Former Yemeni president in talks with US, UK, and UAE diplomats

Representatives of Al Abdullah Saleh, the former president of Yemen are talking with diplomats from the United States, Britain, and the United Arab Emirates in negotiations that may help end the war in Yemen, according to a member of Saleh's party.

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Saleh himself along with his son are sanctioned by the UN so he will not personally be at the talks. Saleh and his son are still powerful in Yemen with many of the Yemeni armed forces loyal to Saleh. Saleh has allied his group with the Houthi rebels. Without his support the Houthis would likely not have advanced nearly as far as they have especially in the south of the country. Perhaps, Saleh is contemplating changing his allegiance again in order to have more power within any new government. While he was president, Saleh often fought with the Houthis whose stronghold is in the north of Yemen. The Houthis are Shia while the majority of Yemenis are Sunni Muslims.

The exiled president Mansour Hadi, was vice-president under Saleh and took power in a deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) with the support of the US. Saleh and his cronies were shielded from prosecution for any crimes committed during the Arab Spring demonstrations in which many protesters were killed by Saleh's security forces. Later, Hadi was elected president but was the sole candidate. Saleh has continued to influence Yemeni politics and when the Houthi's occupied the capital, Saleh provided support with troops loyal to him. He has continued that support since the Houthis took power after failing to negotiate a new government acceptable to them. Hadi escaped from Sanaa to Aden where he tried to set up a government but was forced out of the city to exile in Ryadh Saudi Arabia. Recently some ministers have returned to Aden. The airport is now open again.

Adel Shuja, a leader of Saleh's Congress party said:"There are negotiations in Cairo between the leaders of the Congress party and diplomats from the United States, Britain and the UAE in order to find a peaceful solution to the crisis in Yemen...These negotiations have made significant progress so far."

These negotiations are taking place just as local forces, loyal to the exiled government, have made gains in the south taking over the port city of Aden and reopening the airport at Aden. The loss of the port happened within just a few days suggesting that perhaps Saleh had ordered his forces to withdraw.

Saleh was able to rule Yemen for 33 years by playing off rival armed and tribal groups against one another. He may be at it again, even though before he relinquished power he was almost killed in an attack on the presidential palace and sought medical treatment in Saudi Arabia and the US. The Houthis will be unable to hold territory in the south without help from Saleh. However, they also had been in talks earlier in Oman with members of the Southern Movement who are active in the fight against them in Aden. Oman has been key to mediation between the warring groups. There may be a concerted effort on the part of both rebel groups to reach a political solution as they realize continued military actions are devastating the country without much hope of final military success for either side. There will probably be increased pressure to give the south more autonomy. The separatist Southern Movement that has been a key force opposed to the Houthis often clashed with the former Hadi government. They now have significant numbers of armed fighters who will demand some political power in any new government.

Yemen government-in-exile sends ministers to southern city of Aden

Several ministers of the government-in-exile of Mansour Hadi arrived by helicopter from Saudi Arabia in preparation for the revival of institutions of state in the city of Aden.

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Al Jazeera reports several ministers, along with top intelligence officials of the Hadi government, arrived in Aden after forces loyal to Hadi recaptured Aden from the Houthis. The photo accompanying the Al Jazeera articles shows forces in Aden said to be loyal to Hadi. It is a loyalty of convenience. The flag these loyalists are flying is not that of Yemen but of the Republic of South Yemen. These are members of a Southern Movement militia who are separatists. They will use the situation to promote their own cause and not that of Hadi, whose proposal to divide Yemen into six federal regions they reject. Al Jazeera notes: On Wednesday, Popular Resistance fighters - a southern militia that has been the mainstay of support for Hadi - recaptured the provincial government headquarters in the Mualla district opposite Aden's main commercial port, Ali al-Ahmadi, a militia spokesman, told the AFP news agency.They also advanced in Aden's Crater district, where a presidential palace is located, he said.It is not clear whether reporters or analysts are stupid or deliberately fail to notice the irony that Aden is being liberated by separatists, the same group that Hadi repressed and whose government the group often clashed with. What is happening is a process of possible division of Yemen into a north controlled by Houthi and Saleh loyalists and Hadi in collaboration with the Southern Movement ruling the South. Such an alliance would be no stranger than that of Saleh loyalists with the Houthis. As the appended photo shows, the Houthis are still in parts of Aden and have set sections of the refinery on fire.

