UN envoy to Yemen trying to broker a peace deal with Houthi rebels

Aden - Ismail Ahmed, the UN envoy to Yemen, will travel to Kuwait on June 27 and then travel to Ryadh Saudi Arabia for a week's stay. Finally, he will move on to Sanaa, Yemen for another week to try and reach a preliminary peace deal to end the conflict.

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For three months, the Saudis have led an extensive bombing campaign and blockade designed to restore president-in-exile Mansour Hadi to power. Although at one time Hadi resigned he later rescinded his resignation when he fled to Aden. He tried to set up a government there but was driven out and fled to Ryadh, Saudi Arabia. He has the support of the Saudis, and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC),as well as the U.S. Over the three months of bombing and land campaign by loyalists, more than 2,8000 people have been killed and huge numbers displaced. The campaign has created a humanitarian disaster. More than 80 percent of Yemenis or more than 21 million people are estimated by the UN to need humanitarian assistance. The Saudi blockade makes it difficult for aid agencies to deliver aid, especially to Houthi controlled areas. The chaos has helped Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula(AQAP) to extend its territory and consolidate its power often in alliance with local Sunni tribes. Added to the chaos the Islamic State has launched several attacks.

Although talks sponsored by the UN in Geneva broke up with no agreement a week ago, there was a general desire for a cease fire, hence Ahmed's travels to where he can work out issues with representatives of the two sides. UN spokesperson, Ahmad Fawzi, said of Ahmed:“He intends to spend more time in the two capitals [Riyadh and Sana’a] to discuss the draft principles paper which was developed here in Geneva — as he said, ‘until we reach a preliminary agreement."

There are already talks in Oman between the Houthis and opponents from the Southern Movement who are defending Aden and other parts of the south. Some units allied with the Houthis did withdraw from parts of Aden and journeyed north to provide reinforcements in the capital and other areas. This perhaps might have been part of an agreement. However, a storage tank in Aden was hit and set on fire by Houthi artillery fire, indicating that the battle is still ongoing in the port. The Saudis bombed numerous sites across Yemen on Friday. At least 10 people were killed in an air raid in Jawf a northern province bordering Saudi Arabia. The capital Sanaa was also bombed. Hadi's foreign minister said that his government had no interest in organizing a new meeting in Geneva. He simply wants to implement the UN resolution that demands the Houthis withdraw from all the areas that they have occupied and lay down their arms. Many other parties who support Hadi may hope for at least a ceasefire and then further negotiations.

Houthi rebels in talks with opponents in Oman

Ismail Ahmed, the UN special envoy for Yemen has warned that Yemen is on the verge of famine with 31 million now in need of assistance versus 7 million just two years ago.

The continued struggle between forces of the Houthi rebels, together with forces loyal to former president Saleh, and groups loyal to the government in exile of President Mansour Hadi has exacerbated the situation. Hadi and his government have all fled to Saudi Arabia. There are also places in Yemen where Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula(AQAP), allied with local Sunni groups, is also fighting the Shia Houthis. Ahmed blamed all the parties in the conflict for the drastic humanitarian situation for failing to agree to a ceasefire. On Wednesday, ground fighting together with Saudi-led airstrikes killed almost 100 people.

The Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, in September last year after UN-sponsored talks between the Hadi government and opposition members failed to create a government approved by the Houthis. Hadi resigned as president. He was under virtual house arrest in Sanaa but was able to flee to Aden, where his attempt to set up a government there failed and he was driven out. In March, a Saudi-led coalition began a bombing campaign and blockade to restore the Hadi government to power. So far it has only resulted in more carnage, with the Houthis losing little ground. Conditions in the south have led to a severe outbreak of dengue fever, adding one more misery to the conditions faced by Yemenis. The World Health Organization says that there have been more than 3,000 suspected cases of the disease since March 20, but some non-governmental organizations put the number at twice that.

A rare piece of good news was that a ship from Oman carrying 1,000 tons of food and three large generators had been allowed to dock in Hodeida a port held by the Houthi rebels. There have been problems delivering aid. When an Iranian aid plane attempted to land in Sanaa some time ago, the Saudis bombed the runway, making it impossible for aid planes from any source to land.

Ahmed showed some optimism about the future, even after recent failed peace talks in Geneva. He said that "both sides showed signs of constructive engagement and there is an emerging common ground upon which we can build to achieve an eventual cease-fire coupled with withdrawal of combatants." There are talksongoing between Houthi rebels and the southern separatist movement, one of the main opponents of the rebels in the south and the port of Aden. The southern separatists for now claim loyalty to the Hadi government according to news reports. However, they want a separate southern state in Yemen, or at the very least more autonomy. They were opponents of Hadi and particularly of his plan to divide Yemen into six regions. They believe there should be two main regions. On this issue they agree with the Houthis who also rejected Hadi's plan. The separatists may very well seek a cease fire and ultimately a political deal with the Houthis but this might not help Hadi's cause at all.

Oman has played a constructive mediator role throughout this conflict. It is the only member of the Gulf Cooperation Council not to join the Saudi-led military campaign. This has left Oman in a unique position of being able to mediate between the two sides. It has already had talks with the Americans that may have helped free an American held by the Houthis. It also was able to arrange for passage of a UN plane carrying the Houthi delegation to Geneva. The plane had been stuck in Djibouti for almost 24 hours. Oman shares a border with Yemen. No doubt it is anxious not to have conflict on its border.

