar carpetbags week in week out.
"We have a mix", explains the extremely reticent shop manager, flown in

days before from Paris. "We have older clients, and we have newer
ones."

Not far to the east the free flow of wealth has also engulfed Petare,
the giant settlement of breeze-block houses, sticking like a biblical
citadel to the hills of Caracas valley. Here there are new blue
water-cisterns on every house, concrete supports to halt mudflows,
Cuban
ophthalmologists, education and literacy programmes. There are
subsidised food stores, committees fighting for residents' property
rights, community sports facilities. But it is best not to leave home
after 7 pm: Petare is also home to a plague of drive-by shootings and
erratic teenage gunfire.

"Before it was static, now there's hope. Now it's all mobile", declares

Miren Eguiguren, a Basque emigrant who for thirty-seven years has
struggled to bring basic education and social services to the district
through the /Casa de Nazareno/ centre. "Everything is broken, and there

is total movement."

*Caracas**'s wonderland*

Venezuela, as many like to observe, tongue in cheek, is now a
"wonderland." The rhetoric emanating from President Hugo Chávez is of
revolution, socialism and, as he declared in a television _interview_ ,

a "war of all the people" against the pretensions of "imperialism". In
the country beyond the /Palacio de Miraflores/, fortunes are being made

at lightning pace, and the only blood-war is between the people, poor
against poor.

Condemnations of creeping dictatorship, meanwhile, rain down both from
abroad (foreign governments, international bodies) and at home (the new

student movement). Even two months before the free-to-air license for
Radio Caracas Televisión (_RCTV_ ) was rescinded in April 2007,
Condoleezza Rice had _accused_ Chávez of "destroying his own country,
economically, politically." The litany of power-concentration since the

December 2006 elections has indeed proved indigestible: the
congressional vote to hand eighteen-month "special powers" to the
president; the creation of a united ruling party (the _/Partido
S//o//cialista Unido de Venezuela/_ [4] ) that entails the effective
dissolution of others in broad sympathy with the "Bolivarian
revolution"; the creeping ideology of total militarisation; and the
venom directed towards any attempt at opposition. Accused by the
country's bishops of sponsoring a "Marxist-Leninist" takeover, Chávez
let rip in customary style: "either you're ignorant", he told the
priests, "or you're cheating, lying perverts."

Supporters of the president point to his ever increasing majority in
three presidential elections, and his enormous, undeniable popularity
in
deprived neighbourhoods. Both sides of the debate repeat the same old
axioms and historical references; there seems little room for nuance or

compromise. And to prove the point, his critics have unearthed a new
ideological bogeyman, supposedly cherished by certain /chavista/
ministers: the German-Mexican sociologist _Heinz Dieterich_ , whose
"21st-century socialism" entails the use of computer networks to decide

who should get what, providing the long-awaited
"mathematical-conceptual
solution of the problem of objective value."

The frenzied impasse over Chávez's democratic credentials or
digitalised
Marxism, however, utterly fails to capture the contradictions of the
Venezuelan street. Just as the president's socialism jostles uneasily
with the habits of an oil-rich state, the conviction that a new tyranny

is settling into place ignores abundant evidence that the government's
greatest battle, which it may be losing, is to keep control of its own
/proceso/. Venezuela may now be more or less democratic than during its

forty years of two-party oligarchy; the arguments (as a July 2007
_report_ by Coletta A Youngers for the _Washington Office on Latin
America_ underscores) cut both ways. But a truth that cannot be avoided

is that without effective steerage, a revolution - democratic, populist

or dictatorial - sinks little deeper than a television show. And it is
in the effort to make /chavismo/ stick, and the resistance this
produces, that the true identity of this regime will emerge.

*Two loopholes
*

It is crime, the leading concern of 85% of Venezuelans according to a
poll conducted in 2006, that most confounds the government's
expectations. Loath to punish the wayward poor, Chávez consistently
skirts the issue. If anything, his model for a solution can be found in

_/23 de Enero/_ (23 January), a district of mean tower-blocks and
hillside tenements in western Caracas, where tight community
organisation - including armed groups, such as the radical Tupamaros -
have made the streets relatively safe to walk.

Juan Contreras has lived all his life in the district. A veteran of the

leftwing _/Coordinadora Simón Bolívar/_, from which the Tupamaro
group
emerged, he now runs a community newspaper and radio station, occupying

a building that was once the local headquarters of the metropolitan
police. "I was the culprit for anything and everything that happened
here", he recalls. "The police came and took you to the station. Then
it
was whack, whack, whack, and when they'd whacked you twenty times,
they'd switch the television on."