One of the arriving officials said: "[Exiled President] Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi delegated this group to return to Aden to work to prepare the security situation and ensure stability ahead of a revival of the institutions of state in Aden," .Hadi tried this before and was driven out. Hadi is being cautious this time and is not returning himself as yet. He will stay safe and sound in Ryadh, Saudi Arabia. Forces loyal to Hadi retook the airport recently and much of the nearby diplomatic district. However retreating rebels pounded the district with rocket fire. Rockets also set fire to an oil refinery.

Exiled vice-president said on Facebook that his government would try to restore life to Aden: "The government announces the liberation of the province of Aden on the first day of Eid al-Fitr which falls on July 17, We will work to restore life in Aden and all the liberated cities, to restore water and electricity." The Houthis claim that there are still clashes in several parts of Aden.

The offensive in Aden comes after a ceasefire declared by the UN failed to take effect. Saudi Arabia continued its bombing campaign just hours after the ceasefire was to come into force. UN special envoy Ismail Ahmed claimed he had assurances that both sides would agree to the "humanitarian pause" of about a week to last until the end of Ramadan. Saudi Arabian officials , nevertheless, said that they had never agreed to the ceasefire. While the UN chief Ban Ki-moon expressed disappointment at the failure of the ceasefire, he did not suggest that Saudi Arabia should be punished or sanctioned. Saudi Arabia is one of the good guys so there is little international condemnation, even of the rhetorical type that involves no punishment.

The UN has declared a level-3 humanitarian emergency in Yemen, the highest possible. The UN estimates since late March more than 3,200 people have been killed since the Saudi-led airstrikes began against the Houthis who have taken over much of the west of Yemen. More than 21 million people, over 80 percent of the population are said to need aid. 13 million face food shortages, and access to water is difficult for 9.4 million people. The need for a ceasefire is urgent but apparently it is more important for Saudi Arabia to continue the battle. As the appended video from Sanaa the capital shows, there must still be some gas available there.

Yemen peace talks to be held in Geneva on May 28

The UN has set May 28 to begin Yemen peace talks in Geneva but only one party to the conflict may attend. The Hadi government based in Saudi Arabia demands that the rebel Houthis give up some of the territory they have taken as a condition of taking part.

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Riad Yassine, the foreign minister, at first insisted the Houthis would need to implement all of UN Security Council Resolution 2216 in order for the Hadi government to agree to talks. Resolution 2216 was passed back on April 15th:Adopting resolution 2216 (2015) by 14 affirmative votes to none against, with one abstention (Russian Federation), the Council also demanded that the Houthis, withdraw from all areas seized during the latest conflict, relinquish arms seized from military and security institutions, cease all actions falling exclusively within the authority of the legitimate Government of Yemen and fully implement previous Council resolutions.

In other words, after driving the Hadi government into exile and setting up their own government as well as occupying much of the western part of Yemen, the Houthis are to give up the territory they have occupied and cede power to the government in exile operating from the Saudi capital, Ryadh.

Sometimes, it seems as if the UN operates in a different reality as it ignores what is happening on the ground. Instead it publishes moralistic rhetoric and issues demands or resolutions that are not kept. However, in this case the UN is simply pimping for the big powers that count in the area — the Gulf Cooperation Council including Saudi Arabia plus the U.S. Hadi is their man and even though he has been driven out of Yemen, even from his refuge in the south in Aden, he is still regarded as the rightful president. He has little real power on the ground in Yemen but that matters little if the legitimate use of force in Yemen is the coalition bombing Yemen to bits and any groups fighting the Houthis, who are claimed to be loyal to the Hadi government. Some in the south fighting the Houthis are probably loyal to the southern separatist movement and many fighting the Houthis in the east are loyal to Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula and at war with the Hadi government.

