UN envoy to Yemen says there is growing momentum for a peace deal in Yemen war

(November 23, 2019)Martin Griffiths the UN envoy to Yemen claims that the he is seeing a growing momentum to reach a deal to end the long war in Yemen that has now lasted five years. He says that something is changing in Yemen.

Reduction in the tempo of the war

Griffiths cited improvements to a ceasefire but also the major decline in airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis calling this a "reduction in the tempo of the war".

Reduction in airstrikes

Over the past two weeks there has been an 80 percent reduction in airstrikes. However, this is only for the last two weeks and could represent just a temporary slacking off or it could represent a shift in priorities for the coalition. However, the Houthis too have continued a halt to missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia as they have promised. This may lead both sides to work on a permanent ceasefire.

Behind the scenes peace talks being held

A recent article notes: "The Associated Press reported last week that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are holding indirect, behind-the-scenes talks to end the war mediated by Oman in the Gulf nation, quoting officials from both sides."

Separatists and Saudi-supported Yemen government agree to power sharing

For a while it looked as if the coalition led by Saudi Arabia against the Houthis could break up as Southern Separatists took over Aden and some surrounding areas and rejected any establishment of the Hadi government that the Saudis support. However, Saudi Arabia was able to negotiate a power-sharing agreement on November 5th that prevented a break-up of the state that the Saudis are attempting to restore. Griffiths said that the agreement could serve as a catalyst to reach a political settlement for the war.

Despite some setbacks there has been progress on a ceasefire in Hodeida port

The Houthis have agreed with the government on a new way to deposit taxes and customs fees for commercial oil and gas shipments through the port that averted a crisis and allowed fuel ships to use the Hodeida harbor. The Houthis are supported by Iran and control much of the north of Yemen including the capital Sanaa. Hodeida is a key port for supplies to come into the country including much needed humanitarian aid.

Griffiths also said that the two parties ha strengthened their adherence to the cease-fire in the area through establishing a cease fire enhancement and de-escalation mechanism. This had reduced the number of security incidents by 40 percent in the area. In the city itself the creation of five joint observation post led to an 80 percent reduction in security incidents in the city itself.

Previously published in the Digital Journal

No cease-fire in Yemen for Ramadan

The Yemen peace talks in Geneva have broken down with foreign minister Riad Yassin of the government in exile telling Al Jazeera his delegation will leave negotiations and return to Saudi Arabia on Saturday.

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Yassin blamed the Houthi rebel representatives for the collapse claiming that they would not meet with their delegation. That could be but the talks were to start with separate meetings of the UN with each group. The Houthis want to talk to Saudi Arabia since they consider the Saudis plus the Gulf Cooperation Council the real power behind the government in exile headed by President Mansour Hadi.

The basic problem from the start is that the Hadi delegation just wants to discuss implementing UN resolutions, and particularly one that demands the Houthis withdraw from the territories they have taken and lay down their arms. Yassin's remarks confirm this stance in that he complains that the Houthis have not complied with UN demands: "Until this time we have not achieved anything. Unfortunately, still the Houthis have not complied with anything." If the Houthis did withdraw and lay down their arms, then the Hadi government says there could be a permanent ceasefire and not a temporary truce as Ban Ki-moon sought during Ramadan. The Houthis would only agree to such a move only if there were an agreement on a government and political solution acceptable to them.The Hadi group says that a temporary truce would be used by Houthis to regroup and perhaps even capture more territory. Given this Hadi position it would seem pointless for the Houthis to meet with the Hadi delegation. What the Houthis wanted was to have agreement on a humanitarian cease fire as the UN and many western countries probably including the US want. The bombing has created a humanitarian disaster and many western allies of the Saudis would like to see a humanitarian pause in the battle at the very least. Even Yassin suggested that though the talks did not result in a ceasefire, discussions would be ongoing and the breakup did not mean the talks were a failure. During a temporary cease fire further talks could take place while Yemenis were spared even more havoc.

Ismail Ahmed, UN special envoy to Yemen said that a ceasefire should come before any new negotiations start. This seems quite sensible. He said he would redouble his efforts to achieve a ceasefire and hoped that an agreement could be reached soon. A UN spokesperson said that although no date had been set for a second round of talks, discussions could still be ongoing without any joint meetings as in Geneva. John Kirby a spokesperson for the US state department said that the talks were "a useful start to what will probably be a lengthy process." These remarks suggest that the talks were actually premature given the positions of the parties in the conflict. The same results could have been achieved by separate negotiations between the two parties. No doubt the UN hoped for a breakthrough before Ramadan.