On the day of an unannounced visit, dozens of young children are
listening to a classical musical recital in the courtyard where local
suspects were once dragged. Leashed monkeys play in a tree. Seventy
brand-new Chinese computers, all with broadband connections, sit idle
in
an adjoining hall; the electricity doesn't work, and the ministry is
not
picking up the phone. But Contreras is unfazed: "Never before in forty
years would we even have got computers!", he proclaims.

The /barrio/, however, is an exception. Around fifty people are killed
in Caracas every weekend, clogging public hospitals with the corpses of

young men: victims of revenge killings, gang wars, narcotic highs and
pure bad luck. Total murder statistics for the country suggest at least

16,000 are being killed each year; so far in 2007, this rate has risen
by 15%. Guns, a community teacher says in Petare, "are easier to buy
than a bag of flour", and the murder of choice is carried out now by an

adolescent pillion-passenger firing a pistol from a speeding motorbike.

"A few weeks ago, I was telling a 15-year-old kid from around here that

he had a nice face, so why was he involved in all this business",
recalls _Miren Eguiguren_. "But it was too late. He was shot dead a few

days ago. It was what he deserved. He'd killed ten people himself."

Comprehensive reform of the country's 135 different police forces is
pending, but few in the shanty-town /cerros/ around Caracas are ever
likely to trust officers long associated with "social cleansing",
corruption, and kidnapping. The sheer complexity of recasting the
country's security forces and judiciary instead generates systematic
inertia, at most punctuated by an occasional politically-motivated
purge, or a quick tamper with the courts - which often serves to
undermine judicial competence. Chávez is accused by his critics of
sympathising with criminal outlaws, yet his indulgence does not stretch

too far: convicted offenders still end up beached in Latin America's
most hellish jail system, short of space and food, where around 250
inmates have been killed so far this year.

For a revolution bent on encouraging solidarity and social ownership,
the current crime wave serves as a kind of manic, bipolar disorder.
Senior police officers, evidently ignorant of Bolivarian etiquette,
freely hand out their advice on how one should behave when driving
one's
car: "distrust accidents, distractions, and injured people in the
road",
one inspector recently told /El Universal /newspaper.

The siege of the egalitarian, cooperative ethic vaunted by Chávez and
his ministers is even more marked in the nation's economy. Vast sums of

_oil money_ have certainly reached the poorest areas, while also
spawning bridges across the Orinoco river, a new "socialist city", a
flyover to the airport and nine glimmering football stadia, created for

the _Copa America_ tournament of June-July 2007. Yet the outlay on such

investments - public spending has increased by 60% as a proportion of
GDP since 2000 - has brought, inevitably, an inflationary tide, which
the government is attempting to rein in through price controls, a fixed

currency-rate, debt emissions and nationalisations. "Rest assured, we
will not introduce any economic policy that affects the interests of
the
poor", finance minister _Rodrigo Cabezas_ has asserted.

His pledge, made on the heels of the International Monetary Fund's call

for an interest rate rise to 40%, must nevertheless be treated with
caution. For an economy drip-fed by the dollar revenues of oil exports,

protecting the poor has in practice incurred a great bloating of
imports, particularly food from Colombia and Brazil. Venezuela's own
farm sector, essential to Chávez's ideal of agrarian resettlement, is
hobbling along, stymied by its high prices and menaced by state
takeover. Instead of putting into place a system of progressive
taxation, the desperate race to keep purchasing power up has seen taxes

slashed.

Meanwhile, there is serious money to be made. No minister seems willing

to explain the treatment of billions of dollars in foreign bonds -
including the $4.2 billion of Argentine paper-debt bought over the last

two years - which are resold on the quiet, at the official
exchange-rate, to handpicked local banks. Their resale to Venezuelans
needing dollars, seemingly at the black market exchange-rate, nets 100%

profits.

The web of economic controls, social programmes and bilateral deals
with
foreign countries affords further opportunities for personal enrichment

at almost every level of officialdom. Cases cited by the press and
analysts are numerous and staggering: abuse of funds for poor people's
housing; a $100 million swindle in a deal to build Iranian factories;
the mismanagement of Fonden, the trust-fund from oil revenues destined
for social development, now totalling over $15 billion.

Even stripped of most of its powers, the national assembly - /chavista/

from head to toe - has made a modicum of effort to track government
spending. Its audit commission, however, is a regular target for
threats, while one of its members has endured a brief "express
kidnapping". "When it comes to extra money for the executive, we
approve
it overnight", explained the commission's chairman, Ángel Landeta.
"But
when it concerns controlling revenues, things change."