Powerful governments often believe that their power ensures that they can create the situation they want. In this case Gulf Arab countries including Saudi Arabia believe that the return of the Hadi government can be attained using their superior military power. As a result, they think it reasonable that negotiation means the surrender of their opponents instead of the each side recognizing the interests of the other side.

However, even Yassine appears to realize his original precondition did not have the slightest chance of being accepted. He later suggested that at least the Houthis should give back to the Hadi government a major city such as Aden or Taez. In the past, the Saudis have ruled out peace talks without a full disarmament and surrender. Yassine said a withdrawal from some captured territory by the Houthis would be a sign of goodwill. The April UN resolution placed an arms embargo on the rebels and also imposed sanctions on the son of Saleh the former president. It reiterated sanctions imposed last November on the ex-president and also two Houthi leaders. Given these moves it is not clear who would be able to negotiate on behalf of the Houthis or Saleh, who with his son controls much of the Yemeni armed forces. Saleh is allied with the Houthis.

Yemen's ambassador to the UN Khaled Alyemany said the talks in Geneva would be designed "to convince the Houthis to give up what they are doing and be part of the solution." These do not sound like "peace talks" but surrender talks. Given the situation on the ground there does not seem to be any motivation for the Houthis to surrender. Certainly many Yemenis hate the Houthis and want the conflict to stop but continued bombing by the Saudis directly supported by Hadi and other politicians from their safe haven in the Saudi capital will hardly generate support for the return of the previous government. For talks to have any chance of success they must begin with neither side placing preconditions on participation. Both sides have set preconditions for participation.

The Houthis have suggested as a condition for their attending that the two sides agree to the Peace and Partnership agreement the Hadi government signed when the Houthis took over the capital last September. The Houthis said: "The only way to solve the political problem is dialogue in a neutral country over what has been agreed upon in advance in the peace and partnership agreement," Maybe no one will show up for the peace talks.

The agreement did not result in a government the Houthis would approve and Hadi resigned. He was virtually under house arrest but escaped to Aden, claimed he was still president, and tried to set up a rival administration to the Houthis who took power when the negotiations failed. Hadi was driven out of Aden and took refuge in Ryadh where he enlisted Arab countries to try to put him back in power.

UN imposes sanctions on Houthis as conflict continues in Yemen

Sanaa - In a sign that the Saudi-led bombing campaign and offensive against Houthi rebels is not going well, the newly minted vice-president appointed by the internationally recognized president Mansour Hadi has urged the Houthi fighters to end their offensive.

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Vice-President Khaled Bahah urged the Houthis to end their offensive in the south, particularly in the port city of Aden. He said that this could be a good will gesture that could lead to peace initiatives. He does not mention that Iran has already proposed peace initiatives. Of course Iran has no right to propose peace initiatives. As Abdulrahman al-Rashed, described as a veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist puts it: If the Houthis and deposed president Saleh are serious about a reconciliation, then they know who to turn to - to the Gulf Cooperation Council who represents the regional and familial system that’s closer to Yemen.

Of course the Gulf Cooperation Council is the same group that supports the Saudi-led bombing and offensive against the Houthis, and of which Saudi Arabia is a leading member. With opinions such as this it is clear why al-Rashed has such high status as a journalist.

Bahah is an obvious figure to put forth this apparently conciliatory gesture since he was accepted by the Houthis as a candidate for prime minister back in January during a failed attempt to form a government acceptable to the Houthis. Hadi no doubt realizes he has a very tarnished brand and little support, and is attempting to bolster his legitimacy through appointing Bahah and have him propose this move.No doubt, Hadi learned these types of tricks while he himself was Vice President under former president Saleh. Saleh is now allied with the Houthis but while in power he continually attacked them. Saleh ceded power to Hadi after a deal brokered by that familial system al-Rashed references that gave Saleh and his cronies immunity from crimes committed during the Arab Spring uprisings in which many protesters were killed. As with Hadi, Bahah speaks from the safety of the Saudi capital Ryadh. All this is no doubt done with the approval of the Saudis. The Saudis would be happy if the Houthis withdraw from the south and Aden. The Houthis no doubt might even agree but would surely want action in return such as the cessation of bombing and a ceasefire by militia fighting them while negotiating a government acceptable to each side. Of course none of this will have any effect on the battle of Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula(AQAP) and its advance s against the Houthis often allied with local Sunni tribes. Bahah also called on all troops and security force personnel to accept the command of the Hadi government and protect the country.