Even as the talks took place, the Saudis continued bombing and clashes with the rebels also continued. The UN has called for $1.6 billion in aid to help alleviate the humanitarian disaster in Yemen. If there is no ceasefire it will be virtually impossible to deliver aid to many rebel-held areas.

At a news conference in Geneva, UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, Stephen O'Brien, warned of a "looming humanitarian catastrophe" in Yemen. It appears the catastrophe is already there. There is a sharp rise in hunger and disease, including an outbreak of dengue fever in the port city of Aden where there is a shortage of potable water. O'Brien said that millions of Yemenis "no longer have access to clean water, proper sanitation, or basic health care." Since March, the bombing and clashes have killed more than 2,500 people and displaced almost a million with many attempting to flee the country and even more internally displaced. The appended video is from Press TV an Iranian TV outlet.

Yemen peace talks to be held in Geneva on May 28

The UN has set May 28 to begin Yemen peace talks in Geneva but only one party to the conflict may attend. The Hadi government based in Saudi Arabia demands that the rebel Houthis give up some of the territory they have taken as a condition of taking part.

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Riad Yassine, the foreign minister, at first insisted the Houthis would need to implement all of UN Security Council Resolution 2216 in order for the Hadi government to agree to talks. Resolution 2216 was passed back on April 15th:Adopting resolution 2216 (2015) by 14 affirmative votes to none against, with one abstention (Russian Federation), the Council also demanded that the Houthis, withdraw from all areas seized during the latest conflict, relinquish arms seized from military and security institutions, cease all actions falling exclusively within the authority of the legitimate Government of Yemen and fully implement previous Council resolutions.

In other words, after driving the Hadi government into exile and setting up their own government as well as occupying much of the western part of Yemen, the Houthis are to give up the territory they have occupied and cede power to the government in exile operating from the Saudi capital, Ryadh.

Sometimes, it seems as if the UN operates in a different reality as it ignores what is happening on the ground. Instead it publishes moralistic rhetoric and issues demands or resolutions that are not kept. However, in this case the UN is simply pimping for the big powers that count in the area — the Gulf Cooperation Council including Saudi Arabia plus the U.S. Hadi is their man and even though he has been driven out of Yemen, even from his refuge in the south in Aden, he is still regarded as the rightful president. He has little real power on the ground in Yemen but that matters little if the legitimate use of force in Yemen is the coalition bombing Yemen to bits and any groups fighting the Houthis, who are claimed to be loyal to the Hadi government. Some in the south fighting the Houthis are probably loyal to the southern separatist movement and many fighting the Houthis in the east are loyal to Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula and at war with the Hadi government.

Powerful governments often believe that their power ensures that they can create the situation they want. In this case Gulf Arab countries including Saudi Arabia believe that the return of the Hadi government can be attained using their superior military power. As a result, they think it reasonable that negotiation means the surrender of their opponents instead of the each side recognizing the interests of the other side.

However, even Yassine appears to realize his original precondition did not have the slightest chance of being accepted. He later suggested that at least the Houthis should give back to the Hadi government a major city such as Aden or Taez. In the past, the Saudis have ruled out peace talks without a full disarmament and surrender. Yassine said a withdrawal from some captured territory by the Houthis would be a sign of goodwill. The April UN resolution placed an arms embargo on the rebels and also imposed sanctions on the son of Saleh the former president. It reiterated sanctions imposed last November on the ex-president and also two Houthi leaders. Given these moves it is not clear who would be able to negotiate on behalf of the Houthis or Saleh, who with his son controls much of the Yemeni armed forces. Saleh is allied with the Houthis.

Yemen's ambassador to the UN Khaled Alyemany said the talks in Geneva would be designed "to convince the Houthis to give up what they are doing and be part of the solution." These do not sound like "peace talks" but surrender talks. Given the situation on the ground there does not seem to be any motivation for the Houthis to surrender. Certainly many Yemenis hate the Houthis and want the conflict to stop but continued bombing by the Saudis directly supported by Hadi and other politicians from their safe haven in the Saudi capital will hardly generate support for the return of the previous government. For talks to have any chance of success they must begin with neither side placing preconditions on participation. Both sides have set preconditions for participation.

The Houthis have suggested as a condition for their attending that the two sides agree to the Peace and Partnership agreement the Hadi government signed when the Houthis took over the capital last September. The Houthis said: "The only way to solve the political problem is dialogue in a neutral country over what has been agreed upon in advance in the peace and partnership agreement," Maybe no one will show up for the peace talks.

The agreement did not result in a government the Houthis would approve and Hadi resigned. He was virtually under house arrest but escaped to Aden, claimed he was still president, and tried to set up a rival administration to the Houthis who took power when the negotiations failed. Hadi was driven out of Aden and took refuge in Ryadh where he enlisted Arab countries to try to put him back in power.