The feast of corrupt earnings, comparable in the opinion of one
academic
with excellent government contacts to the Sandinistas' annexation of
various Nicaraguan state companies in 1990 (the so-called /piñata/),
is
not a novelty in Venezuela; it is doubtful that it is worse than under
the infamous presidency of _Jaime Lusinchi_ of 1984-89. But this very
persistence of graft sits uncomfortably with a government whose
electoral base lies in the clamour for equality and respect, and which
obliges its military - whose officers run hundreds of state funds and
bodies - to chant everyday the new war-cry: /Patria, socialismo o
muerte/ (fatherland, socialism or death).

Teodoro Petkoff, editor of _/Tal Cual/_ newspaper and one of Chávez's
most incisive critics, baptises it "the government of Hummers and
Audis." As the new /chavista/ rich join old Venezuelan money in
shopping-trips to Louis Vuitton, the shame around exhibiting one's
wealth has started to fade. With a chortle, the 75-year-old _former
guerrilla_ leader pulls out the July 2007 edition of /Etiqueta/
magazine, bearing on its cover a young woman with a thick gold
bracelet.
Inside, Petkoff points to a photo-story on a wedding in Caracas's most
exclusive country-club, featuring the release of white doves, two
fireworks displays and a VIP suite, where illustrious guests such as
Chávez's interior minister and his former vice-president could
expatiate
in private.

*Sabotage and parallel states*

A former strategic assistant to the president, who spent three years
working in the _Miraflores Palace_ until 2006, declares that Chávez is

perfectly aware of his underlings' excesses. "Dozens of people", he
says, are employed by the president to monitor his ministries. But the
political dynamics of high office which he reveals suggest that one
man,
messianic though he might appear to his followers, is unable to force
through his desires. "My experience is that at most times, what Chávez

promises is not done."

Elected in 1998 after a bandwagon campaign, without a formal political
party structure supporting him, Chávez has long had to rely on the
state
apparatus he inherited, and the leaders of the pre-existing political
parties that have grouped behind him. Within the president's offices,
these factions spar with each other for spoils while mouthing an
impeccable faith in the revolution. The result, according to the former

adviser, is systematic "sabotage.... Those who really want to change
the
country are kicked out of power."

Increasingly isolated from his pack of hungry acolytes, Chávez readily

admits his own solitude. Speaking with the Associated Press in one
recent interview, he even appeared to have absorbed some of his
government's own dissonance: "my life doesn't belong to me."

The president's favoured alternative strategy, ritually deplored by his

opponents, has been to bypass the state apparatus entirely. A parallel
universe of government has emerged, structured first around the social
missions, now numbering fifteen, and reaching directly into the honey
pot of the state oil company /Petróleos de Venezuela SA/ _(PdVSA)_,
where presidential control is absolute and no media prying is
tolerated.
It would appear that the next step is the creation of 25,000 community
councils, funded straight from a presidential commission to the tune of

an estimated $3 billion a year, and effectively short-circuiting
municipal and regional authorities. Congress has been emasculated.
Pro-Chávez political parties are being fused into one. The national
reserve, Venezuela's 2-million-strong citizens' militia, is edging out
the _professional military_ from public duties; in July 2007, the
reserve's former chief, Gustavo Rangel Briceño, become the _defence
minister_.

As a result, and for the first time in over five years, both sides of
Venezuela's giant political chasm agree on one fundamental issue: the
state is not working as it should.

*Power and schisms*

There, however, the consensus ends. The principal ideologues of the
revolution trust that this parallel machinery - the "postmodern" state
in the words of _Juan Carlos Monedero_, a Spanish academic and
prominent
ideological aide to Chávez - will somehow devour the carcass of the
old
graft-tainted bureaucracy. In some cases, such as the extraordinarily
successful, Cuban-led /Barrio Adentro /health programme, the modest
octagonal clinics built in poor communities will act as the springboard

for reform that is due to end in a total reconstruction of the public
health service. In other cases, such as the new-look oil industry or
the
Bolivarian universities, critics round on official blacklists and a
debasement of professional standards. Meanwhile, anyone who has the
money rushes to the private sector: half of all private
health-insurance
policies are now contracted by state officials.

The multiple battles over state power and the place of revolution feed
straight into the future of Venezuela's democracy. Standing high in the

ranks of geopolitical superstardom, Chávez is usually portrayed by
foreign media - such as in his bid for indefinite re-election - as the
owner of a gargantuan ego. But on the ground, what matters more is his
avowed determination to make sure his political project outlives his
career: "Human beings are transitory", he declared in June. "The party
must be eternal, the most powerful revolutionary motor."