A perceptive article in the International Institute for Strategic Studies(IISS) notes that there is an irony in Saleh's support for the Houthis since he was their mortal enemy during his own presidency. However, Saleh wants to promote the military and political power of his son in opposition to Hadi and those loyal to him in the armed forces.. There is always the possibility of his changing sides if the right deal were offered to him. The pro-Hadi forces are even weaker it would seem then they appear to be since those fighting the Houthis in the south in many cases are local separatist militias who do not want to be part of a Hadi government either: As the IISS article puts it: " The role of southern militias in restoring Hadi is highly contentious, since they have consistently advocated independence from northern Yemen. This suggests that they are fighting to secure territory to pave the way for secession. This prospect has become increasingly viable since the war united southern factions, while airdrops of weapons may finally give them a military advantage. Southern militias have in fact framed their role as defending south Yemen rather than affirming Hadi’s legitimacy, thus casting doubt over the very notion of Aden as the ‘government’s last stronghold’."

In the video appended below the tank seen at the first is flying not the Yemeni flag but the flag of the southern separatist movement:

The UN has long been a supporter of the "familial system," which also includes the US. The UN Security Council had already imposed sanctions on Saleh and two Houthi leaders way back in November of last year and the other important family member the US dutifully followed suit:"The United States hit Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and two Houthi rebel commanders with sanctions Monday, two days after Saleh walked out on the new government. The US Treasury said it was blacklisting Saleh, Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim and Abd al-Khaliq al-Huthi “for engaging in acts that directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security or stability of Yemen”.The UN Security Council has now imposed an arms embargo on the Houthi rebels and also Saleh and his son. The US again followed suit by imposing sanctions on Saleh and two Houthi leaders once again:"The U.S. Treasury Department named Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, and leading backer Ahmed Ali Saleh, son of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, to its blacklist, freezing any assets they might have on US property and forbidding Americans from dealings with them."These actions indicate that at present the "family" are not really interested in a negotiated solution so much as an imposed solution backed by military force and sanctions. Perhaps the Houthis will give in but this is doubtful unless they are offered more to give up their struggle. No matter what happens, AQAP is gaining considerable ground in the conflict and southern separatists will be in a position to push their demands.

The UN answers to the demands of the family as is shown in the appended video. Jamal Benomar who has worked tirelessly for a political solution was still attempting to do so but this ran afoul of the desires of the family and so he had to resign, to move on to another assignment,.

More problems in Yemen with Special Forces mutiny

As if Yemen did not have enough problems dealing with rebel Houthis and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula(AQAP) there has now been a mutiny within the elite Special Forces.