Another diplomatic initiative is taking place through Moscow as a delegation from the party of ex-president Saleh ,an ally of the Houthis, has gone to Moscow where they will meet with Russian officials. The Russians may be able to influence Iran, and through Iran the Houthis, to agree to a ceasefire. The UN is in a difficult position since it has passed a resolution that the Houthis withdraw from all their positions and lay down their arms. They have also banned arms shipments to the Houthis and imposed sanctions on two important Houthi leaders as well as on ex-president Saleh and his son. They are hardly able to pose as neutral negotiators. At the recent peace talks the Hadi government insisted that the talks were only about how to implement the UN resolutions which are in effect a surrender demand. It is not surprising the talks failed. Yet, many of the major powers involved want at least a ceasefire and may even want a political solution. Iran supports the Houthis. However, even they and the Houthis themselves do not think that the Houthis can rule alone. The aim had always been to have the Houthis not as the government but as having the power to agree to whatever government opponents, and their allies should propose. This could still happen eventually. In the meanwhile a cease fire is also quite possible. The southern separatists could very well see eye to eye about what a future government should look like.

An Iranian official told Al-Monitor: “Oman right now is leading a new initiative for a solution in Yemen,They are trying to come out with a solution that can make all sides content. It’s difficult, but any other options might lead to worse scenarios. The Saudis are trapped in the mud in Yemen. They have been bombing for three months without any serious change on the ground, and they’ll strike for another nine months without any results, while today Ansar Allah is on the borders with a minimum strength. What if it decided to go to the next step?”

Ansar Allah is the name of the Houthi rebel movement. If the Saudis are willing to accept a more independent Yemen that is less under control of the Saudis a peace deal might be possible. Another scenario could be two separate states as was the case before the north and south united. Hadi may ultimately be sacrificed by the very powers that support him. He does not seem to have much support in Yemen. The Houthis understood this when during the Geneva peace talks they said they had no interest in talking to Hadi or his delegation, only to Saudi Arabia.

No cease-fire in Yemen for Ramadan

The Yemen peace talks in Geneva have broken down with foreign minister Riad Yassin of the government in exile telling Al Jazeera his delegation will leave negotiations and return to Saudi Arabia on Saturday.

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Yassin blamed the Houthi rebel representatives for the collapse claiming that they would not meet with their delegation. That could be but the talks were to start with separate meetings of the UN with each group. The Houthis want to talk to Saudi Arabia since they consider the Saudis plus the Gulf Cooperation Council the real power behind the government in exile headed by President Mansour Hadi.

The basic problem from the start is that the Hadi delegation just wants to discuss implementing UN resolutions, and particularly one that demands the Houthis withdraw from the territories they have taken and lay down their arms. Yassin's remarks confirm this stance in that he complains that the Houthis have not complied with UN demands: "Until this time we have not achieved anything. Unfortunately, still the Houthis have not complied with anything." If the Houthis did withdraw and lay down their arms, then the Hadi government says there could be a permanent ceasefire and not a temporary truce as Ban Ki-moon sought during Ramadan. The Houthis would only agree to such a move only if there were an agreement on a government and political solution acceptable to them.The Hadi group says that a temporary truce would be used by Houthis to regroup and perhaps even capture more territory. Given this Hadi position it would seem pointless for the Houthis to meet with the Hadi delegation. What the Houthis wanted was to have agreement on a humanitarian cease fire as the UN and many western countries probably including the US want. The bombing has created a humanitarian disaster and many western allies of the Saudis would like to see a humanitarian pause in the battle at the very least. Even Yassin suggested that though the talks did not result in a ceasefire, discussions would be ongoing and the breakup did not mean the talks were a failure. During a temporary cease fire further talks could take place while Yemenis were spared even more havoc.

Ismail Ahmed, UN special envoy to Yemen said that a ceasefire should come before any new negotiations start. This seems quite sensible. He said he would redouble his efforts to achieve a ceasefire and hoped that an agreement could be reached soon. A UN spokesperson said that although no date had been set for a second round of talks, discussions could still be ongoing without any joint meetings as in Geneva. John Kirby a spokesperson for the US state department said that the talks were "a useful start to what will probably be a lengthy process." These remarks suggest that the talks were actually premature given the positions of the parties in the conflict. The same results could have been achieved by separate negotiations between the two parties. No doubt the UN hoped for a breakthrough before Ramadan.

Even as the talks took place, the Saudis continued bombing and clashes with the rebels also continued. The UN has called for $1.6 billion in aid to help alleviate the humanitarian disaster in Yemen. If there is no ceasefire it will be virtually impossible to deliver aid to many rebel-held areas.

At a news conference in Geneva, UN Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, Stephen O'Brien, warned of a "looming humanitarian catastrophe" in Yemen. It appears the catastrophe is already there. There is a sharp rise in hunger and disease, including an outbreak of dengue fever in the port city of Aden where there is a shortage of potable water. O'Brien said that millions of Yemenis "no longer have access to clean water, proper sanitation, or basic health care." Since March, the bombing and clashes have killed more than 2,500 people and displaced almost a million with many attempting to flee the country and even more internally displaced. The appended video is from Press TV an Iranian TV outlet.