As the means to institutionalise his creed, Chávez has opted for an
ever
greater concentration of power, radiating outwards through the
community
councils and the PSUV party. The problem is that the returns on this
power are endlessly diminishing: in certain regions the new
5-million-strong party, apparently joined by every opportunist in the
land, has more members than people who voted for Chávez in the last
election. "The president has a tendency to centralise, with the idea
that he can supervise matters more directly", argues _Margarita López
Maya_, a highly respected _social historian_ from Caracas's Central
University. "But more centralisation ends in less capacity to control.
It's madness. You need checks and balances."

The genetic code of /chavismo/, however, is deeply charismatic. "If
there's a problem with the taxis, the taxi-drivers want to speak with
Chávez. If there's a protest of street sellers they want to speak with

Chávez", explains Contreras in the /23 de Enero /neighbourhood.

Inserting a free-thinking layer of authority between the president and
his /pueblo/ thus risks displeasing everybody. Should Chávez's grip on

power actually diminish as a result, there is absolutely no guarantee,
given the vested interests of party and state officials, that it will
be
replaced by a flow of participation from the communities below; should
it increase, the accusations of violations of democracy will mount, the

diversion of resources by Venezuela's new elite will continue, and the
Bolivarian movement will slowly but surely run into the ground.

Two other factors are set to play pivotal roles in the government's
evolution. Fattened on a diet of electoral victories, the components
parts of /chavismo/ have grown restive. Schisms and splits have always
characterised the movement, but the last few months have been thick
with
internal friction, at the heart of which is the very same military from

which the coup-leader of 1992 emerged. No one knows precisely the level

of opposition to Chávez within the armed forces, yet it is evident -
and
he admits it - that certain officers dislike him and his "war of the
all
the people" intensely. One retired general and stalwart supporter,
Alberto Müller Rojas, recently described the government as being in a
"pre-anarchic" state, with the president sitting atop "a nest of
scorpions". The outgoing defence minister Raúl Baduel, meanwhile,
mounted a strident attack on irresponsible wealth distribution during
his farewell speech in late July. Small wonder that the president tours

the world buying new weapons for his generals.

If the threat of a military coup is an immediate concern - and it was
the army which unseated Chávez in the brief 2002 putsch - then a more
slow-burning source of tension can be found in the questionable allure
of "21st century socialism". A visit to any of Caracas' hill
settlements
gives the lie to any notion that the poor long for collective
ownership:
small businesses operate from shadowy ground floors, while residents of

/23 de Enero/ plaster their slum houses with stucco and inlay them with

balustrades. Even Contreras, a life-long Marxist, is willing to let the

locals crave home improvements and upward mobility.

"Some call it socialism, some calls it communism or participative
democracy, but I guarantee that work, education, housing and leisure
are
the means to create the greatest sum of happiness for our people. You
choose the name you want."

Opinion-poll work in these communities has thrown up fascinating
insights. Far from looking to a collectivist future, the popular mood
appears satisfied with the damage inflicted on the status of
Venezuela's
old elites. In the words of Oscar Schemel, head of the Hinterlaces
agency - which has conducted over 200 focus groups across the country -

the era of "social revenge" by the poor has now ended; it is so far
uncertain what will replace it. "The new citizen is not a socialist,
but
a liberal. There was a struggle of classes, but it was not
antagonistic.
The poor did not want to annihilate the upper classes, but demanded a
new class relation: to be able to have what they have, to enjoy their
opportunities."

Hugo Chávez, however, is the child of antagonism. Throughout 2006, his

heckling of George Bush and veiled threats to established property
rights served to identify and demonise the old, Miami-bound class
enemy.
Schemel's research, which is unique in Venezuela, suggests this
approach
might be now be foundering on its own success: the mass anxiety, the
rush to arm the poor and the hysteria over a US invasion stirred by
Chávez are slowly losing their relevance to daily life to the extent
that /chavismo/ beds down in power.

"There's an incredible plan of control, manipulation and propaganda",
argues Schemel, insisting that crime and corruption form an integral
part of these control mechanisms. "But eventually this will contradict
the democratic culture of the country and the new aspirations. Chávez
has said that to be poor is good, and to be rich is bad. Over 80% of
Venezuelans reject this statement."

Reputedly stronger than ever, reportedly on the verge of a totalitarian

takeover, Chávez is in fact, for the first time since 2001, starting
to
face the contradictions of a movement born from a high tide of public
despair. Sticking fanatically to the evil of the empire and the war of
the people has served him well; the old opposition from Venezuela's
elite has been utterly destroyed. Somewhere within Chávez's movement,
however, there is bound to emerge over the next five to ten years a
challenge, be it through established party or state interests, a
military coup, or popular discontent from below. It may not look very
democratic. It may indeed be violent. But at some stage the revolution
must stop its tailspin.

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