Gunfire was reported within the headquarters' building. The Yemen presidential guard has cordoned off the entire area. The mutineers are demanding their new commander Mohammed Mansour al-Ghadraa be removed from his post. Rumors abound that former president Ali Saleh is behind the mutiny. His relatives had led the forces until being ousted when the present president, Mansour Hadi, had purged many of them. However, Saleh still has considerable support in parts of the armed forces.
A later report claims that the mutiny has ended with the appointment of a new commander: Yemen's official SABA news agency reported on Friday that Interior Minister Galal al-Rowaishan has appointed Abdel-Razak al-Marouni as a new commander of the Special Forces. The SABA report made no mention of Mohammed Mansour al-Ghadraa, the commander who led the unit until Thursday's apparent rebellion against his authority. Al-Gadraa had been appointed just in September.
The mutineers shouted "leave, leave" and tried to storm al-Ghadraa's office. Saleh is alleged to be helping Houthis who have occupied considerable areas of Yemen including occupying the capital in September. Hadi agreed to a new government of technocrats but the Houthis objected to some of those appointed. The Houthis are also angry because the UN has sanctioned two of their commanders as well as Saleh. Ironically, during the presidency of Saleh the Houthi's often fought the Saleh government until a truce in 2010 after six years of battle.
  In the deal that convinced Saleh to transfer power to his then vice-president Mansour Hadi, Saleh, and his relatives were granted immunity from any trial for crimes they might have committed when in power. His government killed many protesters. His party also kept a share of power. The ruling party, the General People's Congress, is split between Hadi and Saleh supporters. The Congress moved to dump Hadi as party leader and replaced him with a senior aide. This action was in direct response to the UN action. Some party leaders in the south of Yemen have claimed that the party's dismissal of Hadi was "void." The government however has problems ruling in the south where separatists have used the Houthi advances as an opportunity to advance their own agenda of creating a separate state in the south such as had existed previously.
The Houthis and the Hadi government are also fighting against Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula(AQAP) fighters in central areas of Yemen. Local tribes in some areas are allied with the group in fighting off the Houthi advance. The US has continued bombing raids against the group which launches constant terror attacks against the Hadi government.
AQAP itself is facing internal divisions as some of its units have sworn allegiance to the Islamic State a group that was ejected from Al Qaeda. A group in Egypt the Ansar Beit al-Magdis has also pledged allegiance and there is local support for IS in Libya as well. A video released by AQAP pledged continued allegiance to bin Laden's successor Ayman al-Zawahri rather than al-Baghdadi who is leader of the Islamic State and demands that all Muslims pledge allegiance to his new caliphate.
  Meanwhile in light of the deteriorating security conditions in Yemen, the Philippine government is asking all Filipinos to leave the country as soon as they are able. The Philippine Embassy said: “A total ban has been imposed on all travels to Yemen,” The embassy has set up a Crisis Management Team in Sanaa to assist Filipinos in leaving the country.

Yemen slow to pursue al-Awlaki.

It would seem the U.S. just expects every country to immediately go along with what the U.S. wants, in this case killing or capturing al-Awlaki. Yemen for its part has plenty of problems of its own and is certainly not anxious to stir up another hornet's nest and face the wrath of al-Awlaki's tribe. Saleh the president of Yemen is a survivor and is not going to jump when the U.S. commands if it means likely assassination. This is from AsiaTimes.

Yemen dithers as US hunts to kill
By Oliver Holmes

SANA'A - Yemen is dithering as the United States intensifies its anti-terrorism campaign by authorizing the killing of radical Muslim cleric, Anwar al-Awlaki. In an act of defiance, the Yemeni government initially refused to hunt Awlaki, saying it would not take action until intelligence from the US proved he was a terrorist.

Last week, the Yemeni government appeared to have reversed its decision. Yemen's Defense Ministry said on Thursday that Awlaki was being pursued for alleged links to al-Qaeda, a move that could stir trouble in the South Arabian state.

Indecisiveness from Sana'a exemplifies the delicate balance the Yemeni government has to maintain. On one side, Sana'a is being



pressured by the international community to step up efforts against al-Qaeda; on the other, President Ali Abdullah Saleh wants to appease tribal leaders and a nation weary of foreign interference by proving he is not a puppet of the West. Yemenis warn of potential dangers if Sana'a were to cooperate with the Americans in a lethal strike against Awlaki, whom many see as a preacher rather than a terrorist.

"Killing Awlaki will create huge anti-American sentiment in Yemen," Hasan Abdul Warith, a prominent Yemeni columnist and widely respected intellectual, told Asia Times Online in a telephone interview. "Yemeni people will never accept such policies," he added. "Even if I understand [US President Barack] Obama's decision, as an Arab I feel that the decision is a sign of American arrogance."

Conflict and Repression in Yemen

This is another ongoing conflict without much world attention being devoted to it even though the government is carrying out a horrendous campaign against several different rebel groups. No doubt the US considers Yemen is doing its part to promote the war on terror but it would seem that the government does not worry about the war on terror so much as smashing any resistance to its own corrupt rule. Terrorists who support the government are allowed free reign. U.S. taxpayers seem to be quite blase about spending money on regimes such as this while there is no money to fund more health care back home..

Aid Won't Fix The Crisis in Yemen
Jane NovakJuly 26, 2009On July 17, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh celebrated the 31st anniversary of his ascension to power. The Sana'a regime, perverted by corruption, is largely unable to provide public services, including water, electricity, security, medical care and education. A third of Yemenis—7 million people—are malnourished. Police and military units act as enforcers for corrupt officials. The judiciary dispenses political retribution. Torture in Yemeni jails is systemic and brutal.On his anniversary, Saleh published an essay calling for dialog and tolerance. The same week, 18 protesters were killed by police, a journalist sentenced to jail and an opposition party prevented from holding its conference. A four-year rebellion in the north and a two-year uprising in the south threaten to engulf the nation in violence. Known al Qaeda operatives roam the capital freely, and teenage suicide bombers routinely target elderly tourists.Yemen's donors believe stabilizing President Saleh's regime will thwart the devolution of Yemen into a failed state and an al Qaeda safe haven. U.S. aid proposed for 2010 is at the highest levels in years. The Department of Defense allocated $66 million in military aid, mostly for patrol boats and armored pick-ups. Congress' Foreign Operation Appropriation bill includes an additional $15 million in military aid and $40 million in development and economic aid. Other humanitarian aid is channeled through USAID. However, increased funding to Yemen is a questionable strategy that may escalate instability.....Yemen already receives more aid than it can effectively absorb. Donors pledged $4.6 billion in 2006. Yemen declared "renewed commitment to urgent reforms." Years later, the state is still drawing up implementation plans for much of the funds. The lack of progress was a significant disappointment, yet predictable in an environment of rampant corruption. Billions in aid, oil revenue and other state funds are embezzled, stolen, diverted or misdirected, without consequence. Absent strict oversight, aid is subject to elite capture and often does not reach intended recipients.U.S. military aid intended for border security may wind up fueling atrocities. The Yemeni military bombed cities and villages heavily in the northern Sa'ada province while countering a rebellion that began in 2004. The Sa'ada War, dubbed "Yemen's Darfur," forced nearly 200,000 citizens to flee their homes. The government blocked food, aid and medicine to 700,000 Sa'ada residents in "an act that appears to constitute an illegal collective punishment," Human Rights Watch found. Officials explained the deliberate starvation was meant to pressure villagers to turn over rebel fighters.The small band of Zaidi rebels—triggered by political exclusion—grew to thousands. They claim they are acting in self-defense against a Wahabbi-inspired campaign of Shiite eradication. The Yemeni government insists the rebels seek to re-establish a theocratic monarchy.The latest ceasefire required the release of arbitrarily arrested Hashemite men and boys, but hundreds are still in jail. With the government's mediation committee headed by a major arms dealer, sporadic clashes indicate the war will likely resume and may spread beyond its previous boundaries to engulf the nation. The International Crisis Group recommends that to preserve the fragile peace, external parties "refrain from military assistance to the parties in conflict, including the Yemeni government."In South Yemen, massacres of protesters have become routine. The "southern mobility movement" began in 2007, calling for equal rights denied after 1990's unity of North and South Yemen. The government's response to the unrest was to shoot into the crowds and arrest thousands, sparking a cycle of civil unrest. Dozens of citizens were "deliberately killed or died as a result of excessive use of force by the security forces during peaceful protests," Amnesty International said. In June, there were 42 demonstrations, 17 injuries and five deaths. On July 23, a particularly bloody day, 18 protesters were killed during a demonstration in Zanzibar, Abyan. Protesters are now demanding southern independence and allege the unified Yemeni state is illegal under international law. With no end in sight, U.S. military aid—even trucks—may inadvertently facilitate the civilian slaughter.Saleh's regime is also engaged in a drastic campaign of media repression. Journalists have been banned from Sa'ada since 2004 and jailed for writing about the war. As unrest escalates in the south, so does the punishment of journalists who report the news. The non-governmental media is being forced into bankruptcy, court and prison. Bumping foreign aid in the midst of this massive media repression sends the wrong message from the U.S. to the Yemeni people.The Committee to Protect Journalists condemned the "months-long assault on the media" where "physical assaults have been coupled with dozens of arrests of independent journalists, editors and bloggers." The government banned seven independent newspapers, including the long-established al-Ayyam, forcing hundreds of journalists out of work. Police disrupted demonstrations supporting al Ayyam with live fire. Dozens of Yemeni news websites are blocked. In Yemen, al Qaeda has greater Internet freedom than reformers.Perhaps the fundamental question for the donor community, especially the U.S., is how to best secure their citizens from the growing terror threat from Yemen. A more active and visible presence of al Qaeda heightens concerns about Yemen's potential implosion. Since 2007, nearly a dozen so-called al Qaeda attacks targeted tourists and foreign interests, including the U.S. Embassy. However, the ecosystems that nurture al Qaeda in Yemen and regionally are supported by Yemeni state resources, as are a variety of criminal enterprises. The idea that President Saleh put the fight against al Qaeda on the back burner because of civil unrest is misguided. Al Qaeda thrived in Yemen because it was nurtured, not neglected.The final president of South Yemen, Ali Salem al Beidh, said the Sana'a regime is creating regional crisis, "not only in our occupied South Yemen but also in Somalia, as well as in the weapon markets in Yemen and in the Al-Qaeda Organization cells in Saudi Arabia. It ranges from launching an air bridge to ensure the flow of jihadist terrorism to Iraq, to sending Yemeni official equipment, arms and ammunition to the Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, to controlling the outlets of weapon and drugs trafficking and money laundering."Yemen's counter-terror policies are farcical and include releasing convicted terrorists, pretending terrorists are in jail or dead, and other elaborate ploys to deceive Western nations. Saleh deployed jihadists during Yemen's 1994 civil war and in the recent Sa'ada War and appears ready to unleash these terrorists against protesters in the south. Local media reported numerous al Qaeda training camps within or facilitated by the Yemeni military. Scores of terrorists receive military salaries. Fears that without Saleh the resulting vacuum will allow terrorist entrenchment ignores the reality on the ground.There is nothing to suggest that the regime would sincerely battle al Qaeda if it rid itself of other distractions. A truce in 2003 between the Yemeni al Qaeda and the regime led to several years where terror activity was externally directed. Reports indicate that Saleh requested additional jihadists from Ayman al Zawahiri late in 2008. Within months, an influx of foreign jihadists began amassing in Sa'ada. The survival of the regime hinges on fundamentalist support.President Saleh uses jihadists and the takfist ideology against his political rivals. Moderates, intellectuals, reformers, Shiite rebels, secularists and southern socialists are all apostates according to Saleh. The Defense Ministry published a fatwa legitimizing jihad in defense of the state. Hardcore Salafi preachers issued a 2006 fatwa that opposition to Saleh was un-Islamic. The government supports the spread of extremist schools and risks creating a generation of fanatics. The weakening of Saleh's grip would necessarily bring about an enhanced political pluralism and balance of ideologies. Yemen historically is a pluralistic and tolerant society.The structural remedy to corruption, violence against civilians and extremist thinking is a free press. Good governance cannot exist without it. Dialog among citizens occurs in the media. If there is one lever for reform, it is the Yemeni press. It is imperative to tie necessary aid to the ability of journalists to perform their jobs without retribution. The Yemeni press heroically weathers the punishment for performing its watchdog role. But it is on the brink of extinction.One trigger of instability (or perhaps progress) in Yemen is the administration's visible failure to reform. As the elite are unmasked as epically corrupt, public discontent grows. If the U.S. wants to support Yemen's "nascent democracy," it must realize that popular will can leverage reform, as donor aid cannot. Any successful anti-corruption campaign results in the displacement of the corrupt elite, thus reform in Yemen is systematically undermined from within.For over a decade, Saleh's toxic dictatorship ravaged Yemen's human and natural resources, institutions and economy. Artificially prolonging the Sana'a regime is a strategy that failed already. Yemen, in all or in part, may transition from authoritarianism to responsible governance, and perhaps today is closer than ever. While the U.S. does not endorse or support a leadership change in Yemen, neither should it actively thwart the natural democratic progression of the state. Throwing out the tyrant is standard procedure in a revolution.Jane Novak is an American journalist and blogger well known in Yemen. The author of over 60 articles on Yemen's internal affairs, her website armiesofliberation.com has been banned in Yemen since 2006.